Diablo Mafia - Day 6 (The End)

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freezeblade
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby freezeblade » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:39 pm UTC

I've caught some flack about talking about you too much, and I have discussed you D3 already.

You are my strongest scum read, and is pretty well documented in my previous posts.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby bessie » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:39 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@bessie - your theory sounds sensible, but I think it's overthought. If there was a cult in the game, then yes, your theory might work, but I don't think there is, although I have no evidence as such. Some reasons to doubt the theory: why would Survivor!Znirk have a demon role and false claim, but not Survivor!Wirt/Jimbob? Also how about Madge's miller claim? I think that if demons are being used to replace townies, it's more likely that dimochka simply has a limited pool of demons to assign our as needed. Are there even 15 demons with names in the flavour?
Thanks jimbob for replying, this is what I wanted to know. Znirk’s flip doesn’t support my theory. He’s not Rogue who became Red Vex after she was possessed (necessary for my theory to work). And I’m not reading Rogue as an explicit false claim either, more like some of that additional background information that dimochka offered to all players. Perhaps dimochka wrote the character as Rogue, and after the RNG alignments modified the flavor. I come up with a complicated setup theory in almost every game I play, so I need to rethink this and decide if we’re reading too much into the flavor.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:47 pm UTC

freezeblade wrote:I've caught some flack about talking about you too much, and I have discussed you D3 already.
That's a complete cop-out given my recent claims and the fact that barely a day has passed since the beginning of D3.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby freezeblade » Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:23 pm UTC

I disagree, but you are welcome to your opinion.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby SDK » Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:44 pm UTC

freezeblade, you should at least answer my previous question to you (re: your vote for Sabrar). You're treating Sabrar's wagon in a bit of an odd way today, so getting some solid justification from you would be good for Day 4 regardless of how he flips.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby freezeblade » Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:11 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
freezeblade wrote:You know, I find myself agreeing with SDK about lynch targets! (surprised, SDK?)

What lynch targets are you talking about? (Other than Sabrar, obviously)

But don't worry, if Sabrar flips town, I'll attack you, same as usual. :wink:


If this is the question you're referring to (I couldn't find another one), then that's pretty much the one I'm talking about.

Sabrar's wagon is a long time coming, people have been suspecting him from D1, my own suspicions at that point were more along the lines of "something is just feeling not right," which built as he was budding with znirk as I pointed out D1(I think hedging bets to build up a rapport for bargaining with the survivor later game). Lots of suspicion on how the vote played out on D1 (If Sabrar was scum, he would prefer to lynch a town member than an indie survivor). Sabrar has also been very touchy when pressed about anything, creating voluminous posts disputing intentions, and the whole early "Well if I'm lynched" after a single post, even though it was "explained" later, the retroactive explanation provided once pressed is strange (something about how they thought they were part-way lovers with znirk because of how their role was written, but says it wasn't explicitly explained by the mod? wouldn't you try and clarify with the mod about this, in a PM?).

It's all very cagey, and seems like trying to cover up and justify scummy over-reaction when called out.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 2 (Bloody Morning)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:51 pm UTC

freezeblade wrote:even though it was "explained" later, the retroactive explanation provided once pressed is strange
Nobody will claim Lovers any time before it's absolutely necessary, so you shouldn't expect any such explanation that is not retroactive.
freezeblade wrote:wouldn't you try and clarify with the mod about this, in a PM?
No, I assumed (from any number of previous such conversations) that no mod would reveal a hidden aspect that was only hinted at in the flavor.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby freezeblade » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:00 pm UTC

the original reaction was strange, as well as the later explanation for it, not the fact that you retroactively claimed it. I feel like you are purposefully misconstruing what I'm saying.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:24 pm UTC

No, I just misunderstood. My bad.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:17 pm UTC

FWIW, I can believe that something in Sabrar's role PM could have indicated that he had some kind of connection with Red Vex. The bit of flavour that I interpreted to mean a possible second win con is directly tied to another character as well. I'd be interested to know if other players have similar pieces of info in their PMs, mainly because I wonder if there's some affect by interacting with the specific named characters, somehow (FTR, mine was not related to Red Vex). Of course, that could all be complete rubbish.

Re-reading since D3 start. Miscellaneous thoughts as I come across them.

I don't like freezeblade's comments about Carlington at the end of D2 and start of D. On switching his vote to Znirk:
freezeblade wrote:Of the top two, I'd prefer to lynch the indie who possibly could not be town-aligned vs. a lurker again.
and in response to Sabrar's vote analysis:
freezeblade wrote:I voted for Znirk because looking at my scum-town list, he was the only one who had a chance of actually being lynched
This seems quite a big discrepancy, plus the fact that Carlington was hardly a lurker later on on D2 doesn't look good. He hasn't corrected that point, despite my previous attempt to prod him. Note that SDK and Sabrar have picked up on similar points. Carlington/freezeblade scum team?

For SDK's benefit (I know this is largely irrelevant, but I like to respond to questions posed about my content) - the JDU vote D1 was a random vote. It was as good an excuse as any to place one, and I wanted to prod a new player to see what happened. Regarding my comments on Madge, I regular find things bad on first read, and leave it for a bit before deciding how I feel on a second read. Sometimes I comment on them, sometimes not, plus in this case, I was literally about to arrive at my office when I posted this.

@SDK - do you still believe a cult is likely a threat?

Also @SDK - can you explain what about this post makes you 90% convinced Sabrar is scum?

Sabrar wrote:
SDK wrote:Sabrar's reads list. This is an opportunistic list. Sabrar is cherry picking from others' opinions to form opinions of his own. One strong example:
Sabrar wrote:Gopher of Pern: advocates lying as town if he feels it helps him. This is something we will probably never agree on, however also could explain why I'm getting scummy vibes from him every game. Never really answers why he thinks more than 2 NK is likely (skirted the question by only replying to Carlington who misphrased it slightly). He was the player with the best reason to kill SirGabriel. Still looking scummy to me.
BTW this is completely wrong. I suspected Gopher of Pern immediately after I saw who was killed N1 but was waiting to see if anyone else would also notice it.
As has been posted by others already, I don't buy this comment. Saying that you thought someone was scummy from the start of D2, or whatever, much later on from the event is not exactly a scum tell (I've done it myself before, I'm pretty certain, as Town), but the comment about waiting to see if anybody would notice it just strikes me as wrong. In fact, Sabrar is not usually one to hold back suspicions, from what I recall, so it seems odd he did this, this time around.

@Sabrar - what did you hope to gain by seeing who would notice the SirGabriel suspicion on Gopher?

I don't get this trio of posts from Sabrar:
Sabrar wrote:Last thing before bed.
SDK wrote:What on Earth is this? Buddying alongside offering yourself up as the lynch, I guess. I will take you up on that offer, Sabrar.
Needless to say I no longer think that this would be a good idea. I had a good reason for it though at the time.
Sabrar wrote:Obviously lying with previous post.<snip>
Sabrar wrote:<snip>Upon reading the flavor in my role-pm several times I came to two conclusions:
1. Red Vex is not a threat to us.
2. As a hidden aspect she and I are Lovers.

After Znirk claimed Survivor I mentally modified that last bit as being one-way (if she dies I die as well but not vice versa). That's why I offered myself at the beginning of D2, so we do not lose 2 non-scum players. I was very surprised at the pm with jimbob and I usually hate admitting being wrong, so I convinced myself that it was because of scum!jimbob's ability as having Znirk's alignment 'confirmed' by two separate means seemed overkill.
@Sabrar - please clarify what bit you were referring to when you said "Obviously lying with previous post". From what I can tell you are either saying you are lying that you no longer think it a good idea to get yourself lynched, or you are saying you did not have a good reason for offering yourself up for the lynch. The former makes no sense, yet you directly contradict the latter in the third of the quoted posts.

@plytho - There are many ways that a Serial Killer could be possible, along with a Mafia faction with a normal kill, without going into more unusual things such as even/odd night SKs, an obvious one obvious being that SirG protected Madge successfully from one kill N1, and that he used his bodyguard ability, again to protect Madge N2, whilst the other kill targeted someone who is immune to the night kill, or was roleblocked, or whatever. Just to clear up a couple of related points:

If SirGabriel/ahippo was the target of one kill last night and protected the target of another kill, would both targets have died, or just SirGabriel?
If two different kills targeted SirGabriel/ahippo's protection target on the same night, would he have been the only one to die, or would both he and his target have died?

Possible scum slip here:
plytho wrote:Scenario 2: there is an SK (or a SK?) and there were 2 night kills each night. N1 doctor SirG protects scum target Madge and is killed by the SK. N2 bodyguard SirG protects (Madge?) from scum kill. Someone else blocked the SK kill.
plytho hasn't stated the inverse as a possibility, i.e. with SK targeting Madge and scum killing SirG N1, and SK targeting SirG N2 and scum kill was blocked. Why not? Possibly because he know that scum targeted Madge N1, because he is scum. The fact that the two nights have the successful killer switched makes me slightly doubt that it was assumed that the inverse was possible, as I think it would be more natural to assume the same person/team were successful on both nights.

adnapemit wrote:You are pretty much confirmed survivor now. Why do you have to correct D3?
Because even when I was querying LaserGuy's comments, I kept getting non-scum/non-town switched around, despite knowing what I was trying to type.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:30 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - please clarify what bit you were referring to when you said "Obviously lying with previous post".
Tackling this one first because I find it funny that you don't get it. I was 'lying' about my previous post being the 'last thing before bed'. I can't leave this game alone even if I'm dead tired.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:48 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Saying that you thought someone was scummy from the start of D2, or whatever,
Actually I already suspected him D1, SirGabriel's death just reinforced that.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - what did you hope to gain by seeing who would notice the SirGabriel suspicion on Gopher?
There have been a number of occasions (both in this game and others) where I found something scummy that others didn't (and vice versa). I wanted to see if this is the case here as well and my suspicion on Gopher of Pern was a result of me having tunnel-vision, or if anyone else would notice it completely independently from me. It seems there are different opinions about this (e.g. SDK doesn't think it matters).

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby SDK » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:27 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@SDK - do you still believe a cult is likely a threat?

Not sure. I hope not, because they're doing really well if so. I do believe that alignment/wincon changing must be a thing this game. Way too many caveats otherwise, but it may just be small things like how your wincon changed as a result of something weird.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Also @SDK - can you explain what about this post makes you 90% convinced Sabrar is scum?

It had been building up to that point, but that list struck me as scummy at a few points. I already quoted those that felt particularly off (one in my big post and two more later). Town-scum lists are great for information since you can see how that player treats each other player side-by-side. I didn't like Sabrar's treatment of several players.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby plytho » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:43 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Possible scum slip here:
plytho wrote:
Scenario 2: there is an SK (or a SK?) and there were 2 night kills each night. N1 doctor SirG protects scum target Madge and is killed by the SK. N2 bodyguard SirG protects (Madge?) from scum kill. Someone else blocked the SK kill.
plytho hasn't stated the inverse as a possibility, i.e. with SK targeting Madge and scum killing SirG N1, and SK targeting SirG N2 and scum kill was blocked. Why not? Possibly because he know that scum targeted Madge N1, because he is scum. The fact that the two nights have the successful killer switched makes me slightly doubt that it was assumed that the inverse was possible, as I think it would be more natural to assume the same person/team were successful on both nights.


It just made more sense to me for Madge (read by most as very likely town) to be the target of scum and SirG (read by most as neutral) to be the target of an SK. But that may be me not getting NK strategy. I was mostly trying to figure out the odds of an SK being in the game and didn't want to speculate too much on who the targets may have been because I don't think it would have added a lot of value. As I said later in that post: the flow of that scenario makes sense to me.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby plytho » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:02 pm UTC

I said I was going to try to order my 4 top scum reads based on more analysis. Of these 4 I haven't managed to tackle Sabrar yet so I'll try to figure him out tomorrow.

adnapemit: D2 reads post feels off with only Bessie as town read, four neutral reads and a whole bunch of scum reads. That’s a nice way to hide some scumbuddies and distance yourself from them should they flip later. Top scum reads are the two survivors. Next are LaserGuy and me with similar reasoning. Me for accepting Znirkbob as claimed for my reads list (I’ve tried to clarify but got no further reply from adnapemit) and LaserGuy for calling Madge confirmed town for his list. No real content so far D3. I’d really like to see a revised list from adnapemit tomorrow.

@adnapemit: get well soon

Carlington: This may be a bit of OMGUS but I still find it strange that he goes from
Carlington wrote:plytho stands out as town to me, despite that aforementioned slip. I'm inclined to believe it was an honest mistake, although I suppose that's subject to future information, as with all things.
To putting me as his top scum read after Znirkbob. The explanation that I’m one of 8 neutral reads and my slip got inflated doesn’t satisfy me if you say I stand out as town first. It also means that after the jimbob = survivor reveal nobody is particularly scummy according to Carlington. Hasn’t posted D3 I hope he noticed the lynch switched to Znirk in the end. Carlington, you’re alive!

@Carlington: do you find anybody scummy at this point?

Freezeblade: This is more of a gut read. Freezeblade felt lurky on D1 and tunneled Sabrar D2 (and more of that D3).
This remark by jimbob is interesting
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't like freezeblade's comments about Carlington at the end of D2 and start of D. On switching his vote to Znirk:
freezeblade wrote:Of the top two, I'd prefer to lynch the indie who possibly could not be town-aligned vs. a lurker again.
and in response to Sabrar's vote analysis:
freezeblade wrote:I voted for Znirk because looking at my scum-town list, he was the only one who had a chance of actually being lynched
This seems quite a big discrepancy, plus the fact that Carlington was hardly a lurker later on on D2 doesn't look good. He hasn't corrected that point, despite my previous attempt to prod him. Note that SDK and Sabrar have picked up on similar points. Carlington/freezeblade scum team?


Madge noted similarities between Carlington and Freezeblade:
Madge wrote: Carlington and Freezeblade are very similar to me. Both lurking but have a few good posts. Freezeblade more consistent at first, Carlington more consistent later.


So it’s strange for Freezeblade to be calling Carlington a lurker.

Order of these three:
scummy: Freezeblade
scummier: adnapemit
scummiest: Carlington
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:41 pm UTC

My problems with freezeblade as scum is that I'm pretty sure Sabrar is scum, and freezeblade is going pretty hard for Sabrar. It could be scum throwing the other under the bus, but from early day 2, when not much heat was on either of them? Ballsy gambit.

Carlington still hasn't posted yet today, would like to hear from them.

SDK currently looks alright (Although that may just be because we agree on Sabrar), and I didn't have any particular scummy vibes from mpolo. Looking town.

I think laserguy is more likely to be scum than plytho, simply because of their links to Sabrar (assuming Sabrar is scum.)

I would like adnapemit to post more. And yes, I was badly wording the fact that Znirk is not really a survivor anymore.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby dimochka » Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:30 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If SirGabriel/ahippo was the target of one kill last night and protected the target of another kill, would both targets have died, or just SirGabriel?

Only SirGabriel/ahippo.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If two different kills targeted SirGabriel/ahippo's protection target on the same night, would he have been the only one to die, or would both he and his target have died?

Both.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby bessie » Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:35 am UTC

Still going over some leftovers from D2, and the D3 content. It looks like I never answered this.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@bessie - I don't recall you suggesting Carlington as a Serial Killer candidate before my reads list, and I might be misinterpreting things now, so just to be clear, do you believe Carlington to be a Serial Killer? If so, for how long?
Carlington didn’t have a lot of content to analyze when I made my D2 reads list (the two posts immediately preceding the list were made when I was typing it out), so I was just needling him for being lurky scum. Carlington made three more posts, then you made your D2 reads posts. In my next post, I suggested Carlington was trying to downplay the threat of a serial killer here (posted after your reads list), but my read was still just generally scum. So if your question is did your read of Carlington influence that post, the answer is not really, as that was my first post where Carlington had a significant amount of content for me to analyze.

Sabrar wrote:@Gopher of Pern: Yeah, I realized meanwhile what you meant. The reason I'm (mostly) discounting LaserGuy is because I was looking at possible connections to Carlington and I think that someone voting him to protect against the lynch is a much more likely possibility than someone who 'just happened to be' on the counter-wagon.
Sabrar, I’m trying to figure out what you mean here, and I’m a bit lost (probably because it is a reply to a reply). Can you clarify this please? Are you discounting LaserGuy as scum or as scum-with-Carlington?

I don't like this post by LaserGuy, it's mostly setup/flavor speculation. Active lurking. I especially don't like this.
LaserGuy wrote:As far my vote is concerned, a lot of it came down to flavor. As I mentioned in an earlier post, there is pretty good evidence (and supported by ahippo's recent death, actually) that the flavor and abilities of the character from the game fairly closely aligns to their role, alignment, and abilities, despite dimochka's comments to the contrary.
I'm not familiar with the flavor (other than the provided links) but I don't agree with this. How are any of the flips contrary to what dimochka has said?
dimochka wrote:Since I promised a newbie-friendly game, I'll explain a bit more. Alignments were allocated 100% randomly, and players assigned to a given role were also random. As far as the connection between powers and role - they weren't completely random but I took quite a bit of creative freedom with those, AND they were allocated BEFORE alignment. So if for instance I could have decided that Ogden's Wife (used as an example since she's dead in my flavor; not in the video game) was a healer, watcher / tracker, Ogden's bodyguard, or a million other things. That also DOES NOT prevent her from from being anti-town at the same time.

And it contradicts what you say here.
LaserGuy wrote:I don't think he lied to us. I do think he left himself enough ambiguity for the character roles to make sense, both with powers and with alignment. Although, admittedly, Znirk as Red Vex/survivor certainly didn't fit the mold as well as the other characters we've seen flipped.


LaserGuy wrote:I've interacted with Sabrar at least as much as I have with plytho, Gopher of Pern, or freezeblade and more than I have with the lurkier players like Carlington, Madge, or bessie.
I’m lurking? Compared to who, and what’s your standard? Post count, consistency, quality? At least I’m not active lurking.

Post count:
Spoiler:
Adnapemit (13)
Ahippo/SirGabriel (7/10)
Bessie (18)
Carlington (18)
Dimochka (36)
Freezeblade (29)
Gopher of Pern (32)
Jimbobmacdoodle (32)
JustDanceUnlimited (2)
LaserGuy (30)
Madge (14)
Mpolo/SDK (11/12)
Plytho (44)
Sabrar (111)
SirGabriel (9)
Znirk (31)
Ok, you have me there.

plytho wrote:Concerning the death(s) of SirGabriel and the probability of an SK:
Scenario 1: there is no SK, every attempted kill resulted in death. This would mean 1. SirG was the target of scum N1 and his protection of Madge wasn’t needed, 2. SirG was the target of scum N2 and his protecion of (perhaps Madge again?) wasn’t needed.
Scenario 2: there is an SK (or a SK?) and there were 2 night kills each night. N1 doctor SirG protects scum target Madge and is killed by the SK. N2 bodyguard SirG protects (Madge?) from scum kill. Someone else blocked the SK kill.
Scenario 3: odd night SK killed SirG N1, scum targeted Madge twice, she was protected by SirG twice
Scenario 4: Other (even night SK, vigilante, more kills + blocking)

Probabilities:
55% Scenario 1
30% Scenario 2
10% Scenario 3
5% other

I expect these percentages to change based on claims. I like the flow of scenario 2 more than scenario 1 but have reasons to give scenario 2 lower odds. Reasons I might claim later but I’d like to hear some night action results first.
As jimbobmacdoodle already said, too easy for the survivors to win. Also too many protective powers (doctor, bodyguard, and possibly others). There should be another kill for this game to end in a reasonable time period. Or cult. Or lovers, I guess. While we're on the subject you can add to your list of scenarios the SK withheld. It’s been known to happen.

plytho wrote:Wait,
Gopher of Pern wrote: we all know scum is third.
Gopher of Pern, when Sabrar has 2 votes wrote:Vote: Sabrar
did you just claim scum?
:lol:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:FWIW, I can believe that something in Sabrar's role PM could have indicated that he had some kind of connection with Red Vex. The bit of flavour that I interpreted to mean a possible second win con is directly tied to another character as well. I'd be interested to know if other players have similar pieces of info in their PMs, mainly because I wonder if there's some affect by interacting with the specific named characters, somehow (FTR, mine was not related to Red Vex). Of course, that could all be complete rubbish.
I will carefully consider this, but I doubt there are any hidden win conditions. I’m leaning toward the belief that all the flavor is just flavor.

I'll try to have an updated reads list tomorrow.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:10 am UTC

I missed this in my previous post.

plytho wrote:Wait,
Gopher of Pern wrote: we all know scum is third.
Gopher of Pern, when Sabrar has 2 votes wrote:Vote: Sabrar
did you just claim scum?


Well, I meant third on a town lynch.

That said, if Sabrar ends up being lynched, and town, feel free to lynch me next :)
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:00 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Sabrar, I’m trying to figure out what you mean here, and I’m a bit lost (probably because it is a reply to a reply). Can you clarify this please? Are you discounting LaserGuy as scum or as scum-with-Carlington?
I wasn't expecting to be able to identify the whole scum-team based on a single vote-analysis, so I just looked for the most probable teammate of Carlington if he should flip as scum. I think that is freezeblade. It is entirely possible that LaserGuy is also scum in that case but he wouldn't be my first guess.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby adnapemit » Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:47 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Me for accepting Znirkbob as claimed for my reads list (I’ve tried to clarify but got no further reply from adnapemit)
I'll try to explain it again but I'm not sure it will be any better than my last attempt.
There is a slight difference in saying it's too complicated to look at so you will look into it later and accepting that's what they are even though you state directly afterwards you know that they might not be. Using what you said in that post for your reads, if you had listed the players as town to scum jimbob would have been in the town/townier part of the list and Znirk in the middle, where as if you had made the list based on only what you had looked at the list would not contain their names. Once you had looked into them they may sit in the same position but they could be different.
It doesn't appear to have made much difference to your other reads but my issue was I found it odd that you chose to accept when you could have ignored.


Because it was so close between Carlington and Znirk for votes I wanted to see if there is enough to suggest that Carlington is a SK. Looking at posts that focus on Carlington since jimbob suggested the idea that Carlington was a SK:
Spoiler:
Jimbob suggests the idea because he thinks a SK is likely because of JDU's flip and suspects Carlington as likely he has missed evidence of multiple kills.
At the time the post was made Znirk was in the lead with 3 votes. Since jimbob is a survivor it is interest to reduce the number of night kills so finding a likely SK is a good idea. By voting Carlington he added another possible lynch choice and one that might be better than a Znirk lynch(also in jimbobs interest to prevent).

GoP makes a short comment that he'd be inclined to believe the theory if Carlington hadn't posted so much recently.

bessie makes a post looking at parts of Carlington's posts that seem to downplay the chance of a SK and places Carlington as most scummy on her list. She had previously voted for Carlington to prompt him to post but also had him as only posting what he needs to to avoid a lynch.

Madge votes for Carlington because it's a better option than the others but has no opinion of and trusts bessie. Could also have been convinced to vote for freezeblade for same reasons as Carlington. Leaves vote on Carlington for lurking D1 and early D2. Not a great initial reasons for voting, lynching because of lurking is a bit better but still not based on Carlington's content posted.

Sabrar mentions Znirk could NL or lynch Carlington. Mentions he is fine with the latter as he already has reservations with his content. He does not change his vote.

Carlington responds to comments/quotes. Some of his excuses are better than others but all are pretty weak.

Madge unvotes to prevent tie.

plytho votes Carlington to tie, hoping Madge returns to vote.

Madge replaces vote on Carlington.

Carlington comments that from bessie to plytho there is almost no difference in his reads. That's 8 players who he had similar opinion of nothing scummy that stood out.

Bessie comments Carlington only made list because he was forced and not because he wants to help town. Also comments that her request for reads list was so specific because of his evasiveness.

freezeblade places Carlington as neutral.
Znirk list Carlington as "Strange but not necessarily wrong" but votes Carlington attempting to prevent his own lynch.

jimbob questions bessie on if she thinks Carlington is a SK and for how long(bessie responds D3 that her read was just generally scum). He also decides not to change vote based on what he saw in the comments.

freezeblade changes vote to Znirk because he doesn't want another lurker lynch. Madge seemed to be the only one voting for Carlington because he was lurking, even then her other reason is because she didn't want to lynch any of the others.

SirGabriel doesn't oppose Carlington lynch because he thinks argument of SK is plausible but thinks Znirk is a better option as it could end threat of cult.

plytho changes their mind and votes Znirk putting Znirk with the most votes. plytho had the deciding vote in this, and the sudden switch was really close to the deadline.

GoP would rather lynch Carlington than Znirk but doesn't want to tie votals.


Opinion: There is definitly enough evidence that Carlington is scummy and I also think it is likely that he is a SK. I'm not sure there was enough to out weigh the suspicion of Znirk D2. In my first analysis of him I said I think he might have a kill ability base on how he described his opinion of the setup. But that was very much a guess. But if he does then it's less likely that he is a vig since ahippo/SirGabriel had that ability.
With jimbob survivor and Znirk dead, Sabrar is now at the top of my scum list because of previous suspicion and his D3 posts(will expand on tomorrow, need to sleep now) so today I think either lynching Sabrar who is most likely scum or Carlington who is likely SK or scum would be good.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby plytho » Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:37 pm UTC

It appears my Saturdays are busier than I expect. I'll attempt to read Sabrar tomorrow.

bessie wrote:As jimbobmacdoodle already said, too easy for the survivors to win. Also too many protective powers (doctor, bodyguard, and possibly others). There should be another kill for this game to end in a reasonable time period. Or cult. Or lovers, I guess. While we're on the subject you can add to your list of scenarios the SK withheld. It’s been known to happen.


Yeah, I'm realizing there are too many possibilities to eliminate or confirm SK based on the two nights we've had. The reason I was investigating that is because my action didn't succeed last night. I took that to mean I was probably roleblocked which would significantly lower the odds of the SK being roleblocked.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:48 pm UTC

That would explain both of my results. Oh well, getting used to never being able to use them effectively.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby bessie » Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:45 pm UTC

plytho, did your action fail, or did you get no result on your target?

Carlington, you’re lurking. Please post and claim your night action.

Gopher of Pern, you have not made any claims regarding N2. Do you have anything to share?

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby plytho » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:22 pm UTC

bessie wrote:plytho, did your action fail, or did you get no result on your target?

The former.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:39 pm UTC

bessie wrote:plytho, did your action fail, or did you get no result on your target?

Carlington, you’re lurking. Please post and claim your night action.

Gopher of Pern, you have not made any claims regarding N2. Do you have anything to share?


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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:45 pm UTC

SDK wrote:I'd rather not lynch the SK at the moment. We may be close to losing the game if you decide to switch sides, and with three dead townies, the SK (if there is one - I still think it's likely) should be trying to help us out here to maintain the balance of power.
I feel this is wrong on some level, will try to find the time tomorrow to collect my thoughts and analyze the situation.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby bessie » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:55 pm UTC

Thanks plytho and Gopher of Pern.

Request mod-prod on Carlington

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Carlington » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:02 am UTC

Mod-prod isn't necessary. I don't have anything of real use to report from last night, I'm going to eat something and report back.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Carlington » Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:37 am UTC

To elaborate on my claim - I did use a power last night, but I didn't necessarily gain any useful information from it. It is, however, possible that I was the reason there was only one kill last night and/or the reason plytho's power failed. I'm sure everyone playing can follow what I'm saying here. I do want to note that this soft claim doesn't cover my entire power.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Carlington » Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:29 am UTC

Okay, new reads, now with added effort!

First things first: A couple of names have been eliminated from the list, leaving plytho right at the bottom. I'm really not happy with that situation though - no matter how neutral my read on everyone is, plytho is definitely not at the bottom of the pile.

Reads since D3 start:

Sabrar: Immediately looks for info after N2 results. No longer believes there's an SK. Believes that if I'm in a scumteam, my teammate is freezeblade based on vote analysis from the end of D2. (I'm not, FWIW, but also I definitely agree that my being alive this morning came as something of a surprise). Since then, there's been a buttload of posts but they're all pretty empty, mostly replying to others and asking brief questions/poking people. I have a gut-level bad feeling, but I can't elucidate it so I'm hesitant because we've been pretty inaccurate thus far.

freezeblade - Consistent, if nothing else. Seems very one-track on voting Sabrar, but also is still providing reads on other players and so forth. Leaning town side of neutral, but this may be boosted slightly by the fact that his read would confirm my gut feeling on Sabrar.

plytho - Wonders whether SirG was really the kill target from last night. Makes a good point about JDU's kill-counting power.
plytho wrote:
Some explanation for my voting: I first voted for my top scum pick (Freezeblade), when I realized that it was going to be between Carlington and Znirk I tried to figure out which one was more scummy but I could not figure it out. At one point I felt the Carlington = SK theory made sense so I voted for him.
Do you still believe this makes sense?
Reasonable-looking analysis of the possible explanations for night deaths thus far, although I don't know if I agree completely with the probabilities assigned each one. His analysis of freezeblade, adnapemit, and I makes me believe that if he is scum then his teammate is Sabrar. Probably not scum, but this will be re-evaluated if Sabrar turns out to be scum. (This isn't a bi-directional "if and only if" type scenario - I can see a couple of potential scumteams for scum!Sabrar, but if plytho flips scum then I think the only possible scummate is Sabrar).

jimbob - Confirmed Survivor.

GoP - as pointed out previously by Sabrar, could be hanging a wine-soaked lampshade with the "Who has it out for SirG?" Has a lot of potential scum picks. Votes Sabrar but otherwise not much to comment on today. By virtue of having reads that kinda match mine, also on the towny side of neutral, around the same height as freezeblade.

SDK - Jumps straight into the action and throws strong opinions around almost immediately, in a way that suggests to me that he's town. The only thing about him that's pinging me is his comment about letting the SK maintain the balance of power. That seems like altogether far too risky a strategy for my liking. Town.

LaserGuy - Not much to go off thus far today, and nothing stands out as overtly scummy so much as overly cautious. It strikes me as odd that he'd go right back to D1 setup-spec at this point for ideas of what to say, given the glut of information on players and their interactions there has been. (Say what you will about my prior reads post, at least it was based on player analysis). Neutral/possibly slight scum.

Madge - Nothing yet today, other than complimenting SDK's scumhunting skills. Oddly, I seem to remember thinking she was low on content in my last reads post as well. Still sliding by on the grace of the miller claim, but it's wearing thin.

bessie - Not a huge deal of posts today (I was surprised to see we have the same number of posts in this game though! You still wanna attack me for lurking? :lol: ) Claims to still be going through D3 content - any updates on this? Leaning town, I guess, based on prior days.

adnapemit - I feel like she's snuck by being fairly quiet thus far this game, and I'm finding it hard to pin down my read on her. Provisionally, let me say that I at least agree with some of her reads, but I might give her a re-read just to get a stronger sense.

So, distilling that out into a list, let me see what I've ended up with:

Town
Carlington
SDK
bessie
freezeblade
GoP
plytho
Madge
adnapemit
LaserGuy
Sabrar
Scum

The neutral/median sits somewhere around between plytho and Madge, for reference.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:37 am UTC

jimbob wrote:I tried to redirect somebody, but I don't know if it had any affect

plytho wrote: The reason I was investigating that is because my action didn't succeed last night. I took that to mean I was probably roleblocked which would significantly lower the odds of the SK being roleblocked.

Sabrar wrote:That would explain both of my results. Oh well, getting used to never being able to use them effectively.


I really doubt the presence of multiple roleblockers, but there are alternate explanations that could explain multiple people appearing to get null results on their actions that wouldn't require anything too far-fetched (for example, one or more of you targeted a commuter).

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:As far my vote is concerned, a lot of it came down to flavor. As I mentioned in an earlier post, there is pretty good evidence (and supported by ahippo's recent death, actually) that the flavor and abilities of the character from the game fairly closely aligns to their role, alignment, and abilities, despite dimochka's comments to the contrary.


I'm not familiar with the flavor (other than the provided links) but I don't agree with this. How are any of the flips contrary to what dimochka has said?

dimochka wrote:Since I promised a newbie-friendly game, I'll explain a bit more. Alignments were allocated 100% randomly, and players assigned to a given role were also random. As far as the connection between powers and role - they weren't completely random but I took quite a bit of creative freedom with those, AND they were allocated BEFORE alignment. So if for instance I could have decided that Ogden's Wife (used as an example since she's dead in my flavor; not in the video game) was a healer, watcher / tracker, Ogden's bodyguard, or a million other things. That also DOES NOT prevent her from from being anti-town at the same time.


And it contradicts what you say here.

LaserGuy wrote:I don't think he lied to us. I do think he left himself enough ambiguity for the character roles to make sense, both with powers and with alignment. Although, admittedly, Znirk as Red Vex/survivor certainly didn't fit the mold as well as the other characters we've seen flipped.


Maybe it's easier if I just explain what I believe is going on as far as roles/alignments/powers are concerned. First, I believe that all scum are demons, and all townies are humans. Neutrals can apparently be either. This is suggested directly in flavor, eg. "Griswold was human and very dead", and in Madge's miller claim where she said she appears as a demon (but, if I can infer from how she's written this, is presumably actually human). It also fits with the flavor as a whole, and prevents nonsense situations like "Diablo is town" discussed at the start of the game. All of the townie deaths so far have also turned up human. How I think this was achieved was that dimochka created 15 human roles, one for each player, then assigned them randomly to us. Then he assigned alignments, and the players who ended up as demons had the demon flavor replace their human one, and left the human available as a false claim, ala Rogue/Red Vex. I'm not sure what he did with abilities here. It may be he left the human abilities intact, or perhaps the demons had their own roles created at the same time as the humans, and simply replaced them entirely. Probably a combination of each depending on balance needs. Most of the characters in Diablo, especially the townsfolk don't really have obvious Mafia analogues, so it was a choice between having a game with a whole bunch of vanilla townies, or having more power roles but more liberty with each character's flavor. Based on the above, I found the bit from Znirk where he was trying to claim that his false claim was essentially flavor and not in some way related to his role or alignment (as he claims in the quoted text here) to be preposterous, and his later attempts at explaining it struck me as lies.

Carlington wrote:To elaborate on my claim - I did use a power last night, but I didn't necessarily gain any useful information from it. It is, however, possible that I was the reason there was only one kill last night and/or the reason plytho's power failed. I'm sure everyone playing can follow what I'm saying here. I do want to note that this soft claim doesn't cover my entire power.


Are you suggesting that you think that plytho is the SK?

Sabrar wrote:Yeah I might as well do so now that this is no longer an issue.

Upon reading the flavor in my role-pm several times I came to two conclusions:
1. Red Vex is not a threat to us.
2. As a hidden aspect she and I are Lovers.

After Znirk claimed Survivor I mentally modified that last bit as being one-way (if she dies I die as well but not vice versa). That's why I offered myself at the beginning of D2, so we do not lose 2 non-scum players. I was very surprised at the pm with jimbob and I usually hate admitting being wrong, so I convinced myself that it was because of scum!jimbob's ability as having Znirk's alignment 'confirmed' by two separate means seemed overkill.


Hmm... there's a couple of problems that jump out at me from this.

The first is that you are Znirk aren't lovers. I'm extremely skeptical that lovers would be the kind of thing that would be hidden from either of you, considering how bastardy that would be. So it seems really unlikely that this is the conclusion you would arrive at based on your role PM, and if that were the conclusion you arrived it, I have a hard time believing you would act on it without getting mod confirmation that your interpretation was correct. The second is that jimbob isn't scum, joined Znirk's faction, and was, in fact confirming Znirk's alignment correctly. So it's not clear to me what information could be in your role PM confirming Znirk's alignment at all. As you yourself note, a double-confirmation seems overkill (even a single confirmation in role PM is a bit dubious). The third is that it seems fairly likely to me, both based on the flavor of the character, Znirk's role PM, the false claim and the fact that Red Vex was a demon, that Znirk was recruitable by scum. OTOH, it seems really unlikely to me that Znirk would be relevant to three different players--jimbob, you, and some other scum player. Much simpler, more logical, for you to be the scum player.

I wonder if some of Znirk's shadiness could be explained by the fact that he claimed with the expectation of being recruited by scum on D1, and ended up being recruited by someone else entirely.

In any event...

Vote Sabrar.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby bessie » Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:53 am UTC

Carlington wrote:bessie - Not a huge deal of posts today (I was surprised to see we have the same number of posts in this game though! You still wanna attack me for lurking? :lol: )
Well, you asked, so yes, I do. Here's the remark that went with that post count.
bessie wrote:I’m lurking? Compared to who, and what’s your standard? Post count, consistency, quality?
So Carlington, you're saying that lurking is based on post count only. I disagree, and I think you also need to look at the content and the consistency in posting. Should a single line post be given the same weight as a 400 word analysis? And which do you think is more important, posting throughout the game day, or posting nothing throughout most of the game day and making 5 posts in the last 12 hours before deadline?

I took a closer look at Carlington's posts. Here's a summary.
Spoiler:
Timeline (all times are UTC)

2/28/17 6:21am Opening post.
2/28/17 1:57pm Confirm.

2/28/17 4:20pm Day 1 starts.
3/2/17 3:51am Check-in. Madge miller, Znirk indie, gets setup wrong, phone battery is dead, 4 sentences.
2/28/17 1:57pm Corrects setup spec error.

3/5/17 11:22am Sabrar requests mod prod on Carlington.

[4 day gap in posts. The next 6 posts are a single grouping, and should be considered a six-part post.]

3/6/17 7:03am Check-in “just to get something out there”. Some one sentence reads from pages 1-2: Madge miller, GoP town, Znirk pro-town indie, Sabrar suspicious, ahippo empty. Nothing else stands out.
3/6/17 8:26am He will get back to this later.
3/6/17 11:57am Reads starting on page 3: Znirk not survivor, adnapemit thoughtful, plytho light, Madge may have alternative agenda, jimbob good, SirG townie, mpolo sparse.
3/6/17 12:30pm Reads continued: freezeblade OK, LaserGuy good, bessie good, Sabrar off.
3/6/17 12:38pm Reads pages 3-5 continued: GoP aggressive, not reading JDU or ahippo.
3/6/17 12:39pm Votes Znirk.
3/6/17 4:02pm D1 ends.


3/8/17 4:57pm Day 2 starts.
3/9/17 6:49am Nothing to claim, promises not to lurk.
3/9/17 10:04am Comment on GoP’s post, does not believe there is a SK. Justifies his D1 vote for Znirk by explaining he was too inactive to do “heavy analysis”.

[3 day gap.]

3/12/17 12:03am Speculation on SirG’s death, GoP was the only one who found him scummy, could be mafia or SK, but was only kill and SK has no reason to withhold.
3/12/17 12:08am Condolences to mpolo.
3/12/17 3:00am SirG prepared healing salve for Madge, but we should not assume it was used. Working on a big post, expect a lot of little ones with sporadic thoughts. Replies to bessie on NK target philosophy.
3/12/17 3:44am Reads list, complete, but mostly summaries. Only opinions are Znirk’s survivor claim is suspicious and he may be cult with jimbob, GoP is townie and not townie, Madge is a miller, plytho is town. Votes Znirk.
3/12/17 6:47am Reiterates doubt that SirG saved Madge. Defends lack of reads in his previous post because almost everyone is neutral.
3/12/17 9:28am Replies to questions re SirG’s doctor action, now claims he forgot doctor resolves before the kill. Claims something about his role will attract the attention of scum. Replies to jimbob re Znirk. Replies to bessie re NK philosophy, claims he was confused when he made that post. Posts town-scum list to placate bessie.
3/13/17 11:52am Explains that of the 13 people on his list (including himself), 8 are neutral and a single grouping, only Znirk and jimbob scummy, only Madge and SirG townie.
3/13/17 7:12pm D2 ends.


3/16/17 3:55pm Day 3 starts.

3/18/17 10:55pm bessie requests mod prod on Carlington.

3/19/17 1:02am Responds to bessie’s request for a mod prod. Nothing to report from N2.
3/19/17 2:37am Addendum to earlier post, he did use a power but didn’t gain any useful information from it. Speculates that he was the reason there was only one kill and/or the reason plytho’s power failed.
3/19/17 3:29am New reads and town-scum list.

Which leads me to your latest post. I think a still agree with this D2 observation.
bessie wrote: My guess based on the quantity/timing of your posts is that you’re only posting what you need to post to avoid the lynch.


Ok, and on to your D3 content.
Carlington wrote:Mod-prod isn't necessary. I don't have anything of real use to report from last night,
You waited two and a half days to post this. I wonder why.

Carlington wrote:To elaborate on my claim - I did use a power last night, but I didn't necessarily gain any useful information from it. It is, however, possible that I was the reason there was only one kill last night and/or the reason plytho's power failed. I'm sure everyone playing can follow what I'm saying here. I do want to note that this soft claim doesn't cover my entire power.
Why did you even feel the need to elaborate on your claim, when you repeat that you gained no useful information from it? You allude to a power without making a solid claim that you can’t back out of later. The purpose of this seems to be to throw some doubt on plytho and see if it goes anywhere. Fishing expedition.

Carlington wrote:Sabrar: Immediately looks for info after N2 results. No longer believes there's an SK. Believes that if I'm in a scumteam, my teammate is freezeblade based on vote analysis from the end of D2. (I'm not, FWIW, but also I definitely agree that my being alive this morning came as something of a surprise).
Hmm.

Carlington wrote:SDK - Jumps straight into the action and throws strong opinions around almost immediately, in a way that suggests to me that he's town. The only thing about him that's pinging me is his comment about letting the SK maintain the balance of power. That seems like altogether far too risky a strategy for my liking. Town.
What serial killer? Much of your D2 content argued against there being a serial killer in the game. Oh, wait, that’s right, today you’re trying to take credit for blocking a night kill. So Carlington, do you think we should be aiming for mafia or the serial killer? Why?

Ninja'd by LaserGuy. Will read it later.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:16 am UTC

Carlington wrote:Sabrar: No longer believes there's an SK.
This is a misrepresentation of my words.

LaserGuy wrote:The first is that you are Znirk aren't lovers.
LaserGuy wrote:The second is that jimbob isn't scum, joined Znirk's faction, and was, in fact confirming Znirk's alignment correctly.
LaserGuy wrote:OTOH, it seems really unlikely to me that Znirk would be relevant to three different players--jimbob, you, and some other scum player.
You're getting your timelines completely messed up. These are all clear point now on D3, but I never knew any of this D1. So you're basically saying that I'm scum because I didn't act according to info I didn't have? Yeah, you're just jumping on my wagon.
And I already explained why I didn't ask dimochka about it, when the mod explicitly says that roles may have hidden aspects then he will never reveal this upon player inquiry.

And now we turn to math to prove that SDK is SK. :)

Assumption 1: there are at least 9 pro-town players in the game (townies or indies who want to actively help town).
Reason: 8 is just not enough, a single mislynch and a kill leaves town in minority. While multiple scum-factions might turn against each other, it is equally likely that they would reduce town's numbers faster, rendering town helpless.

Assumption 2: the standard scum faction has at least 3 members.
Reason: I think that one is obvious.

Assumption 3: jimbob really started out as Survivor.
Reason: just here for the sake of completeness, theoretically I could envision a scenario where he received a separate pm from the mod, telling him that his alignment changed and then the mutual pm confirms him as Survivor to Znirk. Don't think this is the case here though because he wouldn't need to lie about this in my opinion.

So now we have a 9-3-2 initial setup (where 9 may include a pro-town indie), leaving just 1 slot to be filled. Let's focus on the scenario where we have SK. Then the current setup would be 6-3-1-1. SDK advocates not lynching SK because he believes s/he will kill scum. The biggest problem with this that there is absolutely no guarantee that SK's reads are correct, won't be blocked/redirected. But let's put all that aside. Suppose we lynch scum successfully and SK kills another. Scum (probably) kills Town, so D4 setup would be 5-1-1-1. This is bad for the SK, even more so if he's already under a lot of suspicion, because town can lynch him easily and win.
Suppose instead SK kills Town: setup becomes 4-2-1-1. At this point Town cannot afford to lynch the SK anymore, because then scum could potentially win with jimbob's help. So Town needs to lynch scum, giving SK a much better chance to win.

Now if we mislynch today again, then SK needs to kill scum to arrive at the same numbers but I don't think this is what we hope for.

So we can see that leaving the SK alive because we hope s/he will kill scum is a bad idea.

Conclusion: if we have SK we have to lynch him/her today. This is the only way to guarantee our numerical superiority, no matter what happens at night.
Maybe SDK didn't think this through (though I doubt that). Maybe he thought the SK wouldn't think this through and would believe him that he needs to hit scum (this supposes less than ideal play from SK). Maybe he knows that there isn't any SK because he is in a cult. Maybe he is the SK.
I have no idea which of the above is true, I'd be happy to see any clarification from him about his train of thought.

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Madge
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Madge » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:36 am UTC

I really like laserguys post, and sabrars. Call me crazy but I don't think he's scum. I don't have any ideas who is though. If I die without a full claim it may be jimbob though.

I have come down with something so I will probably be a bit spacey the next day or two. Read the thread and typed this on my phone.

Will do a full claim tomorrow probably.

Oh yeah being a miller I'm human rather than like a friendly demon. I cop as a demon because apparently I act a bit erratically which makes people suspicious. Hope that helps.
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

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adnapemit
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby adnapemit » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:41 am UTC

Sabrar's claim of thinking he was lovers with Red Vex doesn't make sense to me. If there was something in his role PM that lead him to believe specifically that Red Vex wasn't a threat or that he was lovers then it would have to include Red Vex's name or a really accurate description that could only belong to Red Vex. I'm not sure how this could appear hidden.

Sabrar also trys to make Gopher of Pern look scummy with
Sabrar wrote:I'm amazed that no one else finds this post scummy. It hits all the right notes, the 'I told you so' aspect while chastizing town for the incorrect lynch, the fake concern about the dead player who was one of the few who found Gopher of Pern scummy, the sarcastic undertone of 'too bad we lynched/lost the guys who could have helped us'.

when he tried to do the 'I told you so' earlier
Sabrar wrote:
SDK wrote:As for the latter, Znirk should have been lynched Day 1, but not Day 2.
Isn't that exactly what I said D1? I wonder how I knew. :D


Since I'm pretty sure about Sabrar, I think Gopher of Pern is more likely town.

Sabrar wrote:
SDK wrote:I'd rather not lynch the SK at the moment. We may be close to losing the game if you decide to switch sides, and with three dead townies, the SK (if there is one - I still think it's likely) should be trying to help us out here to maintain the balance of power.
I feel this is wrong on some level, will try to find the time tomorrow to collect my thoughts and analyse the situation.

A SK wouldn't be trying to help us maintain balance they are trying to prevent themselves getting killed by eliminating the threat to them. SDK's wording is a strange choice and also caused me to over think this but it's correct.

Response to Sabrar's analysis of SK lynch
That scenario describes the worst case which includes SK reads being wrong, kills not being blocked and us mislynching.


<Town>
adnapemit
Bessie
mpolo/SDK
Gopher of Pern
Madge

jimbobmacdoodle(indie, survivor)

plytho
Freezeblade
LaserGuy
Carlington
Sabrar
<Scum>
Empress adnapemit "Nancy" "Time Panda"
[adnapemit|timepanda]
Does anyone actually read signatures?

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Sabrar
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:51 am UTC

adnapemit wrote:Sabrar's claim of thinking he was lovers with Red Vex doesn't make sense to me. If there was something in his role PM that lead him to believe specifically that Red Vex wasn't a threat or that he was lovers then it would have to include Red Vex's name or a really accurate description that could only belong to Red Vex. I'm not sure how this could appear hidden.
I have no idea why you don't understand it. Yes, Red Vex's name appears in my role pm. The hidden aspect is that it is not spelled out in bold that we are Lovers or that he's not anti-town, rather the flavor only hints at it strongly.

adnapemit wrote:Response to Sabrar's analysis of SK lynch
That scenario describes the worst case which includes SK reads being wrong, kills not being blocked and us mislynching.
Simply not true, it actually describes the SK's reads being right, leading to a loss for him if he follows SDK's advice in case we lynch scum today. I didn't want to explain it step-by-step but if others also misunderstand it I will gladly do a case-by-case breakdown (but not today).

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Mar 19, 2017 4:00 pm UTC

@Carlington - did you explicitly target plytho last night, and were you (not plytho) immune to night actions last night?

I'm not likely to have time this game day to do a full reads list. I'll try if I get a chance, but I make no promises. Based on my previous concerns from D1 and D2 where Sabrar was pretty close to the scummy end of my reads lists, I'm not opposed to his lynch. Also as noted, I think a Carlington/freezeblade team is likely, and I don't trust adnapemit particularly, again based on D2 reads, with little this game day making me change my opinion on her. I'm still a little uncomfortable with LaserGuy as well.

In the townie camp are bessie, SDK, Madge, plytho, and to a lesser extent Gopher of Pern, although Madge's comment that I might be the Serial Killer is weird.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - please clarify what bit you were referring to when you said "Obviously lying with previous post".
Tackling this one first because I find it funny that you don't get it. I was 'lying' about my previous post being the 'last thing before bed'. I can't leave this game alone even if I'm dead tired.
Oops. :lol:
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:47 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Carlington wrote:Sabrar: No longer believes there's an SK.
This is a misrepresentation of my words.

LaserGuy wrote:The first is that you are Znirk aren't lovers.
LaserGuy wrote:The second is that jimbob isn't scum, joined Znirk's faction, and was, in fact confirming Znirk's alignment correctly.
LaserGuy wrote:OTOH, it seems really unlikely to me that Znirk would be relevant to three different players--jimbob, you, and some other scum player.


You're getting your timelines completely messed up. These are all clear point now on D3, but I never knew any of this D1. So you're basically saying that I'm scum because I didn't act according to info I didn't have? Yeah, you're just jumping on my wagon.
And I already explained why I didn't ask dimochka about it, when the mod explicitly says that roles may have hidden aspects then he will never reveal this upon player inquiry.


No, my timeline is fine.

You're claiming that you thought you and Znirk were lovers D1 and expected that your deaths would be connected. You also claimed your D1 PM revealed this info as well as confirming Znirk as survivor. Now, again, in a supposedly newbie-friendly, non-bastard game, I find it very hard to believe that you would have jumped to the conclusion that this was the case if the PM hadn't spelled it out, or wouldn't have attempt to clarify such a hidden trait with such serious gameplay implications. Given that you aren't lovers, I have a hard time believing that your role PM would be so poorly written that an experienced player would misconstrue the text to arrive at that conclusion, or that the mod wouldn't clarify it if you did.

The second and third points are independent of the timeline. We know that jimbob was able to recruit Znirk (or vice versa) and confirm has alignment. So I'm extremely skeptical of the notion that you would also have such confirmation because there is no need for a double confirmation of a survivor from two different non-scum players. The only sensible way that I can see this making any sense is if you're scum.

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Sabrar
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 19, 2017 9:03 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:You're claiming that you thought you and Znirk were lovers D1 and expected that your deaths would be connected.
This is true. Key-word: thought
LaserGuy wrote:You also claimed your D1 PM revealed this info as well as confirming Znirk as survivor.
This is not. Key-word: it was not revelead, just hinted at.
LaserGuy wrote:I find it very hard to believe that you would have jumped to the conclusion that this was the case if the PM hadn't spelled it out, or wouldn't have attempt to clarify such a hidden trait with such serious gameplay implications.
That is your prerogative, I'm not gonna explain it a third time.
LaserGuy wrote:Given that you aren't lovers, I have a hard time believing that your role PM would be so poorly written that an experienced player would misconstrue the text to arrive at that conclusion
In WoT2 SirGabriel's role-pm hinted at there being no Black Ajah in the game (or at least he genuinely believed so). That's why I blamed jimbob here.
LaserGuy wrote:The second and third points are independent of the timeline. We know that jimbob was able to recruit Znirk (or vice versa) and confirm has alignment. So I'm extremely skeptical of the notion that you would also have such confirmation because there is no need for a double confirmation of a survivor from two different non-scum players.
Don't you see? I don't have confirmation, I only thought that I had. Where's the contradiction here?


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