Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

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ahippo
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:53 am UTC

EBWOP:
I thought you were surprised by Diemo's role PM win condition originally,

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Sabrar
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:03 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Nitpicky? I can understand bessie, but matt96? Yes, I think they should have declared their double vote, but my thoughts on their scumminess goes beyond just that. Note, they haven't responded why they didn't declare either. I'm starting to think you are misconstruing my posts on purpose.
I've made my comment because I felt that you continuing to ask matt why he didn't claim double-vote explicitly, in bold and underlined (para-phrased, it's just how it felt to me) looked like you were unwilling to let go of an issue that doesn't need to be explained.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:17 am UTC

ahippo wrote:Like I said, I'd personally be quick to claim. Maybe it's because I don't know what would work, but I still feel it'd be a strong choice.
Then we'll have to disagree here.

ahippo wrote:It would, assuming it's correct. I have no reason to believe it's correct. It's just one possibility that I consider unlikely.
Ok, but then I don't understand your point. You asked why that possibility would let him off the hook, I pointed out why, you admitted it to be a valid reason. I have no idea what you are looking for here, please clarify.

ahippo wrote:My assumption is that you're lying about thinking that what I did D1 is townie because it's so scummy. Everyone else seems to think what I did was scummy. When it turns up I'm not Black Ajah, you'll be able to point and say "I told you so."
I also think that what you did was scummy, it's just that I have a different opinion about it. If you think that is scummy, it's your prerogative.

ahippo wrote:That's definitely a part of it, but at this point I have more opinions on other players than matt96 does, so why me and not him?
Because most people think like you do and consider a scum with double-vote impossible (or just very unlikely).

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:42 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I have no idea what you are looking for here, please clarify.

I think I wrote it in a way that was unclear. Given that moody was just fishing for information, then yes he was, and Madge is town. When I said "why should that let him off the hook?" I was referring to the fact that it is not a certainty. It's possible moody had the same win condition as Diemo. I don't believe he did.

Sabrar wrote:I also think that what you did was scummy, it's just that I have a different opinion about it. If you think that is scummy, it's your prerogative.

You're not wrong about what I did. It truly was out of inexperience and confusion. I just think you probably knew I wasn't Black Ajah, so you felt free to say so to gain credit when I'm inevitably lynched.

Sabrar wrote:
ahippo wrote:I have more opinions on other players than matt96 does, so why me and not him?
Because most people think like you do and consider a scum with double-vote impossible (or just very unlikely).
[/quote]
You're not voting for me, though. GoP's rationale was that I haven't done any scum-hunting. I haven't seen him express that he believes matt96 to be town, or at least not scum. It's possible I just missed it, though. It would be far from the first mistake I've made this game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:57 am UTC

ahippo wrote:Given that moody was just fishing for information, then yes he was, and Madge is town. When I said "why should that let him off the hook?" I was referring to the fact that it is not a certainty. It's possible moody had the same win condition as Diemo. I don't believe he did.
Ok, that's a bit clearer now. The possibility that it was scum!moody who was fishing for info still exists of course, I'm just currently considering it less likely.

ahippo wrote:You're not wrong about what I did. It truly was out of inexperience and confusion. I just think you probably knew I wasn't Black Ajah, so you felt free to say so to gain credit when I'm inevitably lynched.
OK, so you're feeling that way, I understand that. It still doesn't make you right, nor does it give me any avenue of convincing you otherwise.

ahippo wrote:You're not voting for me, though. GoP's rationale was that I haven't done any scum-hunting. I haven't seen him express that he believes matt96 to be town, or at least not scum.
I misunderstood your question, I thought you were asking why the players overall are not voting for matt and didn't notice that it was directed for Gopher of Pern specifically. I'll try to keep my nose out of this particular discussion.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:35 pm UTC

ahippo wrote:It seems like the primary reason I'm leading in the votals is because of my D1 post.

I think the primary reason you’re leading the votals is lack of scumhunting. Matt hasn’t done much either, but he’s shown what many believe is a townie power, so because there is another candidate he’s been given a pass. But Matt’s (dimochka’s, etc) content will need to improve soon or townie power or not, it just isn’t worth keeping someone around who doesn’t post.

One problem with lurkers, and I’ve said it before, is that they’re a huge risk at endgame. In a three-way gun fight, a townie may have to choose between a town lurker with no content and a scum with great content.

ahippo wrote:If that's true, why wouldn't someone have come out by now to claim they were the one to block the kill, either as doctor or especially as roleblocker? I highly doubt there would have been a counter-claim, and in either situation we get strong information.

Role fishing. And doesn’t make sense. And there doesn’t need to be a counter claim because of the number of possibilities:

Scum didn’t use a kill last night (I’m listing this one for completeness).
Roleblocker blocked mafia.
Jailer blocked mafia.
Jailer protected target.
Doctor protected target.
Target is bulletproof.
Target is a commuter.
Delayed kill (poison).
And throw a redirector in there if you really want a mess.

ahippo wrote:Is bessie usually this nice? I'm willing to accept that these might be genuine acts of kindness not related to her role. I'm not convinced they aren't ploys to get me to like her. That dog avatar is playing some mind games with me.

I’m not sure if nice is the correct word. It’s the dog avatar. The dog is an expert at mind control. You don’t know how many times I’ve found myself in the kitchen, with no idea how I got there, holding a box of dog cookies which was slightly lighter than I remembered it being previously. :)

I would have liked more time to discuss some other things in your post with you, but Monday mornings are difficult for me, and are my busiest day at work. I want to leave this quote from D1 here because it’s something I keep trying to push in every game.
bessie wrote:Attention lurkers: less than 12 hours until deadline! I’ve seen your names pop in and out of the “who is online” list all day and you’re not posting so I guess it’s scum chat. Approximately 8 hours until my final opportunity to post, and I’m going to be asleep most of those hours. If you are scum, good job. You’ve lurked your way to D2. Townies, fine, you don’t want to say the wrong thing and draw suspicion or get lynched. Well you aren’t going to be lynched. I’m going to be lynched. One of you is going to be night killed and your thoughts are going to die with you. If you are waiting to post until just before deadline, you’re doing it wrong, because it won’t generate any content. There won’t be time for everyone to respond.

Citations not provided for every claim I’ve made about my previous content because I’m out of time. If you want citations, post early and often!

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby kalira » Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:47 pm UTC

There has been a request for an extension of the day. Soft deadline is currently at 7pm UTC today (~2.5 hours from now). Are there any other players who would like to support an extension?

Time and arguments marched on as a bit of air wafted through the area, stirring the dust around the assembled group.

Votals:

ahippo(4): Gopher of Pern, JudeMorrigan, Carlington, mpolo
bessie(1): SirGabriel
dimochka(1): Sabrar

Not voting: moody7277, dimochka, bessie, ahippo, matt96

With 11 alive, it is 6 to lynch.

Soft deadline is at 7pm UTC on Monday 30th of January (~2.5 hours from now). Please submit night actions before then (you are welcome to revise them later). Night will likely last only a couple of hours this time. If your night action has not been received by 9pm UTC on Monday, you may not get to use it.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby dimochka » Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:42 pm UTC

I would preferably like an extension as well.
I'll post before deadline but it'd be nice if we had some time for people to react.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:54 pm UTC

I'm granting a 48 hour extension (it would be 24 but I'm rather busy tomorrow). New deadline is 7pm UTC, Wednesday 1st February.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:15 pm UTC

I couldn't get on the forum for the one moment I could find to get online. I expected to be in sweet-sweet spoiler land by now, but I'll take the opportunity that's given to me.

bessie wrote:Target is bulletproof.
Target is a commuter.
Delayed kill (poison).
And throw a redirector in there if you really want a mess.

I admit, I just didn't think of these. They're a lot less common and didn't come to mind.

As for all the other ones, it's not about claiming a specific power. It's about claiming that you (in the abstract sense, not bessie) were the one to stop the night kill. That was what I was referring to when I said there probably wouldn't have been a counter-claim. It would obviously raise questions that would lead to the claimant having to reveal more. Even so with everything we know, is it truly more likely that the night kill was blocked in some fashion, than having a recruiting Black Ajah? I haven't seen any reason to believe so. I feel like you keep moving the goal posts on me for this idea.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:56 am UTC

I just got really busy so I'll post what I can and try to get back to this later.

Sabrar wrote:Just to clear up any confusion, when I spoke about Diemo's role I was commenting on his ability and not his win-condition.
Thanks for clearing that up. That makes a lot more sense.

dimochka wrote:I'll post before deadline but it'd be nice if we had some time for people to react.
So? Deadline’s passed.

ahippo wrote:Like I said, I'd personally be quick to claim. Maybe it's because I don't know what would work, but I still feel it'd be a strong choice.

I’m seriously concerned you still don’t see what’s wrong with this. Ok, let’s have an example.

The mafia team of SDK and kalira try to night kill Suzaku, who is bullet proof. The kill fails and they have no idea why, until the day begins.

Djehutynakht: I’m a roleblocker. I must have prevented the kill. Vytron is scum.
SDK: Great! Let’s lynch him.
Lawrencelot: Wait, I’m a doctor. I protected ConMan. Maybe I prevented the kill.
Suzaku: Maybe you’re both wrong. I’m bulletproof. What if I was the target?
kalira: I’m not sure we should lynch Vytron without more proof.
Misnomer: Vytron’s the best candidate, let’s lynch him and see what happens tonight.
Vytron: OK fine. Vote: Vytron

[Later in scum chat...]

kalira (wiping a tear from her eye); It’s…it’s like Christmas.
SDK: So which of them would you like to pick off first?


More later. Everyone post.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:56 am UTC

Oh, hey! We have more time! Thoughts, since I have the chance to make them:

Sabrar wrote:JudeMorrigan: my main problem with his content that he spends a lot of time replying to others and provides few reads of his own (I think this is only thing from D2 but please feel free to point out if I missed anything). That is a good way of appearing active but not committing yourself too much. Also I believe this question was missed, so it would be good if you could give it a go (though others are welcome to it as well). Neutral for now.

The first part is entirely fair and I feel bad about how true it's been this game day. I had really meant to have some meaninful indpendent content in the second half of my last post, but have been struggling something fierce with my reads this game day. Let's see if I can't do better in the second half of this post. :-)

As for the second part ... I see two main possibilities right now. It could be the factionless as a de facto town, a recruiting pro-Elaida faction and the Black Ajah. In that situation, I'd expect Siuan (who flavor-wise is already Amyrlin) to be a "strong" leader and Elaida to be "weak". Alternately, if Siuan and Elaida themselves are in the game, I could see them both heading up recruiting factions with their trying to recruit from the pool of factionless plus the black ajah. In that case, I'd expect Siuan and Elaida to both be potential strong leaders. Siuan's faction could conceivably (but wouldn't necessarily) be "town" in this case. I'm not sure either scenario would have much impact on my inclination to believe or disbelieve mpolo's note. As far as speculation about the number breakdowns go - heck if I know.

A quick note on powers and ajah colors: I'll say that the flavor of my power is tied to my ajah - it's just not intuitively obvious to me that the power itself is. Whether that's a case of the mods wanting the power in the game but not seeing a better fit for it or a case of my being a bit dense, I really don't know.

Ok, onto other things!

You may assume that anyone I don't specifically mention is "meh, neutral-ish, I guess, I've been at this too long tonight and want to go to bed"

ahippo: I've thought for a goodly while that he was likely part of a pro-Elaida faction. I buy his power-claim though, and I would expect Elaida herself (if she's in the game) to have a Fortelling-related power, so my assumption now is that he's not Elaida herself. I'd still rather take out a black ajah member (I keep writing things like "I'd still rather take out a black" and realizing how terrible it would sound taken out of context, hence the sometimes awkward sytax around statements like that :p), but better someone on Team Elaida than another player like Diemo. Plus it's always possible he's on Team Elaida *and* black ajah, especially if mpolo's note was true.

I really hope matt is able to take advantage of the extension to give us some more content. I know I'm a fine one to talk for D2. As is, I get his argument for wanting to see who would push the lynch to actually change, but I'm still pretty seriously concerned about him at this point.

I like Sabrar's content enough to keep him off of my lynchable-for-D2 list. There's a good amount of it, he's asking reasonable questions/making reasonable observations and nothing is jumping out at me as notably wonky. But I'm still concerned enough about his placing the deciding vote on Diemo that I don't think he'd be on my "solidly townie" tier if I made another full list like before.

bessie and Carlington probably would be on that tier for me right now. I don't agree with all of Carlington's reads, but I like the thought that seemed to go into them and his interactions with Sabrar read concientious townie to me. bessie's done nothing to disuade me from my intial impression. Just solid content all-around.

I don't have a major issue with dim. Sure he could use more content. I feel like that's been a pretty common failing this game day and what's there by him doesn't seem bad. Sort of neutral-ish with a hint of townie to me.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:49 am UTC

bessie wrote:Djehutynakht: I’m a roleblocker. I must have prevented the kill. Vytron is scum.
SDK: Great! Let’s lynch him.
Lawrencelot: Wait, I’m a doctor. I protected ConMan. Maybe I prevented the kill.
Suzaku: Maybe you’re both wrong. I’m bulletproof. What if I was the target?
kalira: I’m not sure we should lynch Vytron without more proof.
Misnomer: Vytron’s the best candidate, let’s lynch him and see what happens tonight.
Vytron: OK fine. Vote: Vytron

[Later in scum chat...]

kalira (wiping a tear from her eye); It’s…it’s like Christmas.
SDK: So which of them would you like to pick off first?

You've been making way more assumptions than I ever did. If a game did have that much town, anti-NK roles it would be horrifically imbalanced. I think it's highly unlikely for there to be more than one person who had a reason to claim, thus there would probably be no counter-claim. I feel like you and Sabrar have been saying something along the lines of "well it's possible that ahippo is wrong, so he probably is." Seriously? There could be one serial killer Gray Man and the rest of us are all just futzing about trying to find him with a bunch of different ways to stop the kill.
But probably not.
There could be a buncha townie anti-night-kill roles that could possibly counter-claim responsibilty
But probably not.
There could be some independent Kin (see wiki The Kin for context) faction that needs a specific player to be raised Amyrlin so they can bring the Kin back into the White Tower.
But probably not.

bessie has been adamant in her refutations of my arguments that Black Ajah are recruiters. She might have reason to deny it. I think she is going to replace Sabrar on my list of people I'm willing to vote for. If someone has been recruited by the Black Ajah, my money right now is on bessie. Also, Madge has posted exactly once. Why am I getting called out for lack of content now?

Open question here: Do we have any solid reason to believe scum NK was blocked or withheld? If not, is there a strong reason to disbelieve that Black Ajah are recruiters? (And before you ask, yes, we have reason to believe Black Ajah are recruiters).

JudeMorrigan wrote:I keep writing things like "I'd still rather take out a black" and realizing how terrible it would sound taken out of context

Heheh. I've been doing the same thing.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:19 am UTC

@JudeMorrigan: thanks for the updated setup-speculation. Regarding your reads what gives you the 'hint of townie' with regards to dimochka? Also, if you consider bessie as firmly town, what do you think of SirGabriel?

ahippo wrote:If a game did have that much town, anti-NK roles it would be horrifically imbalanced.
When I modded Dollhouse Town had a full Doctor, a 1-shot Doctor and a 1-shot Bulletproof character. SK was also 1-shot BP and there was an indie Roleblocker. To balance that much protection there was also a 1-shot Vigilante, 2 Lovers and both Mafia and SK had access to a 'once unblockable' kill. Most of this didn't affect the game at all, but I'm using this example to show that it is possible to have several of these roles present without necessarily giving Town a free win (in fact Mafia won that game).

ahippo wrote:I feel like you and Sabrar have been saying something along the lines of "well it's possible that ahippo is wrong, so he probably is."
Nope, I'm saying that "It's possible that ahippo is wrong and there is no way to determine (without full-claims) what the real situation is so I'm erring on the side of caution."

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:55 am UTC

matt96 has been mod-prodded.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:07 am UTC

Unvote: ahippo

No need to have a huge number of votes there to tempt a scum move. IGMEOY still, ahippo.

For me, being in Elaida's faction is almost as bad as being Black Ajah, if that's the case. However, we haven't had any hint of how Amyrlins are changed, so they are certainly a lesser threat at the moment.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:01 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:"It's possible that ahippo is wrong and there is no way to determine (without full-claims) what the real situation is so I'm erring on the side of caution."

ahippo wrote:Do we have any solid reason to believe scum NK was blocked or withheld? If not, is there a strong reason to disbelieve that Black Ajah are recruiters? (And before you ask, yes, we have reason to believe Black Ajah are recruiters).

If you're going to claim that the side of caution is to assume the Black Ajah have a night kill, but it didn't go through for one reason or another, I'd like to see any evidence of this. Otherwise, it's more realistic to assume the information we do have is true, or at least close to true. If you can't produce any evidence, I have no reason to change my opinion.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:05 am UTC

I think you continue to misinterpret what I'm trying to say. You started the discussion with "if we have Doctor/Roleblocker they should claim". I replied that they should not because it would reveal important info to scum and it might not be due to Doc/RB action that the NK failed.
What evidence do I need to produce in your opinion?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:30 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:You started the discussion with "if we have Doctor/Roleblocker they should claim".

This is just not true. I said that I believe it would be helpful for town to know this, assuming it happened. And if I were in that position I would have claimed. And given that nobody has done so, it's unlikely that it happened at all. Therefore I doubt any night kill was blocked. You've said you disagree with this idea, because you think it's better not to claim in this situation. That's valid.

Sabrar wrote:What evidence do I need to produce in your opinion?

Perhaps evidence is the wrong word. Evidence implies knowledge. Whether you have that knowledge or not is irrelevant, if you're not willing to share it for any reason. So what reasoning do you have to say that it is more likely that the Black Ajah night-kill didn't go through, and that what has been proposed about the Black Ajah being recruiters is to be disbelieved?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:41 am UTC

ahippo wrote:So what reasoning do you have to say that it is more likely that the Black Ajah night-kill didn't go through, and that what has been proposed about the Black Ajah being recruiters is to be disbelieved?
Please point to where you're getting this from because I never said that we shouldn't trust mpolo's info.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:51 am UTC

You know what, let me simplify this and break it down for you (apologies if it sounds condescending).

Scenario 1: Black Ajah has night-kill, it was blocked somehow.
Should Doctor claim? No. Roleblock might have been effective, revealing Doc to scum is very bad.
Should Roleblocker claim? No. Doc might have been effective.

Scenario 2: Black Ajah has no night-kill.
Should Doctor claim? Hell no. (If Doctor exists we can assume that there is at least 1 NK controlled by scum in the game, so this scenario is less likely).
Should Roleblocker claim? Hell no. Again, it would reveal Town PR for absolutely no gain.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:40 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Scenario 1: Black Ajah has night-kill, it was blocked somehow.
Should Doctor claim? No. Roleblock might have been effective, revealing Doc to scum is very bad.
Should Roleblocker claim? No. Doc might have been effective.

It's that might that doesn't work for me. Yes, that's possible, but very unlikely. If you're a doctor and you wake up to find no night kill, you've got a pretty good reason to believe you did it right. And again, it's more a matter of opinion whether it would be the right thing to do to claim.

Sabrar wrote:Scenario 2: Black Ajah has no night-kill.
Should Doctor claim? Hell no.(If Doctor exists we can assume that there is at least 1 NK controlled by scum in the game, so this scenario is less likely).
Should Roleblocker claim? Hell no. Again, it would reveal Town PR for absolutely no gain.

Why are you assuming that any doctor would exist in that setup? I'm not. My assumption is that there is no doctor because there is no consistent scum night kill. Having a designated doctor to stop a serial killer is super weird, to me, plus there's no reason to believe in a serial killer at all. And if there is a roleblocker, why would they assume they weren't the cause of the lack of night kill? Setups with no night kill are extremely rare and it's unreasonable to assume that you're in one until you have reason to believe you are. If there were a roleblocker who didn't share that information, it would leave town very in the dark and much more likely to lynch another townie, leading to a much worse scenario D3.

Again, that's just a matter of opinion. We could argue simulated situations back and forth all day on whether or not it's appropriate for someone to claim they believe they blocked a kill.

I'm going to ask as bluntly as possible: What percentage of likelihood do you believe the Black Ajah had a kill N1 that didn't go through for some reason, vs. What percentage of likelihood do you believe the Black Ajah did not have a kill N1? I'm at 15/85 respectively. And if the former is less than the latter, why spend all this time pointing out the situations I could potentially be wrong instead of agreeing, even tentatively, with my proposal?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:50 am UTC

I don't think you're getting my point and I'm a bit tired of repeating myself. Let me ask you just 1 question:
If you think that there is an 85% chance of scum not having NK, why in the hell would you claim as Roleblocker and reveal your ability for absolutely no gain whatsoever?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:56 pm UTC

Okay, I didn't really want to do this, but it looks like ahippo will be lynched if I don't, so I'm going to claim: I am Siuan Sanche, and ahippo is a member of my faction.

There are two factions in the game (that I know of), Elaida+supporters and Siuan+supporters, in addition to the factionless. Assuming the two factions work the same, they can each attempt to recruit one player at night, unless a member of their faction was just lynched, in which case the faction whose member was lynched will not be able to recruit that night. Also, the flavor of my role PM mentioned that someone is spreading rumors about the non-existent Black Ajah, so I think Elaida's faction is the closest thing we have to a mafia. And ahippo, as my supporter, knew at least most of that.

Lynching ahippo would be very helpful to Elaida's faction, especially at this point in the game, so I think it's worth me risking a role-reveal to try to prevent that lynch.

I got the impression that moody was genuinely surprised about Diemo's "unaligned" flip, and he was not in my faction, so he/Madge is currently my best read for being either Elaida herself or one of her supporters.

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Vote: Madge

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:08 pm UTC

@SirGabriel: what changed since yesterday when ahippo was extremely close to getting lynched? Why didn't you reveal this sooner?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:01 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SirGabriel: what changed since yesterday when ahippo was extremely close to getting lynched? Why didn't you reveal this sooner?

Me revealing and ahippo getting lynched anyway was the worst case scenario. Me not revealing and ahippo not getting lynched would be the best case. By the time I realized ahippo would be lynched if I didn't claim, it was late enough in the day that I didn't think a claim was likely to save him. Now that we have the extension, hopefully there's enough time left for those voting for ahippo to change their minds.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:40 pm UTC

Hmm, that's an interesting story, SirGabriel. I even think there's a lot of truth in it. There's just one problem ...

From tDR (book 3), Chapter 14:

"I suppose you don't [understand], at that. You are the only two in the Tower that I can be absolutely sure are not Black Ajah." The Amyrlin's mouth still twisted around those words. "Liandrin and her twelve went, but did all of them go? Or did they leave some of their number behind, like a stub in shallow water that you don't see till it puts a hole in your boat? It may be I'll not find that out until it is too late, but I will not let Liandrin and the others get away with what they did. Not the theft, and especially not the murders. No one kills my people and walks away unscathed. And I'll not let thirteen trained Aes Sedai serve the Shadow. I mean to find them, and still them!"

NB: Liandrin and her twelve refer to same group that are described as a "group of Sisters [who] had fled the Tower, stealing many ter’angreal" in the D1 flavor. Also, Siuan is bound by the Three Oaths and literally incapable of telling a flat-out lie.

I find it barely conceivable that the black ajah isn't actually in this game and we (or at least I) have been chasing a red herring. I find it *completely* inconceivable that Suian would have flavor calling the black ajah non-existent. She knows for a stone-cold fact that they exist and is really, seriously ticked off about it.

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vote: SirGabriel

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:49 pm UTC

I had noted moody's seeming surprise at the unaligned faction.

@JudeMorrigan: I don't think that SirGabriel claimed to have evidence that the Black Ajah doesn't exist, only that he knows for sure of two factions and the unaligned.

Depending on ahippo's identity, he could theoretically still be Black Ajah, unknown to Siuan, though this is considerably less likely than before.

Vote: Madge

Primarily to get an alternative to ahippo out there.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:00 pm UTC

He stated "Also, the flavor of my role PM mentioned that someone is spreading rumors about the non-existent Black Ajah".

Either that's a lie or his being Siuan is a lie. No two ways around it.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:12 pm UTC

Oops, missed that point.

I'm not sure the whole claim fits together in that case, as the unaligned essentially win no matter who gets into power in that case. Unless Elaida is really the only weak leader?

The note I got could definitely be misinformation, but it just seems so unlikely that there is no Black.

On the other hand, if there are two competing cults here and no kills, I'm not even sure what I should be doing at this point.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:18 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:if there are two competing cults here and no kills, I'm not even sure what I should be doing at this point.

Yeah, that's how I've been feeling all game. Up until I decided to claim, my answer was basically "try not to get lynched."

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:26 pm UTC

@SirGabriel: thanks, that makes sense.

It is at this point that I hate being flavor-blind. So my understanding is the following:

- Siuan is an extremely important character that many have speculated to be in the game and she is absolutely on the good side. Therefore (assuming there will be no counter-claims) SirGabriel can only claim this in two circumstances:
A) he is Siuan,
B) he is scum and has Siuan as false-claim because he knows that she is not in the game.

I find B highly unlikely for a number of reasons, the main part is flavor. It is just not done that in a game based on flavor the main protagonist is missing and is given to scum as false-claim. It goes against the nature of the setup. Therefore I believe him being Siuan, his explanation about the factions also makes sense with what we know so far (and he hinted at this knowledge very early when questioning mpolo's note).

Now JudeMorrigan is convinced that the Black Ajah are part of the game because of flavor (and he must know the books really well if he was able to search up that quote so fast). He is basically voting for a character who is as close to an Innocent Child as anyone can be without actual mod-reveal. He is either seriously misinterpreting the situation or is scum himself (from Elaida's faction). The only thing that could explain this if the flavor received by SirGabriel was misleading and we'd really have Black Ajah in the game despite the role-pm, however the mod specifically stated that he would do no such thing.

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Vote: JudeMorrigan


You find it 'barely inconceivable' that we have no Black Ajah. Do you have any evidence to support that or do you really think that Siuan would not be Town?
Of course if someone counter-claims SirGabriel then all of the above is moot.

Request mod-prod on Madge.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:37 pm UTC

Ok, now that is interesting.

With all the flavour, I very much doubt that the black ajah do not exist. If SirGabriel is telling the truth about the two factions, that would make it a 2/2/2-3/5-6 breakup, with the 2 cults with 2 members each, a 2 to 3 member mafia, and 5-6 unaligned or town.

I am not inclined to believe SirGabriel all the way. The way ahippo is fighting for a mafia less setup is pinging me very hard. If there is black ajah in this game, ahippo and SirGabriel are trying their hardest to downplay them. Which would be a thing that Elaida of the red ajah would want.

ahippo, you really think that there is only a 15% chance of there being a NK, just off a lack of NK the first night? You are really fudging the numbers here. It is far more likely that the mafia was blocked, or didn't use their NK. It happens all the time.

Also, in regards to matt, I have put him in the scummy end of my list. Just not as scummy as ahippo.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:48 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:You find it 'barely inconceivable' that we have no Black Ajah. Do you have any evidence to support that or do you really think that Siuan would not be Town?

I find it 'barely conceivable' that we have no Black Ajah. As in, I'm not willing to completely discount the possibility, but consider it unlikely. But that's not the part that bothers me. The part that bothers me is that he's claiming Siuan AND flavor that would be completely incompatible with Siuan. Elaida, yes. She eventually learned better, but I think she was still buying the official Tower party line (e.g., the existence of the black ajah is a vicious, untrue rumor) at this point. But Siuan? Does not compute. Hell, just compare his claimed flavor with the D1 flavor if you like.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:27 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SirGabriel: thanks, that makes sense.

It is at this point that I hate being flavor-blind. So my understanding is the following:

- Siuan is an extremely important character that many have speculated to be in the game and she is absolutely on the good side. Therefore (assuming there will be no counter-claims) SirGabriel can only claim this in two circumstances:
A) he is Siuan,
B) he is scum and has Siuan as false-claim because he knows that she is not in the game.

I find B highly unlikely for a number of reasons, the main part is flavor. It is just not done that in a game based on flavor the main protagonist is missing and is given to scum as false-claim. It goes against the nature of the setup. Therefore I believe him being Siuan, his explanation about the factions also makes sense with what we know so far (and he hinted at this knowledge very early when questioning mpolo's note).

Now JudeMorrigan is convinced that the Black Ajah are part of the game because of flavor (and he must know the books really well if he was able to search up that quote so fast). He is basically voting for a character who is as close to an Innocent Child as anyone can be without actual mod-reveal. He is either seriously misinterpreting the situation or is scum himself (from Elaida's faction). The only thing that could explain this if the flavor received by SirGabriel was misleading and we'd really have Black Ajah in the game despite the role-pm, however the mod specifically stated that he would do no such thing.

Unvote
Vote: JudeMorrigan


You find it 'barely inconceivable' that we have no Black Ajah. Do you have any evidence to support that or do you really think that Siuan would not be Town?
Of course if someone counter-claims SirGabriel then all of the above is moot.

Request mod-prod on Madge.


Sabrar, don't you think it unlikely that in the opening flavour that Siuan is hunting for black ajah, but now we have a player that claims to be Siuan, and says the blacks are a myth?

It also seems that SirGabriel has much more information than the rest of us. That typically means that they are scum.

Sabrar, I wish there was a way to confirm if they were telling the truth, but in absence of that, would it not be better to lynch ahippo, and if they do indeed support Siuan, then we all just follow SirGabriel the next day?

mpolo, why vote for madge? There is already a vote on them. Are you part of SirGabriels faction as well?

Jude, I think it'd be better to lynch ahippo rather than SirGabriel. Either way it will confirm, but if they are Siuan, I'd rather lynch the supporter than Siuan herself.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:03 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Jude, I think it'd be better to lynch ahippo rather than SirGabriel. Either way it will confirm, but if they are Siuan, I'd rather lynch the supporter than Siuan herself.

As convinced as I am that SirGabriel's flavor claim is fundamentally incompatible with his name claim ... that's entirely fair.

unvote: SirGabriel

vote: ahippo

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby matt96 » Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:16 am UTC

Looks like SirGabriel's claim is going to be important, although I notice conspicuously absent were claims of what he did last night. It has yet to be claimed whether ahippo was recruited last night or was already a follower day 1. I think this is important as Elaida's faction (should it exist) likely has the same number of members as Siuan's, assuming that the unaligned win con doesn't differentiate between the two, and more if only Elaida's faction is incompatible with the unaligneds but Siuan's is compatible. I don't plan on putting down my vote before getting some more information out of SirGabriel, but that could change depending on how long I need to wait for a response.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:27 am UTC

matt96 wrote:Looks like SirGabriel's claim is going to be important, although I notice conspicuously absent were claims of what he did last night. It has yet to be claimed whether ahippo was recruited last night or was already a follower day 1. I think this is important as Elaida's faction (should it exist) likely has the same number of members as Siuan's, assuming that the unaligned win con doesn't differentiate between the two, and more if only Elaida's faction is incompatible with the unaligneds but Siuan's is compatible. I don't plan on putting down my vote before getting some more information out of SirGabriel, but that could change depending on how long I need to wait for a response.

ahippo was my only supporter at the start of the game; I recruited another player last night. Siuan's win condition is compatible with the unaligned; I don't know whether Elaida's is.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Madge » Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:43 am UTC

Sorry guys, I kind of forgot how much time Mafia takes, and not being familiar with the flavour - even though we're getting some EXCITING FUN UNPREDICTABLE STUFF happening - means I'm feeling lost for, uh, quite a lot of this. Plus last night in my normal mafia time I was trying to do more of my writing project, so I think in retrospect I shouldn't have offered to replace in (that said, I'm hoping to continue with this game and will try and put more effort in!).

This claim of SirG's is very interesting. TWO cults? I don't even like having ONE cult :(. I'm wondering if it's some sort of crazy gambit from scum trying to save a scummate - but I don't think that's true, scum wouldn't do anything so obvious.

Because of my power I actually think it's reasonable that we don't have a doctor. My power is kind of strange in how it works, like, it could conceivably be a doctor but could also conceivably be very bad for whoever I use it on, depending on the specifics of other roles. (I am not a redirector FWIW).

ahippo has been pinging me more and more. It looks like desperation. The only thing stopping me from voting is a) the worry that I've missed something and b) SirG's defense. Like I said before, it's so scummy it can't possibly be scummy - but really it's more what I'd expect from a pro-town group like masons.

That said, he *did* more or less admit that he was cult. Aren't cults a bad thing? Remind me why we shouldn't just lynch them both ASAP????
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Madge » Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:45 am UTC

EBWOP - ohhh SirG is saying his win condition is compatible? I'm not sure I want to trust him.
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