Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

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SirGabriel
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:04 pm UTC

After rereading the events of the day, my move is obvious: either Madge is lying, in which case she is Black Ajah and I can't win as long as she's alive, or she's telling the truth, in which case she is a Siuan supporter and I can't win as long as she's alive.

Vote: Madge

Also, for those of you who are unaligned, your win condition specifically states that you can only win if there's a strong leader in place. Mine (and presumbably Siuan's faction as well) just says that I win if all threats to town, including the opposing faction, are eliminated. Which means that you might not be able to win as unaligned if Siuan and Elaida both die, so it might be in your best interest to lynch her to keep Madge from killing me, even if you're not sure she's Black Ajah. Otherwise you'll just have to have to hope that Siuan either recruits you or lives to the end of the game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:07 pm UTC

@SirGabriel: at this point I think your best chance at survival is to ask Madge what she wants to know in exchange for not getting killed by her. I would say clarifying the False Inventor thing is a good question but it doesn't really offer anything for your own win-condition.

Ninja'd again, will think about it.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SirGabriel: at this point I think your best chance at survival is to ask Madge what she wants to know in exchange for not getting killed by her.

It couldn't hurt to ask. Madge, is there any information I can give you tomorrow that will keep you from killing me tonight?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:04 pm UTC

SirGabriel, you're missing the fact that the black Ajah have a NK now. We lynch Madge, and then another town dies, that leaves 2 scum with 7 players, with the 5 town still at each others throats. It'd be even worse if dim is modkilled.

I don't see how you can think there is a possibility that madge is black ajah. Any Siuan supporters would know that madge is not on their team, or if she has been recruited, they would know she is lying about being a supporter from day 1.

That said, bessie's suggestion is a good one. Offer to ask how many black ajah were voting for Diemo day 1, and madge might stay the dagger, at least for one night.

Sabrar wrote:
matt96 wrote:I suppose the idea was that the Black ajah was intended to try to avoid getting exposed while letting the siuan and elaida's factional conflict weaken town.
I would think that a scum team with no chat and no factional ability would be quite weak, but with other competing factions that can draw attention to themselves that's a possibility.


I really don't like this. It is completely downplaying the scum in this game. Yeah, no initial NK and no chat makes them weaker than the traditional scum. But they had a misinformation power, plus 2 other likely powers. And ther was a faction that was expressly told that they weren't a threat, along with basically 2 competing towns who want to lynch each other. If dim didn't get the kill off last night, we'd have Jude still in the game, and we would probably think that there were no scum. If madge and SirGabriel keep going at each other, scum will probably win.

In fact, with your emphasis on things I consider to be very low probabilities (false inventor), and constant misrepresentation of other people, I'm really starting to think you're one of the scum.
Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:bessie - Sabrar. Possible. Sabrar took the opportunity to unvote bessie when she wasn't leading the votals anymore.
Correction: I unvoted bessie when she still would have been lynched.

Correcting your correction: You unvoted bessie when you could ensure someone else was lynched. So you essentially saved bessie. That was me being unclear. My point still stands.

Unvote
Vote: Sabrar


I'm thinking a Sabrar - bessie scum team atm. I'm thinking it's more likely that Sabrar is scum than bessie though.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:19 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:In fact, with your emphasis on things I consider to be very low probabilities (false inventor),
Please re-read any of my previous games, it's simply how I play, considering every possible option. If you're unwilling to do the effort, just re-read Pen Pal D3.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm thinking a Sabrar - bessie scum team atm.
Of course. I bus my team-mate early in the game (which btw I never do, especially not if I can't get their consent due to having no chat) and then I wait until the original deadline is past by 2 hours to heroically jump in and save her. Brilliant deduction.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:31 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:In fact, with your emphasis on things I consider to be very low probabilities (false inventor),
Please re-read any of my previous games, it's simply how I play, considering every possible option. If you're unwilling to do the effort, just re-read Pen Pal D3.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm thinking a Sabrar - bessie scum team atm.
Of course. I bus my team-mate early in the game (which btw I never do, especially not if I can't get their consent due to having no chat) and then I wait until the original deadline is past by 2 hours to heroically jump in and save her. Brilliant deduction.


I'm not reading other games. It's fine that you mention low probabilities. Laudable even. But suggesting to waste a truthful deduction on a low probability goes way beyond.

I'm not going to take your word on bussing team mates. You were a very early vote on bessie, to distance yourself as scum buddies. Then it got out of hand. But then you found yourself in a perfect position to switch.

Of course, it could be just you and not bessie who are scum. After all, its not like you've done much scum hunting recently.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:37 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm not reading other games.
Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm not going to take your word on bussing team mates.
So you're basically saying that you think everyone plays the game absolutely the same, that previous games of a given player do not matter when establishing that player's meta and that you do not make the effort to consider otherwise. Great job. And yes, that was me misrepresenting you again but I guess I came pretty close with my interpretation.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:41 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm not reading other games.
Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm not going to take your word on bussing team mates.
So you're basically saying that you think everyone plays the game absolutely the same, that previous games of a given player do not matter when establishing that player's meta and that you do not make the effort to consider otherwise. Great job. And yes, that was me misrepresenting you again but I guess I came pretty close with my interpretation.


Or, a players meta can change, and reading through previous games may help, but ultimately is a lot of work for little gain (see: ahippo).

But yeah, keep focusing on those points, and not the rest of my argument, it's really helping your case here.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:37 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SirGabriel: at this point I think your best chance at survival is to ask Madge what she wants to know in exchange for not getting killed by her.
Not true. His best chance of keeping Madge from killing him is lynching Madge.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I don't see how you can think there is a possibility that madge is black ajah. Any Siuan supporters would know that madge is not on their team, or if she has been recruited, they would know she is lying about being a supporter from day 1.
Is it possible Siuan and her supporters don’t know each other’s identities? I’m not expecting anyone to answer this. Just think about it. Because I think the scum team is Sabrar and Madge.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Madge » Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:36 am UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@SirGabriel: at this point I think your best chance at survival is to ask Madge what she wants to know in exchange for not getting killed by her.

It couldn't hurt to ask. Madge, is there any information I can give you tomorrow that will keep you from killing me tonight?


I've been thinking about it and if you die tonight, a new recruiter comes in your faction. I'll let you live if I can believe that a roleblocker will target you, since that's strictly better.

If I use my weapon tonight I can't use my regular power, so I might well withhold the kill.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Madge » Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:41 am UTC

EBWOP but then again the roleblocker means we don't get the useful oracle information. So maybe not much benefit to keeping you alive then.

And you could swear up and down that you won't recruit, but it's in your interest to lie, so i won't be able to believe you. Sorry. I think you're toast.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby mpolo » Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:59 am UTC

Unvote: bessie

Need to look into this more closely, as I am realizing a somewhat different setup than I thought before.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:42 am UTC

bessie wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I don't see how you can think there is a possibility that madge is black ajah. Any Siuan supporters would know that madge is not on their team, or if she has been recruited, they would know she is lying about being a supporter from day 1.
Is it possible Siuan and her supporters don’t know each other’s identities? I’m not expecting anyone to answer this. Just think about it. Because I think the scum team is Sabrar and Madge.


Presumably, Siuan (or the leader of the faction) would know who they recruit. So any supporter that the leader doesn't know would be an initial supporter. Unless they recruit randomly? Seems far fetched, but it's a possibility.

Matt? Carlington? Dim? We're talking in circles here if you don't chip in.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Madge » Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:22 am UTC

I know the identity of everyone in my faction, including people that were recruited on previous nights. I'm not the recruiter, so I suspect the same is true for the other team and the black team.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:30 am UTC

@Gopher of Pern: let's try this one more time in case you're not scum and really want my opinion.

1. You state that I act in ways that you find scummy.
2. I state that I can show you previous examples where I behaved in the exact same way (and btw that includes misreading rules/misunderstanding people)
3. You state that you don't care.
4. How do you think I should reply to that? I offer you proof that what you see is not scummy and you disregard that. You just state that "player's meta can change" but this is not meta, it's the core of who I am IRL.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Unless they recruit randomly? Seems far fetched, but it's a possibility.
Look who's bringing up low probabilities now. Double standards much?

bessie wrote:Is it possible Siuan and her supporters don’t know each other’s identities? I’m not expecting anyone to answer this. Just think about it. Because I think the scum team is Sabrar and Madge.
Could you elaborate on how the two things are in any way related?

Read-list coming in the afternoon (probably, depends on work).

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:10 am UTC

dimochka has been modprodded

One of the Sisters went around and shut all the windows to keep the gusts out. As she did so, a final mournful breath of air blew in carrying the voice once more.

Votals:

Madge(1): SirGabriel
Sabrar(1): Gopher of Pern

Not voting: everybody else

Soft deadline is tomorrow, 7pm UTC, Tuesday 7th February. As things stand, Madge will be lynched.

I have been unable to find any replacements and so am going to need to modkill inactive players. However, I am willing to consider not doing so, if people prefer if inactive players are left alive, even if they rarely post. Please PM me and the co-mods your preference.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:20 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Gopher of Pern: let's try this one more time in case you're not scum and really want my opinion.

1. You state that I act in ways that you find scummy.
2. I state that I can show you previous examples where I behaved in the exact same way (and btw that includes misreading rules/misunderstanding people)
3. You state that you don't care.
4. How do you think I should reply to that? I offer you proof that what you see is not scummy and you disregard that. You just state that "player's meta can change" but this is not meta, it's the core of who I am IRL.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Unless they recruit randomly? Seems far fetched, but it's a possibility.
Look who's bringing up low probabilities now. Double standards much?

bessie wrote:Is it possible Siuan and her supporters don’t know each other’s identities? I’m not expecting anyone to answer this. Just think about it. Because I think the scum team is Sabrar and Madge.
Could you elaborate on how the two things are in any way related?

Read-list coming in the afternoon (probably, depends on work).


Just because you do those things as town does not preclude you from doing them as scum. You addressed maybe two of my points? Your defense was, I do that as town. That does not make it not scummy. Especially in different games. (Sorry for the double negative.)

Double standards? Hell, I said that pointing them out is a good thing, but you are focusing on it. You wanted someone to use a question on it! That is what I find scummy, not simply pointing it out. Plus, I wasn't the one to bring it up. I was following someone elses thought.

Your constant misrepresentation is my biggest scum tell. Your lack of scum hunting this day is my next biggest.

Frankly, defending yourself by saying, "Oh it's who I am" is the weakest defence in the book. This is a game in which it is fundamental that people lie and manipulate others to win. Yes, even as town (especially in this particular game).

Trying to make things clear: Saying "I do this as town" Does not mean you are not scum. As scum, you are trying to be as townie as possible, so that would mean you would do those things anyway. Thats why I find your defence so lacking. Do you act different as scum? Do you not do those things I mentioned as scum? I very much doubt it.

Provide a new defence if you want me to move my vote. Frankly, if you are town, your focus on this issue, and other low probability stuff, distracts us from real scum hunting.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:50 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Just because you do those things as town does not preclude you from doing them as scum.
This is absolutely true, however my point is that you seem unwilling to take this into consideration when you're attacking me. But I don't think you see my pov so let's move on.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Double standards? Hell, I said that pointing them out is a good thing, but you are focusing on it. You wanted someone to use a question on it!
Please provide a better question for SirGabriel if you think mine is bad. I at least gave a suggestion, while mentioning why he probably shouldn't use it. You're misrepresenting me here in a big way.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Plus, I wasn't the one to bring it up. I was following someone elses thought.
So you were 'focusing' on a low probability scenario. See how the double standard applies?

Gopher of Pern wrote:Your constant misrepresentation is my biggest scum tell.
I addressed this one already but you're unwilling to see my point.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Your lack of scum hunting this day is my next biggest.
I know it's weird but occasionally I have real life stuff to take care of, especially during the weekend. Can you look up how little content was posted Thursday/Friday? I even tried moving the thread forward by revealing my result earlier than I planned to. The lack of players in my time-zone really makes it difficult for me to get a proper discussion going as most of the content is posted when I'm asleep.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Frankly, defending yourself by saying, "Oh it's who I am" is the weakest defence in the book.
I don't care. I'm not going to change because of a game.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Trying to make things clear: Saying "I do this as town" Does not mean you are not scum. As scum, you are trying to be as townie as possible, so that would mean you would do those things anyway. Thats why I find your defence so lacking. Do you act different as scum? Do you not do those things I mentioned as scum? I very much doubt it.
So now you seem to admit with me that I can behave the same way whether or not I'm town or scum. But you're still attacking me because of the way I behave. That just doesn't make any sense, because at this point the way I behave should not be a justification for me being scum. Because I will behave in the exact same way in future games, and you will attack me because of the way I behave, meaning you will always attack me regardless of my alignment. Do you understand my point now?

Gopher of Pern wrote:Frankly, if you are town, your focus on this issue, and other low probability stuff, distracts us from real scum hunting.
What is this other low-probability stuff you keep mentioning?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:58 pm UTC

Posting what I have on the unlikely suspects, more later:

dimochka: have seen a game once where scum killed his own teammate to gain town-cred. Convinced that this isn't the case here.
mpolo: only scum if recruited N2. Very unlikely scenario.
SirGabriel: confirmed as Elaida, don't think he could be recruited.

Madge: claims to know all members of her faction, was from the get-go a supporter of Siuan plus I have a Cop result confirming it and GF is unlikely if that's the only Cop in game. D3 content is mostly replying to bessie, without doing any analysis. She made a big show on D2 about being completely blind regarding SirGabriel's and ahippo's claims and cults. Still can't find anything wrong with moody's D1 content. D2 is the only thing that worries me about her, otherwise she feels like standard Madge, unlikely to be Black Ajah.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:10 pm UTC

bessie: keeps pushing Madge, in response Madge reveals more and more about her role. I feel like somehow this is intentional. Her scum-hunting looks good otherwise, though in my opinion she is too sure about her own reads and focuses too hard on the 'Sabrar claims Cop to save Madge' scenario. I was fooled by scum!bessie before so not going to exclude her from the list of suspects, but currently she is not someone I would lynch.

Carlington: lurker, claimed Role-Cop at a time when I don't think he would have needed to. If actual Cop is not play then it would make sense though to have that role. Very light on content, seems to be consistent D1 / D2. Definitely could be Black Ajah, though it is interesting to note how everyone else (except for Gopher of Pern) seems to be ignoring him.

Gopher of Pern: don't have the time/mood right now to try to make a proper read without any bias. Will try evening/tomorrow.

matt96: only posts to avoid being mod-killed with no analysis/reads/whatever. Hides behind townie-looking power. Definitely scummy.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Is it possible Siuan and her supporters don’t know each other’s identities? I’m not expecting anyone to answer this. Just think about it. Because I think the scum team is Sabrar and Madge.
Could you elaborate on how the two things are in any way related?
Because I’m reading Madge as scum. The only evidence that there is a Team Siuan faction is your cop result. I’m considering the possibility that there is no Team Siuan. No one counterclaimed SirGabriel yesterday when he claimed to be Siuan Sanche including Madge.

Madge wrote:And you could swear up and down that you won't recruit, but it's in your interest to lie, so i won't be able to believe you. Sorry. I think you're toast.
Madge, if you are telling the truth, if we mislynch today and you kill SirGabriel, mafia will NK Siuan Sanche and win. Sabrar, why are you not calling her out on this?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:56 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Sabrar, why are you not calling her out on this?
Because unlike you I have no information about scum's win condition. I assumed so far that it is the usual, i.e. need to reach parity with non-scum which definitely won't happen tonight with 2-out-of-9 scum remaining, even if it is matt with double-vote. You seem to imply that it is enough for them to eliminate the 2 faction-leaders. Why are you so sure about this?

BTW
SirGabriel wrote:And regarding my claim at the beginning of D2, I know that Siuan is in the game and I know the colors of myself and all my supporters, as well as Diemo's color, and since there were no duplicates, I initially took that to imply that there was exactly one from each color in the game.
So if Siuan is not in the game then SirGabriel is lying, presumably lying about everything, therefore probably needs to be also eliminated.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby mpolo » Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:23 pm UTC

I was going to ask one of the claimed faction members about whether they knew all the members, but Madge pre-empted that.

I think that Madge is scum if and only if Sabrar is also scum. This is a possibility, of course.

I do want to know why JudeMorrigan would deflect a lynch away from bessie. This seems like unusual "sticking out your neck" with no obvious motive for a scum faction. Why do you think you were saved by the Black Ajah, bessie?
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:29 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern: before he started laser-focusing me his analysis (especially this post) was quite reasonable. He was not under any kind of pressure, so attacking me doesn't feel like a gambit to divert attention, except if he was trying to save his scumbuddy but the only players who received votes at that point were Madge and bessie. bessie - GoP scum-pair is extremely unlikely, so if Gopher of Pern is scum then his partner has to be Madge who he defended pretty hard, meaning bessie was right and there is no Siuan faction in the game. The other possibility of course is that he's Town and jumped from bessie-matt scum-team to bessie-Sabrar to Sabrar-whoever. This also doesn't feel right but Occam's razor would point to that one as being correct.

Possibilities:
a) bessie is right and Siuan is not present in the game (we know SirGabriel received at least one misleading piece of info from the mod, this might another one or he could have just flat out lied to us). Then my guess for scum-team would be Gopher of Pern and Madge, but then my Cop must have been tinkered with. This is still a possibility but requires too many separate pieces to be reasonable.
b) Siuan's faction is in the game, for some reason nobody counterclaimed SirGabriel. Possibly Siuan is a lurker who simply wasn't online and the rest of the faction waited on their action before
revealing themselves (checked back, only dimochka and Carlington didn't post between SirGabriel's two claims, both of them seem unlikely). In that case my guess would be matt96 and probably Carlington, with a small possibility of bessie instead.

Going with the most likely scenario:

Vote: matt96

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby dimochka » Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:20 pm UTC

I'll have one big post later tonight, no clue what will be in it yet because i'm not caught up on D3. I'm trying to keep up with it but had no internet access all weekend and work is still sadly crazy busy.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby matt96 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:23 pm UTC

Just want to confirm I'm reading this correctly before a larger post tonight. Sabrar, are you voting for me obecause you believe me to be Siuan, not a member of the black ajah?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:38 pm UTC

Carlington has been modprodded. As a fair warning to all players, I may not modprod a player a fourth time, and instead may move straight to replacement/modkill.

The wind buffeted the outside of the Tower, and through the walls, the Sisters could still here the howling sounds that eerily sounded like names and numbers.

Votals:

Madge(1): SirGabriel
Sabrar(1): Gopher of Pern
matt96(1): Sabrar

Not voting: everybody else

As things stand, Madge will be lynched.

Soft deadline is tomorrow, 7pm UTC, Tuesday 7th February, approximately 19 1/2 hours from now. Please remember to submit your night actions, as I would like to process night over the course of a few hours (i.e. by the end of Tuesday), if possible.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:59 pm UTC

This is copied from the response I sent to the mod prod just now:
Spoiler:
I'm genuinely sorry my contribution has been so patchy this game. Every time I think I'm in the clear with regards to time and mental energy, new things crop up. I know I've said it like three times, but my content should improve from now on.


I have time now, and a modicum of energy, so I won't waste it.

From a strictly pragmatic point of view, it benefits me not to lynch Madge or SirG. Not least because I believe that they are both town, and I think our efforts can be better spent finding Black Ajah. As for the interfactional town war, I think that should take second priority, as none of us can get a win if the Black Ajah do.

I can see the sense in the points GoP is making about Sabrar, but I'm wary that there might be some tunnelling going on. I can also see why players might vote matt, but I am leery about lynching someone with a townish power, even someone lurky (obviously I have no vested interest in activity not being used as a metric here :wink: )

As things stand, pure process of elimination leaves me with a short-list of lynch candidates: Sabrar, mpolo, GoP, bessie and matt96. I'm going to have to give them all a bit of analysis. AFAICT, they are the only possible scum based on public information (plus me I guess). Information that is better kept quiet for now allows me to narrow that list down further. I'll be back in a while with analysis of my short-list and hopefully enough for a vote.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:32 am UTC

Carlington wrote:As for the interfactional town war, I think that should take second priority, as none of us can get a win if the Black Ajah do.

If you can convince Madge of that, I would be happy to go back to hunting scum. But my faction's chances if I die tonight aren't looking good, and if I lose, it makes no difference to me whether the winner is Siuan's faction or the Black Ajah.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:47 am UTC

Okay, quick thoughts,

mpolo is actually exonerated by receiving Jude's note, we have that in mod text. Strike his name from the list.

A response to SirG - you have to play to your wincon I guess, but I doubt you'll get the consensus of town to lynch fellow town for the benefit of a faction they aren't aligned with. Madge, I guess all I can say is that it's to the benefit of town to keep both town factions alive as long as possible in order to keep the majority from scum. I hope that's clear to you.

Sabrar has some good content and I like his posts earlier responding to GoP. He seems to be holding the balance between responding to GoP and scumhunting well, not tunnelling.

FMPOV bessie is confirmed town.

matt96 is really lurky, and the longer he is alive the more powerful his double vote becomes. If he's town, so much the better, and more power to the recruiter that gets him. If he's scum, we're going to be in trouble soon, as it's already five to lynch and assuming there's two scum left, one having a double vote means they control the vote after not too much longer.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:28 am UTC

Carlington wrote:FMPOV bessie is confirmed town.

Why?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:11 am UTC

I alluded to this earlier (D2 IIRC), and I still think it's better not to elaborate.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby bessie » Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:12 am UTC

Well obviously no one reads anything I post. Replies to questions/D3 recap:
Sabrar wrote:Because unlike you I have no information about scum's win condition. I assumed so far that it is the usual, i.e. need to reach parity with non-scum which definitely won't happen tonight with 2-out-of-9 scum remaining, even if it is matt with double-vote. You seem to imply that it is enough for them to eliminate the 2 faction-leaders. Why are you so sure about this?
I’m not. Any information that I have about any win condition in this game can be gleaned from information publicly available in this thread. But it seems like if Team Siuan needs Siuan to be Amyrlin to win, and Team Elaida need Elaida to be Amyrlin to win, Team Black Ajah will have a better chance of winning if they’re both dead.

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:And regarding my claim at the beginning of D2, I know that Siuan is in the game and I know the colors of myself and all my supporters, as well as Diemo's color, and since there were no duplicates, I initially took that to imply that there was exactly one from each color in the game.
So if Siuan is not in the game then SirGabriel is lying, presumably lying about everything, therefore probably needs to be also eliminated.
I’m viewing everything SirGabriel said D2 with a measure of skepticism. I just skimmed his D3 posts to see if he stated again that he knew Siuan was in the game and I didn’t see it but it might be there somewhere. So OK, my only "proof" that Siuan is in the game is that your cop result and SirGabriel says she is.

Observation: No one has claimed or counterclaimed Madge.
Conclusion: Madge’s faction sees no need to claim because they’re currently all hidden and strong because of it. OR there is no one to counterclaim because there is no Siuan faction, just a Black Ajah mafia faction, an Elaida third-party faction, and an “unaligned” town faction because Siuan is already the Amyrlin so they don’t need to do anything but preserve the status quo to win.

Which is it? I don’t know. From my point of view, Madge’s performance on D2 was either a super scummy scum slip, or a super brilliant save while she assessed the situation, caught up with the content, and waited for her team to show up. And Madge is capable of being super brilliant.

And now back to people that don't read my posts.
mpolo wrote:I do want to know why JudeMorrigan would deflect a lynch away from bessie. This seems like unusual "sticking out your neck" with no obvious motive for a scum faction. Why do you think you were saved by the Black Ajah, bessie?
Perhaps something about Diemo’s content/flavor knowledge worried him. Diemo was one of the few players that wasn’t flavor blind. Most of Jude’s content was flavor driven. Most of his case on ahippo was flavor based. And this is not a new observation by me. I said it here on D2.
bessie wrote:JudeMorrigan – Has posted a reasonable amount of content, including player reads, but it should be noted that his scum reads are flavor-driven. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, as I am still pretty flavor blind (I look up what I need for this game), and I don’t yet have a solid opinion on how much the game’s structure depends on the flavor.


I don’t believe Jude was particularly trying to save me from the D1 lynch as much as he was setting Diemo up for D2. He voted when I was comfortably leading the votals. He was his team’s leader. They didn’t have chat. Perhaps they interpreted his vote as a signal to follow. I already made this speculation here.
bessie wrote:mpolo, you’re voting for me for the wrong reasons. Jude’s team followed him on to Diemo’s wagon. He was the Black Ajah leader and they didn’t have chat. I might be scum. Someone on Diemo's wagon is definitely scum.


And because everything always goes back to Madge:
SirGabriel wrote:If you can convince Madge of that, I would be happy to go back to hunting scum. But my faction's chances if I die tonight aren't looking good, and if I lose, it makes no difference to me whether the winner is Siuan's faction or the Black Ajah.
I understand your point of view. I also somehow believe that I will be the object of your attention.
SirGabriel wrote:Based on people's behavior, I think the most likely scum team is Jude, bessie, and moody/Madge. And the fact that those are the same three scum reads I had in my D2 analysis post makes me even more confident in that conclusion.

Which leads me here.
Carlington wrote:A response to SirG - you have to play to your wincon I guess, but I doubt you'll get the consensus of town to lynch fellow town for the benefit of a faction they aren't aligned with.
I have to say I agree with Carlington here. The part about getting help from those not in your faction. Not the part about Madge being confirmed town, which she’s not.

Perhaps I will annoy Madge enough that she targets me instead. I have about 12 hours to accomplish this. Madge, are you going to post?

SirGabriel wrote:
Carlington wrote:FMPOV bessie is confirmed town.

Why?
Carlington believes something about me is more likely to be townie than scummy. Must be my spectacularly townie content throughout this entire game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:31 am UTC

matt96 wrote:Just want to confirm I'm reading this correctly before a larger post tonight. Sabrar, are you voting for me obecause you believe me to be Siuan, not a member of the black ajah?
I'm a bit confused, where do you get this from? I voted for you because I think that you're lurking scum. I thought I was clear about that.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:28 am UTC

I will say that I also found that post a little difficult to understand. It reads as though you left something out, or changed the format partway through writing it.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:30 am UTC

bessie wrote:But it seems like if Team Siuan needs Siuan to be Amyrlin to win, and Team Elaida need Elaida to be Amyrlin to win, Team Black Ajah will have a better chance of winning if they’re both dead.
I do read your content but that's not what you said earlier.

bessie wrote:Madge, if you are telling the truth, if we mislynch today and you kill SirGabriel, mafia will NK Siuan Sanche and win.
This is specifically saying that mafia wins N3 in that scenario.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:35 am UTC

@Carlington: in case that was directed at me, I added the bolded part to my original post, my reason for finding matt scummy is in an earlier post. I tried to avoid too much word-repetition that's why it wasn't spelled-out. As for the format I always do my longer posts in Notepad and sometimes copying it to the forum breaks it, I try to correct before posting but don't always catch everything.

Sabrar wrote:b) Siuan's faction is in the game, for some reason nobody counterclaimed SirGabriel. Possibly Siuan is a lurker who simply wasn't online and the rest of the faction waited on their action before
revealing themselves (checked back, only dimochka and Carlington didn't post between SirGabriel's two claims, both of them seem unlikely). In that case my guess (for the scum-team) would be matt96 and probably Carlington, with a small possibility of bessie instead.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:56 am UTC

Carlington wrote:I alluded to this earlier (D2 IIRC), and I still think it's better not to elaborate.


I still don't get it. Do you mean the cryptic message you put up after claiming role cop? We know you targeted SirGabriel N2, but who did you target N1? bessie? The only thing I can think why you wouldn't say is if you targeted her, and she shows up as Siuan, and she recruited you.

matt96 wrote:Just want to confirm I'm reading this correctly before a larger post tonight. Sabrar, are you voting for me obecause you believe me to be Siuan, not a member of the black ajah?


I hope you actually post something. We've been lied to before. *sniff*

Been rereading through Jude's posts. His early townlist is interesting:
1. JudeMorrigan
Duh

2. SirGabriel
3. moody
4. Sabrar

These three form a tier for me. I feel like SirGabriel's smacking me with the clue stick about the content of the rules I'd skimmed over was on point. I feel like all three have been trying to make real analysis of the bessie-dim interactions and even if I don't know that I entirely agree with their conclusions, I approve of scumhunting. I consider it extremely unlikely that my D1 vote will go to any of these three.

5. mpolo

Reads townie to me, but I feel like I have less to go on that with the previous three.

6. bessie
7. dimochka

Yeah, I've got bessie middle of the pack. The arguments against her are cogent and reasoned, but dagnabbit, their interactions read town-on-town to me. I can't ignore the more experienced players reads, but for now I'm going with my gut.

8. Gopher of Pern
9. matt96

These two are complete "mwrr, I have no idea". The ordering for these two was completely arbitrary.

10. ahippo

Now, given the mistakes I've made, I can't hold his screwing up the number of ajahs against him. But I still can't shake the feeling that he's Elaida. He seems awfully confident she's in the game. This may be confirmation bias, but his "I'm not expecting to be much of a leader" jumped out at me during my reread as potentially being signaling to his factionmate(s). I still think that if I'm right about this that he wouldn't be black ajah. So I'm very much hoping I have more decisive reads in that direction after my Saturday reread.

11. carlington

Carlington's really more of an Incomplete than anything else. He had warned us that he'd be absent the first couple of rl days. Looking forward to hearing from you!

12. diemo


Three of the people they put sort of on their own have turned up to be town. It would make sense that they would try to obfuscate fellow scum with other people. Which leaves a
GoP - matt pair
bessie - dim pair
SirGabriel - Madge - Sabrar trio

I think I will take Sabrar's points to heart (Yes, I was listening to you, even if I disagree with most of your points)
Unvote
Vote: matt96


If matt is scum, a double vote is pretty powerful. If they're town, they aren't helping anyway. I've got a heavy feeling that one of bessie or Sabrar is mafia, but I can't be sure which one. I'm hoping Carlington can provide some information that may help one way or another.

Thinking hard about everything, I feel like these are the most likely pairings:
matt - Sabrar
bessie - Carlington
matt- bessie
Look In My Face
Stare In My Soul
I Begin To Stupefy

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Carlington » Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:17 am UTC

Look, I'm squinting real hard at why you're pressing for more info.

Apparently, though, what I claimed may not have been what I meant. According to mafiawiki, normally rolecop just gets the role name, nothing else. Is that the case? Because I get the entire role as a result - name, power, Ajah, wincon, alignment.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:21 am UTC

That's a very strong ability then and makes Carlington's earlier comments much more understandable. However at this point some kind of Godfather comes back as being a possibility.


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