Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (Pre-game)

Postby ahippo » Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:20 pm UTC

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (Pre-game)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:20 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@ahippo: I haven't had the chance to play with you before, are you experienced Mafia players? Do you have any preferences regarding game-style or whatever?


I've got a couple games under my belt here on xkcd Mafia. I was never a particularly good player, but I had fun. I was bored one night and decided to check up on this community since it had been a while and lo-and-behold one of my favorite series was getting the mafia treatment and I could sign up! In the past year or so, I've played quite a few games of One Night Ultimate Werewolf with the smartest friends I have and have gotten pretty good, so I may be better this time around. No guarantees, though. For now I'm not expecting to be much of a leader.

My job allows me to check in pretty often so I'm going to be active. I'm very familiar with The Wheel of Time so we'll see if that becomes useful at some point other than for mild, fun roleplaying. If not, so be it. The Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills.

So it seems likely that there is more than one anti-town faction, or maybe one anti-town one neutral. Obviously, it's possible for the Amyrlin to die or get deposed so there's probably a mechanic to instate another one. I'll have to go back and read the first game, but it seems like a pretty power-heavy setup too. I'm expecting a lot of craziness.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 17, 2017 5:05 am UTC

bessie wrote:Welcome back ahippo and JudeMorrigan!

Thanks, bessie! It's nice to be back.

SirGabriel wrote:ahippo, who admits to having flavor knowledge, seems to think it is most likely anti-town or possibly neutral, and I would like to hear his reasoning behind that, as well as the opinions of anyone else with sufficient flavor knowledge to make an educated guess.

You're right that it was the PM to all players that gave me that thought. But having read the whole series, especially The Shadow Rising, there are a whole lot of different influences in The White Tower. The Black Ajah are the most obvious evil, and I would be surprised to find out they aren't our primary antagonist. There are dream-walkers from Tel'aran'rhiod (jeez this series has silly names, doesn't it?) who are murderers or just people from different cultures. There are various factions who end up deposing Siuan Sanche as Amyriln during the events of TSR. There are the Seanchan who infiltrated The White Tower but only later in the series, so that seems less likely right now. There were even Black Ajah who were secretly working against the Forsaken etc, so there's a lot for any moderator to go off of when creating a mafia setting for it. I guess if I were to update my sentiments on that PM, whomever has that win condition is likely pro-town but don't care who's Amyriln. That's why I'm nearly certain the Amyrlin can be killed or deposed. But I wouldn't be surprised if there was one true independent, regardless.

bessie wrote:FoS dimochka

I can't think of a single character other than The Dark One who has a direct confrontational relationship with The Creator, and even then not really. I'm more inclined to take this as a joke, but I've been away from the game a while, so maybe you have a point.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:57 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:But based on that message, certain people seem to be considered "strong leaders", and it is important for at least one faction that one of those be on the Amrylin seat. From logic of the book this is fairly "town",

I suspect that Siuan Sanche is a "strong leader". Eliada, who replaced her in the books, was almost a puppet for the Black Ajah.

From a reader's perspective, Elaida was a totally awful leader. From a character's perspective, many of the Aes Sedai think of her as strong. I think it's safe to assume she's part of the game. Whether she fits the win condition of someone strong being on the Amyrlin Seat, I'm not really sure.

Gopher of Pern wrote:ahippo seems to think that the Amerlyn Seat may be able to change hands? During the game, or as a result of the game?

Considering there's at least one person whose win condition is based on who is Amyrlin, (or maybe who isn't) I can only assume there must be some way to control who that is. I didn't consider that it might only be in the event of a general town victory that we could raise a new Amyrlin, should Siuan not be on it. That would be a reasonable way to handle it.

In any case, it's not super relevant right now. If all goes well, we'll never have to know how to raise a new Amyrlin. Six out of seven Ajahs recommend Colgate Total getting rid of darkfriends!

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby ahippo » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:46 am UTC

JudeMorrigan wrote:
ahippo wrote:Six out of seven Ajahs recommend Colgate Total getting rid of darkfriends!

Now, this is a curious statement. I'm pretty sure all seven [official] ajahs would be completely down with getting rid of darkfriends. (For the flavorblind, the official ajahs are blue, red, green, white, grey, brown and yellow.)


Honestly, I just forgot about the Greys, and I was including Black in that list. I meant seven out of eight.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby ahippo » Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:49 am UTC

I'm having a hard time convincing myself of anything regarding who's acting scummy and who's not. I was never a good scum-hunter in the first place so I doubt that's gonna change in my first game after having been out of the game for ... a year and a half? So instead I'm gonna send out some questions to generate something I think I can weigh in on or learn from.

  • What scum-hunting strategies have worked for you in the past?
  • Do you generally prefer to act based on assumptions then change if your assumptions prove wrong, or wait until you're confident?
  • When do you think it's appropriate for a townie to claim their role?

    And just for fun, (any answer to this last question I don't consider to be related to anything in game)
  • If you were an Aes Sedai, which Ajah would you pick?

I think it's only fair for me to answer my own questions first.

  • If I had any good examples of my own, I wouldn't be asking this question.
  • I would rather wait until I'm confident.
  • In closed setups, unless one trustworthy claim can lead to a win or prevent a loss, it's usually better to hold onto your role until you're dead.
  • Yellow Ajah. I've been playing healers for years.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:19 am UTC

Thanks to everyone who took the time to answer my questions! The first one turned out to be the most important to my own investigation, but I appreciate them all. My second question was more an indicator of how people are willing to vote in this particular game. For the third question, I was thinking it might be reasonable for me to claim my Ajah, though I think most people would agree your Ajah proves very little even if you're telling the truth. Most of my time was spent pondering that first question.

I spent a long night looking at nearly ever game since I left. I admit that I skimmed most of the threads just to find out what I thought relevant. I specifically looked for three things.

1: Whether the D1 lynch was against someone anti-town.
2: Why the lynch happened, extremely simplified.
3: Who won in the end.

Ultimately, I didn't feel justified in declaring if any one reason was good or bad, but the numbers are solid.

These are my findings -

Spoiler:
Chaos Mafia - Correct D1 lynch on Freezeblade
Primary reasoning: Distrust of cops and cop results.
Mafia Win


Best Idea Mafia - Incorrect D1 lynch on mpolo
Primary reasoning: ... Because ... ?
Town Win (thanks to modkill)


Vanillafia - Incorrect D1 lynch on Dr Ug
Primary reasoning: Mod killed for rule breaking, counted as lynch
lynx would have been lynched, which would have been correct
Town Win


Hangafia - Correct D1 lynch on Nebduck
Primary reasoning: Acting strange over claimed role changes.
Perfect Town Win


Once Upon a Mafia - Correct D1 lynch on Vytron
Primary reasoning: Riding SDK really hard, then self-voting in defense.
Mafia Win


Mafia Cave - Incorrect D1 lynch on Vytron
Primary reasoning: Lied, then mason buddy never defended him even after mason claim.
Mafia Win


Draculafia - Correct D1 lynch on ConMan (serial killer)
Primary reasoning: Little game content, votes with little reason.
Town Win


Smalltown Werewolf - Correct D1 lynch on Opus_723
Primary reasoning: Rarely posted, mildly suspicious, not very useful power.
Town Win


2015 Secret Santa - Correct D1 lynch on Madge
Primary reasoning: FoSing people for less than great reasons and generally odd behavior.
Mafia Win


PyPokemon 2 - Correct D1 lynch on Sabrar
Primary reasoning: Honestly claimed power, attacked dimochka very hard.
Town Win


Wheel of Time 1 - Incorrect lynch on Madge
Primary reasoning: Light content, slightly suspicious play before replacement, no great alternatives.
Town Win (It would be Cauthon's luck to be the last one alive)


Shakespeare Mafia II - Incorrect lynch on heuristically_alone
Primary reasoning: Nearly admitted to being a lyncher, but really only last minute votes cynched it.
Town Win (That game was fantastic to read. So fun.)


Baker Street Irregulars - No Lynch D1 (First Lynch was Correct)
Primary reasoning: Tons of information on D2.
Town Win


Pen Pals Mafia - Correct D1 lynch on Djehutynakht, 50/50 for also correct lynch on Madge
Primary reasoning: Got in a fight with Madge (SK) and people both were suspicious.
Town Win


FAC668 - Incorrect D1 lynch on Carlington
Primary reasoning: Carlington said that it might be better for the cop not to claim (he was cop). That wasn't popular.
Town Win


Trial of the Pariahs - Incorrect D1 lynch on ConMan
Primary reasoning: Supposed active-lurking. Didn't think he had much to add.
Town Win


Impromptu Mafia - Correct D1 lynch on Sabrar
Primary reasoning: One half-reasonable vote on metagaming the mod, one joke vote, one vote manipulation.
Mafia Win

2016 Secret Santa - Correct D1 lynch on RoadieRich
Primary Reasoning: Didn't post.
Town Win


That's eighteen games.


13/18 Town Wins OR 72.2%
5/18 Mafia Wins OR 27.8%

Independent victories or losses are not considered in this list.

11/18 Correct (that benefit town) Day One Lynches OR 61.1%
7/18 Incorrect Day One Lynches OR 38.9%

7/18 Had Correct D1 lynches that lead to Town Wins OR 38.9% (Hang, Dracula, Smalltown, Pokemon, Penpals, SS2016, Baker[counted for first lynch])

6/18 Had Incorrect D1 lynches that lead to Town Wins OR 33.3% (Best, Vanilla, WoT1, Shakespeare, FAC668, Pariahs)

4/18 Had Correct D1 lynches that lead to Mafia Wins OR 22.2% (Chaos, Upon, SS2015, Impromptu)

1/18 Had Incorrect D1 lynches that lead to Mafia Wins OR 5.6% (Cave)

7/13 Town wins are correlated to correct D1 lynches OR 53.8%
6/13 Town wins are correlated to incorrect D1 lynches OR 46.2%

4/5 Mafia wins are correlated to correct D1 lynches OR 80%
1/5 Mafia wins are correlated to incorrect D1 lynches OR 20%

Sooooo ... I didn't expect to come to this conclusion. Statistics are less and less perfect with a smaller sample size, and eighteen isn't huge. The numbers say it's better for town to lynch mafia. But the numbers also say, it's much better for mafia to lynch mafia. The reason I would personally ascribe to this is that scum are pretty good at not implicating other scum, especially while being lynched. Once they know they're probably going down, Omertà kicks in and they take the fall.
In contrast, if someone flips townie, we can know that they were being sincere. From there, if they're an experienced player especially, we can understand that they are likely correct on who's scum. Or at least, that they're not protecting scum.

Let the record show, I don't believe bessie is scum. I'm not 100% behind her ideas, but they don't feel particularly scummy to me. If she gets lynched and flips scum, that's not bad for town. She seems to have lots of thoughts on who's scummy which, if she flips town, could be considerably better for town.

Vote: bessie

She's a particularly analytical player, with lots of strong opinions. Her flip would be very informative. I think it's important to restate, this is only for Day One. The following days are much more important in terms of correct lynches. D2, I will absolutely not vote for anyone I don't sincerely believe is scum.

**

To address the concerns about myself, I definitely understand where you're coming from. It took me a while to feel my way back into the groove of things. I was afraid to say anything other than flavor speculation, being a fan of WoT, and scared to be labeled scum for inexperienced guessing.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:58 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I was SK, so it was obviously in Mafia's favor to lynch me

I think that the mafia would have been better off leaving you alive for at least the first night, since it's far more likely for any given SK to kill town. I stand by that.

Sabrar wrote:but it fails completely to justify your final verdict of "it's much better for mafia to lynch mafia". I don't have the time to go through your whole list but you mesh games with completely different styles together.

My primary argument here is that lynching mafia doesn't give nearly us as much useful information as lynching town (Day One only) for the simple reason that you're actually all pretty good players. Mafia don't give away other mafia, and townies have good instincts. I'd rather know that one person was being honest than that someone was lying.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:15 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
ahippo wrote:My primary argument here is that lynching mafia doesn't give nearly us as much useful information as lynching town (Day One only)
I disagree, in my experience lynching Mafia D1 usually gives us least 2-3 confirmed townies based on vote-analysis.

Fair point. I haven't spent any time looking at what the breakdown of town/scum/independent is for any given D1 lynch in my list. Assuming I survive the lynch and night, that will be my next endeavor. Do you have any numbers on that yourself? If you do, that would be helpful.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:49 pm UTC

bessie wrote:You mean to tell me that you spent the entire weekend reading old games instead of contributing to this one?

Yep.
bessie wrote:(Why did you leave out Dollhouse? D1 Town lynch, mafia win, you should read that one it is one of my favorite games.)

Just missed it. That puts the incorrect lynch, mafia win percentage at 33.3% of all mafia wins which is definitely significant, but not huge.

bessie wrote:Rereading your post and this stands out:
ahippo wrote: For the third question, I was thinking it might be reasonable for me to claim my Ajah,

ahippo wrote:Yellow Ajah. I've been playing healers for years.

So, did you just claim to be Yellow Ajah/doctor? Why?

I'm not Yellow Ajah nor doctor. That last question really was just for fun.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:01 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:it is so scummy that I'm willing to entertain the idea that he is just misguided.

Heh. I'm touched.

It's unfortunate that we learned almost nothing from lynching Diemo. We already knew someone had that win condition, and I would consider that role pretty townie. The only thing that made him "unaligned" was that he didn't have a horse in the race on who's Amyrlin. His one post is pretty unremarkable. We did get off the hook for the NK (assuming there is one) which means some roleblocker probably got it right. There should be a fair amount of new information to work with, too. All in all, it's not so bad.

SirGabriel wrote:Does anyone object to having a mass claim of our colors? I have information that might be useful if everyone first claims their color.

This is pretty unexpected to me. Personally, I'm comfortable with claiming my Ajah, but I came to the conclusion that it probably wouldn't give us any useful information. Could you give us more of an idea why?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:51 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:ahippo, that is a lot of busy work for very little gain. You can't use stats on a game like this to provide any meaningful information. Sample size is too small, each game is different, with different roles and different players. You cannot get anything statistically significant from that analysis

Well, I don't think it's completely useless. For one thing my statistics (except for the fact that I missed Dollhouse, which I'm willing to own up to), are mathematically correct. Small sample size can absolutely be used as an argument against them, but it's undeniable that of four out of the six scum wins on this page started with scum lynches. From my time reading, I generally found that when an active townie with strong opinions was lynched, there was a lot to go off of for future days. They frequently led to town wins. In our own situation, given the lack of a night kill, I'm pretty happy with the way things turned out. We didn't learn much, yeah, but we lost basically nothing, and I'm sure as more people chime in they'll have learned a lot from the night.

The biggest thing I learned from my reading was that you're all actually pretty good at this. I may as well be a walking Dunning Kruger experiment. I got lucky my first game, thought I was smart and good at this, then carried that arrogance with me for the next few games. From then on I tended to assume people pointing out my inexperience were attacking my intelligence on a personal level and got defensive. Statistical analysis was the only thing I could think of to do that would be relevant and I pointed it at the thing that confused me the most (D1 lynches). My primary conclusion was that the more town knew D2, the more likely it was that they would win. I realize I didn't say it nearly that succinctly, or even say that specifically. But if I had no reason to trust my own instincts, the only thing I could trust was numbers. And I certainly didn't have time to look at every game in xkcdMafia history.

Gopher of Pern wrote:although it would have been fun to do!

It was! It was the first time in the game I felt I had anything of value to add. That flew back in my face really hard, but I was having fun at the time. I'd like to go and find more statistics, look at more games, find more correlations, but it seems like that's not a very popular idea.

As for today, I'm hoping we'll get some information from players who haven't chimed in yet. At this point I'm willing to claim a negative. I'm not Red Ajah. Like I said before, I'm not Yellow either. Neither of those prove much of anything IMO, but I've been accused of being Red. IIRC there were some Reds who wanted Siuan as Amyrlin and some Blues who didn't. I don't think Ajah color has much to do with alignment.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:55 am UTC

bessie wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Okay, so the Brown Ajah flip with unaligned with any faction, is that supposed to map onto independent with no anti-town tendencies, or are we migrating to a several faction with a mutual antagonist model?

That’s what we’re trying to figure out. ahippo, what’s your opinion on this?

Non-game content:
Spoiler:
I consider it correct to not capitalize the 'a' in ahippo even at the beginning of a sentence, so thanks for that.

If we take mpolo's statement as true, I think we could be facing a Black Ajah that has a recruitment instead of a night kill. Flavor-wise it's more appropriate as it was used far more than assassination in the series. If so, there are at least two, if not three Blacks right now. Regardless, that doesn't explain the PM we got from the mods/role PM for Diemo. It stated "You win when all threats to the stability of the White Tower have been eliminated and a strong leader is in place." The Black Ajah are absolutely a threat to the stability of the White Tower. Even so, that win condition implies that the leader (Amyrlin) can change. Now, whether or not some random Green raised to Amyrlin after defeating the Black Ajah counts as "strong" I couldn't tell you for certain. I would guess, probably, yes. That win condition would be satisfied, as I see it.

So one problem I have is this: Assuming there is a recruiter faction and no NK, isn't it pretty much inevitable that they win? Let's imagine we were set up as one recruiter and eleven townies. If we didn't get the recruiter N1 (which we didn't), even if we knew who the original recruiter was, there would always be one more than we could lynch for a day. As far as I see it, there are three possibilities:

1. Black Ajah can't recruit and they just got blocked on their night kill.
2. There is some vigilante kill that can even the odds against the recruiter.
3. Killing the original recruiter kills all recruitment. (Flavor tells me Myrddraal aren't players and aren't picky for new recruits, so I rather doubt this one.)

If you can think of another, I'm open to the idea. I'll be spending the next twenty-four hours looking at individuals and trying to come up with opinions on them. I can't guarantee a post within that timeframe, but I'll be online. I'm hoping for the rest to join in (especially matt69 because of double voting power). I'm interested to hear what they have to say.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:34 am UTC

Sorry, here. Things got busy. I don't plan on leaving the forum until I've posted real content.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:46 am UTC

I want to start off with a quick clarification:
bessie wrote:Why a roleblocker? Seems odd to me that he didn’t mention a doctor

I was using the term roleblocker to refer to any role that could have blocked the night kill, including doctor. Sorry for the confusion.

It seems like the primary reason I'm leading in the votals is because of my D1 post. I feel like I've given a fairly good explanation of why I thought it was a good idea at the time. Sabrar and Madge are chalking it up to my inexperience. I don't think there's much I can do at this point to change minds, but if there's something, I'll try.

I'm not going to do a full town-to-scum list. Instead I'm going to find find quotes that stick out to me in some way and describe why. Not every player is going to be on this list. These aren't in any particular order, chronologically or otherwise. I'll do my best not to jump to any conclusion that is contradicted by a later post from the player I'm quoting. Ready? Let's begin!

matt96 wrote:Given that I've already shown a power and earlier ajah power speculation, it should come as no surprise that my ajah is grey.

I think putting a double vote in the hands of scum would be too strong. Flavor accurate. Scum might be able to manipulate others' votes, but a personal double vote feels off to me. I'm inclined to think he's town.

SirGabriel wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:Do you have any evidence that the note is telling the truth?
That is such a strange question. How could mpolo have evidence of that, unless he is Black Ajah or was recruited by them, in which case he obviously won't admit it.

It's possible that mpolo received more relevant information that he has chosen not to share yet, so I just wanted to double check.
What are the chances that a town-aligned player could know the information contained in the note and anonymously tell someone about it this early in the game? I think it's more likely that the note is a hoax send by either the mafia or an independent.

If that's true, why wouldn't someone have come out by now to claim they were the one to block the kill, either as doctor or especially as roleblocker? I highly doubt there would have been a counter-claim, and in either situation we get strong information. That's what I would have done if I were in that situation. Scum withholding their kill is highly unlikely to my mind. I believe he received the note and there was a player who has had this information from the start. It's possible, still, that mpolo is scum and he didn't want to appear scummy to the sender and he told us about it so he didn't have someone claiming they sent him something important and he never brought it up. It's even possible we have a WoT 12: TGS Spoilers
Spoiler:
Verin Mathwin
situation where there's a mole in the Black Ajah. I tend to believe the note, and SirGabriel's dismissal of it is concerning.

Sabrar also wrote:Didn't it occur to you that moody just wanted to see what information others might have about the setup, without revealing anything about himself? If he has the same 'unaligned' alignment and win-con as Diemo did then he would have no info about the rest of the factions.

That's a possibility, sure, but why should that let him/Madge off the hook? Anyone could claim it's possible I was too inexperienced to realize what I was doing D1, but that doesn't seem to be convincing anyone that I'm not suspicious. moody could have easily been seeking information on this plurality town faction that comes up 'unaligned' in the role PM. Sabrar put moody/Madge at slightly townie. I disagree, and I think it implicates you as well. Which leads me to...

Madge wrote:Like, no scum would do something that monumentally scummy, would they?

I think it's going to reflect well on Madge to have said this when I get lynched and it turns out I'm not Black Ajah. Considering I bottom out a lot of lists, it's a little odd she thinks my D1 post makes me less likely to be scum. If there's an obvious D2 target like me, scum can use the fact that they know I'm not Black Ajah to appear townie when everyone sees the flip. I guess this is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" sort of accusation. Maybe she can clear up what she thinks moody was trying to say.

bessie wrote:Welcome back ahippo and JudeMorrigan!

bessie also wrote:ahippo, I think that your analysis is quite interesting, and I think that’s great that you’re trying to compile those statistics.

bessie also wrote:And I for one am glad that you decided to sign up.

Is bessie usually this nice? I'm willing to accept that these might be genuine acts of kindness not related to her role. I'm not convinced they aren't ploys to get me to like her. That dog avatar is playing some mind games with me.

mpolo wrote:there are likely townies with no Ajah (Min, Warders).

I doubt this, unless mpolo has some information that I don't. The flavor suggests pretty hard that we're all full Aes Sedai investigating the Black Ajah in a private space. Myrddraal, warders, or Min feel out of place for the central conflict of this game. ATM I'm not inclined to think mpolo is scummy, but I think he's wrong about this.

This one's not particularly relevant to my thoughts on the player's content, but...
JudeMorrigan wrote: I've really struggled to find a productive voice for myself in the game of mafia. All I can say is that I *am* trying.

One of the main reasons I joined this game (the other being bessie's post asking for two more players to sign up) is that I love the Wheel of Time. I saw an opportunity for some flavor inspired silliness and I took it.

Preach.

Ultimately, the two I'm most suspicious of right now are Sabar and Madge. Whether or not I vote for either will depend on how they respond

I'll end with a claim. Not my Ajah, but my power. I have the ability to read weaves. N2, I can read what powers were used on my target N1. Assuming I survive the day, I'm open to suggestions on whom I should target with this ability.

Damn you, Sabrar, for making me rewrite my thoughts on you from that post you ninja'd me on.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:50 am UTC

I request an extension of the deadline by twelve hours.
I doubt I'm going to make it to D3, but I'd like to get in a bit more before I go, especially in response to my last post.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:49 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
ahippo wrote:If that's true, why wouldn't someone have come out by now to claim they were the one to block the kill, either as doctor or especially as roleblocker?
Because they can't be sure that they were the reason the NK failed.

Like I said, I'd personally be quick to claim. Maybe it's because I don't know what would work, but I still feel it'd be a strong choice.

Sabrar wrote:If my described scenario is correct, wouldn't that make moody automatically town and thereby 'letting him off the hook'?

It would, assuming it's correct. I have no reason to believe it's correct. It's just one possibility that I consider unlikely.

Sabrar wrote:I also appreciate if people spell my name correctly.

Sorry. No harm meant by it.

Sabrar wrote:So my understanding is that you find us scummy primarily because we both think that scum just wouldn't do what you did at the end of D1. Is this correct?

My assumption is that you're lying about thinking that what I did D1 is townie because it's so scummy. Everyone else seems to think what I did was scummy. When it turns up I'm not Black Ajah, you'll be able to point and say "I told you so."

Sabrar wrote:
ahippo wrote:Damn you, Sabrar, for making me rewrite my thoughts on you from that post you ninja'd me on.
What is this referring to? I see no reference to it in your analysis.

There's no reference to what I rewrote because I rewrote it before I posted. I thought you were surprised by Diemo's role PM originally, then rewrote my thoughts when you clarified so as not to contradict myself from earlier in the post when I said
I'll do my best not to jump to any conclusion that is contradicted by a later post from the player I'm quoting.


mpolo wrote:he gives a vibe of being certain about things that we can't as a group be certain of.

Please elaborate. I admit that I'm working off of assumptions, but who isn't? What do you think I'm certain of?

Gopher of Pern wrote:The primary reason you are leading the votals is not due to the day 1 post, but due to the utter lack of scum hunting and opinions about other players

That's definitely a part of it, but at this point I have more opinions on other players than matt96 does, so why me and not him?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:53 am UTC

EBWOP:
I thought you were surprised by Diemo's role PM win condition originally,

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:42 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I have no idea what you are looking for here, please clarify.

I think I wrote it in a way that was unclear. Given that moody was just fishing for information, then yes he was, and Madge is town. When I said "why should that let him off the hook?" I was referring to the fact that it is not a certainty. It's possible moody had the same win condition as Diemo. I don't believe he did.

Sabrar wrote:I also think that what you did was scummy, it's just that I have a different opinion about it. If you think that is scummy, it's your prerogative.

You're not wrong about what I did. It truly was out of inexperience and confusion. I just think you probably knew I wasn't Black Ajah, so you felt free to say so to gain credit when I'm inevitably lynched.

Sabrar wrote:
ahippo wrote:I have more opinions on other players than matt96 does, so why me and not him?
Because most people think like you do and consider a scum with double-vote impossible (or just very unlikely).
[/quote]
You're not voting for me, though. GoP's rationale was that I haven't done any scum-hunting. I haven't seen him express that he believes matt96 to be town, or at least not scum. It's possible I just missed it, though. It would be far from the first mistake I've made this game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:15 pm UTC

I couldn't get on the forum for the one moment I could find to get online. I expected to be in sweet-sweet spoiler land by now, but I'll take the opportunity that's given to me.

bessie wrote:Target is bulletproof.
Target is a commuter.
Delayed kill (poison).
And throw a redirector in there if you really want a mess.

I admit, I just didn't think of these. They're a lot less common and didn't come to mind.

As for all the other ones, it's not about claiming a specific power. It's about claiming that you (in the abstract sense, not bessie) were the one to stop the night kill. That was what I was referring to when I said there probably wouldn't have been a counter-claim. It would obviously raise questions that would lead to the claimant having to reveal more. Even so with everything we know, is it truly more likely that the night kill was blocked in some fashion, than having a recruiting Black Ajah? I haven't seen any reason to believe so. I feel like you keep moving the goal posts on me for this idea.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:49 am UTC

bessie wrote:Djehutynakht: I’m a roleblocker. I must have prevented the kill. Vytron is scum.
SDK: Great! Let’s lynch him.
Lawrencelot: Wait, I’m a doctor. I protected ConMan. Maybe I prevented the kill.
Suzaku: Maybe you’re both wrong. I’m bulletproof. What if I was the target?
kalira: I’m not sure we should lynch Vytron without more proof.
Misnomer: Vytron’s the best candidate, let’s lynch him and see what happens tonight.
Vytron: OK fine. Vote: Vytron

[Later in scum chat...]

kalira (wiping a tear from her eye); It’s…it’s like Christmas.
SDK: So which of them would you like to pick off first?

You've been making way more assumptions than I ever did. If a game did have that much town, anti-NK roles it would be horrifically imbalanced. I think it's highly unlikely for there to be more than one person who had a reason to claim, thus there would probably be no counter-claim. I feel like you and Sabrar have been saying something along the lines of "well it's possible that ahippo is wrong, so he probably is." Seriously? There could be one serial killer Gray Man and the rest of us are all just futzing about trying to find him with a bunch of different ways to stop the kill.
But probably not.
There could be a buncha townie anti-night-kill roles that could possibly counter-claim responsibilty
But probably not.
There could be some independent Kin (see wiki The Kin for context) faction that needs a specific player to be raised Amyrlin so they can bring the Kin back into the White Tower.
But probably not.

bessie has been adamant in her refutations of my arguments that Black Ajah are recruiters. She might have reason to deny it. I think she is going to replace Sabrar on my list of people I'm willing to vote for. If someone has been recruited by the Black Ajah, my money right now is on bessie. Also, Madge has posted exactly once. Why am I getting called out for lack of content now?

Open question here: Do we have any solid reason to believe scum NK was blocked or withheld? If not, is there a strong reason to disbelieve that Black Ajah are recruiters? (And before you ask, yes, we have reason to believe Black Ajah are recruiters).

JudeMorrigan wrote:I keep writing things like "I'd still rather take out a black" and realizing how terrible it would sound taken out of context

Heheh. I've been doing the same thing.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:01 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:"It's possible that ahippo is wrong and there is no way to determine (without full-claims) what the real situation is so I'm erring on the side of caution."

ahippo wrote:Do we have any solid reason to believe scum NK was blocked or withheld? If not, is there a strong reason to disbelieve that Black Ajah are recruiters? (And before you ask, yes, we have reason to believe Black Ajah are recruiters).

If you're going to claim that the side of caution is to assume the Black Ajah have a night kill, but it didn't go through for one reason or another, I'd like to see any evidence of this. Otherwise, it's more realistic to assume the information we do have is true, or at least close to true. If you can't produce any evidence, I have no reason to change my opinion.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:30 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:You started the discussion with "if we have Doctor/Roleblocker they should claim".

This is just not true. I said that I believe it would be helpful for town to know this, assuming it happened. And if I were in that position I would have claimed. And given that nobody has done so, it's unlikely that it happened at all. Therefore I doubt any night kill was blocked. You've said you disagree with this idea, because you think it's better not to claim in this situation. That's valid.

Sabrar wrote:What evidence do I need to produce in your opinion?

Perhaps evidence is the wrong word. Evidence implies knowledge. Whether you have that knowledge or not is irrelevant, if you're not willing to share it for any reason. So what reasoning do you have to say that it is more likely that the Black Ajah night-kill didn't go through, and that what has been proposed about the Black Ajah being recruiters is to be disbelieved?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:40 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Scenario 1: Black Ajah has night-kill, it was blocked somehow.
Should Doctor claim? No. Roleblock might have been effective, revealing Doc to scum is very bad.
Should Roleblocker claim? No. Doc might have been effective.

It's that might that doesn't work for me. Yes, that's possible, but very unlikely. If you're a doctor and you wake up to find no night kill, you've got a pretty good reason to believe you did it right. And again, it's more a matter of opinion whether it would be the right thing to do to claim.

Sabrar wrote:Scenario 2: Black Ajah has no night-kill.
Should Doctor claim? Hell no.(If Doctor exists we can assume that there is at least 1 NK controlled by scum in the game, so this scenario is less likely).
Should Roleblocker claim? Hell no. Again, it would reveal Town PR for absolutely no gain.

Why are you assuming that any doctor would exist in that setup? I'm not. My assumption is that there is no doctor because there is no consistent scum night kill. Having a designated doctor to stop a serial killer is super weird, to me, plus there's no reason to believe in a serial killer at all. And if there is a roleblocker, why would they assume they weren't the cause of the lack of night kill? Setups with no night kill are extremely rare and it's unreasonable to assume that you're in one until you have reason to believe you are. If there were a roleblocker who didn't share that information, it would leave town very in the dark and much more likely to lynch another townie, leading to a much worse scenario D3.

Again, that's just a matter of opinion. We could argue simulated situations back and forth all day on whether or not it's appropriate for someone to claim they believe they blocked a kill.

I'm going to ask as bluntly as possible: What percentage of likelihood do you believe the Black Ajah had a kill N1 that didn't go through for some reason, vs. What percentage of likelihood do you believe the Black Ajah did not have a kill N1? I'm at 15/85 respectively. And if the former is less than the latter, why spend all this time pointing out the situations I could potentially be wrong instead of agreeing, even tentatively, with my proposal?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:56 am UTC

This was certainly unexpected.

SirGabriel is lying. I'm not one of his supporters. In fact, JudeMorrigan nailed it D1. I'm an Elaida supporter. I bet that explains a lot for everyone. For what it's worth, bessie, I did think you were town D1. Now I'm not so sure. Given the likelihood of my own lynching, you'll see that I'm telling the truth now. This game is a battle of recruiters, and I'm sorry to my fellow Elaida supporters that I played so poorly. SirGabriel likely gave away the way that the Black Ajah recruit, since it's the way that we do, and with my lynching the Elaida crew won't be recruiting tonight.

My guess is that SirGabriel is one of the Black Ajah. With his post, he put a huge pressure on me today. Tonight, they're probably going to recruit matt96 for his double vote. From there, it's nearly impossible for them to lose. It was a really strong play, since it seemed like I might not be lynched today before then. I'll fight it in the only way I have.

Vote: SirGabriel

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:31 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:why in hell would SirGabriel defend you if your lynch would be convenient for him?

Simple. His "defense" turned much of the attention back towards me when the votals could have easily gone another way. Especially if my fellow Elaida supporters changed their votes at the right time. With my death, the Black Ajah can be assured another recruitment tonight.

Sabrar wrote:why do you think matt96 wasn't already recruited N1?

Maybe he was, but he barely contributed D1 and he revealed his power late enough that it's possible they just missed it. I did. Either way, the Black Ajah are probably going to have five votes D3, which is pretty scary, unless we lynch one today.

Sabrar wrote:Your post just does not make any sense, except if you're really trying to get lynched because SirGabriel is the recruiter and you're afraid people would switch to him.

I think you'll find from my role PM that if SirGabriel is the recruiter for my faction it would be pretty bad for him if I die. I assure you it won't be. I'm not expecting Elaida to out herself for my own sake in the course of the next few hours, or ever.

Rest assured, I'd always rather have real Aes Sedai in charge of the White Tower, no matter how bad they are, than some bleeding Myrddraal puppet darkfriends. The Black Ajah do exist, and I hope you'll fight against them. But the Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:37 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote: Madge

AACH! I was hoping you'd let me take the fall or at least sew enough confusion to give us the possibility to have a last minute vote change or something. After mpolo unvoted me I thought we had a chance to change the narrative. We don't have a night chat, so we have no way of discussing this beforehand. I mean, it seemed pretty obvious I was gonna get lynched anyway today. When it came up I was part of Elaida's faction, you would have been super implicated. Especially if I went along with your story about you being Siuan, and I doubt that story would have saved me. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm a pretty bad mafia player.

I'm about to be hammered, so no reason not to come clean. So SirGabriel, real quick, you didn't mean what you said about there being no Black Ajah, right? Like, I'm still 99% sure they're here, and recruiters too. If anyone reading this is still unaligned, you can decide which of us to chose tomorrow. For today, if we don't lynch Black Ajah, we're in big trouble.

I never got a chance to use my power, assuming I'm about to get lynched, so unfortunately I don't have any information I haven't shared. With my last breath I spit in the Dark One's eye. Good luck friends. Don't let the White Tower fall.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:54 pm UTC

Dammit.

Vote: ahippo

His power is more useful than mine. If you're unaligned or a Siuan supporter, lynch me instead. Siuan supporters will almost unquestionably lose if you spend D3 lynching SirGabriel, and he can help you find Black Ajah.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:54 pm UTC

EBWOP:

Unvote
Vote: ahippo

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

Postby ahippo » Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:32 am UTC

Great work guys! I think dimochka was the true hero of the Elaida faction. I'm amazed that what happened on D2 didn't completely destroy any chance we had. It might have even helped to get it all out there? Maybe I'm reaching. I want to feel not useless.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (Pre-game)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:33 am UTC

Confirm.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:12 am UTC

Welcome back ahippo and JudeMorrigan!

Ok, let’s see. I don’t always get to post in the first page. Games always seem to start up when I’m at work and by the time I get home I’m usually the last one to post. I guess I’ll start with setup speculation:

2 power mafia
1 true independent
1 independent that is either pro-town or pro-mafia
1 independent recruiter
7 power town, of which there are 1-2 players that think they’re town but can be recruited

ahippo wrote:So it seems likely that there is more than one anti-town faction, or maybe one anti-town one neutral. Obviously, it's possible for the Amyrlin to die or get deposed so there's probably a mechanic to instate another one.
So, how is this obvious from the opening flavor? I also have more than one anti-town faction in my setup spec, but mine is just speculation. You seem more certain.

I don’t random vote, when I place a vote it will be serious. It seems a little too early to place a serious vote, so instead I will do this:

FoS dimochka

1. For posting game content during the confirmation phase. While this was not specifically prohibited in the opening post, it’s going against tradition to post game content until the mod officially starts the game.
2. The militant atheist is one of the most annoying roles ever invented. If you are really a militant atheist, I would like to see you removed from the game. The only ways to do this are to lynch you or the mod, and either way is a waste of the town’s lynch, making this a very non-pro-town role. But if we don’t get rid of you, town can never trust that you will be playing on our side.
3. You might really be scum, and your claim is a distraction, so that we waste half a day discussing the annoyingness of this role instead of scum hunting.

SirGabriel, how about posting some content? Something more than letting us know you read the signup thread.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 17, 2017 4:40 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote: it seems like bessie is fixating excessively on one little joke.
1. How is this different from how I usually play?
2. At the time you made this post, dimochka had not yet posted and claimed it was a joke.

mpolo wrote:I'm pretty sure that bessie's vote was a joke.
My FoS was serious, which is why it was an FoS and not a vote.

dimochka wrote:For what it's worth, I would never post any remotely relevant content in the confirmation phase, as I assume that it's reserved for confirmation only. However, when I get back to this after work, I will consider people's reactions to my joke. I already have some thoughts around it... :twisted:

Double FoS dimochka.

Everything posted in the game thread is game content. Sometimes it is possible to catch scum based on their confirmation post.

Gopher of Pern wrote:bessie, what makes you think recruiter?

Sabrar wrote:Why do you think that only 1-2 townies can get recruited?
It’s my initial setup spec. I had to start somewhere. And the setup does not rule it out. Gopher of Pern, what makes you think we don’t have a recruiter?

Can the mod post the votals please?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:40 pm UTC

vote: dimochka

dimochka wrote:So fmpov you are trying to nitpick something that I don't see to be relevant to the game (and to be fair I have 0 flavor knowledge so I didn't even know there was a creator and/or someone interacting with him).
Maybe, but it was page 1. I do not yet know what is/is not relevant to the game, so I’m not writing off any content yet. And you and I may have different ideas about what we believe is relevant. For example, I would normally think that all this flavor discussion is irrelevant to the game, and that it’s just something to get us talking on D1. But quite honestly, I’m not so sure about this game. The previous Wheel of Time game drew heavily on the flavor, so much that I think the game itself was guided a bit too much by the flavor. And I too am flavor blind (other than what I read on the internet), so I was not interpreting your confirmation post in terms of Wheel of Time flavor, but just as a mafia game post.

dimochka wrote:From my experience, I've seen scum do exactly what you're doing too many times.
And you’ve seen me do it before as town.

dimochka wrote:For the rest of the players - I don't plan to bring up the militant atheist idea again, so either lynch me for it or I'd prefer we don't waste time further discussing it. If you think I'm scummy for posting about it, that's fine, but I don't want to derail discussing towards "should we or should we not vote for the mod."
There is no militant atheist in the game. dimochka’s vote did not show up in the votals.

SirGabriel wrote:2. He didn't have to. Nobody's going to post a serious vote in their confirmation post.
This is not about whether or not dimochka placed a serious vote in his confirmation post. FoS SirGabriel.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Nice dodging of the question though.
I answered your question. I wouldn’t mind discussing it more after others have the opportunity to contribute to the discussion. How about sharing your setup speculation?

JudeMorrigan wrote:Beyond that, I'm generally concerned with the specificity of somewhat unusual roles in Bessie's setup speculation.
How about sharing your setup speculation?

matt96, how about sharing your setup speculation? Or your opinions on players? Opinion on mafia? Something not from Wikipedia?

Diemo, how’s life?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:02 am UTC

This will be quick. My husband has a gig tonight, but I’ll try to read and respond to the rest of today’s content tonight if I don’t get home too late.

moody7277 wrote:Her first part looks like she's getting into Poe's law territory; either the joke is so obvious you don't need clarification or the lack of clarification makes you take it seriously.
I had to google Poe’s Law and I don’t want TV Tropes to suck up the 20 minutes I have before I need to leave. So I’ll get back to this after I figure out if I’m being dissed. :)

moody7277 wrote:As to the early game scum outing that she links to, these are both related to PM wording gambits that I abhor.
Yes but this isn’t about anyone’s PM. Or even their vote. This is about what qualifies as game content. So moody, do you think that anything posted in the game thread (barring special cases like real life notifications and things posted in spoilers) is fair game for discussion? Or do you think that some things don’t count? Like, should I be able to say “Oh just ignore what I said in my first post, I wasn’t really playing yet”?

moody7277 wrote:I figured that she'd point out some of SDK's work in that area, but maybe she didn't because she doesn't have the same reputation.
I feel uneasy about using other people as examples because I don’t want to misinterpret their intent, or drag them into a game they’re not even playing. I know what I was thinking so I know I can use myself as an example. I never know what SDK is thinking. And yeah, read any of SDK’s games. And no, I don’t know how he does it.

moody7277 wrote:-OMGUS vote from bessie, with some comments that seem to be her trying to get past it.
I’m seriously confused as to why you think this is an OMGUS vote? Did I really not give any previous indication that I was suspicious of dimochka? Did it really appear that the only reason I voted for him is that he voted for me?

Sorry I need to leave now. I’ll get to the rest later.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:59 pm UTC

I don’t have time for a proper post right now, but I do want to respond to this one comment because it has me pissed.
Sabrar wrote:- I remember that she made a comment about playing aggressively when she didn't fear dying during the night (Secret Santa 2016 - Commuter)

First of all, that’s not what I said. This is what I said.
bessie wrote: I’ve discovered that I can be quite an ass when I’m not worried about dying.

From the rest of your post, it looks like you interpreted my remark as “bessie was not worried about dying during the night because she was immune to the NK”. I think it’s wrong of you to misquote something I said, attach your interpretation of the intent of the remark, and then present it as something I said. You did label the spoiler as your thought process, but you should either say “this is what I think bessie meant” or just label it as your speculation.

Or you could just ask me what I meant. You would have gotten the truthful response as to why I didn’t fear dying in that game. Besides the reason you gave, there were two more.
1. My power was not something that was going to help town catch scum. I didn’t care if I was NKed. Better me than a watcher or cop.
2. My win condition did not require me to be alive at the end of the game. I said this in the game thread. Here. Why didn't you point that out too when you were building your case against me?

And if any of you think this is on overreaction on my part, and I am deliberately trying to cause a distraction, I think you need to read the post 7 posts above this one. The one where I said I was cautious about using other people as examples because I don’t want to misinterpret their intent. And then it happened to me.


And since I'm here anyway:

If dimochka's vote in his first post had been a vote for a player in this game, would it have shown up in the votals?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:12 am UTC

All right, where did I leave off?
SirGabriel wrote:You implied that it mattered whether dimochka's vote was serious, then FoSed me because, in response to that post, I also implied that it mattered whether dimochka's vote was serious. The only explanation I can come up with is you're scum who drew too much attention to yourself, then panicked and tried a bit too hard to divert that attention elsewhere.
You claimed it was a joke. I said well how can you be sure when dimochka hadn’t even posted yet. And I think that I’ve made it clear this is not about the vote or the seriousness of it.

And yeah, it appears I’ve been exceptionally good at diverting attention away from myself this game.

moody7277 wrote:What is in the thread is obviously open for discussion. There have been a couple of times in which oblique references to outside information were used to game the game (you were involved in one of these), and the results were something I was not happy with.

I honestly don’t know what game you’re referring to here, or when I may have wrongly used outside information. Because I do try not to drag stuff that happened in other games into the current one, unless it’s posted as a response to something someone else brought up. Or unless it’s about me specifically. If I do it to other players it’s usually a general meta read, like so-and-so likes to use a lot of big words as town! Or so-and-so is lurky as scum! I mean, I really try not to say stuff like “well, in this specific game this specific player voted in this specific way, and they were scum, so they’re obviously scum now” as a sole basis for a judgement. Oh wait is this about jimbob and Secret Santa? Ok I did it there. Anyway, this is turning into a distraction so I’ll drop it but moody, if you want to discuss this after the game is over, I’d really like to know if you think I may have skirted the rules, because that’s not the type of player I’m trying to be.

I may as well go here next:
bessie wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Her first part looks like she's getting into Poe's law territory; either the joke is so obvious you don't need clarification or the lack of clarification makes you take it seriously.
I had to google Poe’s Law and I don’t want TV Tropes to suck up the 20 minutes I have before I need to leave. So I’ll get back to this after I figure out if I’m being dissed. :)
I got sucked into the TV Tropes rabbit hole, and I think you may have been uncomfortably on the mark about me. Because I’m not still not sure if you were joking, irritated, inferring I was scum, inferring I was dense, being sarcastic, being serious, etc. (and bessie earns yet another x on the DSM checklist….)

moody7277 wrote: I was just curious as to why you waited until dimochka actually voted you to make your vote. I've normally come to think of any immediate counter-vote as an OMGUS; perhaps I should narrow my definition?
Because I didn’t want to end the random voting stage before everyone had a chance to post. I never joke vote, but others enjoy it. And it does give us some content to analyze later.


@Sabrar
Spoiler:
I’m sorry. I had no right to say that the way I did. It was an appalling display of bad form on my part. This is a game, and we’re all here to have fun. I could have made my point without being so rude. And you can point out if I’m being an ass! I will probably even agree with you. What I don’t like is being misquoted or having my words misinterpreted and used against me. I’m good with having my actual words and intent used against me.

Now that that’s out of the way, let me see what else I need to address in Sabrar’s post.

Sabrar wrote:- she's going after dimochka hard due to an obvious joke
What I find obvious is obviously not so obvious.

Sabrar wrote:One interesting thing I found in that last game:
bessie wrote:Is the militant atheist a real role? I always thought that was a joke because I never understood how you could actually have one in a game.
There was a reply to it but bessie didn't acknowledge that in the thread as it was irrelevant to the game.
Oh. What I got from SPACKlick’s and Vytron’s replies was that it was a real role, and they had played games that either contained this role, or where this role was common enough to be seriously considered as being in the game. And we have had more less-common roles around here lately.

Sabrar wrote:- However this is clearly over the top:
bessie wrote:There is no militant atheist in the game. dimochka’s vote did not show up in the votals.
At that point of the game D1 (and thereby the game itself) didn't even start, so any vote made during confimation phase would definitely not be included in the votals. To make a point specifically about that seems like overkill and not willing to let go.
You have me there. I thought dimochka’s vote was not counted because it was not valid (as in content not timing), which may still be the case. But now jimbob’s confirmed that it wouldn’t get counted anyway because he didn’t count votes made during the confirmation phase. And so goes part of my argument for what counts as game content.

JudeMorrigan, I’m not following your case on ahippo but I’m planning on doing a little more flavor research before you post again, and maybe I will have a relevant question for you (and good luck at your competition tomorrow!).

And…I’ve been typing for two hours. I’ll pick up with ahippo’s post in a little while.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:20 pm UTC

When I first skimmed mpolo’s latest post my first thought was to dismiss it as just another active-lurking-flavor discussion post, but upon reflection I found it quite helpful. A few days ago I asked someone at work to help me out a little with the flavor, so what the heck I’ll post what I think. Here’s my contribution to the flavor/setup discussion. Correct me if I get the flavor wrong.

Suian Sanche is good, and remains good, throughout the whole series. But she made a mistake in hiding what she knew about Rand from the other Aes Sedai, and left an opening for others to depose her. Her supporters can be of any color except Red, and are good, even when they are the rebels. This is probably the town faction.

Elaida a’Roihan is Red Ajah, powerful, egotistical, and wants to be the Amyrlin. She uses Suian Sanche’s mistakes as an opportunity to depose her. But Elaida is not Black and never becomes Black (she was merely manipulated by them). Elaida and her supporters can be any color except Blue, and they’re not necessarily bad, they just have a differing opinion as to what is best for the Tower. They are probably not the mafia faction, and could be an anti-town or anti-mafia faction, or truly independent of either.

The Black Ajah can be any color. And they’re definitely bad. Mafia.

And now that I’ve reread the latest flavor post in a different light, does anyone know who this is? Is there a character that has green hair? By the time I get to ask someone who might know, D1 will be over.
kalira wrote:You look up to see a novice in white as she turns the corner away from you. She looks to be on a mission from the Creator himself and appears to take no notice of your gathering -- you surmise that some Aes Sedai has sent her to look for a book and put the fear of the Mistress of Novices into her. But... you could swear that her hair was green and in buns that almost look like ears on top of her head. What a strange child.


Now back to the game.
ahippo wrote:What scum-hunting strategies have worked for you in the past?
None. I’m not a good scum hunter. I can’t get a scummy read by analyzing someone’s behavior and build a case against them. I just look for technical things that are wrong with their posts, and I tend to tunnel. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. For examples of both see Secret Santa 2016.

ahippo wrote:Do you generally prefer to act based on assumptions then change if your assumptions prove wrong, or wait until you're confident?
I used to wait. And then I regretted that I didn’t post more often. It’s less fun for everyone if we all sit around waiting to see what others are going to do because we’re afraid to stick our necks out. And I don’t want to be an observer; I want to be part of the game. Of course, this strategy does involve some risk. Like how I’m now leading the votals.

ahippo wrote:When do you think it's appropriate for a townie to claim their role?
I actually think townies tend to overclaim to avoid the lynch, but I understand why. Claim only when the information can only help town more than scum.

ahippo wrote:If you were an Aes Sedai, which Ajah would you pick?
I didn’t do too much in depth research on the different ajahs, but maybe the White (INTJ?).

Diemo wrote:First thing that I have noticed is that there is a lot of people are picking on dimochka. Three people voting him for a joke vote at the start? Seems like a lot.
I think I’m the only one picking on dimochka. Everyone else is defending him. Two of those votes were jokes, mine was serious. And the reason wasn’t for the militant atheist remark in itself. It was because dimochka brushed off something he said by using the excuse that anything posted in the confirmation stage isn’t relevant game content. I believe that if you post something in thread (not counting real life announcements etc), it’s fair to consider it part of the game. You don’t get to pick out something and later say ignore that, I wasn’t really playing (as dimochka did). What’s to keep scum from doing that whenever they make a slip? And where are the boundaries? You don’t have to agree with me, but FoS everyone that has not understood the point that I am trying to make. Because I think some of you secretly understand me perfectly. I will FoS you individually when I get around to making my list.

Diemo wrote:But I like lynching the mod. (I played a game once where we insisted on lynching the mod despite the mod telling us that lynching him was impossible - good times :) )
Interesting. The alleged proof of my scumminess is that I should have known that this role is never actually used in any games.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Don't have long to post, but in response to your question Sabrar, bessie simply stated that they needed to start somewhere. That is not a reason for specifically including a recruiter. Other people have responded with what the mod said (about changing alignments), which gives more reason to, but bessie did not at the time. Hence why I thought they were dodging the question.
I don’t agree. What is an acceptable seup spec? I guess I could have said this:
JudeMorrigan wrote:Had I made any setup speculation early, it would have been something like 7-3-1-1 with a sk purely because it seems like most games here have one and maybe some sort of a survivor-ish role. That may be scum heavy - I don't really have a good feel for what makes a balanced game numbers-wise.
Someone presents almost this exact same setup spec with these exact same reasons in every game. It’s not wrong to do so, it’s safe and gives no hints as to the guesser’s alignment, but where does it get us? This setup and reasons are used by players so often because it is usually very accurate. That’s why no one is talking about JudeMorrigan’s setup spec. I believe my setup spec may be on the close limit of balance and gameplay, but I don’t see it as impossible or even completely totally unreasonable. And I really didn’t feel I needed to quote all the places the mod said that a player’s alignment/win condition could change.

Now about the setup spec itself, and the possibility of a recruiter, that’s a guess.
bessie wrote: How about sharing your setup speculation?


I'm working on my town-scum list now. It would be nice if I had some more content to work with.

Unvote.

Ninja'd by Sabrar.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I believe that just describes kalira's avatar and has no actual game-related content.

...oh fucking hell...

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:04 pm UTC

First of all congratulations JudeMorrigan, on earning a place on the podium in your competition!

JudeMorrigan wrote:@bessie - yeah, the incredible banality of my setup spec was kind of my point. I completely understand the point of setup spec in a game like BttF or Dr Who where we know there are fundamentally funky things going on in the game. I'm not sure I understand the point of it in a game where you don't have that level of weirdness. You either get completely trivial speculation like I offered or have to wonder *why* someone's speculating something out of the ordinary.
First of all, there was nothing wrong with your setup spec or with providing it. At least you responded to my request for content (I asked Gopher of Pern twice for his setup spec and nothing). It’s pretty accurate for most games. But why don’t you think there’s any level of weirdness in this game?


I kinda want to reply to Gopher of Pern's latest post, but I want to think it through a little. I'm not ignoring you, I just don't want to delay posting the rest of this because deadline is in 22 hours.


Sabrar wrote:This looks like he is unsure about who his enemies are, which indicates Town. Eagerly awaiting more content.
It looks to me like you are trying really hard to find a reason to stick the town label on Carlington.



Alphabetical player list:

ahippo – Intro post where he lets us know in advance he’s not a great player and not to expect much, some setup spec, oh and he’s going to be active. Next post is more setup spec based on flavor. Third post setup/flavor spec, and an alleged joke that JudeMorrigan is reading as a scum slip. His last post has some discussion questions, and he manages to remind us a couple of places in this post that he is not a good scum hunter. I guess he didn’t want anyone to forget that. I don’t see any player analysis or scum hunting, but I do see a lot of excuses for not providing any. Hasn’t posted for a few days.

Carlington – First post, has RL issues flavor/setup spec. Second post, 3 sentences explaining that he’s been too busy to read the thread. So, zero real content, but oddly enough content for Sabrar to label him town.

Diemo – One post, flavor/setup spec. His differs from others in that he doesn’t quickly jump on the safe Black Ajah=mafia setup that everyone else is willing to go along with.

dimochka – Made a joke in his confirmation post, whatever. But then tried to dismiss it later by saying confirmation posts don’t count as relevant content. Votes for me for a valid reason. Goes along with the Black Ajah=mafia crowd, and offers no alternatives for discussion. Finally makes a post with some content. And it’s a pretty good post, he has more content in that one post than some people have in the entire thread. Unfortunately promises of more content have not yet materialized.

Gopher of Pern – Read a little flavor. I think he was the first to suggest the Black Ajah are the mafia. And he questioned my setup spec, and why I put a recruiter in my spec. Two additional posts on the same subject, the only subject he has discussed up to that point, but accuses me of dodging questions in both. Finally a player analysis (complete) which is a little terse but the forum ate his original post (reasonable excuse, we’ve all been there, but unfortunately makes this a more difficult read). He votes for me and gives reasons to back up his vote, so I consider this a valid vote even if I obviously don’t agree with it.

JudeMorrigan – Intro post, newbie. Picks up on a mistake in ahippo’s “joke” which he interprets as a scum slip. Some flavor info. Concerned with my setup spec; suspects bessie knows something more than she is letting on. Gut feeling scum is maintaining a low profile (agree). Revisits bessie suspicion in his next post, along with a nice safe setup spec. Posts a town-scum list, nothing particularly stands out to me except the part on ahippo. Latest post, see my reaction above.

matt96 – Fluff. Wait, finally posted some content with one day left in the game. Answers ahippo’s questions. More on flavor/setup spec. Mentions me by name (the only player he has mentioned by name). Maybe he will post some reads on other players in time for it to be useful.

moody7277 – Flavor/setup. Second post is dimochka/bessie reactions. His third post I’ve analyzed in depth. Player reads list, ordered, but doesn’t quite want to call anyone scum (even left himself an out with bessie). Unfortunately nothing for a couple days, but still he is near the top of the list of players who have posted actual content.

mpolo – Flavor info. Flavor/setup spec. Flavor. Remark on dimochka/bessie interaction, but no analysis or conclusion. Answers ahippo’s questions. Long post trying to extrapolate a reasonable mafia game setup from the flavor. A lot of words. And finally, one last post discussing flavor/setup. Number of player mentions by name in his posts: bessie (2), dimochka (1), ahippo (1).

Sabrar – Questions for the new players. Theory about bessie, will let us know. Question for bessie. Setup compared to previous game. Question for dimochka (the way I read this question is that he wants dimochka to comment on bessie). Questions Gopher of Pern about bessie. Finally posts his analysis of bessie and makes a well-supported vote. Tries to draw other players into game discussion, and answers ahippo’s questions. Something feels different about his content. I can’t quite say what, but if I had to point to something (and I do because I brought it up) it would be that Sabrar waited a little longer that I would have expected before he really started pushing hard for content (waited until the case against bessie was wrapped up). See above for my reaction to his latest post.

SirGabriel – Flavor blind, setup and win condition speculation. Keeping an eye on bessie and dimochka. Some posts that I’ve already discussed, includes FoS bessie. Answers ahippo’s questions. Selects the purple ajah, claims to have selected a random color. I feel very uneasy about this, for reasons I’ll try to explain. If he didn’t want to commit to an ajah, that’s OK, he could have answered with a joke. Or maybe he did make a joke and I’m just being Captain Obvious for the millionth time in this thread. The part that bothers me is the part where he says that he doesn’t even know if purple is an option, and brushes it off like the colors aren’t even important enough to know. Didn’t the discussion of colors even make you curious as to why some people think they might be important to the game, and maybe take note of them? My gut tells me you’re Black Ajah.

As to your vote on me, I don’t think you have presented a valid case for your vote, which I assume is this. SirGabriel said in his last post that he’s going to be conveniently busy until deadline, so I don’t think we’ll see one.

My reply to your reasons for voting for me is this:
bessie wrote:Because I think some of you secretly understand me perfectly. I will FoS you individually when I get around to making my list.


Vote: SirGabriel


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