Secret Santa 2016 - D5 - Happy New Year!

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:12 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Sudden realization before hitting submit: I can't see a world where jimbob is Mafia. It would have meant 2 vote-blocking in hands of scum, with at least 1 being able to be used just before LYLO. There is no way a game like that would be ever balanced. This also means that SDK can't be Mafia either and was likely the target of the second kill N2 (of course this could be me overestimating the relevance of my action as usual). Also would mean that Gopher of Pern is scum/Godfather or scum has Ninja.
I'd have thought that adnapemit being the target is just as likely, and potentially shows up in Gopher's results as matt being the targeter, plus is consistent with everything else that I'm aware of, if the kill bypasses roleblockers but not immunity.

There's also as noted by someone else that one of the killers might have simply withheld the kill.

One last thing, why did you block bessie and SDK?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 23, 2016 7:42 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:One last thing, why did you block bessie and SDK?
bessie was too confident in her reads, her focus on my ability to keep things in mind seemed strange and something felt generally off.
SDK is a very good player, if he's scum I found it likely that he would perform the kill as someone who won't be tracked, if he's a Town he's a likely kill-target having lead the lynch on RoadieRich.

I know it's been done before but I think withholding the kill is very rarely a good idea and do not think that this is the case here.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:04 pm UTC

FWIW, SDK has been an SK in the past and withheld the kill in that game (MMM1). I think the situation is different here though.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:11 pm UTC

moody had no reason to lie about the list. So it's only the list itself which could be suspect.

I would vote for adnapemit. We know mpolo has their claimed power, while adnapemit is more vague.

If Carlington is telling the truth, that means neither killing power from night 1 was used night 2. While 3 killing powers (one being town, and conditional) is not unthinkable, the fact that 2 possible anti-town kills weren't used, with my results, is very doubtful. It would possibly mean adnapemit was blocked by matt somehow, and SDK or bessie would be the other killer, SDK being jailed by Sabrar. I do not know what could explain bessie not killing, as mpolo did not have a roleblock, but would explain bessie's lack of results.

If there is a ninja, which I would not be surprised about, and they pulled off the kill...it could be anyone that wasn't roleblocked. If my power did not interact with Carlington's, then he would have received a cop result on moody, which he never mentioned, because he didn't get one.

Bah, everything about Carlington being town just doesn't make sense!

So far, my scum reads are:
Carlington
SDK
adnapemit
bessie

In that order. 2 or possibly 3 of those are scum.

Carlington: Why would you target moody in N2, when you had a townie feeling? Wouldn't it be better to target your scum read (say me?) in case you got targeted? And, if you are telling the truth about your power, can you confirm whether you got a result or not last night?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:35 am UTC

@Gopher - why have you excluded matt as a possible killer? adnapemit claimed to be immune to kills last night, and according to your own results, my roleblock on matt failed, so he could have targeted her.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby SDK » Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:14 am UTC

Sabrar's got it right with Carlington, I think. If he was responsible for moody's death, he could only have been "targeted" by Gopher's mass ability. But if that counts as targeted, Sabrar's jail on me should have taken priority, meaning Gopher wouldn't have been able to watch me. Either Carlington is scum, or a ninja targeted moody too. Probably the former.

But I think this is better.

Vote adnapemit.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:32 am UTC

I just reread moody to try to find the exact wording of his results, and he said that at least one of (SirGabriel, adnapemit, emlightened) is scum. Carlington did ask moody for clarification (was the result “scum“ or “mafia”) but never received an answer. So I wonder if adnapemit is scum but not a member of the (RoadieRich, kalira) mafia team.

Between adnapemit and Carlington, I would rather lynch Carlington because I think he is scum with a kill. There isn’t any solid evidence that adnapemit has a kill.

I don’t believe Carlington’s claim, based on his D3 content.

This before Gopher of Pern's claim:
Carlington wrote:I have nothing to claim from the night.
Like, town!you didn’t think that possibly killing moody by accident was an important thing to mention?

This after Gopher of Pern said he saw Carlington visit moody:
Carlington wrote:I targeted moody last night, so your claim is correct regarding me at least. I can provide more information about this if it's going to be useful, but for the time being I'll say that nothing came of my power use last night, nor the night before.
Except that town!you might have killed moody, and still didn’t feel the need to mention it.

After Gopher of Pern's full claim:
Carlington wrote: However, if someone interacts with me that night then I will kill my target instead.
So you knew when you made the second comment above town!you could have killed moody.

I don't object to lynching adnapemit first, I just think there is more evidence that Carlington is a killer.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby adnapemit » Sat Dec 24, 2016 2:32 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
adnapemit wrote:
Sabrar wrote:If emlightened had turned out to be scum then I would have reconsidered my stance on Gopher of Pern, as starting an alternate wagon on D1 on another scum-buddy is usually not the best idea.
But she wasn't and starting an unsuccessful wagon D1 is a great idea.
Please elaborate as I don't get your point.
(Re-added Sabrar's comment for context) As you said if emlightened had flipped scum then it would make GoP much more townie looking for being against emlightened. But I wouldn't have described the D1 wagon as an alternative, he even unvoted and changed to matt. But since emlightened flipped town then pointing out that you may have reconsidered your stance seemed like an odd thing to say, like you were trying to justify that you find him scummy because you find him scummy.

Carlington wrote:IMO, there is an SK who I am beginning to suspect is the last non-town-aligned kill in the game.
Even if mafia had a extra chance of a kill with Kalira's ability this still seems too unbalanced for there to be only two mafia in a game of fourteen.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Let's assume we trust moody's result. That says we should lynch adnapemit. Hmm... with a mass-watcher out there, if in town's hands, I could see Madge giving an SK and/or Mafia faction kill the Ninja property. So, that sort of fits - ninja!adnapemit kills moody, and then tries to persuade people that moody's result can't be trusted.

I don't see how someone flipping town would aid in convincing people that the results are wrong. Especially since the results were not from moody's but sent by someone else.

Sabrar wrote:Q: Who is scum???
A: one of {adnapemit, mpolo} must be scum. My money is currently on adnapemit, though it would be great if we could clear up the confusion about mpolo's lists.

mpolo doesn't have to be scum for the list to be made of wrong results.

Gopher of Pern's results seem to be pretty accurate. From what everyone said I am pretty sure moody's death appears was caused by Carlington. As his is the only kill and his claim seems to be constucted because he was forced to think of a reason why he was caught visiting moody...

Vote: Carlington
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby SDK » Sat Dec 24, 2016 4:09 am UTC

bessie wrote:I just reread moody to try to find the exact wording of his results, and he said that at least one of (SirGabriel, adnapemit, emlightened) is scum. Carlington did ask moody for clarification (was the result “scum“ or “mafia”) but never received an answer. So I wonder if adnapemit is scum but not a member of the (RoadieRich, kalira) mafia team.

Between adnapemit and Carlington, I would rather lynch Carlington because I think he is scum with a kill. There isn’t any solid evidence that adnapemit has a kill.

I don’t believe Carlington’s claim, based on his D3 content.

This before Gopher of Pern's claim:
Carlington wrote:I have nothing to claim from the night.
Like, town!you didn’t think that possibly killing moody by accident was an important thing to mention?

This after Gopher of Pern said he saw Carlington visit moody:
Carlington wrote:I targeted moody last night, so your claim is correct regarding me at least. I can provide more information about this if it's going to be useful, but for the time being I'll say that nothing came of my power use last night, nor the night before.
Except that town!you might have killed moody, and still didn’t feel the need to mention it.

After Gopher of Pern's full claim:
Carlington wrote: However, if someone interacts with me that night then I will kill my target instead.
So you knew when you made the second comment above town!you could have killed moody.

I don't object to lynching adnapemit first, I just think there is more evidence that Carlington is a killer.

I hadn't put those together yet. Carlington is 100% lying then (instead of just 95%). I guess I don't care either way then. adnapemit isn't a neutral kind of neutral though, otherwise she would have claimed as such. Based on that, and on testing mpolo's ability, I thought Time Panda would be a better choice. Either way. Doesn't matter.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby matt96 » Sat Dec 24, 2016 4:32 am UTC

I would like people to know that I plan on targeting whichever of adnapemit/Carlington isn't lynched today, and that so long as no one else targets them(I asked a question that disproved an assumption I had about how my power worked) I will be able to confirm that any kills that happen tonight are not caused by them.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Carlington » Sat Dec 24, 2016 6:24 am UTC

I'm phone posting, so a few short posts to elucidate a few things will now follow in rapid succession.

Firstly: regarding my lack of claim - it was unclear to me whether I caused moody's death or not, until GoP claimed his power. After that, assuming he was telling the truth, it made most sense that I caused the kill. I suppose there are other possibilities - I didn't receive a result at all, as though I never submitted a target. So I suppose it was also possible that someone else killed moody and the kill was resolved before my cop in the order. Occam's Razor, though, suggests that I was responsible, since any other explanation seems too unlikely. More soon
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Carlington » Sat Dec 24, 2016 6:40 am UTC

Regarding jimbob lying:
I put together my list based on the ossibilities around mpolo's claim:
1. Mpolo lied (implies possible liars {mpolo})
2. Mpolo told the truth, Mpolo's targets were GoP and Bessie
Assume 2.
Neither GoP nor Bessie claimed results
If GoP was the N1 target, then it's already known that the power was redirected onto moody. Bessie must have been the N2 target (supported by GoP result). Bessie didn't claim, thus Bessie lied (by assumption) Possible liars, {mpolo, bessie}
If Bessie was the N1 target, it was redirected to moody. GoP must have been the N2 target - GoP didn't claim and further claimed opposing information, thus GoP lied (by assumption). Possible liars, {mpolo, bessie, GoP}
If all other players are telling the truth, there must have been some other explanation. The only other explanation I can see is this:
bessie was the N1 target, and this was redirected to moody. GoP was the N2 target. The only player targeting GoP to prevent his receipt of the result was jimbob. Jimbob targeted two players, thus he could have been a bus driver and switched GoP and Matt, thus jimbob lied. Possible liars {mpolo, bessie, GoP, jimbob}

This also implicates matt, who can validate or invalidate some of these possibilities.
Bessie has also claimed having a reason to have not gotten a result last night, which happened since my post where I first put this down, which may invalidate a lot of the logic (bessie might have been the target after all, which means it's only bessie possibly lying)
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Carlington » Sat Dec 24, 2016 6:45 am UTC

@Gopher re why i targeted moody, I have elucidated this up thread I'm pretty sure - I basically got greedy and thought I could grab a whole bunch of good info at once if I could confirm moody's alignment - if moody is trusted then he is a safe mouth piece for DJ/mpolo. If I can get a confirmed town result on moody then if he's ever called into doubt I can claim, then we've got a bunch of trusted lists that contain at least one scum each. That could have been a lot of information to work with if we needed to, especially as the game progressed. Knowing what I now know...probably not the wisest play.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Carlington » Sat Dec 24, 2016 6:50 am UTC

Finally: moody wouldn't lie about the list, hence ∃!scum ∈ {mpolo, adnapemit}
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:45 am UTC

As noted before, kalira's ability couldn't have been the cause of either N1 kill. If Carlington didn't use his ability N1 then we have 2 kills unaccounted for. Therefore if Carlington killed moody by accident, we are still missing 2 kills.
I think it is unlikely that both kills were blocked/hit immunity and also unlikely that one of them has Ninja and also targeted moody. Therefore the most likely scenario is that Carlington killed moody.

Vote: Carlington

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Carlington » Sat Dec 24, 2016 8:36 am UTC

Personally, I'd rather lynch the player who is all but confirmed scum over the townie with a kill that misfired.

Vote:adnapemit

Even if she flips town, we then know mpolo is scum.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:45 am UTC

Suppose both kalira's and RoadieRich's abilities have higher priorities than that of their target. If both of them target the same player would s/he die even though s/he tried to perform an action?

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:56 am UTC

Carlington wrote:Even if she flips town, we then know mpolo is scum.
Whilst I don't trust Carlington, this piece of logic makes complete sense to me. I doubt very much that there is an ability that somehow modified the results. It's not impossible, I just doubt it. If adnapemit flips town, we should probably lynch mpolo for giving out fake results, unless adnapemit also flips naive miller, or we think mpolo does not know their results are fake...

@Carlington - SDK has confirmed he sent me turkey that gave me a cop power following consumption, and since I claimed the cop power before SDK confirmed that he gave me a cop power, and the fact that matt confirmed the lack of vote ability, suggests that my two targets were unrelated, i.e. ruling out the bus driver thoery. I think it could still make sense for me to be a team-mate with GoP (I lied about my cop result), but that would still require weirdness amongst adnapemit and mpolo, and potentially others.

Also, Carlington, you should probably not use an ability tonight, since there are people who said they'd target you, unless you are convinced somebody is scum...

I think votals stand at 3 adnapemit and 3 Carlington, if I'm not mistaken, which is L-2. Keep in mind that matt cannot vote today, so if the remaining two non-voters split evenly, somebody's going to need to unvote.

Does anybody have any particular suggestions about my target for tonight? I would target Carlington/adnapemit, but if matt is planning on doing so, and he has what he claims to have, I'm not sure how wise that is. My current thinking is that matt should not target adnapemit if Carlington is lynched, as I'm pretty confident about her scumminess. However, him targeting Carlington if adnapemit is lynched makes sense to me.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Suppose both kalira's and RoadieRich's abilities have higher priorities than that of their target. If both of them target the same player would s/he die even though s/he tried to perform an action?


The target (let's call them Tigger) would live, because the role PM specifies that:

If your target doesn’t target anyone, then they will be killed by your attempts to enact a festive prank upon them.


And by that rule, they did target someone. However, Tigger would not get to use their power, because it would have been roleblocked.

In general, conflict between roles is first resolved by the initiative order and then by looking at the letter of the role PM.

The action resolution order is based on this in case anyone is curious: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... _Framework
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Dec 24, 2016 8:45 pm UTC

Merry Christmas from the East Coast of Australia!


@jimbob

matt would be next scummiest in line, but as they actually targeted adnapemit, I doubt they are a killer.

Nothing anyone has said has changed my mind re: Carlington. They are the likeliest to be scum atm. I can change to adnapemit, but I'd rather lynch Carlington first.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby bessie » Sun Dec 25, 2016 12:24 am UTC

Unofficial votals:

adnapemit (3) : SDK, jimbobmacdoodle, Carlington
Carlington (3) : Gopher of Pern, adnapemit, Sabrar

Not voting (3) : bessie, mpolo, matt96

Madge/dimochka, can you please post the official votals so that we know there are no hidden voting shenanigans? I don’t want to put anyone at L-1 until mpolo has a chance to post (unless it gets close to deadline).

Sabrar wrote:Sudden realization before hitting submit: I can't see a world where jimbob is Mafia. It would have meant 2 vote-blocking in hands of scum, with at least 1 being able to be used just before LYLO. There is no way a game like that would be ever balanced.
While I agree with your reasoning, I don’t like to make assumptions about what the mod did or did not include in a game based on what I personally believe makes a (fair, balanced, fun, non-bastard, etc.) game. We don’t all define these terms in the same way. So I wouldn’t consider “I don’t think the game would be balanced if jimbob was mafia” enough to confirm him as not mafia (I know that this is not your only reason for your read on jimbob).

SDK wrote:Sabrar's got it right with Carlington, I think. If he was responsible for moody's death, he could only have been "targeted" by Gopher's mass ability. But if that counts as targeted, Sabrar's jail on me should have taken priority, meaning Gopher wouldn't have been able to watch me. Either Carlington is scum, or a ninja targeted moody too. Probably the former.
I‘ve been trying to figure out what is going on with the night action order and Gopher of Pern’s super-watcher power and my head hurts. I can’t figure out how he targeted SDK and got a result, but how Sabrar did not see GoP watch Sabrar. Unless GoP’s night action was not a normal watcher action and he saw stuff a normal watcher would not have seen.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Does anybody have any particular suggestions about my target for tonight? I would target Carlington/adnapemit, but if matt is planning on doing so, and he has what he claims to have, I'm not sure how wise that is. My current thinking is that matt should not target adnapemit if Carlington is lynched, as I'm pretty confident about her scumminess. However, him targeting Carlington if adnapemit is lynched makes sense to me.
Why don’t you think matt should target adnapemit? He implied he could prevent her from killing.

Gopher of Pern wrote:matt would be next scummiest in line, but as they actually targeted adnapemit, I doubt they are a killer.
adnapemit claimed she was immune to night actions last night.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Madge » Sun Dec 25, 2016 12:43 am UTC

Merry Christmas from the West Coast of Australia!

Votals:

Carlington (3) - GoP, adnapemit, Sabrar
adnapemit (3) - SDK, jimbob, carlington

5 to hammer.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby SDK » Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:33 am UTC

Gopher did not watch me last night. He watched me Night 1. No targeting contradiction there.

Unvote, Vote Carlington.

I'll happily switch back if need be. Just want to avoid the tie.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby bessie » Sun Dec 25, 2016 4:39 am UTC

Why put us at L-1 SDK? Scum!Carlington (or scum!jimbobmacdoodle or scum!mpolo of scum!bessie) can hammer and deprive us of a day of discussion and a chance to coordinate night actions. Not that we will probably have much more discussion, but it would be nice if mpolo would at least confirm the order of his night actions. And Carlington is lynched if the votals are tied anyway.

jimbob, you can target me if you want to confirm I don't kill anyone.

It’s not midnight yet but in case I don’t get an opportunity, Mele Kalikemaka everyone!

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:37 am UTC

Unvote

to prevent early hammer.

bessie wrote:While I agree with your reasoning, I don’t like to make assumptions about what the mod did or did not include in a game based on what I personally believe makes a (fair, balanced, fun, non-bastard, etc.) game.
You're totally right, I've promised myself multiple times not to try and guess mod's intentions anymore and am still doing it. So I'm going to change that from "I can't see a world where" to "I don't want to live in a world where", not that it makes a difference.

bessie wrote:I‘ve been trying to figure out what is going on with the night action order and Gopher of Pern’s super-watcher power and my head hurts. I can’t figure out how he targeted SDK and got a result, but how Sabrar did not see GoP watch Sabrar.
Don't know how I missed this earlier. Most probable explanation is that GoP-s super-Watcher didn't target and that reinforces the theory that Carlington is lying.

I don't think we should coordinate night-actions as scum would be able to use that info more effectively in my opinion.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Dec 25, 2016 8:55 pm UTC

Merry Christmas from the UK!

My theory is that although SDK was immune to night actions last night, is that Gopher still saw Sabrar visit him, because it was Sabrar doing the work. This essentially made Gopher a mass-tracker rather than a mass-watcher last night, so it may depend partly on how the ability is phrased and what Madge actually expected from the role. I know that when I was thinking about it, it made perfect sense for Gopher to see Sabrar visit SDK, but I understand why people would expect it to not have worked...
Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:I‘ve been trying to figure out what is going on with the night action order and Gopher of Pern’s super-watcher power and my head hurts. I can’t figure out how he targeted SDK and got a result, but how Sabrar did not see GoP watch Sabrar.
Don't know how I missed this earlier. Most probable explanation is that GoP-s super-Watcher didn't target and that reinforces the theory that Carlington is lying.
However, this is also really interesting. If GoP counted as targeting Carlington, he should also have targeted Sabrar. Ergo, Sabrar is lying or Carlington is lying, or somebody else killed moody (I think there's a good chance that somebody has Ninja still).

bessie wrote:Why don’t you think matt should target adnapemit? He implied he could prevent her from killing.
I'm pretty sure Matt didn't imply that he could prevent the killing, but rather that he could tell whether his target killed or not. If I roleblock adnapemit, I prevent a kill if she has a blockable one (and assuming she doesn't use it on me and get to ignore my roleblock as happened in Trial of the Pariahs). The plus side for matt targeting is that we get concrete evidence about ability usage, but the downside is that he has to survive, which is not guaranteed. I'm actually leaning in favour of matt doing the targeting after all, as I think there are likely better kill targets for scum out there, especially as I'm still suspicious of matt somehow having bypassed my roleblock. I won't be making any final announcement as to my target before tonight, in case somebody is able to mess with my ability. However, suggestions are still welcome. My ability should be confirmable by doing a vote experiment like today.

In fact, to speed things up tomorrow, can I request everybody vote the person above them on the list in their first post after D4 begins, or announce that they are vote-blocked, please? If everybody successfully votes, either I was blocked or the player I targeted died at night.

I'm going to be in bed at the time of deadline, and with votals looking close, I'd rather be awake to change my vote or unvote if needed. If Madge is willing, how would people feel about a 4-5 hour extension?

Short extension request, if others are agreeable.

More attempts at logic:
Spoiler:
Assuming 1 SK, 1 Mafia, no withheld kills, no lying townies, and all players with immunity to night kill have claimed:

1) If Gopher is Town, and scum does not have ninja, possible killers are two of: Carlington, matt (adnapemit was immune), SDK (jailed by Sabrar), adnapemit (if matt lied about his role and blocked adnapemit, implying matt is the other killer).
2) If Gopher is scum, and scum does not have ninja, Gopher probably didn't lie about any targets other than his own, since I think everybody has confirmed the results: Gopher, plus one of the previous mentioned four, except adnapemit.
3) If scum have ninja and Gopher is Town: any one player, plus one of the people mentioned in 1).
4) If scum have ninja and Gopher is Scum: any one player, plus Gopher.

Therefore, there must be at least one scum between {Gopher, Carlington, matt, SDK, adnapemit}.

Assuming DJ's ability produces reliable results, then adnapemit must be scum, or DJ is lying. Therefore at least one of {mpolo, adnapemit} is scum.

Scum!adnapemit doesn't benefit from killing moody, so more likely is other player. Too many possibilities to logic it out.
Not much new information, just rehashed to help with my thoughts further. Summary is, assuming two killers (SK and lone mafia), all players with NK immunity have claimed, nobody withheld claims and scum!Gopher only lied about his own actions (none of this is guaranteed!), at least one of {Gopher, Carlington, matt, SDK, adnapemit are scum}. Also, at least one of {adnapemit, DJ/mpolo} is scum. If adnapemit is scum and does not have ninja, then matt is scum.

My preferred lynch is adnapemit. If she flips town, we lynch mpolo. If she flips scum and does not have ninja, we lynch matt. Lynching Carlington does not even make certain that Gopher is lying because of the vagaries of their ability interactions, if Carlington flips town. I'm not against lynching Carlington, but I think we learn far more from lynching adnapemit. An adnapemit/Carlington scum pair (not co-aligned) is certainly a possibility.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 25, 2016 9:16 pm UTC

@jimbobmacdoodle: with no indie flips/claims so far, have you considered a 9-4-1 setup? I feel that could be considered balanced, given last year had also the same distribution. In that case getting rid of SK is highly preferred and precisely because of interactions I would assume Carlington has higher probability of being SK than adnapemit.

I should be awake right before original deadline and able to phone-vote but I'm fine with short extension as well.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:43 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@jimbobmacdoodle: with no indie flips/claims so far, have you considered a 9-4-1 setup? I feel that could be considered balanced, given last year had also the same distribution.
Good point, I didn't consider that, because I think I previously had discarded it as unlikely. However, off the top of my head, I cannot think why. Making the same assumptions as before, I don't think there is any difference in my logic from before, with the addition that the second Mafia could be pretty much anybody from a purely logical train of thought, I think. I don't have time now to do any more analysis today though.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:50 pm UTC

I'd like to clarify, I was actually a tracker, not a watcher. So I determine the target of the person I targeted. So, in N1, I targeted SDK, and found they targeted moody. N2, it doesn't specifically say that I target everyone, just that I receive a tracker result on everyone.

Sorry for using the incorrect terminology.

Until mpolo posts to clarify their targets, I will leave my vote as is.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 25, 2016 11:33 pm UTC

Going to bed late means I might not be here before deadline.

Vote: Carlington

Gopher of Pern being tracker explains why he could have seen me targeting SDK, however me not having seen him in return means his power did not target and so would not have interfered with Carlington.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Madge » Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:27 am UTC

Regarding the extension request: I'm not sure I can really provide an extension today. If more people want one I will, but it'd more likely be a 15 hour extension. Given that there's a pretty clear voting consensus, the current deadline stands.

Votals:

Carlington (4) - GoP, adnapemit, SDK, Sabrar
adnapemit (2) - jimbob, carlington

5 to hammer.

Day 3 ends in 5 hours
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby bessie » Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:35 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'd like to clarify, I was actually a tracker, not a watcher. So I determine the target of the person I targeted.
Ok, some things that bothered me about the order of the night actions works out now. Sabrar, you probably didn’t see Gopher of Pern track you because your watcher action went before his tracker action.

SDK wrote:Gopher did not watch me last night.
How did you know this?

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby matt96 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:41 am UTC

GoP tracking rather than watching would also make it possible that adnapemit's claimed 1 shot night action immunity would have let her night kill without being tracked/blocked/etc. even if it required not using her primary powrt as the scum night kill would be a factional and not role based ability. I don't think this matters as much given Carlington already admitted to having killed Moody. Last thing that needs mentioning is a reminder to please not target adnapemit tonight, as my power working the way I intend it is dependent on no one else targeting her.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 26, 2016 5:36 am UTC

bessie wrote:Sabrar, you probably didn’t see Gopher of Pern track you because your watcher action went before his tracker action.
Nope, according to my role pm my self-Watch should have a very low priority, happening at the end of the night.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby adnapemit » Mon Dec 26, 2016 5:42 am UTC

Hope everyone had a nice Christmas.


jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Summary is, assuming two killers (SK and lone mafia), all players with NK immunity have claimed, nobody withheld claims and scum!Gopher only lied about his own actions (none of this is guaranteed!), at least one of {Gopher, Carlington, matt, SDK, adnapemit are scum}. Also, at least one of {adnapemit, DJ/mpolo} is scum. If adnapemit is scum and does not have ninja, then matt is scum.

I was trying to follow but I don't see how that makes matt scum as a certainty. Even with all the assumptions in your post(and there are quite a few that could easily be wrong), how does me being scum without a ninja kill make matt scum if he targeted me. He would have to be a different scum to me and this logic in your post was limited to one SK and one lone mafia so there would be no other who performed the kill on moody. Somebody else could have a ninja kill or somebody could have gone untracked.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Madge » Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:00 am UTC

The meal was huge, as was to be expected; everyone ate their fill, and felt about ready to explode. The desserts - chocolate cake and icecream for the kids, and for the adults, Uncle Jimmo’s speciality - a christmas cake that had been soaked in brandy for a few days and then covered in ice-cream and chucked in the freezer.

The heat was strong, and the shade of the verandah did little to abate it. Everyone’s was stomach felt full to bursting as Lachlan and Matilda - two of the teenage kids - started clearing the plates and loading the dishwasher.

Everyone ended up lolling about the place: on the couches, cushions on the floor, wherever they could lie and dozed for a few hours.

With all the adults virtually comatose after lunch, the kids whispered amongst themselves and headed outside to play with their toys - sure, it was hot, but they had some zooper doopers and they could always head in the pool if it came to that.

As they filed out, nobody noticed that Carl - one of the many cousins - had dozed off, and apparently, nobody was fond enough of him to wake him and find out if he wanted to join in…


Carlington has been lynched. Role reveal in the morning.

Final Votals:

Carlington (4) - GoP, adnapemit, SDK, Sabrar
adnapemit (2) - jimbob, carlington


It is now night. As we haven’t received all night actions, there will be a (max) 24 hour grace period to submit night actions - you may also change your actions during this time.

Night will end early if all actions have been received.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Madge » Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:04 am UTC

It is now dawn. New night actions will not be accepted. Night results are being sent out now, and day start will happen momentarily.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D4 - HOWZAT?!

Postby Madge » Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:24 am UTC

The kids grabbed the wheelie bin, the cricket bat and a couple of tennis balls, and started playing cricket. Lachlan and Matilda - as the parental proxies - supervised the action, with Matilda acting as umpire and Lachlan manning the esky as he drank a can of V. It was boys vs girls, but Matilda managed to remain mostly impartial.

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They chatted amongst themselves as the cycle of ball-throwing, hitting, catching continued. Considering Carl was the only one who wasn’t there, rumours began to fly about him; apparently, he was one of the kids who had been swapping present labels so he would have more toys! Well, no wonder nobody wanted to wake him for cricket.

It was Mason’s turn to come up to the stumps - he was only six, so the bat was about as tall as he was! Sienna was bowling, and threw him a nice, easy underarm. Mason whacked it with all his might!
HOWZAT!! The little tennis ball went clear over the fence, into the neighbour’s back yard.

“Six and out!” Declared Matilda. “Sienna, you’re up!”

Sienna approached the ‘crease’ and held the bat at the ready. She was ten, so she was going to be able to put some real power and accuracy into this one - she would be able to score six without hitting it over the fence and increasing their neighbour’s increasingly large store of tennis balls.

Connor grabbed a new tennis ball, and bowled - this throw was a hard one with a little bit of a curve to it. Sienna was going to have to earn those points!

And earn them she did! She hit the ball with all her might - directly into the corner of the yard where Matty was fielding. Matty was an eight year old boy who chose this corner because it so rarely had balls hit into it. But this ball came right for him!

He knew he had to catch it, to get Sienna out for a golden duck, but the ball was going so very, very fast. Why, if someone got hit by it, they’d be very badly hurt! He steeled himself, and ran for the ball - if anyone was going to be hurt, it was HIM, damnit! Naturally, it banged him square in the forehead. Fortunately, it was a tennis ball rather than a regulation cricket ball, or things would have been a lot worse!

Regardless, Matilda and Lachlan ran to Matty to see how he was going. Matty had tears in his eyes from the throbbing pain in his forehead, but was managing to keep his composure. Lachlan had grabbed some ice from the esky, and helped Matty get up, and escorted him to the shade where he could ice his injury. He wouldn’t be able to keep playing cricket, but he would be alright in a few hours.


Carlington was lynched yesterday. He was John Maclane, aligned with the mafia.

Matt96 was killed in the night. He was The Sandperson, independantly aligned.

All members of the mafia have been eliminated!



Role PMs:

Spoiler:
Carlington's Role PM wrote:Role Name - John McClane (Die Hard)

Role Description -
An NYPD detective who was on his way to Los Angeles to reconcile with his estranged wife, who happened to find that the cheapest series of available flights to get to LA in time for the Nakatomi Corporation's Christmas Eve party involved flying most of the way around the world. The connecting flight out of Australia ended up delayed less than the flight in, where he ended up caught up in this murderous party.

Once per night, you can target someone alive or who died the previous night whose corpse you want to drop onto a police car for further investigation of what was going on before they died. This information will be secretly relayed back to you by a police contact. Because corpses are by definition dead, this will not work on anyone who survives the night.


Role Mechanics -
You can chose one other player who died the previous night or can potentially be night killed to retroactively Watch or Track (randomly chosen) from the night they were killed.

Win condition - RoadieRich, Kalira and Carlington are members of the mafia. You win when you control the vote, or when this is unavoidable.

Faction abilities -
As mafia, you have the following abilities:
  • You may chat at any time via PM, provided all members of the mafia and both mods are included in the PMs
  • You have access to a factional night kill. You need to nominate someone to do the kill each night, and they do not get to use their night action.
  • Here are three role concepts that do not exist in this game should you need them: Hipster, Bogan, Dropbear
  • The town win condition is “You win if all threats to the town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is alive.”


Twist!!!!!! information not known to the player: He is actually Dr. Malcolm Crowe (The Sixth Sense), not John McClane. The police don't investigate anything for him, Cole Sear (Haley Joel Osment's character) simply asks the ghosts. (this has no game consequences)

Matt's role wrote:Name: The Sandperson

Flavour:
In the North, at Christmas time, people create Snowpeople. Unfortunately, there is very little snow in Australia, even in the wintertime, so it seems a Sandperson will have to do. And, like any other being infused with the magic of Christmas, you don't want to see your Maker be destroyed.

[[REDACTED]] is your Maker! Note that a side effect of the magic that brought you to life means that your Maker has no idea who you are.


Abilities: You can redirect a player's night action to a random person that targeted the player, by throwing sand in their eyes. Otherwise, you can choose to hide, in which case that night you are invisible and immune to all actions by all players.

Win condition: You win if your Maker is alive at the end, even if the Maker doesn't win themselves. You obviously don’t need to survive to the end yourself in order to win.


7 players are alive. 4 to lynch.

Day 4 ends in just over 5 days.
Last edited by Madge on Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:37 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D4 - HOWZAT?!

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:32 am UTC

Shouldn't that be 7 players alive?

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D4 - HOWZAT?!

Postby Madge » Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:37 am UTC

Apparently counting is not my strong suit.

Yes, the following seven players are alive:
Gopher of Pern
Sabrar
jimbobmacdoodle
mpolo
adnapemit
SDK
bessie
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