Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

For your simulated organized crime needs.

Moderators: jestingrabbit, Moderators General, Prelates

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 6:11 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I could not get redirected, I think (will confirm), as I did not target you.

Did you confirm this?

User avatar
kalira
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 5:03 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby kalira » Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:29 pm UTC

I did send something to Madge. To be honest, I didn't think about the fact that it would give scum!Madge an easy result to fake. That's mostly because I didn't think she was scum. I sent something to her because she has seemed the least suspicious to me of all of you over the course of the play. In any case, what I sent her would be unhelpful to supernatural scum if she ends up being such.
plytho wrote:Isn't bowling just a subcategory of pottery?

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:39 pm UTC

Too bad.

Back to the original plan then, lynch Gopher of Pern, hope he has no ability that could explain Madge seeing him visit her.

User avatar
kalira
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 5:03 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby kalira » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:06 pm UTC

Unless GoP is being a super beer-y townie, town!GoP would not lie about having received information dimochka was scum, so unless mpolo confirms there is no possibility of town!GoP receiving false information from the mod about town!dim, it seems that one of them must be scum. I can't really see them being bussing scummates at this stage of the play -- it doesn't make sense from a game theory perspective, as neither was clearly going into today looking like they were going to be overwhelmingly the desired lynch. (If they were scummates and one had been clearly a logical lynch candidate for today, I could see one of them bussing the other in order to gain town cred and be less likely to be lynched on a future day.)

I remember mentioning on D1 that GoP looked scummy to me, but I also remember dim seeming like he wasn't around too much (perhaps active lurking?). I'm going to have to go back and do a deeper read before I decide which of them I believe more is supernatural.

In the meantime:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I am patient, so if I get it wrong three times, I get to detect if there is a supernatural enemy, instead of picking a person. So tonight, I will know the identity of a supernatural scum.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Dimochka is scum. They are a ghost.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I could not get redirected, I think (will confirm), as I did not target you. I detected supernatural, and your name came up.


GoP, if your power is as you claim, I'm trying to figure out how you believe there might be a possibility of redirection. I.e., if your night result said something along the lines of "dimochka is supernatural," where is the wiggle room for where that might be a false result? (I don't think I'm wording this precisely as I want it to be worded...)

dimochka wrote:vote gopher of pern

because you either got redirected or are lying.


dim, given that we are at potential MYLO, why would you place essentially a OMGUS vote down on GoP without first confirming that you believe him to be scum? You acknowledge the possibility that he's misled town but still place the vote before making sure your feelings on his scummitude, leading to potential supernatural bandwagon onto a townie.
plytho wrote:Isn't bowling just a subcategory of pottery?

User avatar
kalira
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 5:03 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby kalira » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:17 pm UTC

Speaking of,

Has our situation in terms of MYLO/MYPLO/LYLO changed since D4?
plytho wrote:Isn't bowling just a subcategory of pottery?

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:38 pm UTC

kalira wrote:I can't really see them being bussing scummates at this stage of the play -- it doesn't make sense from a game theory perspective, as neither was clearly going into today looking like they were going to be overwhelmingly the desired lynch. (If they were scummates and one had been clearly a logical lynch candidate for today, I could see one of them bussing the other in order to gain town cred and be less likely to be lynched on a future day.)
Gopher of Pern was always going to be the lynch today. His scum-mate is absolutely free to bus him today.

kalira wrote:dim, given that we are at potential MYLO, why would you place essentially a OMGUS vote down on GoP without first confirming that you believe him to be scum?
In MYLO/LYLO an OMGUS vote is the mechanically correct choice because it can't hurt (if townie voted another townie then damage is already done and the OMGUS choice won't change the situation).

User avatar
kalira
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 5:03 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby kalira » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:46 pm UTC

He might have been your clear lynch candidate, but I didn't see overwhelming support for that from everyone else yesterday, or any sort of messages that would make that seem clear.

Your response to my question to dim may be true, now that I think about it. However, I really wish you would let people answer the questions directed at them, especially at times like this. If you ARE wrong about GoP, it might have been a way to uncover supernatural!dim if he slipped up on the explanation.
plytho wrote:Isn't bowling just a subcategory of pottery?

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:52 pm UTC

1. You should ask the others, I got the feeling that dimochka and plytho at least were supporting it (and SirGabriel even voted him). What else do you need after a totally unbelievable claim and admittance of lying before?
2. You're correct in hindsight but it seemed that you were simply not aware of the mechanical side. Besides as any of my games will show I'm incapable of shutting up. Apologies for that.

User avatar
dimochka
Posts: 77
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2011 6:25 pm UTC
Location: Formerly NYC, now LA. He/Him/His please.

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby dimochka » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:56 pm UTC

kalira wrote:dim, given that we are at potential MYLO, why would you place essentially a OMGUS vote down on GoP without first confirming that you believe him to be scum? You acknowledge the possibility that he's misled town but still place the vote before making sure your feelings on his scummitude, leading to potential supernatural bandwagon onto a townie.

Not exactly. First of all, I believe that it was warranted. Second, if GoP is town, then by voting for me he just created the exact same situation you're describing, and my response to him changes nothing. And third, we have six people and four to hammer. All this means is that we shouldn't have another person vote until we decide.

EBWOP: apparently you're all ninjas
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

User avatar
mpolo
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm UTC
Location: Germany

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby mpolo » Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:24 pm UTC

kalira wrote:Speaking of,

Has our situation in terms of MYLO/MYPLO/LYLO changed since D4?


Neither in the sense that "A mislynch is a really bad idea" nor in the sense that "I can't guarantee that mislynch and losing are absolutely inseparable".
Image <-- Evil experiment

User avatar
dimochka
Posts: 77
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2011 6:25 pm UTC
Location: Formerly NYC, now LA. He/Him/His please.

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby dimochka » Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:17 am UTC

Wait what does that mean? Basically that our situation hasn't changed from previous day?
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

User avatar
Gopher of Pern
Posts: 250
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:28 am UTC
Location: Central Coast, Australia

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:38 am UTC

There is no chance that my ability was redirected.

In fact, bringing up the redirection, when there has been no evidence so far of redirection abilities (aside from maybe one of Kalira's gifts), really seems like stretching. It was dimochka who brought it up.

Sabrar, I really hope you are scum, because otherwise you are just wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. If you go back to the original setup you thought this was, there is indeed room there for me to be a cop. I do not see why you think my claim is so unbelievable.

But anyway, another nail in the Sabrar coffin:

Why haven't you brought up the fact that we should No Lynch today?
We are assuming we are at 4/2. We NL today, and go into tomorrow at 3/2. Scum team do not have a roleblock, so Madge, Kalira and myself can all act unimpeded. Dimochka and myself will survive the night (killing one of us off will only confirm the other), and we will have better odds of lynching the correct target on the next day.

Scum likely have a rolecop, especially if we look back at the setup Sabrar proposed. Kinda useless at this juncture.

One point against this plan is if there IS a traitor than can work for the scum team. But the only evidence for that is the WINEY posts from Laserguy and YOLO before they died.

Sabrar, you are a master at manipulating the facts to make town follow you. Going so hard against me...I just wish we had an extra lynch so we could lynch me, and prove you wrong once and for all.
Look In My Face
Stare In My Soul
I Begin To Stupefy

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 4:42 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I do not see why you think my claim is so unbelievable.
The unbelievable part is you getting a guaranteed result after 3 misses.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Why haven't you brought up the fact that we should No Lynch today?
Because it straight up loses the game if dimochka is Town. 3-2 LYLO, scum needs only to wait until dimochka is forced to vote himself (restriction is not lifted until 4 or less players remain) and can quick-hammer afterwards. So you're proposing a losing strategy and try to sell it off as a 'nail in my coffin'. Nice.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Scum likely have a rolecop, especially if we look back at the setup Sabrar proposed.
According to setup it's either rolecop or roleblocker, not both. That's why I'm hoping we can catch Madge with your lynch.

User avatar
Gopher of Pern
Posts: 250
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:28 am UTC
Location: Central Coast, Australia

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Jun 14, 2017 4:52 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I do not see why you think my claim is so unbelievable.
The unbelievable part is you getting a guaranteed result after 3 misses.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Why haven't you brought up the fact that we should No Lynch today?
Because it straight up loses the game if dimochka is Town. 3-2 LYLO, scum needs only to wait until dimochka is forced to vote himself (restriction is not lifted until 4 or less players remain) and can quick-hammer afterwards. So you're proposing a losing strategy and try to sell it off as a 'nail in my coffin'. Nice.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Scum likely have a rolecop, especially if we look back at the setup Sabrar proposed.
According to setup it's either rolecop or roleblocker, not both. That's why I'm hoping we can catch Madge with your lynch.


Why is that so unbelievable? It's not that powerful. One, I have to survive to d5 to use the ability. Two, I have to miss on all my previous actions. Three, you all have to believe me, which you obviously don't. Have you not noticed everyone pretty much has two things added to their regular role, whether that be a voting restriction and a post restriction, or a modification of their ability? I'm telling the truth.

Wasn't that the point of mpolo's rule change? Plus it doesn't matter. Dimochka is scum. So a NL will not result in dimochka being voted by scum. If you want, I will vote dimochka first thing the next day. If I don't, feel free to lynch me.

According to the setup, they are on power tier 3 (going by my analysis before). With my cop, they have 0 T's, which gives them both of roleblocker / rolecop. Not that it matters, as rolecop is essentially useless at this stage anyway, so I don't get your point.
Look In My Face
Stare In My Soul
I Begin To Stupefy

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 5:25 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:With my cop, they have 0 T's, which gives them both of roleblocker / rolecop.
How can you be so sure when setup was modified (see inclusion of Masons and Inventor)? It is impossible to guess at the exact setup unless you already know the roles available to scum.

NL might work with some stipulations but it doesn't get us closer to determine the correct lynch as we don't know which result to trust and have no second chanceto get it right. Your flip might seal the game immediately right now, without us having to guess again.

User avatar
Gopher of Pern
Posts: 250
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:28 am UTC
Location: Central Coast, Australia

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Jun 14, 2017 6:49 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:With my cop, they have 0 T's, which gives them both of roleblocker / rolecop.
How can you be so sure when setup was modified (see inclusion of Masons and Inventor)? It is impossible to guess at the exact setup unless you already know the roles available to scum.

NL might work with some stipulations but it doesn't get us closer to determine the correct lynch as we don't know which result to trust and have no second chanceto get it right. Your flip might seal the game immediately right now, without us having to guess again.


Yes, my flip will seal it, as a win for scum.

It won't help with the current lynch, yes. There is still one more lynch to go after this one though. Town knows one of myself or dimochka are scum. Beyond that, we are not sure. One more nights worth of results will help narrow that down. If I were scum, you would still have to find the other scum. Madge is a possibility, sure. But even so, I could have been setting her up. A NL will provide more information. I find it kinda ironic how you are usually in favour of the percentage town plays, but aren't on this one.

Thing is, your downsides are not downsides, because dimochka is scum. You have my promise that I will vote dimochka at the beginning of the next day. If I don't, just wait until the final 24 hours before lynching me.

Sabrar, if you are indeed town: Why do you think I'm scum? Can you provide anything aside from an unbelievable claim (which, despite the wine, I'll point out that I would not have made up myself as a falseclaim, especially after my analysis on what you think the setup was originally.)? Because I deliberately misled people about my role? I'm a fricken cop! I didn't want scum to pick me off. I did too good a job of it I suppose. I have been consistently town for awhile, and I do not believe I've changed anything this game.

To the rest of you (excluding Dimochka, lying scum): Why are you all following Sabrar so blindly? Seriously, aside from my early day 1 play, there's nothing scummy there. Look back through my posts as if you knew I were town. You will find good reasons for all of them. Sabrar is very conniving, very good at playing the percentage plays for town while working against it. It was even easier this time due to the two scum teams, so he could actually hunt scum.
Look In My Face
Stare In My Soul
I Begin To Stupefy

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:06 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:If I were scum, you would still have to find the other scum. Madge is a possibility, sure. But even so, I could have been setting her up.
Madge claims to have seen you targeting her. If you flip as simple Goon or GF or Ninja or anything that doesn't have a targeting ability then she was lying and is scum. Unfortunately I think you're Rolecop and that won't help us in the end.

Gopher of Pern wrote:A NL will provide more information.
If you can convince Madge to follow my plan then maybe. Good luck with that. My plans are always good for Town even if I'm scum, as acknowledged e.g. here by SDK.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Thing is, your downsides are not downsides, because dimochka is scum.
You should be fully aware that this argument doesn't work.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Sabrar, if you are indeed town: Why do you think I'm scum? Can you provide anything aside from an unbelievable claim (which, despite the wine, I'll point out that I would not have made up myself as a falseclaim, especially after my analysis on what you think the setup was originally.)?
- Your claim is not consistent with previous content, dimochka's claim is.
- Your 'misdirection' is very low-key and I doubt it would make scum specifically think that you're not Cop.
- You have way too much wine.
- Your play is inconsistent with previous town!GoP as in by now you would be attacking me full-out for being scum and not trying to convince me that you're town.

These are off the top of my head, without reading back the thread.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:38 am UTC

dimochka wrote:OK apologies, I am around and reviewing right now. I don't see any logical scenario in which Gopher isn't scum, and it's more than one thing. I'll summarize in a bit. I'm not particularly surprised about his claim. Going to try to identify who his possible remaining scummate is.

Waiting for this.

User avatar
Gopher of Pern
Posts: 250
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:28 am UTC
Location: Central Coast, Australia

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:34 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:- Your claim is not consistent with previous content, dimochka's claim is.
- Your 'misdirection' is very low-key and I doubt it would make scum specifically think that you're not Cop.
- You have way too much wine.
- Your play is inconsistent with previous town!GoP as in by now you would be attacking me full-out for being scum and not trying to convince me that you're town.

These are off the top of my head, without reading back the thread.


How is it not consistent? It is the same as jimbob, except for being in use every night, and I have the extra added benefit.
My misdirection worked, so I don't see your point.
I like wine when it can foil scum. I think it's worked so far.
I am not 100% sure you are scum. I'm about 90% sure. And I have been attacking you. Did you not notice my vote yesterday? Hell, if Laserguy was my buddy I would have hammered him much earlier to prevent them from talking. I'm trying to convince everyone else that I'm town, as pointing out you are scum does me no good if I get lynched anyway.
Look In My Face
Stare In My Soul
I Begin To Stupefy

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:55 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:How is it not consistent?
It is not consistent with your 'misdirection' because I don't believe you meant it that way.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I like wine when it can foil scum.
Ok, let's see what you think about this:
Suppose I'm dimochka's scumbuddy (meaning Znirk was his scum-buddy originally). Clearly dimochka is interested in whta happens to his team-mates. He posts a big analysis D2 and then corrects himself. mpolo publically reminds him that I replaced Znirk. Do you think the above would have happened if Znirk and dimochka were scum-mates?

Gopher of Pern wrote:I am not 100% sure you are scum. I'm about 90% sure. And I have been attacking you. Did you not notice my vote yesterday?
You only started attacking me after I reminded you to be more aggressive.

User avatar
Gopher of Pern
Posts: 250
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:28 am UTC
Location: Central Coast, Australia

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:14 am UTC

Again and again you misrepresent me.

Suppose you are. You only replaced in at the beginning of day 2. Meaning dimochka had no contact with you as a scum buddy yet. Yes, I can see them forgetting that you had replaced Znirk. It's plausible.

No, I started attacking you once you starting misrepresenting me. Just because it's a coincidence you posted that around the same time, means nothing to me.
Look In My Face
Stare In My Soul
I Begin To Stupefy

User avatar
plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 126
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby plytho » Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:18 am UTC

Sabrar vs Gopher really doesn’t feel like town v town, nor scum v scum. Gopher has been pinging me from D1 while I haven’t gotten any pings from Sabrar. So I’m convinced Gopher is scum (and Sabrar isn’t his buddy).

Looking at the others:

Madge: Has been pinging me for a while. Is there a connection between Madge and Gopher (and LaserGuy)? She’s been calling GoP scummy since she read my early case on gopher: here and here.
At the time Madge first called Gopher scummy (based on my case) the heat was off Gopher. I don’t really see any need at that point for Madge to start bussing her teammate. But she was obviously not paying that much attention to the thread at that point.
Still not trusting Gopher here.

I also wouldn’t expect her to put her entire team into a dubious tier here.

I guess I’m not really seeing a strong link.

Dimochka:

Gop as a possible lynch target D3 here

Is already voting for Gopher today, this might be a bus though.

Kalira: I feel scum!kalira would be aware of the pressure on Gopher D4. So this post looks townie.

Here’s the people that were supicious of Gopher:
Sabrar: obviously
Plytho: Is afraid of a Gopher hammer here
Kalira: FoS on gopher here
Madge: willing to vote for Gopher here
SirGabriel: votes here
Dimochka: I don’t really see dimochka pushing Gopher D4. But he was calling him a possible lynch target D3 (see above).

Basically, there was a lot of pressure on Gopher D4. Mainly from Sabrar, but almost everyone else was finding Gopher suspicious. I’d be a bit surprised if town!kalira didn’t notice this, but even more surprised by scum!kalira missing this.


Sabrar: If Sabrar is Gopher’s buddy I feel they’re rightfully winning this game.

I don't have a very strong case here but I think Gopher is scum and his buddy is either Madge or dimochka. With Madge looking scummier and dimochka looking lurkier. I haven't looked at Gopher's own posts yet for this analysis, I'll try to get around to it later today (no promises).
he him his

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:56 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Again and again you misrepresent me.
Yet you do not state how.

Ok, let's consider NL for a minute. What night-actions do need to occur to make this possible? I've considered this in extent and I see no possible configuration that would provide an objectively true result in every scenario if we assume that anyone could be scum. I do have a proposition that works from my pov but obviously that's not good enough.
Please feel free to share your version on how NL will undoubtedly give us more info tomorrow. Please take into account the possibility of a GF as well.

@kalira: would you be willing to reveal just the abilities of all the gifts you can hand out (with nothing said about what went to whom and what remains available)? I would like to check something.

User avatar
plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 126
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby plytho » Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:06 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@kalira: would you be willing to reveal just the abilities of all the gifts you can hand out (with nothing said about what went to whom and what remains available)? I would like to check something.
Can you explain why you're asking this? It sounds like a pretty bad idea, giving scum more information to plan around.
he him his

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:17 am UTC

plytho wrote:Can you explain why you're asking this?

Not without giving a possibility for scum!kalira to mislead. Also I believe that the game will not depend on the gifts, though I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

I like how plytho is actually scum-hunting and finds town-tells instead of jumping at every little ping. I feel he's Town.

User avatar
Gopher of Pern
Posts: 250
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:28 am UTC
Location: Central Coast, Australia

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:18 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Again and again you misrepresent me.
Yet you do not state how.


Yet again, I meant it that way! Misrepresented again.

Not that it matters. No one sees you for what you are. No one else is putting in the effort. You still have not named a single thing since day 1 that cannot be explained by me being town. Even after you ask a blatantly scummy thing, you're not going to be lynched. As for NL, if I'm right, we get new information from myself, kalira, and madge. On the off chance I am wrong, we still get more information from myself and one of kalira and madge, possibly both. Even if I am scum, the worst that happens is you delay my lynch by one day. It's a good deal for getting more information for the last lynch. Has no one not noticed the majority of bad voting mechanics are on the scum side? dethstalker, Laser, both had some vote mechanics the could have been manipulated by scum if they were town, but were on the scum side. So does dimochka.

Sick of arguing with a brick wall.
Look In My Face
Stare In My Soul
I Begin To Stupefy

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:37 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:As for NL, if I'm right, we get new information from myself, kalira, and madge. On the off chance I am wrong, we still get more information from myself and one of kalira and madge, possibly both.
You do not see the underlying problem. If we were not at MYLO then we would have the luxury of not caring who to trust and first lynch dimochka to see whether you are truly Cop and if he turns out to be Town then we can lynch you for lying. However with MYLO this is not the case, we have no way to test the results that you give us without committing ourselves fully. The only thing that could reliably be tested at this point is whether Madge has Tracker and this can be easily averted by scum (whether Madge is scum herself or not).
Yesterday I suggested a specific plan that (together with your result on dimochka) would have guaranteed at least 1 confirmed townie today and possibly 2. Can you do the same for tonight? Who should target whom?

Gopher of Pern wrote:Has no one not noticed the majority of bad voting mechanics are on the scum side? dethstalker, Laser, both had some vote mechanics the could have been manipulated by scum if they were town, but were on the scum side. So does dimochka.
It is interesting that you do not mention your own situation with regards to bessie. If you both survive until LYLO and you are Town then scum can quick-hammer.
Surprisingly I have already noticed this and inquired about it in pm. mpolo stated that all such mechanics would be turned off at LYLO to prevent such things happening. That's why I did not bring up this before.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:39 pm UTC

EBWOP: you have absolutely no idea what goes around in my head. To call me a brick wall is insulting and does not endear me to you.

User avatar
plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 126
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby plytho » Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:03 pm UTC

A couple of things from a read through of Gopher:

In his earliest posts D1 he mentions few of the survivors up to this point. He pushes LaserGuy a bit.

First reads list:
Spoiler:
1. Gopher of Pern as King Lear
2. Sabrar as Regan
3. plytho as Goneril
4. bessie as Edmund
5. dimochka as Cordelia
6. SirGabriel as the Earl of Gloucester
7. Madge as Oswald
8. Znirk as a Servant
9. freezeblade as the Duke of Cornwall
10. DethStalker as the Duke of Burgundy
11. LaserGuy as the King of France
12. SDK as Edgar
13. jimbobmacdoodle as an Officer
14. DGames | Bard as the Earl of Kent
15. #HBC | YOLOSWAG as the Doctor
16. BoomFrog as The Fool

Filtered:
1. Gopher of Pern as King Lear
3. plytho as Goneril
5. dimochka as Cordelia
7. Madge as Oswald
8. Znirk as a Servant
9. freezeblade as the Duke of Cornwall

Most of the survivors are on the townie/neutral side of his list.


This post has me feeling like Gopher is maybe coaching his buddies somewhat? Especially the lines for LaserGuy, Madge and Dimochka:

Gopher of Pern wrote:Madge, needs to post more, but sometimes RL gets in the way.

Sabrar, is still on the townie side, but much less so than day 1.

Kalira is doing a decent job at catching up. Some things do stand out though. Why didn't you put me in the same camp as dimochka, Boomfrog, and Madge, when I had Sabrar at the top of my town list as well?

Laserguy I'm still alright with, but they may be tunnelling a bit too hard on bessie now.

Dimochka I feel needs to post more. I keep seeing 'promise to post' posts, but little content.



This post had me hoping for some interesting content on Madge and dimochka. Unfortunately there’s only this post on dimochka, saying dimochka’s reads list seems accurate. Which doesn’t feel like something one would point out about a buddy. But it’s possible. It’s not the kind of tell that leads to a wagon.

There’s no read on Madge that Day or the beginning of the next Day. Which means Gopher might have had trouble coming up with the ‘right’ reads post on Madge?

I am leaning towards Madge as the third scum. Mostly because I don't think Gopher's bussing dimochka. He's been calling dimochka scummy since D4. Motivation: diochka's claim is the least believable. On the other hand Gopher might have felt the pressure D4 and decided to distance himself from his buddy. If we'd lynch dimochka and he flips scum this would seemingly confirm Gopher's cop ability. Likewise, if we lynch Gopher and he flips scum, dimochka looks townie.

I guess I really can't tell. Still leaning Madge though. She feels scummier. She could have helped confirm her ability and she didn't. I have trouble believing that was a mistake.

Gopher of Pern wrote:You still have not named a single thing since day 1 that cannot be explained by me being town.

Isn't that precisely what scum is supposed to do? Don't slip? You can be read as scum without explicitly slipping.
he him his

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 59
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Madge » Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:05 pm UTC

Fwiw the message with my gift is very detailed about what it does, it is not mysterious like if you get me? I feel like it is unlikely that the gift is fake for that reason.

Also, I don't get to choose when to use it. I'm forced to use it tonight. Not sure if any other recipients had that happen with their gift?

So I'd be very upset if it killed me since I had no way of avoiding it. I could see it giving me bad information somehow though?
I'm writing a vampire yaoi novel, here's my accountability link: https://www.beeminder.com/mad/redandwilliam

User avatar
dimochka
Posts: 77
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2011 6:25 pm UTC
Location: Formerly NYC, now LA. He/Him/His please.

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby dimochka » Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:49 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:There is no chance that my ability was redirected.

In fact, bringing up the redirection, when there has been no evidence so far of redirection abilities (aside from maybe one of Kalira's gifts), really seems like stretching. It was dimochka who brought it up.

No, that's actually called considering different possibilities. The fact that you point this out as "Stretching" shows that you don't want people to consider alternatives. We can't afford to make a mistake right now.
Gopher of Pern wrote:Why haven't you brought up the fact that we should No Lynch today?

I know this wasn't directed at me but I considered it. For me it didn't make sense for two reasons. #1 given your response to my question, there is no other option other than you lying about the result to try and stay in line with your previous day claim. And #2 given that both Yolo and LG mentioned a traitor, I'm not entirely sure that they both made it up, as they are on different teams.

Your claims have been inconsistent, your role that has a "cushion" is unlikely to me and sounds like something VERY convenient for scum (because having a role of "here try to use this cop a few times, but if you're that wrong after 3 days the mod will still give you a right answer" does not sound like something that would happen). By the way, is this after 3 failures? Or is this only if the first 3 fail? Are you going to have another one of those "I know who's scum result because my powers told me and it can't get redirected" tomorrow too? It's easy to make up a modification to your powers when some other people are actually constricted by voting mechanics.

Gopher of Pern wrote:if Laserguy was my buddy I would have hammered him much earlier to prevent them from talking.

This is complete wine and means nothing. As do a lot of other statements today since you're scum. Your scum reads this game have been exceedingly wrong - and mind you, this is with a supposed cop action. You've mentioned trying to figure out people's roles and votes early in D1 which did not seem helpful (I already mentioned this earlier) and it was surprising how you accepted a lot of the mechanics immediately while apparently not having one yourself (the not having it isn't scummy, but the way you talked about it was).

Looking back at your interaction specifically with kalira/madge/plytho (I'm keeping sabrar out of this because I simply don't you see you two being on the same team):
D1 you point to plytho's list and ask why his top town reads are there when you read them as neutral, yet you have him at the top of your list (after old sabrar). Also of note, you leave me out of your analysis several times throughout the days (one of the examples is on D1, where you mention both Sabrar and Boomfrog having madge/kalira/me at the top of their list, yet only ask about the other two. There are other examples in D1 and other days). Willing not to lynch madge d2 due to RL (that's fine). Analysis of plytho with a conclusion of likely town due to being right about dethstalker, even though disagree with list. Puts him as helpful but easily swayed. Quick question to madge re: her vote on SirG. Some disagreement with plytho about revealing bessie's mason-mate (doesn't feel like a disagreement between teammates). Further analysis of plytho show that you yourself have been going back and not seeing why you said some of the things you did (could be honest, but could equally be a way to deflect people analyzing you). Looking back at D3 list you had sabrar and plytho as townie, and the rest as scummy/neutral, without much explanation (ie "had some concerns from before"). Then finding me scummy for being largely correct about my reads, and that post kinda sounds like what someone would say to go back to when trying to lynch someone. Promised a read on madge yet that didn't come. And then madge is declared town by him. Convenient.

This is through mid-d4 so I'm not done and will finish asap. But at this point Gop/madge team seems most likely to me. Which is somewhat surprising to me, because while madge has not been playing like a townie, her writing style screams town to me. Though I don't remember the last game that she was scum in. Will go back to find it today unless someone knows.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 3:26 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Though I don't remember the last game that she was scum in. Will go back to find it today unless someone knows.

Pen Pal, Secret Santa 2015

User avatar
dimochka
Posts: 77
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2011 6:25 pm UTC
Location: Formerly NYC, now LA. He/Him/His please.

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby dimochka » Wed Jun 14, 2017 4:21 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:Though I don't remember the last game that she was scum in. Will go back to find it today unless someone knows.

Pen Pal, Secret Santa 2015

Thanks, reviewing now.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

User avatar
Gopher of Pern
Posts: 250
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:28 am UTC
Location: Central Coast, Australia

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Jun 14, 2017 5:41 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:EBWOP: you have absolutely no idea what goes around in my head. To call me a brick wall is insulting and does not endear me to you.


When you constantly ignore my points, it is like talking to a brick wall.

Of course, if you are scum, well played.

There is little to no risk for a NL. Even assuming madge and I are scum, it gives kalira another chance to gift a power. How is that bad?

There is no foolproof plan. Any plan would have you trust Madge, myself or both of us. Still, reducing odds, and another gift? With very minimal drawback?

Plytho, do I have 3 scumbuddies now? All I'm saying is you're reading me primarily as scummy due to my slips day1. Remove them, assume I'm town, and it makes sense.

Dimochka, you want to consider different possibilities? Maybe bring up some that are possible. There is no town redirector, and everyone's results have seemed to be on point, so it is highly unlikely scum would have a redirector, as that would unbalance the scum teams.

Re: NL: You know #1 is bogus, and #2, well, I considered that possibility, but if so, we are likely lost already. I think Laserguy was just taking advantage of YOLO's claim to spread more wine.

I only get a free cop if I get 3 non-supernatural results in a row. So, I would need another few days to get it back again. I don't think that will happen. I still don't get why it's easy? I would have made up a fake voting thing. Like Madge's convenient one.

Exceedingly wrong? I'm pretty sure I've been on point with the supernatural ones (though 2 haven't been revealed yet.) I did pick YOLO and Bard. Yes, I got bessie and Boomfrog wrong. You are exaggerating.

Just a few points to show how Dim is wrong. No point engaging them when I know they are scum.

Seriously, if I were scum, I'd have given up by now, if only to limit links between myself and my scumbuddy. It's almost always better to cut your losses. But yes, more WINE.
Look In My Face
Stare In My Soul
I Begin To Stupefy

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 6:52 pm UTC

Even if you're Town GF is a possibility meaning we cannot base our decisions on your results. Scum has 2 kills to prevent the use of kalira's gift from tonight meaning it is very unlikely that it will produce a result that actually helps us. NL has little risk, little reward, potential for scum for more wine. I have a plan that is likely to guarantee some result but you'll just claim that I'm GF. I was actually considering NL (and mentioned the plan earlier) just to continue our discussion until I felt your animosity towards me.

User avatar
plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 126
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby plytho » Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:30 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Plytho, do I have 3 scumbuddies now? All I'm saying is you're reading me primarily as scummy due to my slips day1. Remove them, assume I'm town, and it makes sense.

I don't think you have 3 buddies. I think you have one buddy left and I'm not sure who it is.

I can read anyone and assume they're town and it will make sense. That's what good scum play looks like.

When I read dimochka and assume he's town it makes sense. You say he's definitely scum because you supposedly copped him. But your strong tell is that his claim is weak. Assume he's town and it all makes sense.
he him his

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:11 pm UTC

Writing this out because bored.

Original plan for NL (we can reasonably assume that no roleblock or redirection remains):
Gopher of Pern targets me
Madge targets plytho
kalira gives gift to dimochka or Gopher of Pern, whichever she feels is townier
plytho targets randomly
I target randomly (just in case Madge decides to track me for whatever reason)

Possible results:
1.a Gopher admits that I'm Town and starts actual scum-hunting among the rest of the players or
1.b Gopher claims I'm scum at which point we finally lynch him.
2. scum!Madge has 20% chance of guessing correctly. If Madge and plytho disagree then kalira and me are confirmed townies.
3. Possible townie gets a gift

Drawbacks:
Gopher of Pern will claim that I copped as Town but am GF
Scum knows who the gift went to and will kill them before it becomes useful

Scenarios (depending on who gets NK-d)
- Gopher of Pern is killed: assuming flip confirms his ability we can kill dimochka plus we have good info on Madge -> never gonna happen
- Madge is killed: no info but potential of mislynch reduced a bit
- dimochka is killed: see first point, unlikely
- kalira is killed: we have info on Madge
- plytho is killed: we don't have any info at all
- I get killed: we have info on Madge

Drawback remains however we shuffle these targets, if scum knows who Madge will target they will simply kill that player. If Madge targets randomly then it allows for scum!Madge to claim to have targeted the dead player anyway and we'll have no way of distinguishing that from an unlucky town!Madge. Still, this is what offers the most chance for Madge to clear herself, so if we should go the NL route then Madge will need to randomly target between kalira, plytho and myself as we can't be her scum-buddy.

User avatar
kalira
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 5:03 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby kalira » Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:45 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@kalira: would you be willing to reveal just the abilities of all the gifts you can hand out (with nothing said about what went to whom and what remains available)? I would like to check something.


To be perfectly frank, it worries me when you say you want to "check something." Game probably won't depend on my gifts, but with us being this close to losing, I'm slightly suspect of the request on its surface. Would like opinions from others before agreeing to do so.
plytho wrote:Isn't bowling just a subcategory of pottery?

User avatar
Gopher of Pern
Posts: 250
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:28 am UTC
Location: Central Coast, Australia

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:09 am UTC

plytho, you thought I were coaching three people. They can't all be scum. So I'd been coaching town too?

Sabrar, at this stage, I would feel that Madge is more likely GF if you come back as town. And your thinking is that the gift will not be immediately useful. I did have a bulletproof vest they was useful in WoT Mafia.

I don't think kalira should give gift to myself or dimochka. Whoever gets lynched, the other is likely to get killed in the night, due to being confirmed town. If kalira gifts to yourself or plytho, and madge can target plytho, who targets randomly. If plytho dies, that would point to madge as being scum. If madge gets plythos target wrong, it points to her being scum.

Yeah, I think with the change that kalira targets yourself or plytho, that plan could work. It is unlikely that kaliras gift will still be out there, but theres a chance, and we can get more info on Madge.

If I cop you, and you turn up scum though...well, good game then.
Look In My Face
Stare In My Soul
I Begin To Stupefy

User avatar
kalira
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 5:03 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby kalira » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:46 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:If I cop you, and you turn up scum though...well, good game then.


This does make me wonder... Why haven't you copped Sabrar before now?
plytho wrote:Isn't bowling just a subcategory of pottery?


Return to “Mafia”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests