Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

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SirGabriel
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:10 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I received an anonymous note last night that the Black Ajah is using Myrddralls, who can Turn us without our consent. If this is indeed the case, the lack of deaths last night is somewhat disturbing.

Anonymous notes don't necessarily mean much. Do you have any evidence that the note is telling the truth?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:56 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:Do you have any evidence that the note is telling the truth?
That is such a strange question. How could mpolo have evidence of that, unless he is Black Ajah or was recruited by them, in which case he obviously won't admit it.

It's possible that mpolo received more relevant information that he has chosen not to share yet, so I just wanted to double check.
What are the chances that a town-aligned player could know the information contained in the note and anonymously tell someone about it this early in the game? I think it's more likely that the note is a hoax send by either the mafia or an independent.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:24 pm UTC

bessie wrote:I never did get a reply from SirGabriel on my read here. SirGabriel, I said I was suspicious of you and I gave reasons. I accused you of not presenting a valid case for your vote on me. I voted for you. And nothing? Guess you thought you wouldn’t need to reply because I would be gone. Sorry if my non-lynch is inconvenient for you.

I thought the reasoning behind my actions was clear, but apparently you disagree. I interpreted ahippo's question as something he asked out of curiosity which had no bearing on the game, and since I didn't have the flavor knowledge to give a serious answer (unless my answer was to say that I couldn't give a serious answer), I answered with a joke. As to your comment on colours being important, of course they are. Black is bad, red and blue also seem to be important. But what's the difference between brown and gray? I have no idea, and I have no evidence that it matters. If I recall correctly, there's only been one post so far that suggested that there might be a particular importance to each individual color such that remembering every single color on the list would matter.
And regarding my vote, you were being very defensive. The thing that pinged me the most was your FoS on me for seemingly no reason except that you thought it didn't matter whether dimochka's vote was serious. Then I pointed out that you were the one who first suggested that it mattered whether dimochka's vote was serious, and I voted for you, and you turned your FoS into a vote without replying to that argument, giving me even more reason to keep my vote on you.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:42 pm UTC

Analysis post:

ahippo - A lot of setup speculation based on flavor, some analysis of other games, vote on bessie because her flip would be helpful even though he doesn't think she's scum. Unless I missed something, absolutely no reads on anyone other than bessie. I don't think this is how a townie would play, but I also don't think it's how scum!ahippo would play, since it's generally to scum's advantage to make at least some effort to appear townie (or, should that prove too difficult, to lurk). So at the moment I'm inclined to think he's third party.

bessie - I'll admit that she has some decent content now, but that doesn't make up for everything that pinged me about her before. I have nothing else to say that I haven't said before. Scummy.

Carlington - Not much content D1. Good analysis post D2. Slightly townie.

dimochka - Suspicious of bessie and ahippo, voted bessie but unvoted before day end. No content yet D2. Neutral.

Gopher of Pern - Voted bessie for being overly defensive. Not much D1 content other than a not-very-detailed analysis post. On D2, still suspicious of bessie, and also of Jude and matt for saving bessie. Townie.

JudeMorrigan - Some setup speculation based on flavor. Not-very-useful town-to-scum list. Finds bessie townie and ahippo scummy (or at least likely non-town). Then votes Diemo, not for lurking but for one comment about it being possible that someone other than Black is the mafia (which is not an unreasonable comment for a flavor-knowledgeable townie to make, especially if he missed the one mention of the Black Ajah in the opening flavor). Slightly scummy.

matt96 - Very little content. Soft-claims double vote, which he uses to try to save bessie/lynch Diemo. I would call him slightly scummy if it weren't for the fact that mafia with a double vote is overpowered.

moody7277 - Initially thinks bessie is likely town, later gets more suspicious of her, but ultimately votes Diemo for lurking. Puts ahippo at top of town-to-scum list for no apparent reason. Expresses surprise at Diemo's "unaligned with any faction" flip - probably means moody is part of a non-town faction. Slightly scummy.

mpolo - Not convinced by case against bessie, responds to ahippo's questions, claims to have received an anonymous note. Everything else he says concerns flavor. Never voted. Likely non-town, possibly scum.

Sabrar - Lots of short posts, lots of questions for other players - consistent with his playstyle as either scum or town. Voted bessie, then switched to Diemo because bessie's content improved. Neutral.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:32 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:- unwilling to reconsider his stance regarding bessie, although he admits that her content is decent now;

False. I am willing to reconsider it, but she has yet to provide any justification for the things I found scummy. Scum can, and often do, produce good content, so we can't just ignore scummy actions because of good content.
Sabrar wrote:- I think he misrepresents moody's question about factions when he calls it 'surprise' and jumps straight to a conclusion;

Unless I am mistaken, "unaligned" is this game's equivalent of "town." moody's question suggests that he had not already come to this conclusion. So either this game is way too complicated for the number of players, or moody is unaligned/town but for some reason hasn't realized the two are essentially synonymous in this game, or moody didn't realize unaligned=town because he is in some other faction and thus only knew of one unaligned player (Diemo) instead of the two (Diemo and himself) he would have known of if he were unaligned. I think the last option is the most likely.
Sabrar wrote:- no real explanation for most of his reads, just a quick summary of people's content. This is a pet peeve of mine, the problem here is that we can't really tell what you base your opinions on so can't judge whether they are justified

My reads are generally connected to my content summary. If I have a clear enough read to explain in detail why I'm placing them where I am, I will.
Sabrar wrote:- having very few townie-reads, as mentioned before this is more indicative of scum who needs a reason to jump unto any wagon they want.

I had 20% of the living players (excluding myself) as either townie or slightly townie. If you look at my analysis posts for the last few games in which I was town, you'll get similar percentages (23%, 25%, and 10%). I'm not a great scum hunter, which means I'm also not great at getting accurate town reads.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Jan 28, 2017 1:43 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:False. I am willing to reconsider it, but she has yet to provide any justification for the things I found scummy. Scum can, and often do, produce good content, so we can't just ignore scummy actions because of good content.
Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks to me like you are saying that you will find her scummy no matter what she does until that point is explained. So you are basing your whole case against her on one specific thing while ignoring everything else.

I'm not ignoring anything. I look at her posts and I see a couple of scummy things, and some good content which could come from either scum or town, but nothing that is clearly townie. If she does something that I consider clearly townie, or if future flips suggest that her content is a sincere attempt at scumhunting, then I will certainly reconsider my opinion of her. And I will also reconsider it if she ever explains those actions which I found scummy. But, at least until we have more flips, having good content is not going to be enough to convince me of her towniness.

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:So either this game is way too complicated for the number of players, or moody is unaligned/town but for some reason hasn't realized the two are essentially synonymous in this game, or moody didn't realize unaligned=town because he is in some other faction and thus only knew of one unaligned player (Diemo) instead of the two (Diemo and himself) he would have known of if he were unaligned.
Didn't it occur to you that moody just wanted to see what information others might have about the setup, without revealing anything about himself? If he has the same 'unaligned' alignment and win-con as Diemo did then he would have no info about the rest of the factions.

No, that didn't occur to me, but that is a good point.

JudeMorrigan wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:JudeMorrigan - Some setup speculation based on flavor. Not-very-useful town-to-scum list. Finds bessie townie and ahippo scummy (or at least likely non-town). Then votes Diemo, not for lurking but for one comment about it being possible that someone other than Black is the mafia (which is not an unreasonable comment for a flavor-knowledgeable townie to make, especially if he missed the one mention of the Black Ajah in the opening flavor). Slightly scummy.

Ok, I've got to ask - what the hell? I've explained my logic behind my vote for Diemo twice now, and that is *not* an accurate description of it. His suggesting that the reds might be the mafia was only part of it - the *lesser* part. It was his flat out wrong statement about the leadership of the reds and the blacks that put me over the edge. And if he'd missed the reference to the black ajah in the flavor, it's not as if there hadn't been plenty of very open talk of it in the thread.

I'm sorry if I misinterpreted you, but let me explain my reasoning. Here is the relevant part of Diemo's post:
Diemo wrote:It seems likely to me that the Black Ajah is the mafia, as they are the bad guys in the books. This isn't necessarily the case though, as there is an argument that the Red Ajah are the mafia.

Book spoilers (potentially later than book 4/5, I can't remember)
Spoiler:
The Red Ajah were the ones who disposed of Suain Sanche

Definitely from like book 9 or so
Spoiler:
The leader of the red Ajah turned out to also be the leader of the Black

I counted that as one comment by Diemo, and your entire case against him is based on that one comment. I did not explicitly mention the part about him misrepresenting flavor because I didn't think I needed to - it was already included within what I said about your vote being based on that one comment of his, and I did not realize that it was a major part of your reason for voting him. You said that it was what pushed you over the edge, which could mean either that it was a major part of your reasoning or that, while it had little weight on its own, it was the straw the broke the camel's back. The former would imply that your vote was based primarily on something that was far more likely to be a genuine mistake than a scumslip (why would scum intentionally give misinformation about flavor when that information can easily be shown to be false?), so I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed it was the latter.
Also, up to Diemo's post, all discussion in the thread concerning the black Ajah had just been presenting or agreeing with the theory that black Ajah are mafia. If Diemo didn't notice the mention of black Ajah in the opening flavor, then presenting a theory in which red is mafia (and black is not in the game) was perfectly reasonable at the time.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Jan 28, 2017 6:44 pm UTC

bessie wrote:SirGabriel, I would consider claiming if you have evidence that will lead directly to scum, like you witnessed a Myrddrall plotting with a Red. But if it’s something like you have a night result that all Blues are town, I think it might be better to wait.

I agree. At this point it appears that a mass color reveal will probably help scum more than my result will help town.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:25 pm UTC

I guess now's a good time to get a vote down.

Vote: JudeMorrigan

I would also be okay with a bessie lynch.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:06 pm UTC

Jude's explanation makes sense to me.

Unvote

Vote: bessie

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:56 pm UTC

Okay, I didn't really want to do this, but it looks like ahippo will be lynched if I don't, so I'm going to claim: I am Siuan Sanche, and ahippo is a member of my faction.

There are two factions in the game (that I know of), Elaida+supporters and Siuan+supporters, in addition to the factionless. Assuming the two factions work the same, they can each attempt to recruit one player at night, unless a member of their faction was just lynched, in which case the faction whose member was lynched will not be able to recruit that night. Also, the flavor of my role PM mentioned that someone is spreading rumors about the non-existent Black Ajah, so I think Elaida's faction is the closest thing we have to a mafia. And ahippo, as my supporter, knew at least most of that.

Lynching ahippo would be very helpful to Elaida's faction, especially at this point in the game, so I think it's worth me risking a role-reveal to try to prevent that lynch.

I got the impression that moody was genuinely surprised about Diemo's "unaligned" flip, and he was not in my faction, so he/Madge is currently my best read for being either Elaida herself or one of her supporters.

Unvote
Vote: Madge

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:01 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SirGabriel: what changed since yesterday when ahippo was extremely close to getting lynched? Why didn't you reveal this sooner?

Me revealing and ahippo getting lynched anyway was the worst case scenario. Me not revealing and ahippo not getting lynched would be the best case. By the time I realized ahippo would be lynched if I didn't claim, it was late enough in the day that I didn't think a claim was likely to save him. Now that we have the extension, hopefully there's enough time left for those voting for ahippo to change their minds.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:18 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:if there are two competing cults here and no kills, I'm not even sure what I should be doing at this point.

Yeah, that's how I've been feeling all game. Up until I decided to claim, my answer was basically "try not to get lynched."

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:27 am UTC

matt96 wrote:Looks like SirGabriel's claim is going to be important, although I notice conspicuously absent were claims of what he did last night. It has yet to be claimed whether ahippo was recruited last night or was already a follower day 1. I think this is important as Elaida's faction (should it exist) likely has the same number of members as Siuan's, assuming that the unaligned win con doesn't differentiate between the two, and more if only Elaida's faction is incompatible with the unaligneds but Siuan's is compatible. I don't plan on putting down my vote before getting some more information out of SirGabriel, but that could change depending on how long I need to wait for a response.

ahippo was my only supporter at the start of the game; I recruited another player last night. Siuan's win condition is compatible with the unaligned; I don't know whether Elaida's is.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:08 pm UTC

Well, that didn't go at all how I hoped. No time for a long post, but I am Elaida, and ahippo is telling the truth about being an Elaida supporter. Pretty much everything else I claimed is true. I didn't claim my real role because (a) several people implied claiming to be Elaida would be almost as bad as claiming to be mafia, and (b) I was hoping for a counterclaim from the real Siuan or one of her supporters.
As for my night action, I have the One Power Talent of Foretelling: I can ask the mod (almost) any one question at night and get a truthful answer. Last night I found out that neither Siuan nor I are anti-town but either faction can win with the unaligned. Tonight (assuming I live) I'm asking how many mafia there are, just to confirm that I'm understanding my flavor correctly, since my flavor suggests there are none.
And regarding my claim at the beginning of D2, I know that Siuan is in the game and I know the colors of myself and all my supporters, as well as Diemo's color, and since there were no duplicates, I initially took that to imply that there was exactly one from each color in the game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:25 pm UTC

Okay, apparently the flavor in my role PM was misleading when it said the Black Ajah were nonexistent (which I suppose makes sense if, as Jude said, Elaida initially believed they didn't exist before later realizing her mistake).

For what it's worth, I used my Foretelling power and found out that there were three members in a mafia-like faction (presumably the Black Ajah) at the beginning of the game. Which would appear to make the initial setup 5/3/2/2, with at least two recruiting factions (given that we do have a mafia, it's possible that Siuan is not part of a recruiting faction, and flavor-wise it would make sense that the reigning Amyrlin wouldn't need to be actively recruiting supporters).

Does anyone want to claim killing Jude?

I hope at this point it's clear that I am in fact Elaida and that the Black Ajah are the biggest threat at the moment. Hopefully I'll have time tomorrow to do a reread and see if anyone stands out as a likely teammate of Jude.

Also, one detail I left out of my claim that might be relevant now: I am the faction leader and thus control the recruit, but if I die, one of my supporters will become the faction leader and control the recruit. If the Black Ajah works the same way, they might still have a recruit power even though we killed their leader.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:27 am UTC

Note: parts of this post were rendered irrelevant upon rereading Jude's role reveal, but I left them in so you can see my thought process.

Gopher of Pern wrote:What information do we have that there is a recruiting faction aside from SirGabriels?

We have mpolo's note, plus we have no evidence that there is any kill power in the game other than dimochka's one-shot vig. No one was killed by mafia the first two nights, and no one has yet flipped/claimed doctor/jailer/bulletproof/other-kill-preventing-role, so either we have at least one protective role that has been very effective so far, or the "mafia-like faction" has no kill power (which could explain why jimbob didn't simply call it "mafia" when I asked how many were in the mafia).
Gopher of Pern wrote:Do you lose your recruit if you are NK'd SirGabriel?

If I die, then someone else becomes faction leader and gains the recruit power. I don't know whether I could successfully recruit anyone the night I died, but if I'm correct that the mafia has no nightkill, that's not really relevant.
Gopher of Pern wrote:SirGabriel, I don't think that your theory about there only being one of each Ajah holds water, as there are two revealed whites there, although one of the whites was a black.

Yeah, I realized somewhere in the middle of D2 that I was probably wrong about that, but my that point we had already agreed not to do a massclaim, so I saw no reason to mention it.
Gopher of Pern wrote:If no one else got a letter, that would mean mpolo was not a member of the black ajah in D2. So mpolo is looking pretty townie. (Jude could only send messages to people not of their faction, and their faction had no chat abilities, so the chances of that being a bluff is vanishingly small.)

Ok, just checked, and the information we have about the black ajah recruiting came from the black ajah (mpolos note from Jude). So, that makes me think that the black ajah cannot recruit. They'd be pretty powerful if they had a recruit and a kill.

Apparently I didn't read Jude's role very closely, ignore what I said above about mafia not having a kill. I agree that this means mpolo is probably not mafia.
I guess the only real evidence we have that there are multiple recruiting factions is the phrase "unaligned with any faction" from Diemo's role reveal, which in my mind suggests that there are multiple factions they can become aligned with. Also, my win condition is essentially the same as the unaligned except that it specifies Siuan and her supporters as being a threat to the stability of the White Tower; I'm assuming Siuan similarly seeks to eliminate all threats to the White Tower including Elaida and her supporters. If that is correct, then Siuan's win condition would probably be much harder to achieve than mine if she started with only one or two supporters and could not recruit.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:29 am UTC

Did anyone receive an anonymous message last night?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:44 pm UTC

Here's my attempt to find connections between Jude and somebody else:

bessie - A bit of back and forth with Jude concerning setup spec, both thought GoP and I were a team (for the record, we're not). Nothing really stands out in her posts. But the fact that Jude started the last-minute alternate wagon which ended up saving bessie D1 does not look good for her.

Carlington - Placed Jude in the exact center of his town-to-scum list. Never mentions Jude outside of that analysis post, but on the other hand doesn't have much content at all outside of that post.

dimochka - Found Jude scummy on D2, claims to have killed Jude. Almost certainly not Black Ajah.

Gopher of Pern - Has Jude as neutralish D1, then after the sudden shift in wagon becomes suspicious of Jude. Jude is near the scummy end of his D2 town-to-scum list (with only bessie and ahippo as scummier). Probably not Black Ajah.

Madge - Jude is one of many players who she never mentions by name.
moody - Mentions Jude's random vote, then has Jude as the second towniest on his town-to-scum list. Was the second vote (after Jude) on Diemo's wagon D1. A Jude/bessie/Madge scum team would make a lot of sense given his behavior.

matt96 - No real content about Jude or anyone else. Tied the votals D1 after Jude started the alternate wagon. But he's a confirmed double-voter, and that's way too strong a power to give to one member of a three-man mafia team in a game this size.

mpolo - Mentions Jude a few times, doesn't seem to have any strong opinions about him (or about anyone else for that matter).

Sabrar - Has a lot of comments on, and questions for, everyone including Jude. Votes for Jude D2, later unvotes. I'm reading him as townie.



Based on people's behavior, I think the most likely scum team is Jude, bessie, and moody/Madge. And the fact that those are the same three scum reads I had in my D2 analysis post makes me even more confident in that conclusion.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:40 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I do not think Madge would be godfather,
True if this the only cop-power in game then GF does not make sense but there are a few players who haven't claimed their ability yet so it's still possible. As for GF showing part of a faction maybe Black Ajah can be 'recruited'? I mean it would be too easy if they could be identified by being unrecruitable. Though I admit it's a bit of a stretch.

Madge wrote:BTW - does anyone know what happens if scum gets recruited into one of our factions?

My role PM says that not all players can be recruited to my faction and that a successful recruit does not necessarily mean the recruited player's win condition changed. So my guess is either cult can recruit anyone (Black Ajah or otherwise) who does not already belong to the other cult, but any Black Ajah who is recruited would keep their Black Ajah win condition and factional kill.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:25 pm UTC

I don't think I've posted in a couple days, so I just wanted to let everyone know I've still been following the thread. I've been busy organizing a big event, which took place last night; now that that's over, I should have time later today to do a decent post.

While I'm here, any suggestions for what I should ask jimbob tonight?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:04 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:While I'm here, any suggestions for what I should ask jimbob tonight?
SirGabriel wrote:I can ask the mod (almost) any one question at night and get a truthful answer.
What are the limits? Can you replicate being a Cop (e.g. Is X scum?)? Or can you ask if specific roles are in the game (e.g. Inventor/False Inventor)?

I can ask about setup or game mechanics, but not about specific individuals. So I can ask if False Inventor is in the game, but I can't ask if X is scum.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:04 pm UTC

After rereading the events of the day, my move is obvious: either Madge is lying, in which case she is Black Ajah and I can't win as long as she's alive, or she's telling the truth, in which case she is a Siuan supporter and I can't win as long as she's alive.

Vote: Madge

Also, for those of you who are unaligned, your win condition specifically states that you can only win if there's a strong leader in place. Mine (and presumbably Siuan's faction as well) just says that I win if all threats to town, including the opposing faction, are eliminated. Which means that you might not be able to win as unaligned if Siuan and Elaida both die, so it might be in your best interest to lynch her to keep Madge from killing me, even if you're not sure she's Black Ajah. Otherwise you'll just have to have to hope that Siuan either recruits you or lives to the end of the game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SirGabriel: at this point I think your best chance at survival is to ask Madge what she wants to know in exchange for not getting killed by her.

It couldn't hurt to ask. Madge, is there any information I can give you tomorrow that will keep you from killing me tonight?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:32 am UTC

Carlington wrote:As for the interfactional town war, I think that should take second priority, as none of us can get a win if the Black Ajah do.

If you can convince Madge of that, I would be happy to go back to hunting scum. But my faction's chances if I die tonight aren't looking good, and if I lose, it makes no difference to me whether the winner is Siuan's faction or the Black Ajah.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:28 am UTC

Carlington wrote:FMPOV bessie is confirmed town.

Why?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:11 pm UTC

Unfortunately I don't have time to go into detail, and this will probably be my last post for the day, but several places in Sabrar's recent content have been pinging me. So, since I think I can trust Madge not to kill me tonight,

Unvote

Vote: Sabrar

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:35 pm UTC

Night result: There were two Black Ajah voting for Diemo at the end of Day 1. Since there was exactly one among [Jude, moody/Madge], that means there is exactly one Black Ajah among [matt, Sabrar].

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:57 pm UTC

Here are our options:
1. Lynch matt - Best case, we lynch a very powerful scum and get a confirmed townie. Worst case, we know who to lynch tomorrow, which puts us at 3 "town" and 1 scum alive at start of D6 if scum is successful in both nightkills.
2. Lynch Sabrar - Best case, we lynch scum and get a confirmed townie. Worst case, we mislynch, scum succeeds in their nightkill, then tomorrow scum has enough votes to force a no lynch and guarantee their eventual victory.
3. Lynch someone else - Best case, we lynch scum but get no confirmed townies. Worst case, same as worst case for lynching Sabrar. If for some reason we choose this option and it turns out to be a mislynch and scum succeeds in their nightkill, we should kill Sabrar tomorrow: if Sabrar is scum, then that's our best option, and if matt is scum, by that point we've already lost no matter what we do.
4. No lynch - Best case, we get information tonight which tells us which of matt/Sabrar is scum. Worst case, we're down to 5 "town" and 2 scum alive tomorrow with no additional information gained overnight, which at first glance isn't much worse than where we already are.

I still think Sabrar is much more likely than matt to be scum, but we should at least consider options 1 and 4, since lynching town!Sabrar could lose us the game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:2. Lynch Sabrar - Best case, we lynch scum and get a confirmed townie. Worst case, we mislynch, scum succeeds in their nightkill, then tomorrow scum has enough votes to force a no lynch and guarantee their eventual victory.
Not that I'm advocating this option but your math is wrong. Mislynching me and a succesful NK leaves Town at a 4-2 position, even with matt's double vote you can still lynch him next (unless the lurkers forget to vote).

Right, for some reason I saw "8 alive" and interpreted it as "8 remaining votes". Well, that makes it easy: there's no reason to No Lynch, and it seems like a terrible idea at the moment to lynch anyone other than Sabrar and matt, so we just lynch whichever of Sabrar and matt we think is more likely to be scum.

Sabrar wrote:@SirGabriel: would you mind explaining your vote from yesterday?

I thought there was more to it than this, but looking back the only thing that stands out is your defensiveness against GoP. Scum tend to be more likely than town to defend against every little accusation against them. If I was in your shoes as town, I probably would have considered GoP's post as not worthy of a response.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Feb 09, 2017 5:21 pm UTC

matt96 wrote:I'm not entirely convinced that SirGabriel is telling the truth for the simple reason that if Sabrar and I are both town, getting the two of us mislynched would result in a scum win, unless something else prevents a night kill, assuming the 3 scum suggested by SirGabriel and speculated by confirmed scum JudeMorgan. If anyone has any additional information, now would probably be a good time to reveal it.

If I'm scum, then explain this post (from a confirmed Elaida supporter, after I claimed to be Elaida):
ahippo wrote:Unvote
Vote: Madge

AACH! I was hoping you'd let me take the fall or at least sew enough confusion to give us the possibility to have a last minute vote change or something. After mpolo unvoted me I thought we had a chance to change the narrative. We don't have a night chat, so we have no way of discussing this beforehand. I mean, it seemed pretty obvious I was gonna get lynched anyway today. When it came up I was part of Elaida's faction, you would have been super implicated. Especially if I went along with your story about you being Siuan, and I doubt that story would have saved me. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm a pretty bad mafia player.

I'm about to be hammered, so no reason not to come clean. So SirGabriel, real quick, you didn't mean what you said about there being no Black Ajah, right? Like, I'm still 99% sure they're here, and recruiters too. If anyone reading this is still unaligned, you can decide which of us to chose tomorrow. For today, if we don't lynch Black Ajah, we're in big trouble.

I never got a chance to use my power, assuming I'm about to get lynched, so unfortunately I don't have any information I haven't shared. With my last breath I spit in the Dark One's eye. Good luck friends. Don't let the White Tower fall.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:14 pm UTC

I'm also going away for the weekend. I have nothing to add to the discussion right now, but I will say that I currently have no idea who I'm going to vote for (except that it will be either matt or Sabrar).

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:15 pm UTC

Any suggestions for my question for tonight?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:29 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:You can replicate being a Cop:

How many Black Ajah members were voting for bessie at the end of D1? -> Cop on Gopher of Pern
How many Black Ajah members were voting for ahippo at the end of D1? -> Cop on Carlington
How many Black Ajah members were voting for SirGabriel at the end of D2? -> Cop on bessie (after tomorrow morning's reveal)

I will ask jimbob if these are valid questions, but I would be surprised if he allowed any of them. When I asked about Diemo's wagon, he said he would allow that question but that he would judge similar questions on a case-by-case basis in the future.

Also, it looks like a lot of content has been posted while I was away; can someone give a brief summary of what happened and unofficial votals?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:46 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
Sabrar wrote:You can replicate being a Cop:

How many Black Ajah members were voting for bessie at the end of D1? -> Cop on Gopher of Pern
How many Black Ajah members were voting for ahippo at the end of D1? -> Cop on Carlington
How many Black Ajah members were voting for SirGabriel at the end of D2? -> Cop on bessie (after tomorrow morning's reveal)

I will ask jimbob if these are valid questions, but I would be surprised if he allowed any of them. When I asked about Diemo's wagon, he said he would allow that question but that he would judge similar questions on a case-by-case basis in the future.

I just got a response from jimbob, and none of those are valid questions.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:31 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I got the flavored version of my power PM. It seems that I am still just Accepted, but I figured out how to use Madge's power, with the improvement that I can successfully target someone who had previously been targeted by Madge.

So, now we have five factions, according to Sabrar: unaligned; unaligned but kill off Siuan and Elaida; Siuan's followers; Elaida's followers; the Black Ajah. I don't have time to do numbers on this, but does this mean that everyone has been recruited?

No. Even if Sabrar is telling the truth and every recruit was successful, we should have one more left who can be recruited but hasn't been recruited yet (either Black or unaligned). And it's certainly possible that a recruit has failed (it could have been blocked, or one faction could have tried to recruit someone who was already in the other faction).

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:09 pm UTC

Looking back over Sabrar's posts, his actions seem consistent with his claimed win condition. And the one thing that looked scummy to me (his defensiveness against GoP) could be explained by his being a Survivor and thus really not wanting to be mislynched. Also, this comment from early in D1:
Sabrar wrote:This might mean that the setup is something completely different from the usual, for example multiple competing factions trying to get the Amyrlin Seat.

That doesn't seem like an obvious conclusion to reach using only publicly available information, but if, as he claimed, he already knew that Siuan and Elaida were in the game and were competing to be the strong leader, it is an obvious conclusion, without it being too obvious that he had that additional information.

On the other hand, a double vote seems too powerful to be given to scum.

mpolo wrote:Matt clinched the Madge lynch and has been overly quiet. I still think that a double vote is unusual as a scum power, but the other theory would be that he was Siuan, who would not likely attack her own chance at winning without making some kind of revelation (forcing lynch of a supporter).

That's what I thought at first too, but you missed one important detail: Sabrar, Madge, and matt were the only ones with votes on them at the time, and conceivably could hav all been in Siuan's faction at the time. matt could be Siuan, but only if Sabrar is a Siuan supporter.

Tough decision, but I think I will

Vote: Sabrar

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:14 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:2. As already mentioned I would have needed to provide accurate info and I couldn't have had any idea that Madge was in Siuan's faction.

Unless you knew Madge was in Siuan's faction because you were recruited into Siuan's faction N2, and Madge for some reason chose not to call attention to that fact.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:28 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I was never recruited in any faction.

If anyone in Siuan's faction feels like confirming or denying this, feel free.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:56 am UTC

Definitely an interesting setup, but from my perspective there was way too much misinformation. Flavor says there was no Black Ajah, plus scum initially had no kill power, and it was already clearly an unusual setup, so I genuinely thought that there was no mafia and that ahippo's death would leave Siuan free to recruit matt and practically guarantee a Siuan victory.

Also, bessie, sorry for not recruiting you, but if I had recruited you and GoP managed to get you mislynched, it would have cost me the game.


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