Sorry about the delays guys. As I said, I've been traveling so it's hard to put together anything of substance for most of the day. Okay, first I'll lay out my case against YOLO (and his partner, or possibly partners). In a separate post I'll try to respond to some more recent business.
So I've spent a lot of time thinking about this, and realized that I've been making a very basic mistake. I've been reading through player-by-player, noting who they've been talking to and how they've been voting. The problem that I've realized is that this doesn't account for the fact that scum are actively colluding. Reading one player at a time wasn't giving me the whole story, because I wasn't seeing how people were posting in relation to each other in real time. So I went back to the start of the thread and starting looking for patterns of behavior, and a few players suddenly stood out to me as group: #HBC | YOLOSWAG, #HBC | Zyth and jimbobmacdoodle
Here's what I saw:
D1 - jimbob feels "off". This was read by several players, including mpolo, GoP, and bessie. I think there's two likely reasons for this. The first is, as plytho astutely pointed
out on D1, that jimbob hasn't played scum in over a year, and is uncomfortable with it in general. I think the other reason that he felt off is due to being forced to act in somewhat unnatural ways due to his daychat interactions. In particular, my feeling is that YOLO and jimbob had planned from D1 for YOLO to bus jimbob all game.
build up the dimochka wagon. Votes come within a few posts of each other, neither with any justification at the time.
The wagon gets up to 5, then YOLOSWAG starts the bus here
. The pressure is firmly on dimochka at this point, but YOLO is going to let off for a bit.
YOLOSWAG flips his vote to jimbob here
for no stated reason.
jimbob passes dimochka in the vote totals, then ties it himself
6 posts later, YOLO switches back to dimochka
, pushing the lynch back to the townie and preventing the wagon from rolling over jimbob. His defense of this move is very half-hearted
Lynch goes through against dimochka, scum team kills plytho who is one of the only players reading YOLO and jim as both scummy.
Play on D2 starts with YOLO bussing jimbob. Here's a vote with no content
, followed by a very lazy back
between jimbob and YOLO. Seriously, does this pass for scumhunting in your part of the world YOLO? YOLO never follows up on this exchange.
YOLO is absent for a few days. FrozenFlame put out a vote on mpolo:jimbob jumps infollowed quickly by Zyth
During this period, Zyth reads YOLO is town based on no evidence
. He has also never, in the entire game, put a solid read on jimbob, IIRC.
When he starts posting again, YOLO quickly moves on to other targets without putting any further pressure on jimbob. This post is interesting because he starts looking "outside the major D1 wagons" for lynch candidates. Makes sense because he doesn't want to draw attention to the fact that the scum team is on the dimochka train.
YOLO adds to the pressure on mpolo in this post. Again, note here how he's simultaneously calling jimbob scummy without putting any effort into doing anything about it.
Following this, Zyth votes for mpolo
A few posts later, here's YOLOSWAG joining in
with no justification
And here's jimbob joining the party shortly after that
It's interesting to note here how consistently YOLOSWAG mentions his scum read on jimbob but 1) never really makes a case for him being scummy, and 2) votes with him pretty consistently, across multiple wagons. In fact, the only wagons that they haven't both been on are the D1 jimbob wagon and the wagon with Carlington, who jimbob was reading as town. If you are town, why would you keep voting with your scummiest read? Why wouldn't you bother to pressure your scummiest read? This behaviour makes no sense for a townie. Look at the interactions above between YOLO and jimbob in comparison to bessie
. bessie hounded jimbob for most of D1, and jimbob was obviously uncomfortable and defensive. YOLO's pushes are lazy and pointless, and jimbob's responses are unconcerned. jimbob knows that YOLO isn't a threat, and is responding accordingly.
mpolo claims indie, so they jump off the wagon. Here's Zyth switching to Carlington
A few posts later, here's YOLOSWAG does the same.
This pretty much secures the lynch on Carlington.
Near the end of the day, there's this weird interaction between the three of them and GoP.
At two votes on GoP, jimbob
starts moving the wagon that way.The very next post
, YOLOSWAG outs Zyth's connection with him
and two posts later
Zyth rolls over and gives him up, even though GoP was in no danger at that point, but he crushes the counter-wagon anyway. I'm not certain what the goal of this play was, beyond getting GoP's connection to Zyth out in the open. At a guess, it may be that they were hoping to put a target on GoP's head for the SK, but I'm not sure. Or Zyth is the SK and just doesn't care about Gopher flipping town.
The day ends with YOLO bussing jimbob again
pointing to jimbob's record despite the fact that their voting patterns are virtually identical.
Carlington gets lynched as planned.
What's team scum doing D3? Trying to lynch SDK.
getting the ball rolling.
wants to force the vote to jimbob/SDK, knowing that GoP prefers SDK to jimbob.
It's clear here that YOLO doesn't have a case
against jimbob. He just wants to force town to go after SDK.
jimbob is also advocating for going after SDK
. Yes, he's pushing back against YOLO here too, but obviously nobody was ever going to agree to the crossvote. It was just to focus the pressure on SDK. They put out a plausible case for it being either jimbob or SDK and hope one of us (Gopher) sides with them on SDK without drawing attention to themselves. And, hey, look, mission fucking accomplished
It's clear if you ignore the constant bussing of jimbob by YOLO that these two are working together. It's very clever... they spend at most of their posts talking about people that they find scummy (eg. YOLO bussing jimbob), while quietly moving their votes around from townie to townie as a bloc. I'm guessing jimbob has the weakest power of the team (certainly if he's false inventor and YOLO is ascetic or commuter, YOLO would want to stay alive). I certainly feels like Zyth is part of the team as well, except that balance-wise, it seems extremely unfavorable to town for there to be three mafia, an SK, and an anti-town indie (mpolo), especially as that would mean we apparently have no available killing powers.
At this point, I think it's more likely that the scum team is just jimbob and YOLOSWAG. Zyth as serial killer with a guardian angel feels about right to me in terms of the balance.
As far as claims go, Zyth's sounds absolutely absurd to me. A player claims to be a guardian angel, and you aren't even going to take the time to check if they might be targeting you? And then you go and try to kill that player instead of scum? If Zyth really is town, he may have thrown the game by using his vig kill in this fashion. My feeling is that this is just covering his tracks though.