Note: parts of this post were rendered irrelevant upon rereading Jude's role reveal, but I left them in so you can see my thought process.
Gopher of Pern wrote:What information do we have that there is a recruiting faction aside from SirGabriels?
We have mpolo's note, plus we have no evidence that there is any kill power in the game other than dimochka's one-shot vig. No one was killed by mafia the first two nights, and no one has yet flipped/claimed doctor/jailer/bulletproof/other-kill-preventing-role, so either we have at least one protective role that has been very effective so far, or the "mafia-like faction" has no kill power (which could explain why jimbob didn't simply call it "mafia" when I asked how many were in the mafia).
Gopher of Pern wrote:Do you lose your recruit if you are NK'd SirGabriel?
If I die, then someone else becomes faction leader and gains the recruit power. I don't know whether I could successfully recruit anyone the night I died
, but if I'm correct that the mafia has no nightkill, that's not really relevant
Gopher of Pern wrote:SirGabriel, I don't think that your theory about there only being one of each Ajah holds water, as there are two revealed whites there, although one of the whites was a black.
Yeah, I realized somewhere in the middle of D2 that I was probably wrong about that, but my that point we had already agreed not to do a massclaim, so I saw no reason to mention it.
Gopher of Pern wrote:If no one else got a letter, that would mean mpolo was not a member of the black ajah in D2. So mpolo is looking pretty townie. (Jude could only send messages to people not of their faction, and their faction had no chat abilities, so the chances of that being a bluff is vanishingly small.)
Ok, just checked, and the information we have about the black ajah recruiting came from the black ajah (mpolos note from Jude). So, that makes me think that the black ajah cannot recruit. They'd be pretty powerful if they had a recruit and a kill.
Apparently I didn't read Jude's role very closely, ignore what I said above about mafia not having a kill. I agree that this means mpolo is probably not mafia.
I guess the only real evidence we have that there are multiple recruiting factions is the phrase "unaligned with any faction" from Diemo's role reveal, which in my mind suggests that there are multiple factions they can become aligned with. Also, my win condition is essentially the same as the unaligned except that it specifies Siuan and her supporters as being a threat to the stability of the White Tower; I'm assuming Siuan similarly seeks to eliminate all threats to the White Tower including Elaida and her supporters. If that is correct, then Siuan's win condition would probably be much harder to achieve than mine if she started with only one or two supporters and could not recruit.