Secret Santa 2016 - D5 - Happy New Year!

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:51 am UTC

I targeted kalira last night, but unless there's some hidden aspect to my role, I did not kill her. I am also fairly confident that I wasn't redirected, because I believe my action would have had public confirmation (will ask the mods), and there's no sign of it.

I received a gift of sorts last night, but don't wish to discuss further details at this point. If I suddenly keel over and die, you should probably lynch the gift giver.

I wouldn't put it as impossible that mafia controlled both kills last night. Random ideas that would work include somebody who reflects actions onto the user, or simply one Mafia was redirected to the other, plus mafia controlled an extra kill (possibly kalira's).

I'll post my thoughts on last night's final votals when I get a chance.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:03 am UTC

That's why you don't lurk as scum.

If kalira used their power on someone, would they be aware that they have been redirected?

Same question, but with SirGabriels power?


If those two powers went off, it could mean some of the investigative results might be a bit iffy.

FOS emlightened, as your vote may have convinced people to vote away from scum, and your reasons for voting me suck.

Feeling a bit better about matt, as I doubt they would have passed up the chance to save their scum buddy.

I'm thinking it might be an SK kill. Unless someone wants to claim vig?

Final thoughts - Kudos on the flavour. But the spelling of all those Aussie slang terms makes me cringe! I've only heard them spoken, they look so bad written out!
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Madge » Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:13 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:If kalira used their power on someone, would they be aware that they have been redirected?

Same question, but with SirGabriels power?



This is a complicated question to succinctly, so here's a detailed response:

People are not informed they are redirected, but investigative results will not be made iffy like you are worried about.

For example, say Shazza is a cop who targeted scum!Kylie, but was redirected to town!Gazza by a redirector.

Shazza will get the result "Gazza is town", and probably PM me and say "hey I targeted Kylie" to which she will get the reply "Yeah, I know. Your result is on Gazza". Then Shazza will ask me "Oh so I was redirected?" and I will of course say "no comment".

Then let's say Kylie's a roleblocker and targets Gazza, but the redirector makes her new target Shazza. Shazza is roleblocked, but Kylie has no way of knowing that (i.e. as far as Kylie can tell, her roleblock on Gazza was successful).

Does that make sense?


Gopher of Pern wrote:Final thoughts - Kudos on the flavour. But the spelling of all those Aussie slang terms makes me cringe! I've only heard them spoken, they look so bad written out!


I did some soul-searching to figure out how the heck you're meant to spell "champers". I'm still not satisfied.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:15 am UTC

Just heard back from Madge, which shows my assumption to be false. I could have been redirected last night and consequently somebody else might have been hit by my action. The player I eventually targeted will know though (if it wasn't kalira).
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:11 am UTC

Some analysis:

- assume RoadieRich informs his team that he'll be unable to really participate in the game, so his team decides to bus him D1 to gain townie-points (with or without RR's permission). This means that SDK is scum and probably at least one of moody/matt. SDK tunnels on RR which fits the theory perfectly, however it takes moody almost 2 days to join the party, with matt closing out the deal to earn super-townie points right before deadline. This latter doesn't feel right, plus I don't think SDk would have explained his vote so thoroughly if he were RR's scumpartner. I was at first suspicious of that post because it looked to me like scum!SDK trying to justify lynching town!RR but I just don't see it coming from a scum-buddy.
If RR did not say anything like that to his team then it doesn't make sense for scum!SDK to tunnel him right from the beginning when other easy targets were also available.
Conclusion: SDK is very likely not part of the Mafia team.

- bessie tunneled hard on kalira, assuming no bastard roles like Usurper it is unlikely that she's scum as kalira was in no real danger of getting lynched and bessie had probably no way of knowing that kalira would die tonight.
Conclusion: bessie is very likely not part of the Mafia team.

- assume moody is scum. In his early analysis post he calls RR slightly scummy, kalira slightly townie. Nothing groundbreaking there. He reacts to SDK and states that out of {bessie, jimbob, RR} he would prefer to see RR lynched. Really only makes sense if at least one other player in that list is scum as well (which would have to be jimbob). Re-reads kalira, finds nothing suspicious, immediately votes RR at a time where he could have voted someone else to tie up the votals with the possible justification of e.g. 'I will let the mods handle the lurkers.'
Conclusion: if moody is scum then jimbob is the fourth member of the team and I at least made one good read D1. However it is more likely that moody is not part of the Mafia team either.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 15, 2016 12:10 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:That's why you don't lurk as scum.
Feels out of place, especially given the other lurkers (not to mention the lurkers in other games) not all of whom are/were scum.
Gopher of Pern wrote:If those two powers went off, it could mean some of the investigative results might be a bit iffy.
Trying to pre-emptively invalidate investigation results.
Gopher of Pern wrote:FOS emlightened, ..., and your reasons for voting me suck.
OMGUS at its fullest.
Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm thinking it might be an SK kill. Unless someone wants to claim vig?
Role-fishing.

GoP isn't doing much to inspire confidence in him.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Thu Dec 15, 2016 1:27 pm UTC

Quick skim of Day 2 posts makes me think GoP and/or Carlington are mafia. Got some solid town reads out of Day 1 results. This game is going well.

bessie, kalira flipped scum. What was your theory about emlightened now?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby adnapemit » Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:02 pm UTC

Not feeling sick now and stuff got in the way of getting online before the deadline, time to do some proper (and slightly delayed) player analysis:
bessie:
Considered FoSing emlightened and kalira over comments of flavour. 8-3-1-1-1 setup spec.
There was a lot of focus on kalira who did turn out to be scum but I'm not sure if this is good scum hunting or a plan to get kalira lynched and flip scum. I didn't see anything odd in what kalira posted but maybe I was just looking at it too differently or maybe bessie knew something I didn't. Does make a good point about Sabrar and a convenient memory lapse. Either scum has a plan to viciously attack each other to prove their townness or she is town. If I look at other parts of her posts that don't involve kalira or emlightened I would say she is probably town..so I will place her slightly townie.

Carlington:Suspects SDK for scum picks and no reasoning but puts him as indie. First analysis post mostly players he considered town and mention of the lurkers. Confronts bessie about scum accusation on him but considers her town still. Gets the same rushed feeling from SDK I do. Votes SDK . Probably town.

Djehutynakht: Small comment on night 1 results. Content still pending.

emlightened: Only provided analysis at the end of day 1. Kalira as most scummy. Could just be trying to distance herself from bessie associating her with kalira or like others actually found kalira scummy.
Last 2 on her scum list flipped scum and I think if emlightened is scum then there is a good chance the Gopher of Pern may be a 4th member. I don't see anything scummy, neutral-slightly townie.

Gopher of Pern: Votes emlightened which I felt lacked a proper reason. Comment about power roles in scum hands being more powerful which is sort of odd. Initially scum does know more but depending on the role power or usefulness of abilities tend to shift a lot more to town especially with investigative roles and protective roles. Player analysis is a bit sparse. Even if emlightened isn't scum I'd be leaning scum on him.

jimbobmacdoodle:Posts some questions for discussion. Defends emlightened for post about flavour.
Votes emlightened. Nothing really stands out with his posts as being scummy. His posts seem logical as usual an I don't really disagree with most of his opinions. Probobly town.

matt96: Vote RoadieRich as last minute. His reads seem to be OK...but might be a little light. First post didn't contain much useful content and his second post was planning how to get information from mod questions. I'd put him less scummy than my other scum reads but more than neutral

moody7277:
Placed kalira slightly townie, jimbob slightly scummy, and an IGMEoY on Sabrar in his snap judgments post. Votes RoadieRich. I found all of his posts a bit odd. Could be scum defending another member(kalira) or just a very different opinion of everyone. I kind of feel maybe he is an independent.

(This took longer than expected Sabrar an SDK tomorrow, so I can have a proper read of their post)
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:53 pm UTC

--bessie looks really townie for her read of kalira. tip of the hat

--matt deciding against vote shenanigans is always a positive to me, so I'm putting him at slightly townie right now.

--I received an interesting present last night, which a little birdie tells me may or may not have been meant for me. I heard that one of {SirG, adnapemit, emlightened} is scum. Given that SirG had flipped town, and the suspicion on emlightened, I think we have a clear point.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby bessie » Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:12 pm UTC

Short post before work. I didn’t expect D2 to start this early.

Carlington wrote:Alright, I guess I've learned that policies like Lynch All Lurkers exist for a reason - they work!
So do you think we should lynch Djehutynakht next?

Carlington wrote:What are everyone's thoughts about where the other scum vote/s would have ended up? Looking at the final vote distribution, I think it's by no means a given that the remaining scum were on RR's wagon with so many other places to hide. I think it's more likely that scum would be on one of the single-vote wagons. I'm also noting that the only player with no vote down not otherwise accounted for was adnapemit. (DJ is covered enough by RL for the moment, imo)

So I'm eyeballing adnapemit, jimbob, bessie, and GoP on the basis of votes, and potentially also emlightened for her last minute vote on GoP, as I could buy that being a late attempt to lure another vote and defensively tie the votals.
You were on a single vote wagon.

FoS Carlington

Gopher of Pern wrote:Feeling a bit better about matt, as I doubt they would have passed up the chance to save their scum buddy.
It would have been difficult for matt to save RoadieRich. If matt voted for Gopher of Pern it would have been tied, so someone would need to unvote RoadieRich or another player would need to vote for Gopher.
Madge wrote:4. If the votals are tied, then the person who hit the tied number of votes first will be lynched, unless all players are voting solely for the tied players, in which case there will be no lynch.


SDK wrote:bessie, kalira flipped scum. What was your theory about emlightened now?
Let me see if I can remember. That kalira and emlightened are a team working together? I did a summary here. Their content felt to me like they were feeding each other things to talk about that weren’t necessarily suspicious but that weren’t really scum hunting, like setup speculation. There was also a lot of focus on the possibility of a serial killer (distraction?). After I started “tunneling” on this, emlightened distanced herself from kalira. I will need to read through the remainder of the D1 posts (everything that happened after I voted) to see if I still strongly believe that they were a team.

More tonight, and I will respond to any questions (if there are any) that were directed to me toward the end of D1.

ninja'd by moody.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Dec 15, 2016 6:01 pm UTC

Interesting result by moody.

@moody - is it exactly one, or could there be more than one in the group?

I need to recollect my thoughts following the flips, but I don't remember seeing anything that would obviously change my opinions from yesterday, which would make emlightened the obvious lynch candidate in my opinion, as at least one of {moody, adnapemit and emlightened} is scum. That's ignoring millers and other false result shenanigans of course.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Thu Dec 15, 2016 6:14 pm UTC

Miller is an ability, nothing to do with alignment, so unless one of us put a miller in the game (doubtful?) then we should be able to trust results.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 6:15 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@moody - is it exactly one, or could there be more than one in the group?


Rechecking, and it's at least one.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:27 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:That's why you don't lurk as scum.
Feels out of place, especially given the other lurkers (not to mention the lurkers in other games) not all of whom are/were scum.
Gopher of Pern wrote:If those two powers went off, it could mean some of the investigative results might be a bit iffy.
Trying to pre-emptively invalidate investigation results.
Gopher of Pern wrote:FOS emlightened, ..., and your reasons for voting me suck.
OMGUS at its fullest.
Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm thinking it might be an SK kill. Unless someone wants to claim vig?
Role-fishing.

GoP isn't doing much to inspire confidence in him.


My point is that lurkers get lynched. No one should lurk, but scum should be especially wary about it.
With the clarification from the mod, the investigative reports won't be iffy, only roleblocking and stuff would be. So I don't understand your point?
Just because it is an OMGUS doesn't mean I'm not right.
That last point - if it was a vig, that decreases the chance of an SK, and therefore we have a good chance of their being only 2 scum left. Some claiming might be advantageous.

You are completely off base there.

If moody is telling the truth, emlightened is looking good for a lynch.

Bessie, I didn't notice that rule. That would have made things harder for scum to move the bandwagon, but not impossible. Would have been quite obvious though, especially when I flipped town, so it would have given them a temporary victory.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:45 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:My point is that lurkers get lynched. No one should lurk, but scum should be especially wary about it.
Your statement came across as 'That's why I do not lurk as scum.' Also I don't understand your point about why scum should be especially wary not to lurk. For Town it is equally important not to get mislynched just because of lurking.
Gopher of Pern wrote:With the clarification from the mod, the investigative reports won't be iffy, only roleblocking and stuff would be. So I don't understand your point?
You made your statement about not trusting investigative results before the mod reply. That is my point.
Gopher of Pern wrote:Just because it is an OMGUS doesn't mean I'm not right.
Perhaps if you would care to refute her points with reasons instead of just saying that you're right, I would take you more seriously.
Gopher of Pern wrote:That last point - if it was a vig, that decreases the chance of an SK, and therefore we have a good chance of their being only 2 scum left. Some claiming might be advantageous.
Or we could a have doc, a bulletproof player or another roleblocker, or the kills could have coincided. Knowing there's a vig isn't enough advantage to immediately lose him/her to scum.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:19 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:My point is that lurkers get lynched. No one should lurk, but scum should be especially wary about it.
Your statement came across as 'That's why I do not lurk as scum.' Also I don't understand your point about why scum should be especially wary not to lurk. For Town it is equally important not to get mislynched just because of lurking.
Gopher of Pern wrote:With the clarification from the mod, the investigative reports won't be iffy, only roleblocking and stuff would be. So I don't understand your point?
You made your statement about not trusting investigative results before the mod reply. That is my point.
Gopher of Pern wrote:Just because it is an OMGUS doesn't mean I'm not right.
Perhaps if you would care to refute her points with reasons instead of just saying that you're right, I would take you more seriously.
Gopher of Pern wrote:That last point - if it was a vig, that decreases the chance of an SK, and therefore we have a good chance of their being only 2 scum left. Some claiming might be advantageous.
Or we could a have doc, a bulletproof player or another roleblocker, or the kills could have coincided. Knowing there's a vig isn't enough advantage to immediately lose him/her to scum.


It was a meta-comment, on how to play. Did not relate directly to this game.

Hence why I asked about it, to see if investigative results could be trusted. Are you not, you know, reading everything?

You want me to refute them? Fine. I was not as lurky as quite a few people, in fact, at that stage, I would hardly call me lurky at all. No helpful content? I provided some opinions, and stances on where I was. I never made an excuse to lurk. I thought that was self evident, but apparently, I'm the only one who reads properly.

That's why I said it decreases the chance, not removes it. Hell, a possible vig could lie and say they were one-shot, or indeed they could be one shot. There are numerous possibilities! But you know what? Simplest possibility is usually best.

You still haven't mentioned why any of the things I've said are scummy. Feels like you're projecting there.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:43 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Hence why I asked about it, to see if investigative results could be trusted. Are you not, you know, reading everything?
I've taken special care not to insult you in my post, I would appreciate if you could show me the same courtesy. You could have just asked your questions without mentioning your reasons, the fact that you included a comment especially of how untrustwothy investigative results could become is suspicious.
Gopher of Pern wrote:You want me to refute them? Fine. I was not as lurky as quite a few people, in fact, at that stage, I would hardly call me lurky at all. No helpful content? I provided some opinions, and stances on where I was. I never made an excuse to lurk. I thought that was self evident, but apparently, I'm the only one who reads properly.
You did not post for 3 days (or 2 if you count weekends for half) in a game where 1 post/day is preferred according to the rules. I would call that lurking and it doesn't matter that others have done the same. We could argue how helpful your stances were, looking at e.g. 'Bessie has quite a bit, although some of their questions seem a bit funny to me.' I have no idea what you think of her, what you find funny and why. The bit about the excuses you would have to ask emlightened though I can see a couple of statements that could have been interpreted that way.
Gopher of Pern wrote:That's why I said it decreases the chance, not removes it.
Yes, but is the knowledge of a decreased chance of an SK enough to justify the loss of a vig? I don't think so and you haven't addressed that point in your reply. Also just to reiterate, townies should never lie.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby emlightened » Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:45 pm UTC

I wonder if moody and jimbob had the same gift/present giver(s), or if the role is very versatile. Given that moody received information and jimbob probably an item, I'm inclined to the former.

I'm not sure if we should trust it, although it's likely to be from a town source (unless there are an excess of indies), I guess there's a possibility it's been tampered with. I think it's probably a good idea to kill us (both), but I'm not sure.


Anyway, if we want to just go ahead and trust moody's info, I suggest you vote for adnapemit instead of me, regardless of who you think is scum. My role specifies that under certain conditions out of my control (which you as a group can force), I die. Unless any of you think it's a bad idea for me to say under what conditions (e.g. we find adnapemit scummier, and don't want to risk non-town killing me), then I'm happy to reveal them.


I'm mainly agreeing with Sabrar in regards to Gopher, but I'm willing to give some lenience, as if Gopher's come from somewhere else then their playstyle may be the usual there. Not enough lenience for me to not have them as one of my three scummiest players (probably with matt and adnapemit), though.

I don't want to trust adnapemit's post to not be diffrent given it was after the lynch, but nothing looks like it might have been changed.

Don't think I really have much more to say right now.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:32 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Hence why I asked about it, to see if investigative results could be trusted. Are you not, you know, reading everything?
I've taken special care not to insult you in my post, I would appreciate if you could show me the same courtesy. You could have just asked your questions without mentioning your reasons, the fact that you included a comment especially of how untrustwothy investigative results could become is suspicious.
Gopher of Pern wrote:You want me to refute them? Fine. I was not as lurky as quite a few people, in fact, at that stage, I would hardly call me lurky at all. No helpful content? I provided some opinions, and stances on where I was. I never made an excuse to lurk. I thought that was self evident, but apparently, I'm the only one who reads properly.
You did not post for 3 days (or 2 if you count weekends for half) in a game where 1 post/day is preferred according to the rules. I would call that lurking and it doesn't matter that others have done the same. We could argue how helpful your stances were, looking at e.g. 'Bessie has quite a bit, although some of their questions seem a bit funny to me.' I have no idea what you think of her, what you find funny and why. The bit about the excuses you would have to ask emlightened though I can see a couple of statements that could have been interpreted that way.
Gopher of Pern wrote:That's why I said it decreases the chance, not removes it.
Yes, but is the knowledge of a decreased chance of an SK enough to justify the loss of a vig? I don't think so and you haven't addressed that point in your reply. Also just to reiterate, townies should never lie.


I'm sorry. I get a bit abrasive when people misconstrue me, especially when I'm right. I still do not see how mentioning that results might have been tampered with is suspicious. You have provided no reasons for it.

Lurking is relative. Yes I lurked a bit in the beginning, I'm not saying I didn't, but it seems like everything I've done since then has been ignored. Yes, some of my stances are a bit non-committal, but that's because it was day 1. There is very little to go on. I did post who I thought was scummy.

I'm not sure if it's worth it, but I thought it worth discussing. If there is no SK, and there are two scum left, it might be worth it. It was a discussion point, not a 'you must reveal now!' And your bit about townies never lying is naive. Of course town can lie. Do you think a cop in an otherwise normal game should not lie about being a regular town?

You are letting your day 1 thoughts intrude on day 2 too much. Much has changed since then. How about you address more than just me?

emlightened, that seems very convenient on your end. However, I do not think you need to reveal just yet.

And FWIW, I have really only played on these forums, although it has been awhile.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby adnapemit » Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:06 am UTC

Sabrar:
Most notable comment early game
Sabrar wrote:@SDK: we haven't been scum-buddies before. I'm inclined to think that we're on the same team.
That was a big statement so early on and had me worried that they were a scum team joking around. Number of mafia dead plus a high probability that at least one of {moody, me and emlightened} being scum means that this comment means they probably aren't a scum team(five scum would be really high number....). I don't see anything wrong with his reads. He does a bit of comparing of behaviour to past games for some of the more difficult players to read.
Voted Gopher of Pern. Doesn't like 'fishing for reaction' excuse for posts. Recently jumped on GoP posts with lots of comment. D1 I would have said slightly townie but there are less mafia now so I am more comfortable putting him at probably town.

SDK: Starts with a current scum pick of RoadieRich, jimbobmacdoodle and moody then switched to asking what people think of Roadie, jimbob and bessie. Started a bit late so his posts and prompts for questions feel rushed to squeeze as much as possible into a short amount of time. His questions are good...his questions are also good when he is scum though. But same as with Sabrar the deaths of mafia move him more towards town. He would have been neutral and is also now probably town.


TOWN
adnapemit
Sabrar
SDK
Carlington
jimbobmacdoodle
bessie
Djehutynakht ----Neutral line
moody7277
matt96
Gopher of Pern
emlightened
SCUM

SDK wrote:-- adnapemit, why did you choose not to respond to my call for votes? What did you think of me pointing fingers without basis? Who is scum?

SDK wrote:Time Panda, you didn't have a vote on yesterDay. Why is that?

(sorry for delayed response)When I made my last post of D1 I wasn't feeling well and hadn't properly read the thread since my post before. I wasn't comfortable making a decision based mostly on memory and my first interpretation of players post. I like to read every post separately and in context, usually I do this for my player analysis type posts. Since I had left it too late and then couldn't do player analysis before the deadline I didn't feel just voting anyone would be right. If pushed really hard for who I would have voted for I would probably have said Gopher of Pern because I did not realise RoadieRich only had one post and that it was a post that I had found a bit pingy.
For what I thought of your pointing of fingers without basis, I saw it as trying to get a reaction and an attempt to drag decisions and reactions out of other players...maybe not an effective method though as you said yourself you are being ignored.

moody7277 wrote:I received an interesting present last night, which a little birdie tells me may or may not have been meant for me. I heard that one of {SirG, adnapemit, emlightened} is scum. Given that SirG had flipped town, and the suspicion on emlightened, I think we have a clear point.

If this is accurate then this confirms to me that emlightened is scum.
FMPOV there are three possibilities emlightened is scum, moody is scum or the result is wrong.
Most likely of these three I think is emlightened is scum.
emlightened wrote:I'm not sure if we should trust it, although it's likely to be from a town source (unless there are an excess of indies), I guess there's a possibility it's been tampered with. I think it's probably a good idea to kill us (both), but I'm not sure.
It's not a bad idea..but not the perfect. If it is an inaccurate result it could result in up to two mis-lynches(or three if everyone decides to lynch moody as well). If we had more information to compare to it would be better. We might get another result tomorrow of the same type to compare to so I don't expect it to lead to 3 mislynches.
Anyway, if we want to just go ahead and trust moody's info, I suggest you vote for adnapemit instead of me, regardless of who you think is scum.

This sounds like "I can't say don't kill me because town can't say that, so kill the other one first"
My role specifies that under certain conditions out of my control(which you as a group can force), I die.
Like you get lynched because because people vote for you :P
Unless any of you think it's a bad idea for me to say under what conditions (e.g. we find adnapemit scummier, and don't want to risk non-town killing me), then I'm happy to reveal them.
As I don't know what the conditions are I can't really judge if you should reveal them but why would non-town kill you if town has decided to kill you. Mafia could kill you anyway. A SK could kill you anyway. I suppose an independent without a kill could possibly kill you(I'm assuming it's the conditions require you being targeted in some way) but I'm not sure I see any reason they would.
I don't want to trust adnapemit's post to not be diffrent given it was after the lynch, but nothing looks like it might have been changed.

Mostly the same, although obviously the results from players deaths did impact it...
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby bessie » Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:34 am UTC

As promised, I’m trying to answer some questions that were directed at me but I didn’t have the opportunity to answer on D1.
SirGabriel wrote:
bessie wrote:jimbobmacdoodle – I think he’s independent.

Why?

At the time I made that post, I felt that jimbob was not taking stands on anyone but was fishing for opinions with his reads. All his reads follow the pattern of “here’s what I think, but I could be wrong, what does everyone else think?” His flip flopping on emlightened makes me think that he is looking for a wagon without being obvious about it, but not necessarily a town wagon, just a wagon. Rereading his posts now. Note his list in this post were all wagon candidates with the exception of kalira, who was being tunneled by me.

Some things that stand out to me:

Jimbob’s first comment in the game that was about another player and not role/setup spec:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm not buying the suspicion by bessie and roadie on emlightened because she tried to look at the flavour in detail, especially since she asked a question to find out if there was any point.
In his next post, he responded to me questioning him on that comment. Then he threw the question on emlightened out to everyone (fishing ?).

jimbob’s next post is some reads mostly on me (bessie tunneling on kalira/emlightened scum team; disagrees with kalira read). I've commented on this post before:
bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I also find it odd that she seems to be leaving posts for later, which I'm interpreting as a thing to refer back to as finding scummy - it all adds to the feeling of tunnelling I'm getting, seeing that I don't see anything untoward in the player interactions highlighted. My gut says that this isn't the sort of tunnelling where a town player gets laser focused on a small point and blows it out of all proportion, but more the bright red flashing arrow pointing at "look at this person, aren't they scummy" style, i.e. the getting Town to look at specific players to lynch who are not scum buddies, but I could easily be wrong.
I need to think about this more. I’m wondering why you are jumping on me for tunneling, and why now, only after SDK put me on his scum list. Maybe because this could turn in to an easy wagon for you to join?

Then there was a vote on emlightened (who he didn’t really find all that scummy) with a willingness to switch to RoadieRich.

I just have a feeling that jimbob is independent. Maybe your win condition is not necessarily anti-town (or maybe you just don’t see it as anti-town). But that doesn’t make you pro-town, and it definitely doesn’t make you town. I really don’t understand why jimbob thinks he wasn’t scum in Draculafia. I mean, I really don’t. I checked and Djehutynakht never posted the role PMs so maybe I’m missing something, but if you can only win by becoming mafia and winning with mafia, you’re scum. You were never pro-town in that game, and I think it’s bizarre that you pointed out that you were trying to kill scum at the beginning so you considered yourself indie-aligned. Using this argument, is a serial killer town-aligned if in the beginning of the game they kill mafia?

Another odd thing now that I’m rereading, is that jimbob wasn’t even asked a question about his scum history. This was a response to the page-one-banter.
1. Sabrar joke voted jimbobmacdoodle for not being scum for ages.
2. bessie pointed out jimbob was scum in Trial of the Pariahs.
3. Sabrar pointed out jimbob didn’t start as scum in that game.
4. adnapemit made a joke about jimbob being half-scum, so he could be again.
5. moody points out Gambler’s fallacy.
6. jimbob makes this post:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:For complete clarity, my last (and only) game as true scum was in Misnomer's Smalltown 2. I was also sort-of scum in Draculafia (sort-of in the sense that I was actually trying to kill scum effectively at the start of the game, so could be considered to be indie-aligned), and as noted in Trial of the Pariahs, where I was unknowingly a Silversmith, who turned scum right at the last moment before the game would have ended in my town-aligned victory (FTR, that game has made me permanently less likely to help indies, when a Town victory can be achieved immediately, instead of postponing). Of course, as moody mentioned, that makes me no more likely to be scum this game than anybody else.

FWIW, I am Town once again, although I feel that my ability would somewhat fit in scum's hands better than town's, but I should still have some use for it. (Of course, scum would say that they are town, so I don't really expect anybody to put any weight behind the claim).

bessie's interpretation?
1. I was only scum once.
2. I was sort of town aligned mafia in Draculafia, so I was really an indie.
3. By the way, I’m not inclined to help indies, go town!
4. I’m not scum, I’m town!
5. By the way, my power is more useful to scum so don’t expect me to be very useful, sorry fellow townies!

I’ve been trying to organize this post for well over an hour, so I’ll need to answer any other questions directed at me tomorrow.

Ninja'd by adnapemit but I'm going to sleep.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 16, 2016 12:08 pm UTC

Quick post in response to bessie: I categorically deny that I am independent. Feel free to lynch me if I ever claim otherwise. My comment re. not true scum in Draculafia is because I didn't fit into a traditional scum faction (at least at game start). You are of course right that I was scum in the broader sense of simply anti-town. But that's all really a bit of a terminology thing, and isn't really relevant.

Unfortunately, my content is likely to be lighter than I'd hoped leading up to Christmas, as I am going to be driving into work most days, when I do most of my posting, and out most evenings, when I do the rest. I hopefully will have some time this weekend, but I can't promise anything.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:03 pm UTC

Extremely busy day at work, some quick comments.
emlightened wrote:I'm not sure if we should trust it, although it's likely to be from a town source (unless there are an excess of indies), I guess there's a possibility it's been tampered with. I think it's probably a good idea to kill us (both), but I'm not sure.
Very much don't like this reaction, distrusts investigative results, unlikely that it could be tempered with as that would require 2 separately submitted roles that somehow interact (and not just like Cop/Godfather e.g.)

emlightened wrote:Unless any of you think it's a bad idea for me to say under what conditions (e.g. we find adnapemit scummier, and don't want to risk non-town killing me), then I'm happy to reveal them.
I think you should reveal, as otherwise this just reeks of desperate attempt of scum trying to wiggle out of it.

Caveat: given that bessie was correct about kalira I'm giving more weight to her arguments about emlightened and that might influence my judgement.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I still do not see how mentioning that results might have been tampered with is suspicious.
Town's main weapons against scum are investigation results, Cop/Tracker/etc. Doubting them without a good reason deprives us of a huge advantage. Even alluding to it is suspicious because it plants the seed of doubt.
Gopher of Pern wrote:Of course town can lie. Do you think a cop in an otherwise normal game should not lie about being a regular town?
Please show me an example where (in a closed setup) a Cop outright denied being a Cop at first, claimed Cop later and was not lynched. Normally we do not go around in the circle, asking everyone if they're our Cop/Doc/whatever, so there is no reason for Cop to lie before he claims. And if we're in an open setup (like Alternating 9P on this forum) then we especially do not discuss the identity of our power roles.

@matt96: please join the conversation.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:05 pm UTC

This is not exactly a reads list. It's just where my preferences on targets are right now

not to lynch:
bessie- being right about kalira helped a lot
matt96- decision he made late D1 puts him here
adnapemit- iff emlightened flips scum, may change if we're at endgame and desperate
Sabrar

don't know:
SDK- still not D3
DJ- nothing from him, but we have several other people more suspicious, and he's talked about RL issues
Carlington- leaning town read on him

lynchable:
emlightened- has the investigation result to add to previous scummy read
GoP-
jimbob- if scum started with 4 instead of 3, and we had a SK we may get to him D4.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:13 pm UTC

Finally reading through Day 2 in detail. Roadie was a good one to get early. We got lucky - that vote-loss power could have easily won scum the game later. Whoa, kalira was strong too. Caught the redirect in my skims earlier, but killing someone otherwise is pretty mean!


Sabrar wrote:Also just to reiterate, townies should never lie.

I disagree, but you have to know what you're doing and lie for the right reasons. It's very rare that it's a good idea, but it can be. I've done it myself multiple times, and can only recall one time that I regretted it. But yeah, generally this is not something you want to do.


Gopher of Pern wrote:emlightened, that seems very convenient on your end. However, I do not think you need to reveal just yet.

Why don't you think she should reveal? You'd previously FOS'd her, and Day 2 stated that "emlightened is looking good for a lynch". I should think that you would want her to claim.



I think we should lynch emlightened.

em, if you want to claim your death thing, that would be good. Happy to just do this the old fashioned way if you prefer.

Vote emlightened.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:18 pm UTC

Madge, just checked the Countdown, and it says 3 days, 14 hours, 42 minutes from the time of this post. Were you going to change that to 2 days? Either way it's over the weekend for me, so I don't much care.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby bessie » Fri Dec 16, 2016 5:44 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Quick post in response to bessie: I categorically deny that I am independent. Feel free to lynch me if I ever claim otherwise. My comment re. not true scum in Draculafia is because I didn't fit into a traditional scum faction (at least at game start). You are of course right that I was scum in the broader sense of simply anti-town. But that's all really a bit of a terminology thing, and isn't really relevant.

I disagree that the terminology isn’t relevant; the terminology is what this discussion is about. Yes scum is a term open to some interpretation. That’s why I try to use “mafia” and not “scum” when I want to refer specifically to mafia. So you and I may not have the same definition of scum. But I wonder if we both have the same interpretation of “mafia” and “town”. This conversation isn’t going to continue here, because it involves discussing role PMs. But let’s just go by the strict definition of what is town, independent, and mafia. jimbob, will you please copy and post the following?

I am town.
I am not independent.
I am not mafia.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby dimochka » Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:03 pm UTC

Current Votals:

Emlightened (1) - SDK


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Day 2 ends in about 3.5 days.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:40 pm UTC

I am town.
I am not independent.
I am not mafia.

Sorry, can't post more now. Barely getting time to read, but should have more time over the weekend.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:42 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I still do not see how mentioning that results might have been tampered with is suspicious.
Town's main weapons against scum are investigation results, Cop/Tracker/etc. Doubting them without a good reason deprives us of a huge advantage. Even alluding to it is suspicious because it plants the seed of doubt.
Gopher of Pern wrote:Of course town can lie. Do you think a cop in an otherwise normal game should not lie about being a regular town?
Please show me an example where (in a closed setup) a Cop outright denied being a Cop at first, claimed Cop later and was not lynched. Normally we do not go around in the circle, asking everyone if they're our Cop/Doc/whatever, so there is no reason for Cop to lie before he claims. And if we're in an open setup (like Alternating 9P on this forum) then we especially do not discuss the identity of our power roles.


And there was a reason for doubting them, as there were two redirectors. But it has since been clarified. So, again, what is your point?

With the lying thing, I have lied multiple times as town, and will lie again, if I thin it helps towns chances at winning the game. Hell, I don't mind being lynched as town if it helps town win. I guess it's just a difference of play styles.

SDK, I don't think them claiming is going to help town. If they are town, and they claim, it gives scum / indys another way to kill them. If they are scum, they are going to just try to confuse us. I would rather vote for them.

emlightened, just wondering, do you know if you were targeted, or did you target someone last night?

bessie, why are you tunnelling so hard on jimbob? Do you have a lie detector or something?

moody, can you explain a bit more on the little birdy? Do you think one of the redirectors interfered with the power? How trustworthy is that info to you?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby matt96 » Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:59 pm UTC

Looks like Day/Night 1 went rather well. For now I'm inclined to believe the present moody received, mainly because I doubt scum would lie about getting something like that, with one of the 3 players already dead and confirmed town, this early in the game after losing two members day/night 1. As far as GoP seeming to have gotten on everyone's nerves goes, I'd rather leave him alone for now while we deal with sorting out the investigative results. Given the strength of the eliminated mafia roles, I think it is entirely possible that there may only be one more, as a potential extra kill and vote-block could make up for fewer scum depending on the powers town got.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby emlightened » Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:43 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
emlightened wrote:Unless any of you think it's a bad idea for me to say under what conditions (e.g. we find adnapemit scummier, and don't want to risk non-town killing me), then I'm happy to reveal them.
I think you should reveal, as otherwise this just reeks of desperate attempt of scum trying to wiggle out of it.


Okay! Whenever someone targets me, they are roleblocked. However, if I am targeted on three separate nights, or targeted by three people on one night, I die.

Gopher of Pern wrote:emlightened, just wondering, do you know if you were targeted, or did you target someone last night?
I don't know if I was, and I can't target people.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:40 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:emlightened, just wondering, do you know if you were targeted, or did you target someone last night?

Gopher, why did you ask this question?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:40 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:emlightened, just wondering, do you know if you were targeted, or did you target someone last night?

Gopher, why did you ask this question?


Can't say.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby moody7277 » Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:27 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:moody, can you explain a bit more on the little birdy? Do you think one of the redirectors interfered with the power? How trustworthy is that info to you?


If someone that the consensus has a more townie read on asked me that, I might answer. For you, not so much.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Djehutynakht » Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:08 am UTC

Sorry guys. Still... lurking, as such.

I've been trying to keep up with a general skim of what's being posted. I can't say that I'm getting any particular reads at the moment though, but it certainly seems as if there is some contention going on, and that might make for some helpful analysis soon enough.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:39 am UTC

SDK wrote:Madge, just checked the Countdown, and it says 3 days, 14 hours, 42 minutes from the time of this post. Were you going to change that to 2 days? Either way it's over the weekend for me, so I don't much care.


I edited my post and the countdown timer to reflect the earlier deadline after people brought it up. So the deadline on the timer in that post should reflect the 4 day/weekends half time deadline that was imposed.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 17, 2016 2:49 pm UTC

@Gopher of Pern: I think I've made my point clear several times already, I have no inclination to repeat it once more.
Regarding lying as Town: I agree that there are fringe cases where it's possible, however doing so sets up dangerous precedence that can be exploited by scum. It definitely shouldn't be such a common occurence that you seem to imply.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:42 pm UTC

If I think lying will improve my chances at winning the game, I will lie. That said, I haven't felt the need to lie this game.

moody, my next question would be, do you refuse to answer that question because you think it will benefit scum more, or simply because it was me asking it? I'm sorta inclined to trust you are telling the truth, but more information is usually more helpful to town. Hence me asking.

Aside from Sabrar, no one has posted any real reasons to find me scummy, so it seems like you are all just following the herd.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby adnapemit » Sun Dec 18, 2016 10:29 am UTC

moody7277 wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:moody, can you explain a bit more on the little birdy? Do you think one of the redirectors interfered with the power? How trustworthy is that info to you?

If someone that the consensus has a more townie read on asked me that, I might answer. For you, not so much.

GoP may be looking scummy but why not answer? At least the last part of it. Moody, do you have any reason for thinking the information is wrong or even any reason that you think it's trustworthy? If you don't then what is your opinion on how accurate it could be?
If you did think there was anything untrustworthy about it, as the person who received the results I think it would be important to say even if you didn't reveal the exact reason.
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