This is a little disjointed. I haven’t had time to make a decent post D2, so I’m just going to post what I’m thinking and not take too much time to organize it.
Unexpected (by me at least) information from the role reveals: the two (confirmed) factions did not have chat, however:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:His win condition was to control the leadership of the White Tower or to eliminate all other players (or if nothing could prevent that). His faction controls a night kill, but only after one of the faction members was killed. His faction did not have any chat abilities.
I’m wondering how this factional kill is going to work without chat. Is it possible that the Black Ajah faction has now gained chat?
Sabrar wrote: And what was the Black Ajah doing before they gained a kill?
I’m also wondering about this, if they don’t have a recruit. I will think about it.
OK, I’m pretty flavor blind. And I’ve already said that I’m not sure how much we should expect the game flavor to be more than flavor. But I’m going to go out on a limb and speculate that the ter’angreal are controlled by the Black Ajah.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:It was also not that long ago that a whole group of Sisters had fled the Tower, stealing many ter’angreal.
The flavor suggests Jude was using ter’angreal to pass notes.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The Accepted presented a small wax tablet to Siuan. Leane gasped as she saw what was being presented. Quickly, she ushered the Accepted away.
“Well, that is something. I recognise it - it’s one of the stolen ter’angreals from the vaults. That can only mean one thing...”
So who else has claimed to have a ter’angreal?
Madge wrote:I received an item, but I don't think that exactly counts as a message. I have a one-shot kill due to receiving a dagger.
Wow, what a remarkable coincidence you received a dagger on the same night the Black Ajah gained a factional kill!
A dagger? Not a ter’angreal or something that would actually fit with the flavor?
Madge wrote:Sorry, I'm speaking in non-flavour speak because I don't understand flavour.
I received one of the Tower's ter'angreal, which is the Ebony Dagger
First thought when I saw this: nice save Madge. Later Sabrar claimed he too received a ter’angreal on N1 (Quartz Diviner). Ok, so maybe Madge does have a Quartz Dagger.
Re: Sabrar’s result
Sabrar wrote:- I received a 1-shot Cop ability N1 in the form of a ter’angreal which a note said to be the Quartz Diviner
- I clarified with the mod that it would show the target's faction (e.g. Elaida supporter, unaligned or something like that)
- I also clarified that the ability would resolve after any recruitment happens, so I learn the new alignment of the target
- I used it on Madge last night since she attracted a lot of heat D2 because of moody's comment
- The result says that she belongs Siuan Sanche's faction (and from the wording I do no think I was redirected)
To begin with, I don’t think that Madge belonged to Siuan’s faction on D2. She possibly was recruited last night. Maybe later we can debate the likelihood of Madge being recruited last night by Siuan (and the likelihood that someone gave Madge a 1-shot vig).
Reasons I don’t think Madge is a Siuan supporter (at least not on D2).
Madge’s first post
after SirGabriel’s claim does not question his claim to be Siuan Sanche. This post
after my revised setup speculation with 3 factions (Black Ajah, Siuan supporters, Elaida supporters) and a pool of unaligned still does not question SirGabriel’s claim to be Siuan. Also suggests getting rid of SirGabriel’s (Siuan’s) faction first.
Reason I think Madge did belong to a faction on D1.
This remark by moody (re bessie/dimochka) has been nagging at me since D1. I’ve written it up in my notes, but never went anywhere with it.
moody7277 wrote:1. Staged confrontation (which would have to have been impromptu at this point) for the purpose of distancing between scum!dim and scum!bessie.
I always thought it was strange that he speculated scum!dimochka and scum!bessie would have an impromptu staged confrontation. I assumed scum had day chat because of the nightless setup. So I didn’t really see it as a scum tell. If moody was scum, he would have day chat so…what? Now that we know scum and the Elaida faction didn’t have day chat (at least on D1), this reads like moody started out as a member of a faction, but it’s not clear evidence it was the Black Ajah faction.
Conclusion: Madge was a member of a faction on D1, and was not a member of Siuan’s faction D2.
Back to Sabrar's cop result. If Sabrar is telling the truth about receiving an item and about his result, I think it’s possible that this is a false result, and the ter’angreal was given to Sabrar by the Black Ajah (modified or fake ter'angreal).
Third option, Sabrar is lying about having a ter’angreal and is covering for a scum slip by Madge.
Note on option #3. This makes me believe on D2 Sabrar was a member of a non-Elaida faction. Could be Suian’s faction or the Black Ajah faction.
Sabrar wrote:At this point I think ahippo's flip would give us the most information, plus he told us that he was an Elaida supporter so fmpov he can no longer be Town in any scenario.
I want to go to this post, because I’ve been thinking about it for a few days and it doesn’t feel right to me.
Sabrar wrote:- totally understand bessie's vote but I think it's selfish and placed for the wrong reasons. If you really think Madge is Black Ajah, shouldn't you be voting for her as they are 100% scum, while Siuan might still be on Town's side? It is always possible for SirGabriel to later change his mind while scum will want you dead no matter what you do.
I don’t agree with you at all. And I question why you would even say this. My vote was placed for the correct reasons and I was playing to my most likely win condition. At the time I made that post, my setup speculation was three recruiting factions and a pool of unaligned players from which to recruit. I theorized SirGabriel’s faction would not be recruiting me. There was a chance that one of the other factions would eventually recruit me, so it would be in my best interests to get rid of the faction to which I would never belong.
Additionally, I checked the rules, and there is no rule stating that you can’t play against your win condition, probably because for such a rule to exist each player would need a clearly defined win condition. But this is irrelevant at any rate, as I wasn’t playing against my win condition.
And regarding the odds of SirGabriel changing his mind about tunneling on me D3:
SirGabriel wrote:Based on people's behavior, I think the most likely scum team is Jude, bessie, and moody/Madge.
Gopher of Pern wrote:I'll look more into their posts later, but for now:
Just a general request to everyone: please don’t make placeholder votes. If you’re convinced someone is scum, go ahead, but it’s only 5 votes to hammer and matt has a double vote. You may regret a vote you placed just to throw something up there if the wagon forms fast.
Ninja'd by Madge. I'll be back.