jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Town, why should I side with you?
I’ve been thinking about this, and I think it is in your best interests to either lynch scum today, or to no lynch but ultimately side with town. Here are the reasons as I see them.
adnapemit wrote:It's not blackmail it's explaining our strategy. You help us win, we don't need to kill you and you guarantee your win.
I disagree that they won’t need to eventually kill you (more below).
dimochka wrote:Mafia Win Condition:
You are scum and win when all factions opposing you are eliminated or this outcome is inevitable.
The scum win is not inevitable until they control the lynch, because even if you support them today, you can change sides at any time. Assuming no powers (except your redirect) and we no lynch today:
N5: 3-2-1, mafia kills town without your interference. They do not have a choice to kill you.
D6: 2-2-1, you side with mafia and lynch town. This would be your choice to continue to support them, although they may have some leverage if they still claim a strongman (more on this below).
N6: 1-2-1, they would need to rely on your support to ensure they kill town. You can try to redirect the kill to mafia. It would be better play for them to attempt to kill you, for a guaranteed scum win, than to take a chance of going to D7 with 1-1-1.
So jimbob, I think it is in your best interests to try to ensure there are not two scum alive tomorrow, and D6 starts at 3-1-1.
Reminder that adnapemit said this:
adnapemit wrote: Left alive you could redirect our kills so we need to kill you because you are our biggest threat (Scum are still unlikely to win in this scenario but at least we survive one more night).
And back to where I said they may have a way to have leverage over you tomorrow, there’s this:
adnapemit wrote:If we get no-lynch today (or lynch freezeblade if a town fails create a tie) we confirm you are not a threat and have no reason to target you.
Scum kills plytho.
We either win or we lynch freezeblade tomorrow and win.
Mafia wouldn’t need a strongman to kill plytho. They would have it available tomorrow to threaten jimbob again. This makes me think they don’t really have a strongman or they are trying to trick jimbob into going along with them today so they have the strongman available tomorrow to use on him (see my N6 analysis above).
Other things LaserGuy and adnapemit have said that make me not believe they are telling the truth.
LaserGuy wrote: If jimbob (and bessie, if she wishes to do so) joins with us, we will ensure he lives to the end of the game and get his (their) win.
I can’t win with mafia, and you know it. Why would you even offer this, except to mislead jimbob? (I had commented on this before.)
adnapemit wrote:As LaserGuy said:
-Sabrar targeted bessie(failed).
-Sabrar killed SirGabriel (ahippo).
-N3 adnapemit killed Gopher
adnapemit wrote:Sabrar tried to use recruit on bessie. We haven't used any other abilities.
I don’t believe this (as I already said twice), and I would like to more thoroughly explain.
To begin with, I really don’t believe Sabrar tried to recruit me. There is nothing in my D1 content that shows I had any indication that I thought I was recruitable. If anyone was hinting they were recruitable on D1, my guess would have been Madge or ahippo. Next, it doesn’t make sense that Sabrar tried to kill me because there is even less to indicate that I was in any way the biggest threat (or any threat) to the scum team. I liked LaserGuy and adnapemit, and found Sabrar scummy, but so did others. And there was some indication I would be going after Carlington on D2.
I can see a reason Sabrar may have targeted ahippo/SirGabriel N2. But I am not completely convinced because there is a possible SirG missing N2 action (my guess is ahippo made a weapon on N1 and if he tried to use it N2 all kills would be simultaneous).
Anyway I don’t see any reason for Sabrar to fear me or recruit me. Unless he really didn’t like something in my initial setup spec.
bessie wrote:here’s my initial setup spec for a generic 15 player game.
9 Town (cop, doctor, tracker, watcher, vigilante, PGO, bodyguard, universal backup, and jack of all trades, one of which is a miller)
3 Mafia (godfather/roleblocker, ninja, strongman)
1 Mafia supporter (recruitable)
1 Serial killer
1 lyncher or other independent
That reminds me, LaserGuy and adnapemit do not have current power claims. Which leads me to an updated setup spec at game start, before alignments were assigned
. Player names added for convenience.
JustDanceUnlimited, Cain the Elder, alignment cop/1-shot seer
SirGabriel , Pepin the Healer, doctor
ahippo/SirGabriel, Griswold the Blacksmith, bodyguard/1-shot vigilante
mpolo/SDK, Ogden the Tavern Owner, mason/ jailer (limited)
Gopher of Pern, Lester the Farmer, D1 commuter/universal backup
Madge, Farnham the Drunk, miller/roleblocker
Znirk, Rogue, tracker
Carlington, Warrior of Khanduras, JOAT
bessie, Gillian the Barmaid, mason/watcher
Plytho, Bard, follower
freezeblade, Monk of the Brotherhood, 1-shot commuter/1-shot PGO
jimbobmacdoodle, Wirt the Peg-Legged Boy, redirector
Sabrar, Adria the Witch, ninja/recruiter (?)
adnapemit, Sorcerer of Vizjerei, ?
LaserGuy, Barbarian, ?
Sabrar’s role is still bothering me. I can’t figure out what Adria’s power would have been. Rolestopper would be my first guess, with other possibilities friendly neighbor/innocent child.
So what’s left from likely powers for adnapemit and LaserGuy?
LaserGuy wrote:(Obviously my bulletproof/vig claim was total BS and you all rightly called me on it).
I think that LaserGuy's claim that his original claim was BS was interesting, and it was an odd time to make such a claim. LaserGuy claimed bulletproof here
before he knew he was jailed N2 and N3. He might really be bulletproof.
For adnapemit, 1-shot vigilante? Role cop? Motion detector? I don’t know yet. Jimbob, did you redirect adnapemit to LaserGuy last night?
LaserGuy wrote:One of the two remaining scum players has a strongman kill available. This kill cannot be blocked or redirected.
Question: Are we sure the strongman kill can’t be redirected?
If there is a strongman, here’s some weird wording suggesting adnapemit is the strongman.
plytho wrote:I do think that if scum has strongman power they used it last night to kill our roleblocker and they're bluffing now.
Since I'm not dead, I think this might suggest everyone targeted me last night. Also I will confirm I did not perform the kill. I think Madge must have either targeted me or failed to submit a night action.
LaserGuy wrote:I had to take the kill last night regardless of who is the strongman. jimbob had said he was redirecting adnapemit... if her kill had punched through his redirect, then he'd know who the strongman is.
I already expressed my skepticism with the second statement in a previous post.
Here’s where I don’t believe LaserGuy is telling the truth, with my reasons following.
LaserGuy wrote:Yes, we have a strongman. Our roles were apparently not randomized in the same way that yours were. When we discussed this on D3, I outlined my theory for how I think the roles were determined, which is consistent with our abilities.
(underlining mine) I’m going to object to this, as I did on D3. This is not how dimochka claimed, in bold
, he set up the game.
From the signup thread:
Bastardry: Low to Medium. You may not be told everything, but there will be no lying whatsoever.
From the game thread:
dimochka wrote:Note: The only use of RNG in this game was to allocate player alignments. Any role could be town / scum / something else.
dimochka wrote:If I felt that the setup was grossly unbalanced, I probably would have done some something to adjust. I'm not saying that it's balanced or unbalanced now, but I would not be comfortable picking a likely winning / losing faction at this point.
dimochka wrote:Since I promised a newbie-friendly game, I'll explain a bit more. Alignments were allocated 100% randomly, and players assigned to a given role were also random. As far as the connection between powers and role - they weren't completely random but I took quite a bit of creative freedom with those, AND they were allocated BEFORE alignment. So if for instance I could have decided that Ogden's Wife (used as an example since she's dead in my flavor; not in the video game) was a healer, watcher / tracker, Ogden's bodyguard, or a million other things. That also DOES NOT prevent her from from being anti-town at the same time.
LaserGuy and I have been through this before. I started to make a list of all the relevant quotes, but it was just a long rehash of what has already been said. If anyone's interested, let me know and I will post the whole thing. This was the last one:
LaserGuy wrote: bessie wrote:
LaserGuy, your setup ideas are similar to my own. As for neutrals being town or demon, all we know is that Znirk was a demon and jimbob claims to be human. What I don’t agree with is what I quoted earlier (underlining mine):
LaserGuy wrote:As far my vote is concerned, a lot of it came down to flavor. As I mentioned in an earlier post, there is pretty good evidence (and supported by ahippo's recent death, actually) that the flavor and abilities of the character from the game fairly closely aligns to their role, alignment, and abilities, despite dimochka's comments to the contrary.
Show me somewhere where dimochka made a comment about the setup that contradicts any game content revealed so far. Whatever dimochka did with the mafia (and other non-town) roles is speculation, or maybe you know something I don’t know.
That was mostly made in reference to the "random alignment" business. The townie characters that have flipped have all been humans with townie roles that fit with the flavor. Znirk's is somewhat more ambiguous, admittedly. So while I think any character could in principle be scum, I think that the human will be replaced with a demon aspect (leaving a falseclaim, presumably), to avoid the "Diablo is town" nonsense... which I feel that dimochka was, at very least, deliberately coy about. I think the initial statement "Note: The only use of RNG in this game was to allocate player alignments. Any role could be town / scum / something else" is, in this context, somewhat misleading.
As far as scum powers, I don't have anything useful to claim here, at least among the townie roles that we've seen so far, I have to imagine that if any of them ended up as scum they'd probably have needed to be rewritten (I know people have mentioned one game where the cop was scum, so maybe not that role I suppose).
The way I see it is that LaserGuy keeps misrepresenting the setup, which directly contradicts mod statements in bold. Strongman is a role that is only useful to mafia and it doesn’t make sense that dimochka included it in his initial setup.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I very much doubt it makes any difference to my overall victory whether bessie lives or not, but just in case, I'd prefer bessie to survive, unless I might die instead.
Although I am still skeptical that there are any secondary win conditions, I reread my role PM, and your name is in it, and so is the desire to leave town, but they are not in the same sentence. Does Wirt want to go to Caldeum too?