Trial of the Pariahs - Game Over

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby JackHK » Mon Aug 15, 2016 7:39 pm UTC

Interesting. Unfortunate regarding Conman, of course.

I feel I should reveal one of my powers. I am a Sensor, meaning that I can find out how many people who voted for the lynch target are mafia-aligned, once per game. I used this power, and can reveal that exactly one of Carlington, adnapemit, Suzaku, moody7277 is mafia-aligned.

Sorry I couldn't post more often, am in fact performing a concert right now. Will react more later.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:08 pm UTC

Ok, a mislynch, but I can't help but feel that we didn't lose much in terms of powers at least, and nobody died overnight, which is probably good, as long as it doesn't hide a cult :?

Right, I have nothing to claim at this stage, and am unlikely to vote again today. What I would like to know is to those who did not vote on D1: why not? If you had voted for someone, who, and why? That's dimochka, generalz, JackHK, and matt96. Madge, I understand that you had little reason to vote yesterday, but feel free to answer if you wish to.

I stand by my decision to pseudo-vote for ConMan, based on what he'd posted up to the end of the day. As for those who did actually vote, it looks like they all more or less have the same reasoning as me, so I can't really fault any of them. Jack's claim that there was one scum on the wagon doesn't really surprise me. Based on my previous reads post, that would be moody, from my point of view, if I don't take any further info into account, though I'm not going to jump on him just yet, especially given that we don't even know if Jack is telling the truth.

As for generalz's claim, I'm not sure. I'm going to need to go back and re-read SirG and Jack, as well as bear in mind whether Madge could be lying. If I had to pick, my gut is telling me that it is SirG, but I don't really know why, possibly because of his drilling on dimochka. I think there's a reasonable chance that generalz is making up the claim, but claiming early and first does give him some measure of town points, in my opinion.

Speaking of Madge, would you be willing to disclose your question and answer, please?

No further thoughts for now, as my mind's not really up to any further analysis. I'll try and get some more stuff posted on my journey to/from work tomorrow.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:34 pm UTC

No time for a long post right now.

I am a lie-detector, and dimochka is lying about not being scum (not that that helps us with today's lynch).

From my perspective, at least one of JackHK, generalz, and Madge is mafia (probably not Madge). If JackHK is telling the truth, then one of {Carlington, adnapemit, Suzaku, moody} is mafia. Obviously we need to analyze their content, but the first thing that stands out is that Jack is the overlap between these results: if we kill him, then either we kill a scum, or we narrow down generalz' list and get confirmation of Jack's result.

Interesting night result. Not sure why there was no night-kill, also not sure whether roles who might have blocked/prevented the kill should claim as such (normally a doctor claim wouldn't be a good idea this point, but since we already have two powerful investigative roles claimed, claiming doctor won't necessarily make you a target).

Either Sabrar modified ConMan's role to make it day-use and prevent being lynched instead of prevent posting, or there are two very similar roles in the game. I'm guessing the former, since the original Silencer role doesn't sound very useful for a townie, although it would be odd to have a day-use power that has no effect until the following day.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby moody7277 » Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:54 pm UTC

Well, that kind of makes the next two lynches easy. I was going to wait until dimochka posted to say this, but SirGabriel's post makes what I have to report a bit redundant. I got a little present last night, a medkit. I assume dimochka would have claimed to have sent it to me. There's just one tiny issue with it:

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My role is absorber, and so when dimochka targeted me, I received a copy of his power with a description of it's use, which included the fact that the inventions are worthless. This was pretty much SirG's guess. I feel that since this vindicates SirG, that means based on generalz's list, I take the following action.

Vote: JackHK
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby JackHK » Mon Aug 15, 2016 9:09 pm UTC

I don't have time to do much more than react right now, so here goes:

I mean, I don't like the "lynch me" plan. It's unfortunate that mine and generalz's lists don't share a name. But...
If me and generalz are both telling the truth, we have 3 mafia, don't we? dimochka, his, and mine. Is 3 the usual number of scum for a 12 player game?

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby dimochka » Mon Aug 15, 2016 9:38 pm UTC

Really quick post because I don't have much time. Moody - I did not send you an item. I sent an item to Carlington (and it was a different item). Interestingly I can send a medkit, but that's not what I sent. There are several possibilities here but I can try to get into them later tonight.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby ConMan » Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:13 pm UTC

I'm hurt. Really hurt. Mostly in the heart, but also in the neck where you tied the noose. *dies*

(Also, mod, might want to change the day in the title.)
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Madge » Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:19 pm UTC

Question: How many factions are in this game?

Answer: There are 4 factions in the game currently.


I was warned against defining faction when I tried to define it in a previous question, so I'm assuming Sabrar is answering it based on good faith. Possibly two mafia factions, possible SK counts as a faction, etc.

@whoever asked me who I'd have voted for: I was never going to vote. I usually don't vote on D1 when I'm town, let alone when I'm claimed indie. Either town gets pissed because I add to a town wagon or mafia gets pissed because I add to a mafia wagon. No faction should get pissed at me for not voting considering that at the moment voting isn't terribly helpful to me.

Once I post my guess (either tonight or tomorrow with the way things are going!) then I'm gonna be voting,

I am LOVING the intrigue. Carlington, did you receive anything??????
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Carlington » Tue Aug 16, 2016 12:37 am UTC

I did not receive anything in the night.

We have a lovely web of claims and counter-claims to pick through, which presents a challenge. I feel bad for Madge - self-confessed lover of intrigue and games that hang on pulling apart threads of logic, bound to dispassion in a game that's shaping up to have plenty of both.
Sucks about the ConMan lynch, obviously FMPOV there's scum in {JackHK, Suzaku, moody}.
Madge's Q&A (seven words, eleven vowels...it's an old crumb, sir, but it checks out) leaves me wondering where all the night kills were for so many factions. SK or multiple scum with kill seems unlikely.

dimochka wrote:Carlington - two questions. 1. what did you mean by that statement? That you won't share anything about that role? Or that this was the wrong time? 2. can you explain why you find matt scummy?

1. That I won't be saying anything about my role for the time being. 2. His continued focus on what questions Madge should ask when he hadn't posted reads. I need to update my reads, but I need to factor in my thoughts about everything that's happened since my last post to do it properly. For now, know that matt96 isn't in Lynchable anymore.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby matt96 » Tue Aug 16, 2016 1:41 am UTC

I'm going to try to compile all the things that were claimed so far today into a single post, with reactions to follow.
1. Generalz claims that his power Dreamer, gave him that at least one of {Madge, SirGabriel, JackHK} is scum.
2. JackHK claims Sensor, and that exactly 1 of {Carlington, adnapemit, Suzaku, moody7277} is mafia aligned.
3. SirGabriel claims Lie Detector, and says that dimochka is lying about not being scum.
4. Moody claims absorber and having recieved a fake medkit.
5. Dimochka claims to have sent Carlington an item other than a medkit.
6. Madge Claims that there are 4 factions in the game.
7. Carlington denies getting anything in the night.

Interestingly while looking at silencer from ConMan's flip, I found a role that would seem to fit with what happened with Dimochka, the Magistrate, as the language was arrested, and it was publicly announced at the start of the day, which would be interesting as (and this part is wild speculation) it could indicate that this game is somewhat themed, with there being two variants on each type of power in play. Silencer would match up with the Magistrate in that the both prevent their targets from voting the next day along with another effect, both Lie Detectors and Oracles submit a statement/question to the mod and get a useful response, Sensor and Dreamer would match in that they both can receive a list of players with a number of scum on it. There is a claim of having absorbed the power of a false inventor and a claim of inventor.

Separately, I would like to note that I think I found jimbob's breadcrumb'd/soft claimed/the-one-that-makes-sense-with-what-he-has-said-about-it power, and don't see how it would be more useful to scum than a much more common scum role, it would be about as useful as giving town a silencer... but, given what I know about what happened last night, I'd put him as a probable townie, else incredibly devious scum.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Aug 16, 2016 2:11 am UTC

Carlington wrote:We have a lovely web of claims and counter-claims to pick through, which presents a challenge.

Regarding dimochka, there are too many possible (based on publicly available knowledge - from my point of view he must be scum) explanations to list them all, but here's a general overview of the possibilities where he's telling the truth: moody and I are both scum (though not necessarily both mafia), either Carlington is scum or dimochka was redirected or dimochka was roleblocked, and if Carlington was redirected or roleblocked, either the mafia did the redirecting/roleblocking or his gift was redirected to scum by a townie or moody made a bold claim that he knew was likely to be countered by both dimochka and the real recipient.
If Carlington and moody are both mafia, then that would make JackHK and myself also scum, which would mean (assuming there are three mafia and the fourth scum has no teammates) that the entire scum team outed themselves in an attempt to get dimochka lynched.
If Carlington and moody are not teammates, there is no mafia roleblocker or mafia redirector, and no townies redirected dimochka to moody or his teammates, then that would mean moody made a falseclaim that was almost guaranteed to be countered by multiple people.
If a townie redirected dimochka to someone else, then that townie should claim; if there's no such claim, I think we can safely assume that it didn't happen.
If there is a mafia roleblocker or redirector, then there is a relatively common role in an unusual role mafia.
Alternatively, moody, Carlington, and I could all be telling the truth while dimochka is lying scum. This seems by far the most plausible explanation for the claims.

Carlington wrote:obviously FMPOV there's scum in {JackHK, Suzaku, moody}.

Is there a reason you left off adnapemit?

Carlington wrote:Madge's Q&A (seven words, eleven vowels...it's an old crumb, sir, but it checks out) leaves me wondering where all the night kills were for so many factions. SK or multiple scum with kill seems unlikely.

Town+mafia+Madge already covers three factions. There's only one faction unaccounted for, which I'm guessing means we have another non-serial-killer independent. No clue what said independent's win condition might be, but if I had to guess, I'd say it's another role like Madge's which can win with either town or scum and poses no serious threat until endgame.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Carlington » Tue Aug 16, 2016 4:41 am UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
Carlington wrote:obviously FMPOV there's scum in {JackHK, Suzaku, moody}.

Is there a reason you left off adnapemit?

Yes, being that I was rushing to get a post out before work. Thanks for doing the legwork on breaking down those scenarios. Tonight I am going to sit down and both go over and error-check your post, and try to look at the claims myself and post my thoughts. I'll also likely provide updated reads and reasoning.

Also, regarding that breakdown: as I understand it you have reason to dismiss a large proportion of those possibilities, thanks to the events of last night.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Aug 16, 2016 7:47 am UTC

Hmm... Lots to react to, but I'm phone posting, so I'm likely to miss a load of stuff.

First off a question for dimochka: does your role allow you to invent anything, or is it limited in some way?

Before I forget, Matt would you explain the bit which made me think you could be an independent yesrerday, please?

Based on Madge's claim, I reckon the likely game start split was 7-3-1-1. Assuming one kill a night, that gave two mislynches before town needs indie help to lynch. Not sure if that would be too easy for town, so I'm guessing there's something anti-town that can mess with it, such as at least one indie benefiting from a scum win somehow.

I haven't done complete logical deductions on the claims yet, but one thing that I think needs at least considering is the possibility that SirG and moody are scum buddies, say a magistrate and some kind of redirector/roleblocker ability. Assuming we believe them, their claims essentially convict dimochka for tomorrow's lynch, so all they need to do is convince town to mislynch somebody else today. That way, when town!dimochka eventually flips, it'll be too late to lynch lying!SirG. This whole plan also only requires two of the presumed three mafia to false claim, so it doesn't guarantee a scum loss if it goes badly.

Other thoughts: dimochka could be a false inventor and not know it, SirG could get false results etc. Remember, this game was labelled as bastard so I don't think we can be 100 percent sure about any results.

Almost at work. More thoughts later, hopefully.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Madge » Tue Aug 16, 2016 7:57 am UTC

Jimbob makes a good point, I think given the situation we're in vis-a-vis dimochka, it would be most useful to lynch someone else in the chain of events who will be able to verify things or confirm an ability. I'm not sure who'd be most useful there though.

A lie detector is super useful though considering practically everyone made a "I'm not scum" statement (stupid in this game, if you're scum, because of COURSE there's a lie detector in role madness)
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby dimochka » Tue Aug 16, 2016 8:25 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:First off a question for dimochka: does your role allow you to invent anything, or is it limited in some way?

Limited to five items: binoculars (watcher), gps (tracker), medkit (doctor), vest (protection), surveillance bug (find out if someone has a chat ability).

I won't really be available till wednesday late afternoon (PST) as I mentioned a few times before, but I can definitely make short posts here and there, and answer any questions.

I'm perfectly fine with being lynched D3 iff we have a clear plan going forward (which will obviously depend on future flips).
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Suzaku » Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:25 am UTC

Just a short note to let you ladies and gentry know I'm reading. Update will be up after I get home, hopefully undelayed by the incoming typhoon.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby generalz » Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:42 am UTC

Quick reply to jimbob: I didnt vote on D1 because I didnt have enough data to incriminate someone more than anyone else. Now with all the claims it starts being interesting...
Quick note about my claim: There is AT LEAST one Mafia on the list (could even be the 3 of them but I doubt it).

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Aug 16, 2016 11:17 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Based on Madge's claim, I reckon the likely game start split was 7-3-1-1. Assuming one kill a night, that gave two mislynches before town needs indie help to lynch. Not sure if that would be too easy for town, so I'm guessing there's something anti-town that can mess with it, such as at least one indie benefiting from a scum win somehow.

I haven't done complete logical deductions on the claims yet, but one thing that I think needs at least considering is the possibility that SirG and moody are scum buddies, say a magistrate and some kind of redirector/roleblocker ability. Assuming we believe them, their claims essentially convict dimochka for tomorrow's lynch, so all they need to do is convince town to mislynch somebody else today. That way, when town!dimochka eventually flips, it'll be too late to lynch lying!SirG. This whole plan also only requires two of the presumed three mafia to false claim, so it doesn't guarantee a scum loss if it goes badly.

For one thing, no one died last night, so if we mislynch today and one person dies tonight, we still have a chance. For another thing, moody's claim can be easily verified, assuming I'm not the only one with a targeted night action. If anyone has a targeted night action, then you should strongly consider using it on moody tonight, especially if you're not going to claim your ability today. Then tomorrow, if moody is scum, he has to guess what he was targeted with. Obviously, having me target him won't help anything, since I'm accused of being his scumbuddy.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Other thoughts: dimochka could be a false inventor and not know it, SirG could get false results etc. Remember, this game was labelled as bastard so I don't think we can be 100 percent sure about any results.

Good point, I never considered that option. But if moody is town, I think his result has to be trustworthy: if dimochka didn't sent a medkit, then moody wouldn't have received a medkit, and if dimochka didn't know he was a false inventor, moody wouldn't know he was a false inventor.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Carlington » Tue Aug 16, 2016 1:13 pm UTC

SirG, your breakdown of the possibilities surround dimochka checks out, AFAICT. I did find one you missed though:
Role Thief moody, knowing that ConMan was a mislynch, wants some damning evidence on the second-most voted player. He steals/blocks dimochka, knowing that in the morning he can fakeclaim Absorber, and say that he absorbed the power when dimochka targeted him, and that it was a fake. No matter what dimochka claims, his claimed target (in this case, me) will claim they never received anything, because dimochka was blocked, and so I become an unwitting pawn in honest townie dimochka's demise. Meanwhile, Magistrate SirGabriel arrests dimochka, and fakeclaims Lie Detector, claiming to have found a lie in dimochka's statement that he's not scum. Since we've sealed the lynch on dimochka for D3, as why wouldn't we lynch such a target, the scumteam is free to push a lynch on whatever easy target shows up, knowing that the hard work for the last lynch has been done and they only need make it through this day.

I mean, I'm not saying I think it's likely...

YO I NOTICED THIS JUST BEFORE POSTING: jimbob fully already postulated the above, I just skimmed by it when reading. Awkward. :oops:

Couple of things that have jumped out at me in terms of updated reads: I didn't like how quickly Suzaku followed me in switching to vote and lynch ConMan yesterday. Certainly it's not outright damning, but it felt off. Similarly, I don't like how quick moody was to vote at the start of this day. There's plenty of time to work through the possibilities before putting hasty votes down.

In an ironic turn of events, given how much I was against people focusing on it yesterday...Madge, you can be of great help in sorting through this mess, I believe. Do you think, for example, you could get an answer to "how many players attempted to send items to other players N1"?

That's all for now but I'll be vaguely around and checking in so feel free to throw stuff at me and I'll say stuff back.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby adnapemit » Tue Aug 16, 2016 1:43 pm UTC

Quick post with a few comments, I've had a busy day.
generalz wrote:There is AT LEAST one Mafia on the list (could even be the 3 of them but I doubt it).

I did notice that part since JackHK result claim said exactly one for his list. I highly doubt all three are scum. There are two really unlikely options, that all threes are scum and that JackHK isn't and the other two are(with a third scum in Jack's list). Other combinations I can think of are quite possible and I will probably look closer at all of them tomorrow.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: is the possibility that SirG and moody are scum buddies, say a magistrate and some kind of redirector/roleblocker ability
That is a weird theory. Rather than prevent the lynch it would be easier to just say dimochka is lying and have him lynched. Much less complicated, much more likely. I'm not ruling out a SirG and moody combination(although if dimochka flipped town then they would have revealed themselves) but I don't think either of them arrested dim.(Aaand Carlington also thinks it's possible...maybe I'm underestimating scum)

SirGabriel wrote:If a townie redirected dimochka to someone else, then that townie should claim; if there's no such claim, I think we can safely assume that it didn't happen.
I pick this part of the post, but I'm referring to all the possibilities listed. You didn't list independent with roleblock/redirection. I don't know if this would actually be included in the game but I thought I'd just mention it.

Madge wrote:Answer: There are 4 factions in the game currently.
Currently? I don't like that wording... This could be read as "there could be less if people die" but could also be "tomorrow there will be 5" :shock:
But probably not.

Ok, Madge gave us a result. No one died (which when added to all the other claims made today) doesn't make any sense. But for now I feel like Madge isn't an immediate threat. I don't know if she is telling the truth or not but if we had 3 kills last night I'd be voting her immediately.

SirGabriel wrote: if we kill him, then either we kill a scum, or we narrow down generalz' list and get confirmation of Jack's result.
If we could guarantee their results were accurate if they flipped town, I would think this is a good idea. However I don't think we should waste a lynch on someone who could be town because someone else(who could be scum) said that there is a possibility(most likely 1in 3 chance) that he could be scum.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Aug 16, 2016 1:58 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:For one thing, no one died last night, so if we mislynch today and one person dies tonight, we still have a chance.

Ignore this part, I wasn't thinking clearly this morning. jimbob was saying we can't afford three mislynches, which is probably true if we don't manage to block another nightkill.

adnapemit wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:If a townie redirected dimochka to someone else, then that townie should claim; if there's no such claim, I think we can safely assume that it didn't happen.
I pick this part of the post, but I'm referring to all the possibilities listed. You didn't list independent with roleblock/redirection. I don't know if this would actually be included in the game but I thought I'd just mention it.

You're right, I forgot. I had a reason that I thought made both town and independent roleblocker/redirector implausible (can't remember what the reason was at the moment), but then I decided it was bad reasoning and took it out and left a gap. Independent roleblocker would have the same issue as no roleblocker, unless moody was the independent roleblocker. And I can't think of any non-serial-killer independent win conditions where roleblocker/redirector would be a useful ability.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Madge » Tue Aug 16, 2016 2:36 pm UTC

[quote="Carlington"Madge, you can be of great help in sorting through this mess, I believe. Do you think, for example, you could get an answer to "how many players attempted to send items to other players N1"?[/quote]

Posting from bed in my phone so excuse formatting and typos, but with all due respect I'm not town's errand girl. That question really doesn't help me personally very much.

I am going to have a bit of a hectic week this week (just today, among other things, I have spent about an hour and a half babysitting a plotter (giant printer), half an hour delivering documents and two hours recording the numbers on power poles, yes this is what a career in traffic engineering looks like....) so I'm probably not going to be able to put full energy into the best question as I tend to mull over such things in my downtime. I will probably ask about the kills, either how many multi use kills there are, how many people have a killing ability etc. If tonight is bloodless I'll ask about a cult probably the next day.

ies and gentry know I'm reading. Update will be up after I get home, hopefully undelayed by the incoming typhoon.


Typhoon?? Best of luck. Or are they a common occurrence for you?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby JackHK » Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:21 pm UTC

I fear I've helped make the situation très compliquée...

Okay, so FMPOV:
-IF generalz is telling the truth, then SirGabriel is scum. (Source, statement 1)
[the rest is just maybe]
THEN probably SirGabriel is lying about the lie detector, and dimochka is town adn telling the truth.
THEN moody is lying and so is Carlington.

Except this contradicts my result, unless one of moody or Carlington is neither town nor mafia...

FOS: generalz since their statement suggests a very unlikely scenario, FMPOV

Um,

Could SirGabriel be bussing dimochka? Then dimochka could be lying about his role, so there could be a cases where only one of Carlington and moody is lying. Maybe dimochka sent a real medkit to moody? I dunno....

OH.
Now I'm pretty certain adnapemit and Suzaku are town, since it's very likely that the mafia in my set is either moody or Carlington...

I haven't even considered the "generalz is lying" case. I'm too tired for this right now. :x 8-)

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Suzaku » Tue Aug 16, 2016 11:51 pm UTC

So I was delayed by the typhoon. Not a very big one, but my local train line got stopped due to the winds.

Hopefully I'll have time to put up a proper post over lunch today. This evening at the latest.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Suzaku » Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:25 pm UTC

OK, here's my summary of claims (I know it's already been done, but this is to get it straight in my head):

All conclusions are assuming truthful claims and no bastardy, redirection, etc.

generalz:
Claimed "Dreamer" - Either reveal one town OR get thre names with 1 or more being Mafia (Note wording is Mafia, not scum, not anti-town)
Claimed result: 1+ Mafia in {Madge, SirGabriel and JackHK}
Query: @generalz, does the wording specifically say Mafia, or does it say non-town, anti-town, or scum?
Conclusion: If we accept that Madge is indie, then one or both of SirG and JackHK are Mafia.

JackHK:
Claimed "Sensor" plus one other one-shot power. Sensor - Reveal how many of the lynch waggon are Mafia (Note wording is Mafia, not scum, not anti-town. Again.)
Claimed result: Exactly one Mafia in {Carlington, adnapemit, Suzaku, moody7277}
Query: @JackHK, does the wording specifically say Mafia, or does it say non-town, anti-town, or scum?
Conclusion: FMPOV one of {Carlington, adnapemit, moody7277} is Mafia. FEEPOV, add me to that set.

jimbobmacdoodle:
Nothing to claim at this stage.

SirGabriel:
Claimed: Lie Detector
Claimed Result: "dimochka is lying about not being scum"
Query: @SirG, Why did you check that statement (if this information wouldn't weaken your ability to find liars on later nights)?
Conclusion: dim is not not scum, ergo is scum.

moody7277:
Claimed "Absorber" - recieve a copy of power targeted on moody.
Claimed result: Received medkit. Absorbed false inventor role - inventions are useless.
Query: @moody, were youinformed the dim sent the fake medkit, or just that you received it? Also, were you able to use the absorbed power last night or only tonight (if you wanted to use it at all)?
Conclusion: Whoever sent the medkit is likely scum. This is presumably dimochka, but there's no independant evidence of this.

dimochka:
Claimed "Inventor" - can send items.
Claimed result: Sent something (unspecified) to Carlington.
Conclusion: moody's fake medkit didn't come from dim. Carlington should have received something.

Madge:
Claimed "Oracle"
Claimed result: Q. How many factions are in this game? A. There are 4 factions in the game currently.
Conclusion: There are four factions, being Town, Mafia, Madge, and one other.

Carlington:
Claimed: Nothing as yet.
Claimed result: Didn't receive anything during the night.
Conclusion: dim must be lying about sending an item to Carlington.

matt96:
Claimed: Nothing
Claimed result: Nothing.
Conclusion: Null

adnapemit:
Claimed: Nothing
Claimed result: Nothing.
Conclusion: Null

Some overall conclusions we can draw from the above (excluding bastardry, redirection, chicanery, and other current unknowns):
One of SirG and dim is scum (at least).
Why? Either town!SirG is a lie detector with a FALSE result on scum!dim's "I am not scum" statement, or scum!SirG is lying about the result in order to mislynch town!dim. Possible that scum!SirG is bussing scum!dim in order to try and ride the townie points to victory.

One of Carlinton and dim is scum.
Why? Either town!dim sent something to scum!Carlington and C is lying about not receiving it, or town!Carlington is telling the truth about not receiving anything from lying scum!dim.

moody may be scum trying to implicate dim, but also could be town legitimately receiving a fake medkit from someone else (or from scum!dim).
I'm a little concerned that moody did not wait for dim to claim before claiming himself. If it were me I would probably have waited (given dim claimed inventor on D1) until dim claimed what he sent, and tried to catch him in a lie. As it stands, there's only moody's word that a) he received a medkit, and b) it was fake. And equally there's only dim's word that he didn't send a medkit to moody. (scum!dim could have sent the fake medkit but be claiming he sent something else to Carlington as a result of moody's claim).

I'm really not sure where we can take this, moving on. It seems very likely to me that there is some kind of result manipulation or redirection going on. And anyway, it's getting too late for me to fully engage all the thought processes I need to bring to bear to make sense out of this.

More tomorrow.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:30 pm UTC

Quick point to correct Suzaku on one thing:
Suzaku wrote:One of Carlinton and dim is scum.
Why? Either town!dim sent something to scum!Carlington and C is lying about not receiving it, or town!Carlington is telling the truth about not receiving anything from lying scum!dim.
You missed the case that town!dim could have tried to send something to town!Carlington but was roleblocked or redirected.

More later hopefully.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:38 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:SirGabriel:
Claimed: Lie Detector
Claimed Result: "dimochka is lying about not being scum"
Query: @SirG, Why did you check that statement (if this information wouldn't weaken your ability to find liars on later nights)?
Conclusion: dim is not not scum, ergo is scum.

I believed dim was scum. If I checked his "I am town" statement and found it to be false and claimed as much, he could just counterclaim that he was some kind of harmless independent. I felt that finding out whether he was scum was more useful than finding out whether he was town.

Also, since I think I forgot to mention this before: I can't use my ability on consecutive nights.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby moody7277 » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:00 pm UTC

Okay, deductions:

Exactly one of {SirG, dim} is scum. Both scum is not likely because there doesn't look to be a point in SirG bussing dim at this point. Both town -> lying town, which is stupid.

Probably one of {Carlington, dim} is scum.
--Both scum is ruled out because Carlington would have backed up dim's claim due to same reason as SirG above.
--town!dim/scum!Carl. Carlington would be lying about receiving a device from dimochka.
--scum!dim/town!Carl. dim's flailing, picks a recipient from {not scum} so as not to implicate scummates.
--both town looks to be ruled out because they have contradictory claims. this only works if, as previously speculated, a redirector exists. Not sure how to evaluate the probability of that.

Even in the event that a redirector switched targets from Carlington to me (and the reasoning behind that is a head scratcher), the fact the medkit is fake speaks poorly for dim. Given the concatenation of those two, I give a 80% chance of dim being scum. Would be my vote, except he's in the pokey.

If generalz is telling the truth, at least one of {SirG, JackHK, Madge} is scum.
--Madge is a declared independent with enough detail backing her up to be true.
--SirG is cleared by point 1 above.
--Therefore, JackHK is scum, hence my vote.

If generalz is lying scum (which I don't believe to be the case), the above is wine.

If JackHK is telling the truth, exactly one of {Carlington, adnapemit, Suzaku, moody7277} is scum
--FMPOV, I'm not scum.
--Carlington is more likely than not town based on point 2.
--Judging scum between {adnapemit,Suzaku} would be up to reads.

If JackHK is scum, the above is wine.

JackHK wrote:Maybe dimochka sent a real medkit to moody? I dunno....


Except that I know for certain, based on how my role power works, that the medkit I received is fake. I don't know who sent it to me, but dimochka was talking D1 about how he was going to prove he was town. He just didn't bank on me getting a copy of his power along with the device.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby moody7277 » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:07 pm UTC

Addendum for Suzaku:

Suzaku wrote:Also, were you able to use the absorbed power last night or only tonight (if you wanted to use it at all)?


Can only start using the power N2 and on. Wasn't planning on using it, but do you want a joke vig? Needle full of saline with a retractable tip?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:23 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Can only start using the power N2 and on. Wasn't planning on using it, but do you want a joke vig? Needle full of saline with a retractable tip?

Actually, that might not be a bad idea. You can simply declare today what you're going to send to whom, and if that person receives what you claim to send them, then we know you're telling the truth. dimochka simply needs to agree not to send the same item you're claiming to send (since doing so could mess up the results if there's a redirector).

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Aug 17, 2016 7:49 pm UTC

On the way home. Might do analysis tonight, depending on how I feel once back, but here are a couple of quick thoughts:

Something generalz said made me think he is town. As a result, I reckon at least one of SirG or Jack are scum. How dies this sound as a strategy: lynch SirG today. If he flips town, we lynch dimochka D3, and we have a very limited set of players for a second scum. If he's scum, dimochka is probably town. Tonight, somebody targets moody, either without saying they will, or who hasn't claimed yet. If moody can't confirm what he was targeted with, we lynch him at some point (D3 or D4 depending on whether we are lynching dimochka or not). Note that him being an absorber doesn't guarantee him as town, but I think it's more likely a town role. As a backup to this plan, moody and dimochka can coordinate to give gifts to different people as suggested by SirG. We then need to identify the remaining scum, but we'll have one or two more nights of results to work with.

Are role flips guaranteed to be 100% truthful with what is said? Will they include any hidden aspects of their ability (e.g. unknown to the player sanity)?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby JackHK » Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:14 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:Query: @JackHK, does the wording specifically say Mafia, or does it say non-town, anti-town, or scum?


I don't know if I'm allowed to quote PM's dirently, but I can saay that exactly 1 person in the set is "mafia-aligned".

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:On the way home. Might do analysis tonight, depending on how I feel once back, but here are a couple of quick thoughts:

Something generalz said made me think he is town. As a result, I reckon at least one of SirG or Jack are scum. How dies this sound as a strategy: lynch SirG today. If he flips town, we lynch dimochka D3, and we have a very limited set of players for a second scum. If he's scum, dimochka is probably town. Tonight, somebody targets moody, either without saying they will, or who hasn't claimed yet. If moody can't confirm what he was targeted with, we lynch him at some point (D3 or D4 depending on whether we are lynching dimochka or not). Note that him being an absorber doesn't guarantee him as town, but I think it's more likely a town role. As a backup to this plan, moody and dimochka can coordinate to give gifts to different people as suggested by SirG. We then need to identify the remaining scum, but we'll have one or two more nights of results to work with.

Are role flips guaranteed to be 100% truthful with what is said? Will they include any hidden aspects of their ability (e.g. unknown to the player sanity)?


Needless to say, I quite like this strategy. I'm not as sure as you that generalz is telling the truth, but thinking about it I'd say I'm about 60% there. having a 60 % of mafia for SirG is more than I've got on anyone else, honestly.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:20 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Are role flips guaranteed to be 100% truthful with what is said? Will they include any hidden aspects of their ability (e.g. unknown to the player sanity)?

Role reveals will contain exactly the first line of the dead player's role-pm. No hidden aspects (if they exist) will be revealed.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby generalz » Wed Aug 17, 2016 9:21 pm UTC

@Suzaku: The exact wording is indeed "Mafia".
(I will try to make longer posts later, for the moment it is not very convenient with the phone...)

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Madge » Thu Aug 18, 2016 12:57 am UTC

I agree with the idea that we should use the lynch today to test one of the people around the quagmire of claims/etc, because the thought that two scum could be working together to fuck with us is scary, and could result in the win happening suddenly and without warning which is very bad for me as I haven't guessed yet.

I suspect Dim is likely scum FWIW.

I think JackHK is a great lynch candidate because of the information he provides. His power is already used so we're not denied anything and he will FMPOV confirm SirG as scum if he flips town, plus making us know the info we have from him is useful.

Vote: JackHK
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:08 am UTC

I took a quick look back over generalz and Jack, and nothing stood out to make me think of one as scummier than the other. So, since Jack's flip is potentially more useful for us,

Vote: JackHK

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Carlington » Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:52 am UTC

I need a chance to reread which I likely won't have tonight (or I might, but late and I'll be a bit tired), but I want to register the fact that I don't know if I like how easily the JackHK wagon is building. I see the argument that we gain the most from lynching him, but for some reason the build up to this lynch feels too opportunistic and something I can't put into words is pinging me ridiculously hard.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby JackHK » Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:48 am UTC

Madge wrote:I think JackHK is a great lynch candidate because of the information he provides. His power is already used so we're not denied anything and he will FMPOV confirm SirG as scum if he flips town, plus making us know the info we have from him is useful.


I would like to remind people that I have another power, which I have not used yet. However, even so, I can see people's logic somewhat, so I won't complain too much if people stick with the "lynch me" plan.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Suzaku » Thu Aug 18, 2016 12:23 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Quick point to correct Suzaku on one thing:
Suzaku wrote:One of Carlinton and dim is scum.
Why? Either town!dim sent something to scum!Carlington and C is lying about not receiving it, or town!Carlington is telling the truth about not receiving anything from lying scum!dim.
You missed the case that town!dim could have tried to send something to town!Carlington but was roleblocked or redirected.

More later hopefully.
I was explicitly excluding redirection and other chicanery, as we have no reasonable way of assessing how probable it is, and mainly to simplify my writing. I do agree that it must be considered before any final conclusions can be drawn.

SirGabriel wrote:
Suzaku wrote:SirGabriel:
Claimed: Lie Detector
Claimed Result: "dimochka is lying about not being scum"
Query: @SirG, Why did you check that statement (if this information wouldn't weaken your ability to find liars on later nights)?
Conclusion: dim is not not scum, ergo is scum.

I believed dim was scum. If I checked his "I am town" statement and found it to be false and claimed as much, he could just counterclaim that he was some kind of harmless independent. I felt that finding out whether he was scum was more useful than finding out whether he was town.

Also, since I think I forgot to mention this before: I can't use my ability on consecutive nights.
That does make sense. Thank you.

moody7277 wrote:Okay, deductions:
...
If generalz is telling the truth, at least one of {SirG, JackHK, Madge} is scum.
--Madge is a declared independent with enough detail backing her up to be true.
--SirG is cleared by point 1 above.
--Therefore, JackHK is scum, hence my vote.
Wait, what? SirG is in no way cleared by point one. I agree that it is more likely, based purely on what's been claimed, that dim is scum and SirG is town, but it is very very far from certain. Unless you know SirG's alignment 'cause you're scum?

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm finding the whole dim, SirG, moody thing a little too coincidental.

That said, either SirG or JackHK is probably the best lynch for today, simply in terms of how much it would untangle out of the claims. I need to think through the possibilities to see which I feel would be the better choice overall.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby adnapemit » Thu Aug 18, 2016 12:29 pm UTC

Firstly, I'm still convinced dim is scum and I think it's likely that dim was arrested by a scum buddy who wanted to prevent us having a successful lynch.
SirGabriel wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Can only start using the power N2 and on. Wasn't planning on using it, but do you want a joke vig? Needle full of saline with a retractable tip?

Actually, that might not be a bad idea. You can simply declare today what you're going to send to whom, and if that person receives what you claim to send them, then we know you're telling the truth. dimochka simply needs to agree not to send the same item you're claiming to send (since doing so could mess up the results if there's a redirector).

I also think moody should test it out. A redirector shouldn't be able to change the item that was sent(they would have to know of the ability to do this). So there is definitely(a small) possibility that dimochka's role isn't what it seems. Maybe whatever he picks and whoever he picks it to be sent too, something different always gets sent to someone else.
However if moody is an absorber then he could be lying about the item received to frame dim. This also makes a redirector more possible again.
I'm pretty sure there has to be one scum among dim, SirG and moody.
Simple answer dim is scum, moody and SirG are town.

Other options:
moody and dim are not scum, SirG is scum:This would be the case if dims role wasn't what it appeared to be and SirG was lying about his ability.
moody and SirG is scum: This would be the case if they were targeting dim but we can't vote for him so he can't flip town/independent/other until later.
moody and dim are scum, SirG is town: SirG got a correct result from lie detector and moody is busing dim because we can't vote for him.

And the least likely:
All three are not scum: SirG results aren't sane, dimochka's role doesn't work as described and moody is telling the truth.

JackHK wrote:I would like to remind people that I have another power, which I have not used yet. However, even so, I can see people's logic somewhat, so I won't complain too much if people stick with the "lynch me" plan.

I don't like the lynch you plan. I still think it's too risky and with 2 others on generalz's list voting you without thinking you are scummy, I think it's more likely you aren't scum.
This makes it more likely SirG is scum, which also seems unlikely to me since I'm pretty convinced dim is scum. But then that leaves Madge who has a reasonable claim for independent...
Someone has to be scum...
Most likely to least likely:
Madge: False claim independent
SirG: If he believes Madge is independent then Jack or generalz has to be scum and voted as such or voting because he is scum.
generalz: Fake list to throw attention elsewhere
JackHK: Made fake result but was caught by generalz's list as possible scum.

I think it is also possible that SirG and Madge are both scum because of how easily they voted Jack.

I don't think we should be lynching anyone to confirm their results but I don't believe lynching JackHK actually gains us as much info as others seem to think. I'd prefer to lynch generalz because I thought they were a bit scummy day one BUT not if it's just so we can confirm if they are results are correct. I think we are more likely to get a mislynch than not. I want to be lynching scum. I don't want any more mislynches. I don't know why we have no night kills but I doubt it will happen again. Maybe they got blocked, maybe they are slow acting deaths, maybe they can only kill on even nights (maybe they did as Suzaku suggested and forgot to send actions in) but I expect there will be more deaths tonight and I'd rather not lose any more town players from lynching.
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