Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

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bessie
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 19, 2017 8:34 pm UTC

Somewhat random thoughts.

This has been the worst game for someone of my limited scum hunting ability. I’m not a good scum hunter. All my reads are for “technical” reasons. I don’t do behavior reads or have gut instincts. Or if I try I usually get it wrong (examples from Secret Santa: correct scum read on kalira for errors in content, incorrect scum read on emlightened for gut feeling of buddying kalira). There has been very little sharing of information this game, and we don’t have a lot to share anyway, with both tracker/watcher powers dead.

Accordingly, with no results to analyze I need to keep returning to the flavor: filps, ter’angreal, etc. The writing style of the roles reveals changed on D3, and I’m not sure if it was deliberate or coincidence or if I’m focusing on something irrelevant, but as I already stated I don’t have a lot to analyze so I need to work with what I’ve been given. I’ve already pointed this out here. Source of game powers for Diemo, ahippo, and JudeMorrigan was not given in their roles. The flavor implied that the source Jude’s power was ter’angreal. Source of game powers for Madge, Sabrar, SirGabriel was given as the One Power. I wasn’t thinking about this as much until Madge’s role reveal, which clearly differentiates between One Power and other abilities. This leads me to believe that the source of the ter’angreal is important, and will tell us if they are true or false.

Ter’angreal recipients
N1: Sabrar, one-shot faction cop
N2: Madge, one-shot kill
N3: dimochka, one-shot any-kill protection
N4: mpolo, unknown

From publicly available information, I see no proof the ter’angreal are true. Only a known Black Ajah claimed to use one successfully, and there is no proof dimochka’s was true. Hmm, this list makes me wonder if Sabrar was false recruited. It would make many things, but not all, fall into place.


What else am I thinking about? JudeMorrigan, killed N2. Kills usually resolve last so someone should have received a note. Why didn’t anyone receive a note N2? Maybe Jude’s target was protected by moody/Madge. Or someone did receive a note and for some reason didn’t want to reveal it (did the contents not help the receiver’s faction?).


Moving on, this post from D1 still bothers me.
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:This looks like he is unsure about who his enemies are, which indicates Town. Eagerly awaiting more content.
It looks to me like you are trying really hard to find a reason to stick the town label on Carlington.

...

Carlington – First post, has RL issues flavor/setup spec. Second post, 3 sentences explaining that he’s been too busy to read the thread. So, zero real content, but oddly enough content for Sabrar to label him town.


Next thing I’m thinking about is this D2 post by me. This is a D2 reads list, where I note that JudeMorrigan and Sabrar are reading SirGabriel and Gopher of Pern as a team (belief shared by bessie due to GoP and SirGabriel tunneling on bessie). Just bookmarking this for now.


N3 there was no kill. Why?
Scum withheld. Unlikely.
Scum was roleblocked. Unlikely, roleblocker was scum and no unaccounted for ter’angreal.
Madge/moody protected target on N1 or N2. Possible if target was Siuan.
Doctor protected target. Possible.
Target is bulletproof. Possible.
Delayed kill (poison, etc.). Possible if target was SirGabriel.

Now that I’m writing out this list, I wonder if scum did have a reason to withhold the kill N3. I can probably come up with a couple if I think about it hard enough.


And because I don’t want to blindly stick the town label on dimochka, I tried to look for some evidence of his alignment. All I could come up with is maybe this is a reason for Black!dimochka to kill JudeMorrigan

His faction controls a night kill, but only after one of the faction members was killed.


but that seems like a dumb reason so OK dimochka is not Black Ajah.

Well, I've got more but I don't want to be selfish and monopolize the thread. Anyone else interested in posting?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:02 am UTC

Sure. I’ll call. You may claim your result on me.

And yes, there is something in particular that I want to know about your result on mpolo. And I think you will avoid replying to my request by using the excuse you don’t want to post it without mpolo’s permission.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:34 am UTC

So what’s my wincon?

So I did a quick skim of the D2 timeline, between SirGabriels’s claim to be Siuan Sanche and the end of the day. Here’s who posted.
Spoiler:
1/31/17 5:56 am PST SirGabriel claims to be Siuan Sanche.
Sabrar
SirG
JudeMorragan doesn’t believe him, votes SirG
mpolo
Jude
mpolo
SirG
Sabrar votes Jude
Gopher of Pern does not fully believe the claim
Jude
GoP would lynch SirG or ahippo
Jude votes ahippo
matt
SirG
Madge (still catching up)
Madge
bessie votes SirG for reason unrelated to claim
Madge (still confused)
bessie
Sabrar unvotes
mpolo votes ahippo

2/1/17 1:56 am PST ahippo claims SirG is lying, claims Elaida supporter, votes SirG
Sabrar
Sabrar
ahippo
GoP would vote SirG or ahippo
Sabrar
Sabrar
Madge votes SirG
Madge
Sabrar votes ahippo

[Somewhere between 1:56 and 4:08 (my time) is where Carlington claims to have submitted his night action]

Quick things: I can confirm SirG's claim, due to being a rolecop and targeting her last night (I submitted my target after ahippo denied SirG's claim, but before SirG changed her claim - not that you have any reason to believe that, barring my inactivity).


2/1/17 4:08 am PST SirG changes his claim to Elaida
Sabrar
Sabrar
ahippo
Madge
Sabrar votes SirG
Sabrar
ahippo
ahippo
Sabrar
dimochka

2/1/17 11:58 am PST jimbobmacdoodle calls deadline

So why didn't you post in the thread if you were on line and following the game?

Ninja’d by Carlington.

Celestine Principia, were you unaligned on N4?

Carlington wrote:Now, because of when I carried out these investigations, the results I have wrt. alignment are two "unaligned Aes Sedai of $ajah" one "leader of the supporters of $faction" and one "supporter of $leader".

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:55 am UTC

dimochka wrote:Quick post before I get back into reading mode - I guess Matt has to be Celestia because I'm Wilhelmina Fantim.

Nice. Oh wait, I guess Gopher of Pern can be Celestine.
Carlington wrote:The rest of the players I have investigated, I don't believe they were confirmed town at that point in time.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 20, 2017 4:47 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm not Celestine.
I didn’t think you were. But your response just made things a lot more interesting.

Gopher of Pern wrote:This is what you get for following the false one!
So Gopher of Pern, who is the “you” in that comment? Is it a general you, or are you addressing someone in particular? Or are you being sarcastic and referring to yourself?

Carlington, did you investigate matt last night? If yes, please explain why you lied here:
Carlington wrote:The rest of the players I have investigated, I don't believe they were confirmed town at that point in time.
Oh, and what’s my wincon?

matt, are you going to lurk or post?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 20, 2017 4:03 pm UTC

Well to be honest I don’t think I want any of you to win. My reasons for not siding with any of the teams:

Team Elaida
SirGabriel- Tunneled on me D1 and D2. And on D3 until he needed to try another tactic to save ahippo. So he was tunneling on me, whatever, but he kept refusing to answer my questions as to why exactly he thought I was scummy which was annoying because you can’t defend yourself if you don’t know why you’re being attacked.
ahippo- Lurked all through D1 by reading old games instead of posting in the current one, then voted for me for a dumb reason. Wasted a great deal of my time on D2 trying to explain to him why a doctor/roleblocker shouldn’t claim, and distracted from scum hunting.
mpolo- I don’t have any problem with him right now.

Team Siuan
Gopher of Pern- Another player that kept tunneling on me throughout the entire game. At least on D1 and D2 he gave a reason, he didn’t like my setup spec because I had a recruiter in it. D3 tries to pair me in to a scum team. D4 doesn’t like my updated setup spec because I have false recruiters, and has some theory as to why I am the most likely scum but he never presents it.
moody7277- I have no problem with moody in this game, I still am interested in finding out where he thinks I may have used outside information unreasonably.
Madge- Sorry about letting you be lynched. I knew you or Sabrar was scum.

Team Black Ajah
JudeMorrigan- Accidentally saved me from the lynch D1. I’ve been trying to get killed ever since.
Sabrar- It’s complicated. :)
Carlington- Has been supporting my towniness throughout the entire game until D5, where he starts setting up a reason to turn on me. I suspect he oversold his role to appear more townie, because almost all the information he claims to have received is public knowledge. My biggest problem with Carlington is that I keep asking him questions and I feel like he is insulting my intelligence with his answers. Not that I’ve shown a great deal of intelligence in this game.

Unfortunately, I can’t win with Black, so it has to be one of the others. Now I kinda wish dimochka was a militant atheist.

dimochka, matt, are you still unaligned? If you are, I think we need to eliminate one of the factions so that we don’t get recruited into rival factions, and lynch Carlington tomorrow. If you are aligned, which faction are you in? Please answer within the next hour. I have to go to work.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 20, 2017 4:42 pm UTC

Can we have the official votals?

dimochka, it doesn’t matter to me which team wins if I am unaligned. My concern is that I will be recruited tonight, and the two teams will still need to fight it out. If we leave Carlington alive, we will have a clear lynch target tomorrow. But leaving Carlington alive is a risk because we can't be certain of his real powers.

dimochka, mpolo, are you sure your team can still win without Elaida alive? If Elaida and Siuan are dead, then does Black win because there is no strong leader?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 20, 2017 5:17 pm UTC

Well shit, I just don’t have time to ponder and reevaluate the wincons and decide for myself if an Elaida supporter can be considered a Strong Leader, thus preventing a Black Ajah win. And I don’t really trust any of you right now, I hope you see my point of view as to why.

I’m probably going to be in a meeting until at least 11:00 am PST. matt, do you have anything to add? Hurry up, I should have left already.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D5)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 20, 2017 6:06 pm UTC

Vote Carlington

It's too much of a risk keeping him alive.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

Postby bessie » Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:43 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle, this was one of the most fun or one of the most miserable games I have ever played. Or possibly both. Not receiving that second role pm before I made my initial post kinda screwed me up. But at least there was the exhilaration at the end of D1 when I could say whatever the hell I wanted because I was getting lynched anyway.

JudeMorrigan, I hope you don’t get discouraged and you decide to play again. I think you played very well. Your read of ahippo was really quite remarkable. And you were townie enough that both moody and I protected you N1. I’m not sure how dimochka picked you out as scum so quickly (SDK does the same thing) because I sure don’t have that magic. I just keep playing and hoping some of it will eventually rub off on me.

SirGabriel that was incredibly clever play by you on D2. I wouldn’t have ever been able to pull that off. I hope we’re on the same team next time because I think I will never be able to read you. Incredible job by you and your team.

Carlington, tsk tsk, there shall be future trust issues between you and me.

jimbob, I still don’t understand the two types of abilities mentioned in Madge’s role PM. Were the ter’angreals One Power abilities or not? I'll probably have more questions after I have a chance to reread everything. Remember, I'm that annoying whywhywhy kid.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (Pre-game)

Postby Carlington » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:34 am UTC

Confirm
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

Please use he/him/his pronouns when referring to me.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby Carlington » Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:55 am UTC

((Work's gone weird this week, someone has had to take compassionate leave suddenly so we're scrambling a little to fill the gap - as such I'm tired and pressed for time, and will be for the first couple of RL days. Awesome timing, but I'm not the one who's taken leave so I'm counting myself lucky.))

Cult isn't frowned upon per se. There are players who strongly dislike, to the point that they'd rather know about it ahead of time so they can avoid signing up. Certainly it's considered bastard, but if it's known bastard then that's another thing entirely.

I seem to recall the last game in this series having a whole lot of chaos going on (perhaps not Hangafia levels, but still chaotic). I see no reason to expect otherwise for this game. The flavour suggests that we're all Aes Sedai. I thought for a moment that perhaps factions would be split out into the different Ajahs, but it makes more sense for it to be Black Ajah vs. The Rest, I guess. Given the nature of Black Ajah, it's possible that we have traitor roles floating around, as well.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

Please use he/him/his pronouns when referring to me.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby Carlington » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:15 pm UTC

I went straight from a busy week a work into a 48-hour game jam. This post is my response to prod, but it's 1am so I'm going to sleep. Morning I'll put a post, I haven't read the thread yet.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

Please use he/him/his pronouns when referring to me.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby Carlington » Mon Jan 23, 2017 12:08 pm UTC

I don't believe bessie is scum. Pretty much every game I can remember right now has had some sort of showdown D1, and it seems to usually be town vs. town. Even in this forum version of the game, where we get as long as needed to compose and read posts, communication is imperfect and people talk past each other.

Sabrar hasn't been himself from what I've seen, dimochka has been mostly quiet after defending the MA joke. (I can't find it it anywhere... What is that role?)

I am still struggling for time, but ahippo's entire thing just now with a wall of random statistics and then voting a town read is super pingy, bad enough for me to

Vote:ahippo
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

Please use he/him/his pronouns when referring to me.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:14 pm UTC

Okay. Life in general has calmed down a lot, and today was a public holiday which gave me a minute to rally and get on top of things. I'm trying not to let this become a habit, posting analysis starting D2, but here I go:

spoil'd for wall'o'text, note-taking D1:
Spoiler:
Sabrar - flavourblind. asks whether ahippo and JudeMorrigan are experience players, any preferences regarding game style. RV dimochka for atheist claim. Has theories about bessie's accusation. Analysis of bessie, thinks she's likely scum. Votes accordingly. Asks what mpolo would rather discuss statt bessie-dimocka. Scumhunts by vote analysis. Votes impatiently. Unwilling to set rules for claiming other than it should help town more than scum. Asks more decent questions. Sketch on dimochka's thoughts around Jude's list - thinks Jude and moody have similar lists, but dimochka only called out one of them. More analysis, puts me towny, diemo scummy, matt scum/indie. D2 a few quick thoughts regarding mpolo, dimochka, ahippo. Sabrar isn't super keen on GoP's bessie focus.

JudeMorrigan - RV dimochka for atheist claim, unvote because Sabrar already did. Answers Sabrar: considers self fairly newbie-ish. No preferences re: game style. Confused by bessie's setup spec. Notices difference in rules between WoT 1-2. Pulls ahippo on "six out of seven ajahs". Defends bessie, as she could be town trying to get a reaction. Setup spec would jave been "something like 7-3-1-1 w/SK+Surv" based on past experience here, now the possibility of recruiter cannot be ignored. Town-scum list which seems to have at least a little thought put into it. Defends town-scum list and setup spec. Reasonably full analysis of a few players, votes Diemo. D2 first post providing reasoning for diemo vote after the fact. fine with ajah claim.

ahippo - Extensive answer to Sabrar, has played a few games, considers self not very good. Has played some ONUW outside fora. Should be active, claims solid flavour knowledge. Setup spec: more than one non-town faction. Probably a mechanic for replacing the Amyrlin. Expecting power-heavy setup. Explains this Amyrlin spec as combo of PM and flavour knowledge. Expects Black Ajah main antag. Could be many factions, based on flavour. Thinks PM faction likely pro-town. Not sure if Eliada constitutes a strong leader. "six out of seven Ajahs", explained as genuine mistake. ahippo asks questions to get a feel for players. Did a huge meta-analysis of every game since he left. Came back with a bunch of stats that lead to the conclusion that he should lynch a town read D1 (?!?) D2 fine with ajah claim. Defends stat. analysis of other games. Suspects a recruiting mafia instead of killing.

SirG - RV Sabrar. Claims receiving PM regarding a certain faction. Guesses this is a third faction, who is either pro- or anti-town, not true neutral. Doesn't seem to like bessie's case on dimochka, thinks the MA claim was a joke but is willing to entertain based on prior experience of nailing scum from single jokes. Growing suspicion on bessie. Agrees with moody's conclusions, thinks scum!bessie most likely. Claims not to have a good scumhunting strategy. Never fully confident in a vote. Unwilling to pin down a hard rule about claiming. Very quick T-S list, based on re-read, no analysis given. Votes bessie on this basis. D2 asks for a mass claim of ajahs - has information that might be useful. (I feel like I can guess this). SirG cautious about mpolo's note's veracity. Provides a little more reasoning surrounding his actions re:bessie.

GoP - Flavourblind. RV mpolo. Agrees that mafia = Black Ajah. Doubts cult. Asks bessie about cult, thinks she dodges answering. Votes bessie for being too defensive. Scumhunts with pressuring and vote analysis. Claims whenever it'll help his team win, but is wary. Town-scum list relying heavily on meta for some players, not heavy on explanation. D2 first post is pretty good, for a quick round-up. Will claim ajah if necessary. Still pushing the same bessie points, as well as matt's softclaim and mpolo's lack of vote.

bessie - Suprised she can post on the first page. Setup spec - 2 power mafia, 1 indie, 1 pro-faction indie, 1 recruiter, 1 power town (1-2 recruitable). FoS dimochka for claiming MA during conf. phase, and because she'd rather be rid of an MA if such exists. Prods SirG for content. Doubles down on FoS dimochka. votes dimochka, unwilling to ignore anything in case it's relevant, despite differences in what's seen as relevant between players. Feels flavour discussion is more normal due to intensity of flavour. Responds to many players, prods many others for content. Continues pushing on "when is it okay to ignore content?". Posts again responding to conversation about dimochka. Faction thoughts - Suian Sanche faction probably town. Elaida faction probably not mafia, possibly indies leaning town or scum, or even true indies. Black Ajah definitely mafia. Claims to be a poor scumhunter. Looks instead for technical things. Used to wait, is getting more impatient. Thinks town tends to overclaim. Claim only when it helps town more than scum. Thinks she's the only one focussed on dimochka. Thinks some understand her position better than they admit. Calls Jude's setup spec safe but meaningless. Good analysis post ending with a vote on SirG. Posts defending herself from the lynch. Nothing to claim, anti-ajah claim. Picks up a lot of little things here and there.

mpolo - thinks bessie's FoS was a joke. From flavour, we are running parallel to the books. Thinks it's important to town that a strong leader be on the Amyrlin seat. Suspects Siuan Sanche and Eliada to be possiblities for strong leaders. Wants to read bessie-dimochka as town-town. Scumhunts by post analysis, occasionally flavour arguments. Prefers to vote later when he's more sure. Claiming should be if it will save a good role, or benefit town strongly. provides four examples of names characters he expects to see. Received note N1 that Black Ajah are using Myrddralls, who can turn players.

dimochka - claimed MA in confirmation, claims it was a joke because game content is never posted in confirmation phase. Looking at people's reactions to joke. Votes bessie, thinks she's scum nitpicking to build a case out of air. Wants to drop the MA thread. Didn't consider meta vs. bessie. Still doesn't like bessie's reaction to his joke. Find's Jude's list unhelpful. Reads on moody and SirG, both townish.

moody - agrees re: Black Ajah. Also thinks there may be secondary wincons based on Ajah, or there may not even be a cohesive town faction. setup spec: 2 black ajah, green, blue, red ajah, non-ajah characters poss. Poss. SK. Compiles MA reactions, draws three conclusions. Agrees that anything in thread is open slather, but thinks consideration ought be given to what's obvious fluff. Curious as to why bessie waited for dimochka to vote her before voting him. Rough town-scum list with summary of posts but not opinions on the elements that build the read on each player. points out oddity of matt's doublevote being used to flip the vote late in the day. okay with ajah-claim

matt96 - Agrees re black ajah. Thinks Red Ajah may also be a threat. Sets up a hierarchy of strong amyrlin candidate ajahs. Only good scumhunting method is process of elimination. Holds out for confirmation or necessity. Thinks claiming is inevitable, some day will be the last day and then it's better to air all the info. Toys with mass Ajah claim. Thinks the mystery third faction is town with secondary wincon. Thinks bessie's rolespec is intentionally provocative. Still doesn't find it scummy, despite not liking it.

Diemo - RL occupied. Doesn't like the focus on dimochka(?). A little bit of spec. re: black vs. red ajah as scum, thinks black more likely. Flipped Brown Ajah "unaligned with any faction"


now, one point of order:
moody7277 wrote:
...
Carlington-...anti-cult attitude...
...
No, I actually kinda enjoy cult/recruiting role games, as long as it's not ridiculous. I find a certain sort of fun in having to work with a shifting wincon and a shifting view of the game.

I don't want to claim anything just now, but that might change by the end of today. I have no issue claiming my colour, and I have ideas about how it might prove useful.

Some analysis, forged from the lengthy notes above and tempered with a weave of Air and Spirit:

Sabrar - Good analysis on most of the players, and quite active, as is typical. Early on seemed rather negative on bessie, but that was tempered with time. His current focus would appear to be GoP, and in particular GoP's focus on bessie. He doesn't seem to be making much of SirGabriel's focus on her, though. Still, on balance, seems towny, if a bit less so than I normally read him.

JudeMorrigan - Picks up on a possible flavour-based slip from ahippo. Defended bessie early on, and gave a reasonable looking setup spec, although failed to take recruiting powers into account. His T-S list seemed to have at least a little thought behind it, although he did focus a lot on re-explaining his vote after Diemo flipped town - pre-emptive self-defense? Not enough evidence either side to swing it.

ahippo - Most of his early content was largely flavour based. Admitted to difficulty reading players, and spent an (imo) inordinate amount of time on some statistical analysis that was interesting but ultimately fruitless. Seems to suspect a recruiting mafia instead of a killing one (possible gambit, withholding kill N1 to draw suspicion away from a kill towards a recruit...unlikely, but possible). I still don't at all like his voting for a town read ploy. At this juncture, my most likely vote candidate.

SirGabriel - Some good content, although it's often quality at the expense of quantity. Has soft-claimed some kind of N1 result, but not giving more info about it. All in all, I think he's soft town.

GoP - Has been quite singular in his focus on bessie, in my opinion. I felt as though his T-S list leant heavily on meta for some players instead of analysis. I'd like to see more analysis of other players, I think he's tunneling on bessie. Whether that's malicious or innocent, I'm not so sure. Neutral/soft scum

bessie - A lot of content, and a large focus of D1. The vote flip away from her was remarkable. She was quite heavily focused on dimochka's joke on D1, which I feel was tunneling. Still, provided good analysis on other players too, and has made a lot of good spots through the game. As an aside, I think I like the less patient and more assertive playstyle she's adopted of late. Town.

mpolo - Seems to have a lot of ideas, based possibly in flavour. Not heavy on analysis, leaning more towards spec and flavour analysis. I don't think he's scum, but he might be some sort of indie. His claimed note is interesting, too. Indie.

dimochka - Very thin on content, hard to get a read. I believe him about the MA claim being a joke, otherwise he wouldn't have been willing to drop it. I do see bessie's point that it's odd to do something like that and immediately claim it was meaningless. Neutral/scum.

moody - Some interesting ideas around setup and the town faction. Asked a couple of astute questions around the bessie-dimochka tete-a-tete. T-S list seemed a little hasty, and I'd like if he expounded on his reasoning a bit. He, like, me, picked up on matt's doublevote and the wagon switch late D1.

matt - Lacking in analysis of other players, and has some interesting ideas about what consitutes a strong leader on the Amyrlin seat. Happy to answer questions, less so to generate his own content. Leaning scummy/active-lurky

Town-scum list at this point:
Town
bessie
Sabrar
SirGabriel
moody
JudeMorrigan
dimochka
GoP
matt96
ahippo

Special indie mention: mpolo
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:27 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Just as a quick note: FoS on anyone who doesn't understand why revealing Ajah colors might be detrimental.

It occurs to me that I'm probably in this number from your POV. I want to clarify - I'm pretty sure I understand your reasoning here, but I don't think it should be taken for granted that that reasoning holds up.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:23 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Carlington: you summarized moody's content but didn't provide a read on him. Why?

Genuine accident, that. FWIW, moody sits just a hair to the town side of neutral. Also, I didn't understand your phrasing in your last response to me. What did you mean by "the reasoning is on the point"?
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:57 am UTC

On that note regarding Ajahs and powers, I still think Sabrar's FoS on everyone who disagrees is too much. I understand the link just fine, I just don't think anyone has enough data points yet to be that certain.

Food now, more post in a bit.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:41 am UTC

It is moot now, so I suppose there's enough said and I'll drop it with an apology. To me, though, my disagreement seemed to be rejected outright, which suggested that disagreement would be regarded as a lack of understanding and summarily a mark in the scum column.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sun Jan 29, 2017 12:26 am UTC

I find myself still agreeing with my thoughts from yesterday. I'm going to
Vote: ahippo
accordingly.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 03, 2017 12:05 am UTC

This is me, apologising profusely, responding to the prod to confirm that I still exist, and catching up on the thread. From the glance I've given it I'm going to have a fun time figuring things out, but post incoming regardless.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 03, 2017 12:44 am UTC

Okay, so. That whole SirG/ahippo deal panned out way less confusingly being able to look at it in retrospect and due to the following:
Quick things: I can confirm SirG's claim, due to being a rolecop and targeting her last night (I submitted my target after ahippo denied SirG's claim, but before SirG changed her claim - not that you have any reason to believe that, barring my inactivity).
I feel safe in claiming this, based on other information I gained earlier. Based on that information, lovers of logic puzzles will surely have figured out what my intention is in claiming this, and act accordingly (please?)

I feel similarly odd about Madge claiming to receive a kill the same day scum received a kill. It could be a convenient way to sidestep a potential watcher or tracker result, I suppose.

Bus is pulling in now, I'm hitting submit.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:50 am UTC

Which last part was that? The part directed to Madge, or to a mystery recipient? If the former, I'm almost offended you think I'd be that unsubtle as scum. I certainly wouldn't think the same of you, having seen your scum play. :P
If the latter, then that's because I was trying to communicate instructions, but it certainly wasn't to scum - or if it was, I didn't know it and we're all royally screwed.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:53 am UTC

EBWOP: as regards rolecop being scummy - ordinarily I'd agree, but in this instance I can see the utility for town. What with the two competing factions, I think it would be very useful to be able to weed out members of other factions that could pose a threat to your leadership. Of course, this is all post-hoc seeing as I already have the role and am trying to mind read the mod. The bits I know are the bits I got from my role PM - rolecop, and initially unaligned.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:20 am UTC

Ah, I see the confusion now. I guess my wording was unclear:
Carlington wrote:I feel safe in claiming this, based on other information I gained earlier. Based on that information, lovers of logic puzzles will surely have figured out what my intention is in claiming this, and act accordingly (please?)
The pronoun phrase that I have italicised in the quote here refers to the information that "I feel safe in claiming this, based in other information I gained earlier" - not just the the information I gained earlier. Since a town rolecop is a pretty dangerous thing from scum's point of view, I'm really hoping the intended reader has worked out what I'm saying and knows what I want (and follows through).
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:59 pm UTC

This is copied from the response I sent to the mod prod just now:
Spoiler:
I'm genuinely sorry my contribution has been so patchy this game. Every time I think I'm in the clear with regards to time and mental energy, new things crop up. I know I've said it like three times, but my content should improve from now on.


I have time now, and a modicum of energy, so I won't waste it.

From a strictly pragmatic point of view, it benefits me not to lynch Madge or SirG. Not least because I believe that they are both town, and I think our efforts can be better spent finding Black Ajah. As for the interfactional town war, I think that should take second priority, as none of us can get a win if the Black Ajah do.

I can see the sense in the points GoP is making about Sabrar, but I'm wary that there might be some tunnelling going on. I can also see why players might vote matt, but I am leery about lynching someone with a townish power, even someone lurky (obviously I have no vested interest in activity not being used as a metric here :wink: )

As things stand, pure process of elimination leaves me with a short-list of lynch candidates: Sabrar, mpolo, GoP, bessie and matt96. I'm going to have to give them all a bit of analysis. AFAICT, they are the only possible scum based on public information (plus me I guess). Information that is better kept quiet for now allows me to narrow that list down further. I'll be back in a while with analysis of my short-list and hopefully enough for a vote.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:47 am UTC

Okay, quick thoughts,

mpolo is actually exonerated by receiving Jude's note, we have that in mod text. Strike his name from the list.

A response to SirG - you have to play to your wincon I guess, but I doubt you'll get the consensus of town to lynch fellow town for the benefit of a faction they aren't aligned with. Madge, I guess all I can say is that it's to the benefit of town to keep both town factions alive as long as possible in order to keep the majority from scum. I hope that's clear to you.

Sabrar has some good content and I like his posts earlier responding to GoP. He seems to be holding the balance between responding to GoP and scumhunting well, not tunnelling.

FMPOV bessie is confirmed town.

matt96 is really lurky, and the longer he is alive the more powerful his double vote becomes. If he's town, so much the better, and more power to the recruiter that gets him. If he's scum, we're going to be in trouble soon, as it's already five to lynch and assuming there's two scum left, one having a double vote means they control the vote after not too much longer.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:11 am UTC

I alluded to this earlier (D2 IIRC), and I still think it's better not to elaborate.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:28 am UTC

I will say that I also found that post a little difficult to understand. It reads as though you left something out, or changed the format partway through writing it.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:17 am UTC

Look, I'm squinting real hard at why you're pressing for more info.

Apparently, though, what I claimed may not have been what I meant. According to mafiawiki, normally rolecop just gets the role name, nothing else. Is that the case? Because I get the entire role as a result - name, power, Ajah, wincon, alignment.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:55 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:FMPOV, that would make your decision on who to vote for pretty simple, yet you have not voted.

Sure, that leaves me with the choice between a lurker with a fairly towny power whose utility to town increases with time and an active contributor who I'm not really reading as scummy. I'd rather not vote frivolously so late in the game, and Matt has promised content so I'm giving him time, but that's likely where my vote would end up.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:32 pm UTC

I have results saying mpolo is town. Doctors appointment now, more soon
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:23 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Why would you check mpolo who was confirmed Town?

Preparing for later, there's more complexity than town and scum here.

A thought: I would assume that the town factions don't have a factional kill. Otherwise we would have seen more deaths. Ergo, once all the black Ajah are dead, whoever has the larger faction has won.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:12 am UTC

If I might answer for bessie here - I think she said what she meant. You could have lied about your result, if you didn't actually cop Madge but used some other source of information (like say, knowing the scum team and using process of elimination) to accurately tell us Madge's alignment. It's much the same as the logic that you yourself have used not a page ago to cast doubt on my results.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:24 am UTC

Looking at the numbers (and I apologise if we've been over this already, I think we might've):

Now, it's eight alive, four to lynch.

If we lynch Sabrar and he flips town, matt is scum with a double vote, which puts us after a scum NK at 6 alive, three to lynch which is unsub!scum + matt*2. If we lynch matt, in the worst case where we are wrong, we have an extra day, which we use to lynch Sabrar and then mass-claim/elimination will get the last Black Ajah, then we can settle the town vs. town showdown.

Ninja puppies! Lethally adorable! - My bad, I misunderstood you.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:You can replicate being a Cop:

How many Black Ajah members were voting for bessie at the end of D1? -> Cop on Gopher of Pern
How many Black Ajah members were voting for ahippo at the end of D1? -> Cop on Carlington
How many Black Ajah members were voting for SirGabriel at the end of D2? -> Cop on bessie (after tomorrow morning's reveal)
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:38 pm UTC

Erm, sorry. That was not what I wanted to do.


Sabrar wrote:You can replicate being a Cop:

How many Black Ajah members were voting for bessie at the end of D1? -> Cop on Gopher of Pern
How many Black Ajah members were voting for ahippo at the end of D1? -> Cop on Carlington
How many Black Ajah members were voting for SirGabriel at the end of D2? -> Cop on bessie (after tomorrow morning's reveal)

I second this, assuming it's able to be used in this way. I don't know where the mod is drawing the line with regards to generality.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:40 pm UTC

EBWOP: We can even get multiple cop results, given my ability. I am willing to let the rest of you choose my target tonight.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:23 am UTC

I'm also red
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:23 am UTC

I thought I explained enough for everyone to work out why mpolo. I'm preparing for the fact that the larger faction will win once scum is eradicated. mpolo is not co-aligned with me to my knowledge, so it's useful to know whether he's part of another faction so we have a sense of the relative powers of the factions.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

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