Diablo Mafia - Day 6 (The End)

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby bessie » Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:17 pm UTC

Madge blocked jimbobmacdoodle N3. For convenience, here's the updated list of claims.

Roles/claims
Spoiler:
Town
JustDanceUnlimited, Cain the Elder, alignment cop
SirGabriel, Pepin the Healer, doctor
ahippo/SirGabriel, Griswold the Blacksmith, bodyguard/vigilante
mpolo/SDK, Ogden the Tavern Owner, mason/jailer
Gopher of Pern, Lester the Farmer, backup/hider

Mafia
Sabrar, Archbishop Lazarus, ninja/recruiter

Independent
Znirk, Red Vex, tracker, survivor

Role Claims
adnapemit, Sorcerer of Vizjerei, vigilante
bessie, Gillian the Barmaid, mason/watcher
Carlington, Warrior of Khanduras, JOAT
freezeblade, Monk of the Brotherhood, commuter
jimbobmacdoodle, Wirt the Peg-Legged Boy, redirector, survivor
LaserGuy, Barbarian, bulletproof/vigilante
Madge, Farnham the Drunk, miller/roleblocker
Plytho, Bard, follower

Night actions
Spoiler:
N1 actions (SirGabriel night killed)
adnapemit – none (claim)
ahippo – unknown
bessie – watch mpolo (no visitors)
Carlington – track ahippo, did not do anything
freezeblade – none (claim)
Gopher of Pern – bulletproof
jimbobmacdoodle – redirect Znirk to Sabrar
LaserGuy – none (claim)
Madge – block Znirk
mpolo – jail Sabrar
plytho – follow Sabrar (did not use an action)
Sabrar – unknown (jailed by mpolo)
SirGabriel – doctor Madge (mod confirmed)
Znirk – track Sabrar (failed)

N2 actions (ahippo/SirGabriel night killed)
adnapemit – none (claim)
ahippo/SirGabriel – unknown
bessie – watch Gopher of Pern (no visitors)
Carlington – doctor plytho
freezeblade – commute
Gopher of Pern – unknown
jimbobmacdoodle – redirect Carlington to adnapemit
LaserGuy – none (claim)
Madge – block Carlington
mpolo/SDK – jail LaserGuy
plytho – follow freezeblade (action failed)
Sabrar – unknown

N3 actions (Gopher of Pern, mpolo/SDK night killed)
adnapemit – vig LaserGuy
bessie – watch SDK (visited by Carlington)
Carlington – vig adnapemit
freezeblade – none available (claim)
Gopher of Pern – unknown
jimbobmacdoodle – redirect adnapemit to freezeblade
LaserGuy – none (claim)
Madge – block jimbobmacdoodle
mpolo/SDK – jail LaserGuy
plytho – follow adnapemit (attempted a kill)

N3 results would depend on the order of night actions. dimochka probably used these guidelines, but there is no guarantee.

So according to those guidelines, this would be the order (assuming all claims true for the purposes of this example):

LaserGuy/bulletproof.
Madge blocked jimbobmacdoodle.
SDK jailed LaserGuy.
[theoretical GoP doctor action would go here]
jimbob’s redirect did not happen because he was blocked.
Carlington vig adnapemit.
adnapemit vig LaserGuy which failed because LaserGuy was jailed.
[theoretical GoP cop action would go here]
bessie watches SDK and sees Carlington.
Plytho follows adnapemit and sees her attempt a kill.

Carlington’s and bessie’s night action claims are in conflict. So either one of is lying or someone else is lying and used an action on one us to mess with the results. Also, the claims do not explain why adnapemit is alive and Gopher of Pern is dead.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Mar 26, 2017 8:31 pm UTC

IGMEOY LaserGuy for not reading the full claims list properly at all.

I agree with bessie re. the likely action order. I believe bessie more than Carlington, and I think a second redirector is unlikely, therefore Carlington deliberately killed SDK. I think it likely that adnapemit killed Gopher of Pern.

I thought of another reason why adnapemit is the Serial Killer. With plytho's action meaning her own action is detectable, adnapemit had to claim full vigilante. Otherwise, she cannot kill again (assuming plytho always targets her), without risking being called a lier. A vigilante and Serial Killer are otherwise indistinguishable, modulo cop actions. Furthermore, game balance suggests to me that she cannot be a full vigilante, if a full SK is present, even with the apparent number of protective powers, and she cannot be a big and there not be a Serial Killer present, unless we do have another redirector.

I think the naïve supporter is the likeliest case of those listed, but who wins with town if not recruited. The master is not pleased might mean that they are a naïve silversmith in fact, so Sabrar would die after a successful recruit.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby plytho » Sun Mar 26, 2017 9:09 pm UTC

Trying to figure out scum and SK between Carlington and adnapemit. Please check my reasoning.
I’m speculating that the scum team was Sabrar + (Carlington or adnapemit) + third scum (80% LaserGuy, 20% someone else). My focus here is on Carlington and adnapemit so I’ll use LaserGuy as scum3 in my analysis unless I find a reason not to.
I'm not looking at missing kills. My assumption is that both kills last nigth were deliberate and on target.

N1:

1 kill: SirGabriel

Kill affecting powers claimed:
Madge was protected
Sabrar was jailed
(Znirk was roleblocked)

Possible attempting killers:
Sabrar (jailed)
Carlington
Adnapemit
LaserGuy
Other

It seems very likely that Sabrar was the first scum killer with Znirk (Red Vex) as his target. I don’t really see scum playing it any other way with that recruiting power.
That makes SirGabriel the likely SK kill.

Also possible but unlikely:
scum targeted SirGabriel, SK targeted protected Madge
scum targeted protected Madge, SK targeted SirGabriel

SirGabriel didn’t have a lot of D1 content and read only Znirk and GoP as slightly scummy. Sabrar was his top scum read at first but he corrected to neutral based on a missed reads list. I don’t think there was any strong motive behind the choice of SirGabriel as target. Probably a random kill on a pretty townie/neutral read? That makes it hard to deduce who might have killed him. Carlington and adnapemit were both free to kill.

N2:

1 kill: SirGabriel (formerly know as ahippo)

Kill affecting powers claimed:
(maybe someone was protected by GoP?)
LaserGuy was Jailed
Carlington was roleblocked

Possible attempting killers:
Sabrar
Carlington (roleblocked)
Adnapemit
LaserGuy (jailed)
Other

I don’t see why scum would target SirGabriel specifically. His D2 content focussed on Znirk and that’s how he voted. Hmm, perhaps scum retaliated for losing their possible recruit? In any case SirGabriel was probably a low profile townie and as such less likely to be protected by others. So I can see scum targeting him. SK needs less motivation perhaps but if I were SK I wouldn’t try to kill the same player twice. So I feel like it’s more likely that the N2 SirGabriel kill was a scum kill.

Scum team spec:
1) Sabrar + adnapemit + scum3 (LaserGuy?) -> SK: Carlington
In this scenario the SK kill was blocked and scum (sabrar or adnapemit) targeted SirGabriel.

2) Sabrar + Carlington + scum3 (LaserGuy?) -> SK: adnapemit
2a: SK!adnapemit killed SirGabriel (again), scum did not choose Sabrar as killer but Carlington or LaserGuy and were blocked (or targeted someone protected by doctor:GoP)
2b:Sabrar killed SirGabriel, SK!adnapemit targeted LaserGuy (if jail protects, do we know this?) or someone protected by doctor!GoP

Scenario 1 seems the most likely, making Carlington my SK suspect.
Scenario 2a seems less likely because of killing SirG twice.
Scenario 2b seems unlikely because it depends on too many things I think: Sabrar is the scum killer, adnapemit targeted LaserGuy AND jail protects or adnapemit targeted someone else AND GoP picked doctor AND protected adnapemit's target.


LaserGuy wrote:What happened N3 is as follows:
Town!adnapemit targeted me with her Vig kill. This was redirected to freezeblade by jimbob.
SK!freezeblade is NK immune, so that kill was blocked. SK!freezeblade targets Gopher of Pern and kills him.
Carlington uses the mafia NK on SDK.


Maybe I'm tunneling too much (I expect people in Gojoe mass replying "yes you are!") but this reads like LaserGuy is trying to clear his buddy adnapemit from suspicion by moving the focus to SK!Carlington and Sabrar pusher freezeblade.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I thought of another reason why adnapemit is the Serial Killer. With plytho's action meaning her own action is detectable, adnapemit had to claim full vigilante. Otherwise, she cannot kill again (assuming plytho always targets her), without risking being called a lier. A vigilante and Serial Killer are otherwise indistinguishable, modulo cop actions. Furthermore, game balance suggests to me that she cannot be a full vigilante, if a full SK is present, even with the apparent number of protective powers, and she cannot be a big and there not be a Serial Killer present, unless we do have another redirector.


That's a good point. It could also be a scum play though. As scum claiming a one shot also puts you in a tight spot if you want to be able to choose a killer. I still think Carlington is more likely SK but I'm less sure now.

I think the naïve supporter is the likeliest case of those listed, but who wins with town if not recruited. The master is not pleased might mean that they are a naïve silversmith in fact, so Sabrar would die after a successful recruit.

That makes sense.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:08 pm UTC

Nope, I didn't post in the wrong thread!
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby bessie » Mon Mar 27, 2017 4:45 am UTC

Unofficial votals

Carlington (3) : bessie, adnapemit, freezeblade
adnapemit (1) : jimbobmacdoodle

Not voting: Carlington, LaserGuy, Madge, plytho


jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I thought of another reason why adnapemit is the Serial Killer. With plytho's action meaning her own action is detectable, adnapemit had to claim full vigilante. Otherwise, she cannot kill again (assuming plytho always targets her), without risking being called a lier. A vigilante and Serial Killer are otherwise indistinguishable, modulo cop actions. Furthermore, game balance suggests to me that she cannot be a full vigilante, if a full SK is present, even with the apparent number of protective powers, and she cannot be a big and there not be a Serial Killer present, unless we do have another redirector.
I doubt adnapemit or LaserGuy is a vigilante. Too many kills. One of them, or Carlington, might really be a JOAT and have a one-shot vig as part of that role.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I think the naïve supporter is the likeliest case of those listed, but who wins with town if not recruited. The master is not pleased might mean that they are a naïve silversmith in fact, so Sabrar would die after a successful recruit.
I agree with this, except that I think Znirk was recruitable. There might be one other, but it doesn’t matter because I don’t think a recruit happened N2, so that player should be able to win with town.

plytho wrote:I don’t think there was any strong motive behind the choice of SirGabriel as target. Probably a random kill on a pretty townie/neutral read? That makes it hard to deduce who might have killed him.
In the single game I played where I was the serial killer, Doctor Who Mafia, I used random.org to select all my targets for this reason.

I’ve been thinking about Sabrar’s role since the start of D4, and it doesn’t fit with the way dimochka claimed he set up the game, with powers pre-assigned to roles and the alignments randomized. I don’t see anything about Sabrar’s role that could have been town. Unless his role was the real one-shot vigilante before the alignments were randomized. This is bothering me, but three days thinking about it has gotten me nowhere.

Carlington, are you going to answer plytho’s questions?

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:16 pm UTC

Two unanswered questions:
plytho wrote:@Carlington: you haven’t responded to my concerns from the end of D3 about the mismatch between your soft claim ‘everyone will know what I mean when I say I may have caused plytho’s power to fail’ and your doctor power claim. Your JOAT claim (which I predicted) does not help. It’s still not clear why you would think it’s obvious to ‘everyone’ that ‘I may have caused plytho’s power to fail’ means ‘I used the doctor power from my JOAT arsenal to protect plytho’. Bonus question: why did you target adnapemit with your vig shot?
plytho wrote:
@freezeblade: your one shot commuter power seems quite limited compared to the other claimed powers. Is that your only power?


Further comments and analysis:
freezeblade wrote:Scenario 1: We lynch the SK, block the correct mafia member. Result: No night kills
Scenario 2: We lynch the SK, block the wrong mafia member. Result: 1 night kill
Scenario 3: We lynch a mafia member, block one of the other two. Result: 1 night kill (but not looking so good, as indie could switch sides here, resulting in a possible town loss)
Scenario 4: We suck and lynch a town. Result: We lose.


Assuming we’re at 4 town/ 2 mafia/ 1 survivor/ 1 SK at this point:
Scenario 1: we end up with 4 town/2 mafia/ 1 survivor
Scenario 2: we end up with 3 town/2 mafia/ 1 survivor
Scenario 3: we end up with 3 town/1 mafia/ 1 survivor / 1 SK

Why would indie be likely to switch in scenario 3 but not scenario 2?

bessie wrote:I’ve been thinking about Sabrar’s role since the start of D4, and it doesn’t fit with the way dimochka claimed he set up the game, with powers pre-assigned to roles and the alignments randomized. I don’t see anything about Sabrar’s role that could have been town. Unless his role was the real one-shot vigilante before the alignments were randomized. This is bothering me, but three days thinking about it has gotten me nowhere.
That's a good point. I'll think on that later today.


jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Town - I'm going to continue to attempt to redirect kills, since they are the main threat. Any specific requests however, I may meet. I'm not in siding-with-scum mode yet.


It may be useful to coördinate with Madge’s rolebloking?
Top 3 scum reads, they match with jimbob and freezeblade's top 3 (and probably others): Carlington, adnapemit and LaserGuy. We lynch one of the known killers Carlington or adnapemit. Jimbob redirects LaserGuy to the killer we didn’t lynch. Madge blocks the killer we didn’t lynch.

That way IF those are the three scum/SK AND IF they don’t have powers to mess this up THEN this strategy guarantees a no (town)kill night.

Actually I don’t even think they could mess this up with any powers as the only one of them that can use a power in this scenario is redirected to an other scum/SK.

So figuring out whether these are indeed the three scum/SK is very useful right now.

Current town to scum:

plytho - me

bessie - remains a strong townie feel, good reads and questions. Sensible watcher targets. Is Gillian, hasn’t been counterclaimed.

Madge - Sensible roleblock targets. Still feeling townie. Farnham=miller also makes sense. The confusion with jimbob was a bit strange though.

freezeblade - pushing Sabrar hard from D2 which seems too early for a bus. Is on my scummy end of town because the one-shot commuter claim seems light.

jimbobmacdoodle - No reason to think he’s anything other than claimed.

LaserGuy - SDK seems to have a scumhunting reputation so I’ll quote this:
SDK wrote:LaserGuy - Best bet for Sabrar's scum buddy. If Sabrar flips mafia, 95% sure LaserGuy is mafia too. If Sabrar flips non-mafia, I'd give him more like 75%.

I don’t like the post LaserGuy made earlier where he seemed defending adnapemit. I think his one-shot bulletproof that turns vig is not a full claim as it’s not very likely to be useful. I’m thinking he probably has an entirely different power and is using this claim to be able to use a kill power and refer back to this should he be spotted at night.

adnapemit - Used one of two claimed killing power on a night with two deaths. Her claimed target is still alive. I also don’t like the time it took her to claim vigilante.
Three people (jimbob, bessie, me) claimed before this post:
adnapemit wrote:
plytho wrote:@adnapemit: who did you kill, SDK or Gopher of Pern?

No one. I targeted LaserGuy last night.

Which is a very open claim. Freezeblade and LaserGuy and Madge claimed after that. Carlington claimed second-but-last. More than 10 hours after that first post there’s this claim:
adnapemit wrote:I targeted LaserGuy with a Vig kill since he seemed the most scummiest.

And a full day after that, the confirmation that it is not a one shot vigilante power:
adnapemit wrote:
plytho wrote:Was your vig kill a one-shot?
No.
That timeline doesn’t feel townie at all. I'd expect a vigilante to full claim clearly in that first post.

Carlington - Still hasn’t answered my question, was seen killing SDK, claims N1 and N2 are unverifiable and N3 claim of a kill attempt on adnapemit who’s still alive doesn’t match any protection/blocking claims. I'm thinking Carlington is likely SK because of the connection between adnapemit and LaserGuy.

Right now I'd propose:
lynch Carlington
roleblock adnapemit
redirect LaserGuy to adnapemit

I believe that should lead to a no kill night.

I'm not voting yet because I'd like to see more reasoning and feedback on my thoughts before someone can hammer.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:44 pm UTC

bessie wrote:I’ve been thinking about Sabrar’s role since the start of D4, and it doesn’t fit with the way dimochka claimed he set up the game, with powers pre-assigned to roles and the alignments randomized. I don’t see anything about Sabrar’s role that could have been town. Unless his role was the real one-shot vigilante before the alignments were randomized. This is bothering me, but three days thinking about it has gotten me nowhere.


Sabrar's role pm wrote:Sabrar is dead. He was Archibishop Lazarus, aligned with scum.
Spoiler:
Role: Archbishop Lazarus
Description: You don't fully know when the sweet words of the Prime Evils entered your consciousness. It must have been back in Kurast, while guarding Mephisto's soulstone. But what you believed or knew no longer matters. Diablo is your master and you will do anything for him. You've already brought him Leoric, but unfortunately that did not work out as planned. The king's son, on the other hand, worked out great. Now you just need to help Diablo clean Tristam up of these pesky villagers, and then make your way back to Kurast to "meet" some of your old friends.
Alignment: You are scum and win when all factions opposing you are eliminated or this outcome is inevitable.
Additional Information: You always liked Adria the Witch. She was a smart woman with a knack for spellcasting. So when Diablo finally shared some of his power with you, she was the first target on your list. It was much easier than you thought to take her out last night; after all, she was an old woman. Interestingly, with that hooded cloak of hers, you think you'll be able to pass for her from a distance.

Abilities:
- You have private night chat with [Redacted].
- Since your one concern was to stay undetected, you rummaged through Adria's spell books. Sadly, none of it made sense to you. Should've kept the damn woman alive... but you did manage to find a scroll of invisibility on your way out. It is now strangely bound to you, but it could prove useful. The scroll acts as a one-shot ninja power, which allows you to perform the factional night kill completely undetected.
- As a confidant of Diablo, you've garnered some respect among the demon "community", and may be able to sway some of them to do your bidding. Should you use the night kill on an appropriate target / given the right circumstances, you may find a supporter. You are unsure, however, how Diablo will feel about your new "management" abilities.



I think dimochka came up with a role for Adria the witch with two powers. One that involved a scroll of invisibility and another that involved gaining mason chat perhaps or something like the survivors? This line: "As a confidant of Diablo, you've garnered some respect among the demon "community", and may be able to sway some of them to do your bidding." may even indicate some sort of redirect for the Adria character. When Adria was randomly assigned to be scum she was replaced by lazarus and the powers modified to fit a mafia alignment.

I believe something similar happened with Znirk's red vex. His tracking power matches the original rogue character better than red vex.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby freezeblade » Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:29 pm UTC

I have returned from the weekend, and read the resulting posts. Some comments:

I agree with plytho's proposed night-actions. That sounds about right, and should result in no kills, granted no meddling from unclaimed powers.

Those that are saying my claim is light, they are right, I do have another one-shot power, but I have not used it so far because I have little control over it (it is not a power I chose the target[s] on), and I thought it would just fowl things up during the night. It may still be useful if things do not pan out favorably in the next night, so I will refrain from full claiming it unless heavily pressed.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:09 pm UTC

To quote Sabrar: where is everybody? I'd like to get some more feedback on my thoughts. I probably won't be able to post a lot tomorrow but I'll try to reply to questions.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby adnapemit » Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:37 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Three people (jimbob, bessie, me) claimed before this post:
adnapemit wrote:
plytho wrote:@adnapemit: who did you kill, SDK or Gopher of Pern?

No one. I targeted LaserGuy last night.

Which is a very open claim. Freezeblade and LaserGuy and Madge claimed after that. Carlington claimed second-but-last. More than 10 hours after that first post there’s this claim:
adnapemit wrote:I targeted LaserGuy with a Vig kill since he seemed the most scummiest.

And a full day after that, the confirmation that it is not a one shot vigilante power:
adnapemit wrote:
plytho wrote:Was your vig kill a one-shot?
No.
That timeline doesn’t feel townie at all. I'd expect a vigilante to full claim clearly in that first post.

The first post was me responding as quick as possible so people would not think i waited to make up a claim but not having the time to make a proper response. I thought that the kill was implied since I didn't claim anything else. But i was more specific later because i apparently wasn't clear enough the first time.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:39 pm UTC

I'm a little uncomfortable with the proposal, mainly because it relies on another player blocking my preferred Serial killer, which I'd rather have control over. I wouldn't object to Madge blocking LaserGuy and me redirecting adnapemit to LaserGuy. Of course, I'd rather lynch adnapemit, but it looks like I'm the only one.

This may well be my last post this game day, but I will try to check on things, if I get a chance.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:11 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Two unanswered questions:
plytho wrote:@Carlington: you haven’t responded to my concerns from the end of D3 about the mismatch between your soft claim ‘everyone will know what I mean when I say I may have caused plytho’s power to fail’ and your doctor power claim. Your JOAT claim (which I predicted) does not help. It’s still not clear why you would think it’s obvious to ‘everyone’ that ‘I may have caused plytho’s power to fail’ means ‘I used the doctor power from my JOAT arsenal to protect plytho’. Bonus question: why did you target adnapemit with your vig shot?
plytho wrote:
@freezeblade: your one shot commuter power seems quite limited compared to the other claimed powers. Is that your only power?


Further comments and analysis:
freezeblade wrote:Scenario 1: We lynch the SK, block the correct mafia member. Result: No night kills
Scenario 2: We lynch the SK, block the wrong mafia member. Result: 1 night kill
Scenario 3: We lynch a mafia member, block one of the other two. Result: 1 night kill (but not looking so good, as indie could switch sides here, resulting in a possible town loss)
Scenario 4: We suck and lynch a town. Result: We lose.


Assuming we’re at 4 town/ 2 mafia/ 1 survivor/ 1 SK at this point:
Scenario 1: we end up with 4 town/2 mafia/ 1 survivor
Scenario 2: we end up with 3 town/2 mafia/ 1 survivor
Scenario 3: we end up with 3 town/1 mafia/ 1 survivor / 1 SK

Why would indie be likely to switch in scenario 3 but not scenario 2?


I think the following are true:

Scenario 1: Basically guaranteed town win. Town likely knows at least one mafia, and at worst has to guess between two people.

Scenario 2: If jimbob stays with Town, Town should win as long as they don't mislynch. If jimbob flips to scum, then scum+jimbob are guaranteed to win. Town has no way to kill anyone without jimbob here since they don't have the numbers to lynch. Even if they have a vig kill, jimbob can redirect it back to town.

Scenario 3: Most unpredictable scenario, IMHO. I think Town wins as long as Madge survives N4. IMHO, what's most likely to happen is this: jimbob sides with town, lynches one of mafia or SK (they're basically interchangeable). However, if Madge is dead, then Town can't prevent the NK. So it's 2-1-1. jimbob is kingmaker and can choose who wins. It's possible that mafia/SK/jimbob could align, but unlikely IMHO as mafia and SK have incompatible win conditions, whereas jimbob/Town have compatible ones and jimbob does not need to worry about getting caught in the crossfire.

Scenario 4: If two NKS are blocked, it's 3-2-1-1, but Madge is alive and can still roleblock. Town wins by lynching SK and hoping jimbob doesn't flip to scum. If one NK is blocked and it's 2-2-1-1, then it's degenerate with Scenario 3.

jimbob is kingmaker under virtually all circumstances, I think. IMHO he's more likely to flip in scenario 2 than 3 since siding with two other unaligned people is more unpredictable for him, whereas in scenario 2 he can guarantee a win if he flips (though he likely can if he stays with town, so *shrug*).

I suppose based on this, I should probably account for:

Scenario 4b: Mislynch, one NK goes through, but it's from the SK and s/he targets jimbob. Now it's 3-2-1 with SK as the only indie. If SK is lynched, then Mafia wins if Madge fails to roleblock the right person and town doesn't have a vig kill. Possibly coinflip game. If Mafia is lynched and a townie dies, then it's 2-1-1 or 1-1-1-1 and townies get to decide whether mafia or SK win. If both kills fail, then Town wins.

plytho wrote:Maybe I'm tunneling too much (I expect people in Gojoe mass replying "yes you are!") but this reads like LaserGuy is trying to clear his buddy adnapemit from suspicion by moving the focus to SK!Carlington and Sabrar pusher freezeblade.


I've been reading freezeblade as scum since D2. I don't see any reason to believe he isn't.

bessie wrote:N3 results would depend on the order of night actions. dimochka probably used these guidelines, but there is no guarantee.


Thanks for posting this.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:19 pm UTC

EBWOP:
If Mafia is lynched and a townie dies, then it's 2-1-1 or 1-1-1-1 and townies get to decide whether mafia or SK win. If both kills fail, then Town wins.


Should read 1-1-1 here of course.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby bessie » Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:46 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle, I’m pretty sure Carlington is the serial killer and adnapemit is mafia. adnapemit is still participating, so she probably has a vested interest in the game because she can still win. Carlington hasn’t even answered plytho’s questions.

Carlington, are you going to post or are we done here?

I feel better about freezeblade and I don’t think anyone needs to waste a night action on him.

I’ll be around tonight and will try to make another post, but 13 hours to deadline so I don’t want to wait for some brilliant insight that may never come.

Town-scum
bessie
Madge
plytho
freezeblade
jimbobmacdoodle
LaserGuy
adnapemit
Carlington

Sorry jimbobmacdoodle for again placing you so low in my list. It’s only because you can switch sides. If we both survive to end game I will leave town with you so that you can get a bonus win.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:17 am UTC

I don't think there's any harm in this if someone feels like finishing the day early.

Vote Carlington

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 28, 2017 5:41 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I don't think there's any harm in this if someone feels like finishing the day early.


I do think there is harm in this. I'd like Madge and jimbobmacdoodle to coordinate their actions before we hammer. If we hammer before they can coordinate they might pick the same target.
he him his

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby Madge » Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:11 am UTC

I'm of two minds about co-ordination.

I think it's useful for who is being targeted by what to be secret so scum can't coordinate. Especially if one of me or jimbob disagrees with the consensus scum picks and wants to target someone not mentioned (not to say my thoughts one way or the other, but if scum is hiding in the unsuspected, then we want them to be nervous too).

If jimbob feels strongly about coordinating then I will do what he says, otherwise I would prefer to err on the side of giving scum less information. It does mean if one of us dies during the night there will be confusion about who we targeted though.

is the below allowed?

Thought: I could take advantage of the fact our role PMs are revealed upon death and e.g. assign each player to a word, and announce that say the player who is assigned the "Nth" role in my role PM will be my target (or that does/doesn't appear in my role PM), allowing me to have a will (jimbob can do the same).
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby Carlington » Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:28 am UTC

All I meant was that it should be clear I targeted plytho. I wanted to leave the rest ambiguous in the hopes of not claiming to have a doctor power unnecessarily, as this would paint a target on my back.

As for vigging adnapemit, look at my three scummiest reads for that day. Sabrar was lynched already, so I picked between LaserGuy and adnapemit.
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doogly: Hands waving furiously.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby adnapemit » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:30 am UTC

unvote
Empress adnapemit "Nancy" "Time Panda"
[adnapemit|timepanda]
Does anyone actually read signatures?

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:05 am UTC

I'm happy to go with Madge's preference of no explicit co-ordination at this point.

I feel like Madge attempting to leverage her role PM in the way described would be breaking the spirit of the rules.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:20 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm happy to go with Madge's preference of no explicit co-ordination at this point.


I'm still convinced that coordinating would be better. We still have two investigating powers to keep pressure on the others. But if you both agree I can live with that. It would be a shame if we all have the same target though.
he him his

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby Madge » Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:49 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I feel like Madge attempting to leverage her role PM in the way described would be breaking the spirit of the rules.


Agreed... or at the very least is poking the mod enough to try and get him to censor my role PM reveal until the end of the game in retribution (i.e. reveal all the info but paraphrased).

I'll do what I think is best, and I'm sure jimbob will also do what he thinks is best. Rest assured I won't block jimbob.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 4 (The End is Near)

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:08 pm UTC

Vote: Carlington
he him his

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Night 4 (Down with Clergy!)

Postby dimochka » Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:27 pm UTC

With Lazarus gone, the townspeople seem to have found their voice and confidence once again.
"I saw the Sorcerer stay up way too late!" Exclaimed one.
"Wirt was hobbling where he shouldn't be!" Shouted another.
"The Ghost of Pepin is trying to avenge his death!" Added a third.

But in contrast to other days, the remaining members had been mostly in agreement as to whom to lynch. With two death reveals in the morning, the majority had decided that a serial killer is in town, and many fingers pointed towards Carlington. He had tried to defend himself early on, but towards the end of the day resigned to his fate. And so it was mutually agreed upon to drive a sword through his heart. Surprisingly, Gillian offered to do the honors; at this point, however, no one questioned anyone's morals or difficult decisions.

As Carlington lay dead, the villagers returned to their homes and rooms, hoping that the worst is truly behind them.


Final D4 Votals:
Carlington - 4 (bessie, freezeblade, LaserGuy, plytho)
Adnapemit - 1 (Jimbobmacdoodle)

Not Voting: everyone else

Carlington has been lynched. Alignment and role will be revealed at the start of the following day.

It is now night. Please send me all night actions by N4 deadline [Click here!] in 2 days. If you have the ability to communicate at night, you may begin to do so now; please do not send any further messages once deadline has been reached, even if I have not declared the start of the following day.

If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Night 4 (Down with Clergy!)

Postby dimochka » Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:28 am UTC

Please note that if you don't send a night action by the deadline, I will assume that you are planning to withhold it.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby dimochka » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:25 pm UTC

[i]The sun rose, and as usual the townspeople stumbled over to the (hopefully) dead body of Carlington. As one person removed the hood, everyone gasped - it was the face of Aidan, the Warrior, and the oldest son of the king.

"This is not going to end well for us," whispered Gillian, "and especially not for me."

However, at that moment, Aidan's skin simply evaporated away from the body, and all that remained is a skeletal body. Moreover, as Aidan's cloak fell down, a shiny crown rolled out of the hood.

"Is this... the king?" asked the Necromancer?
"Well, at the very least it WAS the King," smugly answered Wirt.
"So the King... killed his own son, and pretended to be him? That's beyond evil!" Exclaimed someone, clearly appalled.

Searching Aidan's room, the townspeople found the King's sword and jewels. It was also very clear that the sword was used, and not for the best of intentions.

Carlington is dead. He was King Leoric, The Skeleton King, a serial killer.

Spoiler:
Role: King Leoric, The Skeleton King
Description: Officially, you were the ruler of this land. All of Khanduras was yours, for you and the Order of the Light to rule. You were a just leader, with many allies and friends, even if Lazarus decided that Tristram, of all places, should be your seat of power. And was going well, or so you tried to make everyone around you believe. Meanwhile, you sensed the evil entering your soul, and battled against it as best you could. It was going to take more than an evil spirit to take away your life! And you were right.. in part. You kept your life, but not your sanity. And when you youngest son Albrecht disappeared, it was more than you could take. You will do anything to get him back, execute all who stand in your way and exorcise any who try to stop you. You will get your son back or leave no one standing!
Alignment: You are an independent survivor / SK and win when your faction is the only one alive, or this is inevitable.
Additional Information: As the Skeleton King, you had many loyal servants and were able to lure one of them under the guise of helping you find your lost child. The brave Warrior of Khanduras will not see the light of day again, as your bones now reside within his body.

Abilities:
- You've learned much from your servants - enough that you can take care of yourself... or at least attempt to. You are the Jack-of-All-Trades, and as such have access to a slew of one-shot powers, which include Watcher / Tracker / Role Cop / Doctor / Roleblocker / Vig.
- You control a kill action which you can use on any night. Note that controlling yourself in that sack of meat you're wearing is complicated, and therefore you cannot perform more than one action per night (either one of the JoAT actions or the kill).
- You still have access to your royal vault; there may be an opportunity for you to convince others to join your cause... for the right price. If you use your SK kill on an appropriate target / with the right circumstances, that individual will blindly join your quest.


"While we're cleaning this up, can someone to get Farnham? He's probably passed out by the tavern, as usual." Asked the Monk.

Wirt headed in the direction of the tavern, and then suddenly stopped. As he turned back towards the center of the town, it was clear that his face was white with horror.
"I don't think Farnham will be getting up from this resting place anytime soon."

Madge is dead. She was Farnham the Drunk, aligned with town.
Spoiler:
Role: Farnham the Drunk
Description: "They're here! The blood! They stab, and bite, and cleave, and it never ends! Oh why won't it end! The prince was never here, but the monster... they were everywhere... it was all his fault!" Your sanity isn't quite what it used to be, but at least you can tell friend from demon. You'll never forget those horrors...
Alignment: You are town and win when all threats to town are eliminated.

Abilities:
- You tend to wake up in the middle of the night in horror and scare everyone around you. Your cries for help, your banging on the wall, and your general behavior can seems so demon-like to many... as a result, you will appear as a demon to anyone visiting you at night.
- These demon attacks have been tough on everyone. And what's better than a drink or five to dull the pain / worries? Recently, you've been able to easily convince others to drink the night away with you. If you choose a target to get drunk with, you will roleblock that person for the night.


It was clear to everyone that Farnham didn't simply trip and fall. Evil powers did this. And so, their work was not yet over.

It is now Day 5. There are 6 people alive, 4 to lynch.
D4 Deadline [Click here!] in about 5 days.
Last edited by dimochka on Thu Mar 30, 2017 6:37 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:54 pm UTC

So, the Serial Killer is dead, and with them, yet another recruit power - that's three including the Survivor recruit! I'm really hoping that Carlington's recruit was either never successful or doesn't inherit the kill power.

I think it's best if I withhold my action claim for the time being. Who wants to go first? I think claims from adnapemit and LaserGuy should be first, personally and bessie last.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:55 pm UTC

EBWOP: I just realised I said THE Serial Killer, but I suppose there's a small chance there's another one out there, though I very much doubt it.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby plytho » Thu Mar 30, 2017 6:07 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I think it's best if I withhold my action claim for the time being. Who wants to go first? I think claims from adnapemit and LaserGuy should be first, personally and bessie last.


I agree. I'll wait for the other claims before I claim.
he him his

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:03 pm UTC

Okay, I'll go first.

I am scum.

I am 99% certain that Carlington did not recruit:
-N1 he killed SirGabriel (Sabrar targeted bessie, but was put in jail).
-N2 Carlington was roleblocked by Madge, and Sabrar killed SirGabriel (ahippo).
-N3 adnapemit killed Gopher and Carlington killed SDK, as you know, and then Carlington was lynched.
So there isn't really any room for him to recruit unless the N2 roleblock inexplicably failed.

One of the two remaining scum players has a strongman kill available. This kill cannot be blocked or redirected. If you lynch the wrong one of us, then the strongman will kill jimbob tonight. If jimbob (and bessie, if she wishes to do so) joins with us, we will ensure he lives to the end of the game and get his (their) win.

Vote freezeblade.

(Obviously my bulletproof/vig claim was total BS and you all rightly called me on it).

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby plytho » Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:43 pm UTC

I can say I'm a bit bummed about the lack of coordination last night.

I do think that if scum has strongman power they used it last night to kill our roleblocker and they're bluffing now. If they didn't use it last night they had a big risk of being blocked/redirected and town getting absolute majority today.
he him his

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby freezeblade » Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:55 pm UTC

plytho wrote:I do think that if scum has strongman power they used it last night to kill our roleblocker and they're bluffing now.


This is exactly my thought. I am also >90% sure that Adnapemit is our second scum, and that they coordinated so that the lease valuable of the two scum left claimed, so that means I'm going to vote the other.

vote: Adnapemit
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby freezeblade » Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:58 pm UTC

EBWOP: *the least valuable
Belial wrote:I am not even in the same country code as "the mood for this shit."

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:27 pm UTC

@LaserGuy, who performed the kill last night?

Also @LaserGuy - if I choose not to side with you today, and you kill me, you cannot win. However, if one of you is lynched, you can still ain with me. Just saying.

Also, I dislike being blackmailed. I'm almost tempted to take the risk and side with town because of this!
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:29 pm UTC

EBWOP: you can still win with me
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby bessie » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:42 pm UTC

I only have a few minutes. Am I waiting for adnapemit to claim first?

I won't have time to think about this until tonight. jimbob, whatever you decide I don't think you should lynch freezeblade.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:46 pm UTC

bessie wrote:I only have a few minutes. Am I waiting for adnapemit to claim first?
Please do wait.

Why should I not support lynching freezeblade specifically?
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:34 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@LaserGuy, who performed the kill last night?


I did. I imagine that one of either bessie or plytho will be able to confirm.

Also @LaserGuy - if I choose not to side with you today, and you kill me, you cannot win. However, if one of you is lynched, you can still ain with me. Just saying.


That's true, but we don't have any incentive to convince you to join us tomorrow. If one of us gets lynched and we kill a townie, then you and the remaining townies can lynch our last player without recourse.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby bessie » Fri Mar 31, 2017 3:27 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:-N1 he killed SirGabriel (Sabrar targeted bessie, but was put in jail).
-N2 Carlington was roleblocked by Madge, and Sabrar killed SirGabriel (ahippo).
I am thinking about this. I’m not sure I completely believe these claims.

LaserGuy wrote:One of the two remaining scum players has a strongman kill available.
Ditto.

LaserGuy wrote:If jimbob (and bessie, if she wishes to do so) joins with us, we will ensure he lives to the end of the game and get his (their) win.
AFAIK, I’m town, and can’t win with mafia.

LaserGuy wrote:(Obviously my bulletproof/vig claim was total BS and you all rightly called me on it).
Perhaps. I’m not completely discounting your original claim yet.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Why should I not support lynching freezeblade specifically?
For your own protection. freezeblade has not made a full claim. Scum can’t afford to use their theoretical strongman kill on you without knowing if they need it to kill freezeblade.

More later after adnapemit claims.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 5 (The King is Dead!)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:53 am UTC

An idle thought whilst waiting for adnapemit to claim: I suspect I was Carlington's recruitable, or Znirk. I like the idea that Znirk could have been recruited by three different factions, but I also like the idea that the two survivors could each be recruited to one faction or could mutually protect each other from recruitment.

Bessie makes an interesting point. However, I don't think it matters today, as assuming I support scum, and everybody votes, it should be a No Lynch situation.
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