Trial of the Pariahs - Game Over

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Suzaku
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Suzaku » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:25 pm UTC

Dafuq just happened?

We lynched Indy.matt and scum.adnap died during the night?

Oh, and BTW, one or more of {Jack, jimbob, moody} is scum.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:26 pm UTC

Hmmm... What?

OK, let's assume everyone town has been telling the truth.
We know that dimochka, SirG, and adnapemit were all scum, that matt was independent, and that ConMan, Carlington, and generalz were Town. I know that I am Town.

From generalz, we have that moody is Town-ish, and was very Town until generalz died. This leaves the only people who can be mafia as jimbob, Madge, and Suzaku. generalz's first dream at least does not rule out Madge as scum. My Sensor rules out Suzaku. So we are down to jimbob versus Madge.


Who has less proof of not being scum?As far as I can tell, every question Madge got an answer to is true (haven't properly check yet though.)

I've just found this question:
Q: How many town players are currently alive?
A: At the beginning of Day 4 there are 5 Town-aligned players remaining in the game.

At the beginning of Day 4 We had matt, madge, moody, adnap, jack, suzaku, dim, generalz, and jimbob. If madge is telling the truth, of these at most moody, jack, suzaku, generalz, and jimbob are town. Which is 5.


So either:
Madge is lying and she is the remaining scum (I think this is unlikely, if only because it would be a very long con)
Someone who was town on Day 4 is now scum.

I can rule out generalz for being dead, and of course FMPOV myself. This leaves moody, suzaku, and jimbob. Who among these could have been turned somehow? I don't have time to browse the mafiauniverse right now.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:29 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:Dafuq just happened?

We lynched Indy.matt and scum.adnap died during the night?

Oh, and BTW, one or more of {Jack, jimbob, moody} is scum.


I have to agree with you on the "Dafuq?"!

I hope you can see the logic the probably someone has turned. So I agree that from your POV there's either scum in {Jack, jimbob, moody} or it's Madge.

Oh, yeah, adnap died! That's weird. I don't think any of us has declared a night-killing power, have we?

@jimbob, you targeted adnap last night - do you know why she died?

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Suzaku » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:33 pm UTC

For completeness, that list is from generalz dreamer power, which I inherited on his death.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:41 pm UTC

Ok, I am officially confused as well. Own up, who killed adnapemit? I roleblocked her, as planned, FWIW, but have no info on why she died. About the best idea I have off the top of my head is that we were in a 4 scum scenario at game start. Here's my list from yesterday of possible scum teams:
adnapemit on her own
adnapemit, matt
adnapemit, JackHK
adnapemit, Madge
Madge, JackHK
Madge, Suzaku
adnapemit, me

Clearly by the fact that the game isn't over, the first is ruled out. The second is ruled out by matt being dead. With adnapemit confirmed scum, we also rule out the two cases without her leaving us with:
adnapemit, JackHK
adnapemit, Madge
adnapemit, me

Assuming there is only one scum left alive, that means the sole surviving scum must be amongst {JackHK, moody, me, Suzaku} (Suzaku either is lying scum or his result is accurate), which reduces down to {JackHK, me} to a neutral observer, which FMPOV means JackHK is scum. Unless there's weirder stuff going on or a recruit as Jack suggested (or I made a mistake). I'll have to look at options more in depth later.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:42 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:For completeness, that list is from generalz dreamer power, which I inherited on his death.



Oh! That's more interesting!

Following the logic -
If Suzaku is telling the truth (town according to my Sensor, but possibly turned) then Madge is not scum (I refuse to believe that we have 2 scum remaining)
If Suzaku is lying, then still Madge is not scum (surely there is only one scum left!)

So now I believe Madge is telling the truth.

Can jimbob, moody, and Suzaku please provide an account of their night actions N4 and N5?

Myself, I had no actions to do, and did nothing.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:46 pm UTC

JackHK wrote:Can jimbob, moody, and Suzaku please provide an account of their night actions N4 and N5?
As discussed in thread, I blocked matt N4 (to prevent him arresting someone and either making it impossible for us to lynch them or for Town to lose a vote), and adnapemit N5 (to prevent the night kill).
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:48 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Ok, I am officially confused as well. Own up, who killed adnapemit? I roleblocked her, as planned, FWIW, but have no info on why she died. About the best idea I have off the top of my head is that we were in a 4 scum scenario at game start. Here's my list from yesterday of possible scum teams:
adnapemit on her own
adnapemit, matt
adnapemit, JackHK
adnapemit, Madge
Madge, JackHK
Madge, Suzaku
adnapemit, me

Clearly by the fact that the game isn't over, the first is ruled out. The second is ruled out by matt being dead. With adnapemit confirmed scum, we also rule out the two cases without her leaving us with:
adnapemit, JackHK
adnapemit, Madge
adnapemit, me

Assuming there is only one scum left alive, that means the sole surviving scum must be amongst {JackHK, moody, me, Suzaku} (Suzaku either is lying scum or his result is accurate), which reduces down to {JackHK, me} to a neutral observer, which FMPOV means JackHK is scum. Unless there's weirder stuff going on or a recruit as Jack suggested (or I made a mistake). I'll have to look at options more in depth later.


I'm trying to work out if there's any good proof that I'm telling the truth. Aside from the fact that the night I used the Pope power, nobody died (which you have correctly point out could just as well be orchestrated by mafia), there is the fact that my Sensor list turned out to be accurate, ad far as we know, even though the scum member on it wasn't who anyone suspected at the time.

Now, jimbob, enough of your night actions have turned out to work that I at least believe you have the powers you say you do. However, you did interact with a known scum last night, so at the moment, you're at the the top of my list for possible recruits.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:50 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
JackHK wrote:Can jimbob, moody, and Suzaku please provide an account of their night actions N4 and N5?
As discussed in thread, I blocked matt N4 (to prevent him arresting someone and either making it impossible for us to lynch them or for Town to lose a vote), and adnapemit N5 (to prevent the night kill).


Thanks. This lines up, at least, with everything else that has happened.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby moody7277 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:10 pm UTC

N4: sent "What hath God wrought" to jimbob

N5: no action

I also haven't picked up any more powers from people.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Suzaku » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:21 pm UTC

N4:
Sent lock to generalz
Stabbed Matt with (likely) fake syringe of poison
Inherited Dreamer power from generalz

N5:
Used three-person version of Dreamer with result {jack, jimbob, moody}
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Suzaku » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:22 pm UTC

EBWOP:
As generalz reported to me when I asked him, the three have at least one Mafia member, not just "non-town" or "anti-town".
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Madge » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:30 pm UTC

So... we need to win before daybreak tomorrow because I submitted my guess that we were done today.

Something doesn't add up, quite literally. Damnit, I should have come up with a better question - adnapemit seemed too willing to let us go with out friend.

My question is quite useless:
Q: if town wins, will the game end?
A: Yes.

Scum: if you can win today or tonight with my vote, let me know. I'll side with you. I don't trust town's ability to catch you - it looks like it's going to be a 50/50 lynch and I don't like those odds.

That said... I think I probably win regardless? Assume we're at 3/1/1. Lynch scum: game ends d6, I win. lynch town. Enter n6 2/1/1 - scum kills not-me, we're at 1/1/1 - DAMNIT, I'm kingmaker d7, day ends, I lose, who cares I support!

DEAR SCUM: If I am kingmaker tomorrow, I will side with town - so you'd best figure out a way to win overnight tonight if you get the mislynch you're gunning for, because you'll lose otherwise.

So, looks like it's in my best interest to side with town.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:35 pm UTC

OK. As far as I see it, we have two main questions:
a) Why did adnapemit die last night?
b) Who is the mafia member among us?

Madge is pretty much cleared, assuming there is indeed only one mafia member among us: (Logic from previous post in spoiler)
Spoiler:
Suzaku claims to have dreamt that at least one of {Jack, jimbob, moody} is mafia.
If Suzaku is telling the truth, then one of these people, and not Madge, is the mafia.
If Suzaku is lying, then he, and not Madge, is the mafia.


So we know that Madge is indeed independent,
From her question asked for N3, every other currently alive player was Town on D4. So we have confirmed that someone has changed factions.

jimbob is the only one who has claimed to interact with mafia, roleblocking adnapemit. Now this is weird. because in adnapemit's position, I would definitely have killed jimbob overnight.

@Sabrar: If jimbob roleblocks the mafia member, and they try and kill jimbob, whose action succeeds?

Now, assuming Madge has in fact put in her guess for the game ending on D6, I think she is motivated to help town find the mafia member today. (Madge, is this correct?)

#NINJA!EDIT: @Madge, we are currently at 3/1/1. Assuming we lynch incorrectly, we are at 2/1/1. It is extremely unlikely that the mafia can kill both remaining town members in one night. Unless they come out with proof that they can, I would strongly advise you to side with town.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Sabrar » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:41 pm UTC

JackHK wrote:If jimbob roleblocks the mafia member, and they try and kill jimbob, whose action succeeds?

No comment on the specifics but generally a roleblock only makes sense if it resolves first and blocks any kind of actions taken by the target.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:41 pm UTC

FQJA: Also, it's worth noting that there's nothing in any of the dead mafia's descriptions about recruitment. Hmmmm....

I guess this either implies that there's something very wrong with my logic, or that the town->mafia conversion is part of one of the town's role descriptions. In which case, I wish they'd mentioned it earlier! :P

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:52 pm UTC

I've looked on MafiaUniverse and found any Role-Changing roles I could find:
Recruiting Mason doesn't fit - no masons
Evil Mastermind requires cult
Actually, I'll just look at those that can turn town into mafia:
If moody is targeted by mafia at might, do they become mafia? 8-)
Role Swapper? Dunno...
Sasquatch kinda fits.
Silversmith would work if adnapemit had had the chance to kill someone last night...
Likewise for Yakuza...

There are rather too many options. :( Hmmmmm.....

I'm tempted to lynch jimbob, just because he did target adnapemit last night.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Madge » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:55 pm UTC

Yeah I think my post makes it pretty clear I'm siding with town today, because I lose unless mafia has a proposal that leads to them winning today, in which case I'll side with them.

Mafia is only going to offer me that proposal if they're confident they'll win because it'll out them otherwise.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:58 pm UTC

Haven't had a chance to look myself, but were there any mafia-aligned roles that did some kind of unblockable recruit, possibly with a suicide element?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Madge » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:04 pm UTC

Yakuza in epicmafia.com would recruit and suicide, but if adnapemit was blocked....????

Might have been an unblockable recruit for balance reasons.

That said, moody would be a natural recruitment choice. I wouldn't trust any past info.... >_<
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:09 pm UTC

The problem with Yakuza is that I think Sabrar would have revealed that adnapemit or dim or whoever was a Yakuza when they flipped.
It's why I'm leaning towards Silversmith, which is similar, but it's a Town who turns into Mafia when they are killed by mafia. As far as I know, the only opportunity a hypothetical Silversmith has had to be turned after D4 is last night, which would mean either jimbob is lying about blocking adnapemit, or jimbob's block failed for some other reason.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:10 pm UTC

EBWOP: mafiauniverse will only display on mobile if you check "request desktop site" or however your phone says it.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:12 pm UTC

Are there any other "recruit and suicide" roles people know about?

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:15 pm UTC

Great :( . If adnapemit was a secret unblockable yakuza, I think anybody apart from Madge could be scum. Suzaku's result means that Madge isn't, and that's the only information we can rely on, I think. (More thinking to be done later).

Preview-ninja - we would have to be dealing with an unblockable kill, if there's a silversmith around, and the same logic still applies (anybody could have been the silversmith).
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:22 pm UTC

@Sabrar: A) Do you reveal everything about a character's role when they flip?
B) Is it possible that somebody was the Silversmith and was not aware of this fact until this morning?

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Suzaku » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:02 pm UTC

Let's see if I can find any light to shine on this:

I'm going to assume that Madge is being honest, because if she isn't then we have lost this so badly and we deserve to because that is the best long-con scum game in the whole history of scum games.

Given that assumption, we can safely conclude there's only one Mafia remaining.
Reasoning: If there were were two Mafia remaining then they would be offering Madge the win because they'd have a majority with Madge today and an absolute majority tomorrow. Everyone has posted since day started. No one is offering Madge the win, therefore there is only one Mafioso left.
If Madge is scum then this doesn't hold, as scum.Madge + scum!other would not have a majority.

Therefore, and as Jack has already pointed out, exactly one of {Jack, jim, moody, Suzaku} is scum. That is, either I'm lying about my result, and I'm the scummer, or my result is accurate and one of the others is scum. Note that this doesn't exonerate Madge in and of itself, because it contains "Madge != scum" in the premisses, so to so conclude would be begging the question.
However, regardless of Madge's alignment, there's still one scum in that set. Ergo, for scum!Madge to exist we must assume there are two remaining scum, which does not seem very likely.

Madge's N4 (D5) question:
Madge wrote:Q: As of the beginning of d5, how many people does town need to lynch, kill, or otherwise neutralise to win the game?
A: One.

This would strongly seem to indicate that at that time adnapemit was the sole remaining scum. Meaning any alignment change happened either D5 or N5, when adnap was supposed to be roleblocked.

Madge's N3 (D4) question:
Q: How many town players are currently alive?
A: At the beginning of Day 4 there are 5 Town-aligned players remaining in the game.


Again I think I'm rehashing Jack here, but here goes.
Alive at that time were:
  • matt96 - lynched D5, Independent
  • Madge - Still alive
  • moody7277 - Still alive
  • adnapemit - killed N5, Mafia
  • JackHK - Still alive
  • Suzaku - Still alive
  • dimochka - lynched D4, Mafia
  • generalz - killed N4, Town
  • jimbobmacdoodle - Still alive

Of the 5 still alive, 4 were town (generalz was town so deduct one from 5). Again assuming Madge is not scum, 4 of the 4 alive other than Madge were town at that time.

You know, far and away the easiest solution to this is that Madge is the last scum and has been since D1. Avoids all requirements for changing alignments or other bastardry, and is AFAICS consistent with everything we actually know.

Can anyone falsify this hypothesis? For example, was there every a time that scum!Madge could have won (or almost certainly won) but didn't do so?

If we continue with the independent!Madge assumption, then the fact that we don't know anything about any possible recruitment or alignment switch method means it's an out-and-out crap shoot. We have no way of deducing who was turned, and only posts from D6 will be of use in analysis, as prior to D5 that person would have been town.

So, some speculation:
adnap had a secret, unblockable, Yakuza-style suicide recruit: Anyone (except Madge) could have been recruited. Unlikely, though, as the full role names for dead players seem to have been provided in all cases, if not the power descriptions.

jimbob's RB failed and adnap targeted a Silversmith: again, anyone could have been recruited. Would a Silversmith (who knew) claim to be a Silversmith? Hmm, tough call. I suspect not, because a claimed Silversmith would be a huge lynch target if no scummy player was found, and would almost certainly be lynched if a scum died to NK even early game when SK or some other explanation was available. So this option doesn't require bastardry, as the player may well have known and not said anything.

The difference between Yakuza!adnap and Silversmith!someone from everyone else's viewpoint, is that it is impossible to guess who adnap may have chosen to recruit (genuine WIFOM circular argument). However, it may be possible to at least narrow down who she may have tried to kill and just got lucky that they happened to be the Silversmith.

Also, we may be able to reasonably narrow down the candidates for Silversmith, based on other known abilities etc. If there is any overlap between likely targets and likely Silversmiths, that may be (purely on the numbers) the best place to find a lynch candidate.

This needs further thought, but it's midnight now and I need to sleep.

See youse all in the morning.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Sabrar » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:22 pm UTC

JackHK wrote:A) Do you reveal everything about a character's role when they flip?
Not necessarily.

JackHK wrote:B) Is it possible that somebody was the Silversmith and was not aware of this fact until this morning?
This is, of course, possible.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:30 pm UTC

Hmmm, so it is technically possible that adnapemit was a Yakuza who was unaware of this fact.

I suppose, if we go with the recruit/suicide theory (but I will look into the idea that Madge is flippin' amazing at this game and has duped us all :D ), that we might speculate on who adnapemit was likely to target overnight for the night-kill.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby moody7277 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:49 pm UTC

Well, looks like my plan from D5 is one of those gang aft ugly things. OTOH, given all the information available yesterday, there was no way it shouldn't have worked except for possibly lying!Madge or lying!jimbob. On the gripping hand, Madge has been straight with us all game (and even has made statements that make her look bad) and jimbob has seemed to be effective in blocking matt one day I can recall. So we come back to theory people are developing about how after all other scum have been killed suddenly a new scum appears.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:55 pm UTC

@Suzaku: one reason I find it hard to imagine that Madge was scum all along is that it puts us at 7/4/1 at the start, does it not? Even then the one independent is rather Mafia-aligned. I can't see how that would be a balanced game, even with a Usurper.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:55 pm UTC

I was about to post the following spoilered content to look at why adnapemit died. However, my conclusion was, it doesn't matter, so I've spoilered it to avoid clogging up the text. The reason why it doesn't matter is because unless we have 5 (or more) scum during the course of the game (including a theoretical recruit), which seems too extreme, there is exactly one scum remaining, and that must be one of {Suzaku, me, moody, or JackHK}, (unless Suzaku got false results, which seems unlikely). If this isn't the case, please explain why and therefore point out why Madge could be scum, as everybody seems to think that she could be.
Spoiler:
Taking a slightly different angle to look at, why did adnapemit die? I think answering this should help narrow down the possibilities. Obviously, if she was a yakuza type role, or hit a silversmith, this would explain things.

Alternatively, she could have been the target of a town-aligned kill. This seems unlikely, as nobody has claimed it. She could also have been killed by an unexpected effect of someone's ability. To my knowledge, I am the only one who targeted her last night, and it seems unlikely that I have a hidden kill - I targeted matt twice, and he didn't die, and this was my second time targeting adnapemit as well, so it's neither the first time she was targeted by my ability she dies, nor is it because I targeted someone twice, since matt didn't die either. Nobody else has died unexpectedly either so there is no indication that anybody else's ability could cause it either.

I guess there could have been an indie aligned kill, but matt couldn't have been the user, and Madge seems unlikely to have used one based on the fact that she hadn't made a guess yet, and has not claimed to have killer adnapemit either. Possibly lying!Madge could have done. I can't really speculate as to what reasons other-type-of-indie!Madge would have had.

As a side point, I'm fairly confident that Madge can't be scum. The reason for this is that Suzaku said that one of moody, me, or Jack are scum based on using generalz's ability. Assuming that there is exactly one scum remaining, that means that Madge cannot be the scum (although any one of the rest of us could be). If there is more than one scum remaining, that would have meant a total of 5 players being scum, which really feels a bit on the extreme side (I could buy 4, but not 5), even if one is a recruit of some kind. Also as an aside, I guess we can't rule out the possibility that Madge's win-condition isn't what she says it is, but I doubt that should make any difference to what we do, although it does mean we can't necessarily fully trust everything Madge says.

I'm out of any other sensible ideas that could suggest why adnapemit died, other than being directly tied to a recruit. If anybody has any other ideas, please suggest them. If we assume that adnapemit died because she recruited someone (intentionally or otherwise), we can rule out the other possible cases of someone being scum from the beginning, and a recruit happening earlier in the game. Unfortunately, I'm not sure how that extra information helps us.
Suzaku suggested looking at who adnapemit might have recruited, so I'll do that next. As noted above, Madge cannot be scum, so I'll ignore her for now.
JackHK - Been fairly quiet for the past couple of days. Not sure what adnapemit would hope to gain from recruiting him particularly. Jack wasn't really a risk to whoever adnapemit recruited, so wasn't someone she needed to deal with by recruiting him. On the other hand we could think that and therefore ignore him as a suspect, so yeah... going round in circles there.
moody - confirmed as effectively town by generalz's flip. Under normal circumstances, that makes him an obvious recruit, since typically, town doesn't know about recruits immediately, and so they'd be not be suspected immediately. However, in this case, adnapemit would probably have realised that town would suspect a recruit, so that rules out that as a reason. After that, the same logic applies to moody as to Jack.
Suzaku - has already claimed town super backup, which meant he'd gained generalz's ability, and therefore the only piece of investigative info available to Town directly. On the other hand, with only 4 players left apart from Suzaku, the 3 including one scum isn't a great return on information, so a relatively minor threat. Also has the ability to hand out locks and so give town members the ability to self-protect, which makes night kills less reliable. With presumably only one night left after last night (assuming 2 deaths by the end of tonight), this is less useful again, since nobody can have a chance to usefully use any that Suzaku would subsequently give out before LYLO. So, minimal threat to scum, but more than moody or JackHK.
me - (I'll try to look at this objectively, but someone else should probably do this analysis anyway). My two abilities are a bit of a threat to scum, if I can guess right. Either a) I successfully prevent a night kill as a doctor, and presumably confirm someone else as town, reducing places for scum to hide, or b) I successfully roleblock the killer, thus confirming the mafia, if we assume that scum won't withhold the kill. Of course, both suffer from the problem of scum withholding the kill, so Town would have to decide between, a) did scum withhold the kill, b) am I scum and lying about my target, or c) was my target the killer/targeted for the kill. On the other hand, there's also the fact that I have to not vote to use my ability, which could have played on adnapemit's mind. By me withholding my vote, there are fewer town that the recruit needs to convince for a mislynch/no lynch. Not sure if that would have made much difference, as so far town has been pretty unanimous in its decisions.

@moody/Suzaku - have I missed any useful abilities you've absorbed/inherited?

Looking at people who are threats to a targeted recruit, I'd say that myself and Suzaku are the only real threats (i.e. our abilities are the two most useful in the current circumstances to Town), and therefore would be the most obvious recruit candidates. On the other hand, I don't think that either of us are such significant threats that we can rule out the other two, because as noted adnapemit might have taken the view that town would think that scum would recruit the more dangerous players and therefore recruit a less dangerous one.

I think the exact same logic works for people who might have been the night kill target. adnapemit would most likely have tried to kill one of the biggest threats to scum (me or Suzaku), and therefore we would be the most obvious people to have been unannounced silversmiths and consequently have flipped sides. Again, however, I'm not certain we can predict who adnapemit would target for the night kill - e.g. I didn't expect generalz to die, because his flip confirmed two players as town.

In summary, I still have no real further clue as to who is scum. My logic keeps going round in circles of "this is the obvious move, so scum wouldn't do that, which means it's not the obvious move, which means scum would do that" etc. :(
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:01 pm UTC

EBWOP: Was rereading that first paragraph after submitting it and I realised that there is some information that may be relevant in why adnapemit died after all: if the scum from amongst the four possibles was scum before today, we should be able to see some clues prior to that. On the other hand, given Madge's answer posted on D5, (and the continued assumption of Madge being truthful), there cannot have been anybody other than adnapemit who was scum, and thus any recruit must have happened during D5 at the earliest, so any clues prior to today are likely to be scarce.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:06 pm UTC

The problem for us town is that we can't even delay and No lynch because then it's in Madge's interest to work against Town. So we kinda need to get it right today.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Madge » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:34 pm UTC

Yep, if you guys no lynch I'm going to make my mission this game to burn town to the ground.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:40 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Yep, if you guys no lynch I'm going to make my mission this game to burn town to the ground.


Yeah, it's in your best interest for town to lynch someone today, because it's your only way to win. 8-) Threatening to destroy Town if we don't comply is of course simply your optimal play to ensure that we go along. :D :roll:

But I need to sleep. I'll talk more tomorrow.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Madge » Thu Sep 08, 2016 12:48 am UTC

I am so happy, I just to sit around and make big threats.

I need to figure out which question to ask to help town in a 1/1/1 kingmaker scenario and also which question to ask to help scum in a "town NLs or otherwise screws me over" situation. I'm sure Sabrar wouldn't mind me submitting two questions, one to use in case of NL and one to use otherwise, so I can do this no sweat.

If I had to put money down on scum, it'd be suzaku, and I'm not sure why, just a feeling.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:54 am UTC

Slept on it a bit, and I'm pretty certain that logic is no longer going to help us particularly, due to the late stage of the recruit, beyond no need to worry about Madge. That means going back to look at behaviour over the course of the day, I think, as stated by someone else (Suzaku?).

I'll try to do that in a few hours, as a first pass (can't easily do it via phone). So, a few questions for everyone to keep us going in the meantime (kind of already indirectly asked): assume for a moment that you were in adnapemit's shoes last night and had an unblockable recruit, who would you have recruited and why? What if it was a kill instead?

I think for a night kill (not expecting to die that night), I'd have gone with moody as a confirmed town, though Suzaku was not far off for the same reason as why Suzaku would probably have been my recruit of choice. His ability could probably cause the most harm to scum's chances if anyone else was recruited.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:57 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:So, a few questions for everyone to keep us going in the meantime (kind of already indirectly asked): assume for a moment that you were in adnapemit's shoes last night and had an unblockable recruit, who would you have recruited and why? What if it was a kill instead?


See, I would have targeted you, jimbob. For the recruit, because you've contributed so much for town during the game that it'd be hard to believe you were scum, and for the night kill because you can just keep blocking adnapemit for as long as we need to lynch her.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby Suzaku » Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:57 pm UTC

I'm too wiped out for in depth thought this evening, but:
adnap said something like 'You should probably lynch jimbob' at the end of yesterday. At the time I wrote it off to scum!adnap just trolling before the curtains came down. Now, if we go with the Yakuza!adnap theory I'm not so sure.
Either makes jim the most or the least likely recruit depending where you get off that circular-logic roundabout.

If I had been in her position and forced to choose a recruit, I'd likely have picked Jack, I think. Reason being that he was kind of 'town-by-default' rather than having done anything super townie. So any change in behaviour due to the recruit would likely be less noticeable.

If I'd been adnap looking to kill someone, it would definitely have been one of moody or jim, moody as effectively conftown, and jim as active, extremely townie, and with a nasty power. Swinging that a bit toward moody would have been jim's voting restriction, thinking about it, as leaving him alive and as town requires him to choose between voting or using his power. A forced error there could be game changing.

Don't know if this is much help to anyone, but I'm for bed, so let me know in the morning.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 6

Postby JackHK » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:09 pm UTC

I really think a Silversmith!"Town" is much more likely than a Yakuza!adnap, just because we received all the important information from Sabrar when everyone else flipped. I think it would be very odd if suddenly Sabrar withheld information like that.

(Of course, this happens to work out well for how good I look, according to Suzaku, but oh well)

Among Suzaku, moody, and jimbob... Hmmmm. There being a Silversmith would explain why adnap died, of course. The odd thing is it doesn't explain why jim's roleblock didn't work. It would be very weird if, for example, adnap targeted Silversmith!moody and then jimbob's roleblock just sort of failed for no apparent reason.

But if it was Silversmith!jimbob, it might make more sense for, when adnap targets jimbob, his roleblock can't stop the Silversmith effect taking place? Maybe.

So I think if it is a Silversmith we're dealing with, jimbob is the most likely candidate.

But are there other roles that can turn town into mafia that fit what we know?


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