Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

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bessie
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:22 am UTC

Attention lurkers: less than 12 hours until deadline! I’ve seen your names pop in and out of the “who is online” list all day and you’re not posting so I guess it’s scum chat. Approximately 8 hours until my final opportunity to post, and I’m going to be asleep most of those hours. If you are scum, good job. You’ve lurked your way to D2. Townies, fine, you don’t want to say the wrong thing and draw suspicion or get lynched. Well you aren’t going to be lynched. I’m going to be lynched. One of you is going to be night killed and your thoughts are going to die with you. If you are waiting to post until just before deadline, you’re doing it wrong, because it won’t generate any content. There won’t be time for everyone to respond.

Sabrar wrote:Could you please tell me what you mean by 'the case against you being wrapped up'? Because you don't know me at all if you think I lean back contentedly after any case and do not continuously think about other possibilities.
Well I certainly don’t want any misunderstandings between you and me, so I will try to explain more clearly what I meant.

bessie wrote:Sabrar – Questions for the new players. Theory about bessie, will let us know. Question for bessie. Setup compared to previous game. Question for dimochka (the way I read this question is that he wants dimochka to comment on bessie). Questions Gopher of Pern about bessie. Finally posts his analysis of bessie and makes a well-supported vote.
From my point of view, the first part of the day Sabrar is a little quieter than usual, and most of his content is bessie-focused. I think this slightly out of character, as Sabrar usually drives a lot more content on D1, and it is usually distributed among more players. But in all fairness I have not reread any games and I won’t have time before deadline so if you want to point out where I am wrong I will agree with you.

Sabrar votes for bessie. This is a valid, well supported vote. I have no problem with it (except that it’s for me). At that point in the game, I am the only player to receive a serious vote (except for the vote I placed). And there are no other lynch candidates. Things can turn pretty quickly in this game but there’s enough suspicion against me that this is probably the way the lynch is going to go.

bessie wrote:Tries to draw other players into game discussion, and answers ahippo’s questions. Something feels different about his content. I can’t quite say what, but if I had to point to something (and I do because I brought it up) it would be that Sabrar waited a little longer that I would have expected before he really started pushing hard for content (waited until the case against bessie was wrapped up). See above for my reaction to his latest post.
Only after your vote on me did you start pushing on other players. I don’t think you leaned back after making your case on me, actually I believe the opposite is true. And I believe that you continuously think about all possibilities. But from my point of view, it looks like you lined me up for today. Now you’ve moved on to others, but that’s preparation for tomorrow. So, Sabrar, can you see my point of view?

Sabrar wrote:Finally, you are very good at listing every possible reason why each player might be found scummy. Do you have any Town-reads?

Actually, my list was just how I am reading the game, and it wasn’t meant to be all scum reads. I think there were a few things I found townie sprinkled throughout that list. If I wanted to make a list with a scum read on everyone, I could have done that. Or with the exact same information, I could have made a list with a town read on everyone. So I think an ordered town-scum list would be more useful, but more difficult, due to the high number of lurkers. I’ll work on it.

For fun, post count through this one:
Spoiler:
ahippo 6
bessie 11
Carlington 3
Diemo 2
dimochka 5
Gopher of Pern 6
jimbobmacdoodle 9
JudeMorrigan 9
kalira 4
matt96 3
moody7277 6
mpolo 8
Sabrar 20
SirGabriel 9

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:02 pm UTC

Re: ahippo’s analysis.

I think my jaw hit the floor when I saw this. I don’t even know how to respond. You mean to tell me that you spent the entire weekend reading old games instead of contributing to this one? Not that this isn’t interesting and I wish I was going to be around to discuss it, but WTF? (Why did you leave out Dollhouse? D1 Town lynch, mafia win, you should read that one it is one of my favorite games.)

Even more surprising is that no one else except Carlington is calling you out for active lurking.


Rereading your post and this stands out:
ahippo wrote: For the third question, I was thinking it might be reasonable for me to claim my Ajah,


ahippo wrote:Yellow Ajah. I've been playing healers for years.


So, did you just claim to be Yellow Ajah/doctor? Why? I guess this is just another obvious thing I missed in this game. Adding it to a very long list.

Unvote

I don’t think I need to end the day with a vote. If any of you want to review my D1 content, I think will be clear whom I suspect.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:03 am UTC

I have nothing to share from last night.

I'm not claiming my color without a good reason.

I'm super busy right now as I wasn't expecting to be alive today. I'll try to get back to this tonight.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:22 am UTC

When I made my final post D1 I was on my way out the door (in real life and in the game), so I’ll finish those up first.

ahippo, I think that your analysis is quite interesting, and I think that’s great that you’re trying to compile those statistics. The reason I was so um, astonished when I saw it was that you spent all weekend analyzing old games instead of posting in the current one, while I was sitting at my computer prodding lurkers.
ahippo wrote:Well, I don't think it's completely useless.
I don’t either. I wouldn’t mind discussing your analysis more, but I don’t want to do so at the expense of this game. If you want continue crunching numbers, fine, as long as I see some game content. If you want to take this up in the Gojoe thread after the game is over, I’ll be around.

I see mpolo managed to make two more posts on D1 without contributing any more reads. Final D1 tally on number of player mentions by name in his posts: bessie (3), dimochka (1), ahippo (1). Even Carlington managed to contribute more player analysis than mpolo.

I never did get a reply from SirGabriel on my read here. SirGabriel, I said I was suspicious of you and I gave reasons. I accused you of not presenting a valid case for your vote on me. I voted for you. And nothing? Guess you thought you wouldn’t need to reply because I would be gone. Sorry if my non-lynch is inconvenient for you.

OK, on to D2.

ahippo wrote:The only thing that made him "unaligned" was that he didn't have a horse in the race on who's Amyrlin.
This is an interesting comment. I need to think about why this pings me.

ahippo wrote:Personally, I'm comfortable with claiming my Ajah, but I came to the conclusion that it probably wouldn't give us any useful information.
Really? I have exactly the opposite opinion.

Gopher of Pern wrote:matt, why didn't you claim you had a double vote? Did I miss it? And why didn't anyone else notice?
When was there even time to notice? Deadline passed, many of us probably already checked out. I know I did.

Gopher of Pern wrote:So, bessie seems to have a guardian angel.
Surprised the hell out of me too.

ahippo wrote: IIRC there were some Reds who wanted Siuan as Amyrlin and some Blues who didn't. I don't think Ajah color has much to do with alignment.
Can the fact checkers chime in? This was not my understanding, but I’m flavor blind so could be wrong. I would like to know this, because I'm still trying to work out the importance of the colors.

mpolo wrote:I received an anonymous note last night that the Black Ajah is using Myrddralls, who can Turn us without our consent. If this is indeed the case, the lack of deaths last night is somewhat disturbing.
This could indicate either a recruiting mafia or an anti-town recruiting third party. Could be a false note. Or could be scum!mpolo trying to stir up trouble. I’m going to take this claim seriously, but cautiously.

SirGabriel wrote:Anonymous notes don't necessarily mean much. Do you have any evidence that the note is telling the truth?
I find it interesting SirGabriel did not question the existence of the note, just the truthfulness of the content. And he doubles down here:
SirGabriel wrote: It's possible that mpolo received more relevant information that he has chosen not to share yet, so I just wanted to double check.
What are the chances that a town-aligned player could know the information contained in the note and anonymously tell someone about it this early in the game? I think it's more likely that the note is a hoax send by either the mafia or an independent.


moody7277 wrote:Okay, so the Brown Ajah flip with unaligned with any faction, is that supposed to map onto independent with no anti-town tendencies, or are we migrating to a several faction with a mutual antagonist model?
That’s what we’re trying to figure out. ahippo, what’s your opinion on this?

moody7277 wrote:Third, I would be okay declaring colors. I find it interesting that the person most fervently against it is bessie. Sabrar at least has a game mechanic concern about it.
Hmm, that is interesting, isn’t it? I wonder if she has a reason she doesn’t want to claim her color yet.

Carlington, dimochka, matt96, hi! Anything you want to share?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:49 am UTC

@ahippo (non-game content)
Spoiler:
ahippo wrote:I consider it correct to not capitalize the 'a' in ahippo even at the beginning of a sentence, so thanks for that.
I put a lot of effort into trying to get everyone’s name correct, but spell check usually screws it up!

Re: color claiming:
SirGabriel wrote: But what's the difference between brown and gray? I have no idea, and I have no evidence that it matters. If I recall correctly, there's only been one post so far that suggested that there might be a particular importance to each individual color such that remembering every single color on the list would matter.

Well I think the cat is out of the bag on this one. Some of us believe powers are tied to the colors.
mpolo wrote:Red : punishes wrong use of power (maybe a role-block or jailer?)
Green : readies itself for battle (vigilante?)
Gray: diplomacy, mediation, politics (something with votes?)
Brown: knowledge (some sort of investigative role?)
Yellow: healing (obvious doctor here)
Blue: righteousness and justice (some kind of cop?)
White: logic and philosophy (some kind of cop?)

This fits with Diemo’s role and Matt’s claim. So there is some indication that even if mpolo’s guesses aren’t all correct, jimbobmacdoodle used the colors as inspiration for the powers, and the non-flavor blind among us can probably easily figure them out.

On SirGabriel's continuing suspicion of me:
SirGabriel wrote:I'm not ignoring anything. I look at her posts and I see a couple of scummy things, and some good content which could come from either scum or town, but nothing that is clearly townie. If she does something that I consider clearly townie, or if future flips suggest that her content is a sincere attempt at scumhunting, then I will certainly reconsider my opinion of her. And I will also reconsider it if she ever explains those actions which I found scummy. But, at least until we have more flips, having good content is not going to be enough to convince me of her towniness.
I feel I have been over this already, but it’s possible that I am just misunderstanding something, so I’ll ask. SirGabriel, why exactly do you find me scummy?

And finally this:
JudeMorrigan wrote:Tell me, do you mean in this game in particular of mafia in general? Because I don't know if I could fault you for the latter. I've really struggled to find a productive voice for myself in the game of mafia. All I can say is that I *am* trying.

@dim: One of the main reasons I joined this game (the other being bessie's post asking for two more players to sign up) is that I love the Wheel of Time. I saw an opportunity for some flavor inspired silliness and I took it. That much I won't apologize for. The rest though ... all I can do is repeat what I said to mpolo. Although I will note that your post's the sort of criticism of me that gets a person townie-points from me. Misguided though it may be, it's at least based on what I actually said and did.
And I for one am glad that you decided to sign up. You disappeared during Once Upon a Mafia and I didn’t even know you still read games until your Gojoe comment about MMM II.

What qualifies as productive content in a mafia game is a matter of opinion (for examples, like, read this thread?). My belief is that its best to post and let everyone know what you think, and don’t worry about making every post a work of art.

More tomorrow, I had an especially long day at work.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 28, 2017 6:38 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:On that note regarding Ajahs and powers, I still think Sabrar's FoS on everyone who disagrees is too much. I understand the link just fine, I just don't think anyone has enough data points yet to be that certain.

Perhaps, but I believe there are enough data points for each player to make his own preliminary evaluation. Every player has access to three indisputable pieces of evidence, bolded by the mod.

1. Diemo’s role PM.
2. Matt’s double vote.
3. Their own role PM.

Also, not proof, but there’s this claim.
dimochka wrote:claiming ajah - i'm against claiming and i'll even mention specifically why. my role correlates somewhat with mpolo's suggested list (what colors would result in what roles). i don't actually particularly care about revealing my own role as it's not that great, BUT since mine correlates, i expect that potential cops/vigs/doctors/jailers would too.


And there's also this claim. I'm not sure what to make of it, but I'll put it here for consideration.
SirGabriel wrote:Does anyone object to having a mass claim of our colors? I have information that might be useful if everyone first claims their color.


There’s no proof colors always correlate with colors. There’s no proof colors are tied to alignment. But there’s enough to make me wary of a mass claim. And SirGabriel, I would consider claiming if you have evidence that will lead directly to scum, like you witnessed a Myrddrall plotting with a Red. But if it’s something like you have a night result that all Blues are town, I think it might be better to wait.

Just for completeness, players that I think probably don’t have powers that correlate with colors.
ahippo wrote:Personally, I'm comfortable with claiming my Ajah, but I came to the conclusion that it probably wouldn't give us any useful information.

JudeMorrigan wrote:I have no particular objection to a mass-ajah claim.

moody7277 wrote:Third, I would be okay declaring colors. I find it interesting that the person most fervently against it is bessie. Sabrar at least has a game mechanic concern about it.

Carlington wrote:I have no issue claiming my colour, and I have ideas about how it might prove useful.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:50 am UTC

Alphabetical D2 reads list. I’m only looking at D2 and I’m concentrating on what sticks out to me. It’s a little light because deadline is in approximately 16(?) hours and I wanted to get something posted in time to discuss. I’ll be around tonight, and if you want me to respond to anything please post before 7:00 am PST.

ahippo – OK with Ajah claim, but doesn't think it will provide any useful information. Claimed not Red or Yellow.
ahippo wrote:The only thing that made him "unaligned" was that he didn't have a horse in the race on who's Amyrlin.
I've noted before that this comment pings me, and it still does. My current theory is that no color (of the 7 official Ajah colors) has the goal of getting their color on the Amyrlin Seat. There’s not enough players in this game. Possibly only the Black Ajah would have this goal
ahippo wrote:We did get off the hook for the NK (assuming there is one) which means some roleblocker probably got it right.
This has been nagging at me since he posted it. Why a roleblocker? Seems odd to me that he didn’t mention a doctor, especially since he answered his own question as to which color he would pick with yellow/healer. At first I thought maybe he was scum that knew the kill was roleblocked, but this is probably not info the mod would give him. One possibility is that scum would know if a scum recruit was blocked.
ahippo wrote: I'll be spending the next twenty-four hours looking at individuals and trying to come up with opinions on them. I can't guarantee a post within that timeframe, but I'll be online. I'm hoping for the rest to join in (especially matt69 because of double voting power). I'm interested to hear what they have to say.
Pushes others for content but he himself hasn't posted since Thursday.


Carlington – Not against mass Ajah claim.
Carlington wrote:I don't want to claim anything just now, but that might change by the end of today. I have no issue claiming my colour, and I have ideas about how it might prove useful.
Carlington never went anywhere with this, but was never pushed for an explanation either. Just bookmarking for now.
Carlington wrote:bessie ...As an aside, I think I like the less patient and more assertive playstyle she's adopted of late.
:twisted:


dimochka – Against mass Ajah claim (which I already commented on).
dimochka wrote: I'm still unsure about her, thinking she might be an independent or something like diemo.
Observation: dimochka and Diemo probably do not have the same win condition.
dimochka wrote: I just put together a recap of everyone's posts and am going through it, will have a town to scum list later.
Still waiting.


Gopher of Pern – Will claim his Ajah if he needs to. I need to think about him a little more.


JudeMorrigan – Initially did not object to mass Ajah claim, became less comfortable with claiming after there had been discussion, but still not against it.
JudeMorrigan wrote:Because right now I'm starting to wonder if you and GoP are trying to manufacture a case on me with your mischaracterizations.
I’m not the only one reading SirGabriel and Gopher of Pern as a team.


matt96 – RL computer issues. Claimed Grey Ajah, claim supported by mod-confirmed vote power. Did not offer an opinion on mass claiming.
matt96 wrote: As far as why I voted for Deimo, I had a few reasons, including but not limited to valuing Bessie's contributions more than Deimo's and wanting to see who, if anyone, would switch the lynch.
So you saw who switched, were you able to draw any conclusions from yesterday’s lynch?


moody7277/Madge – moody was OK with claiming colors, Madge is against claiming until she has time to catch up and figure out what is going on in the game.


mpolo – RL internet problems. Received anonymous note last night, had question for the mod on the wording of Diemo's win condition. Against Ajah claiming for reasons that haven’t been discussed as much as the color=power theory.
mpolo wrote:A majority has no problem with color claiming. I side with Sabrar on this: Ajah claiming is not going to find the Blacks (as they almost certainly have a "cover" Ajah, probably even a presumably townie power to go with it); It is likely to expose powerful townie roles; there are likely townies with no Ajah (Min, Warders).
I want to note this in case I want to come back to it later.


Sabrar – Against mass Ajah claiming, and FoSed everyone who doesn't understand why he has this view.
Sabrar wrote:Diemo's role was so unusual (at least for me) that I wouldn't rule out the possibility just yet.
Observation: Sabrar and Diemo probably do not have the same win condition.
Sabrar wrote:- SirGabriel and Gopher of Pern seem to form a coalition, would not be surprised if they'd claim Mason.
Another player that suspects a connection between these two.


SirGabriel – First post D2 was fishing for support for mass Ajah claim. Later decided that mass claiming would probably help scum more than town. Does not question the existence of mpolo’s note, only the content. I already discussed this.
SirGabriel wrote:bessie - I'll admit that she has some decent content now, but that doesn't make up for everything that pinged me about her before. I have nothing else to say that I haven't said before. Scummy.

Voting for bessie for reasons given in this post on page 2.
SirGabriel wrote:Unless I am mistaken, "unaligned" is this game's equivalent of "town." moody's question suggests that he had not already come to this conclusion. So either this game is way too complicated for the number of players, or moody is unaligned/town but for some reason hasn't realized the two are essentially synonymous in this game, or moody didn't realize unaligned=town because he is in some other faction and thus only knew of one unaligned player (Diemo) instead of the two (Diemo and himself) he would have known of if he were unaligned. I think the last option is the most likely.
Observation: SirGabriel and Diemo probably have the same win condition.


I'll try to draw some conclusions from these reads later tonight.

Ninja'd by ahippo. Looking forward to his content.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:35 pm UTC

ahippo wrote:It seems like the primary reason I'm leading in the votals is because of my D1 post.

I think the primary reason you’re leading the votals is lack of scumhunting. Matt hasn’t done much either, but he’s shown what many believe is a townie power, so because there is another candidate he’s been given a pass. But Matt’s (dimochka’s, etc) content will need to improve soon or townie power or not, it just isn’t worth keeping someone around who doesn’t post.

One problem with lurkers, and I’ve said it before, is that they’re a huge risk at endgame. In a three-way gun fight, a townie may have to choose between a town lurker with no content and a scum with great content.

ahippo wrote:If that's true, why wouldn't someone have come out by now to claim they were the one to block the kill, either as doctor or especially as roleblocker? I highly doubt there would have been a counter-claim, and in either situation we get strong information.

Role fishing. And doesn’t make sense. And there doesn’t need to be a counter claim because of the number of possibilities:

Scum didn’t use a kill last night (I’m listing this one for completeness).
Roleblocker blocked mafia.
Jailer blocked mafia.
Jailer protected target.
Doctor protected target.
Target is bulletproof.
Target is a commuter.
Delayed kill (poison).
And throw a redirector in there if you really want a mess.

ahippo wrote:Is bessie usually this nice? I'm willing to accept that these might be genuine acts of kindness not related to her role. I'm not convinced they aren't ploys to get me to like her. That dog avatar is playing some mind games with me.

I’m not sure if nice is the correct word. It’s the dog avatar. The dog is an expert at mind control. You don’t know how many times I’ve found myself in the kitchen, with no idea how I got there, holding a box of dog cookies which was slightly lighter than I remembered it being previously. :)

I would have liked more time to discuss some other things in your post with you, but Monday mornings are difficult for me, and are my busiest day at work. I want to leave this quote from D1 here because it’s something I keep trying to push in every game.
bessie wrote:Attention lurkers: less than 12 hours until deadline! I’ve seen your names pop in and out of the “who is online” list all day and you’re not posting so I guess it’s scum chat. Approximately 8 hours until my final opportunity to post, and I’m going to be asleep most of those hours. If you are scum, good job. You’ve lurked your way to D2. Townies, fine, you don’t want to say the wrong thing and draw suspicion or get lynched. Well you aren’t going to be lynched. I’m going to be lynched. One of you is going to be night killed and your thoughts are going to die with you. If you are waiting to post until just before deadline, you’re doing it wrong, because it won’t generate any content. There won’t be time for everyone to respond.

Citations not provided for every claim I’ve made about my previous content because I’m out of time. If you want citations, post early and often!

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:56 am UTC

I just got really busy so I'll post what I can and try to get back to this later.

Sabrar wrote:Just to clear up any confusion, when I spoke about Diemo's role I was commenting on his ability and not his win-condition.
Thanks for clearing that up. That makes a lot more sense.

dimochka wrote:I'll post before deadline but it'd be nice if we had some time for people to react.
So? Deadline’s passed.

ahippo wrote:Like I said, I'd personally be quick to claim. Maybe it's because I don't know what would work, but I still feel it'd be a strong choice.

I’m seriously concerned you still don’t see what’s wrong with this. Ok, let’s have an example.

The mafia team of SDK and kalira try to night kill Suzaku, who is bullet proof. The kill fails and they have no idea why, until the day begins.

Djehutynakht: I’m a roleblocker. I must have prevented the kill. Vytron is scum.
SDK: Great! Let’s lynch him.
Lawrencelot: Wait, I’m a doctor. I protected ConMan. Maybe I prevented the kill.
Suzaku: Maybe you’re both wrong. I’m bulletproof. What if I was the target?
kalira: I’m not sure we should lynch Vytron without more proof.
Misnomer: Vytron’s the best candidate, let’s lynch him and see what happens tonight.
Vytron: OK fine. Vote: Vytron

[Later in scum chat...]

kalira (wiping a tear from her eye); It’s…it’s like Christmas.
SDK: So which of them would you like to pick off first?


More later. Everyone post.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Wed Feb 01, 2017 6:58 am UTC

A lot has happened since my last post. Updated setup speculation,12 players, initial distribution:

Faction 1: Black Ajah
Black/White, Alviarin Freidhen, possible Godfather, cops as White. Recruiter, controls Myddralls.
Power speculation: D1 recruit, for game mechanics (ensure game doesn’t end D1). Alternate recruit/night kill. Can recruit any other player in the game.

Faction 2: Suian Supporters
Blue, Suian Sanche, SirGabriel. Recruiter, alternate night or limited.
Blue, Leane Sharif, ahippo.
Power speculation: Recruit on Faction 3 or unaligned Red will fail. Can be secretly recruited by Faction 1. Can false recruit Faction 1.

Faction 3: Elaida Supporters
Red, Elaida a’Roihan, Recruiter.
Red, (unknown).
Power speculation: Recruit on Faction 2 or unaligned Blue will fail. Can be secretly recruited by Faction 1. Can false recruit Faction 1.

Unaligned until recruited:
Red
Blue
Green
Yellow
White
Brown, Diemo (tracker/watcher)
Grey, Matt (double voter)


I've been struggling with reads this game, maybe because of all the potentially unaligned players. So instead of a town-scum list, here's my least-scummy to most-scummy list.

Sabrar - I just don’t have time to go through all of Sabrar’s content right now. I will see if I can get to it before deadline, but he’s not on my lynch list today.
Sabrar wrote:He is basically voting for a character who is as close to an Innocent Child as anyone can be without actual mod-reveal.
Without a mod reveal what purpose would this role serve? Oh, and I don't agree.

matt96 – Not a lot to go on. He has a townie power, but this power might also make him an appealing recruit. Not on my lynch list for today, but I don't think I would try to prevent it.

Carlington – One really long reads post five days ago, not much other content. Carlington, you need some updated reads. I don’t have enough to make a read one way or the other.

mpolo – Waited until halfway through D2 to do any actual scumhunting. I think he’s probably not Black, or he wouldn’t have revealed that he received a note.
mpolo wrote: For me, being in Elaida's faction is almost as bad as being Black Ajah, if that's the case. However, we haven't had any hint of how Amyrlins are changed, so they are certainly a lesser threat at the moment.
Possible Suian recruit, but there’s a small possibility he’s a Black recruit.
mpolo wrote:Vote: Madge

Primarily to get an alternative to ahippo out there.
Why did you believe this was necessary?

JudeMorrigan – Has posted a reasonable amount of content, including player reads, but it should be noted that his scum reads are flavor-driven. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, as I am still pretty flavor blind (I look up what I need for this game), and I don’t yet have a solid opinion on how much the game’s structure depends on the flavor.

dimochka- Another player that hasn’t posted enough content to get a decent read. I get a slight ping from this.
dimochka wrote: my role correlates somewhat with mpolo's suggested list (what colors would result in what roles). i don't actually particularly care about revealing my own role as it's not that great, BUT since mine correlates, i expect that potential cops/vigs/doctors/jailers would too.
It reads to me like a subtle appeal for us to ignore him. Possible Black Ajah.

Gopher of Pern – Possible N1 Suian recruit, because he is so focused on saving SirGabriel. Also, SirGabriel may have recruited him because of his focus on bessie D1 (see below). But if he was recruited by SirGabriel, why switch from bessie to ahippo? Anyway, to answer this:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Sabrar, I wish there was a way to confirm if they were telling the truth, but in absence of that, would it not be better to lynch ahippo, and if they do indeed support Siuan, then we all just follow SirGabriel the next day?
Not necessarily. SirGabriel is the recruiter, not ahippo.

Madge – My pick for Alvairin. Unfortunately has not had a lot of time to catch up since she replaced, but I still think her content has been scummy.
Madge wrote: my role is a bit complicated and that's made even worse by the fact that I don't have any idea about flavour
OK, I have been trying not to meta-game the game (or the mod) since my exchange with moody about it on D1, but this statement that your role is complicated really makes me suspicious.
Madge wrote:That said, he *did* more or less admit that he was cult. Aren't cults a bad thing? Remind me why we shouldn't just lynch them both ASAP????
I don’t like this comment. We haven’t even determined if the cult(s) are the scum factions yet, so this appears to me as a effort by Madge to focus attention away from herself. Scummy.

ahippo – Claim by SirGabriel that they are aligned, and that it is a pro-town faction. I believe the aligned part. It makes sense to me, because it fits with ahippo’s odd vote for me on D1 (following SirGabriel’s lead) despite not having a scum read on me. Although I guess he did say in a couple of different places that he was a bad scum hunter and not to expect much.
ahippo wrote:You've been making way more assumptions than I ever did. If a game did have that much town, anti-NK roles it would be horrifically imbalanced. I think it's highly unlikely for there to be more than one person who had a reason to claim, thus there would probably be no counter-claim.
I feel this statement is irreconcilable with someone who read the previous 18 games instead of posting in this one on D1. I don’t have time to go through them all but probably like three were vanilla enough to only have one anti-NK role.
ahippo wrote: If you're a doctor and you wake up to find no night kill, you've got a pretty good reason to believe you did it right.
Have you listened to nothing that I’ve tried to explain to you?
ahippo wrote: If there were a roleblocker who didn't share that information, it would leave town very in the dark and much more likely to lynch another townie, leading to a much worse scenario D3.
And my reply to this is that you are role fishing. Again.

Conflicting content. Role fishing, and using false information to support it. Scummy.

As a bonus, I’ll answer this for you:
ahippo wrote:I'll end with a claim. Not my Ajah, but my power. I have the ability to read weaves. N2, I can read what powers were used on my target N1. Assuming I survive the day, I'm open to suggestions on whom I should target with this ability.
Target mpolo. Should I explain why too? Or perhaps he is also in your group?

SirGabriel – One thing that really stands out to me is that he tried to cast doubt on content of mpolo’s note, but not on the existence of the note itself.
SirGabriel wrote:Also, the flavor of my role PM mentioned that someone is spreading rumors about the non-existent Black Ajah, so I think Elaida's faction is the closest thing we have to a mafia.
As pointed out, contradicts opening post flavor, but I don’t think that in itself is a big deal for me, because I’m not convinced that everything in the flavor is meant to be more than flavor. What I really don’t like about SirGabriel is his singular focus on me D1, and on D2 until he needed to try another approach to save ahippo.

SirGabriel, I think you might be a scummy Black Ajah mafia. Or you may really be Suian Sanche of the “Suian Supporter” faction. It kinda really doesn’t matter from my point of view. You and ahippo did your best to get me lynched D1. You also tried to get me lynched D2, using I guess the reasons you gave on page two, for my content on page 1. You won’t reply to my requests to confirm your reasons for wanting me lynched. You are totally uninterested in not trying to get me lynched. You will probably try to get me lynched D3, and I don’t really care. What I know is that there is a mountain of evidence that you and ahippo are not going to invite me to join your faction. So seriously, why should I want your team to win, when I'm not going to be part of that team?

Vote: SirGabriel

Would consider switching to ahippo.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Wed Feb 01, 2017 7:46 am UTC

Madge wrote:It looks like we are mostly unaligned and then join one of the two cults (SirG's Blue or MYsterious Red Leader)? And the cults are opposed to each other, and also to Black (who are the scum faction)? And if you don't get recruited, you still win, as long as Black is killed? Or are the cults aligned? Do we realy believe SirG when he says Black doesn't exist?
This is what we are trying to figure out.

Can the mod post the official votals?

Unofficial votals (barring shenanigans):

ahippo (3) : Gopher of Pern, Carlington, JudeMorrigan
Madge (2) : SirGabriel, mpolo
JudeMorrigan (1) : Sabrar
SirGabriel (1) : bessie

Not voting: ahippo, dimochka, Madge, matt96

Deadline is in less than 12 hours.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:31 am UTC

I have nothing to claim from last night. I didn't get a letter/message/note/etc N1 or N2.

Good job dimochka.

I just got home, so more later.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:05 am UTC

Madge wrote:I received an item, but I don't think that exactly counts as a message. I have a one-shot kill due to receiving a dagger.

Wow, what a remarkable coincidence you received a dagger on the same night the Black Ajah gained a factional kill!

A dagger? Not a ter’angreal or something that would actually fit with the flavor?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Fri Feb 03, 2017 11:20 pm UTC

I just got home (been at a funeral all day), I'll try to have a post up in an hour before people disappear for the weekend.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:30 am UTC

This is a little disjointed. I haven’t had time to make a decent post D2, so I’m just going to post what I’m thinking and not take too much time to organize it.

Unexpected (by me at least) information from the role reveals: the two (confirmed) factions did not have chat, however:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:His win condition was to control the leadership of the White Tower or to eliminate all other players (or if nothing could prevent that). His faction controls a night kill, but only after one of the faction members was killed. His faction did not have any chat abilities.
I’m wondering how this factional kill is going to work without chat. Is it possible that the Black Ajah faction has now gained chat?

Sabrar wrote: And what was the Black Ajah doing before they gained a kill?
I’m also wondering about this, if they don’t have a recruit. I will think about it.


OK, I’m pretty flavor blind. And I’ve already said that I’m not sure how much we should expect the game flavor to be more than flavor. But I’m going to go out on a limb and speculate that the ter’angreal are controlled by the Black Ajah.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:It was also not that long ago that a whole group of Sisters had fled the Tower, stealing many ter’angreal.

The flavor suggests Jude was using ter’angreal to pass notes.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The Accepted presented a small wax tablet to Siuan. Leane gasped as she saw what was being presented. Quickly, she ushered the Accepted away.

“Well, that is something. I recognise it - it’s one of the stolen ter’angreals from the vaults. That can only mean one thing...”


So who else has claimed to have a ter’angreal?
bessie wrote:
Madge wrote:I received an item, but I don't think that exactly counts as a message. I have a one-shot kill due to receiving a dagger.

Wow, what a remarkable coincidence you received a dagger on the same night the Black Ajah gained a factional kill!

A dagger? Not a ter’angreal or something that would actually fit with the flavor?

Madge wrote:Sorry, I'm speaking in non-flavour speak because I don't understand flavour.

I received one of the Tower's ter'angreal, which is the Ebony Dagger
First thought when I saw this: nice save Madge. Later Sabrar claimed he too received a ter’angreal on N1 (Quartz Diviner). Ok, so maybe Madge does have a Quartz Dagger.

Re: Sabrar’s result
Sabrar wrote:- I received a 1-shot Cop ability N1 in the form of a ter’angreal which a note said to be the Quartz Diviner
- I clarified with the mod that it would show the target's faction (e.g. Elaida supporter, unaligned or something like that)
- I also clarified that the ability would resolve after any recruitment happens, so I learn the new alignment of the target
- I used it on Madge last night since she attracted a lot of heat D2 because of moody's comment
- The result says that she belongs Siuan Sanche's faction (and from the wording I do no think I was redirected)

To begin with, I don’t think that Madge belonged to Siuan’s faction on D2. She possibly was recruited last night. Maybe later we can debate the likelihood of Madge being recruited last night by Siuan (and the likelihood that someone gave Madge a 1-shot vig).

Reasons I don’t think Madge is a Siuan supporter (at least not on D2).
Madge’s first post after SirGabriel’s claim does not question his claim to be Siuan Sanche.
This post after my revised setup speculation with 3 factions (Black Ajah, Siuan supporters, Elaida supporters) and a pool of unaligned still does not question SirGabriel’s claim to be Siuan. Also suggests getting rid of SirGabriel’s (Siuan’s) faction first.

Reason I think Madge did belong to a faction on D1.
This remark by moody (re bessie/dimochka) has been nagging at me since D1. I’ve written it up in my notes, but never went anywhere with it.
moody7277 wrote:1. Staged confrontation (which would have to have been impromptu at this point) for the purpose of distancing between scum!dim and scum!bessie.
I always thought it was strange that he speculated scum!dimochka and scum!bessie would have an impromptu staged confrontation. I assumed scum had day chat because of the nightless setup. So I didn’t really see it as a scum tell. If moody was scum, he would have day chat so…what? Now that we know scum and the Elaida faction didn’t have day chat (at least on D1), this reads like moody started out as a member of a faction, but it’s not clear evidence it was the Black Ajah faction.

Conclusion: Madge was a member of a faction on D1, and was not a member of Siuan’s faction D2.

Back to Sabrar's cop result. If Sabrar is telling the truth about receiving an item and about his result, I think it’s possible that this is a false result, and the ter’angreal was given to Sabrar by the Black Ajah (modified or fake ter'angreal).

Third option, Sabrar is lying about having a ter’angreal and is covering for a scum slip by Madge.

Note on option #3. This makes me believe on D2 Sabrar was a member of a non-Elaida faction. Could be Suian’s faction or the Black Ajah faction.
Sabrar wrote:At this point I think ahippo's flip would give us the most information, plus he told us that he was an Elaida supporter so fmpov he can no longer be Town in any scenario.


I want to go to this post, because I’ve been thinking about it for a few days and it doesn’t feel right to me.
Sabrar wrote:- totally understand bessie's vote but I think it's selfish and placed for the wrong reasons. If you really think Madge is Black Ajah, shouldn't you be voting for her as they are 100% scum, while Siuan might still be on Town's side? It is always possible for SirGabriel to later change his mind while scum will want you dead no matter what you do.

I don’t agree with you at all. And I question why you would even say this. My vote was placed for the correct reasons and I was playing to my most likely win condition. At the time I made that post, my setup speculation was three recruiting factions and a pool of unaligned players from which to recruit. I theorized SirGabriel’s faction would not be recruiting me. There was a chance that one of the other factions would eventually recruit me, so it would be in my best interests to get rid of the faction to which I would never belong.

Additionally, I checked the rules, and there is no rule stating that you can’t play against your win condition, probably because for such a rule to exist each player would need a clearly defined win condition. But this is irrelevant at any rate, as I wasn’t playing against my win condition.

And regarding the odds of SirGabriel changing his mind about tunneling on me D3:
SirGabriel wrote:Based on people's behavior, I think the most likely scum team is Jude, bessie, and moody/Madge.
Pfft.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'll look more into their posts later, but for now:

Vote:bessie

Just a general request to everyone: please don’t make placeholder votes. If you’re convinced someone is scum, go ahead, but it’s only 5 votes to hammer and matt has a double vote. You may regret a vote you placed just to throw something up there if the wagon forms fast.

Ninja'd by Madge. I'll be back.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 04, 2017 3:08 am UTC

Madge, you are correct, I meant Ebony Dagger. I didn't proofread carefully.

Madge wrote:Yep, I'm a member of Siuan Sanche's faction - but not the leader. As a result I was quite happy for ahippo or SirG to be lynched yesterday, because I am pretty damn sure that we are opposed to them (dualling cults). My win condition requires that Siuan be placed as the Amyrlin Seat of the White Tower. So I'm guessing that Blue wants their guy in that seat. I'm obviously not cool with this.
I assume you're not Blue.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 04, 2017 3:45 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:My note did not seem to come from a ter'angreal for what it's worth. The message was presented as a "quote" in BB Code (which hadn't registered to me before), so I now have little doubt that Jude wrote it, probably targetting me for having enough flavor knowledge to understand Myrddraal.


mpolo, Jude was using a ter’angreal . The wax tablet used to create the note you received is the ter’angreal.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The Accepted presented a small wax tablet to Siuan. Leane gasped as she saw what was being presented. Quickly, she ushered the Accepted away.

“Well, that is something. I recognise it - it’s one of the stolen ter’angreals from the vaults. That can only mean one thing...”

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 05, 2017 5:43 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:While I'm here, any suggestions for what I should ask jimbob tonight?

Ask jimbob how many Black Ajah were voting for Diemo at the end on D1.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Votals:
Diemo (5) - JudeMorrigan, moody7277, matt96(x2), Sabrar
bessie (3) - Gopher of Pern, SirGabriel, ahippo
ahippo (1) - Carlington

But you’re not going to have the opportunity to ask that question. Madge is going to kill you tonight.

bessie is lynched D3.
dimochka is modkilled.
Madge kills SirGabriel N3.

So who’s left?

Carlington, Gopher of Pern, matt96, Madge, mpolo, Sabrar

Two of which are Black Ajah. The Black Ajah have enough information to determine which player is Siuan Sanche, and they kill her with their N3 factional kill (if Madge’s kill isn’t the mafia factional kill).

mpolo, you’re voting for me for the wrong reasons. Jude’s team followed him on to Diemo’s wagon. He was the Black Ajah leader and they didn’t have chat. I might be scum. Someone on Diemo's wagon is definitely scum.

Gopher of Pern, unless you’re sure I’m scum you should unvote.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:00 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: I think you misunderstood me (might be our theme for the game). I never implied that you were going against your win-condition but it looks like the Black Ajah is a more imminent threat so I think it would make sense to try to get rid of them first.
I explained this already. I thought the Black Ajah could recruit. Team Elaida would not be recruiting me. So my possibilities were Team Suian or the Black Ajah.

I don't have any information on dimochka's status in this game, other than what has been posted in this thread.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:dimochka has requested a replacement. He may continue to post until we find one or he is (mod)killed.

But I don't think he's a night kill candidate anyway. He claimed his color and power with no counterclaims. If he's telling the truth, he's vanilla.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:37 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SirGabriel: at this point I think your best chance at survival is to ask Madge what she wants to know in exchange for not getting killed by her.
Not true. His best chance of keeping Madge from killing him is lynching Madge.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I don't see how you can think there is a possibility that madge is black ajah. Any Siuan supporters would know that madge is not on their team, or if she has been recruited, they would know she is lying about being a supporter from day 1.
Is it possible Siuan and her supporters don’t know each other’s identities? I’m not expecting anyone to answer this. Just think about it. Because I think the scum team is Sabrar and Madge.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Is it possible Siuan and her supporters don’t know each other’s identities? I’m not expecting anyone to answer this. Just think about it. Because I think the scum team is Sabrar and Madge.
Could you elaborate on how the two things are in any way related?
Because I’m reading Madge as scum. The only evidence that there is a Team Siuan faction is your cop result. I’m considering the possibility that there is no Team Siuan. No one counterclaimed SirGabriel yesterday when he claimed to be Siuan Sanche including Madge.

Madge wrote:And you could swear up and down that you won't recruit, but it's in your interest to lie, so i won't be able to believe you. Sorry. I think you're toast.
Madge, if you are telling the truth, if we mislynch today and you kill SirGabriel, mafia will NK Siuan Sanche and win. Sabrar, why are you not calling her out on this?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:12 am UTC

Well obviously no one reads anything I post. Replies to questions/D3 recap:
Sabrar wrote:Because unlike you I have no information about scum's win condition. I assumed so far that it is the usual, i.e. need to reach parity with non-scum which definitely won't happen tonight with 2-out-of-9 scum remaining, even if it is matt with double-vote. You seem to imply that it is enough for them to eliminate the 2 faction-leaders. Why are you so sure about this?
I’m not. Any information that I have about any win condition in this game can be gleaned from information publicly available in this thread. But it seems like if Team Siuan needs Siuan to be Amyrlin to win, and Team Elaida need Elaida to be Amyrlin to win, Team Black Ajah will have a better chance of winning if they’re both dead.

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:And regarding my claim at the beginning of D2, I know that Siuan is in the game and I know the colors of myself and all my supporters, as well as Diemo's color, and since there were no duplicates, I initially took that to imply that there was exactly one from each color in the game.
So if Siuan is not in the game then SirGabriel is lying, presumably lying about everything, therefore probably needs to be also eliminated.
I’m viewing everything SirGabriel said D2 with a measure of skepticism. I just skimmed his D3 posts to see if he stated again that he knew Siuan was in the game and I didn’t see it but it might be there somewhere. So OK, my only "proof" that Siuan is in the game is that your cop result and SirGabriel says she is.

Observation: No one has claimed or counterclaimed Madge.
Conclusion: Madge’s faction sees no need to claim because they’re currently all hidden and strong because of it. OR there is no one to counterclaim because there is no Siuan faction, just a Black Ajah mafia faction, an Elaida third-party faction, and an “unaligned” town faction because Siuan is already the Amyrlin so they don’t need to do anything but preserve the status quo to win.

Which is it? I don’t know. From my point of view, Madge’s performance on D2 was either a super scummy scum slip, or a super brilliant save while she assessed the situation, caught up with the content, and waited for her team to show up. And Madge is capable of being super brilliant.

And now back to people that don't read my posts.
mpolo wrote:I do want to know why JudeMorrigan would deflect a lynch away from bessie. This seems like unusual "sticking out your neck" with no obvious motive for a scum faction. Why do you think you were saved by the Black Ajah, bessie?
Perhaps something about Diemo’s content/flavor knowledge worried him. Diemo was one of the few players that wasn’t flavor blind. Most of Jude’s content was flavor driven. Most of his case on ahippo was flavor based. And this is not a new observation by me. I said it here on D2.
bessie wrote:JudeMorrigan – Has posted a reasonable amount of content, including player reads, but it should be noted that his scum reads are flavor-driven. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, as I am still pretty flavor blind (I look up what I need for this game), and I don’t yet have a solid opinion on how much the game’s structure depends on the flavor.


I don’t believe Jude was particularly trying to save me from the D1 lynch as much as he was setting Diemo up for D2. He voted when I was comfortably leading the votals. He was his team’s leader. They didn’t have chat. Perhaps they interpreted his vote as a signal to follow. I already made this speculation here.
bessie wrote:mpolo, you’re voting for me for the wrong reasons. Jude’s team followed him on to Diemo’s wagon. He was the Black Ajah leader and they didn’t have chat. I might be scum. Someone on Diemo's wagon is definitely scum.


And because everything always goes back to Madge:
SirGabriel wrote:If you can convince Madge of that, I would be happy to go back to hunting scum. But my faction's chances if I die tonight aren't looking good, and if I lose, it makes no difference to me whether the winner is Siuan's faction or the Black Ajah.
I understand your point of view. I also somehow believe that I will be the object of your attention.
SirGabriel wrote:Based on people's behavior, I think the most likely scum team is Jude, bessie, and moody/Madge. And the fact that those are the same three scum reads I had in my D2 analysis post makes me even more confident in that conclusion.

Which leads me here.
Carlington wrote:A response to SirG - you have to play to your wincon I guess, but I doubt you'll get the consensus of town to lynch fellow town for the benefit of a faction they aren't aligned with.
I have to say I agree with Carlington here. The part about getting help from those not in your faction. Not the part about Madge being confirmed town, which she’s not.

Perhaps I will annoy Madge enough that she targets me instead. I have about 12 hours to accomplish this. Madge, are you going to post?

SirGabriel wrote:
Carlington wrote:FMPOV bessie is confirmed town.

Why?
Carlington believes something about me is more likely to be townie than scummy. Must be my spectacularly townie content throughout this entire game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Wed Feb 08, 2017 3:18 am UTC

I have no results to share from last night.

I did not receive a ter'angreal, message, or anything else.

More later, I just got home.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Thu Feb 09, 2017 5:07 pm UTC

It looks like things have slowed down because we already have a lynch candidate for tonight, and possibly tomorrow night. But we still need to keep talking because if SirGabriel is telling the truth, there is still one remaining Black Ajah in [bessie, Carlington, dimochka, Gopher of Pern, mpolo, SirGabriel].

Carlington and dimochka at least make a post saying you’re here and tell us whether or not you have anything to share from last night.

I’ll respond to today’s content and anything I missed from yesterday when I get home from work tonight.

Ninja'd by Sabrar.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Fri Feb 10, 2017 4:28 am UTC

Some things I’m thinking about.

Recruits. By my count, everyone could potentially belong to a faction by now. Some recruits possibly failed. Why?

Black: Jude, Black TBD, Black TBD
Suian: Suian TBD, Madge, N1 recruit TBD, N2 recruit TBD
Elaida: SirGabriel, ahippo, N1 Recruit TBD, N3 recruit TBD
Unaligned: Diemo

TBD: bessie, Carlington, dimochka, Gopher of Pern, matt96, mpolo, Sabrar


Sabrar vs. matt96. If SirGabriel is telling the truth about his night results, Sabrar or matt is scum. Team Elaida has not yet placed any votes. If either Sabrar or matt is on Team Elaida, Team Elaida should be voting for the other guy because they would trust SirGabriel to be telling the truth.

Ter’angreal. No one claimed they received one last night. I’m not convinced that these are good anyway, because I don’t know who is giving them out. I know Jude had one, but it was the source of his power, not an extra object he could use instead of his power. Madge claimed she could use hers instead of her power. Sabrar could have a “good” ter’angreal or he could have lied about having one or about his results. Why were the recipients selected? I can’t see someone giving Madge a kill unless they were on her team or it was a “bad” ter’angreal.

There should be more ter’angreal out there. This makes me think so:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Each night, she could use the One Power to place wards to protect another player. She could either place a ward that protects against One Power-based abilities, or that protects against other abilities.



Carlington, you better have a good reason for investigating mpolo.
Carlington wrote:I have results saying mpolo is town.
Whatever “town” means.

matt96 wrote:I'm not entirely convinced that SirGabriel is telling the truth
I’m not convinced any of you are telling the truth, at least not the entire truth.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:56 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar could have a “good” ter’angreal or he could have lied about having one or about his results.
I'm curious, what is your train of thought here? Because my result was accurate, meaning either I did Cop Madge or I was in the same faction as her, didn't need Cop, so if I'm lying about the result and not about having the ability then it means I Copped someone else and but didn't reveal it, using the opportunity to cover my defense. Is that what you think might have happened or do you have another explanation for your comment there?

bessie’s ter’angreal theory, previously posted here, is that the ter'angreal are under the control of the Black Ajah.

Mod flavor, may support theory:
The ter’angreal were stolen by the Sisters that fled the tower.
Jude’s power came from his use of a ter’angreal.

Timeline:
1. Madge claims she was given the Ebony Dagger N2.
2. bessie is skeptical and makes a smart-ass reply.
3. Sabrar claims he received the Quartz Diviner N1, he copped Madge N2, and the result is that she belongs to Siuan Sanche’s faction (which we now know to be correct). As part of his claim post, he also gives three reasons not to trust his result (possible false inventor giving out rigged inventions, Madge is Godfather, Madge is a false inventor who gave him a naïve/insane cop).
4. Madge claims to be on Team Siuan.

Conclusions:
1. Sabrar was given a good ter’angreal and reported his results truthfully. possible
2. Sabrar was given a false ter’angreal and reported his results truthfully. disproved
3. Sabrar was given a good/false ter’angreal, and decided to lie about his results. Why? Scum!Sabrar was redirected, got a result on a Black Ajah teammate, and needed to create a false result. Why? Because the person that gave him the ter’angreal would expect him to use it, so he needed to create a result. possible
4. Sabrar did not have a ter’angreal, and decided to lie about having/using one. Why? Scum!Sabrar is Black Ajah and is giving out false ter’angreal, and gave a false dagger to Madge. He wants Madge to use it, so he pretends that he too has a good ter’angreal, and gives a result that will convince Madge that it is safe to use the dagger. possible

Note: For #3 or #4 to work, Scum!Sabrar would need to guess Madge’s faction, and risk being wrong. But I don’t think that it is too much of a risk, because in the same post he gave his result he also conveniently presents three reasons not to trust that result.


Gopher of Pern wrote:bessie provides good points, but if SirGabriel is telling the truth, that makes her a very high chance of being scum.

And how do SirGabriel’s results indicate I have a higher chance of being scum than you?
bessie wrote:Black: Jude, Black TBD, Black TBD
Suian: Suian TBD, Madge, N1 recruit TBD, N2 recruit TBD
Elaida: SirGabriel, ahippo, N1 Recruit TBD, N3 recruit TBD
Unaligned: Diemo

TBD: bessie, Carlington, dimochka, Gopher of Pern, matt96, mpolo, Sabrar
If we remove the “confirmed” town and the two lynch candidates, we have one scum in [bessie, Carlington, Gopher of Pern].

Also… wait, what? I’m the one that gave SirGabriel the question. I think scum could have come up with a more ineffectual question. Or ignored the request entirely.


dimochka wrote:That eliminates #1, so Sabrar is very likely either in Siuan or scum.
dimochka, I also agree Sabrar is on Team Siuan or Black Ajah, but for a different reason that I have already noted. [pre-post edit: I see you covered this in your next post]
bessie wrote:This makes me believe on D2 Sabrar was a member of a non-Elaida faction. Could be Suian’s faction or the Black Ajah faction.
Sabrar wrote:At this point I think ahippo's flip would give us the most information, plus he told us that he was an Elaida supporter so fmpov he can no longer be Town in any scenario.


SirGabriel, I’m not sure if copping one player at a time is the best use of your question. There’s a possibility we will run out of days. But I don’t have a better idea and will need to think about it.

Carlington wrote:EBWOP: We can even get multiple cop results, given my ability. I am willing to let the rest of you choose my target tonight.
So why mpolo?

Gopher of Pern wrote:So I have this theory, but to confirm it, I'd have to know everyone's colour of their Ajah.
I would rather not claim my color, but I’ll claim if everyone else does. OK, while I’ve been screwing around with this post for the past couple hours Sabrar and Carlington both claimed. I’m yellow. mpolo, your turn. Gopher of Pern, let’s have your theory while we still have time to discuss it. Reminder to everyone that deadline is on Monday this time.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:10 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:3. My results pm specifically said that I investigated Madge, so I wouldn't know if I was redirected and that's why I didn't list it as a possibility before. So unless someone claims redirector and says that they targeted me N2 we can discard this possibility.
Your claim that your results said you targeted Madge is not proof to me that you are telling the truth. It’s like you didn’t even read what I wrote. Example:

The Black Ajah team is SDK and Sabrar. Sabrar receives an anonymous gift of a Quartz Diviner on N1. He knows that whoever gave him the gift will expect him to use it N2, so he uses it on town kalira. Sabrar is redirected (redirector, bus driver, whatever) and receives a result that SDK is Black Ajah. He doesn’t want to reveal this result, so he instead claims a town result on Madge. Reason for not claiming a town result on kalira is so that if there was a redirect (targeting actions on kalira) or switch (on SDK and kalira), the redirector/switcher would know Sabrar is lying.

Sabrar wrote:4. Your logic is bad, it would not be enough for scum!me to mention possible ways why my result is false because then Madge would know not to use the dagger. I would need a result that is guaranteed to be correct, e.g. claiming Tracker on dimochka.
My logic is sound. The goal is to get Madge to use the dagger. It makes sense to claim a result that would appeal directly to Madge. Claiming a 1-shot tracker on dimochka may have worked too. But thinking about it now, it seems much riskier because by that point dimochka had already claimed, and Diemo and ahippo had already flipped with a watcher/tracker powers.

Sabrar wrote:You seem unwilling to let go of your pet theory even though the basic premise of it (Madge making a scum-slip) was proven to be wrong.
I’m willing to discuss any theory. At least I have been trying to facilitate discussion. And if someone out there is giving out ter’angreal every night, then someone may have received one N3.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:SirGabriel, I’m not sure if copping one player at a time is the best use of your question. There’s a possibility we will run out of days.
How? We have 3 players whose alignment needs to be confirmed (but probably only 2 due to Siuan), SirGabriel cops Carlington to know whether we can trust his result, Carlington cops you or GoP and we're done by process of elimination.

Reasons we could run out of days, in random order. I can probably think of more but this is enough for now.
1. The Black Ajah team can recruit.
2. SirGabriel can be blocked from asking a question.
3. SirGabriel is killed.
4. The Black Ajah team has two kills available, due to not using one last night.
5. Today’s lynch target is Black Ajah and is 1-shot lynch proof and doesn’t die.
6. There is a third party with a kill.

mpolo wrote:I began as an Accepted and chose Blue last night, though I haven't received a new power email yet.
This doesn’t make sense to me for multiple reasons. If you were the universal town backup, you should have taken over Diemo’s or ahippo’s power earlier in the game. If you had a choice to take a power or wait, why wait until N3 when the game is almost over? And why choose Madge’s power, which if you use tonight might not even kick in until N5? And why didn’t you receive your power confirmation yet? This doesn’t seem to me like the type of mistake this mod would make. And it makes even less sense to me that part of the game mechanics was that you couldn’t select a power until N3 and use it for the first time on N4 (or maybe even N5). It’s too late for a 12 player game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:32 am UTC

mpolo wrote:I could have taken the brown power or ahippo's power, but they didn't impress me as powers that were particularly useful. Alviarin's power was completely useless to me as town. So I waited to claim a power that is actually useful.
So if you claimed a power on N3, as you said you did, how did you know Madge’s color or power? Her role reveal wasn’t until D4.

mpolo wrote:Bessie's theory about a busdriver/redirector is interesting, but do we have any evidence that one is in the game? This would also be needed to explain why an evil ter'angreal passer-outer would send a ter'angreal to Madge.
No we don’t have any evidence of a bus driver or redirector. It’s one of four possibilities I suggested in response to Sabrar’s question. And as to why an evil ter’angrael passer-outer would give Madge a dagger, I think I’ve covered that at least twice.

Sabrar wrote:How in hell would redirector know that I was lying? They don't know that SDK is my scum-mate, they don't know that I received Black Ajah as a result, they don't know if their redirect was successful (e.g. could have been roleblocked),
If a redirector redirected you from kalira to anyone else in the game, or a bus driver switched SDK and kalira, and you claimed a result on kalira, they would know you are lying. It would be irrelevant why you were lying, just the fact that you were lying would be suspicious.

Sabrar wrote:they don't know how my results pm was worded.
No one knows how your pm was worded. I’ve already said that I’m not taking your, or anyone else’s for that matter, statement that they received info in a pm, as proof that they actually received a pm with the claimed information.


Sabrar wrote:You keep bringing up convoluted scenarios that can easily be disproved because at this point no one will be claiming redirector (assuming townies don't lie). And if scum has redirector then they wouldn't have targeted scum!me.

I brought it up? I was responding to this:
Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar could have a “good” ter’angreal or he could have lied about having one or about his results.
I'm curious, what is your train of thought here?

Oh and this:
Sabrar wrote:No, as mentioned above that is covered by the 'he could have lied about having one' part of her analysis and I understand the logic there. The thing I wanted to ask her about is the 'lying about his results' part of her sentence that I underlined, how it is differentiated from the other possibilities.
And the reason I’m still talking about it is that you asked me a question to which I am responding. Again.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:and Diemo and ahippo had already flipped with a watcher/tracker powers.
That doesn't mean anything, dimochka claimed Vigilante, Madge claimed to have received 1-shot vigilante so power-duplication was definitely possible.
Duplication, maybe, but three watcher/tracker powers is more questionable.


Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:At least I have been trying to facilitate discussion.
No, you are chasing ghosts because of some hidden agenda.
Perhaps I have been chasing ghosts. At least I’m talking. OK, if you insist, new topic!

Reasons We Should Lynch Sabrar Instead Of matt
1. matt’s double vote won’t stop him from being lynched tomorrow, so it does not need to be taken into consideration for the purposes of today’s lynch.
2. If matt is scum, he doesn’t have a night power, so he can’t use a power against town at night. (Note: matt might have a ter’angreal and he might be able to perform the factional night kill. But so would Sabrar or Scum #3.)
3. Sabrar has not claimed a power. If he is scum he might be able to use a power against town tonight.
4. I’ve already speculated that Sabrar belongs to Team Siuan or the Black Ajah, and Siuan hasn’t claimed him yet. matt hasn’t been claimed by anyone either, but he also hasn’t revealed any sign that he belongs to a team.


Re: Gopher of Pern’s color theory.
I’ve been working on theories involving the colors for a while. See this post. So I think your theory lines up with many of my thoughts. I’m a little wary of mpolo because I think his claim is possible but his content is questionable. Also, since you group yourself with matt, you clear yourself tomorrow if you’re both scum. I believe Carlington has some kind of cop power, even if he hasn’t been completely truthful about it. It could be Carlington is a scummy role cop, however I’m not yet discarding the possibility of Carlington being town. Or the possibility that Siuan is an NPC and another Blue is the Team Siuan leader/recruiter. But tomorrow, we will definitely know which one of [Sabrar, matt] is Black Ajah, and we may additionally know the other’s color (if we lynch town), so things may fall into place.

Sabrar wrote:You think that jimbob would create a game where we could easily determine scum by their false-claims?
This is a valid point.

Gopher of Pern wrote:The additional information hinges on what someone said. I do not trust that person any more.
I’m just acknowledging that I’ve read your comment.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 12, 2017 3:09 am UTC

I can confirm Carlington has at least one everything-cop. Or we’re scum together. He knows my name.

Anyone that doubts my color claim should read this post, my final post on D1. I was comfortably leading the votals with 5 votes, deadline was in 3 hours, and I was leaving for work so would not be posting again in this game. Or so I thought.


Carlington, you better be town. I did what you asked me to do.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 12, 2017 11:55 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Why did you think that the black Ajah can be false recruited?
I still think it’s possible that Siuan and Elaida can recruit a Black Ajah and believe they have done so successfully, but the Black Ajah is still Black Ajah. And my original post was on D2; on D3 SirGabriel posted this:
SirGabriel wrote:My role PM says that not all players can be recruited to my faction and that a successful recruit does not necessarily mean the recruited player's win condition changed. So my guess is either cult can recruit anyone (Black Ajah or otherwise) who does not already belong to the other cult, but any Black Ajah who is recruited would keep their Black Ajah win condition and factional kill.
So why did you think the Black Ajah couldn't be false recruited?

Sabrar wrote:If I target kalira with my Cop power, get redirected to SDK and my results pm is worded like 'Your target appears to be X' then I wouldn't know that I've been redirected and would claim my result on kalira. The redirector would suspect that the result really refers to SDK but he shouldn't assume that I'm lying based on just the fact that I reported my result on kalira.
I think we have another misunderstanding. My belief is that if you target kalira and get redirected to SDK, you receive the result “SDK is scum” not “kalira is scum”. But I could be wrong about how this type of role usually works, or the role may function differently depending on the mod’s interpretation of the role.

Sabrar wrote:I blocked ahippo N1, used Cop instead of my ability N2, blocked matt96 N3. I thought matt96 was scum and as noone would normally roleblock/track a proven Double-voter during the night I thought it would be likely that he would perform the factional kill. Were I scum I would have blocked SirGabriel to deny the information.
Why did you try to block the Black Ajah factional kill? As a survivor, don’t you want the game to end as quickly as possible? And the Black Ajah would most likely be aiming for Siuan or Elaida. If your win condition is what you claimed it is, wouldn’t you want that kill to go through?

SirGabriel wrote:Also, it looks like a lot of content has been posted while I was away; can someone give a brief summary of what happened and unofficial votals?

There were a few claims. Here's the latest summary.
Spoiler:
Faction 1: Black Ajah
Black/White, Alviarin Freidhen, JudeMorrigan
Black
Black

Faction 2: Siuan Supporters
No color, Suian Sanche
Blue, Madge
N1 Recruit
N2 recruit


Faction 3: Elaida Supporters
Red, Elaida a’Roihan, SirGabriel
White, ahippo
N1 recruit
N3 recruit

Independent
Red, Teslyn Baradon, Sabrar

Unaligned until recruited:
Brown, Diemo
Yellow, bessie
Green, dimochka
Grey, matt
Grey, Gopher of Pern
Red, Carlington
Accepted/Blue, mpolo

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:50 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I was disheartened to see that you (general you, not specifically you) let matt96 control the lynch
I made my final D3 post approximately 12 hours before deadline. I had a very early appointment and couldn’t post Tuesday morning before I left. And I don’t post at work (I tried to check on the thread but just couldn’t squeeze it in before my lunch time). I have been pushing everyone to not just post, but post with enough time to discuss the content before deadline. We have a week but it seems like a lot always happens in the final hours. I think it’s just the nature of the game. For this game, those final hours happen at a time when I can’t be there.

And as for letting matt control the lynch (which he didn’t really, as it looks like mpolo and dimochka were both around at deadline), I didn’t have a strong not-Black-Ajah read on anyone (except SirGabriel and dimochka and neither was a lynch candidate). And I didn’t disagree with lynching Madge. She was one of my scum picks. If I voted it would have been for you or her. I don't know if it's really a situation where matt controlled the lynch as much as one where there wasn't an objection to Madge.

Gopher of Pern wrote:bessie, please stop assuming I say things. I was enquiring as to how you came to your conclusion before information from SirGabriel came to light. I fully believe that the recruiting factions can recruit black Ajah. You seem to have more information than vanilla town. That's all I'm saying (and have been saying).

I just reread all your posts.
Spoiler:
D1
1. Confirmation
2. Joke vote
3. Questions bessie on setup spec.
4. Reply to bessie.
5. Reply to Sabrar about bessie.
6. Player analysis, votes bessie.

D2
7. Reflections on D1, still suspicious of bessie.
8. Reply to Sabrar about bessie.
9. Town-scum list, vote for ahippo, bessie is second scummiest.
10. Reply to ahippo, replies to Sabrar about bessie and matt.
11. Does not mention bessie; this is a first.
12. Replies to Sabrar, mpolo, Jude.
13. Comment on ahippo’s claim.

D3
14. Reflections on D2, organizing claims.
15. Analysis of “non-confirmed-town”, ending with a vote for surprise, bessie!
16. Reply to Sabrar.
17. Thinking bessie-Sabrar scum team, votes Sabrar.
18. Reply to Sabrar, still thinking bessie-Sabrar scum team.
19. Reply to Sabrar.
20. Reply to bessie.
21. Reply to Sabrar.
22. Votes for matt, mentions possible scum pairs (matt/Sabrar, bessie/Carlington, bessie/matt).
23. Pushing Carlington for info re: bessie.

D4
24. Nothing to claim.
25. Votes matt, mentions bessie has a high chance of being scum.
26. Unvote, asks for color claims.
27. Updated color list.
28. Updated color list.
29. Final color claim list with color theory.
30. Cryptic reply to enquiry as to why bessie has a high chance of being scum.
31. Asks Carlington if he’s confident he can detect Black (Carlington claimed to investigate bessie, SirGabriel, and mpolo). Questions bessie on an earlier setup speculation.
32. Reply to bessie, Sabrar.
You mention me a lot. Why are you so focused on trying to force me into a scum pairing (see #7, 8, 15, 17, 18, 22, 23, 30)?

And I have very little information that has not been publicly posted in this thread, just my role. And that’s not even a secret, because I’ve been investigated and some of that information has been posted. I don’t have an investigative role. No one had given me a message or a gift. And no one has recruited me. I guess I’m too scummy for anyone to want me on their team. I don’t have any more information than an unrecruited vanilla town. I just have a lot of ideas. And I share them. Maybe one is good, or will lead to something better if we discuss it. I’m that annoying “what if” and “why” kid that you want to just shut up already. I try to get people talking because that's the way we're gong to catch scum.

Side comment on bessie’s real life.
Spoiler:
I’m a quality engineer. Much of my day is spent asking what if and doing something called 5-Whys (google if curious).

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:12 pm UTC

I’ve been pouring over this again looking for well, anything. I found another reverence to the Black Ajah in the flavor that we missed, probably because JudeMorrigan and ahippo were out of the game.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:“It’s Alviarin Sedai, Mother. I was supposed to have instruction with her, but when she didn’t answer her door, I thought I’d best find out was going on, so I went and found Sheriam Sedai. She went into the room, and there was Alviarin lying on the floor. She wasn’t quite dead, I think, but the Mistress said that I should inform you immediately, and give you this. I think it was in her hand, or something.”
The internet tells me Sheriam Bayanar is Blue/Black. I don’t know if this is important yet. I’m wondering if this character is in the game, and if maybe this is actually Sabrar’s role.

I think Sabrar’s claims would also work out if he was Black Ajah, not independent.

Vote: Sabrar

mpolo wrote:Matt clinched the Madge lynch and has been overly quiet. I still think that a double vote is unusual as a scum power, but the other theory would be that he was Siuan, who would not likely attack her own chance at winning without making some kind of revelation (forcing lynch of a supporter).
What makes you think matt is Siuan? This is from Gopher of Pern’s theory that there is only one of each color that is non-Black, and would require GoP to be the “real” Grey.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:48 pm UTC

I wasn’t putting that much importance on the flavor at first, but a lot of the revealed information seems to be falling in line with the flavor. And why can’t you be Blue, and why can’t a Blue be Black?

Sabrar wrote:I blocked ahippo N1, used Cop instead of my ability N2, blocked matt96 N3. I thought matt96 was scum and as noone would normally roleblock/track a proven Double-voter during the night I thought it would be likely that he would perform the factional kill. Were I scum I would have blocked SirGabriel to deny the information.
Ok, alternate theory. You’re Black Ajah and your power is that you give out false ter’angreal. N2 you give Madge a ter’angreal because you hope she will kill SirGabriel (and maybe herself if it is booby trapped). You invent a story about copping Madge in case you are seen visiting her. Your story also serves the purpose of convincing Madge the ter’angreal are good and safe to use. N3 you attempt the mafia factional kill and are blocked.

No one has claimed the inventor power yet. So from my point of view, it could be Sabrar, Gopher of Pern, Carlington, or mpolo.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:50 am UTC

Monday is fine with me.

I have no results to share. No one sent me anything.

Gopher of Pern, you have one post to convince me not to vote for you. And please respond to this post.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:51 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:You just always seemed to be on the point with what is going on.
Do I really give you the impression of someone that knows what is going on?

Gopher of Pern wrote:Your role is still secret. I have no idea what you do.
No, I think you’re much too good of a player to not have at least a guess as to what my role might be.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Someone visited you last night, perchance?
No one visited me, gave me a gift, invitation, message, etc. of which I am aware.

dimochka wrote:I don't really understand what happened. I was given an ivory statue N3 which was supposed to protect someone from death. When I used it on SirGabriel on N4, he died. I don't know if I somehow killed him but I wanted to get this out there early on. Maybe I was roleblocked? Or maybe this statue isn't actually a protection or something else bastardly? People with flavor - ideas?

dimochka, I believe there are two types of kills. Those which use the One Power and those which use ter’angreal (or another object). And no, Gopher of Pern, I do not have any inside information. This is from Madge's role reveal.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Each night, she could use the One Power to place wards to protect another player. She could either place a ward that protects against One Power-based abilities, or that protects against other abilities. Her target would become immune to the next use of that type of ability to target them, even if it wasn’t that night.

Did your Ivory Statue ter’angreal protect against attacks by the One Power or from attacks by objects? And which was your vigilante power? Did you use the One Power to kill Jude? Or did you have a weapon like Madge did?

Note that I have previously suggested that the Black Ajah use/distribute the ter’angreal and that they may be false and possibly booby trapped. Here.
Here.
Here.
Here.
Here.
Here.
And here.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:25 am UTC

OK, some things I’m thinking about.

Ter’angreal. I finally read the D5 flavor closely.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:“She’s alive, Leane, but I doubt for long, without help. Go and get some Yellow Sisters and bring one of the Tower’s angreal with you on the way back.
I’m not sure if angreal and ter’angreal are supposed to be the same thing or different things (they are on different pages in the Wiki). If I remember I will ask someone with flavor knowledge tomorrow.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Note who else championed the idea of corrupt ter-angreals? Sabrar.
No, he disagreed with my theory that the ter’angreal were under the control of the Black Ajah. This in retrospect would make me more convinced of my theory except for the D5 flavor post.

Gopher of Pern wrote:As for dim, I have no idea why your protection didn't work. Unless the final scum has an unblockable power? We've already gotten the roleblocker and the leader, the third one often has some sort of unblockability to them. (Yes, thats a word.)
I agree with this as a possibility.

dimochka wrote:Yes, my vig power was the One Power. I just don't exactly know the difference between One power and not One power...
Still pretty flavor blind but the way I understand it is One Power is something you use by channeling alone. So you can kill/investigate/protect etc using the One Power. See the role reveals for Madge, Sabrar, and SirGabriel; they were One Power users. The “not One Power” is from manipulating an object. See role reveal for JudeMorrigan; he was using a magic tablet to send his messages. Similarly, Madge wouldn’t have used the One Power to kill, she would have used the Ebony Dagger Ter’angreal. So if mpolo protected SirGabriel against One Power kills, he could have blocked a dimochka-One-Power-kill but not a Madge-dagger-kill.

[Note: role reveals for Diemo, ahippo do not say whether source of their game powers were the One Power or ter'angreal.]

mpolo wrote:I tried to ward SirGabriel from OnePower effects. Obviously, either it didn't work, or he was attacked by "other effects", despite the flavor indicating pretty clearly a One Power attack.
Agree that the flavor does suggest a One Power attack.

Theories:
1. SirGabriel was targeted with an unblockable kill.
2. Two kills targeted SirGabriel. One was blocked by dimochka, one bypassed mpolo’s protection.
3. dimochka is lying and did not protect SirGabriel, but tried to kill him with an object, which bypassed mpolo’s protection.
4. SirGabriel was poisoned N3 and it killed him N4.
5. SirGabriel tried to use a booby trapped ter’angreal and it killed him.

Gopher of Pern wrote:In what way does Carlington's cop result make him towny?
His power seems a bit strong for scum if it is an every night power. Interestingly, I have yet to see solid evidence his power wasn’t one-shot.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:39 pm UTC

mpolo wrote: I joined a faction the night before getting my power, I think N3, but I don't have time to check now.

mpolo, please check and confirm you were recruited on N3.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:06 am UTC

Well it seems discussion has died down, so I guess it’s up to me. Here’s some thoughts.

I’m still struggling with reads, as I have been throughout this game. Early in the game, it was possibly because of all the unaligned players. At present it is probably because all of you now belong to a faction, and you are unwilling to share information, or even contribute scum hunting because you need to not only kill the last Black Ajah, you need to figure out how to kill the members of the other team. The revealed win conditions imply that Team Siuan and Team Elaida need to eliminate the other team’s leaders or maybe the entire team. If the latter is true, then we are in for a potentially long game if we kill Black and eliminate the night kill.

Win conditions
Spoiler:
Diemo
You win when all threats to the stability of the White Tower have been eliminated and a strong leader is in place.

Jude
His win condition was to control the leadership of the White Tower or to eliminate all other players (or if nothing could prevent that). His faction controls a night kill, but only after one of the faction members was killed. His faction did not have any chat abilities.

Sabrar
His win condition was to control the leadership of the White Tower or to eliminate all other players (or if nothing could prevent that). His faction controls a night kill, but only after one of the faction members was killed. His faction did not have any chat abilities.

SirGabriel
His win condition was to eliminate all threats to Elaida’s leadership (unaligned players are not threats). Each night, he could recruit an additional member, if a faction member was not lynched. His faction did not have any chat abilities.

ahippo
His win condition was to eliminate all threats to Elaida’s leadership (unaligned players are not threats). Each night, his faction could recruit an additional member, if a faction member was not lynched. His faction did not have any chat abilities.

Madge
Her win condition was to eliminate all threats to Siuan’s leadership (unaligned players are not threats). Each night, her faction could recruit an additional member, if a faction member was not lynched. Her faction did not have any chat abilities.

Team Siuan and Team Elaida members: you need to contribute to the discussion and decide this lynch. You all probably have enough information to determine everyone’s alignment. If you aren’t going to talk just vote already.

Last remaining scum: I think you made a mistake killing SirGabriel. You should have kept him alive so that you could play him and Siuan against each other. Now that he is dead you are Team Siuan’s main threat. If we fail to lynch you today your best chance of winning is to kill someone unaligned tonight, so that the remaining two factions continue to fight each other.

mpolo wrote:Possibility 6. My ward protects against any use of the One Power. Dimochka's protection was a One Power effect and was blocked by my ward, which was taken down by that protection (it protects one time and then is gone). Then someone came in and killed SirGabriel without having to bypass protection.
I don’t agree that dimochka’s ter’angreal was a One Power ability. But this is a guess, not something I know, and I may be wrong.

mpolo wrote:@GoP: Carlington is not completely off the hook, as far as I'm concerned, but you are more suspicious at the moment.
Why? Please explain your suspicions of Gopher of Pern. And Carlington. How about on everyone while you’re at it?

Carlington, you have one post to convince me not to vote for you. What is mpolo’s name?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 18, 2017 11:53 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:I am starting to suspect that my power doesn't show me if someone is Black Ajah

It doesn’t matter what color you get for your result if you get alignment. All the Black Ajah members have a cover color anyway. Reminder, you previously claimed this:
Carlington wrote:Apparently, though, what I claimed may not have been what I meant. According to mafiawiki, normally rolecop just gets the role name, nothing else. Is that the case? Because I get the entire role as a result - name, power, Ajah, wincon, alignment.

You did get a town read on mpolo, didn’t you?
Carlington wrote:I have results saying mpolo is town.

So, what exactly do you mean by town? Note that mpolo claims he was recruited N3. Don't forget to cover that when you answer.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 19, 2017 6:42 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:Busy weekend for me, this is my first chance to check. mpolo is Robecca Zariah. And, while we're at it, will the real Celestine Principia please stand up?
So matt and dimochka, which of you is Celestine Principia? It must be one of you since except for N1, it seems like Carlington only investigates confirmed town.

N1: bessie
N2: SirGabriel
N3: mpolo
N4: unknown

bessie wrote:
Carlington wrote:I have results saying mpolo is town.

So, what exactly do you mean by town?
Carlington, why can’t I get a straight answer to this question? And what exactly were your results for mpolo (name, power, Ajah, wincon, alignment)?

dimochka wrote:We already know mpolo is town from the actions preceding d2. So unless black ajah can recruit, which does not seem in any way likely, mpolo is still town.
Yes I know. Carlington investigated him N3. I’m interested in his results.

dimochka wrote: Now if I understand correctly, matt and mpolo are essentially confirmed town. I'm not confirmed but pretty close to that. Do we have any specific proof as to the towniness of GoP / Bessie / Carlington?
No, we do not have any proof of the towniness of Gopher of Pern, bessie, or Carlington. Carlington copped me but if I were you I wouldn’t accept that as proof. One person in this group of three is Black Ajah and one is probably Siuan Sanche. If a wagon starts on Siuan their teammates should jump in and save them.

dimochka wrote:As far as I see it we can mislynch once (not that I want to do that) and still be ok, and especially so if there's a way to keep matt alive.
mpolo has a protective power. But he’s in Elaida’s faction so it might not be in his best interests to save matt.

Approximately 24 hours until deadline. I’m working on a longer post.


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