Diablo Mafia - Day 6 (The End)

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Sabrar
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:03 am UTC

Bits and pieces before work.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:1) Why would I draw attention so much to Znirk (and myself), if Znirk is the cult leader, before any real pressure was put on him?
There was already significant pressure on Znirk because of D1.
bessie wrote:Why use WoT1 as an example of my content?
Because as you yourself have said that is one of the few examples of you being scum so it can provide a counterpoint to your townie content.
bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - I don't think I've seen any previous examples of this ability in the 2 years that I've been playing or following.
I couldn’t find the question to which this is a reply. Is it about your night conversation?
That was most likely to my comment here:
Sabrar wrote:Would be extremely helpful if they could point out a similar ability in a previous game on this forum

If nobody changes their votes then Znirk has the option to NL or to lynch Carlington, I assume he would go for the latter. I have Madge and bessie as probably town, scum!jimbob might honestly push SK!Carlington so I'm fine with that choice as I already had my reservations about his content.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Carlington » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:28 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Carlington, given that Madge is alive, isn't your point moot? Whether it worked or not, we know that Madge was targeted by SirGabriel the night he died.
Sabrar wrote:
@Carlington: I might be misunderstanding you, please clarify. Do you think that SirGabriel's action itself was not successful (e.g. he was roleblocked), or that his action did not have any impact on the results (i.e. no one tried to kill Madge)?
Sabrar wrote:
Carlington wrote:So unless we do have some sort of alternating or conditional kill (or more than one doctor/roleblocker), that means the kills collided (unlikely) or one was withheld (why?)
Dismisses successful roleblock or doctor as an explanation, without giving reason. Later he lists that as a possibility. Still later he goes back to stating he doesn't think SirGabriel's action was successful. What gives?
I think it's a possibility sure, my only point I was trying to make out of any of that was that I didn't like how quick players were to assume the doctor action was successful. Looking at it again, though, I'm coming to realise that the entire train of thought was based around a particular moment of derp (it relies on kills resolving before doctor actions, which is...well, silly.)

Carlington wrote:My basis is that the townier you look, the more likely you are to draw the NK. If you're town, this is bad because town loses a player.
Scum kills someone every night, most likely Town. How is this any different? Plus if you're townie enough Doctor might protect you or scum might not kill you because they think s/he will. Plus if you're townie you won't get lynched. I just don't understand your argument here.
It's entirely possible that there's something about my role that makes me cautious about attracting the attention of scum, which may indeed be influencing my answer to this question. Especially now, given the death of the doctor, I feel somewhat justified in being a little nervy at the prospect.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Carlington - do you believe Znirk might be scum (other than cult)? What percentage likelihood would you say Znirk is a cult? Are you saying you are willing to sacrifice an indie to possibly get a confirmed town?
Answers in order asked: I certainly think something odd is going on with Znirk, but right now I am at an utter loss as to what. 50/50 odds of being a cult seem too high, but I don't want to rule it out. And finally, absolutely. Indies are in no way bound to help us achieve our wincon, nor we theirs. I acknowledge it might be a bit of a dick move, but nonetheless I'd do it.

bessie wrote:
Carlington wrote: As for NK targets, SK needs to try not to hit too many scum, otherwise when the game doesn't end they are a lone wolf against town. Scum, however, probably wants to vary their targets depending on how they all are being read currently - if they're being picked up as scum, they want to target folks from neutral and town ends of people lists so as to avoid narrowing the field of lynch candidates to themselves. If they're broadly regarded as towny, kill off the scummy end of the list and leave town with no scum reads to vote for.
If both SK and mafia generally targets neutral/townie players, then what do you find odd about the choice of SirGabriel for the night kill if he was neutral on most people’s lists (town on yours, scum on GoP’s)?
I said I was confused, which was perhaps not understood the way I thought it was. What I mean to say is, SirGabriel's death led me to wonder about what made him the target. Taking my ideas about optimal targeting as read, and assuming optimal scum, then we can work back and conclude the following: If SirG was killed by mafia, then many town members have mafia accurately at the scummy end of their reads lists; if SirG was killed by SK, we can't conclude as much - SK kills can be treated as effectively random, with a bias towards preserving factional balance. As for the odd wording and claims of confusion, I blame the stream-of-consciousness nature of my posting at that time - I was confused when I made the post, but I was also still trying to work it out when I made the post; it was a work in progress.

Carlington wrote:Also, I only provided reads on people I had things to say about. The rest of the information there is given as a reference for my thoughts at this time, but I didn't see the sense in listing off a whole bunch of "neutral/slightly town" "neutral/slightly scum" when they won't have any bearing anyway.
So you read almost everyone as neutral, fine, but that's not helpful tomorrow if town!you is night killed. Please provide an ordered list, town to scum. Include every player that is alive (and by alive I mean everyone who is playing D2). No groupings. Your name at one end, your scummiest read at the other end, and everyone else, one per line, in between. If you need an example, see the end of this post.
I'll give it a whirl, because it seems like it'll be helpful to you and others in town. That said, I find it a bit confronting to be told so matter-of-factly to play a certain way.

Town
Carlington
Madge
SirG
bessie
LaserGuy
adnapemit
mpolo
freezeblade
Sabrar
GoP
plytho
jimbob
Znirk
Scum
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:04 am UTC

unvote

Not happy with a tie. Might come back and re-vote. We'll see if I have time. Making some doughnuts and cupcakes and stuff.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:21 am UTC

Madge wrote:I think Freezeblade's observations were better, I personally am on the side of reads lists being kind of terrible - you can produce a lot of content by summarising peoples' actions, so it looks good, and it takes a long time, but does it really tell you something?? Probably? Maybe? I never feel smarter or more informed after doing them. So that's likely just my personal bias.

I think part of the point of reads lists (or town to scum lists) is having something about everyone for reference after you flip. It's more a tool to force inconsistencies onto scum than to feel more informed yourself.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:1) Why would I draw attention so much to Znirk (and myself), if Znirk is the cult leader, before any real pressure was put on him?
2) Why would Znirk recruit a player who was actively attacking him for most of D1, if it was going to be obvious that my opinion changed the next day?
3) Why would Znirk bother to claim that I am non-scum and bring up the mutual PM point, when it would have been easier and less suspicious to simply go with what I had claimed and nothing else?


jimbob makes some good points.
I'm becoming more convinced that Znirkbob are telling the truth. I'd say 75% true indie/townish, 25% shenanigans.
I don't feel like lynching either of them for now. I look forward to their results tomorrow.

Looking at the remaining lynch candidates I'm not reading Sabrar as scummy as D1. That leaves Carlington. As Madge mentioned Carlington is similar to Freezeblade. My gut feeling is reading Freezeblade as scummier but I can live with lynching Carlington.

@Carlington: You moved me from town in your reads list to top-3 scum in your town to scum in your last post, can you explain why?

Unvote

Vote: Carlington

I hope Madge is back soon to break the tie.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:47 am UTC

Vote: Carlington

Just popped on while the dough for my donuts is rising, and sure, I'll put my vote back.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Carlington » Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:52 am UTC

plytho wrote:@Carlington: You moved me from town in your reads list to top-3 scum in your town to scum in your last post, can you explain why?

Absolutely. It's because I was told not to group any people together, everyone has to be on their own separate line on the list. In reality, there is practically no difference in my read on anyone on the list from bessie to plytho inclusive. Unfortunately, the strictly-ordered town to scum list ends up in me looking at a whole bloc of "really nothing overly scummy stands out to me" which leads to tiny things like typing "mislynch" instead of "no lynch" being inflated into this huge effect.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby bessie » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:46 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Because as you yourself have said that is one of the few examples of you being scum so it can provide a counterpoint to your townie content.
Ok, I thought you were commenting about the quality of my content in general, not looking for a comparison to a scum game.

Madge wrote:I think Freezeblade's observations were better, I personally am on the side of reads lists being kind of terrible - you can produce a lot of content by summarising peoples' actions, so it looks good, and it takes a long time, but does it really tell you something?? Probably? Maybe? I never feel smarter or more informed after doing them. So that's likely just my personal bias.
They are useless if they're just summaries of facts with absolutely no opinions. It's like, fine, you read the thread, but what do you think about it? It can be difficult to draw opinions from people for whatever reasons (time constraints, they're scum, etc). That's why I push people for ordered lists with no groupings. It's quick and it forces you to make a judgement on everyone, even if it's just in relation to everyone else.

Carlington wrote:I'll give it a whirl, because it seems like it'll be helpful to you and others in town. That said, I find it a bit confronting to be told so matter-of-factly to play a certain way.

Carlington wrote:Absolutely. It's because I was told not to group any people together, everyone has to be on their own separate line on the list. In reality, there is practically no difference in my read on anyone on the list from bessie to plytho inclusive. Unfortunately, the strictly-ordered town to scum list ends up in me looking at a whole bloc of "really nothing overly scummy stands out to me" which leads to tiny things like typing "mislynch" instead of "no lynch" being inflated into this huge effect.

So the only reason you made a town-scum list is because someone bullied you to do it, not because you have a desire to help town? I think you’ve been around long enough to know why I asked for the list. And you have been evasive enough in your previous replies to me that I wanted to be very clear as to what I wanted, so that there was no misunderstanding, with deadline so close.

Carlington, off topic.
Spoiler:
Please don’t take this personally. To me being confrontational is just part of the game, but I think I may be the one with the problem because lately I have had to apologize in every game to someone for being rude. I’m actually laughing at that second quote because it is something I totally would have said. I’ve been informed recently by my boss that I’m passive aggressive to others and I need to knock it off, to which he got a long detailed reply about why I’m not the one with the problem, thus proving his point, but that’s another story…

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby freezeblade » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:26 pm UTC

I'm finding this "Day ending just after weekend IRL" thing very difficult, as I can only really keep up during working hours. I spend my day sitting in front of a screen all week, so I try to stay away from the screen on weekends. It seems so much activity happens on a weekend, so I end up with lots of catching up to do...then before I can post to analyze it, or even absorb it, the day is over.

That said, before we're over for the day, my vote stays where it is, I haven't ready the last page yet, but I'm going to try to skim before I post this.

Here's a quick up-down ranking. from what I'm reading though page 9.

Town (Or town-aligned/Pro-town)
bessie - Reads a lot like how they post when town in previous experiences with them
Madge - I'll believe the miller post unless something pops up otherwise
Gopher of Pern - meta-read pretty townie, feels townie of the two in feud with Sabrar
plytho - not much of a read, gut-reaction-wise that is.
mpolo - pretty neutral, acting pretty similar to town in other games, but a good player so who knows, re-read needed.
SirGabriel - ditto
Carlington - Hard to get a read, pretty dead-center neutral
adnapemit - out of the "center pack" the scummiest, imho.
Znirk - I'd be ok with this lynch, as I'm still pretty iffy about the whole thing, says is town-aligned for now, but for how long?
LaserGuy - Could just be lurky-feeling because claims newbie, and it is intimidating. Possible later lynch, if other better candidates don't present themselves
JimBob - Fishy feeling about the stuff with Znirk, but feels scummier of the two
Sabrar - Where I'm voting, see earlier comments
Scum (or scum aligned/pro-scum)
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Znirk » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:32 pm UTC

Spoiler:
Well, so much for my plan to provide better content on day 2. I got called in to work an extra 4 hours after a long weekend of doing enjoyable but emotionally draining stuff; now running on residual energy waiting for the crash. Sorry, everyone.
(Anyone may read, spoilered because not particularly relevant to the game)

Briefly, I don't particularly want carlington dead, but I appreciate the me-not-getting-lynched aspect of that course of action.

My (unfortunately impressionistic) list:
Definitely scum: nobody
More likely scum than not: Sabrar, Plytho, Laserguy
Strange but not necessarily wrong: Carlington, Freezeblade
Dunno: Gopher, Adnapemit, Mpolo
Probably fine: Bessie
Likely good guys and guyettes (#internationalwomensday): Jimbob, Madge

But anyway, survivor:

Vote Carlington

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:45 pm UTC

Phone-posting just to get one or two things down before deadline. I'll try to keep monitoring the thread up until deadline.

@bessie - I don't recall you suggesting Carlington as a Serial Killer candidate before my reads list, and I might be misinterpreting things now, so just to be clear, do you believe Carlington to be a Serial Killer? If so, for how long?

@Sabrar/bessie - yes, the response you refer to is as Sabrar suggested (can't link due to phone-posting).

Dimochka responded to my question, but did not give an example that matched the interaction Znirk and I had
I'm somewhat disappointed by lack of responses to some of my post-reads comments, but it might be just because of it being Monday.

I haven't seen anything in Carlington's comments that persuade me away from my vote.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby freezeblade » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:08 pm UTC

Unofficial Votals:
Carlington - 5 (bessie, Jimbobmacdoodle, plytho, Madge, Znirk)
Znirk - 3 (SirGabriel, Carlington, LaserGuy)
Sabrar - 2 (Freezeblade, Gopher of Pern)
Jimbobmacdoodle - 2 (Sabrar, adnapemit)

not voting: mpolo

I find what essentially seems to be "lurker lynch 2: electric boogloo" troubling. I'd prefer any of the other wagons, but my vote isn't going to change that.

unvote
vote: Znirk

Of the top two, I'd prefer to lynch the indie who possibly could not be town-aligned vs. a lurker again. If someone swoops in to tie it up last minute I'd be pretty suspicious of them D3, as previously discussed.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:14 pm UTC

I'm not completely opposed to a Carlington lynch, since the arguments that he could be SK are plausible, but if Znirk is cult leader, lynching him today could end the threat of cult permanently (assuming Znirk was the only cult member at the beginning of the game and that the recruit power dies with him); waiting longer would mean we have to worry about people who may have switched alignments overnight. If we had confirmed SK!Carlington and CultLeader!Znirk, I would vote for Carlington, but I think the case against Znirk is stronger, and we have more to lose from a mislynch of town!Carlington than if we lynch survivor!Znirk.

Znirk wrote:My (unfortunately impressionistic) list:
Definitely scum: nobody
More likely scum than not: Sabrar, Plytho, Laserguy
Strange but not necessarily wrong: Carlington, Freezeblade
Dunno: Gopher, Adnapemit, Mpolo
Probably fine: Bessie
Likely good guys and guyettes (#internationalwomensday): Jimbob, Madge

Is there a reason I'm not on the list?

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:27 pm UTC

I'm changing my mind too much but. I guess I prefer the worst case of indie lynch to worst case town lynch.

unvote

Vote: Znirk

Now it should be 5 Znirk - 4 Carlington right?
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:30 pm UTC

FoS freezeblade for calling the Carlington lynch a lurker lynch, when I'm pretty certain most people are voting for him for reasons other than lurking (see my reads list for example).
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:54 pm UTC

I've been debating whether to say this, but given a Znirk lynch seems likely, I might as well. If Znirk is lynched, don't bother targeting me tonight. It will be clear come the morning why I said this.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Znirk » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:56 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:I'm not completely opposed to a Carlington lynch, since the arguments that he could be SK are plausible, but if Znirk is cult leader, lynching him today could end the threat of cult permanently (assuming Znirk was the only cult member at the beginning of the game and that the recruit power dies with him); waiting longer would mean we have to worry about people who may have switched alignments overnight. If we had confirmed SK!Carlington and CultLeader!Znirk, I would vote for Carlington, but I think the case against Znirk is stronger, and we have more to lose from a mislynch of town!Carlington than if we lynch survivor!Znirk.

Znirk wrote:My (unfortunately impressionistic) list:
Definitely scum: nobody
More likely scum than not: Sabrar, Plytho, Laserguy
Strange but not necessarily wrong: Carlington, Freezeblade
Dunno: Gopher, Adnapemit, Mpolo
Probably fine: Bessie
Likely good guys and guyettes (#internationalwomensday): Jimbob, Madge

Is there a reason I'm not on the list?

Yes, me not paying attention. Since you obviously didn't exactly stand out to me, you go in the dunno category.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:03 pm UTC

I'd rather lynch Carlington than Znirk, but seeing as voting for Carlington will tie the votals, I'm going to let them stand.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Night 2 (Choices, Choices...)

Postby dimochka » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:12 pm UTC

The second day did not bring much clarity to the locals. Their beloved healer was murdered, and Cain had proven to be simply the village elder.
"It's not enough that the demons are killing us; now we are killing each other," grumbled Griswold.
"Fear not," exclaimed the Warrior (who was secretly - or so he thought, while everyone immediately recognized him - King Leoric's older son), "we shall find these demons and punish them for what they've made us do!"
But not everyone believed him. Accusations were tossed by nearly everyone and at nearly everyone else, so that at one point it seemed half the town would lynch the other half. However, as the day neared, two candidates truly stood out - Znirk and Carlington.
"We nearly lynched Znirk yesterday, but instead went for poor Cain, and look where that got us," shouted one of the villagers.
"True, but Carlington has been avoiding discussion throughout the day, only adding his thoughts when he saw fitting. Much too suspicious in my opinion," replied another.

As the sun passed the horizon and there were but minutes till the darkness returned, the villagers finally made the contested decision to lynch Znirk. After all, he claimed to be a demon of the underworld, but who supposedly just wanted to leave this cursed place behind? And Znirk closely resembled a Rogue? Too many things did not align. So the villagers tied a heavy rock to Znirk's neck and threw him in the river to the south of town. Hopefully tomorrow would be a better day.


Final D2 Votals (I think):
Sabrar - 1 (Gopher of Pern)
Carlington - 4 (bessie, Jimbobmacdoodle, Madge, Znirk)
Znirk - 5 (SirGabriel, Carlington, LaserGuy, Freezeblade, plytho)
Jimbobmacdoodle - 2 (Sabrar, adnapemit)

Not Voting: mpolo (figuring this out as we speak.)

Znirk has been lynched. Alignment and role will be revealed at the start of the following day.

It is now night. Please send me all night actions by N2 deadline [Click here!] in 2 days. If you have the ability to communicate at night, you may begin to do so now; please do not send any further messages once deadline has been reached, even if I have not declared the start of the following day.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Night 2 (Choices, Choices...)

Postby dimochka » Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:34 pm UTC

SDK is replacing mpolo, effective immediately.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Night 2 (Choices, Choices...)

Postby dimochka » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:49 pm UTC

I just realized that I'm going to be on a pretty long flight tomorrow (and then arrive at a really ridiculous time and need to get sleep). So apologies to everyone, but I'm extending the deadline by 20 hours. It will now be 8am PST on 3/16. Link here.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby dimochka » Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:55 pm UTC

By the time the sun was up, most of the villagers were on their feet. Bloodshot eyes were the norm rather than the exception; unkempt clothes were visible everywhere, and no one seemed to care.

"Is everyone here? Where is Wirt?", someone shouted.
"Present," grumbled Wirt as he limped from around the building.
"Well, let's not waste time and find if we were right in our decision last night then," announced Ogden.

The group walked over to the mouth of the river, where Znirk's body laid unmoving. The body was clearly demonic, but very much at peace. The Sorcerer was the first one to notice the pouch attached to Znirk's waist. Inside was a note, mostly destroyed from the water in the river. But the part that was visible read:

"... must escape this hell, planning... travel, see the wo... stop the killin.."

It seemed that Znirk really did not wish the town be harmed.


Znirk (Red Vex) was lynched and is dead. He was a survivor.
Spoiler:
Role: Red Vex
Description: There's not much you remember of your old life. Many lovers, and therefore many haters. One too many haters. And so you traded your soul away to come back to Tristram and avenge your death... only to find that he fell into the well while drunk and drowned. You're not really sure what's next. You could return to Lazarus and be his concubine, but that seems a bit mundane. With your new powers and opportunity for life, maybe you should go and explore the world!
Alignment: You are a survivor and you win as long as you live to the end.
Additional Information: Your twin sister looked just like you, and yet was so different. So different in fact that while you intimately got to know the townspeople, she left the family and became a Rogue of the Sisterhood of the Sightless Eye. With the magic that brought you back, you look just like yourself once again, and coincidentally just like her.

Abilities:
- While you learned little from your sister, you two went hunting together a few times with your parents. You two quickly found your strength - she in the bow and arrow, you in stealth and tracking. While stealth is not exactly something you excelled at given your career choice, your tracking skills had gotten much better in return. You possess the tracker power, enabling you to watch a target on any night and see where he went or whom he visited.

"Wait, everyone, wait," shouted someone, "look at the ring in its finger - I've seen this before. Friends often exchange these rings when they commit to help each other out, no matter the costs! There must have been someone here friends with this...creature."

"Yes, it's my ring. I tried to tell you as much but you refused to listen," answered Wirt.


Znirk's win condition changed during the game. It is spoilered below.
Spoiler:
Wirt and Red Vex - you do NOT have night chat, BUT you are now aware that you are both survivors and your win condition has been changed. You will now win as long as one of you survives till endgame.


This was an unfortunate incident, but what's done is done, and the villagers headed back to town. And it was then that they saw the body of their beloved blacksmith jammed in the doorway of his shop. A quick test confirmed that he was human and very dead.

SirGabriel - formerly ahippo - (Griswold the Blacksmith) is dead. He was aligned with town.
Spoiler:
Role: Griswold the Blacksmith
Description: Ah the good old years when you were young, quick, and the center of attention... ok, maybe that was because of you skill in smithwork, but that still counts! You've served the Town of Tristram loyally, and even joined the army that went deep into the Cathedral to look for Leoric's son, Albrecht. That search was anything but futile - the horrors you saw down there could not be unseen. If it weren't for Farnham, you would have never returned. Now all you can do is continue crafting weapons for adventurers...
Alignment: You are town and win when all threats to town are eliminated.

Abilities:
- You are replaceable, and you know this well. As a result, you would not hesitate to sacrifice your life to save your friends. You have a bodyguard power and, should you choose to protect one of the townsfolk at night when they are targeted by a kill, you will take the fall instead.
- Your work with weapons and experience in the Catherdral makes you capable of facing the evil, though your leg prevents you from moving far from your shop. You have enough materials to craft one extra-sharp set of throwing axes, which act as a vig kill. Note that the process of making them takes an entire night and your full attention.


No one uttered a word as a few people picked up the body and carried it to the graveyard. It was clear that evil was among them, and no one could be trusted. However, with the process in place, all the people could do is continue trying to root this evil. For giving up now could mean the end of Tristram and subsequently the world.

It is now Day 3. There are 11 people alive, 6 to lynch.
D3 Deadline [Click here!] in about 5 days.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Znirk » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:17 pm UTC

An eerie voice is carried throught town on the north wind ...

Fine! I'm gonna build my own portal to hell them! With blackjack and hookers! In fact, forget the hell portal!

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:20 pm UTC

@jimbob: were you also Survivor at the beginning of the game or did your alignment change as a result of N1?

Looks like either there is no SK in the game (and therefore we have increased chances of a cult), or for 2 nights in a row one of the kills was prevented/withheld or they coincided. Or we have even/odd night SK and only 1 such instance occurred. At this point I would say not having an SK is the most likely scenario but not by much.

@SDK: please post your reads you made before knowing the N2 results, as well as any updated thoughts you have given the flips.

I haven't got any really useful results to claim for tonight.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:40 pm UTC

Voting timeline focusing on Znirk and Carlington:
Spoiler:
bessie votes Carlington to prod him.
SirGabriel votes Znirk believing him to be cult.
Carlington votes Znirk to gain info and because it's 'safe'.
LaserGuy votes Znirk because it's 'safe'.
jimbob votes Carlington believing him to be SK and to protect Znirk.
bessie leaves vote on Carlington as most scummy read.
Madge votes Carlington because he's a better lynch candidate than others.
Madge unvotes because of tie.
plytho votes for Carlington because he's a better lynch candidate than others.
Madge votes Carlington again.
Znirk votes Carlington because Survivor.
freezeblade votes Znirk because it's 'safe'.
plytho switches from Carlington to Znirk because it's 'safe'.
SirGabriel voted first for Znirk and he was the only one to provide actual reasoning. LaserGuy voted for Znirk when there was no train on Carlington. It is possible that freezeblade and/or plytho have voted for Znirk to save Carlington (though plytho probably wouldn't have voted him before that in this case because him switching back at the last minute is suspicious as hell). Therefore if Carlington is in a team of any kind (scum, Mason, etc) then his partner must be freezeblade in my opinion.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby freezeblade » Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:19 pm UTC

Heading to a meeting now, thoughts in a sec, but I am upset at this characterization:
[quote=sabrar]freezeblade votes Znirk because it's 'safe'.[/quote]
I voted for Znirk because looking at my scum-town list, he was the only one who had a chance of actually being lynched. I would have much preferred that you were lynched instead, but there was not enough voting for you for it to be practical that late in the day.

That said, seeing as how jimbob confirmed survivor, you're still #1 on my list.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:25 pm UTC

freezeblade wrote:Of the top two, I'd prefer to lynch the indie who possibly could not be town-aligned vs. a lurker again.
This is the same argument the others had for voting Znirk. This is the 'safe' option.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby plytho » Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:34 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I haven't got any really useful results to claim for tonight.


Me neither.

Seems like scum really doesn't like SirGabriel. How likely is it that he successfully used his bodyguard power?

Sabrar wrote:Looks like either there is no SK in the game (and therefore we have increased chances of a cult), or for 2 nights in a row one of the kills was prevented/withheld or they coincided. Or we have even/odd night SK and only 1 such instance occurred. At this point I would say not having an SK is the most likely scenario but not by much.


That would make JDU's kill counting power a red herring?
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:38 pm UTC

plytho wrote:That would make JDU's kill counting power a red herring?
Or possibly a way to confirm for us that no SK is present.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:45 pm UTC

Grr... Maybe people will trust me next time I make otherwise illogical claims...

Ok, time to clear up the mess Znirk and I's half truths and misinformation caused yesterday. As should be obvious, I am Wirt and a Survivor. I was Survivor from game start, hence my suspicion of Znirk D1, but our win conditions changed N1 to that shown in Znirk's flip, presumably because I targeted him, but I don't know that for certain. I wanted to try to dispel the suspicion on Znirk D2, but wasn't sure people would believe me if I claimed survivor as well. Unfortunately, the claim backfired a little. Znirk obviously agreed to go along with my lack of claim, although I was confused when he backed off the claim that I was not scum, since what you saw in his flip was the new win con we'd been given. Any more questions on the matter, I'm happy to answer.

I tried to redirect somebody, but I don't know if it had any affect. I will claim later, but I think it more beneficial to hear from others first. No, I did not target or redirect anyone to SirGabriel.

I think a Serial Killer is almost certain, the personally, for reasons of game balance. Otherwise, it would have been way too easy for Znirk and I to win. Neither town nor mafia have much reason to lynch or night kill me now as confirmed survivor, so only the presence of an unaligned player with a kill or lyncher with one of us as a target realistically is a threat. I'm assuming there's no cult, but even if there is, they have no reason to recruit me, from what I can tell, since presumably I can win with them as well.

If a standard SK and Survivor are the only two alive, do both win or only the SK?

More thoughts later, after dinner, or in the morning, hopefully.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:58 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I think a Serial Killer is almost certain, the personally, for reasons of game balance. Otherwise, it would have been way too easy for Znirk and I to win. Neither town nor mafia have much reason to lynch or night kill me now as confirmed survivor, so only the presence of an unaligned player with a kill or lyncher with one of us as a target realistically is a threat.
I think this is faulty reasoning because it assumes as a given that you would find each-other and have your win-con changed. If that doesn't happen and one of you gets killed first (e.g. we lynch Znirk D1) then the other will look extremely suspicious when he also claims Survivor.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:00 pm UTC

So, is everyone convinced that Znirk is a survivor now? (Well, not really. They still have a chance at winning.)

And who has it out for SirGabriel? Two nights, two deaths. Although, this one could have been his own doing, protecting someone else. If only we had a tracker...oh, we lynched them.

We've also lost a one-shot vig. Who may have tipped the scales in towns favour.

Given what's happened, my top three scum picks are Sabrar, plytho, and Carlington. Plytho flip flopped a bit too much for my liking yesterday. Screams of scum attempting to look towny, but doesn't want their reads analysed too much. Sabrar, well, I've maintained that they are scum since day c1, and I still think that is likely. I'm less sure of Carlington, but the way the lynch went down may suggest scum buddies saving their own by jumping on the Znirk bandwagon. If so, freezeblade, plytho, and laserguy are likely scumbuddies.

Sabrar, I wonder why you discount laserguy. Although there was no bandwagon on Carlington at the time of his vote, it's still a 'safe' vote for a claimed survivor. There were other options (you had two votes at the time, Carlington had one. There excuse also screams like a scum tell, with no strong scummy leads, and something fishy with Znirk. In fact, I think I've just upped laserguy to potentially scummy.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby plytho » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:05 pm UTC

Some explanation for my voting: I first voted for my top scum pick (Freezeblade), when I realized that it was going to be between Carlington and Znirk I tried to figure out which one was more scummy but I could not figure it out. At one point I felt the Carlington = SK theory made sense so I voted for him. I kept trying to figure it out as the Znirbob scumbuddies theory also made sense and jimbob suspecting Carlington fit that theory. So I switched to Znirk as a 'safe' option.

Sabrar wrote:
plytho wrote:That would make JDU's kill counting power a red herring?
Or possibly a way to confirm for us that no SK is present.


Good point.
freezeblade wrote:I'm finding this "Day ending just after weekend IRL" thing very difficult, as I can only really keep up during working hours. I spend my day sitting in front of a screen all week, so I try to stay away from the screen on weekends. It seems so much activity happens on a weekend, so I end up with lots of catching up to do...then before I can post to analyze it, or even absorb it, the day is over.


I agree with this. I think it's solved now with the delayed night end.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:09 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Although there was no bandwagon on Carlington at the time of his vote, it's still a 'safe' vote for a claimed survivor.
Could you clarify this sentence for me? Neither LaserGuy nor Carlington are claimed Survivors.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:11 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Although there was no bandwagon on Carlington at the time of his vote, it's still a 'safe' vote for a claimed survivor.
Could you clarify this sentence for me? Neither LaserGuy nor Carlington are claimed Survivors.


Apologies, safe vote on a claimed survivor should be what I said. I was saying laserguy voted safe by voting for Znirk.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby dimochka » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:17 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If a standard SK and Survivor are the only two alive, do both win or only the SK?

No comment.
plytho wrote:
freezeblade wrote:I'm finding this "Day ending just after weekend IRL" thing very difficult, as I can only really keep up during working hours. I spend my day sitting in front of a screen all week, so I try to stay away from the screen on weekends. It seems so much activity happens on a weekend, so I end up with lots of catching up to do...then before I can post to analyze it, or even absorb it, the day is over.


I agree with this. I think it's solved now with the delayed night end.

You two really should've said something earlier. I probably would have extended either day or night an extra 24 hours to resolve this.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:19 pm UTC

@Gopher of Pern: Yeah, I realized meanwhile what you meant. The reason I'm (mostly) discounting LaserGuy is because I was looking at possible connections to Carlington and I think that someone voting him to protect against the lynch is a much more likely possibility than someone who 'just happened to be' on the counter-wagon.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby SDK » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:22 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SDK: please post your reads you made before knowing the N2 results, as well as any updated thoughts you have given the flips.

Well, the first part is easy.

Vote: Sabrar.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:23 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@SDK: please post your reads you made before knowing the N2 results, as well as any updated thoughts you have given the flips.

Well, the first part is easy.

Vote: Sabrar.


Short and sweet. I like it :)
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby SDK » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:24 pm UTC

As for the latter, Znirk should have been lynched Day 1, but not Day 2. Odd twist that this confirms jimbob as a survivor, but that's neither here nor there. He's not scum in any case. We need to start hitting mafia, and you're the place to start.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:27 pm UTC

SDK wrote:As for the latter, Znirk should have been lynched Day 1, but not Day 2.
Isn't that exactly what I said D1? I wonder how I knew. :D


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