Gopher of Pern wrote:↶
Carlington, given that Madge is alive, isn't your point moot? Whether it worked or not, we know that Madge was targeted by SirGabriel the night he died.
: I might be misunderstanding you, please clarify. Do you think that SirGabriel's action itself was not successful (e.g. he was roleblocked), or that his action did not have any impact on the results (i.e. no one tried to kill Madge)?
Carlington wrote:So unless we do have some sort of alternating or conditional kill (or more than one doctor/roleblocker), that means the kills collided (unlikely) or one was withheld (why?)
Dismisses successful roleblock or doctor as an explanation, without giving reason. Later he lists that as a possibility. Still later he goes back to stating he doesn't think SirGabriel's action was successful. What gives?
I think it's a possibility sure, my only point I was trying to make out of any of that was that I didn't like how quick players were to assume the doctor action was successful. Looking at it again, though, I'm coming to realise that the entire train of thought was based around a particular moment of derp (it relies on kills resolving before doctor actions, which is...well, silly.)
Carlington wrote:My basis is that the townier you look, the more likely you are to draw the NK. If you're town, this is bad because town loses a player.
Scum kills someone every night, most likely Town. How is this any different? Plus if you're townie enough Doctor might protect you or scum might not kill you because they think s/he will. Plus if you're townie you won't get lynched. I just don't understand your argument here.
It's entirely possible that there's something about my role that makes me cautious about attracting the attention of scum, which may indeed be influencing my answer to this question. Especially now, given the death of the doctor, I feel somewhat justified in being a little nervy at the prospect.
@Carlington - do you believe Znirk might be scum (other than cult)? What percentage likelihood would you say Znirk is a cult? Are you saying you are willing to sacrifice an indie to possibly get a confirmed town?
Answers in order asked: I certainly think something
odd is going on with Znirk, but right now I am at an utter loss as to what
. 50/50 odds of being a cult seem too high, but I don't want to rule it out. And finally, absolutely. Indies are in no way bound to help us achieve our wincon, nor we theirs. I acknowledge it might be a bit of a dick move, but nonetheless I'd do it.
Carlington wrote: As for NK targets, SK needs to try not to hit too many scum, otherwise when the game doesn't end they are a lone wolf against town. Scum, however, probably wants to vary their targets depending on how they all are being read currently - if they're being picked up as scum, they want to target folks from neutral and town ends of people lists so as to avoid narrowing the field of lynch candidates to themselves. If they're broadly regarded as towny, kill off the scummy end of the list and leave town with no scum reads to vote for.
If both SK and mafia generally targets neutral/townie players, then what do you find odd about the choice of SirGabriel for the night kill if he was neutral on most people’s lists (town on yours, scum on GoP’s)?
I said I was confused, which was perhaps not understood the way I thought it was. What I mean to say is, SirGabriel's death led me to wonder about what made him the target. Taking my ideas about optimal targeting as read, and assuming optimal scum, then we can work back and conclude the following: If SirG was killed by mafia, then many town members have mafia accurately at the scummy end of their reads lists; if SirG was killed by SK, we can't conclude as much - SK kills can be treated as effectively random, with a bias towards preserving factional balance. As for the odd wording and claims of confusion, I blame the stream-of-consciousness nature of my posting at that time - I was confused when I made the post, but I was also still trying to work it out when I made the post; it was a work in progress.
Carlington wrote:Also, I only provided reads on people I had things to say about. The rest of the information there is given as a reference for my thoughts at this time, but I didn't see the sense in listing off a whole bunch of "neutral/slightly town" "neutral/slightly scum" when they won't have any bearing anyway.
So you read almost everyone as neutral, fine, but that's not helpful tomorrow if town!you is night killed. Please provide an ordered list, town to scum. Include every player that is alive (and by alive I mean everyone who is playing D2). No groupings. Your name at one end, your scummiest read at the other end, and everyone else, one per line, in between. If you need an example, see the end of this post.
I'll give it a whirl, because it seems like it'll be helpful to you and others in town. That said, I find it a bit confronting to be told so matter-of-factly to play a certain way.