A lot has happened since my last post. Updated setup speculation,12 players, initial distribution:
Faction 1: Black Ajah
Black/White, Alviarin Freidhen, possible Godfather, cops as White. Recruiter, controls Myddralls.
Power speculation: D1 recruit, for game mechanics (ensure game doesn’t end D1). Alternate recruit/night kill. Can recruit any other player in the game.
Faction 2: Suian Supporters
Blue, Suian Sanche, SirGabriel. Recruiter, alternate night or limited.
Blue, Leane Sharif, ahippo.
Power speculation: Recruit on Faction 3 or unaligned Red will fail. Can be secretly recruited by Faction 1. Can false recruit Faction 1.
Faction 3: Elaida Supporters
Red, Elaida a’Roihan, Recruiter.
Power speculation: Recruit on Faction 2 or unaligned Blue will fail. Can be secretly recruited by Faction 1. Can false recruit Faction 1.
Unaligned until recruited:
Brown, Diemo (tracker/watcher)
Grey, Matt (double voter)
I've been struggling with reads this game, maybe because of all the potentially unaligned players. So instead of a town-scum list, here's my least-scummy to most-scummy list.
Sabrar - I just don’t have time to go through all of Sabrar’s content right now. I will see if I can get to it before deadline, but he’s not on my lynch list today.
Sabrar wrote:He is basically voting for a character who is as close to an Innocent Child as anyone can be without actual mod-reveal.
Without a mod reveal what purpose would this role serve? Oh, and I don't agree.
matt96 – Not a lot to go on. He has a townie power, but this power might also make him an appealing recruit. Not on my lynch list for today, but I don't think I would try to prevent it.
Carlington – One really long reads post five days ago, not much other content. Carlington, you need some updated reads. I don’t have enough to make a read one way or the other.
mpolo – Waited until halfway through D2 to do any actual scumhunting. I think he’s probably not Black, or he wouldn’t have revealed that he received a note.
mpolo wrote: For me, being in Elaida's faction is almost as bad as being Black Ajah, if that's the case. However, we haven't had any hint of how Amyrlins are changed, so they are certainly a lesser threat at the moment.
Possible Suian recruit, but there’s a small possibility he’s a Black recruit.
mpolo wrote:Vote: Madge
Primarily to get an alternative to ahippo out there.
Why did you believe this was necessary?
JudeMorrigan – Has posted a reasonable amount of content, including player reads, but it should be noted that his scum reads are flavor-driven. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, as I am still pretty flavor blind (I look up what I need for this game), and I don’t yet have a solid opinion on how much the game’s structure depends on the flavor.
dimochka- Another player that hasn’t posted enough content to get a decent read. I get a slight ping from this.
dimochka wrote: my role correlates somewhat with mpolo's suggested list (what colors would result in what roles). i don't actually particularly care about revealing my own role as it's not that great, BUT since mine correlates, i expect that potential cops/vigs/doctors/jailers would too.
It reads to me like a subtle appeal for us to ignore him. Possible Black Ajah.
Gopher of Pern – Possible N1 Suian recruit, because he is so focused on saving SirGabriel. Also, SirGabriel may have recruited him because of his focus on bessie D1 (see below). But if he was recruited by SirGabriel, why switch from bessie to ahippo? Anyway, to answer this:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Sabrar, I wish there was a way to confirm if they were telling the truth, but in absence of that, would it not be better to lynch ahippo, and if they do indeed support Siuan, then we all just follow SirGabriel the next day?
Not necessarily. SirGabriel is the recruiter, not ahippo.
Madge – My pick for Alvairin. Unfortunately has not had a lot of time to catch up since she replaced, but I still think her content has been scummy.
Madge wrote: my role is a bit complicated and that's made even worse by the fact that I don't have any idea about flavour
OK, I have been trying not to meta-game the game (or the mod) since my exchange with moody about it on D1, but this statement that your role is complicated really makes me suspicious.
Madge wrote:That said, he *did* more or less admit that he was cult. Aren't cults a bad thing? Remind me why we shouldn't just lynch them both ASAP????
I don’t like this comment. We haven’t even determined if the cult(s) are the scum factions yet, so this appears to me as a effort by Madge to focus attention away from herself. Scummy.
ahippo – Claim by SirGabriel that they are aligned, and that it is a pro-town faction. I believe the aligned part. It makes sense to me, because it fits with ahippo’s odd vote for me on D1 (following SirGabriel’s lead) despite not having a scum read on me. Although I guess he did say in a couple of different places that he was a bad scum hunter and not to expect much.
ahippo wrote:You've been making way more assumptions than I ever did. If a game did have that much town, anti-NK roles it would be horrifically imbalanced. I think it's highly unlikely for there to be more than one person who had a reason to claim, thus there would probably be no counter-claim.
I feel this statement is irreconcilable with someone who read the previous 18 games instead of posting in this one on D1. I don’t have time to go through them all but probably like three
were vanilla enough to only have one
ahippo wrote: If you're a doctor and you wake up to find no night kill, you've got a pretty good reason to believe you did it right.
Have you listened to nothing that I’ve tried to explain to you?
ahippo wrote: If there were a roleblocker who didn't share that information, it would leave town very in the dark and much more likely to lynch another townie, leading to a much worse scenario D3.
And my reply to this is that you are role fishing. Again.
Conflicting content. Role fishing, and using false information to support it. Scummy.
As a bonus, I’ll answer this for you:
ahippo wrote:I'll end with a claim. Not my Ajah, but my power. I have the ability to read weaves. N2, I can read what powers were used on my target N1. Assuming I survive the day, I'm open to suggestions on whom I should target with this ability.
Target mpolo. Should I explain why too? Or perhaps he is also in your group?
SirGabriel – One thing that really stands out to me is that he tried to cast doubt on content of mpolo’s note, but not on the existence of the note itself.
SirGabriel wrote:Also, the flavor of my role PM mentioned that someone is spreading rumors about the non-existent Black Ajah, so I think Elaida's faction is the closest thing we have to a mafia.
As pointed out, contradicts opening post flavor, but I don’t think that in itself is a big deal for me, because I’m not convinced that everything in the flavor is meant to be more than flavor. What I really don’t like about SirGabriel is his singular focus on me D1, and on D2 until he needed to try another approach to save ahippo.
SirGabriel, I think you might be a scummy Black Ajah mafia. Or you may really be Suian Sanche of the “Suian Supporter” faction. It kinda really doesn’t matter from my point of view. You and ahippo did your best to get me lynched D1. You also tried to get me lynched D2, using I guess the reasons you gave on page two, for my content on page 1. You won’t reply to my requests to confirm your reasons for wanting me lynched. You are totally uninterested in not trying to get me lynched. You will probably try to get me lynched D3, and I don’t really care. What I know is that there is a mountain of evidence that you and ahippo are not going to invite me to join your faction. So seriously, why should I want your team to win, when I'm not going to be part of that team?Vote: SirGabriel
Would consider switching to ahippo.