Trial of the Pariahs - Game Over

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Based on adnapemit's comments earlier, I expect a hammer vote from her at some point. Everybody, please make sure you have a sensible action in.

not an issue, because arrested.

Good point, thanks.

But then, why me?

Right, I suppose Suzaku would work as well, but I'd rather see if you can put it together rather than just give you the answer.

Still confused. But it's late, so I'm probably not thinking straight, and I'm going to bed. Maybe I'll have a fresh idea or two in the morning.

[adnapemit]

@jimbob: I think blocking the nightkill is more important than blocking matt.

I agree.

I can't vote, but I strongly suggest everyone votes No Lynch again. Whatever you do don't vote for matt.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@jimbob: I think blocking the nightkill is more important than blocking matt.

I agree.

I can't vote, but I strongly suggest everyone votes No Lynch again. Whatever you do don't vote for matt.

Do you know something we don't (well obviously you do, but I mean with reference to matt)? Or are you just trolling us?

I don't have time to go trawling Mafia Universe to try to figure out an alternative role for matt. Does anybody else want to point to what they think he is?

[Suzaku]

@jimbob: I think blocking the nightkill is more important than blocking matt.

I agree.

I can't vote, but I strongly suggest everyone votes No Lynch again. Whatever you do don't vote for matt.

I'm pretty sure that much wine exceeds LD50.

Seriously tempted to switch from dim to adnap at this point.

[JackHK]

@jimbob: I think blocking the nightkill is more important than blocking matt.

I agree.

I can't vote, but I strongly suggest everyone votes No Lynch again. Whatever you do don't vote for matt.

I'm pretty sure that much wine exceeds LD50.

Seriously tempted to switch from dim to adnap at this point.

I mean, I have to agree with Suzaku. I think at this point it's probably worth jimbob role blocking adnapemit instead of Matt.

(sorry for not posting much, things are a bit hectic as I'm sorting out preparing for university)

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@jimbob: I think blocking the nightkill is more important than blocking matt.

I agree.

I can't vote, but I strongly suggest everyone votes No Lynch again. Whatever you do don't vote for matt.

I'm pretty sure that much wine exceeds LD50.

Seriously tempted to switch from dim to adnap at this point.

I think we'd all be voting for adnapemit (well except me probably), if it weren't for the fact that matt arrested her...

If our suspicions are correct, Paralyzer!adnapemit probably doesn't have a threatening night action, unless she happens to be the mafia killer, so the only reason to block her is if we are convinced that she is scum AND she is not the only surviving scum apart from (ignoring presumed lynchee dimochka) AND is going to be the one using the night kill. There's no point in me blocking her if she is scum!dimochka's only living team-mate, as noted earlier.

[Suzaku]

So far, we've not seen that adnap has any power usable at night, and therefore (assuming here) susceptible to blocking by jimbobmacdoodle.

Matt, OTOH, can prevent a townie from voting. This could cost town the game. If we had a clear view of the killer, I'd say blocking the kill was more important, but since we really don't...

My view is still that jimbob should block matt.

Also, temporarily forgot she couldn't be lynched.

[matt96]

There's no point in me blocking her if she is scum!dimochka's only living team-mate, as noted earlier.

Why not? Wouldn't it guarantee that she would be the one who has the night kill, a lack of which would clearly indicate that you were right about her? I would like to mention that the only roles that are part of my role are communist and magistrate, and the thing I'm not telling people right now is an adjective stuck before it that indicates my current goal.

[adnapemit]

Wouldn't it guarantee that she would be the one who has the night kill, a lack of which would clearly indicate that you were right about her?

Or scum doesn't kill anyone tonight to make me look guilty.
But I seem to have done enough on day 3 that it shouldn't be necessary.

[matt96]

Wouldn't it guarantee that she would be the one who has the night kill, a lack of which would clearly indicate that you were right about her?

Or scum doesn't kill anyone tonight to make me look guilty.
But I seem to have done enough on day 3 that it shouldn't be necessary.

So would blocking you twice and no lynching or lynching known non-town tommorow be good enough for you? I don't think giving up two night kills would be worth framing someone.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

There's no point in me blocking her if she is scum!dimochka's only living team-mate, as noted earlier.

Why not? Wouldn't it guarantee that she would be the one who has the night kill, a lack of which would clearly indicate that you were right about her? I would like to mention that the only roles that are part of my role are communist and magistrate, and the thing I'm not telling people right now is an adjective stuck before it that indicates my current goal.

Because, as noted in one of my walls of logic, blocking adnapemit prevents a night kill that we don't actually need to prevent in order to win as Town, if she is dimochka's team-mate. Assuming 5-2-1-1, with dimochka and adnapemit as scum, lynch dimochka, one town death tonight puts us at 4-1-1-1, which still has town controlling the lynch, if you don't arrest anyone. If we are wrong about dimochka, or you decide to arrest town, most other scenarios put town as no longer controlling the lynch. As such, it makes sense to try to deal with one of those scenarios.

[JackHK]

There's no point in me blocking her if she is scum!dimochka's only living team-mate, as noted earlier.

Why not? Wouldn't it guarantee that she would be the one who has the night kill, a lack of which would clearly indicate that you were right about her? I would like to mention that the only roles that are part of my role are communist and magistrate, and the thing I'm not telling people right now is an adjective stuck before it that indicates my current goal.

Because, as noted in one of my walls of logic, blocking adnapemit prevents a night kill that we don't actually need to prevent in order to win as Town, if she is dimochka's team-mate. Assuming 5-2-1-1, with dimochka and adnapemit as scum, lynch dimochka, one town death tonight puts us at 4-1-1-1, which still has town controlling the lynch, if you don't arrest anyone. If we are wrong about dimochka, or you decide to arrest town, most other scenarios put town as no longer controlling the lynch. As such, it makes sense to try to deal with one of those scenarios.

Oh, that makes sense.

In that case, I would personally advocate blocking Matt, just so we have as many town votes available as possible.

[moody7277]

Trolling panda is trolling.

My opinion is that jimbob should block matt so that he doesn't arrest adnapemit again (assuming he can arrest the same person on consecutive days), we lynch adnapemit, followed by game over town happy dance.

[Sabrar]

Deadline is in 5 hours. Please send me your night-actions (if you have any) before the end of the day!

Votals:
dimochka - 4 (generalz, moody7277, JackHK, Suzaku)
matt96 - 1 (Madge)

Not voting: adnapemit, dimochka, jimbobmacdoodle, matt96

Tied votals will result in a No Lynch.

[matt96]

I hope this works vote:Dimochka

[Sabrar]

And that's hammer! Night has fallen.

Final votals:
dimochka - 5 (generalz, moody7277, JackHK, Suzaku, matt96)
matt96 - 1 (Madge)

Not voting: adnapemit, dimochka, jimbobmacdoodle

dimochka has been lynched. Please refrain from posting until D5 starts. In case you haven't sent in your night-action you have a short period to do so now.

[Sabrar]

dimochka is dead. He was a Godfather Fabricator, aligned with the Mafia.
generalz is dead. He was a Vengeful Sibling Dreamer, aligned with Town.

It is now Day 5. Due to the reduced number of players deadline is set at this Friday 6pm UTC (little over 4 days from now)!

7 players alive, 4 votes required to hammer.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I blocked matt. I also received a message, with nothing particularly in it, unless the messenger is being particularly cryptic... Does anybody have anything to reveal about last night, or any reason why we shouldn't lynch adnapemit?

moody, I assume you have to now outlive someone. Will that be mafia, or do you not know?

Madge, I hope for your sake that you want the game to end today?

[JackHK]

OK

So I imagine that Matt ended the day early in order to make it less likely for jimbob et al. to get their night action in. I guess we know that moody is in fact also a vengeful sibling but the lie makes sense, so I won't hold it against them.
Can somebody check through the logic now that we know we can trust generalz?

[JackHK]

EBWOP: Also, assuming the logic holds, I see no reason not to vote for adnapemit, jimbob (I did not send the message, for what it's worth)

[matt96]

I blocked matt.

Madge, I hope for your sake that you want the game to end today?

First one doesn't matter because I wasn't targeting anyone anyways. Second I think it would have been a mistake for Madge to pick today as the end of the game.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I blocked matt.

Madge, I hope for your sake that you want the game to end today?

First one doesn't matter because I wasn't targeting anyone anyways. Second I think it would have been a mistake for Madge to pick today as the end of the game.

Are you implying that we are wrong about who the other scum is/that there are at least two scum? If so, please say how you know this. In the meantime, I'm going to be ignoring basically anything you say as wine.

[moody7277]

I also received a message, with nothing particularly in it, unless the messenger is being particularly cryptic

It was Samuel Morse's first post. Thought I'd actually do something other than hand out joke buzzers.

moody, I assume you have to now outlive someone. Will that be mafia, or do you not know?

It's whoever killed generalz. Which means, since it doesn't seem we have a SK or vig, mafia did it. Which also means that while I'm de jure independent now, I'm still pro-town.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Ok, with generalz and dimochka's flips, I think we can massively simplify our possible combinations, so let's do the logic:

3 scum case (1 scum still remains):
generalz's flip confirms moody as town (effectively), and also confirms that we can trust his results. From his D2 result, one of {adnapemit, Madge} is scum. Given that JackHK is not in that pair, we can trust his result. Therefore, one of {adnapemit, Suzaku, moody} is scum. The only name overlapping is adnapemit. Therefore, if we have 1 scum remaining, adnapemit is that scum.

4 scum case (2 scum still remain):
generalz's flip confirms moody as town (effectively), and also confirms that we can trust his results. From his D2 result, one or both of {adnapemit, Madge} is/are scum. If JackHK is town, then exactly one of {adnapemit, Suzaku, moody} is scum, but moody is town, so therefore exactly one of {Suzaku, adnapemit}, or Jack is scum.
Possible scum teams in this case (I think):
{adnapemit, JackHK}, {adnapemit, me}, {adnapemit, matt}, {adnapemit, Madge}, {Madge, Suzaku}, {Madge, JackHK}.

I am pretty certain that adnapemit is scum. I know that I am Town (although I can't prove it). I'd be amazed if Madge is scum based on her behaviour all game. The lack of kill N2, whilst not conclusive, suggests that Jack is telling the truth about his ability, although scum!JackHK could have agreed with his teammate to withhold the kill. In order of most to least likely here are who I think are the scum team:
adnapemit on her own
adnapemit, matt (with one unclaimed indie somewhere)
adnapemit, JackHK
adnapemit, Madge
Madge, JackHK
Madge, Suzaku
adnapemit, me (clearly not going to be the case FMPOV, but added for completeness)

The following breakdowns assume Madge and matt are neutral, as claimed. Assuming that Madge's figure yesterday was accurate and didn't include dimochka as town, and treating moody as town (because he effectively is), we are now probably at 4-1-1-1. If we mislynch, and scum successfully kill town, we would be at 2-1-1-1, with matt potentially arresting someone. Alternatively, we lynch matt, and scum kill puts us at 3-1-1, still with town majority, but no arrest to mess with us. If there are 2 scum left, we are at 3-2-1-1, a successful lynch followed by town kill by scum puts us at 2-1-1-1, with one potential arrested player again. If there are 2 scum left, and we mislynch, we could be at 1-2-1-1, with an arrested player potentially. If there are 2 scum left, and we lynch matt, we would be at 2-2-1. Overall, this suggests to me that we can't have two scum left, because Town wouldn't control the vote after only 1 mislynch, 1 no lynch, and two nights without a kill, especially given matt's apparent anti-town-ness and the theoretical potential at game start for generalz or moody to be anti-town as well, if we'd mislynched them early on.

Ergo, adnapemit is almost certainly the sole-remaining scum.

When you say generalz was town-aligned, do you mean that he was a member of the Town faction?

Assuming we are going to lynch adnapemit, who do people think I should block/protect tonight? Logical suggestions are matt to prevent another arrest (and/or a kill if he is teammates with adnapemit), or one of {Madge, JackHK, Suzaku}, since they are the only other possible scum.

[Sabrar]

When you say generalz was town-aligned, do you mean that he was a member of the Town faction?

Yes.

[Madge]

I haven't placed my guess yet. Unfortunately, that means that if town wins with today's lynch, I can't guess in time, so I've got a small risk of losing because I couldn't guess. I can guess in time for tonight's NK, though, if town has a kill.

I have information that will be useful to town from my last question (it will not directly say who to lynch but it's going to narrow down the possibilities somewhat and prevent a lot of blind alleys). I will provide my Q&A to town if I can have their assurance they will help me achieve my win.

Otherwise I guess I can side with scum.

That also means I don't want to be lynched today, but I can be lynched tomorrow or NK'd tonight if I get my guess off, should that help.

[Madge]

For the record I didn't send a secret message last night.

Also, D4 I messaged matt and asked him to use a code word for an indie alliance to help mewin. The fact he didn't do that has made me quite upset, but I suppose he already had got his win by that point, or was lying to us all.

[moody7277]

That also means I don't want to be lynched today, but I can be lynched tomorrow or NK'd tonight if I get my guess off, should that help.

We lynch matt today
jimbob blocks timepanda
You guess game ends D6
No one dies N5
We lynch timepanda D6, everybody wins.

[JackHK]

I think the way to let Madge win along with Town is if we're certain that the other mafia is adnapemit. That way, we can vote for No lynch (or even Matt, I suppose), and then jimbob can block adnapemit over night. Them Madge has time to guess a day 6 ending.

Please, someone correct me if my logic is incorrect somewhere.



Oh wait, if we vote No lynch today, I guess Matt might jail adnapemit overnight?

Oh, moody's already posted pretty much the same idea. If everyone thinks it seems sensible, I think I'll start off:

Vote matt96

[Suzaku]

Well, I sent out a lock last night as promised. Unfortunately, I sent it to generalz, who's no longer around to confirm receipt.

i think moody's plan is probably the way to go. Anyone think differently?

[Madge]

I'm down with lynching matt today at the very least. Him not acknowledging my secret message (either to agree to side with me, or to out me for being sneaky) is a very concerning development.

I'm a bit scared that lynching matt will end the game, and adnap is an indie - but generalz dream results confirm that if i'm not scum, adnapemit is, and I'm happy to be lynched if lynching adnapemit doesn't end the game.

In a show of good faith I'm happy for town (i.e. moody) to dictate tonight's question so D6 we get a final nail in adnapemit's coffin if necessary, or information to use to go to looking for scum #2 if it comes to that.

I think a question to test adnapemit or matt's claim is the obvious choice: something like "Is the blob a role present in this game" might work. Anyone else have thoughts?

So yeah I'm good with moody's plan. With me, suzaku, moody and jack on board with it we don't need more people to agree as we have voting majority, but it's probably a bit rude to end the day without giving everyone a chance to post.

[Madge]

Also after thinking a little more I'm a bit worried that matt's role might not end the game. So town might win, but we have to keep playing for several more days for Matt's win condition to be realised, whatever that may be. Best just get him today and be done with it.

While pre-submitting my night actions I decided to make my question for tonight be "if town wins, will the game end?" just for my own paranoia. Still happy to change it if town would rather me ask something more useful to town.

[matt96]

Just want to clarify that nothing in my role PM indicates that my win would end the game, but rather indicates the opposite, given that my current goal is something I must accomplish before the end of the game, by any means I can (other than mod intervention) I'm not willing to risk my win for Madge, but telling the truth about this is the least I can do for helping me out Day 3.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I'm up with the lynch matt plan to help Madge. If Madge is scum, well played (and very poorly played on adnapemit's part). Me roleblocking adnapemit should prevent the night kill and if it doesn't, we can lynch someone else tomorrow (Madge being the obvious choice).

To me an obvious question to ask would be "how many mafia-aligned players are still alive?" since if the answer is 1, adnapemit must be it, and we can carry on lynching her. If she doesn't then flip scum, we hope we can somehow still lynch Madge. If the answer is greater than 1, we'll need to figure out who the team are, looking at behaviour. Or you ask something to try to identify a team-mate for adnapemit, e.g. if it's allowed: "are adnapemit, and JacHK co-aligned?" or "how many living town players has moody targeted with night actions prior to tonight?"

[Madge]

That may be the question I asked last night and know the answer to (see below)

Since it seems like everyone's on board with helping me, let's get this day ended.

Vote: Matt

My question and answer:

Q: As of the beginning of d5, how many people does town need to lynch, kill, or otherwise neutralise to win the game?
A: One.

Basically: adnapemit is probably the last scum, we can lynch Matt today, I've submitted my guess for D6 so we lynch adnapemit tomorrow and we all win.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Sounds good to me. Given that that question was the one you asked, it's pretty clear that either you are lying and should be lynched, or adnapemit is scum, which we believed anyway. I fully expect us to win tomorrow now.

@any townie with access to a night kill, don't use it tonight (I don't expect there to be any, but a town-aligned kill tonight could really confuse things).

[adnapemit]

Might as well make this quicker.
Although I suggest we lynch jimbob tomorrow.

Vote: matt96

[matt96]

Thanks, I did find ithe odd that the power supposedly absorbed from dimochka was claimed to be false inventor which is slightly different from the Fabricator that was revealed on flip, but that is a problem for everyone else.

Vote:matt96

[Sabrar]

And that's hammer! Night has fallen.

Final votals:
matt96 - 4 (JackHK, Madge, adnapemit, matt96)

Not voting: jimbobmacdoodle, moody7277, Suzaku

matt96 has been lynched. Please refrain from posting until D6 starts. As hammer was reached early in the day, there will be a 24 hour Night in which you can send in your night-actions. D6 will start around 12pm UTC on Wednesday.

[Sabrar]

matt96 is dead. He was a Suicidal Communist Magistrate, Independent. He has fulfilled his win-condition.
adnapemit is dead. She was a Paralyzer, aligned with the Mafia.

It is now Day 6. Deadline is set at next Monday 6pm UTC.

5 players alive, 3 votes required to hammer.