Secret Santa 2016 - D5 - Happy New Year!

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bessie
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby bessie » Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:49 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern, you can reveal your watcher result on me, if you have one.

adnapemit, I didn’t receive anything N1. I don’t disbelieve that you sent it, and I don’t believe that you were redirected, since no one claimed receiving anything.


Vote: SDK


I don’t like changing my avatar mid game, but since adnapemit changed hers, I am jumping on that bandwagon!

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:05 pm UTC

Ok, here are my results from last night:

jimbo targeted myself and matt.

Sabrar targeted SDK.

Carlington targeted moody.

DJ targeted bessie.

Matt targeted adnapemit

That was all the targeting going on.

Normally I am just a watcher, but I had a one shot with a chance to see everyone, so I thought I'd try it night 2. It also had a chance to fail spectacularly, roleblocking everyone. However, using the oneshot basically renders me powerless for the rest of the game.

N1 I saw SDK visit jimbob.

In response to questions:

I would presume that my results would be after redirection, according to the answer to my question at the beginning of day 2. I am also assuming that if someone is roleblocked, I do not see them visit, but I could be wrong. It might also depend. Did you roleblock matt last night? Because they did target someone. Which would render my next sentence moot.

Now, my thinking is that, if there is an SK, we had one kill blocked last night, whether by roleblock or doctor. It is doubtful that it is doctor, as no one was targeted by more than one person (barring ninja-type powers). However, SDK, bessie or adnapemit could all have been roleblocked. My money is on adnapemit, with bessie being my second choice.

Unvote

Vote: Carlington


I am almost certain they killed moody.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:42 pm UTC

Can confirm that I targeted SDK. More later, after everyone had the chance to confirm/contest/claim.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Madge » Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:54 pm UTC

Votals:

Carlington (2) - Adnapemit, GoP
GoP (1) - Sabrar
DJ (1) - Carlington
adnapemit (1) - SDK
SDK (1) - bessie

Day 3 ends in 4 days, 7 hours
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby bessie » Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:42 am UTC

I didn’t target anyone last night.

Gopher of Pern wrote:However, SDK, bessie or adnapemit could all have been roleblocked.

Or had some sort of immunity, which adnapemit already claimed.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Madge » Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:58 am UTC

Mpolo has replaced DJ effective immediately
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby mpolo » Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:17 am UTC

I will try to read a little bit today, but I am travelling tomorrow, so part of the day is going to be packing and such. I should get some time on the 24th, and after that be more or less "regular".
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:15 am UTC

bessie wrote:I didn’t target anyone last night.

Gopher of Pern wrote:However, SDK, bessie or adnapemit could all have been roleblocked.

Or had some sort of immunity, which adnapemit already claimed.


If we are talking about who could have been prevented from killing, how would them having immunity have any bearing on it?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:43 am UTC

Request mod-prod on matt96.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby adnapemit » Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:09 am UTC

for now...
Unvote
Proper post in a few hours.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby adnapemit » Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:31 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:If emlightened had turned out to be scum then I would have reconsidered my stance on Gopher of Pern, as starting an alternate wagon on D1 on another scum-buddy is usually not the best idea.
But she wasn't and starting an unsuccessful wagon D1 is a great idea.
Sabrar wrote:EBWOP: why did scum kill moody? that leaves adnapemit as clear lynch-target (though she would have been probably the next one anyway). Unless we really have SK and scum's kill was blocked?
I already reacted to this. But the more I think about it the more Sabrar's scenario pings me. Suggesting it was a SK kill instead of any other reason like strategy or reads or the risk moody might have a threatening power.

GoP claims and what they could mean:
Carlington targeted moody(although the only one mentioned, if GoP is scum then he could have targeted moody or removed the result of whoever else did target moody)
jimbob targeted GoP and matt( since both are alive and GoP received results, jimbob's ability wasn't a kill or a roleblock)
Sabrar targeted SDK(If SDK is after a turkey then maybe Sabrar could be a roleblocker if no turkey turns up, this combined with jimbob getting a turkey would make sense with GoP's N1 result.)
DJ targeted bessie(insufficient information on what occurred from this)
Matt targeted adnapemit(I didn't receive anything, would require matt to claim if it was successful)

Gopher of Pern wrote:
bessie wrote:I didn’t target anyone last night.

Gopher of Pern wrote:However, SDK, bessie or adnapemit could all have been roleblocked.

Or had some sort of immunity, which adnapemit already claimed.


If we are talking about who could have been prevented from killing, how would them having immunity have any bearing on it?

Depends if matt's actions were actually successful or not. It's possible I could have been shown as targeted even though it had no effect. If they were then it is also possible that my actions failed. Since bessie claim not to have targeted anyone it doesn't clear up what exactly your results are showing.

Town
adnapemit
SDK
jimbobmacdoodle
bessie
Djehutynakht/mpolo
Sabrar
matt96
Gopher of Pern
Carlington
Scum

Gopher of Pern results make it pretty simple, either GoP is scum or Carlington is scum. GoP seem to be telling the truth it is just what they could be not saying that worries me. I would like to hear more from Carlington about his power but at the moment he is sitting slightly likely to be scum because he visited moody and even admitted it.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby SDK » Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:22 pm UTC

Quickly here to confirm that I did target jimbobmacdoodle Night 1. I am The Turkey Barbecuer, able to give cocaine-laced turkey to someone, which they then have the option of consuming to gain a cop shot.

I'll get into the supposed importance of my Night 2 action later since it doesn't look like it'll matter today. It's nothing stupid like turkey being part of my wincon or something, just trying to make the best choices and figure out what's going on this game.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby bessie » Thu Dec 22, 2016 4:54 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:If we are talking about who could have been prevented from killing, how would them having immunity have any bearing on it?

I thought we were talking about how a second kill may have not happened. You are speculating that SDK, bessie, or adnapemit may have attempted a kill and was blocked. I am speculating that you saw someone attempt a kill, and the target has immunity. So one of the following:

Sabrar attempted to kill SDK
DJ attempted to kill bessie
matt attempted to kill adnapemit

It probably wasn’t the first one, because SDK claimed a different power.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 22, 2016 5:15 pm UTC

adnapemit wrote:But she wasn't and starting an unsuccessful wagon D1 is a great idea.
Please elaborate as I don't get your point.

adnapemit wrote:Gopher of Pern results make it pretty simple, either GoP is scum or Carlington is scum.
Or scum has Ninja.

Proper post tomorrow when I should have ample time.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby SDK » Thu Dec 22, 2016 5:27 pm UTC

Seems unlikely, bessie. No one was targeted by multiple people last Night, so it can't have been a doctor save. As you said, I am not immune to the kill, and matt killing adnapemit would make no sense at all since she's confirmed scum (unless matt either wasn't paying attention or he was 100% convinced that emlightened was scum). That pretty much just leaves you. If you are immune, don't claim it (we've already got two lynches lined up), but the second kill being blocked some other way, or not existing at all, is probably more likely.

However! We've got a lot of investigative roles this game. If I were modding, the scum would have some kind of defence against that, like a godfather and/or a ninja ability tacked onto whatever else they got at random.

We've still got 9 alive, right? If we've got 2 mafia left, that means we lose on the third mislynch. Based on that, I think I'm okay with lining up Carlington and adnapemit for the next two days. Even if Gopher and [whoever sent moody false information] are lying, we should still be good. Depends on whether we've got a serial killer or not.

Actually, based on that, I'd like whoever sent moody that info to claim. No need to spell out your role, just say it was you so we can judge that information accurately. adnapemit is a reasonably strong town read for me otherwise, so it would be good to get that confirmation (and be able to hold you accountable if things go further south).
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby matt96 » Thu Dec 22, 2016 5:41 pm UTC

Just needed to check some stuff with the mods before posting, but given that Jimbob targeted me last night and was asking everyone to vote, he probably has something to do with me not being allowed to vote today, not as in 0 weight given to the vote, but as in attempting to vote will result in mod kill. Regarding night actions, I did target adnapemit last night, which taking GoP's results as true wouldn't have done anything (unless I'm misunderstanding my power) and bessie the night before, which I'm not sure did anything either. I'd rather not claim my exact power yet, but how I know it wouldn't have done anything will make sense why when I do claim.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby SDK » Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:49 pm UTC

adnapemit wrote:So you know when you are certain someone is going to flip scum and you know it's really unlikely that anything else would happen .... but then they flip town. I hate that. Did anyone receive results last night in the same form as moody's?

Did anybody answer this?

Carlington, please claim your role.

I thought I'd have more time today, but I'm outta here for Christmas. I'll be phone posting going forward, but I'll try to stay as involved as I can.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:55 pm UTC

Questions that will hopefully be answered by the time I sit down tomorrow to write my wall-of-text.

Gopher of Pern: why did you not use your full-watch ability N1 when you could have the most info?

jimbobmacdoodle
- can you confirm that your ability makes people voteless?
- who did you target N1 with that ability and why?
- why did you target matt N2?

mpolo: please share anything you're comfortable with as soon as possible

Carlington: you're a very possible lynch-candidate today, please full-claim

SDK: to me your turkey-related comment is very important today, please answer that question.

bessie: did you target anyone N1?

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - A Very Aussie Christmas

Postby matt96 » Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:19 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I targeted kalira last night, but unless there's some hidden aspect to my role, I did not kill her. I am also fairly confident that I wasn't redirected, because I believe my action would have had public confirmation (will ask the mods),

From day 2, since Sabrar asked.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:25 pm UTC

Thanks, didn't remember it. Also because I keep forgetting it:

Unvote

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:20 am UTC

I was working on a large post to detail bits and pieces and to look at the claims and possibilities, and got distracted by family stuff. I'll come back to it tomorrow.

In the meantime, I did target matt last night. He was the last of the players from my D1 scummy list (which hadn't really changed on D2), apart from Gopher, who I decided to cop. In addition, the vote-block isn't the only effect. I also roleblock the target, so matt should have been blocked last night. I hoped that matt might be a killer (Mafia or SK) and that I would block him, hence my choice of target. An important note is that since my action appears to be confirmed by matt, and matt's action seems to have turned up in Gopher's results, roleblocking does not appear to prevent the action from being seen. I targeted kalira N1 for similar reasons to matt last night.

Also one other thing, my cop action was explicitly stated to be sane by the mods in bold text, so at least from that point of view, the result can be trusted (although Gopher could still be a godfather, or something else could have messed up my action, though the latter at least seems unlikely). I forgot that when I was posting my earlier comments about it.

@SDK, why did you apparently not use your action last night?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:25 am UTC

EBWOP: Madge got back to me just as I posted that last post, and said that a standard watcher would not have seen my target if I blocked someone. So something really weird is going on. I can't believe that my action failed and that matt guessed that I vote-blocked him from me merely asking people to vote, and I know I wasn't roleblocked, since I got the cop result.

@Matt - do you have any indication as to why my roleblock might have failed and/or Gopher saw you visiting him?
@Gopher - do you have any indication as to why you might have seen matt even though I tried to roleblock him?

I am really confused about what's going on.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby matt96 » Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:42 am UTC

I actually know this one from a question I asked in a PM. The way night actions mechanically work is that there is an ordered list which determines when actions occur, simplifying dealing with all the role blocks and redirects. My action must have simply had higher priority.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:56 am UTC

Higher priority than a roleblock? Typically, they are one of the highest. Unless your action itself was a roleblock.

Sabrar, I did not use it night 1, because the chances of it working were low. They increased after every night.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Carlington » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:43 am UTC

A couple of people have requested it now and it's lining up like I'll be the lynch candidate for today, so I'll claim.

I am a cop of sorts. I can target a player each night, and I'll receive their alignment. However, if someone interacts with me that night then I will kill my target instead. N1 I didn't want to risk it, N2 after two scum died I felt more confident. (full of regret now).
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Madge » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:10 am UTC

Votals:

Carlington (1) - GoP
DJ (1) - Carlington
adnapemit (1) - SDK
SDK (1) - bessie

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby bessie » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:20 am UTC

Unvote

I did not target anyone N1 or N2. I did not receive any gifts or information or anything else N1 or N2.

Sabrar wrote:Thanks, didn't remember it.
Hmm... :D

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:EBWOP: Madge got back to me just as I posted that last post, and said that a standard watcher would not have seen my target if I blocked someone. So something really weird is going on. I can't believe that my action failed and that matt guessed that I vote-blocked him from me merely asking people to vote, and I know I wasn't roleblocked, since I got the cop result.
Perhaps Gopher is not a standard watcher? A standard watcher doesn’t get a result on everyone.

Carlington wrote:I am a cop of sorts. I can target a player each night, and I'll receive their alignment. However, if someone interacts with me that night then I will kill my target instead. N1 I didn't want to risk it, N2 after two scum died I felt more confident. (full of regret now).
Can you explain why having two scum dead made town!you believe this was a good idea? Did you believe moody was scum?

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby SDK » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:33 am UTC

Got some info from Madge, so I guess I don't mind claiming further. I don't only give cop-shots, I'm a jack of all trades or sorts, able to give different types of turkey that do different things. I tried to give Gopher poisoned turkey last night. He has the option of consuming it or not, so when jimbob called him town, I wanted him to hold off eating it (at least until we fleshed that out). Turns out it doesn't matter since I was blocked (this was not confirmed, but is my assumption) and lost my poisoned meat anyway. I didn't want to talk about the rest so people trust my meat (and eat the bad meat if I want them to), but all my remaining meat is good for you, so the point is now moot.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby SDK » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:36 am UTC

Carlington, yours was the only kill last night. What happened to the other kill(s) in your opinion? Is there a serial killer in this game?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Carlington » Fri Dec 23, 2016 7:49 am UTC

bessie wrote:
Carlington wrote:I am a cop of sorts. I can target a player each night, and I'll receive their alignment. However, if someone interacts with me that night then I will kill my target instead. N1 I didn't want to risk it, N2 after two scum died I felt more confident. (full of regret now).
Can you explain why having two scum dead made town!you believe this was a good idea? Did you believe moody was scum?

The last time I gave a read on moody, before he died, I had him as town. However, I saw potential in the fact that he had a result on multiple people.
As I understood it, somebody had the power to send somebody else a list of three players, at least one if whom was scum. This was based on moody's claim not to have gained the result through his own power use. This, in combination with 'the little birdie' telling him the result wasn't meant for him, led me to believe the sender was redirected (we have seen, at least, a bus driver role flip and a possible redirector). Finally, no role that sends cop results like those moody received has yet flipped (I don't think) - thus, they're still alive. Now, if we come to trust moody and he is widely seen as town (true, imo) then the sender is likely to send more results to moody - he's a useful and trustworthy mouthpiece. Even better, if I can confirm moody's alignement with a cop result, I can claim this later if moody makes further claims that are called into question. That would have been immensely helpful. That was my logic in targeting moody.

SDK wrote:Carlington, yours was the only kill last night. What happened to the other kill(s) in your opinion? Is there a serial killer in this game?
IMO, there is an SK who I am beginning to suspect is the last non-town-aligned kill in the game. Many other things could have happened to the other kill(s) last night - as has been pointed out, they could have been blocked or targeted at someone with immunity. I personally believe that the SK simply withheld last night - Mafia losing so many so early is frightening for an SK as well, because if the game continues after enough Mafia have died then SK is directly in the spotlight and on their own against all of town.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby mpolo » Fri Dec 23, 2016 7:56 am UTC

I have no "extra" information. I imagine that it is already clear that the people I target receive certain information (a list of three names, of which they know that at least one of the three is scum). Bessie and Gopher of Pern received this information on N1 and N2. I have to go for my flight. Realistically it will be some time on the 24th or 25th before I get back to this.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:21 am UTC

mpolo wrote:Bessie and Gopher of Pern received this information on N1 and N2.

@Gopher of Pern: did you receive such a list?

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Carlington » Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:22 am UTC

mpolo, if you see this, in which order were those players your targets?

Refardless of ordering, there's a liar in {jimbob, mpolo, GoP, bessie}, unless I'm very much mistaken.

Ninja'd by Sabrar: @GoP, follow-up question. If so, why not claim?
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:58 am UTC

I did not receive anything last night. Unless mpolo is misinterpreting his mail, as he targeted bessie last night, and possibly targeted me N1, but was redirected onto moody?

In which case, bessie should have received the information last night.

As no one has claimed Vig, I am assuming that the second kill N1 was due to an SK.

Carlington's claim is almost plausible, if me watching everyone meant I was technically targeting everyone, it would have triggered his kill.

But then, he is sorta a weird vig / cop hybrid. If you are targeting the scummiest person you know, it shouldn't matter if you get targeted, as you will kill them, which, hey bonus if they are scum. So thinking it through, I don't believe Carlingtons claim at all.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:36 am UTC

My head hurts. Rambling wall of text warning. I'll try to post a summary at the end.
Carlington wrote:Refardless of ordering, there's a liar in {jimbob, mpolo, GoP, bessie}, unless I'm very much mistaken.
I might have missed something here, but why am I on that list? Are you referring to my cop result?

I'm inclined to believe Gopher's night results, in that everyone who he said targeted someone probably did target that person. However, it is possible he omitted some people to try to mislead us. Similarly, anybody with a Ninja-like role will clearly not show up in the results. The latter would only make sense if he had a Godfather role, or if I am an ally with him.

Did mpolo get his notes the wrong way around, or did he actually target the people the way round he said? The latter would be possible if Gopher is scum, and lied about the target to cause further confusion. However, he presumably didn't know what sort of action mpolo had so this seems like a bit of a risk. Mpolo could be lying about his targets, in which case he would have to be scum. Mpolo could have been redirected N2, but in that case, Gopher is scum presumably because he didn't see a redirection, unless somebody used a general redirection power (FTR - I have a mass-redirection one-off ability, instead of my normal action, but see zero reason to ever use it). The last point seems unlikely, since I received a cop result on my planned target. Bessie could be lying about not receiving anything last night, or simply be unable to do so for whatever reason, potentially blocking the user like emlightened can. Regardless, the N1 results could easily have been redirected via e.g. SirG's or kalira's redirection.

@bessie, care to comment on why you didn't receive mpolo's results?

I'd ask why DJ targeted Gopher N2, but I don't think there's anything we can get from there.

What does scum consist of? I'm inclined to think that scum started as either 3 Mafia and 1 SK or 4 Mafia, so we either have 1 Mafia, and 1 SK (effectively 2 SKs), or we have 2 Mafia left. If we have only 2 Mafia left, then something needs to explain the N1 death of kalira. What could do? So far we have claimed or flipped, kalira's redirection/kill ability, and Carlington's cop/kill ability. I'd have expected a town-aligned player who might have killed kalira to have claimed (or to at least have caused her death via e.g. redirection) by now, so I'm going to assume that there isn't such a thing. Mafia might have had an additional kill for some reason N1, but that doesn't feel right to me particularly (if it's not a one-off, it feels a bit broken, and if it is, I'd have thought they'd have waited a couple of days to use it). Could a redirection have caused kalira's death? Maybe, but if so, it still doesn't explain who killed SirGabriel then. For me, the balance of probabilities comes down to there being an SK and a lone-Mafia member left alive.

@Everyone, did anybody target Carlington N1 with anything other than a roleblock (I assume a roleblock trumps Carlington's claimed ability, but after my apparent failure to block matt, I'm not so sure)? Also, last chance for anybody to have claimed that they could have killed kalira or caused her death N1.

Assuming that my 1 SK, 1 Mafia scenario holds, then no scum member has any living team-mates remaining, that means that two players are not going to have co-ordinated to have lied about results. Who killed moody then? Clearly, any alignment!Carlington could have done via his ability. For this to be the case, Gopher's ability would have had to have "interacted" with Carlington, or Gopher is lying, or somebody else targeted Carlington with an invisible action. I think the last is unlikely, but is possible, I guess. Gopher wouldn't have any particular reason to lie at the time he posted, regarding somebody targeting Carlington, if he is scum and alone, from what I can tell (Gopher + somebody else is still possible, but see above), since Carlington hadn't stated anything about his ability at that point.

Could somebody else have killed moody? If so, either they are a ninja-like role, or Gopher is lying again, or Gopher killed moody. If it wasn't Gopher or Carlington, I don't think there's much else I can add.

Is adnapemit scum? Moody received a result of one of SirG, emlightened and her being scum. It would seem odd for somebody to be able to mess with that result, as it's not a normal cop result. I could see that a miller or similar might affect the reliability of those results, or scum could have had some sort of framing ability, which just don't seem likely to have been submitted. I assume that adnapemit would have claimed miller if she'd known, and I doubt we have any submitted naive millers, but I could be completely wrong. Could mpolo/DJ be lying about what their ability does? It seems possible, since I can't really see any benefit for scum to have that role as submitted.

Let's assume we trust moody's result. That says we should lynch adnapemit. Hmm... with a mass-watcher out there, if in town's hands, I could see Madge giving an SK and/or Mafia faction kill the Ninja property. So, that sort of fits - ninja!adnapemit kills moody, and then tries to persuade people that moody's result can't be trusted.

Let's assume that adnapemit was moody's killer for a moment, and that I am right with my setup assumption, and that nobody withheld a kill. In that case, who could be the second killer? I'd actually be inclined to think matt, with the ability to ignore role-blocks, but who was stumped by adnapemit's kill immunity. I really don't have much evidence for this other than that matt bypassed my role-block, and that it neatly fits. I could easily see a lone scum player want to kill at least one more in the set {moody, adnapemit} after emlightened's lynch. Is the fact that both would have tried to in this circumstance too much of a coincidence? Maybe.

Summary: I think there's one SK and one Mafia alive. I think it more likely that Carlington killed moody than anybody else, either through Gopher "targeting" him or through explicitly killing him. Carlington is therefore a possible lynch-candidate. If mpolo confirms that he targeted Gopher last night and not bessie, then Gopher definitely is as well (also, a number of conclusions are a lot easier if he lied in some way, but I'm still inclined to trust my cop result). However, I think adnapemit is the most obvious one, because I don't see what could have messed with moody' results N1. In the event that adnapemit flips Town, I'd also be inclined to look at mpolo, who might be lying about their ability.

Vote adnapemit

FTR, the vote-block on matt does not affect the hammer number, according to my role PM.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:39 am UTC

EBWOP: I just realised that I haven't really looked at the missing DJ/mpolo results from N2 issue, which I don't think can be explained by my possible setup of scum!adnapemit and Matt. Either way, lynching adnapemit still seems like a good idea.
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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:55 am UTC

Just got to sit down to collect my thoughts, skimmed jimbob's wall, will do my analysis independently if that matters to anyone as it doesn't contain any new info as far as I could tell. You can expect it in 1-2 hours.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:01 pm UTC

@mpolo, bessie: please phone-post simple yes/no if you see this

Did Dj target bessie N1?

Did bessie receive Dj's list N2?

bessie wrote:

mpolo wrote:

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:50 pm UTC

Let's start with some claims as the main part of my role has already been guessed and the rest hopefully provides some insight on the lack of second kill N2.

- I'm a Jailer + self-Watcher (jailing somebody not only protects from kills but prevents any other action targeting that player).
- I can confirm that there is a priority order in which actions are resolved.
- I wasn't targeted by anyone both N1 and N2 (unless Ninja), I know I wasn't roleblocked either as then I would have received different night-result as confirmed by mod.
- I targeted bessie N1 and SDK N2.

Sabrar wrote:I don't see SK!bessie killing kalira
This is me breadcrumbing to blocking bessie N1. It was after this that I realized that SK could have unblockable kill.

Sabrar wrote:SDK: to me your turkey-related comment is very important today, please answer that question.
This was me thinking that SDK could be scum whose kill didn't go through and he wants to know whether he was role-blocked.

Other claims so far for my own benefit (contains comments as well):
Spoiler:
Gopher of Pern: Watcher with 1-shot super-Watcher. Ability was confirmed by multiple people, could still be scum leaving out details.
jimbobmacdoodle: roleblock/voteless, second part confirmed by matt, first part could be true if lower priority. Ability should not be given to scum, though could be balanced by making it unusable in LYLO.
moody: dead, no relevant ability to kill/block/redirect.
Djehutynakht/mpolo: gives out list of 3 people to someone else, at least 1 scum among them. No counter-claim and confirmed by moody, so ability can be taken as granted, though it could be scum giving out list of 3 townies.
Carlington: weird Cop/Vig, ability is possible if Gopher of Pern's super-Watcher is considered targeting each player, though I find this unlikely as in that case he should not have seen me target SDK
adnapemit: some kind of Jack-of-all-Trades, can give Tracker, can be immune. Need matt to claim if he knows whether his power worked, otherwise impossible to judge. However she made her claims before others and so far they hold up. Could of course still be scum.
SirGabriel: dead, redirect or switch of 2 players. Important ability to consider why moody received Dj's list instead of bessie/GoP.
SDK: Turkey-giver with different effects. Confirmed by jimbobmacdoodle, Gopher of Pern. If mod confirmed to jimbob that his Cop is Sane then only can be scum together with jimbob.
bessie: no ability claimed so far.
matt96: some kind of weird power, I won't even attempt to guess. Having no effect is consistent with other claims.
RoadieRich: dead, died before any actions were used.
emlightened: dead, roleblocked anyone who targeted her, likely doesn't matter for current analysis.
kalira: redirect or kill, important piece here again for N1 result.
Assumptions:
- ton of roleblocks going on, wouldn't be surprised at all if mods gave scum (either Mafia or SK) an unblockable/unredirectable kill (possibly 1-shot).
- similarly Ninja is also a possibility
- I would assume that any additional modifier (like Ninja/Strongman) received by scum only applies to their kill power.
- I would assume that scum can use their kill simultaneously with other abilities. No concrete reason for that, it just makes sense to me.

Deductions:
Q: Why did moody receive Djehutynakht's list?
A1: Assuming Djehutynakht targeted bessie N1:
Spoiler:
- It couldn't have been because SirGabriel switched those two. If his ability has higher priority than mine then I would have jailed moody instead. If mine had higher priority then his switching would not have taken place.
- It couldn't have been because I was redirected as no-one targeted me.
- Djehutynakht must have been redirected. Could have been SirGabriel (targeting a lurker) or kalira (targeting someone who has a possibility of not sending in any night-actions due to lurking, thereby free-kill). In the second case mpolo cannot be part of the Mafia-team and this is the main reason why I'm spending so much time on this.
- Why would moody say that it might not have been intended for him? Only realistic scenario is that SirGabriel told him about redirecting Djehutynakht, but that still doesn't make it too likely.
A2: Assuming Djehutynakht targeted Gopher of Pern N1:
Spoiler:
kalira/SirGabriel redirecting Dj for above reasons has unchanged potential, or SirGabriel switched moody and GoP. In this case however moody would have been sure that he wasn't the intended target.
Conclusion: either it was very unlikely that moody wasn't the intended target, or it would have been 100%. Need answers to decide.

Q: Who killed moody?
A: 1. If scum does not have Ninja AND Gopher of Pern is Town then Carlington remains the only possibility. I don't buy his power having this effect, because:
- No-one else targeted Carlington or moody, so only interaction could be from Gopher of Pern himself.
- However that would mean that he specifically targeted each player N2.
- I would assume that my roleblock has higher priority then any Watcher-power, meaning SDK would have been immune to his Watching
- Therefore he couldn't have seen me targeting SDK.
2. Gopher of Pern could be scum, omitting the result of their kill. Requires jimbob-GoP scum-team or Godfather.
3. Scum has Ninja. In that case anything is possible.

Speculations:
Q: Do we have SK?
A: Most probably, yes. kalira's ability couldn't have been the cause of either death N1, Town-aligned Vig should have claimed by now plus should have shot someone N2 as well (without having Ninja), only SK remains as likely possibility.

Q: Why was there no second death N2?
A: Either:
- SK/scum was blocked (could be matt or SDK, matt's potential abilities could have different priorities meaning jimbob blocked one but not both, SDK not likely to be Mafia, possible SK)
- target was immune (adnapemit or SDK)
- we have an odd-day SK or similar unusual role.

Q: Who is scum???
A: one of {adnapemit, mpolo} must be scum. My money is currently on adnapemit, though it would be great if we could clear up the confusion about mpolo's lists.

@Gopher of Pern: gun to your head who would you vote for from the above 2 and why?

@matt96: how sure are you that you ability had no effect N2?

@bessie regarding my organized mind:
Spoiler:
I have no way of convincing you that my mind works in much more complex ways than you seem to assume. I learned Lewis Carroll's Jabberwocky for my own amusement ~20 years ago, I performed it exactly twice in school, made no conscious effort to retain the knowledge and still can recite it by heart whenever I want. On the other hand if my shopping list consists of more than 5 items then I have to write it down in my phone otherwise there's a good chance of me missing one of them.
When I look at the thread-titles in the Mafia forum they immediately bring up images/memories about the game, what my role was, when I died and how, any significant plays that happened. I remember details and quickly look up or check anything that's relevant. However keeping 13 other player in mind without any notes (I never make notes) is hard when I have less time to devote to the game than before.
Hope this answers some of your concerns.

Sudden realization before hitting submit: I can't see a world where jimbob is Mafia. It would have meant 2 vote-blocking in hands of scum, with at least 1 being able to be used just before LYLO. There is no way a game like that would be ever balanced. This also means that SDK can't be Mafia either and was likely the target of the second kill N2 (of course this could be me overestimating the relevance of my action as usual). Also would mean that Gopher of Pern is scum/Godfather or scum has Ninja.

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Re: Secret Santa 2016 - D3 - Lunchtime!

Postby bessie » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:06 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@mpolo, bessie: please phone-post simple yes/no if you see this

Did Dj target bessie N1?

Did bessie receive Dj's list N2?

I think mpolo mixed up the days and targeted me N2. This makes sense, as Gopher saw him visit me N2. I didn’t receive any results. I don’t disbelieve DJ/mpolo sent them to me, and I don’t believe anyone else received them. This is related to my power.

More tonight. I was supposed to be at work early today but forgot to actually do anything to make sure this happened, like reset my alarm.

@Sabrar
Spoiler:
Aw, Sabrar, now you’re being teased. I am laughing at this because it seems my mind works in a similar way as yours. I can recite quite lengthy things learned in childhood, but I can’t remember my tasks for the day so everything needs to be written down. See alarm note above for example.


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