FAC668 - Game Over

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:50 pm UTC

SDK wrote:1) You say Time Panda is "slightly scummy, especially if flicky/SDK is also scum". Does it follow the other way - if she's scum, am I? Is that logic based only on flicky changes places in her reads list?


No, that was a one-way read because of her sudden promotion of flicky about the time there was a bandwagon developing against him. Made me think she was trying to find a way to vote for someone else in order to defend scumbuddy!flicky.

SDK wrote:2) Can you explain your adnapemit scum read? You rundown what she'd done this game, but don't talk about why that makes you suspicious. I'm reading the same thing and ending up with my strongest town read, so...


Have to reconstruct what I was thinking then since we know now that she's town, but...

Spoiler:
D1
Post 1: early game stuff
Post 2: RV SirG, agrees with his claim criteria
Post 3: unvotes RV, discussion of IIWAC

so far pretty standard stuff

Post 4: reads post. puts herself on it, which is weird but might be an idiosyncracy. Puts Madge, me, and dim on top with flicky at bottom with Sabrar. Order of the middle was fungible since she has 4 players at neutral.

Amusingly, the amount of detail on hers looks about the same as my first reads list, yet dimochka felt mine was vote worthy while being, if not okay, at least more charitable about hers.

Post 5: discussion with Sabrar about meta and Carlington
Post 6: second town-to-scum list, promotion of flicky to the spongy middle with an admission of little justification for it. demotes matt from neutral to scum and votes him again with nothing to back it up.

adnapemit wrote:My list has changed slightly.

For a very loose definition of slightly

D2
Post 7: post hoc justification of matt's demotion and vote and some others. The post she quotes and the reasoning behind it don't track in my opinion, she's calling matt scummy for calling someone out for what looked to him as role-fishing. She called SirG scummy for agreeing with her scummiest read, and was a lot more serious about Sabrar being the last vote on Carlington that I figured that event deserved.

Post 6 and post 7 show a degree of arbitrariness and incoherence that I found scummy

Post 8: Couple of responses, and her auditions of scum teams. ends up with 5 possibiities, which is a third of the total possible combinations, and also includes all 6 players other than her. finishes by voting matt
Post 9: Responding to Sabrar about her auditions
Post 10: Answering SDK re her read on matt, sticks to her vote

Kind of tailing off here. Basically, it was about mid D2 that I decided to vote for her, and I didn't see anything to shift my opinion.


SDK wrote:3) You had a scum read on flicky, but don't mention it when talking about me. Is that for sportmanship, or is there another reason?


If filcky was/you are town and the way flicky playing was just nervous/scummy looking town I want you to have a chance to play as town as you'd most likely be more confident. If flicky was/you are scum, I figure I can (hopefully) pick that up independent of what I thought about flicky. I suppose sportsmanship is close to what it is, but that may not be the exact word.

SDK wrote:PS: Don't give Sabrar a hard time for posting. He's the only one really moving this game forward.


Wasn't giving him a hard time, the bit about loving the new notification system was supposed to be lighthearted. Agree with you that he's been the motor for this game.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:57 pm UTC

Thanks for answering my questions. I like that post for the most part.

What are you thinking now? Who's your scum team of choice?
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby dimochka » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:05 am UTC

Hi, I'm not back from work yet but will be in about 3-4 hours and will then respond to everything.

My list, considering those currently alive, is (town --> scum): sdk sabrar madge moody. However, I don't really see a madge/moody team. So I'm at a bit of a loss there.

@SDK - that Madge post doesn't really bother me. It's definitely not a view I support but I kind of expect it given her dislike of D1 and lack of content (and to some degree lack of paying attention to the game, although that may be my perception).

Feel free to leave questions for me and I'll get them answered when I get home tonight. And sucks that people didn't listen to me about matt, because I it looks like what I said in my last analysis of him was what likely happened.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:29 am UTC

dimochka, if I was scum, 1) how would you feel about your read on me, and 2) who would be my buddy?
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 26, 2016 4:27 am UTC

SDK wrote:Why do you think a moody/dimochka team is unlikely?
I can't remember any bussing on these forums when the scumteam had only 2 members, plus moody just complained last game about always being the one to be sacrificed for the greater good so I'm quite sure he would not be okay with a plan that involves being lynched to clear dimochka. And bussing without partner's permission is very rude imo. Of course other players might have different ideas about this.

dimochka wrote:However, I don't really see a madge/moody team.
Could you elaborate on this? Why do you think they can't be a team?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:58 am UTC

OK I swear I posted the post below, but I can't seem to see it in the thread. Sorry if this is a double post, I am a bit confused in general.
~~~
SDK wrote:Madge, I'm confused by this post. You say " I feel like getting a flip on Flicky would be useful as it would tell us if the people on the Carlington train were likely to be scum tactically voting", but then go on to say that you think flicky is town. I guess you're just thinking through it as you type, but I have trouble following the train of thought. Can you explain why you think flicky is town?


The part about flicky flip / tactically voting scum was, "if flicky flips scum, we can look among the carlington voters for his scummate"

My part about thinking flicky (now SDK) is 15% likely to bs scum is not good anymore. Now anyone-who-isn't-me (or to town reading this, anyone-who-isn't-you) has a 50% base probability of being scum. So if I think flicky SDK is less likely than average, he'd go town to say 40% .

Personally I think I want to lynch Sabrar, or dim.


SCUMMY
Dim
Sabrar
Moody
SDK
LESS SCUMMY

eagle eyed people will see dim is at the top of my scum list but i advocate a sabrar lynch. i think a sabrar lynch might be more useful. that said if we mislynch we're dead right? so maybe i should stick to dim. I don't know.

it's very scary because if one townie votes the wrong person the scum will jump on it and it'll all be over. eek.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:10 am UTC

@Madge: please tell us what this read-list is based on. We only see your conclusion but not your reasoning.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:17 am UTC

Random thought of the day: I can't decide if SDK's questions are very townie because he's actively scum-hunting or very scummy because he wants to divert attention away from himself.

@SDK:
- if you were the only scum remaining, who would you have killed N2 (and why)?
- if that player happened to be your scum-partner after all, who would have been your next choice?
- in what extent (if at all) do you take into account the opinion of confirmed townies (i.e. the dead players)?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:24 pm UTC

By process of elimination, dim pretty much has to be scum IMO. Already said about Madge, but I would have to reconsider if both she and I are alive D4. I've been putting Sabrar at likely townie for a while due to volume of posting and his continual push for content from everyone, suppose there could be a heart of darkness behind that. Holdover from flicky/difficulty on SDK makes me most concerned if he's scum #2. Condensing:

town
Madge
Sabrar
SDK
dim
scum
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:01 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Random thought of the day: I can't decide if SDK's questions are very townie because he's actively scum-hunting or very scummy because he wants to divert attention away from himself.

It's the first one.

Sabrar wrote:- if you were the only scum remaining, who would you have killed N2 (and why)?

If it was 1v5 going into Night 2? Probably you. I tend to prioritize the people who are actually pushing the game.

Sabrar wrote:- if that player happened to be your scum-partner after all, who would have been your next choice?

adnapemit. No one else in this game is particularly scary, so I'd go with the townie player, especially if I still had a partner as you say here.

Sabrar wrote:- in what extent (if at all) do you take into account the opinion of confirmed townies (i.e. the dead players)?

Some. That's more to do with the fact that they're confirmed town rather than asking why they were killed, if that's what you're getting at. Basically, it depends mostly on my estimation of their scum hunting ability. I don't want to sound like an asshole, but I'm a better player than most so I'm usually going by my own reads regardless, often using another player's logic as a jumping point.



I need to reread this game. My gut is driving me crazy, telling me Sabrar and dimochka is the scumteam despite my brain's insistence that they're the stronger town reads of you folks.

Madge, I need you to post more so I can read you. Talk about anything, as long as you're giving opinions.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:25 pm UTC

@SDK: your post just pushed my paranoia into overdrive but before I make any further assumptions please tell me if you considered the Doctor in your responses to the first 2 questions.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:48 pm UTC

No.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:48 pm UTC

That is, no, I did not.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:49 pm UTC

Would it change anything?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:52 pm UTC

We didn't even know there was a doctor in the game yet, so no, I don't think so. matt's speculation on adnapemit wasn't very convincing (to me at least), so I don't think there was much to go on if you wanted to hit the doctor specifically either. I suppose if I was scum I might have been looking for such things, but nothing stood out to me.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:57 pm UTC

Ok, that's a more townie response. Will collect my thoughts.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:44 pm UTC

SDK wrote:Probably you. I tend to prioritize the people who are actually pushing the game.
So basically this reply screamed to me "Look at me, I can't be scum because I didn't kill you! Look at how townie I am!"
SDK wrote:adnapemit. No one else in this game is particularly scary, so I'd go with the townie player, especially if I still had a partner as you say here.
Reasoning feels off to me, scum shouldn't kill who they state themselves is townie, rather someone who is considered by actual Town to be townie. Then again maybe SDK wasn't thinking from a scum's viewpoint here.
SDK wrote:I don't want to sound like an asshole, but I'm a better player than most so I'm usually going by my own reads regardless,
This could go either way.

I got bad vibes from that first response, however the clarification about the Doctor seems townie to me as SDK seems to have considered only PR-hunting in his reply and not who the Doctor might have protected, something I think scum would definitely be worried about. Overall it looks to me that SDK didn't adopt a truly scummy mindset when answering, so I'm a bit more comfortable in trusting him. Or he's as good a player as he brags to be...

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby dimochka » Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:48 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SDK wrote:Why do you think a moody/dimochka team is unlikely?
I can't remember any bussing on these forums when the scumteam had only 2 members, plus moody just complained last game about always being the one to be sacrificed for the greater good so I'm quite sure he would not be okay with a plan that involves being lynched to clear dimochka.

This really stands out to me. Why are you advocating for moody? I'm sure if this bothered him he would've told us just the same.

SDK wrote:dimochka, if I was scum, 1) how would you feel about your read on me, and 2) who would be my buddy?

1) I'd obviously be worried, but given the attention that flicky was getting for essentially having no opinion makes me think that of the people currently alive he's most likely town.
2) Funny enough, nobody, although moody is least unlikely. You had too much discussion with Sabrar to warrant being buddies, and Madge would not have posted that "well flicky is the best we have given lack of discussion". And I obviously know that it's me.
But - Look at moody's response to flicky D1 - he had him as most scummy without actual analysis (as I said before, it was solely based on who did/didn't vote, and I don't see him putting his partner last that way). This is essentially why I don't think you're scum, plus the content you've been pushing for / providing helps.

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:However, I don't really see a madge/moody team.
Could you elaborate on this? Why do you think they can't be a team?

As I was re-reading to response, I found this D1:
moody7277 wrote:Also, if Madge survives N1, I will be voting her so hard.

I don't actually think it was serious, but quite on point. However, he had Madge as fairly townie and also protected her in this post:
moody7277 wrote:On SDK's question: General gut feeling on Madge viv a vis content and tone. Post by post analysis to see how well that works:
[Some quotes]
Post 4 looks most townie to me, rest is Madge's usual behavior. Since I'm a bit over 90% sure about her, what I said in my previous post stands.

This may be gut feeling, but if either got lynched it would be an easy way to tie them together, so I don't think if they were both scum he would say this. I mean obviously a lot of this is gut feeling...

So I think the most likely teams at this point from my point of view:
1. moody + sabrar
2. madge + sabrar
3. i guess moody + madge
4. SDK with someone, somehow...
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:59 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:This really stands out to me. Why are you advocating for moody? I'm sure if this bothered him he would've told us just the same.

I don't follow you here.
1. Where do you see that I'm 'advocating for moody'? I'm only explaining my reasoning why I find one specific scum-pair unlikely.
2. Why the hell would moody tell us that he's bothered by his scumbuddy bussing him?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby dimochka » Tue Jul 26, 2016 6:34 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I don't follow you here.
1. Where do you see that I'm 'advocating for moody'? I'm only explaining my reasoning why I find one specific scum-pair unlikely.
2. Why the hell would moody tell us that he's bothered by his scumbuddy bussing him?

I know which game you speak of where moody wasn't happy to be lynched to clear someone else. With that being said, every game is different, and if moody has an issue with being lynched to clear someone else, he should say as much. ESPECIALLY when we're in LYLO, and therefore a plan that lynches town to clear someone else would mean a loss. That's what I'm talking about.

OK wait let me try to make this clearer. You are likely mentioning Pen Pals, where moody was town and wasn't happy about being lynched for the greater good. Ok, makes perfect sense. But we weren't in LYLO, and therefore this strategy still made sense because it nearly guaranteed town win.

We are in a different game and in LYLO. If moody is town, we cannot lynch him because we will lose. So him complaining about being sacrificed for the greater good here is irrelevant. We don't have the luxury of lynching for the greater good now. So I don't see why you're bringing this up, unless I misunderstood you, in which case I'd love a better explanation as I simply don't see how those two cases tie.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:03 pm UTC

Yes, I was referring to Pen Pal and I think the situation is similar (at least for the scenario that I considered). Let me break it down into steps.
1. You attacked moody hard already in D2 and even voted for him.
2. You continued to attack him D3, basically locking unto him and not really considering anyone else as possible lynch-target.
3. Therefore if you and moody are the scum-team then you are bussing him very hard.
4. I doubt that you would do this without his consent.
5. However the main reason for bussing your teammate is to get him lynched and thereby setting yourself up as 'confirmed' Town.
6. This means that moody had to agree to a plan that gets him lynched in order to possibly set up the win for you tomorrow.
7. Given his feelings earlier I very much doubt that he would agree to this.
8. Therefore dimochka+moody scum-team seems unlikely to me.

Summarizing: town!moody didn't like getting lynched for the greater good but still agreed to it as it was an automatic win for us. Here scum!moody would need to be sacrificed for a chance at winning which he would have anyway if you didn't try to get him lynched and I don't think he would do that.

That was my train of thought when I made that remark but I'm not used to having to explain it step-by-step as it's just one leap for me.

Now that said meanwhile moody also considers you to be his number one pick for scum, so there is still the possibility that you decided to bus each other so that no matter who gets lynched the other would be considered Town by the rest of us. I will have to keep that mind during my rereads.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:39 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SDK wrote:Probably you. I tend to prioritize the people who are actually pushing the game.
So basically this reply screamed to me "Look at me, I can't be scum because I didn't kill you! Look at how townie I am!"
SDK wrote:adnapemit. No one else in this game is particularly scary, so I'd go with the townie player, especially if I still had a partner as you say here.
Reasoning feels off to me, scum shouldn't kill who they state themselves is townie, rather someone who is considered by actual Town to be townie. Then again maybe SDK wasn't thinking from a scum's viewpoint here.
SDK wrote:I don't want to sound like an asshole, but I'm a better player than most so I'm usually going by my own reads regardless,
This could go either way.


I think "paranoia" probably was the correct word to use there, because I'm not even following how you can arrive at your early conclusions based on what I said (for example, how you apparently weren't ready to accept any answer other than "adnapemit" to your first question).

That makes me feel both better and worse about you. Better because paranoia is pretty exclusive to townies, worse because this was a pretty in your face example of paranoia.


Sabrar, what do you think of dimochka's latest two posts?


moody and Madge, I need you guys. T/S list with possible teams would be a great start. Even better would be commenting on our lists as well.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:15 pm UTC

From earlier:

moody7277 wrote:Town
Madge
Sabrar
SDK
dim
Scum


Most likely
dim + SDK
dim + Sabrar
dim + Madge (but only because I'm rather sure he has to be scum)
SDK + Sabrar
Less likely
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:28 am UTC

SDK wrote:(for example, how you apparently weren't ready to accept any answer other than "adnapemit" to your first question).
It's not that I wasn't ready to accept any other answer, rather it was (as you mention) such an 'in your face' reply because you were answering my question so putting my name out there looked deliberate if you understand what I mean.

SDK wrote:Sabrar, what do you think of dimochka's latest two posts?
I'm the wrong person to ask, incredibly biased here. To me the last 2 posts seem to continue a trend of attacking me without any solid base. I keep waiting for him to post his reread on me that he was supposed to have ready. I keep waiting for him to react to my earlier comment here about the double standard. I want him to reply how he could have misunderstood my comment about moody so much. The longer he avoids these issues the more suspicious I get.

What is your take on this? Am I blowing things out of proportion?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Madge » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:23 am UTC

Guys, I'm really sick (just a cold, RL doc says I'll be fine) and I'm loathe to ask for replacement because I think in a day or two I'll be better (I've been sick since Sunday so I can't be sick too much longer surely?). That said if we fuck this up we won't have a day or two left, will we? =/

Of all the options I'm most happy to lynch dim, and least happy to lynch SDK.

I need to lie down, if I can come back what I'll do is I'll look at dim's post and posts about dim to see if a scummate emerges.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:24 am UTC

dimochka wrote:
SDK wrote:2) who would be my buddy?

2) Funny enough, nobody, although moody is least unlikely. You had too much discussion with Sabrar to warrant being buddies, and Madge would not have posted that "well flicky is the best we have given lack of discussion". And I obviously know that it's me.

@SDK: what is your thought about dimochka's slip here?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:27 am UTC

EBWOP @Madge: don't fret it, take your time. We can always ask for another extension if necessary.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:16 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:
SDK wrote:2) who would be my buddy?

2) Funny enough, nobody, although moody is least unlikely. You had too much discussion with Sabrar to warrant being buddies, and Madge would not have posted that "well flicky is the best we have given lack of discussion". And I obviously know that it's me.

@SDK: what is your thought about dimochka's slip here?

Ha, didn't catch that the first time through. It's a typo, though, not a slip.

More later.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby dimochka » Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:34 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:
SDK wrote:2) who would be my buddy?

2) Funny enough, nobody, although moody is least unlikely. You had too much discussion with Sabrar to warrant being buddies, and Madge would not have posted that "well flicky is the best we have given lack of discussion". And I obviously know that it's me.

@SDK: what is your thought about dimochka's slip here?

It's a typo, like SDK said, not a slip. Glad you're picking the right words to blow things out of proportion. Exactly what I'd expect.
I am doing a re-read of Sabrar right now, and I really do think that the scum pair is Sabrar/moody.

Madge, if you think there is a way to convince you to vote otherwise, then let me know what you'd like me to answer. Otherwise I'm going to get to Sabrar's re-read and questions and then I'm done. I don't think I could be convinced to vote for someone other than Sabrar or moody at this point.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:55 pm UTC

@dimochka: if I wanted to attack you because of that, I would have. No, the question was aimed specifically at SDK with the wording very deliberate because I wanted to see how he would react. I had to clear him 100% in my mind before I focused on the rest of the players.
On the other hand it's interesting to see how defensive you got.

BTW this is a ridiculous way of doing a reread when you already have an outcome in mind that you're fixated on. I can already guess the outcome. :roll:

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:25 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SDK wrote:(for example, how you apparently weren't ready to accept any answer other than "adnapemit" to your first question).
It's not that I wasn't ready to accept any other answer, rather it was (as you mention) such an 'in your face' reply because you were answering my question so putting my name out there looked deliberate if you understand what I mean.

I do understand what you mean, but I'm not sure what got you there in this case. Who should I have answered instead, if not adnapemit or you? Who would you have killed (and why) if not adnapemit?

Sabrar wrote:
SDK wrote:Sabrar, what do you think of dimochka's latest two posts?
I'm the wrong person to ask, incredibly biased here. To me the last 2 posts seem to continue a trend of attacking me without any solid base. I keep waiting for him to post his reread on me that he was supposed to have ready. I keep waiting for him to react to my earlier comment here about the double standard. I want him to reply how he could have misunderstood my comment about moody so much. The longer he avoids these issues the more suspicious I get.

What is your take on this? Am I blowing things out of proportion?

My take is that they're solid. His responses to my questions were good, and he's talking about a lot of things other than you. Felt townie. I don't get where you're getting the bolded from. He's reading you as scum, but it's certainly not an attack. The fact that he's holding those reads in a fairly passive manner, without trying to pin flimsy justification on feels townie. We'll see what he comes out with with his reread (and I agree that is required before he lays a vote or something), but your back and forth here points towards him as town. Can you show me the scummy way he's attacking you? I don't see it.

dimochka wrote:Madge, if you think there is a way to convince you to vote otherwise, then let me know what you'd like me to answer. Otherwise I'm going to get to Sabrar's re-read and questions and then I'm done. I don't think I could be convinced to vote for someone other than Sabrar or moody at this point.

We'll see. Post your reread, I'll do mine, then we'll come back and talk about this.

Sabrar, how's your reread coming?
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:59 pm UTC

SDK wrote:Who should I have answered instead, if not adnapemit or you? Who would you have killed (and why) if not adnapemit?
- Can't answer that question from your pov. Was looking more at the way you answered the question not the specifics, as I think tone is harder to fake.
- Probably dimochka. Killing a townie who was on the same wagon as scum!me seems counterproductive.

SDK wrote: Can you show me the scummy way he's attacking you? I don't see it.
- He finds it suspicious that I mention a scenario that is unlikely to occur. I explain my reasoning even pointing out a previous game where I did the same thing (you're welcome to check D3 of Pen Pal). He acknowledges my response but waves it aside based on 'feelings'. And before all of that he brings up a different scenario that is also unlikely to occur so evidently he's okay doing what he finds scummy in me. He disregards my comment on it.
Aside: this is the first time someone ever accused me of wanting to appear townie by just posting something. I've been top contributor in all of the games I've played here, both as town and as scum and that's unlikely to change.
- He goes from 'need to reread Sabrar as there are points for and against him' to 'Sabrar must be scum' based on a single observation. I explain it as well because he seems to have misunderstood it completely. He disregards it.

SDK wrote:Sabrar, how's your reread coming?
Still hoping for more input from Madge and moody, will post tomorrow regardless.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby moody7277 » Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:01 pm UTC

Rebuttal of the initial attack and vote by dimochka on me. He mentions three items in his indictment:

My first post where I do some setup speculation that to him seems overly optimistic. Instead of suggesting that I'm being optimistic or showing why this situation would not guarantee a town victory, dimochka jumps to the conclusion that I'm trying to lull town into a false sense of security. Talk about blowing stuff out of proportion.

My attempt at a reads post. At the time I made it, the bulk of the discussion had been setup spec with some tactics derived from that and a smidgen of talk about IIWAC. Not a lot to work with, as was pointed out by SirG and Sabrar calling it early to be developing such a list. I'm sure dimochka would have done better in my position, no?

My voting flicky based off that reads list. dimochka's opinion is that since my reads list is worthless, taking action based off it is useless. He then votes for me at the end of his reads list. Ah, irony.

Conclusion: with Madge's declaration that she is thinking about voting him, dimochka feels the sharks circling. There's even a chance that his most recent post is bussing scummate!Sabrar in order to skate by on the goodwill delivering scum for a win D4.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Madge » Thu Jul 28, 2016 5:13 am UTC

I'm sorry for my laser focus on dim here but I figure given that I really only want to spend 15-20 minutes on the computer before going back to lie down (feeling much better today though!!!), I may as well do something 'complete' rather than something 'half-assed'. If my conclusion is that the case for dim having a scumbuddy doesn't look good, then we're going to be in trouble. That said moody's remark about dim feeling the sharks circling rubs me the wrong way for some reason.

So with that out the way, LASER FOCUS ON DIM RE-READ:

D1:
Sabrar votes dim in RVS and then almost immediately votes for me. Scummate trying to look distant?????? OMGUS, sabrar
dim puts some good content out d1 though it's all pretty obvious (but what isn't honestly)
dim quotes sabrar's post immediately previous asking where everyone is. seems weird but could be a dim thing. dim decries IIWAC
moody finds dim neuitral / weird, prettyt consistent in style with the other players in his list, but longer.
SirG (dead, town) calls dim townie, seems to be his towniest read
panda (dead, town) calls dim neutral or slightly town
Sabrar says dim is low content, 'leaning townie but need more'
Flicky(SDK) interestingly says 'I won't fight too hard against those pushing to lynch me - better to mislynch me than mislynch a power role.' - not a very scummy thing to say (but wine), however the post that happens in he posts a reads list that describes everyone's behaviour but only uses 'good points' or other positive language on dim's input. interesting.
matt(dead, town) says dim is town-leaning
carl(dead, town) says dim is neutral / all over the place
panda(dead, town) moves dim up her reads list
>>not dim related but note sabrar chooses who dies at the end of D1 between carl and flicky due to being online at deadline and casting the deciding vote
>> who did dim vote for? will find this out.

D2
dim defends flicky and attacks sabrar
panda pegs dim and flicky as a possible scum team

Got to top of page 4, I need that lie down now. Hopefully back in a few hours.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:54 am UTC

Reread of moody (not linking to every single post, just the most important ones):

Starts of with claim-rules. I think his suggestions are similarly overgeneralized than SirGabriel's but for the most part they are correct. If someone wants me to I can make a case-by-case analysis, for now the only scenario where those rules might not be the best is a Doctor claim on D2 on to prevent mislynch.
Aside: This is the same problem dimochka referred to, however his example was completely wrong as explained here. Neutral.
Aside 2: I previously found his mistake here scummy but given my misread on Carlington due to the same reasons I'm dropping it.

Makes read-list very early, votes based on it and doesn't change later (though flicky gave no reason to do so). I don't like how he didn't revisit his list later in the day, however it at least sparked some new discussion. Let's check his most recent games:
Pen Pal: was Town, first to post complete read-list (I did a partial one before him).
Secret Santa: was Town, posted read-list fourth or fifth depending if we count Madge.
Overall fits with previous behavior, neutral.

Posts vote order. Now that is a post that I would call content for content's sake only. Scummy.

Downplays voting analysis, declares Madge to be Town. Disregards my subsequent comment about how his reasoning is flawed. This seems to be a trend here. :( Slightly scummy.

New reads. Points out similar inconsistencies in dimochka's attack as I did. Defends his read on Madge based on a single comment (that I also find townie). Most of his reads only contain post-summaries and not enough own thoughts about that content. I still think that's scummy.

Replies to several questions. I think that whole post is very townie, might be biased a bit because his reasoning regarding adnapemit is based on inconsistencies in other people's post, something I'm also looking for actively.

Defends against dimochka. I think his points are valid but the way he phrases them bugs me somewhat fiercely. I agree with him in that dimochka's attack doesn't add up but still find that post scummy. Makes complete sense if they are our scum-team.

Summary: apart from one post I still find him mostly scummy. That one post however is a complete change of tone and I can't wrap my head around it.

Hopefully Madge comes back and finishes her analysis, after which I can look at her content and speculate about the possible scum-teams.

@Madge: in case you're Town please keep in mind that scum can exploit the tie-breaking system to win if you continue to abstain. You have to vote at some point!

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:43 pm UTC

Reread on Madge was short and produced nothing new. As mentioned in moody's reread I find her original post townie, however not voting on either D1 or D2 feels really scummy and her tone here also bothers me. Undecided on her.

Now onto the scum-teams. I think SDK is town. Therefore 3 possibilities remain:

1. dimochka + Madge: no real interaction between them other then an unfinished analysis due to sickness. Madge considers dimochka scummy but thinks we should lynch me first. dimochka ignores Madge completely. Perfectly reasonable scum-pair, though it requires for moody to completely misjudge Madge. I've done something similar in Pen Pal so can relate.
2. dimochka + moody: requires them to mutually bus the sh!t out of each other. Dangerous tactic, but possible.
3. Madge + moody: both find the other townie. Likely scenario, especially if one of them has very little time to post.
Spoiler:
I'm taking some amount of IRL issues into consideration in the above. I'd like to apologize if this offends anyone but I'm not able to completely disregard those facts.
Yep, still undecided. Was really hoping that there would be something new from SDK and dimochka by now. Will be busy for a couple of hours but should be back sometime during the evening.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby dimochka » Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:59 pm UTC

Sabrar analysis - and sorry if it's a mess

Page 1
- advocates a case that is unlikely (and I mentioned that I don't like) and a few strategies that I don't agree with, but nothing particular stands out.
Page 2
Sabrar wrote:Quick reaction:
- if flicky is scum then I agree that it's almost certain that either matt or myself is his partner (and fmpov it must be matt)
- if flicky is town then I would think scum most likely avoided both trains in order not to expose themselves

disagree with part 2, completely irrelevant.
Sabrar wrote:TL;DR: adnapemit more townie, matt more scummy. If flicky is scum most likely teammate is matt, if flicky is town I would assume there is at least 1 scum in {adnapemit, dimochka, Madge} due to not participating in either train (with adnapemit being the least likely).

I don't see why scum wouldn't participate in either train. Even when I play as scum (yes wine/beer blah blah) I don't necessarily hold back from voting.

Sabrar wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Secondly, I'm comfortable enough in my read on Madge based on what I saw D1 and her latest that I am declaring her town as far as any further of my analyses go. If I'm wrong, well I don't usually make it to LYLO anyway, so it probably won't hurt those of us left then.

I think your logic is very wrong here. In case Madge is scum she'll want to leave you alive after that statement because she can count on your help to mislynch someone else.

This is more so related to moody, not Sabrar (though I came across that while analyzing sabrar's posts). I actually completely agree with Sabrar here. What I learned from my very early days of playing this game is - it's always better off to leave the people who trust you alive than to kill them and say that there was no reason to kill them. So If Madge is scum, this is exactly what she would do.

Rest of D2 - mostly focused on analyzing matt. I don't necessarily agree with the viewpoint regarding his vote on adnapemit vs. madge, but I don't find anything particularly scummy about it.

Quick note - Matt was at L-1 for a long time, I did not hammer because I didn't think he was scum. And if I was scum and did hammer, that would not have affected reads on me much. This may slightly speak to my towniness, but whatever. Also I think that entire analysis if why scum didn't hammer is flawed. This is definitely driven by some OMGUS, but the fact that Sabrar mentioned this:
Sabrar wrote:Okay, not that hard. 3 possibilities:

1. matt is scum
2. both scum are already on his train. fmpov adnapemit + SDK. Would mean I'm completely wrong about the former which has been known to happen.
3. 1 scum is just not playing the game. Means Madge is scum, other probably already on train, most likely SDK.

Have I missed anything?

And not this:
SDK wrote:4. They don't need to hammer.

stands out to me.



OK D3
Sabrar wrote:I also found it strange that he continues to find me suspicious because of a scenario that has a low chance of occuring (and mentioning it only on D2), while he brought up a similar situation earlier here. This I can only see as a double standard but I'm not the most objective person here.

I can see that point, although I'd argue having a roleblocker, a cop, and having the roleblocker target the cop (0.5 * 0.5 * 1/7) is more likely than your suggestion. I think to me though the difference was in that I was shutting down a recommendation that I didn't think was a good idea and would help scum if happened. Sabrar suggested a recommendation that would be the unlikely one. I was definitely being inconsistent here, but it just seemed to me that his purpose here was to bring up something that is most likely irrelevant to look like he's producing more content. Madge's suggestion is in the same vein, but is more consistent with her meta and I've seen her bring up IIWAC before. But I'll take note.

I already mentioned the fact that it seemed to me that he's defending moody, but let me respond to Sabrar's post
Sabrar wrote:Yes, I was referring to Pen Pal and I think the situation is similar (at least for the scenario that I considered). Let me break it down into steps.
1. You attacked moody hard already in D2 and even voted for him.
2. You continued to attack him D3, basically locking unto him and not really considering anyone else as possible lynch-target.
3. Therefore if you and moody are the scum-team then you are bussing him very hard.
4. I doubt that you would do this without his consent.
5. However the main reason for bussing your teammate is to get him lynched and thereby setting yourself up as 'confirmed' Town.
6. This means that moody had to agree to a plan that gets him lynched in order to possibly set up the win for you tomorrow.
7. Given his feelings earlier I very much doubt that he would agree to this.
8. Therefore dimochka+moody scum-team seems unlikely to me.

Summarizing: town!moody didn't like getting lynched for the greater good but still agreed to it as it was an automatic win for us. Here scum!moody would need to be sacrificed for a chance at winning which he would have anyway if you didn't try to get him lynched and I don't think he would do that.

Sure, no one wants to get lynched. Obviously moody didn't even want to get lynched when he was town and his lynch would guarantee a win. Therefore again, I don't see why you're bringing this up. This required no explanation/analysis/mentioning, the fact that you brought attention to this stands out because we're at LYLO and no one from our group would want to get lynched - if we're town because we'll lose, and if we're scum because it doesn't help us win. Basically it just seems to me you're saying "no we shouldn't lynch moody because he would be unhappy about it" and yet all of us would be unhappy to be lynched. Plus there was really no specific attention on me/moody as a team (or as separate individuals) so there was really no need for us to bus one another. On the other hand it would be logical for you to defend moody if you both were scum, don't you agree? That's where my logic went. And you could really use this argument at any point at which one of a pair you're analyzing is attacking the other. Anyways, enough on this from my end. And I really don't want to discuss what happened in a different game much more.

Sabrar wrote:@dimochka: if I wanted to attack you because of that, I would have. No, the question was aimed specifically at SDK with the wording very deliberate because I wanted to see how he would react. I had to clear him 100% in my mind before I focused on the rest of the players.
On the other hand it's interesting to see how defensive you got.

Disagree. If you attacked me over this it would be even more suspicious. But that's my opinion.

Sabrar wrote:Aside: this is the first time someone ever accused me of wanting to appear townie by just posting something. I've been top contributor in all of the games I've played here, both as town and as scum and that's unlikely to change.

I may have been unclear. Often D1 townieness is judged based on essentially how much someone post (unless anyone says something really stupid). What it seemed to me is this post was not really necessarily / helping move us along, but was generating discussion that took us away from the goal of our game while adding to your posting amount. This is something I often look for in D1 specifically because you have no results to go off of.

Anyways to recap - Strangely enough, while I still think sabrar/moody is the most likely pair, I'm not as confident about Sabrar anymore as I was earlier. The things I pointed out earlier in the game are still standing out to me (the D1 post, the D3 defense of moody, and actually almost nothing on D2). It did seem he was trying to nitpick a few things that I addressed above, but there isn't anything extremely clear. I wish I wasn't working/interviewing/moving and had time to post more than a couple of times a day, but that proves difficult. I think at this point the best I can do is try to review D3 moody/madge and see if my opinion changes.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:38 pm UTC

Quick reactions:
dimochka wrote:I don't see why scum wouldn't participate in either train. Even when I play as scum (yes wine/beer blah blah) I don't necessarily hold back from voting.
Because Town usually suspects those players first who voted for another townie. So if scum doesn't need to save their partner they can remain safely in the background.

dimochka wrote:and yet all of us would be unhappy to be lynched.
Thank you for explaining, I think I finally get your point. If I understand you correctly you think that moody is not alone with 'not wanting to get lynched' and I shouldn't have treated him differently. To this I can only reply that I remembered moody complaining and it sounded like it was a repetitive problem for him so it got stuck in my mind.

dimochka wrote:I may have been unclear.
No, here I understood you perfectly. My point was that I post so much anyway that I don't need to look for an unlikely scenario just to 'appear' contributing.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:04 pm UTC

Hope everyone knows that deadline is in 10 hours. Will be awake before it.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:11 pm UTC

I'm sorry. I haven't had time for this game - not as much as I thought I would when I signed up as a replacement, at least. I wanted to do this properly, with read-throughs on each player and everything else, but at this point I'm close to 100% that dimochka is town, and perhaps 80% that Sabrar is scum. The last scum between Madge and moody I'm unsure of (because I read moody more as town and Madge as likely-not Sabrar's buddy), but I'm going to just go with this given the time crunch.

Sabrar, for the record, I will feel terrible if you flip town. You've put so much effort into this game, if I'm wrong, that's going to hurt. I apologize in advance if that is the case.

Vote: Sabrar.
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