Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

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Sabrar
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:31 pm UTC

You think that jimbob would create a game where we could easily determine scum by their false-claims? Yeah, I'm not buying that.

And what happened suddenly to your additional information that makes it very likely that bessie is scum?

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Gopher of Pern
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:36 pm UTC

It appeals to me. And it makes a lot of things fall into place.

The additional information hinges on what someone said. I do not trust that person any more.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:32 am UTC

mpolo wrote:I could have taken the brown power or ahippo's power, but they didn't impress me as powers that were particularly useful. Alviarin's power was completely useless to me as town. So I waited to claim a power that is actually useful.
So if you claimed a power on N3, as you said you did, how did you know Madge’s color or power? Her role reveal wasn’t until D4.

mpolo wrote:Bessie's theory about a busdriver/redirector is interesting, but do we have any evidence that one is in the game? This would also be needed to explain why an evil ter'angreal passer-outer would send a ter'angreal to Madge.
No we don’t have any evidence of a bus driver or redirector. It’s one of four possibilities I suggested in response to Sabrar’s question. And as to why an evil ter’angrael passer-outer would give Madge a dagger, I think I’ve covered that at least twice.

Sabrar wrote:How in hell would redirector know that I was lying? They don't know that SDK is my scum-mate, they don't know that I received Black Ajah as a result, they don't know if their redirect was successful (e.g. could have been roleblocked),
If a redirector redirected you from kalira to anyone else in the game, or a bus driver switched SDK and kalira, and you claimed a result on kalira, they would know you are lying. It would be irrelevant why you were lying, just the fact that you were lying would be suspicious.

Sabrar wrote:they don't know how my results pm was worded.
No one knows how your pm was worded. I’ve already said that I’m not taking your, or anyone else’s for that matter, statement that they received info in a pm, as proof that they actually received a pm with the claimed information.


Sabrar wrote:You keep bringing up convoluted scenarios that can easily be disproved because at this point no one will be claiming redirector (assuming townies don't lie). And if scum has redirector then they wouldn't have targeted scum!me.

I brought it up? I was responding to this:
Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar could have a “good” ter’angreal or he could have lied about having one or about his results.
I'm curious, what is your train of thought here?

Oh and this:
Sabrar wrote:No, as mentioned above that is covered by the 'he could have lied about having one' part of her analysis and I understand the logic there. The thing I wanted to ask her about is the 'lying about his results' part of her sentence that I underlined, how it is differentiated from the other possibilities.
And the reason I’m still talking about it is that you asked me a question to which I am responding. Again.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:and Diemo and ahippo had already flipped with a watcher/tracker powers.
That doesn't mean anything, dimochka claimed Vigilante, Madge claimed to have received 1-shot vigilante so power-duplication was definitely possible.
Duplication, maybe, but three watcher/tracker powers is more questionable.


Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:At least I have been trying to facilitate discussion.
No, you are chasing ghosts because of some hidden agenda.
Perhaps I have been chasing ghosts. At least I’m talking. OK, if you insist, new topic!

Reasons We Should Lynch Sabrar Instead Of matt
1. matt’s double vote won’t stop him from being lynched tomorrow, so it does not need to be taken into consideration for the purposes of today’s lynch.
2. If matt is scum, he doesn’t have a night power, so he can’t use a power against town at night. (Note: matt might have a ter’angreal and he might be able to perform the factional night kill. But so would Sabrar or Scum #3.)
3. Sabrar has not claimed a power. If he is scum he might be able to use a power against town tonight.
4. I’ve already speculated that Sabrar belongs to Team Siuan or the Black Ajah, and Siuan hasn’t claimed him yet. matt hasn’t been claimed by anyone either, but he also hasn’t revealed any sign that he belongs to a team.


Re: Gopher of Pern’s color theory.
I’ve been working on theories involving the colors for a while. See this post. So I think your theory lines up with many of my thoughts. I’m a little wary of mpolo because I think his claim is possible but his content is questionable. Also, since you group yourself with matt, you clear yourself tomorrow if you’re both scum. I believe Carlington has some kind of cop power, even if he hasn’t been completely truthful about it. It could be Carlington is a scummy role cop, however I’m not yet discarding the possibility of Carlington being town. Or the possibility that Siuan is an NPC and another Blue is the Team Siuan leader/recruiter. But tomorrow, we will definitely know which one of [Sabrar, matt] is Black Ajah, and we may additionally know the other’s color (if we lynch town), so things may fall into place.

Sabrar wrote:You think that jimbob would create a game where we could easily determine scum by their false-claims?
This is a valid point.

Gopher of Pern wrote:The additional information hinges on what someone said. I do not trust that person any more.
I’m just acknowledging that I’ve read your comment.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Sun Feb 12, 2017 1:58 am UTC

If colour duplication indicating scum is the running theory, let the record show that I am actually Red, not Black masquerading. I have one result left to claim which is verifiable by the player (Ms. Itawa...may I call you Helena?) but I won't claim it until they say it's okay.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 12, 2017 3:09 am UTC

I can confirm Carlington has at least one everything-cop. Or we’re scum together. He knows my name.

Anyone that doubts my color claim should read this post, my final post on D1. I was comfortably leading the votals with 5 votes, deadline was in 3 hours, and I was leaving for work so would not be posting again in this game. Or so I thought.


Carlington, you better be town. I did what you asked me to do.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sun Feb 12, 2017 4:37 am UTC

Carlington wrote:If colour duplication indicating scum is the running theory, let the record show that I am actually Red, not Black masquerading.


So, you're town, not scum?

What led me to think this is both ahippo and Jude were both white, however, one was black as well.

Carlington, are you confident that your ability would detect that they are black?

bessie wrote:Re: Gopher of Pern’s color theory.
I’ve been working on theories involving the colors for a while. See this post. So I think your theory lines up with many of my thoughts. I’m a little wary of mpolo because I think his claim is possible but his content is questionable. Also, since you group yourself with matt, you clear yourself tomorrow if you’re both scum. I believe Carlington has some kind of cop power, even if he hasn’t been completely truthful about it. It could be Carlington is a scummy role cop, however I’m not yet discarding the possibility of Carlington being town. Or the possibility that Siuan is an NPC and another Blue is the Team Siuan leader/recruiter. But tomorrow, we will definitely know which one of [Sabrar, matt] is Black Ajah, and we may additionally know the other’s color (if we lynch town), so things may fall into place.


Looking at your previous post, something stuck out to me.

Faction 1: Black Ajah
Black/White, Alviarin Freidhen, possible Godfather, cops as White. Recruiter, controls Myddralls.
Power speculation: D1 recruit, for game mechanics (ensure game doesn’t end D1). Alternate recruit/night kill. Can recruit any other player in the game.

Faction 2: Suian Supporters
Blue, Suian Sanche, SirGabriel. Recruiter, alternate night or limited.
Blue, Leane Sharif, ahippo.
Power speculation: Recruit on Faction 3 or unaligned Red will fail. Can be secretly recruited by Faction 1. Can false recruit Faction 1.

Faction 3: Elaida Supporters
Red, Elaida a’Roihan, Recruiter.
Red, (unknown).
Power speculation: Recruit on Faction 2 or unaligned Blue will fail. Can be secretly recruited by Faction 1. Can false recruit Faction 1.

Unaligned until recruited:
Red
Blue
Green
Yellow
White
Brown, Diemo (tracker/watcher)
Grey, Matt (double voter)


Why did you think that the black Ajah can be false recruited?
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:55 am UTC

@bessie: I promise this will be the last time I reply to you on this topic but I'm honestly amazed why you can't see my point if you're really looking at every possibility.
bessie wrote:If a redirector redirected you from kalira to anyone else in the game, or a bus driver switched SDK and kalira, and you claimed a result on kalira, they would know you are lying.
If I target kalira with my Cop power, get redirected to SDK and my results pm is worded like 'Your target appears to be X' then I wouldn't know that I've been redirected and would claim my result on kalira. The redirector would suspect that the result really refers to SDK but he shouldn't assume that I'm lying based on just the fact that I reported my result on kalira.

@all: for reasons that should become obvious I wanted to avoid a full-claim entirely but will do so out of necessity if required. I'm a named character BTW.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby mpolo » Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:59 am UTC

I chose Madge's power after N3 upon seeing the reveal, so in my mind it was N3, but in fact it was D4. I have now received a PM from the mod confirming my choice, though he hasn't had time to "flavor it up".
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:33 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Carlington, are you confident that your ability would detect that they are black?

I believe it would based on role PM flavour. I can't guarantee it, of course, but I believe it.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:48 pm UTC

Doing the claim, so people have a chance to ask questions and I have time to answer them.

I'm Teslyn Baradon, indie, Survivor, Roleblocker, achieving a bonus win if Town wins but Siuan and Elaida both die, allowing me to become the 'strong leader of the White Tower'.

@bessie: you and I argued with ahippo on D2 about Doctor/Roleblocker not revealing themselves for essentially the same reason, I hope you realize that.

I blocked ahippo N1, used Cop instead of my ability N2, blocked matt96 N3. I thought matt96 was scum and as noone would normally roleblock/track a proven Double-voter during the night I thought it would be likely that he would perform the factional kill. Were I scum I would have blocked SirGabriel to deny the information.

As soon as it was clear that the lynch on D2 would be between SirGabriel and ahippo I obviously wanted to lynch Elaida. On D3 I really hoped Madge would think along these lines and kill SirGabriel, unfortunately that didn't happen either. So basically now I see no way of achieving a double-win, so I'm forced to reveal myself to have a chance at my main win-con. If you lynch me I lose entirely, if you lynch matt96 then there will be 1 scum remaining and as we won't lynch either Elaida or Siuan there is no reason for me to side with scum now.

I have very little info about flavor apart from what's in my role-pm and what's on the wiki (according to which Teslyn only appears at the start of the 5th book, so might be spoiler for those who haven't read it). I only know that there is a feud between Elaida and myself and that is the reason why I want to get rid of her as well.

Ask away.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:55 pm UTC

EBWOP:

Vote: matt96

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:29 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:You can replicate being a Cop:

How many Black Ajah members were voting for bessie at the end of D1? -> Cop on Gopher of Pern
How many Black Ajah members were voting for ahippo at the end of D1? -> Cop on Carlington
How many Black Ajah members were voting for SirGabriel at the end of D2? -> Cop on bessie (after tomorrow morning's reveal)

I will ask jimbob if these are valid questions, but I would be surprised if he allowed any of them. When I asked about Diemo's wagon, he said he would allow that question but that he would judge similar questions on a case-by-case basis in the future.

Also, it looks like a lot of content has been posted while I was away; can someone give a brief summary of what happened and unofficial votals?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:46 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
Sabrar wrote:You can replicate being a Cop:

How many Black Ajah members were voting for bessie at the end of D1? -> Cop on Gopher of Pern
How many Black Ajah members were voting for ahippo at the end of D1? -> Cop on Carlington
How many Black Ajah members were voting for SirGabriel at the end of D2? -> Cop on bessie (after tomorrow morning's reveal)

I will ask jimbob if these are valid questions, but I would be surprised if he allowed any of them. When I asked about Diemo's wagon, he said he would allow that question but that he would judge similar questions on a case-by-case basis in the future.

I just got a response from jimbob, and none of those are valid questions.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:00 pm UTC

Unofficial votals:

matt96 - 1 (Sabrar)

Not voting: everyone else

Substitute question:
How many actual Red/Yellow/Grey Ajah members are in the game?
I assume you had similar idea when you asked about color-claiming at the beginning of D2 which was finally done due to Gopher of Pern's request.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 12, 2017 11:55 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Why did you think that the black Ajah can be false recruited?
I still think it’s possible that Siuan and Elaida can recruit a Black Ajah and believe they have done so successfully, but the Black Ajah is still Black Ajah. And my original post was on D2; on D3 SirGabriel posted this:
SirGabriel wrote:My role PM says that not all players can be recruited to my faction and that a successful recruit does not necessarily mean the recruited player's win condition changed. So my guess is either cult can recruit anyone (Black Ajah or otherwise) who does not already belong to the other cult, but any Black Ajah who is recruited would keep their Black Ajah win condition and factional kill.
So why did you think the Black Ajah couldn't be false recruited?

Sabrar wrote:If I target kalira with my Cop power, get redirected to SDK and my results pm is worded like 'Your target appears to be X' then I wouldn't know that I've been redirected and would claim my result on kalira. The redirector would suspect that the result really refers to SDK but he shouldn't assume that I'm lying based on just the fact that I reported my result on kalira.
I think we have another misunderstanding. My belief is that if you target kalira and get redirected to SDK, you receive the result “SDK is scum” not “kalira is scum”. But I could be wrong about how this type of role usually works, or the role may function differently depending on the mod’s interpretation of the role.

Sabrar wrote:I blocked ahippo N1, used Cop instead of my ability N2, blocked matt96 N3. I thought matt96 was scum and as noone would normally roleblock/track a proven Double-voter during the night I thought it would be likely that he would perform the factional kill. Were I scum I would have blocked SirGabriel to deny the information.
Why did you try to block the Black Ajah factional kill? As a survivor, don’t you want the game to end as quickly as possible? And the Black Ajah would most likely be aiming for Siuan or Elaida. If your win condition is what you claimed it is, wouldn’t you want that kill to go through?

SirGabriel wrote:Also, it looks like a lot of content has been posted while I was away; can someone give a brief summary of what happened and unofficial votals?

There were a few claims. Here's the latest summary.
Spoiler:
Faction 1: Black Ajah
Black/White, Alviarin Freidhen, JudeMorrigan
Black
Black

Faction 2: Siuan Supporters
No color, Suian Sanche
Blue, Madge
N1 Recruit
N2 recruit


Faction 3: Elaida Supporters
Red, Elaida a’Roihan, SirGabriel
White, ahippo
N1 recruit
N3 recruit

Independent
Red, Teslyn Baradon, Sabrar

Unaligned until recruited:
Brown, Diemo
Yellow, bessie
Green, dimochka
Grey, matt
Grey, Gopher of Pern
Red, Carlington
Accepted/Blue, mpolo

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:22 am UTC

bessie, please stop assuming I say things. I was enquiring as to how you came to your conclusion before information from SirGabriel came to light. I fully believe that the recruiting factions can recruit black Ajah. You seem to have more information than vanilla town. That's all I'm saying (and have been saying).

Ok, here's a question: What are the chances that SirGabriel is lying about there being scum on the lynch? With one supporter of each faction now lynched, they seem to be on an equal footing, so they could have picked those two people as people he hasn't recruited, and he wouldn't care which one got lynched.

Things Carlington has said have pinged me. I believe them to be either a supporter for one side, or black Ajah.

Sabrar wrote:As soon as it was clear that the lynch on D2 would be between SirGabriel and ahippo I obviously wanted to lynch Elaida. On D3 I really hoped Madge would think along these lines and kill SirGabriel, unfortunately that didn't happen either. So basically now I see no way of achieving a double-win, so I'm forced to reveal myself to have a chance at my main win-con. If you lynch me I lose entirely, if you lynch matt96 then there will be 1 scum remaining and as we won't lynch either Elaida or Siuan there is no reason for me to side with scum now.


If we lynch matt, and they are scum, yes it would be silly to side with scum, but as you're claiming to be an independant, I'm not sure we should be ready to trust you. You can win with any side, so we can't rule out you backstabbing us, especially if you can get the leaders lynched or killed.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:58 am UTC

bessie wrote:Why did you try to block the Black Ajah factional kill? As a survivor, don’t you want the game to end as quickly as possible?
a) due to previous experiences in games I'm always afraid of being NK-d,
b) kill could be redirected,
c) I was disheartened to see that you (general you, not specifically you) let matt96 control the lynch and kill Madge who was my best chance at killing Elaida. So I basically gave up on second win-con and with so many confirmed townies thought my chances were better with them.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:50 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I was disheartened to see that you (general you, not specifically you) let matt96 control the lynch
I made my final D3 post approximately 12 hours before deadline. I had a very early appointment and couldn’t post Tuesday morning before I left. And I don’t post at work (I tried to check on the thread but just couldn’t squeeze it in before my lunch time). I have been pushing everyone to not just post, but post with enough time to discuss the content before deadline. We have a week but it seems like a lot always happens in the final hours. I think it’s just the nature of the game. For this game, those final hours happen at a time when I can’t be there.

And as for letting matt control the lynch (which he didn’t really, as it looks like mpolo and dimochka were both around at deadline), I didn’t have a strong not-Black-Ajah read on anyone (except SirGabriel and dimochka and neither was a lynch candidate). And I didn’t disagree with lynching Madge. She was one of my scum picks. If I voted it would have been for you or her. I don't know if it's really a situation where matt controlled the lynch as much as one where there wasn't an objection to Madge.

Gopher of Pern wrote:bessie, please stop assuming I say things. I was enquiring as to how you came to your conclusion before information from SirGabriel came to light. I fully believe that the recruiting factions can recruit black Ajah. You seem to have more information than vanilla town. That's all I'm saying (and have been saying).

I just reread all your posts.
Spoiler:
D1
1. Confirmation
2. Joke vote
3. Questions bessie on setup spec.
4. Reply to bessie.
5. Reply to Sabrar about bessie.
6. Player analysis, votes bessie.

D2
7. Reflections on D1, still suspicious of bessie.
8. Reply to Sabrar about bessie.
9. Town-scum list, vote for ahippo, bessie is second scummiest.
10. Reply to ahippo, replies to Sabrar about bessie and matt.
11. Does not mention bessie; this is a first.
12. Replies to Sabrar, mpolo, Jude.
13. Comment on ahippo’s claim.

D3
14. Reflections on D2, organizing claims.
15. Analysis of “non-confirmed-town”, ending with a vote for surprise, bessie!
16. Reply to Sabrar.
17. Thinking bessie-Sabrar scum team, votes Sabrar.
18. Reply to Sabrar, still thinking bessie-Sabrar scum team.
19. Reply to Sabrar.
20. Reply to bessie.
21. Reply to Sabrar.
22. Votes for matt, mentions possible scum pairs (matt/Sabrar, bessie/Carlington, bessie/matt).
23. Pushing Carlington for info re: bessie.

D4
24. Nothing to claim.
25. Votes matt, mentions bessie has a high chance of being scum.
26. Unvote, asks for color claims.
27. Updated color list.
28. Updated color list.
29. Final color claim list with color theory.
30. Cryptic reply to enquiry as to why bessie has a high chance of being scum.
31. Asks Carlington if he’s confident he can detect Black (Carlington claimed to investigate bessie, SirGabriel, and mpolo). Questions bessie on an earlier setup speculation.
32. Reply to bessie, Sabrar.
You mention me a lot. Why are you so focused on trying to force me into a scum pairing (see #7, 8, 15, 17, 18, 22, 23, 30)?

And I have very little information that has not been publicly posted in this thread, just my role. And that’s not even a secret, because I’ve been investigated and some of that information has been posted. I don’t have an investigative role. No one had given me a message or a gift. And no one has recruited me. I guess I’m too scummy for anyone to want me on their team. I don’t have any more information than an unrecruited vanilla town. I just have a lot of ideas. And I share them. Maybe one is good, or will lead to something better if we discuss it. I’m that annoying “what if” and “why” kid that you want to just shut up already. I try to get people talking because that's the way we're gong to catch scum.

Side comment on bessie’s real life.
Spoiler:
I’m a quality engineer. Much of my day is spent asking what if and doing something called 5-Whys (google if curious).

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:15 pm UTC

The assembled Sisters had been expecting something unusual all afternoon, so when no strange manifestations came for several hours, some of the gathering were actually a little unsettled. One of them spoke up to say that they were prepared to "deal with" another of them, but nobody else did. A decision would have to be made soon.

Votals:

matt96(1): Sabrar

Not voting: everbody else

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Soft deadline at 8pm UTC, Monday 13th February, just under 7 hours from now. Please submit your night actions before deadline, if possible. I am unwell today, so I cannot guarantee that I will process night tonight, but if I do, there will be a grace period until approximately 10pm UTC to change night actions. If I don't, it will be unlikely to get processed until Wednesday night.
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matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby mpolo » Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:16 pm UTC

I got the flavored version of my power PM. It seems that I am still just Accepted, but I figured out how to use Madge's power, with the improvement that I can successfully target someone who had previously been targeted by Madge.

So, now we have five factions, according to Sabrar: unaligned; unaligned but kill off Siuan and Elaida; Siuan's followers; Elaida's followers; the Black Ajah. I don't have time to do numbers on this, but does this mean that everyone has been recruited?
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:31 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I got the flavored version of my power PM. It seems that I am still just Accepted, but I figured out how to use Madge's power, with the improvement that I can successfully target someone who had previously been targeted by Madge.

So, now we have five factions, according to Sabrar: unaligned; unaligned but kill off Siuan and Elaida; Siuan's followers; Elaida's followers; the Black Ajah. I don't have time to do numbers on this, but does this mean that everyone has been recruited?

No. Even if Sabrar is telling the truth and every recruit was successful, we should have one more left who can be recruited but hasn't been recruited yet (either Black or unaligned). And it's certainly possible that a recruit has failed (it could have been blocked, or one faction could have tried to recruit someone who was already in the other faction).

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby mpolo » Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:57 pm UTC

I am really torn. SirGabriel's result makes this a Sabrar or matt decision. Sabrar's claim is plausible, but not necessarily iron-clad. I also worry about his having a "named character" who seems to be pretty much a non-character to where I have read (Certainly, she exists, according to the wiki, but doesn't stick out at all). He claims to be a survivor who prefers to win with the unaligned members of town.

Matt clinched the Madge lynch and has been overly quiet. I still think that a double vote is unusual as a scum power, but the other theory would be that he was Siuan, who would not likely attack her own chance at winning without making some kind of revelation (forcing lynch of a supporter).

Vote: matt96
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:09 pm UTC

Looking back over Sabrar's posts, his actions seem consistent with his claimed win condition. And the one thing that looked scummy to me (his defensiveness against GoP) could be explained by his being a Survivor and thus really not wanting to be mislynched. Also, this comment from early in D1:
Sabrar wrote:This might mean that the setup is something completely different from the usual, for example multiple competing factions trying to get the Amyrlin Seat.

That doesn't seem like an obvious conclusion to reach using only publicly available information, but if, as he claimed, he already knew that Siuan and Elaida were in the game and were competing to be the strong leader, it is an obvious conclusion, without it being too obvious that he had that additional information.

On the other hand, a double vote seems too powerful to be given to scum.

mpolo wrote:Matt clinched the Madge lynch and has been overly quiet. I still think that a double vote is unusual as a scum power, but the other theory would be that he was Siuan, who would not likely attack her own chance at winning without making some kind of revelation (forcing lynch of a supporter).

That's what I thought at first too, but you missed one important detail: Sabrar, Madge, and matt were the only ones with votes on them at the time, and conceivably could hav all been in Siuan's faction at the time. matt could be Siuan, but only if Sabrar is a Siuan supporter.

Tough decision, but I think I will

Vote: Sabrar

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:12 pm UTC

I’ve been pouring over this again looking for well, anything. I found another reverence to the Black Ajah in the flavor that we missed, probably because JudeMorrigan and ahippo were out of the game.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:“It’s Alviarin Sedai, Mother. I was supposed to have instruction with her, but when she didn’t answer her door, I thought I’d best find out was going on, so I went and found Sheriam Sedai. She went into the room, and there was Alviarin lying on the floor. She wasn’t quite dead, I think, but the Mistress said that I should inform you immediately, and give you this. I think it was in her hand, or something.”
The internet tells me Sheriam Bayanar is Blue/Black. I don’t know if this is important yet. I’m wondering if this character is in the game, and if maybe this is actually Sabrar’s role.

I think Sabrar’s claims would also work out if he was Black Ajah, not independent.

Vote: Sabrar

mpolo wrote:Matt clinched the Madge lynch and has been overly quiet. I still think that a double vote is unusual as a scum power, but the other theory would be that he was Siuan, who would not likely attack her own chance at winning without making some kind of revelation (forcing lynch of a supporter).
What makes you think matt is Siuan? This is from Gopher of Pern’s theory that there is only one of each color that is non-Black, and would require GoP to be the “real” Grey.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:21 pm UTC

@bessie: I cannot comment on mod-flavor. I can only ask you to look back and see that my points were always from Red/Roleblocker pov. If you attach so much importance to flavor you should realize that I can't be Blue.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:48 pm UTC

I wasn’t putting that much importance on the flavor at first, but a lot of the revealed information seems to be falling in line with the flavor. And why can’t you be Blue, and why can’t a Blue be Black?

Sabrar wrote:I blocked ahippo N1, used Cop instead of my ability N2, blocked matt96 N3. I thought matt96 was scum and as noone would normally roleblock/track a proven Double-voter during the night I thought it would be likely that he would perform the factional kill. Were I scum I would have blocked SirGabriel to deny the information.
Ok, alternate theory. You’re Black Ajah and your power is that you give out false ter’angreal. N2 you give Madge a ter’angreal because you hope she will kill SirGabriel (and maybe herself if it is booby trapped). You invent a story about copping Madge in case you are seen visiting her. Your story also serves the purpose of convincing Madge the ter’angreal are good and safe to use. N3 you attempt the mafia factional kill and are blocked.

No one has claimed the inventor power yet. So from my point of view, it could be Sabrar, Gopher of Pern, Carlington, or mpolo.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:55 pm UTC

bessie wrote:You invent a story about copping Madge in case you are seen visiting her. Your story also serves the purpose of convincing Madge the ter’angreal are good and safe to use.

1. You yourself noted that power-triplicate was unlikely and both Diemo and ahippo were already dead so I didn't need a cover-story.
2. As already mentioned I would have needed to provide accurate info and I couldn't have had any idea that Madge was in Siuan's faction.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:14 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:2. As already mentioned I would have needed to provide accurate info and I couldn't have had any idea that Madge was in Siuan's faction.

Unless you knew Madge was in Siuan's faction because you were recruited into Siuan's faction N2, and Madge for some reason chose not to call attention to that fact.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:23 pm UTC

I was never recruited in any faction.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:28 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I was never recruited in any faction.

If anyone in Siuan's faction feels like confirming or denying this, feel free.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:57 pm UTC

There was silence for a few minutes, and then one by one the assembled Sisters started to make their voice known on who to remove from the group. There were two choices before them, it seemed.

Votals:

matt96(2): Sabrar, mpolo
Sabrar(2): SirGabriel, bessie

Not voting: Carlington, matt96, Gopher of Pern, dimochka

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch. As per the tied voting rules, if there are no further changes, matt96 will be lynched.

Soft deadline at 8pm UTC, Monday 13th February, just over 1 hour from now. As I am still not feeling well, I will not be processing night tonight. Night will end some time on Wednesday evening.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby dimochka » Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:44 pm UTC

I really think it's more likely that matt's voting power is a townie power as I mentioned before. Also a couple of others reasons why I'm not trusting sabrar's claim (apart from some of the things I mentioned before):
- He says he wins with Town. This could be a wording difference, but I don't believe that there "is" a town. I understand talking about town in general, but when essentially claiming your role this feels off.
- blocking matt N3 doesn't really makes sense given your wincon. I see the explanation but your reply to bessie on D1 re: playing the game vs. winning aligns much better with having people on your side (whereas I just don't see you writing that first paragraph if you really were a survivor). Quoted below.
Sabrar wrote:
Spoiler:
Where I'm coming from: to me actually playing the game is way more important than winning. I would much prefer losing D5 than get killed N1 or N2, even if we win at the end. Therefore the idea that "I'm not afraid of dying because it's better for Town if I die instead of a power-role" would very rarely cross my mind. Objectively it's clear that it's a better outcome but that doesn't mean I have to like it. The "I don't have to be alive to win the game" argument also didn't enter into my thought-process for precisely the same reasons.

Sorry for the late post and sorry if I'm wrong, but if that's the case we'll lynch matt first thing next day.

vote sabrar
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:51 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:(whereas I just don't see you writing that first paragraph if you really were a survivor)
No idea why you would feel that way, I never lie about irl stuff and that includes my motivation and play-style as well.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:23 pm UTC

Vote: matt96
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:25 pm UTC

Would have loved if you were here an hour earlier. :D

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:29 pm UTC

Yeah, the whole night starting right before I wake up in the morning sucks. But it's a soft deadline isn't it? So It's not official until mod comes in?

Not that it matters. You reached 3 first. The tie doesn't help.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:32 pm UTC

That's exactly it. If you're here earlier matt96 reaches 3 first and I survive. Of course you could still claim Siuan and admit that you gave the Cop to me, hoping SirGabriel or bessie will change their minds.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:42 pm UTC

As the sun set, there was no explosion, no strange wind, and no strangely burning piece of paper. The Sister selected plead for more time to present her case, but several of the others were not buying it. The three main accusers linked and weaved strong threads of Air and Spirit to shield and bind the suspect, taking her down to the deep cells for further interrogation and confinement. The others went back to their rooms to consider what to do that night.

Day 4 is now over.

Final votals:

Sabrar(3): SirGabriel, bessie, dimochka
matt96(3): Sabrar, mpolo, Gopher of Pern

Not voting: matt96, Carlington

As per the tied voting rules, Sabrar has been lynched because he was the first to 3 votes, and not all players were voting.

It is now night. If you have not done so already, please submit your night actions as soon as possible. Night will be processed by Wednesday evening, my time. You are free to change night actions until that point.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby mpolo » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:44 pm UTC

Unvote

Vote: Sabrar

The reference to Town is off.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby mpolo » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:44 pm UTC

Sorry. I didn't get ninja notification. Ignore that, please.
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