Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:57 pm UTC
Ok, with generalz and dimochka's flips, I think we can massively simplify our possible combinations, so let's do the logic:
3 scum case (1 scum still remains):
generalz's flip confirms moody as town (effectively), and also confirms that we can trust his results. From his D2 result, one of {adnapemit, Madge} is scum. Given that JackHK is not in that pair, we can trust his result. Therefore, one of {adnapemit, Suzaku, moody} is scum. The only name overlapping is adnapemit. Therefore, if we have 1 scum remaining, adnapemit is that scum.
4 scum case (2 scum still remain):
generalz's flip confirms moody as town (effectively), and also confirms that we can trust his results. From his D2 result, one or both of {adnapemit, Madge} is/are scum. If JackHK is town, then exactly one of {adnapemit, Suzaku, moody} is scum, but moody is town, so therefore exactly one of {Suzaku, adnapemit}, or Jack is scum.
Possible scum teams in this case (I think):
{adnapemit, JackHK}, {adnapemit, me}, {adnapemit, matt}, {adnapemit, Madge}, {Madge, Suzaku}, {Madge, JackHK}.
I am pretty certain that adnapemit is scum. I know that I am Town (although I can't prove it). I'd be amazed if Madge is scum based on her behaviour all game. The lack of kill N2, whilst not conclusive, suggests that Jack is telling the truth about his ability, although scum!JackHK could have agreed with his teammate to withhold the kill. In order of most to least likely here are who I think are the scum team:
adnapemit on her own
adnapemit, matt (with one unclaimed indie somewhere)
adnapemit, JackHK
adnapemit, Madge
Madge, JackHK
Madge, Suzaku
adnapemit, me (clearly not going to be the case FMPOV, but added for completeness)
The following breakdowns assume Madge and matt are neutral, as claimed. Assuming that Madge's figure yesterday was accurate and didn't include dimochka as town, and treating moody as town (because he effectively is), we are now probably at 4-1-1-1. If we mislynch, and scum successfully kill town, we would be at 2-1-1-1, with matt potentially arresting someone. Alternatively, we lynch matt, and scum kill puts us at 3-1-1, still with town majority, but no arrest to mess with us. If there are 2 scum left, we are at 3-2-1-1, a successful lynch followed by town kill by scum puts us at 2-1-1-1, with one potential arrested player again. If there are 2 scum left, and we mislynch, we could be at 1-2-1-1, with an arrested player potentially. If there are 2 scum left, and we lynch matt, we would be at 2-2-1. Overall, this suggests to me that we can't have two scum left, because Town wouldn't control the vote after only 1 mislynch, 1 no lynch, and two nights without a kill, especially given matt's apparent anti-town-ness and the theoretical potential at game start for generalz or moody to be anti-town as well, if we'd mislynched them early on.
Ergo, adnapemit is almost certainly the sole-remaining scum.
When you say generalz was town-aligned, do you mean that he was a member of the Town faction?
Assuming we are going to lynch adnapemit, who do people think I should block/protect tonight? Logical suggestions are matt to prevent another arrest (and/or a kill if he is teammates with adnapemit), or one of {Madge, JackHK, Suzaku}, since they are the only other possible scum.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.
