Diablo Mafia - Day 6 (The End)

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bessie
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby bessie » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:06 pm UTC

My analysis of LaserGuy’s D2 content:

1. Darn.
2. Defends JDU vote to freezeblade. No claims.
3. JDU/cop gameplay question.
4. Questions jimbob on source of N1 information claim.
5. Suspicious of Znirk, speculated on origin of message and how it might fit with claims.
6. Adds to previous post.
7. Replies to Znirk, questions Znirk’s D1 claims. Observation that for every mod confirmed role of which he is aware, the power fits with the flavor. Fishes for jimbob’s power.
8. Reply to Znirk re SirGabriel/doctor. Reply to GoP re focus on Znirk. Reply to GoP re JDU’s cop power, and speculation that it implies multiple killing powers.
9. Prods everyone to claim night actions.

jimbob votes Laserguy, here’s his read.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:LaserGuy immediately is suspicious of the message I received last night, and has discussed pretty much nothing else so far today.
...
Current gut feelings are that LaserGuy might be scum, seeing something they can easily discuss without needing to show thoughts on other players.

10. Updated player reads, complete.
11. Reply to Sabrar re reads/content remark.
12. Reply to jimbob re reads/cult and Znirk question.
13. Reply to jimbob re Znirk/cult.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Of the posts after my claim, only posts 8 and 9 have anything in that isn't directly related to my claim. Post 8 includes a piece of irrelevant explanation (why SirG's night action was revealed), speculation on when to use an ability that is no longer in the game (presumably - backup is possible I suppose), and a comment referring to the PM discussion. Post 9 is a brief call for more results and nothing else.

Disagree with regard to Post 7. LaserGuy’s second reply to Znirk doesn’t have anything to do with your claim, it’s about his D1 name claim/false claim option, and other D1 flavor claims. There is also the interesting observation about the roles/powers.

Post 8, the “irrelevant explanation” was a reply to a comment made by another player on mod intent, made before the mod posted and clarified his intent, so I consider it valid content (as in not a deliberate distraction). The cop power speculation is relevant because of it is the only “evidence” to support a serial killer.

Looking forward to your updated read, since as I stated before, your reason for voting for LaserGuy is no longer valid.

Sabrar wrote:Meanwhile I would appreciate feedback on the possibility of a scenario: Madge is SK/cult leader who received in her role-pm the additional info that no Miller was in the game.
Complete speculation by me, but I really doubt Madge would be directly informed there is no miller in the game. Either she’s either a miller, she inferred there was no miller from something in her role PM, she’s fishing, or she’s scum making a very bold gamble (in no particular order).

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby plytho » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@all: to me there is no such thing as a distraction in a Mafia game because I feel that every post adds something to the discussion and I try to read and react to everything.
However I just come to realize (took me a long time) that not everyone is able to spend as much time on the game. If you think that my focus on the D1 indie claim is somehow taking away time from more important things then I will drop that line of thought and move it to Gojoe after this game is over.

I mentioned some things being distracting (see the quote below). When I say speculation about Znirk and jimbob is distracting I mean that I distract myself with it. They're in the spotlight and I wanted to focus on other players because if I didn't actively do that I would distract myself by only focusing on the spotlight. So as far as I'm concerned: keep posting. I"ll try to keep myself focused on the 'important' things and avoid tunnel vision.

adnapemit wrote:
plytho wrote:I don't really see much difference between putting them on the list with a warning that I didn't look into them yet or leaving them off the list to look at later.

There is no difference in those two things. But what you said for that post was
For the purpose of this list I'm accepting jimbob's and Znirk's claims that Znirk is indie survivor and jimbob is town I know they might not be but for now I wanted to avoid speculation about Znirkbob as it's distracting and takes away focus from everyone else.


I still don't really see what you mean, but that might be because English isn't my first language, perhaps 'accepting' was too strong? Or is it because I called jimbob town instead of likely town?

SirGabriel wrote:Gopher was one of my scum reads D1, and his single post so far D2 hasn't done anything to change my mind.

I count 8 posts by Gopher D2, 3 on page 6 and 5 on page 7. That's a lot of posts to miss, or did you mean to talk about someone else?

Sabrar wrote:Meanwhile I would appreciate feedback on the possibility of a scenario: Madge is SK/cult leader who received in her role-pm the additional info that no Miller was in the game. The reason I'm asking is because the below quote pinged me very hard:
Madge wrote:
Wow, what did I do to deserve that??? Shucks.

I guess that could be a possibility. I'm trying to match that with the night kill count and the fact that JDU's secondary power implies more than one night kill. Possibly scum targeted Madge as "confirmed" town. She was protected and used her night kill on SirG. So the scum kill is blocked and the SK kill is the one kill of the night. But that doesn't necessarily implicate Madge as SK. Is there any consensus on who an SK would usually target D1?
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Carlington » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:03 am UTC

I got curious as to why SirG might have turned up dead, given that he seemed to be thoroughly neutral on everyone's reads lists for the entirety of yesterday. I did a quick Ctrl-F for mentions of SirG through D1, and found that this confirmed my memories - the only dissenting opinion on SirG was that of GoP, who seemed to find SirG slightly scummy. Also of interest is that SirG alone was voting for GoP at the end of D1. All of this is highly speculative, but worth noting now, imo. I think the likelihood of SirG being the victim of a misguided vigshot is very low, meaning that it was the factional kill or else an SK. I don't know which is the more likely - I can see no reason to withhold an NK N1, and I'm provisionally willing to believe that we have NKs plural in the game, based on JDF's flip. So unless we do have some sort of alternating or conditional kill (or more than one doctor/roleblocker), that means the kills collided (unlikely) or one was withheld (why?)

D2 reads incoming, taking notes and compiling thoughts anon.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Carlington » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:08 am UTC

Wait Oh me yarm on reading through properly I see mpolo's posts. My condolences, mpolo. My thoughts with you and yours.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby bessie » Sun Mar 12, 2017 2:15 am UTC

I won’t have time to make a significant post with detailed replies/analysis on Monday. The best I will be able to do is a brief comment or vote change. If you want a reply from me post within the next 24 hours. As a general rule, if you’re posting the bulk of your content within the last 12 hours before deadline (without a RL reason), I’m going to assume you’re doing it on purpose because you’re scum anyway.

Updated reads

adnapemit- I’m still noting her D1 read on Carlington. There was a late D1 post that I hadn’t analyzed yet, where she has a little back and forth with jimbob about cult, and speculates that jimbob might be a scum or cult leader. D2 starts right in on jimbob and jimbob/Znirk night conversation claims. More analysis and another ordered list. :)

Carlington- Almost all his D1 content was posted after my final D1 post, so I haven’t analyzed any of it yet.
Carlington wrote:Still phone posting for now just to get something out there.
Interesting comment on D1, made about 10 hours before deadline. You didn’t post the previous 4 days. On D2, you made two brief posts on the first RL day and nothing since (prepost edit, I see a promise that content is forthcoming). My guess based on the quantity/timing of your posts is that you’re only posting what you need to post to avoid the lynch.

Regarding the content: Meh. His reads list would have been OK if made sooner, but coming so late in the day, it just echoes a lot of what others already said (except his read on Madge).
Carlington wrote:I got curious as to why SirG might have turned up dead, given that he seemed to be thoroughly neutral on everyone's reads lists for the entirety of yesterday. I did a quick Ctrl-F for mentions of SirG through D1, and found that this confirmed my memories - the only dissenting opinion on SirG was that of GoP, who seemed to find SirG slightly scummy.
Not true. You found him townie, not neutral. So Carlington, if a neutral read is not a good NK candidate, who do you think is the most likely candidate for a scum kill? Someone that is generally perceived as townie, or as scummy? Why?

freezeblade- I understand his vote for Sabrar but I don’t think he presented a strong enough case to justify the vote (edit: he expanded on his read later). Believes the jimbob/Znirk conversation claim. Doesn’t talk about anyone else. How about some player reads, or at the very least an ordered town-scum list? freezeblade, I’m going to label you a lurker until I’ve seen you state each player’s name in at least one post.

Gopher of Pern- First to link JDU’s role with multiple killing powers. His D2 content is strikingly similar to his D1 content in that most of it is verbal sparring with Sabrar. Reads? Ordered town-scum list? Anything else?

jimbobmacdoodle- D2 claims a N1 conversation with Znirk which confirms Znirk is Red Vex/survivor,and that he redirected Znirk to Sabrar. I have no solid reason to doubt this claim, as no contradicting evidence has been presented. But it’s still possible Znirk recruited (cult, lover) jimbob, which also does not contradict any claims (except Znirk’s tracker target claim and jimbob’s redirect claim).

Interesting comment here:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm willing to let LaserGuy and Znirk pass on their votes for a townie, the former because of preventing no lynch and the latter because of self-defence. I'll need to look at the others bit more when I have more time.
You supposedly confirmed him as an indie/survivor. You don’t need another excuse to “let him pass” on your vote analysis, do you?

LaserGuy- Already read him once today. I’ll come back to him later after I think about it a while.

Madge- Not a lot of content, but offers opinions on more players than freezeblade does. Madge, how about some more content before deadline?

mpolo- Needs to forget about this game and devote his energy to things that are important. Based on what I have seen from him I feel confident in labeling him town.

plytho- Solid content, I’m having trouble finding anything to pick apart. Looks at details for his reads, like me. I might need to come back to him later.
plytho wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:Gopher was one of my scum reads D1, and his single post so far D2 hasn't done anything to change my mind.

I count 8 posts by Gopher D2, 3 on page 6 and 5 on page 7. That's a lot of posts to miss, or did you mean to talk about someone else?
Good catch. I just sorted by author and some of Gopher’s D2 posts have the D1 title on them (must have something to do with where you are when you hit reply). SirGabriel needs to provide an updated read of Gopher.

Sabrar- Was the first on D1 to suggest the possibility that Znirk was a survivor. I already gave my opinion on the D1 voting. His content seems a little aggressive today. I’m going to come back to him later.

SirGabriel/ahippo - Claimed Griswold. I’ve already analyzed all ahippo’s D1 content. Needs to update his read on Gopher of Pern (see my section on plytho above). I like his analysis of jimbob/Znirk.

Znirk- See my analysis of jimbobmacdoodle. Has a good amount of content, but I’m having trouble analyzing his reads because I know he’s not town. I’ll work on it and come back to him.


More in a few hours. I want to give Carlington an opportunity to make that spectacular insightful content-filled post I know he is working on.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Carlington » Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:00 am UTC

An addendum to my post a couple of posts up: SirG was preparing a healing salve for Madge, but we have no idea whether it was used or not. I don't think we ought to assume Madge was protected from a kill last night.

Also, yes bessie, I am working on a biggun. Expect more little posts like this with sporadic thoughts as I either happen across things that I feel deserve more pointed address or else need to let my brain rest for a minute from poring the thread. To answer your question, my philosophy on playing as any faction is that you should aim to be "neutral" on as many lists as possible - this is why I'm confused about SirG's kill. My basis is that the townier you look, the more likely you are to draw the NK. If you're town, this is bad because town loses a player. If you're scum, this is bad because the longer it goes on the more players ask questions about how you've avoided the NK while looking so towny. If you're indie, both. Similarly, town appearing scummy is bad for obvious reasons, as is scum appearing scummy. In fact, I can't think of any role where you'd want to appear deliberately scummy - even Jester acting deliberately scummy is too obvious and thus poor play. As for NK targets, SK needs to try not to hit too many scum, otherwise when the game doesn't end they are a lone wolf against town. Scum, however, probably wants to vary their targets depending on how they all are being read currently - if they're being picked up as scum, they want to target folks from neutral and town ends of people lists so as to avoid narrowing the field of lynch candidates to themselves. If they're broadly regarded as towny, kill off the scummy end of the list and leave town with no scum reads to vote for.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Carlington » Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:44 am UTC

LaserGuy: reaction post. provided a decent reason for the vote-switch at end of D1. Confused by JDF's role. jimbob/Znirk claim leads to more suspicion of Znirk (but not jimbob?). Suspicion on Znirk builds. "at least two probably more kills"? Seems to later suspect Znirk and jimbob of being cultbuddies, which I think is a bit much.

bessie: Thinks Sabrar is being a little dramatic about receving one vote. Also seems to think that Znirk and jimbob being cultbuddies is a possibility. Also thinks jimbob's claim to have targeted Znirk is a little fishy, and elucidates the difference between miller claim and indie claim. Doesn't think much is to be gained by analysis of the votals. Makes more clear that she suspects a link between Znirk and jimbob, although isn't sure what - seems to be less suspicious of cult. Asks about jimbob's vote on LaserGuy. Really wants me to post. (Okay, sorry!). Provides, most recently, a pretty thorough read on LaserGuy.

freezeblade: immediate votal-based FoS. Thinks Sabrar was buddying Znirk and asking for a switch to save a scummate. Claims he would feel the same about JDU, given the same play. Thinks S and Z are telling truth about their convo. Explains the difference between miller and indie claim. Claims to dislike D1 claims. Very solidly reads Sabrar as scum.

plytho: Went back to D1 for this interesting slip -
plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I find it interesting that Znirk hasn't changed his vote yet. This might be simply an oversight, but there are 2 players currently with 2 votes apiece, which moving his vote to would make viable alternative lynch candidates (it would only take one person switching from Znirk to Gopher or JustDance to swing the lynch around combined with Znirk's vote).


This is a great point. It makes Znirk look even more like a jester.

After Carlington's vote it doesn't work anymore but I could see myself switching to JustDanceUnlimited. In fact, I'll do it now. I'll be around at deadline to avoid mislynch.
Emphasis mine. Defends his position on JDU's wagon. Asks about Znirk's target. Doesn't se Sabrar "convincing everyone", just breaking the tie. Recaps early D2 content, but asks questions and seems genuine in trying to get info. Reads list is focused on who is focused on jimbob/Znirk. Spends a few more posts dissecting it. Finally, in most recentt post, comments on something else.

Znirk: Doubled down on the Survivor thing at the end of D1, given the play about "I have to vote because I have to play to my wincon". I notice this at the start of D2:
Znirk wrote:
Wow. So we lynched the cop, and scum managed to whack the doc? All I hope now is that Dimochka's end-of-day comment about townsfolk hoping to remain mentally intact isn't a pointer to recruiter-scum.
Why? If town ends up in a worse position the game ends sooner and you win. Isn't that what you want as survivor? Confirms jimbob's PM claim. This whole deal smells funky to me, but I don't have the nous to make head or tail of it. Also, the later bit about "I said I was out for revenge but I meant that I showed up late and now I just wanna go home" smacks of post-hoc blather to me. Seems to want to promote the idea that Madge was NK target and saved by SirG, for whatever reason. Thinks the jimbob/him thing was caused by being jimbob's target and some hidden role aspect.

mpolo: Nothing to claim from N2, and then very reasonably left the game. I'll come back and do a D1 read, but this is lower priority for me right now, as I feel a lynch would be a bit of a dick move.

jimbob: Main thing is the interaction with Znirk. What incentive do Znirk and jimbob have to corroborate one anothers' stories? Anything more than just not wanting to look like liars? Claims not roleblocker, focus on giving info about Znirkgate. Seems legit and it's good for town to have this info in the open, so I'm happy so far. Claims redirector + ?. Thinks Madge was benefactor of a doc save. Provides some light reads and analysis, asks some decent questions. Heavy suspicion of LaserGuy.

Sabrar: Scattershot replies and thoughts - seems frustrated and thus reacts negatively to being voted. Seems very frustrated with GoP. Moves on to spending effort on trying to figure out the jimbob/Znirk affair, and then speculative suspicion of Madge as SK/cult leader based on one throwaway line. I guess I've seen scum nailed by as much before, though...

GoP: Wants to gain more from vote analysis but seems to be stymied by number of people on "easy" lynches. I don't believe I agree with Sabrar's assessment that GoP is a jester - he doesn't look like he wants to be lynched. I don't like his lack of concern about lying town. Claims to dislike claims in general unless strictly necessary, and has a bit of back-and-forth with Sabrar that boils down to different usage of the word 'scum'

Madge: Seems to think Sabrar vs GoP is town vs town? Doesn't believe scum!Sabrar would buddy Znirk if they were scummates. Likes plytho's post, and hints at hidden info which would shed light on jimbob/Znirk. Only one real post in this game day (pot, meet kettle)

nu!SirG: Highly suspicious of Znirkbob. No N1 results. Scum pick: Gopher, Sabrar. Suspects cult!jimbork (I am enjoying myself coming up with new names, thank you, and this is my favourite to date).

adnapemit: Very little content - only real post is to question jimbork. (Yep, sticking with this).

As for my thoughts, here's some points of interest:

I don't believe cult!jimbork, but I also don't think jimbork confirming one another necessarily exonerates either one of them. In particular, despite jimbob's confirmation, Znirk still makes no sense to me as Survivor. That said, I can see no reason for jimbob of any alignment to lie to protect Znirk, which makes me circle back around to co-aligned cult!jimbork.

Sabrar seems a little all over the place, and it could be frustration but it could be just throwing things around to find a viable lynch to push. I'm not sure I like the look of him currently.

GoP has said things that I generally do not associate with towny play, but all the same he seems to be playing in a reasonable towny fashion. I guess I can buy that he just has a playstyle which isn't common around here. Still, I'm of two minds.

Madge is almost certainly truly a miller, which suggests either some NK shenanigans or old!SirG truthfully saving Madge.

plytho stands out as town to me, despite that aforementioned slip. I'm inclined to believe it was an honest mistake, although I suppose that's subject to future information, as with all things.

On the whole, my logic currently is running as follows:
- We can gain a bunch of info about jimbob and Znirk by lynching either one of them.
- Znirk is confirmed to not be town
- While lynching indies isn't lynching scum, it doesn't cost us nearly as much as a mislynch, and in exchange we can potentially confirm a member of town, or possibly even unveil a cult and nip it in the bud early.

Thus, Vote: Znirk
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:58 am UTC

bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:Gopher was one of my scum reads D1, and his single post so far D2 hasn't done anything to change my mind.

I count 8 posts by Gopher D2, 3 on page 6 and 5 on page 7. That's a lot of posts to miss, or did you mean to talk about someone else?
Good catch. I just sorted by author and some of Gopher’s D2 posts have the D1 title on them (must have something to do with where you are when you hit reply). SirGabriel needs to provide an updated read of Gopher.

Yeah, I just sorted by author, then looked through the posts with D2 in the title. I'll post an updated read tomorrow.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 12, 2017 5:52 am UTC

Carlington wrote:I don't think we ought to assume Madge was protected from a kill last night.
The mod actually said (in bold) that SirGabriel targeted Madge N1. Why do you doubt it?

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:15 am UTC

@Carlington: if you went to all the trouble to provide complete read summaries for each player, why do you state your reads on only a couple of them? What info does the rest of your content give to us? I would assume that by the time you read through all of D2 and wrote down those summaries you would have formed an opinion on everyone.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Carlington » Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:47 am UTC

The mod also said in bold that we shouldn't take that as saying anything about the execution/failure of the action. Hence, I doubt the successful execution of the action.

Also, I only provided reads on people I had things to say about. The rest of the information there is given as a reference for my thoughts at this time, but I didn't see the sense in listing off a whole bunch of "neutral/slightly town" "neutral/slightly scum" when they won't have any bearing anyway.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:39 am UTC

Sorry, busy weekend. Catching up now.

Carlington, given that Madge is alive, isn't your point moot? Whether it worked or not, we know that Madge was targeted by SirGabriel the night he died.

SirGabriel, probably because you missed my posts, but you still haven't said why I'm scummy.

bessie, you will find reads in my posts. I don't often put up huge lists, because it's very time consuming. If I don't mention anything, it's because I don't regard it as particularly scummy or townie, therefore of less relevance.

Gotta go right now, will post more in a bit.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:17 am UTC

@Carlington: I might be misunderstanding you, please clarify. Do you think that SirGabriel's action itself was not successful (e.g. he was roleblocked), or that his action did not have any impact on the results (i.e. no one tried to kill Madge)?

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:19 am UTC

Regarding the Sabrar / myself interaction: I find a difference between a few quick fire posts, and people coming back time and again to the same issue. Sabrar and I were constantly online for about an hour or two, hence us constantly posting. It's not like anyone else was posting between us. Whereas the Znirk / jimbob issue has continued over several days of content, even when other things have come up. And yes, some of it was just misunderstanding of game terms. It was never meant to be a distraction.

If I had something to report about last night, I would have said so.

As for reads:

Sabrar: Still can't tell if my scummy tell on him is just differences in our play style or not. Still on the scummy side, but less so than before.
Laserguy: Seems to be pushing a cult theory. I'm not convinced myself, as I find cults unlikely. Otherwise ok.
Jimbob: Like the secondary wincon. Not entirely sure about their claim, and how they went about it. We were probably on our way to putting the whole Znirk thing behind us. No one else has claimed to have sent the message, so I am inclined to think that it is a scum power intended to produce some WINE. Thus, I'm not ready to lynch either just yet.
Freezeblade: Has been off and on with content, but who am I to throw stones. I did think their day1 content was very light, but their day 2 is better.
Znirk: See Jimbob
ahippo / SirGabriel: I can understand why they are going after Znirk, even if I disagree. Dislike the early claim, screams to me of trying to act too towny. Basically, I find day 1 actions scummy, day 2 actions neutral. Probably on the slightly scummy side overall.
plytho: Seems alright. A bit tunnelly on Znirk/jimbob, but not overly so.
adnapemit: posts infrequently, but has a lot in there. I don't agree with their reads, but they seem to be backed up well.
Madge: Has provided very little. If it wasn't for the fact that I very much doubt Madge would falseclaim miller early, they'd be near the top of the scum list.
mpolo: Be with your family. This is just a game.
Carlington: Posting more, which is good. Still towards the end of the day though, but at least a vote was made.
bessie: Seems to be the person to get people posting. Alright reads so far.

Carlington: I'm not sure I agree on your theory about the NK. Yes, scum would like to go for confirmed townies, but aside from that, it seems like you are spreading a bit of WINE around about the NK.

Honestly, this days content hasn't really given me any scummy reads on anyone. Analysing the lynch is practically useless, since it was on a person who didn't even post. I don't think lynching Znirk will help us, except for the fact of clearing things up. Similarly with jimbob, except jimbob might be town. Carlington looks a bit better, so does Sabrar and freezeblade, 3 of my bigger reads from day 1.

Vote: Sabrar

Still the scummiest of my reads.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Znirk » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:44 pm UTC

Let's get reactive:

SirGabriel wrote:But right now the biggest issue I see is the jimbob/Znirk interaction. Why would a survivor have a falseclaim? And if Znirk was given Rogue as a falseclaim, why would he appear as Red Vex rather than Rogue in the conversation the mod supposedly messaged Znirk and jimbob about? If that post was sent as Znirk claimed, why did jimbob give such a vague description when he first mentioned the conversation? Why would Red Vex care so much about surviving if the only reason she came back to life in the first place was revenge on someone who turned out to already be dead? And if Znirk and jimbob both received the mod PM they claimed, why did it immediately convince both of them that the other one was town/survivor?
A lot of things here just don't add up. But them being a scum team from the beginning also seems unlikely given jimbob's behavior D1, and jimbob as cult leader who recruited Znirk also seems unlikely, so I'm guessing Znirk is the cult leader who recruited jimbob. Which means, of the two, Znirk is probably the better lynch candidate, since the cult might not be able to recruit if its leader is dead.

I'll try to run through your question and answer from my understanding of the matter:

- Survivor per se doesn't need a false claim. But since dimochka wrote the indie as not just any human who doesn't give a shit about the local comminity, but an undead one who was resurrected through a demonic pact, he added the false claim to give a more attentive or flavour-conscious player the option of not associating themselves with what apparently turns out to be a clearly demon-allied antagonist in the source.

- Why would I appear as Rogue, who I never claimed to be? I introduced myself as Red Vex, and once mentioned that Rogue was my twin sister, that's all. For the narrator to refer to me as Rogue would be frankly idiotic. (Or are you assuming that Dimochka wrote out all possible PMs ahead of time? But he couldn't have known that by the time this effect triggered, I would have claimed either name yet.)

- I don't know what you're getting at with jimbob's "vague description" of the pm. He summarised the contents and did it accurately, probably fairly quickly after first reading it himself, and without violating the No Quoting PMs rule. What's your specific problem with his post? Afterthought: if it's "why didn't Jimbob say that he is confirmed non-scum", then that may be because that information is expressed clearly, but not obviously. Again: the actual statement, in my paraphrase, is that Jimbob can't sleep because he knows that the townsfolk are under threat from demons and he feels threatened by this state of affairs. In Dimochka's phrasing, you first have to see that it does make a statement about Jimbob; but once you do in my opinion the statement is clear. I don't know whether Jimbobmacdoodle noticed that part before I mentioned it in-thread, but it feels like something I might have read past if it was a statement about myself because it states, obliquely, a fact (not-scum) that would already be known to the person the fact is about.

- The question about why Red Vex is survivor is probably not answerable by anyone before the game ends and we can ask Dimochka (i.e. the impression I'm getting is that even the revenge story itself is quite an expansion on available canonical flavour). My take is that she no longer feels fully human because she's technically dead, but also doesn't feel she owes anything to the demons, who could presumably have told her that the reason for her entering into a pact had already disappeared. It seems reasonable that this is how you patch together an independent in a very binary us-or-them flavoured world.

- At the very real risk of repeating both myself and Jimbob: If we both believed the information in the PM, it's because it is given as a narrator's description of facts, rather than as some sort of message coming from a person within the fiction who might be lying. Either the information is true, or the mod himself is lying to us.

Jimbob and I are not a cult; unless Jimbob has been another indie all along we're not even co-aligned. There's an obvious OMGUS element to this, but I don't like that you propose to focus on a cult you don't even know exists, and leave the known threat of scum alone for the day.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:25 pm UTC

Znirk wrote:Why would I appear as Rogue, who I never claimed to be? I introduced myself as Red Vex, and once mentioned that Rogue was my twin sister, that's all. For the narrator to refer to me as Rogue would be frankly idiotic. (Or are you assuming that Dimochka wrote out all possible PMs ahead of time? But he couldn't have known that by the time this effect triggered, I would have claimed either name yet.)

Can you think of any case in past games where something a player has claimed in thread directly affected the result of an investigation or similar power? I can't. So either dimochka made a very odd (and, in my opinion, bad) move as a mod by having your reveal power* affected by whether or not you utilized your falseclaim, or your reveal power would have revealed you as Red Vex even if you had utilized your falseclaim and claimed to be Rogue (which would be a very odd way for two elements of your role to interact), or you're lying. I can't see dimochka making either of those mistakes, but I can easily see a cult leader backing himself into a corner and being forced to imply that it was a mod mistake (that also wouldn't be the first time you've blamed inconsistencies in your claims on the mod).

*I'm assuming that, if you're telling the truth, the reveal power is connected to your role rather than jimbob's. If I'm mistaken about that part, it doesn't really change anything.

Znirk wrote:I don't know what you're getting at with jimbob's "vague description" of the pm. He summarised the contents and did it accurately, probably fairly quickly after first reading it himself, and without violating the No Quoting PMs rule. What's your specific problem with his post?

When jimbob first mentioned it, he merely said he had a conversation which convinced him Red Vex was a Survivor. He left out the parts about the conversation being with you and it being revealed in a PM that was sent to both of you, which, if true, are important information. The most likely explanation I can see is that the two of you are lying but didn't have the opportunity to chat and so couldn't coordinate your lie, so he intentionally kept it vague and then was forced to agree with you when you made up additional details.

Znirk wrote:At the very real risk of repeating both myself and Jimbob: If we both believed the information in the PM, it's because it is given as a narrator's description of facts, rather than as some sort of message coming from a person within the fiction who might be lying. Either the information is true, or the mod himself is lying to us.

As far as I can tell, you are claiming that the mod told you that you and jimbob had a conversation and that that conversation convinced you that he's town and convinced him that you're Survivor. All of which could be true if one of you were scum who could lie convincingly (Godfather perhaps?), so unless I'm missing something, the PM you claim to have received shouldn't have given either of you certainty that the other was town/survivor.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby adnapemit » Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:30 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@adnapemit (and anybody else that this applies to) - why are you so convinced that the info Znirk and I have claimed to receive is false?

I'm probably only about 60% convinced that the info you claim to have received is false, what I am finding suspicious is how easily you accepted it for true and confirming that Znirk isn't a threat.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I got an unexpected piece of information last night, which confirms that Znirk is Red Vex and is a Survivor. I don't know why I got the info, but I'd guess that it's because I targeted him last night.

At least I'm fairly confident now that he isn't a direct threat and there are better targets for a vote, hopefully.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: The way it's all phrased etc suggests it wasn't some kind of possible misinformation (e.g. It's not an anonymous message) and I'm fairly confident it wasn't something Znirk targeted me with.

I see why you thought that it's unlikely Znirk sent it because of your use of redirection but if your ability was blocked then he could still have targeted you.


Additional look at Znirk
D1:
-claimed he was indie(first post)
Znirk wrote:- pre-post edit: Carlington, I'm claiming survivor because I am. Not much I can do about that, short of lying. Actually, and this is going to be ultra-winey, but: I claimed survivor after several players had said they wouldn't buy such a claim. Why do that, other than because it's true?
Ultra-winey doesn't seem to describe this enough.
D2
-Confused his own ability (watcher/tracker)
Znirk wrote:Edit: Tracker, not watcher. I keep getting those two mixed up.

Since his ability was "blocked" we do not have anything that could be used to prove he has this ability.
Znirk wrote:I can also confirm that it doesn't seem to be possible that this is false information fed by either of ourselves or any third party. The information is given in the form the mod/narrator stating facts, not in direct quotes from the conversation (which might be character lies), nor in potentially false messages delivered to the characters (as opposed to a PM delivered to the players).

I found the was he describe this, almost as if he was looking at it from an outside perspective. Rather than saying "this is true because it matches" he is instead describing why it isn't possible that it is false. His next paragraph starts off with:
One useful effect of this "conversation at night" message is that it not only confirms to Jimbob that I'm a survivor: it also explicitly tells me that Jimbob is not scum

Where he does state "confirms to Jimbob" and then the focus switches to Jimbob being town.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Znirk » Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:15 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
Znirk wrote:Why would I appear as Rogue, who I never claimed to be? I introduced myself as Red Vex, and once mentioned that Rogue was my twin sister, that's all. For the narrator to refer to me as Rogue would be frankly idiotic. (Or are you assuming that Dimochka wrote out all possible PMs ahead of time? But he couldn't have known that by the time this effect triggered, I would have claimed either name yet.)

Can you think of any case in past games where something a player has claimed in thread directly affected the result of an investigation or similar power? I can't. So either dimochka made a very odd (and, in my opinion, bad) move as a mod by having your reveal power* affected by whether or not you utilized your falseclaim, or your reveal power would have revealed you as Red Vex even if you had utilized your falseclaim and claimed to be Rogue (which would be a very odd way for two elements of your role to interact), or you're lying. I can't see dimochka making either of those mistakes, but I can easily see a cult leader backing himself into a corner and being forced to imply that it was a mod mistake (that also wouldn't be the first time you've blamed inconsistencies in your claims on the mod).

You're riding the line between between being mistaken and outright lying at the end there. The closest I've come to what you claim to see is when, early on day 2, after drawing a lot of attention to myself on D1 and after revealing the night interaction with jimbob, I said I "blamed" Dimochka for being in the spotlight again. As for my blaming inconsistencies in my claims on the mod: I'm not aware of any inconsistencies, and would welcome players pointing out anything they're dubious about.

As for the "reveal power": In the narration, Jimbob's character meets a person he's met at least the day before. Obviously that part of the message is going to use the name his character already knows. And as for the "reveal" itself: Where are you getting the idea that, had I used the offered false claim, the reveal would not have given my name as Red Vex? I think it's you who is assuming mod incompetence here.

SirGabriel wrote:
Znirk wrote:I don't know what you're getting at with jimbob's "vague description" of the pm. He summarised the contents and did it accurately, probably fairly quickly after first reading it himself, and without violating the No Quoting PMs rule. What's your specific problem with his post?

When jimbob first mentioned it, he merely said he had a conversation which convinced him Red Vex was a Survivor. He left out the parts about the conversation being with you and it being revealed in a PM that was sent to both of you, which, if true, are important information.

True, and maybe Jimbob wants to weigh in on this. My interpretation is that he either simply wanted to be brief, and thus skipped the conversation being with rather than just about me, or that he wanted to avoid being seen as too close to someone who almost got lynched the evening before. As for the PM being sent to both of us, I would put not noticing that as the default. I for one certainly didn't look at the recipients list until after I'd read Jimbob's post in the thread and I wanted to verify whether there was a chance that our PMs might be subtly different.

SirGabriel wrote:As far as I can tell, you are claiming that the mod told you that you and jimbob had a conversation and that that conversation convinced you that he's town and convinced him that you're Survivor.

Wrong. The information that I'm Red Vex and a Survivor is in bold mod text. The information from which I draw that Jimbob is not-scum (I never claimed to be sure he's town) is, as I'm trying to tell you for the third time now, not within the conversation itself, but in the surrounding narration about Jimbob having an insomnia attack out of concern for town.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:47 pm UTC

@Znirk: sorry if you have to explain it multiple times, but I want to get it absolutely clear. Is the below summary correct?
- your character name and role are outright stated by the mod,
- however jimbob's alignment is only hinted at in flavor-text.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby dimochka » Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:52 pm UTC

Current Votals:
Sabrar - 2 (Freezeblade, Gopher of Pern)
LaserGuy - 1 (Jimbobmacdoodle)
Carlington - 1 (bessie)
Znirk - 1 (SirGabriel)

Not Voting: Sabrar, LaserGuy, Znirk, plytho, adnapemit, Madge, mpolo, Carlington

13 people alive, 7 to lynch.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:22 pm UTC

@dimochka: Carlington has also voted Znirk, Ihere.

I will try to post some more, but I'm not sure that I'll have much time to fully respond to everything that's been posted before the deadline. I'll place my vote in case I don't get back in time.

Vote Znirk.

None of my scum reads are really strong at the moment, and there is definitely something very shady going with him. I'd rather get rid of him than risk another mislynch.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Mar 12, 2017 5:36 pm UTC

Znirk wrote:You're riding the line between between being mistaken and outright lying at the end there. The closest I've come to what you claim to see is when, early on day 2, after drawing a lot of attention to myself on D1 and after revealing the night interaction with jimbob, I said I "blamed" Dimochka for being in the spotlight again. As for my blaming inconsistencies in my claims on the mod: I'm not aware of any inconsistencies, and would welcome players pointing out anything they're dubious about.

See the following quotes:
Znirk wrote:I don't think survivor does need a false claim (note how it didn't occur to me to use one). Maybe Dimochka does, but what he actually says is that Red Vex might have use for one.
Znirk wrote:Or, if you're trying to get at the other inconsistency: Yes, the mod PM from last night does talk about my wanting to get out of town "in a living state"*. Presumably, then, undead and not yet re-killed is alive enough for colloquial purposes.
Znirk wrote:The question about why Red Vex is survivor is probably not answerable by anyone before the game ends and we can ask Dimochka

Perhaps oddities would be a better word than inconsistencies, but you've blamed the mod for them several times.


Znirk wrote:The information that I'm Red Vex and a Survivor is in bold mod text.

Unless I'm mistaken, this is the first time either of you have explicitly claimed that.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:34 pm UTC

Currently reevaluating the flavor in my role-pm, I blame jimbob for what he did during setup in WoT2.

Re jimbob/Znirk (assuming I get positive confirmation regarding my earlier question): due to the asymmetrical nature of the revealed info I no longer think that it was caused by a third player. Most likely hidden aspect of Znirk if really Survivor, or both are lying. Would be extremely helpful if they could point out a similar ability in a previous game on this forum (maybe the mod is willing to reply to this query if it comes from the player affected?).

adnapemit: read-list contains too much post-summary and too little own thoughts for my taste. Seems to me like she attacks mostly Znirk's wording instead of his content (although sometimes it's hard to see the difference). I think she misunderstood plytho's comment about accepting the jimbob/Znirk claim and I share plytho's confusion about why that's still an issue. On the scummier side.

bessie: she seems sure about her ideas being correct (too sure in my opinion), this is consistent with her most recent games (Secret Santa, WoT2) where she was Town. Her defense of LaserGuy looks interesting, though it could be a result because she's so sure about jimbob being scum that she wants to pick apart his reads. Has better posts than in WoT1 where I noticed that she lacked real content. Overall slightly townie.

Carlington: When I skimmed Carlington's previous games to get a feel of him I noticed that he has a ton of history for not posting for days followed by a short period of active participation. During these he usually posted a lot more content as Town than as scum so I had a slight town-read on him coming into the analysis purely because of meta-reasons.
His content is mostly ok (though nothing stands out as particularly townie), however I don't understand a couple of his comments.
Carlington wrote:So unless we do have some sort of alternating or conditional kill (or more than one doctor/roleblocker), that means the kills collided (unlikely) or one was withheld (why?)
Dismisses successful roleblock or doctor as an explanation, without giving reason. Later he lists that as a possibility. Still later he goes back to stating he doesn't think SirGabriel's action was successful. What gives?
Carlington wrote:My basis is that the townier you look, the more likely you are to draw the NK. If you're town, this is bad because town loses a player.
Scum kills someone every night, most likely Town. How is this any different? Plus if you're townie enough Doctor might protect you or scum might not kill you because they think s/he will. Plus if you're townie you won't get lynched. I just don't understand your argument here.
Carlington wrote:Also, I only provided reads on people I had things to say about. The rest of the information there is given as a reference for my thoughts at this time, but I didn't see the
sense in listing off a whole bunch of "neutral/slightly town" "neutral/slightly scum" when they won't have any bearing anyway.
The reason we prod players for complete read-lists or town-to-scum orders is because we want to analyze the connections when scum flips. Just saying that "they're neutral" without explanation is not helpful.
Overall (mainly because of that last point) he still looks to me as lurking, therefore slightly scummy.

freezeblade: the one thing I can't get over with about his vote on me is him finding my tie-breaking vote on JDU scummy. He seems to have disappeared again for the weekend, hopefully with the new deadline he will be able to provide a complete read-list as his content today was focused on very few people. Scummy for now (might be OMGUS bias).

Gopher of Pern: advocates lying as town if he feels it helps him. This is something we will probably never agree on, however also could explain why I'm getting scummy vibes from him every game. Never really answers why he thinks more than 2 NK is likely (skirted the question by only replying to Carlington who misphrased it slightly). He was the player with the best reason to kill SirGabriel. Still looking scummy to me.

jimbobmacdoodle: I have issues with his alignment being only hinted at in the flavor. Abilities should not work like that (except in a very bastard game) as results should be clear-cut. Also the mod specifically said that flavor should not be indicative. Actually, looking at it from this side it is possible that it was purposefully caused by scum!jimbob's ability. He understandably spends some time defending himseld, howewer his content today lacks the usual analysis that I would expect from him.
Due to the reported nature of the pm I'm leaning towards it being caused by scum!jimbob or a complete lie altogether. Scummy.

Have to take a break, other half later.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:22 pm UTC

So, I ended up getting back today from church far later than expected, and I'm now rather worn out, so this reads list will of necessity be rather less thought out than before. Sorry. As before I'll try to respond to specific points in a separate post.

Notes:
Spoiler:
adnapemit - Nothing to claim from N1. Why am I confident in my info on Znirk? Thinks I might have been recruited by Znirk. Suggests other options. Player analysis. Brief comments on all players and ordered reads list. Finds plytho's accepting mine and Znirk's claims for the reads list odd. Madge would look bad if not for miller claim. Finds my acceptance of truth from Znirk suspicious. Looks at Znirk in depth.

bessie - Calls Sabrar's concern about flipping premature. Suggests Znirk recruited me as a possible explanation. FoSses everyone buying my claim without question. Responds to indie vs miller D1 claim. Thinks no useful information from D1 lynch wagon, but goes on to analyse it partially anyway. Suggests Znirk and I might be new lovers not cult. Calls my vote on LaserGuy reaching. Asks for updated thoughts. Votes Carlington for lurking. Explores LaserGuy's posts and compares with my own comments. Thinks Madge would not be informed of lack of miller. Reads list. Lots of prodding of various players in this. Promises more content.

Carlington - Nothing to claim. Promises less lurking. Misses JDU's second ability and so is confused by Gopher's statement on number of kills. States that he claimed there are likely 2 NKs. Voted for Znirk because of his claim. Gopher was only person finding SirG scummy. Assumes multiple kills now. Kills were withheld or collided, probably. Adds that we should not assume Madge was protected from kill. Discusses philosophy of how to play and scumminess level. Reads list. Thinks Znirk and I being cult buddies bit much in read of LaserGuy, but swings around and ends up voting Znirk.
adnapemit: 5 posts. First off, I find it odd that she puts me as scummier than Znirk. Znirk and I are clearly linked, that's true, but since her opinion in other posts seems to be that the information is false, as opposed to me being recruited, then surely there's a good possibility that I am deceived townie and that Znirk is scum? Having LaserGuy as third scummiest after us is also strange, given that the only thing that she has put in her analysis is that LaserGuy put Madge in confirmed townie group. plytho being next for accepting mine and Znirk's claims only for a reads list is also very weak reasoning, in my opinion. Based on the ordered list, she finds 2-3 people townie, 1-2 neutral, and everybody else in the scum region, which is an awfully heavy scum bias. Also, away from the reads list, post content is rather low. Finally, she voted for JustDanceUnlimited D1, despite having scum reads on several other players, at least one of whom already had votes on. Scummy.

bessie: I still don't find anything objectionable here. Bessie's D1 vote for JDU doesn't feel particularly out-of-character, although I think misguided - surely if a player is likely to be mod-killed, we might as well leave them alive and No Lynch instead? (Not that I'm advocating a No Lynch, but hopefully you get my point here). It was the first vote on him, so wasn't simply jumping on a wagon. Her general prodding of people makes me think she is townie.

Carlington: This might be a case of an idea that popped into my mind and then I obsessed about it too much, but there are a number of things that make me think that Carlington might be a Serial Killer. Firstly, from JDU's flip, I reckon an SK is likely. Secondly, he missed the fact that multiple kills are likely in the game, despite the flip. I could easily see somebody reacting to this point if they have it in their mind that they need to avoid town suspecting an SK. Thirdly, in that same post, when commenting on Gopher's comment about there being "more than 2 killing powers out there", he asks "how in the world do you figure that there's likely two NKs...". Note the discrepancy between the numbers mentioned. Again, I think an SK in the frame of mind in assuming that there are 2 kill powers out there (Mafia plus themselves) could easily make that mistake. Another, admittedly very circumstantial, point is that he voted Znirk D1 and is now voting Znirk again today. Whilst he has some basic fair reasons behind this, SK also needs to kill any survivors (presumably), so getting them lynched makes sense, to prevent an end-game scenario where the survivor randomly votes with whichever he chooses. He further tries to cast doubt on Madge being protected, effectively trying to distract away or reduce the perceived threat from an SK. I also find it interesting in going from thinking cult for me and Znirk is a bit much in LaserGuy's read to giving it as one of the reasons to vote Znirk at the end of the post.
Carlington wrote:While lynching indies isn't lynching scum, it doesn't cost us nearly as much as a mislynch, and in exchange we can potentially confirm a member of town, or possibly even unveil a cult and nip it in the bud early.
@Carlington - do you believe Znirk might be scum (other than cult)? What percentage likelihood would you say Znirk is a cult? Are you saying you are willing to sacrifice an indie to possibly get a confirmed town?

Yeah, SK!Carlington definitely sounds like a possibility. His vote reasoning is completely off. I think lynching a Serial Killer may even be more beneficial than lynching Mafia (1 less kill to worry about).

Unvote

Vote Carlington

Posting this now so that people can start to comment on this, whilst I continue my reads of other players.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:06 pm UTC

LaserGuy: seems to be pushing Znirk but provides good read-list on all players and natural-looking answers to questions. Bit less content than I'd like but he implied irl issues. Slightly townie.

Madge: most likely town due to miller, not much content to analyze. Upon further reflection the line that pinged me could be just Madge being herself, but she fooled me before.

plytho: I think the thought-process he shows throughout is natural. Don't see any obvious connection to possible scum-buddies. Townie.
off-topic
Spoiler:
plytho wrote:I think I remember a role in a recent game where a jester-like role could only win after a no-lynch. Odds of that appearing again in this game would be low though.
Just noticed this. That was the Suicidal Communist role from Trial of the Pariah that I modded, definitely not a newbie-friendly game.
SirGabriel: makes a lot of sense in his posts, most of which however is focused on jimbob/Znirk. Bit of lurking due to irl. Slightly townie, more so if he provides that read-list he promised.

Znirk: explained my reservations about the pm earlier, still could go either way. There were plenty of claims in the past that were mistrusted due to miswordings or not immediately providing details (e.g. bessie didn't believe Madge getting 1-shot Vig in WoT2 because dagger was not mentioned in original claim). So this alone isn't that significant to me, however there have been multiple such inconsistencies pointed out. As mentioned before I don't think they were in the same team D1, so it's either cult or scum!jimbob controlled the ability.

I'm actually for lynching jimbob as he's scum either way and Znirk might still be simple Survivor. However if they are really cult then Znirk is definitely the better choice.

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle

Apologies for the shorter analysis this time, was a long day. Probably won't be online during the new deadline, will try to follow on phone.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby dimochka » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:10 pm UTC

Current Votals:
Sabrar - 2 (Freezeblade, Gopher of Pern)
Carlington - 2 (bessie, Jimbobmacdoodle)
Znirk - 3 (SirGabriel, Carlington, LaserGuy)
Jimbobmacdoodle - 1 (Sabrar)

Not Voting: Znirk, plytho, adnapemit, Madge, mpolo

13 people alive, 7 to lynch.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Znirk » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:39 pm UTC

Phone acting up. I'll be brief:
SirGabriel wrote:See the following quotes:
Znirk wrote:I don't think survivor does need a false claim (note how it didn't occur to me to use one). Maybe Dimochka does, but what he actually says is that Red Vex might have use for one.
Znirk wrote:Or, if you're trying to get at the other inconsistency: Yes, the mod PM from last night does talk about my wanting to get out of town "in a living state"*. Presumably, then, undead and not yet re-killed is alive enough for colloquial purposes.
Znirk wrote:The question about why Red Vex is survivor is probably not answerable by anyone before the game ends and we can ask Dimochka

Perhaps oddities would be a better word than inconsistencies, but you've blamed the mod for them several times.

I consider all these to be cases where I point out that I'm being asked for information that I too can only speculate on. I'm not blaming anyone, just saying that the only possible source for a definite answer is the person who designed this thing.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Znirk » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:45 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Znirk: sorry if you have to explain it multiple times, but I want to get it absolutely clear. Is the below summary correct?
- your character name and role are outright stated by the mod,
- however jimbob's alignment is only hinted at in flavor-text.

Mostly correct, except that it's not outright a hint at jimbb's alignment. It's a hunt that in my mind excludes his being scum, and points at likely town, but does not specify what he is.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:42 pm UTC

Reads list, part 2. Notes:
Spoiler:
freezeblade - No vote D1. Nothing to claim. FoS people for jumping on JDU bandwagon - wants explanations. Votes Sabrar for hard-core buddying Znirk; also for pointing out no lynch danger. Responds to discussion on difference of indie versus miller claim. Believes Znirk and I telling the truth. Wouldn't claim D1, except as miller. Still thinks Sabrar is hedging bets after my claim and is trying to keep Znirk around for later support as scum. Would have voted Znirk.

Gopher of Pern - voted Sabrar D1. Likely more than 2 killing powers. Suspicious most of plytho and Sabrar for JDU votes, "3rd on the wagon" and carry-over suspicions from D1. Ditto Carlington for jumping on Znirk bandwagon. Too many on easy lynches. Trying to apply pressure to plytho with third on wagon comment. Thinks LaserGuy scummier for pushing Znirk. FoS SirG and LaserGuy for focusing on Znirk. More ding-dong with Sabrar. Explains reason to believe Miller more than indie. Thinks too much attention put on Znirk. Comments on number of kills and when. More comments on indies and threat levels. Shouldn't claim unless they have to. Pokes/responds to Carlington, SirGabriel and bessie. Provides reads list. Explains Sabrar/Gopher interaction. Brief reads list. Votes Sabrar for being scummiest tell. No clear scum reads.

LaserGuy - Updated reads list has Madge as confirmed town, plytho bessie as likely town. Leaning towards cult on me. Thinks one of Gopher/Sabrar is scum. freezeblade and SirGabriel are other scum leans. Responds to comments about his thoughts on Gopher and Sabrar. Responds to my questions about cult. Thinks if I am cult, then Znirk is with me. Votes Znirk - none of scum reads are particularly strong.

Madge - Nothing to report. JDU lynch was odd. Voted Znirk D1. Stream of thought post in parallel with re-read. Finds Sabrar protectiveness of Znirk too weird for Sabrar to be scummy. Plytho's reads post is really good. Has additional info on mine/Znirk interaction that would be revealed on her flipping.

mpolo - Suspected Sabrar before night fall, unsure who he would have voted for. No info from N1. Seen nasty indies claim D1 to get through as harmless. Has no reason to distrust me. Points out other reasons kill might have failed N1.

plytho - Votes JDU D1 (after previously voting Znirk), but actually has explanation on why JDU is scummy beyond simply lurking. Convinced Znirk not jester. Acknowledges Sabrar decided to save Znirk, but doesn't see where he is trying to convince others. Thinks good to analyse vote wagon. Asks for Sabrar to explain vote for JDU above Znirk. Posts reads list ignoring me and Znirk, ordered with freezeblade scummiest. Starts discussing mine and Znirk's claims and possible scenarios. Brief reads on a few players prodded by Sabrar. States 60% likelihood of us telling truth. Some discussion on SK/cult!Madge scenario.

Sabrar - Voted JDU D1; previously voted Gopher of Pern. Moved vote to prevent no lynch. Immediate sense of resignation start of D2. Links his flip to Znirk's alignment. Gopher might be jester. Maybe even-night SK. LaserGuy scummier for pushing Znirk. Ding-dong with Gopher. Thoughts on JDU's second ability. Thinks Znirk D1 claim unlikely to come from scum. Thinks wasting lynch on Znirk bad idea. Forgot that Znirk claimed I was non-town. Some discussion on my/Znirk claims, including possible scenarios. Prods quiet players. More discussion on early indie/miller claims. Queries adnapemit's reads ordering. Raises idea of Madge SK/cult leader because of ping. Queries Carlington's reads posts. Reads list and votes me.

SirGabriel - Doesn't like how me and freezeblade got so suspicous of people voting for JDU. Various options regarding mine and Znirk's message. FoSses Gopher for taking my claim for granted. Nothing to report from N1. Talks about why Znirk/me are lying.
freezeblade: D1 lurking is normal for him, but not so much after that. The lack of any substantial content on anybody apart from on Sabrar, and to a lesser extent Znirk and myself, doesn't look good for him. Slightly scummy due to lurking, but nothing in what he has posted is particularly bad, in my opinion.

Gopher of Pern: Nothing particularly negative comes from his posts, in my opinion, with the exception of the weird statement (slip?) in his post about the number of killing powers. Leaning town.

LaserGuy: Firstly, thank you for your responses to my questions. Another player who is voting Znirk as a "safe bet" today (similar to Carlington). As noted before, I find his stream of posts regarding mine and Znirk claims scummy due to a lack of discussion of pretty much anything else. He took a bit of prodding to respond fully to my questions as asked, and I think he twisted some of my D1 comments about a possible hidden win condition to fit his narrative. Not taking a firm stance on most players is not usually a sign of townieness, so I'm still leaning scum on him, though slightly less than before (and more importantly I find at least one other player scummier).

Madge: Another lurker (claimed due to a busy couple of days), with only two posts (one very brief) on D2. I'd be really interested to know what other information she has about me and Znirk, but am not demanding it, if she feels it better to hold back. Like with most players, her D1 miller claim, combined with my belief that she was successfully protected from the night kill, leads me to think she is Town (I doubt SK!Madge would claim Miller, and to be honest, ditto Mafia!Madge).

mpolo: Nothing really worth commenting on for obvious reasons.

<Note - starting to lose focus on this, so these last few reads may not be so thorough.->

plytho: Is avoiding focusing overly on one topic, but makes sure to still discuss things such as GoP/Sabrar and me/Znirk well, which overall looks good. I see nothing that strikes me as scummy; even their D1 vote on JDU makes a reasonable amount of sense (they provided reasoning beyond simply lurking). Leaning town.

Sabrar: Not sure how I feel about Sabrar today. Bits have felt good; bits have felt bad. His early resignation doesn't strike me as great. This was definitely frustrated Sabrar shining, but I've seen that from both scum!Sabrar and town!Sabrar. He does seem a bit overly defensive at times. I'm running out of steam to go through the reads list in detail. I still don't fully buy Sabrar's reason for his conviction on Znirk being Survivor for D1 and the early part of D2. The ping on Madge was weird - that sounded exactly like typical Madge to me. Slightly scummy overall, but hardly the scummiest player.

SirGabriel: He's wrong about me and Znirk, but I can't prove that without Znirk flipping, and I don't see anything particularly wrong in his analysis on the matter. He hasn't given much other opinions on most other players, but I don't get a scummy vibe from what he has said. Very slightly townie. ahippo's Griswold claim is still weird, but not exactly something to worry about at this point.

I'm not going to bother re-reading Znirk at this point because it is getting late and I'm exhausted from spending way too long doing this, the previous, and the next post. Modulo serious lying from the mod, I know him to be a Survivor. I do find one or two things slightly odd, especially regarding the distancing himself from me, but that's possibly out of a sense of self-preservation more than anything else, or simply a difference in interpretation of the PM, coming from different points of view (i.e. I know my own alignment, he knows his).

Town
Madge
bessie
plytho
Gopher of Pern
SirGabriel
mpolo
Znirk = Survivor
freezeblade
Sabrar
LaserGuy
adnapemit
Carlington = Serial Killer
Scum
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:46 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Gopher of Pern: advocates lying as town if he feels it helps him. This is something we will probably never agree on, however also could explain why I'm getting scummy vibes from him every game. Never really answers why he thinks more than 2 NK is likely (skirted the question by only replying to Carlington who misphrased it slightly). He was the player with the best reason to kill SirGabriel. Still looking scummy to me.


Yes, I forgot to address that, as I couldn't find who asked me. I've already explained most of it, but it was JDU's role reveal, which definitely implies more than one kill, and my assumption was a scum kill, a SK, and a Vig. There may be restrictions on the SK and Vig, like one-shot vig, or even-night SK, but I think that both would be in this game. There might also be some conditional kills, like PGO, or lovers, but I wouldn't classify them as killing powers.

plytho, adnapemit, Madge, are you going to vote for anyone? Less than a day to go.

jimbob, tha'ts an interesting theory on Carlington. If Carlington hadn't posted so much recently, I'd be inclined to believe it, but I'm not quite there. It's something to keep an eye on.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:55 pm UTC

As with last week, I wrote these comments and questions at the same time as my reads posts. There is likely some degree of focus on earlier player's in alphabetical order unfortunately as a result. If you have specific questions for me, please make them, and I'll try to get to them before deadline.

Some general thoughts on Znirk and I and people's accusations in this area. I certainly can understand why people might think I was recruited by Znirk. However, I'm going to put forward some food for thought for everyone who thinks we're in a cult together. There are possible explanations to all of these, but I'm curious to hear people's thoughts on them:

1) Why would I draw attention so much to Znirk (and myself), if Znirk is the cult leader, before any real pressure was put on him?
2) Why would Znirk recruit a player who was actively attacking him for most of D1, if it was going to be obvious that my opinion changed the next day?
3) Why would Znirk bother to claim that I am non-scum and bring up the mutual PM point, when it would have been easier and less suspicious to simply go with what I had claimed and nothing else?

In response to bessie here:
bessie wrote:Interesting comment here:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm willing to let LaserGuy and Znirk pass on their votes for a townie, the former because of preventing no lynch and the latter because of self-defence. I'll need to look at the others bit more when I have more time.


You supposedly confirmed him as an indie/survivor. You don’t need another excuse to “let him pass” on your vote analysis, do you?
Not as such, but what that meant was that I wasn't going to bother analysing it further - as a survivor, which I knew him to be, self-defence makes perfect sense.

@Gopher of Pern - I don't think I've seen a response from you on the more-than-2 kill powers statement earlier. Please explain this statement (or actively refuse to, at the very least).

@Sabrar - I don't think I've seen any previous examples of this ability in the 2 years that I've been playing or following. However, it does bear some resemblance to other abilities visible on dimochka's link, IIRC (haven't double-checked, so could be completely misremembering the content). I've sent dimochka a message on the topic. Also, I had a busy few days this game day at work on Wednesday to Friday, so wasn't able to do more detailed analysis until now.

@Znirk - I just reread the PM, and it looks to me that I am stated as non-scum to you in that. Maybe I'm interpreting things differently to you though. Perhaps a mod-question to confirm is in order, if you still aren't sure.

@everyone - regarding confusion between mod-speak and flavour etc in our PM, dimochka wrote the whole PM in bold type, but there is a clear difference in style between most of it (the flavour) and the actual information part, although one part is perhaps more debatable. For my part, Znirk is definitely "confirmed" (i.e. in the clear information part) as Survivor. This is what I meant in previous statements about why I am sure about it, and why I don't believe it to be false information.

@SirGabriel - I think Znirk has already addressed most of your concerns about the PM, and I agree with the majority of what he said. As noted previously, I didn't realise Znirk received the same message initially, hence leaving bits out that I didn't think were relevant coming from me (such as my alignment), and I didn't see the need to go into detail, given that I had mod-text confirmation of Znirk's alignment. Also, I think Znirk's false claim is not what he'd show up as in anything. Indeed, given a role-cop ability, I'd usually expect true identities to show up, so although this isn't a role-cop, it does have a similar affect, in my opinion.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby plytho » Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:20 pm UTC

Today has been busier than expected. I'm going to vote now but might change after proper reading tomorrow morning or in order to break ties. Looking at the people who currently have votes I think I'd be more likely to vote for Carlington or Znirk rather than Sabrar or jimbobmacdoodle.

For now my top scum pick remains Freezeblade. I find his tunneling on Sabrar and lack of opinions on others suspicious.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby bessie » Mon Mar 13, 2017 12:13 am UTC

Carlington wrote:An addendum to my post a couple of posts up: SirG was preparing a healing salve for Madge, but we have no idea whether it was used or not. I don't think we ought to assume Madge was protected from a kill last night.
Per mod clarification Madge was protected, we just don’t know if the protection was needed. You’re trying to downplay the threat of a serial killer.
Carlington wrote:The mod also said in bold that we shouldn't take that as saying anything about the execution/failure of the action. Hence, I doubt the successful execution of the action.
The protection happened; this is not a player claim, it is a mod decree. Maybe it wasn't needed or maybe it saved her, but that's opinion and there's no publicly revealed evidence or player claims to back up either scenario.

Carlington wrote: As for NK targets, SK needs to try not to hit too many scum, otherwise when the game doesn't end they are a lone wolf against town. Scum, however, probably wants to vary their targets depending on how they all are being read currently - if they're being picked up as scum, they want to target folks from neutral and town ends of people lists so as to avoid narrowing the field of lynch candidates to themselves. If they're broadly regarded as towny, kill off the scummy end of the list and leave town with no scum reads to vote for.
If both SK and mafia generally targets neutral/townie players, then what do you find odd about the choice of SirGabriel for the night kill if he was neutral on most people’s lists (town on yours, scum on GoP’s)?

Carlington wrote:Also, I only provided reads on people I had things to say about. The rest of the information there is given as a reference for my thoughts at this time, but I didn't see the sense in listing off a whole bunch of "neutral/slightly town" "neutral/slightly scum" when they won't have any bearing anyway.
So you read almost everyone as neutral, fine, but that's not helpful tomorrow if town!you is night killed. Please provide an ordered list, town to scum. Include every player that is alive (and by alive I mean everyone who is playing D2). No groupings. Your name at one end, your scummiest read at the other end, and everyone else, one per line, in between. If you need an example, see the end of this post.

Gopher of Pern wrote:bessie, you will find reads in my posts. I don't often put up huge lists, because it's very time consuming. If I don't mention anything, it's because I don't regard it as particularly scummy or townie, therefore of less relevance.
I didn’t mean to imply that there were no reads in your posts, just that your content was Sabrar-focused. Your later reads list is fine.

Sabrar wrote:@Carlington: I might be misunderstanding you, please clarify. Do you think that SirGabriel's action itself was not successful (e.g. he was roleblocked), or that his action did not have any impact on the results (i.e. no one tried to kill Madge)?
Yes Carlington, I would be interested in hearing your answer to this too.

Znirk wrote:Jimbob and I are not a cult; unless Jimbob has been another indie all along we're not even co-aligned.
You can still be linked without being cult, and you don’t need to be the same alignment to be linked (see Draculafia for an example of a town-scum lover pair).

Sabrar wrote:bessie: she seems sure about her ideas being correct (too sure in my opinion), this is consistent with her most recent games (Secret Santa, WoT2) where she was Town. Her defense of LaserGuy looks interesting, though it could be a result because she's so sure about jimbob being scum that she wants to pick apart his reads. Has better posts than in WoT1 where I noticed that she lacked real content.
(1) Maybe. (2) I'm not sure jimbob is scum, but I think he has a link with Znirk. (3) WTF? Why use WoT1 as an example of my content? There were outside factors that influenced that game, and I didn’t even get to post on D3 before I was hammered. Or did you mean WoT2, and if yes, double WTF?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Carlington: This might be a case of an idea that popped into my mind and then I obsessed about it too much, but there are a number of things that make me think that Carlington might be a Serial Killer. Firstly, from JDU's flip, I reckon an SK is likely. Secondly, he missed the fact that multiple kills are likely in the game, despite the flip.
He didn’t miss it; he’s actively trying to downplay the possibility of more than one non-town kill in the game.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - I don't think I've seen any previous examples of this ability in the 2 years that I've been playing or following.
I couldn’t find the question to which this is a reply. Is it about your night conversation?

I just read the roles and endgame for The 13 Ghosts of Scooby Doo, and I starting to believe this game may be more complex than I previously thought.

Updated list (work in progress)

bessie
mpolo
Madge
SirGabriel/ahippo
LaserGuy
plytho
Gopher of Pern
adnapemit
freezeblade
jimbobmacdoodle
Znirk
Sabrar
Carlington

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby adnapemit » Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:40 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:plytho, adnapemit, Madge, are you going to vote for anyone? Less than a day to go.

Yes.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:35 am UTC

Purely because of my vague hint about jimbob, I'm not sure I like whatever he was up to with Znirk last night (e.g. culter??? it seems to fit....).

I'm sorry if I missed it, I've been having a hard time keeping track of everything with so many players, but did jimbob claim at all?

If jimbob claim(s/ed), then I will vote / not vote for jimbob based on that. Purely because I can't think of anything better. I think jimbob gives us more useful information about Znirk, who if jimbob is town has a pro-town ability, but again that depends on any jimbob ability.

Probably won't have time for a big post, maybe even a vote, before deadline. It depends on exactly when it is. I'll definitely check back within 12 hours though to see what's up.

For the record I do think it more or less goes without saying that we're going to have a SK, based on the flip and the number of players.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:47 am UTC

I believe Jimbob claimed to be a redirector, and attempted to redirect Sabrar and Znirk last night.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:05 am UTC

Cheers. Doesn't deserve my vote then though I don't generally like redirectors getting up to mischief, it's not a very scummy claim.

Will have to think about it some more. I don't think Sabrar is worth lynching and I think Znirk at least might give us information (wine-infused or not is another question).
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby dimochka » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:54 am UTC

Current Votals:
Sabrar - 2 (Freezeblade, Gopher of Pern)
Carlington - 2 (bessie, Jimbobmacdoodle)
Znirk - 3 (SirGabriel, Carlington, LaserGuy)
Jimbobmacdoodle - 2 (Sabrar, adnapemit)
Freezeblade - 1 (plytho)

Not Voting: Znirk, Madge, mpolo

13 people alive, 7 to lynch.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:29 am UTC

Vote: Carlington

I'll definitely be back before deadline so I can unvote to avoid a tie. (Probably in about 3 hours). But that will be my only chance. (Unless I come back with a bit more analysis before the end of the hour)

Reason why voting Carlington:

- Think Znirk lynch won't tell us much, we already lynched our cop, why lynch a potential tracker?

- Sabrar I think is town due to meta

- Jimbob I think is probably not scum due to claim

- Carlington I have no real opinion of, but because my opinion is not!others, then I by definition think Carlington is a better lynch candidate than the other three, and he's got votes from bessie, who is pretty trustworthy. Jimbob is less so.

Could also be convinced to vote for Freezeblade for the same reasons as Carlington. I hope to have time to look through Carlington and Freezeblade and change my vote but I'm not sure I will, end of the work day is always unpredictable.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:42 am UTC

Had a chance to look everything over. Carlington and Freezeblade are very similar to me. Both lurking but have a few good posts. Freezeblade more consistent at first, Carlington more consistent later.

I think Freezeblade's observations were better, I personally am on the side of reads lists being kind of terrible - you can produce a lot of content by summarising peoples' actions, so it looks good, and it takes a long time, but does it really tell you something?? Probably? Maybe? I never feel smarter or more informed after doing them. So that's likely just my personal bias.

Regardless I'm happy keeping my vote on Carlington. Especially with lurking D1 and early D2. I think lurking is underrated as a scumtell. So I'm happy with my choice for now.
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