#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:Why does his claim necessitate him being town?
Not sure if this was addressed to me, but I'll answer it anyway. Carlington's claim doesn't necessitate him being town, but I don't think I've ever seen a scum backup that gets townie powers. There's a first time for everything of course, but I'm not expecting any particularly unusual roles. That being said, I am surprised by how his power works - I'd assumed it to be a case of either getting the ability of the first person to die or choosing one and then being fixed as that new role.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:That's L-1 I believe. Please nobody else vote for Carlington until everybody has had a chance to contribute further. I don't agree with the lynch anyway, and I believe his claim (I'd guessed that he was backup based on the claim already).
HOW IN THE WORLD DID YOU GUESS THAT!? No seriously, how could you have possibly made a guess like that with any kind of confidence? This is actually stunning to me
Luck, with a hint of meta. Based on his comment, he had no action N1. That immediately rules out most of the common power roles we see around here, leaving only Mason, PGO, backup, and 1-shot abilities (such as 1-shot vig). PGO was ruled out by his comment about not being targeted by anybody - that could easily have explained one of the two deaths last night, so he would have been very mistaken to assume he wasn't targeted, and I doubt a Mason would have claimed any night results, negative or otherwise when there's at least 2 still alive. The others were all possible, and I would not have been at all surprised to be wrong, but when his claim matched my guess, it simply reinforced my town read on him.
SDK wrote:jimbob, could you elaborate on your mpolo SK scum read, please? This is a bit of a messy read where it looks like you're taking some of what he's saying at face value, then turning around and saying he's lying and is the SK. What's the deal?
Sorry about the messiness of the read, I'll try again for you:
I'm assuming that mpolo is not Town, as Town should (generally) not lie (there are small cases where they should, but I doubt this is one of them). This makes him either mafia, SK, another indie with a reason to lie, or Guardian Angel as claimed. As stated in my earlier read, I do not believe him to be Mafia. I feel like mafia will are generally not going to be lazy and show casual indifference to what is going on. In contrast, mpolo has been making very little effort to find scum (e.g. one solitary scum read). A Serial Killer needs to try to avoid standing out, both by not looking too townie (so as not to attract the scum night kill), nor by looking too scummy via inactivity and low effort (so as not to attract the lynch or vig shots). It's a difficult line to tread, which is why I reckon SK wins are so rare. This last point is also true of some other indies (e.g. Survivor), but I think for my own sanity I am going to rule out the majority of them, as I don't see why mpolo would have lied about his win condition in most cases that I can think of (lyncher possibly being the only exception). I could see a Guardian Angel role not being too bothered about who is scum, especially as the alignment of the target is unknown.
Summary - activity quality points to either SK!mpolo or GA!mpolo.
Next question is which is he? I've just reread mpolo all the way through from the start of D1, and here are some posts that I think are relevant to the argument:
In post 1 mpolo wrote:I suspect there's going to be a good amount of independent roles as well, though.
Suggests that he might be an independent role (SK included in this possibility), as I can't see any reason to say why there might be a "good amount" of indies wihout having some knowledge of the setup.
In post 4 mpolo wrote:The most common neutrals around here are certainly serial killer and survivor. Occasionally a lyncher. Occasionally a bodyguard. Occasionally a jester. Occasionally something more flashy.
If there is a serial killer, I would presume that either (1) town has access to a kill (vigilante) or (2) the mafia is appropriately reduced in size. As either jimbob or SDK said, here on D1, there's not a whole lot of point getting worried about it, since we won't likely be able to differentiate the two types of scum read before the mafia has begun coordinating. (I suppose there are some times that we get the whole mafia on interactions on D1, but those are the exception rather than the rule.)
Since when was a bodyguard a neutral character? If mpolo is a Guardian Angel, I'd expect him to have included that in the list instead there, since we've seen it around in recent past (MMM2)
. That last comment was written before I saw that he never actually claimed the name of his role, so I guess he might have been mixing the two up. Mpolo also here joins on with mine and SDK's earlier comments about SKs and being difficult to detect them D1.
In post 7 mpolo wrote:It seems likely that there is a serial killer. And supporters of the Crimson King, presumably Randall Flagg + 1-2 more.
If we're really lucky, mafia is reduced in size due to the serial killer, 10*-2-1 => 7*-2-1 (lumping non-nefarious independents, if they exist, with town).
However, it seems more likely that we are at 6*-3-1, which means this may be our last day with a majority for town unless we hit paydirt. I think I would prioritize getting the serial killer to take out a kill and slow this down enough to analyze.
I mentioned this in my summary of mpolo's posts in my reads list - I found his "lumping of non-nefarious independents" comment as contradicting a Guardian Angel claim, since a GA could be a nefarious indie, if his target is non-town.
in post 9 mpolo wrote:I agree with SDK that it is near impossible to target the SK, since we won't have connections to go on. Any scum hit would be good, but taking out the SK would be better, unless he starts targeting mafia tonight. (Which, I suppose, is in his interest.)
Here, he goes from suggesting targeting the SK to deciding that it's impossible to target them. I don't think this adds up. His opinions on the matter are very wishy-washy, which, at least if I was in mpolo's shoes, would not be how I'd feel about there being two NKs (for reference see my comments when I was a survivor in Diablo Mafia, in Gojoe - a survivor isn't the same as a GA, but it's very similar in terms of what are threats). To me it feels like he's given the likelihood of an SK lip-service, so as not to be seen to be ignoring it completely, whilst also trying to downplay what can be done by it.
Summary: There are enough inconsistencies prior to his claim that makes me think that he is not who he says he is, leaving SK as the likely candidate. There are also suggestions pointing in that direction anyway.
I will now try to reread Gopher of Pern as my top scum pick. It doesn't look like my vote on mpolo is going to be supported, so I need to decide whether it's worth shifting it, especially as the alternative is Carlington, who I believe to be Town.