Secret Santa 2016 - D5 - Happy New Year!

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 12, 2016 4:37 pm UTC

kalira wrote:FOS: Roadie
You're the last one to check in,

I think SDK still hasn't said a word. Unless you've already been communicating in your scum-chat...

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Mon Dec 12, 2016 4:47 pm UTC

Hello! I haven't read the thread yet. Are we still in RVS?

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Mon Dec 12, 2016 4:47 pm UTC

Man, that felt good! It's been a long time since I played a game! Back in a bit.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 12, 2016 4:53 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:(Of course, scum would say that they are town, so I don't really expect anybody to put any weight behind the claim).
This comment pings me for some reason. It is so evident that scum would claim Town, why would you feel the need to include it?

PS: real life has me quite busy these days, aside from some short phone-posts I can only focus on this during my working hours. I probably won't post any of my usual wall-of-texts D1 (maybe on Wednesday?), after that things should normalize a bit.

Ninja'd by SDK: no serious vote yet, feel free to pile upon me.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby kalira » Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:52 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
kalira wrote:FOS: Roadie
You're the last one to check in,

I think SDK still hasn't said a word. Unless you've already been communicating in your scum-chat...


Bugger, I thought I had gone through and seen everyone else's name. Roadie still deserves a bit of FOS for no comments on anything that went before, but I stand corrected on his status as last to the party. SDK says he'll be back later, so I'm hoping that means we'll get something from him soon. For that, he will get a pass for the current moment, but my finger will get a little twitchy if he doesn't come back soon-ish with some sort of content.

IDK about jimbob's comment, Sabrar. It is so evident that scum would claim Town, yes, but by the same token, I feel like we see some sort of comment like that in almost every game. I mean, if he didn't caveat it, someone else would. Now the fact that he felt the need to claim he was Town at all in the way he did is slightly pingy to me, just because I don't think it follows as being necessary after his previous paragraph. It strikes me as kind of an "Oh I mentioned some times where I was anti-town, so I should make sure they know I'm not a threat this time," but not something that needed to be said.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:02 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Well let’s see where we are. I don’t random vote, but others seem to enjoy it, so I won’t place a vote until everyone has had an opportunity to be part of the random voting fun.

You would have voted for kalira otherwise?

moody7277 wrote:re jimbob, he's got the same ~1/4 possibility of being scum as the rest of you have. His previous roles have nothing to do with that chance (hence my mentioning of the Gambler's fallacy), and also that game was by design using the more peculiar roles, so I think its applicability is a bit limited. Segueing into setup spec, I figure on 9/3/1(sk)/1(other indep), and thankfully the rules preclude cult. Basically, in a game with over a certain number of people, I'm going to assume SK until shown otherwise by body count, and even then I'm still going to have holding back as a possibility.

*waves*

I'd think 10/4 or 10/3/1 is more likely than 9/3/1/1, but whatever. We'll see what happens.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:...the killing ability might just be in addition to whatever normal ability a player has.

Yes, exactly. The kill would be considered a factional ability.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:1) Roughly how many game days do people think this game will last?
2) How likely do you feel that players other than yourself have roles that do not fit with (i.e. are the same as or minor variations of) any of the "traditional" Mafia roles, and why? (As per game rules don't use "because I did (not) submit one myself" style answers! Also unless you particularly want to claim it, I'm not looking for answers along the lines of "because I received a traditional role" etc).

1) 4, because we're going to catch all the baddies right here, right now. I think we theoretically should be able to do it in 3, but let's not get too crazy.
2) In my experience, games like this result in 30-50% traditional roles. Why do you ask?

emlightened wrote:1) I'd say that it'll probably end between D4 and N5, but it might be a day outside it.

That's quite specific. Why not D6+?



Current scum picks: RoadieRich, jimbobmacdoodle and moody - in that order. Any takers?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:03 pm UTC

Unvote

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:05 pm UTC

@SDK: just to be clear, was that a serious vote?

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:15 pm UTC

Yes.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Dec 12, 2016 11:29 pm UTC

Unvote

SDK wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:...the killing ability might just be in addition to whatever normal ability a player has.

Yes, exactly. The kill would be considered a factional ability.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:1) Roughly how many game days do people think this game will last?
2) How likely do you feel that players other than yourself have roles that do not fit with (i.e. are the same as or minor variations of) any of the "traditional" Mafia roles, and why? (As per game rules don't use "because I did (not) submit one myself" style answers! Also unless you particularly want to claim it, I'm not looking for answers along the lines of "because I received a traditional role" etc).

1) 4, because we're going to catch all the baddies right here, right now. I think we theoretically should be able to do it in 3, but let's not get too crazy.
2) In my experience, games like this result in 30-50% traditional roles. Why do you ask?
I ask because I wanted to have something to try to analyse a little in my next post. For instance, people with additional kill powers, e.g. SK might well unthinkingly post a low number. It's hardly significant evidence, but it's better than nothing. I can't actually think of anything useful that Town can gain from the second question, and probably should have thought more about what I wanted to gain from it when I posted the question in the first place, but at least it gives people something to talk about, and its the way they talk about things that we can really look at.

Incidentally, your response to my first question seemed a little throw away to me. Care to explain why you didn't give a more serious answer? Or am I misinterpreting it?

To answer my own questions anyway, in case anybody else wants to analyse the response:
1) Going with my no SK theory from my previous post, I reckon that the game will last approximately 5 Days, with roughly 4 scum kills, 5 lynches, including at least 1 mislynch, and a couple of additional kills from player abilities.
2) I think additional kill abilities are more likely than not, but are unlikely to be standard vig-style abilities. Roleblockers and the like are also quite likely, in my opinion. I wouldn't be surprised if there are no investigative roles at all. I expect roughly two-thirds will be based on traditional roles, but will none will be exact duplicates. The reason is that I think people struggle to come up with completely original ideas, but can easily twist existing roles to make them unusual.

I posted my Town claim, mostly to round off my previous paragraph, and because it flowed into my point about ability not fitting well with town alignment. The bit in brackets was because I know that people have jumped on others in the past for claiming Town explicitly, and wanted to essentially acknowledge the fact that I could be lying and prevent the exact cry of scum that has already arisen by me saying so. The rest of my statement was more what was significant. With hindsight, perhaps I could have phrased things better.

I'm not buying the suspicion by bessie and roadie on emlightened because she tried to look at the flavour in detail, especially since she asked a question to find out if there was any point.

I will try to look at people a bit more detail (including other responses to my questions) at some point tomorrow or Wednesday, but I have to go to bed now. In particular, I'm going to be glaring at those players who responded to my post but haven't posted anything else since, as I think it's easy for scum to post bland responses to questions to look like they are participating without providing any particularly interesting content.

...Wow this turned into a wall of text surprisingly easily.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby emlightened » Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:36 am UTC

SDK wrote:
emlightened wrote:1) I'd say that it'll probably end between D4 and N5, but it might be a day outside it.

That's quite specific. Why not D6+?

I wouldn't be surprised if it ended on D6 or N6 (why I said it might be a day outside that), but doubt that it would go on for any longer, again due to expecting more kills. 5 kills every two days (lynch, mafia, and other alternating kill) would leave us at the end of the game at about D5,

kalira wrote:If you want to try to convince me how a directed kill could work for scum wincon without being way too OP with a factional NK, I'm open to listening, but it seems to me like that wouldn't work.
I think that it seems moderately reasonable if there were 3 Mafia, but a conditional or every-other-night kill could still have made its way into the game with 4 scum; we have no reason to assume that this wouldn't be compensated in the submission with a disadvantage, and that's before the mods modify the power if necessary for balance. I see little reason why a kill power, although possibly a weak one, wouldn't be submitted and subsequently make it into the game, except by chance.
Oh, and there's possibly also the chance of almost everyone having crazy pro-town roles, so it might be reasonable for 4 Mafia + Kill in that case.

I'm having a bit of trouble with Roadie, probably because he's only popped in once so far, and it seems to have been more to avoid lurking than to provide content, though possible slight OMGUS. Not sure if I have this issue with SDK; whilst most of his larger post has been replies, he seems interactive and trying to engage with people, so I think I'm fine with him.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Madge » Tue Dec 13, 2016 1:12 am UTC

Votals:

adnapemit (1) - Emlightened
RoadieRich (1) - SDK
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 1:25 am UTC

@kalira: The reason I figure that there is only one of {SK,vig} is that either there was only one role submitted with a kill attached or, if there were more than one such submitted (kind of possible given the bloodthirsty bunch on the player list), Madge only picked one to use (most likely with the most fun side effects) and reworked or discarded the other(s).

Unvote

Snap judgements on people:

adnapemit- role spec. spec about jimbob in support of Sabrar's comment. fairly reasonable on estimates for duration. slightly townie

bessie- scattershot reactions, one pro-Sabrar, one anti-emlightened. insufficient data

Carlington- RV SirG, switches to e coli. kind of playing loose. slightly townie

DJ- reaction to RV. insuffiecent data.

emlightened- RV adnapemit, very closely analysing flavor (which seems to be a point of contention). answers jimbob's post. neutral.

GoP- fluff post. insufficient data to slightly scummy.

jimbob- return-RV on Sabrar. second post has explanation of his recent playing past and a town claim in the first two paragraphs, setup spec leading up to his questions. third post says "I know that bit in my last post is wineish" along with answering his own questions. slightly scummy

kalira- RV freddy kruger. cogent reminders on the lack of alignments of submitted roles. disagrees with emlightened about SK. suspicious of RR, and also jimbob. slightly townie.

matt96- RV Carlington. some setup spec and role spec that I thought was obvious. insufficent data.

RoadieRich- joke votes himself. concerned with meta. insufficient data to slightly scummy.

Sabrar- RV jimbob based off lack of his being scum in recent games. some rolespec, then some attempt at justifying his joke vote. unvotes with some mention of Madge's intent. answer to jimbob's question, then finds something else to be anti-jimbob about. something going on here, IGMEoY.

SDK- RV Sabrar. scattershot reactions, looking very confident. switches vote to RR. ask me D3 about him.

SirG- RV DJ, some reaction to the no spoiler reading rule, response on the role/alignment submission disconnect that follows my interpretation. answering jimbob's question, and more discussion as in his post responding to matt. neutral.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby bessie » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:17 am UTC

I was a little busier yesterday than I expected. Here’s some quick impressions/responses.

Sabrar wrote:I think people are keen to read too much into flavour even when nothing suggests that it would be indicative. I'n not going to hold that against anyone.
I think that there is a difference between someone trying to dig some clues out of the flavor, which may or may not be there, and a deliberate attempt to mislead and/or distract. Is there a point where you would decide a fixation on the flavor was the later, not the former? Or is it always a null tell?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:For complete clarity, my last (and only) game as true scum was in Misnomer's Smalltown 2. I was also sort-of scum in Draculafia (sort-of in the sense that I was actually trying to kill scum effectively at the start of the game, so could be considered to be indie-aligned),
I think we had this argument already in Draculafia, but if you have an anti-town win condition, you are anti-town. If you can only win with mafia, you are scum.


I haven't done any setup speculation yet. Hmm, let’s see. Madge mod, 14 players… I’ll go with 8-3-1-1-1.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Semi-arbitrary question time to try to get another discussion thread or two going:
1) Roughly how many game days do people think this game will last?
2) How likely do you feel that players other than yourself have roles that do not fit with (i.e. are the same as or minor variations of) any of the "traditional" Mafia roles, and why? (As per game rules don't use "because I did (not) submit one myself" style answers! Also unless you particularly want to claim it, I'm not looking for answers along the lines of "because I received a traditional role" etc).
1. 4
2. Very, because I think most players would try to submit something fun or creative.

emlightened wrote:I'm also inclined to believe that there's going to be a SK or a vig (probably submitted), mainly because it seems likely someone submitted a kill power, and that it would be kept in for the game pace (otherwise 7/8 days is reasonable for 1 kill + lynch after roleblocks and doctors) and not be in Mafia hands, unless there are 3 mafia (which is a possibility, but seems unlikely).
Note to self: emlightened’s second post, and the second time she pushes a serial killer.

RoadieRich wrote:And I will go ahead and FoS: emlightened for reading far too much into opening flavour. What are you trying to distract us from?
I would be interested in having this question answered too.

kalira wrote:
emlightened wrote:I'm also inclined to believe that there's going to be a SK or a vig (probably submitted), mainly because it seems likely someone submitted a kill power...


I somewhat disagree with this. The rules for submission stated that the roles couldn't "only work with certain win conditions" -- I think submitting a kill power might violate this, or at least really seriously skirt the edge of it, because I don't think it would work with a Mafia win condition. Key there for me is the fact that win conditions is plural -- if it was singular in that rule, you could probably get away with submitting it because "oh hey, it doesn't only work with one win condition; it works for anything not scum." IMO, a kill power would work for a town wincon and an indie wincon, but I can't see how it would for a scum wincon (cult is out of realm of possibility, so not considered in this analysis). If you want to try to convince me how a directed kill could work for scum wincon without being way too OP with a factional NK, I'm open to listening, but it seems to me like that wouldn't work.

Now that's not to say that I don't think there's a possibility of an SK or a vig out there -- I wouldn't put it past the mods to simply tack that on to a role with some minor(?) flavor adjustments to make sure it doesn't seem completely weird for that role to have it. I just don't know if it would have been a submittable role power.

Of course, now that I have written all of this out, it seems silly to have written it simply to argue the point of how an SK/vig got in game, rather than to argue whether or not they are present.
Second note to self: Another interesting interaction between kalira and emlightened. I’ll just leave it there for now.

SDK wrote:
bessie wrote:Well let’s see where we are. I don’t random vote, but others seem to enjoy it, so I won’t place a vote until everyone has had an opportunity to be part of the random voting fun.

You would have voted for kalira otherwise?
No. At the time I made that post, I would have voted for emlightened. But that was before this very active lurky post by kalira.

SDK wrote:Current scum picks: RoadieRich, jimbobmacdoodle and moody - in that order. Any takers?
Sure, I’ll ask. Why do you find moody scummy?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm not buying the suspicion by bessie and roadie on emlightened because she tried to look at the flavour in detail, especially since she asked a question to find out if there was any point.
1. To what question are you referring?
2. Please reply to the question I asked Sabrar at the top of this post.


emlightened wrote:
kalira wrote:If you want to try to convince me how a directed kill could work for scum wincon without being way too OP with a factional NK, I'm open to listening, but it seems to me like that wouldn't work.
I think that it seems moderately reasonable if there were 3 Mafia, but a conditional or every-other-night kill could still have made its way into the game with 4 scum; we have no reason to assume that this wouldn't be compensated in the submission with a disadvantage, and that's before the mods modify the power if necessary for balance. I see little reason why a kill power, although possibly a weak one, wouldn't be submitted and subsequently make it into the game, except by chance.
Oh, and there's possibly also the chance of almost everyone having crazy pro-town roles, so it might be reasonable for 4 Mafia + Kill in that case.
Leaving this here so I can find it easily later.

emlightened wrote:I'm having a bit of trouble with Roadie, probably because he's only popped in once so far, and it seems to have been more to avoid lurking than to provide content, though possible slight OMGUS. Not sure if I have this issue with SDK; whilst most of his larger post has been replies, he seems interactive and trying to engage with people, so I think I'm fine with him.
So what do you think of Djehutynakht so far?

moody7277 wrote:bessie- scattershot reactions, one pro-Sabrar, one anti-emlightened. insufficient data
And one anti kalira. Why did you leave that out?

I'll try to get a list up in a little while.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:36 am UTC

bessie wrote:I think that there is a difference between someone trying to dig some clues out of the flavor, which may or may not be there, and a deliberate attempt to mislead and/or distract. Is there a point where you would decide a fixation on the flavor was the later, not the former? Or is it always a null tell?

There is a point but it would have to be pretty blatant, disregarding actual gameplay almost completely. As a genetal rule I do not think that 'distracting' other players is a valid strategy as we are all individuals and will rarely do what scum wants us to do. Or this is my hope at least, of course this requires active participation from all of us and not just reacting to what's been said before.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby emlightened » Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:37 am UTC

bessie wrote:
RoadieRich wrote:And I will go ahead and FoS: emlightened for reading far too much into opening flavour. What are you trying to distract us from?
I would be interested in having this question answered too.
I'm not trying to distract, I was trying to bring up a valid potential point, which happens to have been rendered moot. I'm wondering why you both want me to answer that question when its clear that the answer I give would almost definitely be without value, regardless of alignment.

As far as the SK goes, I think it's likely for reasons already stated. I made my point in my first post, and I also intended it as justifying my first response in my second post, although obviously I shouldn't have just tacked it on the end.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:59 am UTC

Vote: emlightened

I'm also inclined to believe that there's going to be a SK or a vig (probably submitted), mainly because it seems likely someone submitted a kill power, and that it would be kept in for the game pace (otherwise 7/8 days is reasonable for 1 kill + lynch after roleblocks and doctors) and not be in Mafia hands, unless there are 3 mafia (which is a possibility, but seems unlikely).


Why would you think 3 mafia is unlikely?

jimbob wrote:Semi-arbitrary question time to try to get another discussion thread or two going:
1) Roughly how many game days do people think this game will last?
2) How likely do you feel that players other than yourself have roles that do not fit with (i.e. are the same as or minor variations of) any of the "traditional" Mafia roles, and why? (As per game rules don't use "because I did (not) submit one myself" style answers! Also unless you particularly want to claim it, I'm not looking for answers along the lines of "because I received a traditional role" etc).


What wasn't arbitrary about those questions? You seem to have a reason for asking them.

As for my answers:
1) Don't know, as long as it needs to be. 5 to 6 days seems typical, but it depends on how many killing powers there are.
2) Ordinarily, I would say all bar one or two roles would be standard or close to. Considering the nature of this game, I would say maybe 1 or 2 more than normal.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:15 am UTC

bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm not buying the suspicion by bessie and roadie on emlightened because she tried to look at the flavour in detail, especially since she asked a question to find out if there was any point.
1. To what question are you referring?
Emlightened's mod-question re flavour and possibility of clues contained therein.
bessie wrote:2. Please reply to the question I asked Sabrar at the top of this post.
In general I feel it more likely to be a null tell, especially on D1 (there's precious little else to go on initially). The interesting question is more whether the player in question is looking at other things, such as player content. I need to reread to figure out my general opinion of emlightened, and I don't have time on my bus ride into work now. However, if flavour was all she was looking at or she kept referring back to ideas justified solely on flavour, then I'd be suspicious. Does that answer your question?

For those who feel emlightened's flavour analysis was a deliberate distraction, why do you feel that way?
Gopher of Pern wrote:What wasn't arbitrary about those questions? You seem to have a reason for asking them.
No strong reasons for the specific questions. I decided that I wanted to ask a couple of questions for reasons outlined in my previous post. The first as noted might draw out sone interesting responses that could reveal people's knowledge re. killing roles. Both would also help me draw my own conclusions re. setup as well and would hopefully point out if I was way off base with my thinking.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:39 am UTC

So a 2-hour meeting has just been cancelled which means I have time for some quick reactions.

Lurkiest of lurking lurkers: Carlington, for not having a single comment on actual game-related stuff despite miltiple posts.
Needs to see the funny side of life: moody7277, for taking my joke vote and subsequent unvote too seriously.
Player who hasn't changed a bit: SDK, for jumping straight into the middle and calling people scummy based on relatively low amount of content. Aside: my scumdar on D1 is usually terrible but I can see at least a little bit of reason why he picked those 3.
Most likely to claim indie at some point in order to prevent his/her lynch: bessie, for speculating about having 3 indies in the game.

adnapemit wrote:(I am currently thinking there might only be 3 mafia)
Why? Previous Secret Santa had 14 players as well, with 4 Mafia plus an SK. Why would you think that having only 3 Mafia is more likely?

And that's it for now.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby adnapemit » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:36 am UTC

kalira wrote:IDK about jimbob's comment, Sabrar. It is so evident that scum would claim Town, yes, but by the same token, I feel like we see some sort of comment like that in almost every game. I mean, if he didn't caveat it, someone else would. Now the fact that he felt the need to claim he was Town at all in the way he did is slightly pingy to me, just because I don't think it follows as being necessary after his previous paragraph.

I agree slightly pingy but he might have just wanted to claim early that his ability is more scummy before he is later called scummy for having that ability.
But in this game we may not be able to judge alignment based on ability so claiming town with the claim of non so townie abilities doesn't mean much this early in the game.

Emlightened hasn't removed her vote on me.

bessie wrote:
RoadieRich wrote:And I will go ahead and FoS: emlightened for reading far too much into opening flavour. What are you trying to distract us from?
I would be interested in having this question answered too.

Is this directed to emlightened or RoadieRich? The latter being the more seemingly attempting to distract.
SDK wrote:
bessie wrote:Well let’s see where we are. I don’t random vote, but others seem to enjoy it, so I won’t place a vote until everyone has had an opportunity to be part of the random voting fun.

You would have voted for kalira otherwise?
No. At the time I made that post, I would have voted for emlightened. But that was before this very active lurky post by kalira.

Can you describe a bit more why you think that is active lurky? I might not consider it overly useful but more so than active lurky.

@Golpher of Pern: You voted emlightened. Just because she found 3 mafia unlikely or another reason?

Sabrar wrote:
adnapemit wrote:(I am currently thinking there might only be 3 mafia)
Why? Previous Secret Santa had 14 players as well, with 4 Mafia plus an SK. Why would you think that having only 3 Mafia is more likely?

A fleeting though It was a thought based on pretty much nothing. 3 still feels like the right number but I hadn't actually looked at the previous game ...
It is of course safer to play as if there are 4 mafia (I don't know if it makes much difference to the scum hunting method except for more pressure to get lynches right) and I will be keeping in mind that there could be a team of 3 or 4 when considering how players interact.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Carlington » Tue Dec 13, 2016 1:53 pm UTC

Hi. I've been busy today getting my computer into a less exploded state (with some success!)
Not much time/energy now because sleep, just a few quick things.
I reckon, based on typical form here, we'll be done around D4 or D5.
I have no idea how many non-standard roles there will be. Alignment notwithstanding, I broadly reckon there will be maybe 3/4 investigative roles, 2/3 protective roles, probably a mason group, possibly a PGO, and probably one killing role aside from the factional Mafia kill. It goes without saying almost that these won't necessarily be plain old doctor or cop roles - probably there's some sort of tweaks been made.
As to how much the submitted roles would have been twerked, I imagine Madge would have changed things as little as possible, and only where absolutely necessary to maintain balance. I'd bet on a breakdown of probably 10/3/1, although 10/4 with a vig is possible or 9/3/1/1 I suppose. I think this because I reckon a good balance is somewhere between 25% and 33% of players being Mafia, but 10/4 seems like too many, so 10/3/1 (11/3 seems too town-favouring).
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby emlightened » Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:44 pm UTC

Unvote

Gopher of Pern wrote:Vote: emlightened

I'm also inclined to believe that there's going to be a SK or a vig (probably submitted), mainly because it seems likely someone submitted a kill power, and that it would be kept in for the game pace (otherwise 7/8 days is reasonable for 1 kill + lynch after roleblocks and doctors) and not be in Mafia hands, unless there are 3 mafia (which is a possibility, but seems unlikely).


Why would you think 3 mafia is unlikely?
Because it seems too town heavy, even with an indie (or maybe two) because of the masses of power roles out there.

I'll either be asleep or making another post in 7 hours time, because I haven't got time now.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:05 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Needs to see the funny side of life: moody7277, for taking my joke vote and subsequent unvote too seriously.


I'll admit my sense of humor is non-standard, but to my eye and in comparison to other joke votes for fictional characters and bacteria, you were putting in a lot of effort in justifying the joke. Plus, you went back to find something else about jimbob after rescinding it; smacks of tunneling to me.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby dimochka » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:26 pm UTC

Current Votals (I think...):

Carlington (1) - Matt96
RoadieRich (1) - SDK
Emlightened (1) - Gopher of Pern
Last edited by dimochka on Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:26 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:26 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Plus, you went back to find something else about jimbob after rescinding it; smacks of tunneling to me.

Are you seriously suggesting that just because I random vote another player at the start I'm then forbidden to analyze their content for the rest of the game?

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby bessie » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:34 pm UTC

I only have about ten minutes.
Sabrar wrote:Most likely to claim indie at some point in order to prevent his/her lynch: bessie, for speculating about having 3 indies in the game.
I can think of about four reasons you would make this remark. Which one is it?

Sabrar wrote:Lurkiest of lurking lurkers: Carlington, for not having a single comment on actual game-related stuff despite miltiple posts.
OK, good. You're keeping track of lurkers. Why haven't you mentioned Djehutynakht, or asked for a mod prod? Perhaps DJ's scum partners don't want to draw any attention to his lack of useful content.

adnapemit wrote:Can you describe a bit more why you think that is active lurky? I might not consider it overly useful but more so than active lurky.
A paragraph on a lurker and a paragraph on a town claim. If not overly useful, can you point out what you believe is somewhat useful in that post?

I really need to leave. I will get to the remainder of you later.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:49 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Plus, you went back to find something else about jimbob after rescinding it; smacks of tunneling to me.

Are you seriously suggesting that just because I random vote another player at the start I'm then forbidden to analyze their content for the rest of the game?


No, but I had not seen any analysis of any other player. Then bessie shows in the very next post after yours where you had done some of this, which blows up my hypothesis.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:53 pm UTC

Deadline in 27 hours plus change. We need to get a proper wagon going here! Everyone tell me what they think of Roadie, jimbob and bessie.

bessie wrote:
SDK wrote:
bessie wrote:Well let’s see where we are. I don’t random vote, but others seem to enjoy it, so I won’t place a vote until everyone has had an opportunity to be part of the random voting fun.

You would have voted for kalira otherwise?
No. At the time I made that post, I would have voted for emlightened. But that was before this very active lurky post by kalira.

How about now? kalira and emlightened in particular, but other scum picks if you've got 'em.

bessie wrote:Sure, I’ll ask. Why do you find moody scummy?

The inclusion of "even then I'm still going to have holding back as a possibility" in this post made me raise my eyebrows. His next post is just solid numbers, which can kinda go either way, but tends to indicate that he's playing for himself. moody's okay though. He's back down to neutral now.

Is there a reason you asked about moody in particular? Do you see the scumminess in Roadie and jimbob?



Sabrar, have we ever been scum buddies before? I want to be on your team, but I can't remember if that's remembering a past fun game we had as scum together, or if it's just because I think our styles would work well together. Semi-related question: Do you think we're on the same team this game?



Gopher of Pern wrote:Vote: emlightened

Gopher, what was this vote based on? Reviewing emlightened's posts, I see no indication that she's scum.



moody7277 wrote:Plus, you went back to find something else about jimbob after rescinding it; smacks of tunneling to me.

So let's say you're right on the money and Sabrar is tunneling. In light of the rest of Sabrar's content, do you think that makes him scum?
moody7277 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Plus, you went back to find something else about jimbob after rescinding it; smacks of tunneling to me.

Are you seriously suggesting that just because I random vote another player at the start I'm then forbidden to analyze their content for the rest of the game?


No, but I had not seen any analysis of any other player. Then bessie shows in the very next post after yours where you had done some of this, which blows up my hypothesis.

What hypothesis is that, and what does bessie have to do with it?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:58 pm UTC

emlightened wrote:Unvote

Gopher of Pern wrote:Vote: emlightened

I'm also inclined to believe that there's going to be a SK or a vig (probably submitted), mainly because it seems likely someone submitted a kill power, and that it would be kept in for the game pace (otherwise 7/8 days is reasonable for 1 kill + lynch after roleblocks and doctors) and not be in Mafia hands, unless there are 3 mafia (which is a possibility, but seems unlikely).


Why would you think 3 mafia is unlikely?
Because it seems too town heavy, even with an indie (or maybe two) because of the masses of power roles out there.

I'll either be asleep or making another post in 7 hours time, because I haven't got time now.


Then you must know a lot more about the setup than I do, because despite everyone being a power role in this game, it also mean the scum have power roles. And power roles are inherently more powerful in scum hands, as they have more knowledge than town.

And you think there is only a couple of indies? Why is that?

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:54 pm UTC

Requesting mod-prod on Djehutynakht and matt96

@bessie:
- I thought I would have the time to go through every player and hand out 'awards'. Then I got sucked back into work and had to leave it unfinished.
- I'm not able to keep 13 other players' content in mind, especially when some have so similar avatars which I most often use to look for a specific player's content. Carlington has a bright, distinct avatar that I remembered having not seen for a while and checked for his earlier contribution. I didn't look at Dj yet at that moment and didn't think that anyone would be lurking more due to the recommended 'one post per real-life day' minimum. But you're right of course, though why didn't you ask for a mod-prod or mentioned matt96?
- Your role-spec was very different from every other players' due to the 3 indies so I commented on that.
- Do you mind sharing your version of 4 reasons for my post, because I honestly can't see them?

@SDK: we haven't been scum-buddies before. I'm inclined to think that we're on the same team.

More content hopefully tomorrow.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SDK » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:08 pm UTC

Discussion is great, but we've only got one day left here. We need a decision pronto. So what's it going to be? Roadie, jimbob, bessie or someone else?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:17 pm UTC

@SDK: My hypothesis was that Sabrar's tunneling was indicative of a lazy approach to scum-hunting, which might have been scummy. bessie's post immediately after Sabrar asked me about this point showed that he had done some analysis of other players, therefore not tunneling, ergo boom.

Out of the three players you mentioned, I'd be most comfortable lynching RoadieRich. bessie's insufficient data status has resolved to slightly townie, jimbob is posting enough that if he is scum there'll be plenty to pick at, while RR's only post could charitably called circumferential.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby matt96 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:41 pm UTC

I'm here, looks like things are happening, I had been trying to figure out a way to ask some mod questions to possibly draw out some new information, like whether any role which would need to be adjusted was adjusted before or after being given an alignment and if a serial killer's kill would be derived from role or alignment, but I doubt anything would really come of it other than No Comment. I'm currently trying to work out how things are shaping up, because unlike most day 1's, there doesn't seem to be any main issue yet. I could see any of the suggested possible setups suggested working, depending on what sorts of powers everyone has and what win conditions any possible independents have, more indies that would do best siding with scum come end game meaning fewer scum and/or stronger town powers, fewer meaning the opposite. I'll
Unvote
for now, and try to get something better content wise in the next several hours

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:17 pm UTC

Wow, that deadline really snuck up on me. I guess now is a good time for an analysis post.

adnapemit - A lot of questions and several comments regarding setup, but I didn't see any particularly useful content. Slightly scummy.

bessie - A lot of long quotes followed by short responses. Draws attention to kalira and emlightened. Promises more content but has yet to deliver. Neutral.

Carlington - Only one serious post so far, which consists entirely of setup speculation. Expects 3-4 investigative roles (I would guess more like 1-3). Neutral.

Djehutynakht - No serious posts yet, and no posts at all within the past 72 hours.

emlightened - Suspects flavor may contain useful info, asks mod if that is the case. Draws attention to potential active lurking by RoadieRich and SDK. A lot of setup speculation. Neutral.

Gopher of Pern - Brief responses to jimbob's questions, a couple of questions to other players, not much else. Slightly scummy.

jimbobmacdoodle - A good amount of content, and appears to genuinely be trying to get useful content out of others. Consistent with his playstyle as scum as well as with his playstyle as town, but still one of my towniest reads at the moment due to so little content from so many others.

kalira - Even though most of her content is setup speculation, I'm pretty happy with it. She is clearly serious considering the implications of rules/flavor/etc, and she also has a few good comments concerning specific players. Slightly townie.

matt96 - One post (joke vote + setup spec), nothing in the past 72 hours.

moody7277 - Made an analysis post. While I disagree with some of his conclusions, I don't see anything scummy about his analysis. Slightly townie.

RoadieRich - One post, very little content.

Sabrar - Lots of short post, a bit of analysis, dislikes Carlington's lurkiness. Promises more content tomorrow. Neutral.

SDK - Serious vote on RoadieRich with no explanation. Wants to get a wagon started on Roadie, jimbob, and/or bessie. Seems consistent with his typical playstyle. Neutral.


Question for SDK: Why those particular players? You named one of several lurkers, one of several players with multiple posts and little content, and one of the players with the most content, and I don't see anything clearly scummy about the first two compared to others with similar amounts of content (in jimbob's case, I can see why you might think he's scummy, but I don't think one of the few players who is making good contributions should be lynched D1).

That being said, I have no strong scum leads, so I have no problem lynching Roadie for lurkiness.

Vote: RoadieRich

Ninja'd - matt made a serious post, which contains little content but promises more later. Neutral.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:38 pm UTC

Spent too long writing other things and got distracted away from posting here like I should have focused on, so here's a quick check-in and speed analysis of the two other players SDK requested thoughts on. I'll try to look at more people tomorrow evening when I should have more time (possibly also in the morning on the bus ride into work, but I doubt that).

Roadie - Only one post so far, which at least did more than just respond to questions, with his FoS on emlightened. I think the FoS is a little strong, but that might just be the way he uses them. Oddly, he didn't actually respond to one of my questions, but I'm not sure if that's a scum tell I'm actually inclined to think null to slightly townie, as I expect a scum player would have made more effort to not stand out on that matter. Lurkiness is bad, but it's not serious enough for me. In conclusion, I actually have Roadie as slightly townie, but really need to see more data. I'm particularly interested in his responses to various people's suspicions on him.

@SDK - Are you saying that you find bessie scummiest behind me and Roadie? Otherwise, why are you asking about other people's opinions on her?

Also IGMEOY SDK for apparently ignoring my follow-up question re. his answer to my original questions:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Incidentally, your response to my first question seemed a little throw away to me. Care to explain why you didn't give a more serious answer? Or am I misinterpreting it?
bessie - quick read-through of her posts suggests to me that she is either tunnelling too much on a kalira/emlightened scum team at this point. I'm confused by her statement that she considered FoSsing kalira for not spotting poisoning in the flavour, when in one of the quoted posts a few lines up kalira explicitly points out the poisoning. I also disagree that kalira's highlighted post later on is active lurky. In fact, I would argue the opposite, since she put personal opinions in it:
kalira wrote:Now the fact that he felt the need to claim he was Town at all in the way he did is slightly pingy to me, just because I don't think it follows as being necessary after his previous paragraph.
I haven't reread emlightened yet, but as noted, I didn't feel like her analysing the flavour was a big issue, as bessie seems to be thinking. I also find it odd that she seems to be leaving posts for later, which I'm interpreting as a thing to refer back to as finding scummy - it all adds to the feeling of tunnelling I'm getting, seeing that I don't see anything untoward in the player interactions highlighted. My gut says that this isn't the sort of tunnelling where a town player gets laser focused on a small point and blows it out of all proportion, but more the bright red flashing arrow pointing at "look at this person, aren't they scummy" style, i.e. the getting Town to look at specific players to lynch who are not scum buddies, but I could easily be wrong.

That all being said, I do like how bessie is poking different people for explanations, including people other than emlightened and kalira, so perhaps I'm being a little harsh with my earlier analysis.

@bessie - why have you focused so much on a kalira/emlightened scum team? Do you find either or both of them scummy, and if so, could you do a quick summary of why, please?

I'll withhold judgement on bessie until after a response to this. Off to bed now. Thoughts on everyone plus vote tomorrow.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Madge » Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:00 am UTC

DJ has been modprodded.

Day one ends in 24 hours - it is a soft deadline though so if we haven't declared day end, and hammer has not been reached, feel free to continue talking and voting. I have the day off tomorrow so I expect this deadline to be accurate though!

We're hoping for a nightless game so please submit your night actions in advance!

Current Votals:

Carlington (1) - Matt96
RoadieRich (2) - SDK, SirG
Emlightened (1) - Gopher of Pern
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby emlightened » Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:21 am UTC

Ah, crud. That snuck up on me fast. I'll have a chance to answer questions occasionally in the day, but you'll have to wait until about 2-4 hours before deadline for me to have time to analyse. Sorry. Going to sleep now.

And, until he posts again:

Vote: Djehutynakht

For being the lurkiest at the moment.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby Carlington » Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:36 am UTC

SDK having posted scum picks like that with no reasoning lights up my scumdar, especially given how little content he has given outside of that. However, I think he has been a little too flippant or casual for me to buy him being scum, perhaps an indie who can win with town or scum.

@SDK: you've explained why moody, why RoadieRich is obvious enough not to ask, but why bessie and especially why jimbob? What do you know that we don't?

bessie seems unafraid to post opinions, and while I am a little concerned at the tunnelling, her focus seems town!bessie enough.

jimbob's efforts in scum hunting seem genuine to me, I have no trouble believing that he's town at this juncture. He's asked questions and pulled people up for ignoring them, which I like.

RoadieRich is an attractive lynch target due to inactivity, although in general I prefer to let mods handle that in the early game. I can't provide any more analysis for lack of content. DJ same, natch.

moody is quite probably town, lots of straight-shooting analysis in his posts and a typically direct style.

I thought emlightened looking at the flavour that way was weird, maybe not scummy, and the focus on SK from them was weird and maybe suggestive?

SirG has had a good amount to say and it all seems to be held up by good reasoning, so I'm satisfied.

I'm about to get to work now so I'll post, the players I didn't mention are all fairly neutral but I'll come back in a bit and look a little bit more at them too.

Ninja'd by emlightened: why DJ who is subject to a mod response and not RR who isn't? Has RR been more active in your scum chat?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby bessie » Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:49 am UTC

Here’s a few more responses I didn’t have time for in my last post.

bessie wrote:
moody7277 wrote:bessie- scattershot reactions, one pro-Sabrar, one anti-emlightened. insufficient data
And one anti kalira. Why did you leave that out?
moody, did you answer this?

adnapemit wrote:
bessie wrote:
RoadieRich wrote:And I will go ahead and FoS: emlightened for reading far too much into opening flavour. What are you trying to distract us from?
I would be interested in having this question answered too.

Is this directed to emlightened or RoadieRich? The latter being the more seemingly attempting to distract.
I wanted emlightened to respond to RoadieRich’s question. And she did. Here.

Ok, now the new content.

SDK wrote:How about now? kalira and emlightened in particular, but other scum picks if you've got 'em.

In reading kalira’s and emlightened’s content, the interaction between the two gives me the feeling that they are working together. Summary of posts:

kalira: Joke vote, some role spec.
emlightened: Joke vote, questionable flavor interpretation, serial killer.
kalira: Responds to emlightened with her own questionable interpretation, because she speculates that it may be poison. According to the flavor it is poison, which kalira missed.
emlightened: Responds to jimbobmacdoodle’s questions, mentions serial killer again.
kalira: Role speculation. Responds to emlightened on the serial killer speculation, FoS RoadieRich. Some questions for moody.
kalira: Responds to Sabrar on lurking and role spec. This is the post I found quite fluffy.
emlightened: Responds to SDK on setup. Responds to kalira on role spec/serial killer. Had a problem with RoadieRich (conveniently FoSed by kalira in her previous post).
emlightened: Responds to bessie and RoadieRich re flavor read and serial killer.
emlightened: Responds to Gopher of Pern on setup.
emlightened: Votes Djehutynakht for lurking.

SDK wrote:Is there a reason you asked about moody in particular? Do you see the scumminess in Roadie and jimbob?
I wanted to see if you had any other takers. You didn’t. I find this very interesting, because when you switched your scum picks to RoadieRich-jimbob-bessie, you had a lot more response.

Sabrar wrote:- I'm not able to keep 13 other players' content in mind, especially when some have so similar avatars which I most often use to look for a specific player's content. Carlington has a bright, distinct avatar that I remembered having not seen for a while and checked for his earlier contribution. I didn't look at Dj yet at that moment and didn't think that anyone would be lurking more due to the recommended 'one post per real-life day' minimum.
I hope you take this as the complement that it is, but I don’t believe you. I think you’re way too good of a player and much too clever for this statement to be true. I think you have a pretty good idea of where everyone stands at all times. You knew this:
Sabrar wrote:@SDK: we haven't been scum-buddies before.
Am I really supposed to believe you know that you and SDK have never been scum together, but you can’t remember if DJ posted in this game?

Sabrar wrote: why didn't you ask for a mod-prod or mentioned matt96?
Wanted to see if anyone else would comment on DJ’s lack of content, or if I was the only one who noticed. And compared to DJ, matt96’s content has been stellar.

Sabrar wrote:- Your role-spec was very different from every other players' due to the 3 indies so I commented on that.
- Do you mind sharing your version of 4 reasons for my post, because I honestly can't see them?

1. You are town, and you think I am independent because I speculated a relatively large number if indies were in the game.
2. You are town, and you think I’m scum, setting up an indie claim later.
3. You are independent, and are trying to work out if my win condition conflicts with yours.
4. You are mafia, and you don’t care if I’m indie or town. You just know that I’m not mafia so you will cast some doubt on my townieness early so that you may use it to your advantage later.

Of course, there’s always this possibility:
5. bessie thinks that Madge might find it amusing to run a game with three mafia and three indies.

So why didn’t anyone else question me on my setup spec? I will need to think about that.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:bessie - quick read-through of her posts suggests to me that she is either tunnelling too much on a kalira/emlightened scum team at this point. I'm confused by her statement that she considered FoSsing kalira for not spotting poisoning in the flavour, when in one of the quoted posts a few lines up kalira explicitly points out the poisoning.
See my analysis above as to what was wrong with kalira’s poisoning remark.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I also disagree that kalira's highlighted post later on is active lurky.
So we disagree.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I haven't reread emlightened yet, but as noted, I didn't feel like her analysing the flavour was a big issue, as bessie seems to be thinking.
Yes, I brought this up, but where exactly did I say this was a big issue?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I also find it odd that she seems to be leaving posts for later, which I'm interpreting as a thing to refer back to as finding scummy - it all adds to the feeling of tunnelling I'm getting, seeing that I don't see anything untoward in the player interactions highlighted. My gut says that this isn't the sort of tunnelling where a town player gets laser focused on a small point and blows it out of all proportion, but more the bright red flashing arrow pointing at "look at this person, aren't they scummy" style, i.e. the getting Town to look at specific players to lynch who are not scum buddies, but I could easily be wrong.
I need to think about this more. I’m wondering why you are jumping on me for tunneling, and why now, only after SDK put me on his scum list. Maybe because this could turn in to an easy wagon for you to join?

Carlington wrote:SDK having posted scum picks like that with no reasoning lights up my scumdar, especially given how little content he has given outside of that. However, I think he has been a little too flippant or casual for me to buy him being scum, perhaps an indie who can win with town or scum.
So SDK’s gameplay thus far lights up you scumdar, but not in a way that makes you think he’s scum? How is his content in this game different from his content when he’s town?

Carlington wrote:bessie seems unafraid to post opinions, and while I am a little concerned at the tunnelling,
You may as well be. You should always be on the lookout for an easy wagon to hitch yourself to.

I'll be at work at deadline, so I'll try to get another post in tonight so that I have time to respond to any comments.

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moody7277
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby moody7277 » Wed Dec 14, 2016 4:39 am UTC

bessie wrote:
bessie wrote:
moody7277 wrote:bessie- scattershot reactions, one pro-Sabrar, one anti-emlightened. insufficient data

And one anti kalira. Why did you leave that out?

moody, did you answer this?


Not yet, but here it is. Mostly because what I saw didn't look like you were being anti-kalira. Funny that you should be taking such pains to make sure I know this. That bit of info goes into the database.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


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