Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

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DGames | Bard
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby DGames | Bard » Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:40 am UTC

Oh my god. I just lost a huge post with an entire synopsis of my play, general thoughts, etc. T________T

I keep forgetting that xkcd uses different forum software and posts don't automatically save/you can't click 'back' to retrieve write-ups that haven't posted yet.

WELP

I'll come back later when I feel more motivated to do a quick write up. XD

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Madge
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby Madge » Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:50 am UTC

Get the lazarus chrome/firefox extension, it has saved my butt many a time but you normally don't notice it was there.

I had a good fun time playing this game once we got to D3 or so and had stuff to chew on, but mannn I am kind of annoyed at the balance: we mislynched ONCE out of FIVE LYNCHES and that was enough to bring us down. How unlucky do we have to get you know? :P
I'm writing a vampire yaoi novel, here's my accountability link: https://www.beeminder.com/mad/redandwilliam

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby mpolo » Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:28 am UTC

Madge wrote:I had a good fun time playing this game once we got to D3 or so and had stuff to chew on, but mannn I am kind of annoyed at the balance: we mislynched ONCE out of FIVE LYNCHES and that was enough to bring us down. How unlucky do we have to get you know? :P


As Sabrar says, you can't really count on secondary mechanisms taking care of balancing. On the other hand, this forum has a pretty high town win quota. I am truly sorry for the frustration here -- it was completely unforeseen.
Image <-- Evil experiment

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bessie
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby bessie » Sat Jun 17, 2017 6:07 pm UTC

Thank you mpolo this game will be one of my favorites.

Congratulations phantoms and survivor, I think scum would have won this game even if kalira had been town instead of survivor. I’ve already left most of my thoughts re their brilliant play in the Gojoe thread as the game progressed (missed D5 sorry).

#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:YOLO for MVP.

Good game all. I think letting people who have been nightkilled replace back into the game is against the spirit of the game though, despite it being common practice.
YOLOSWAG, I don’t think anyone likes zombie replacements, but unfortunately real life happens and often we don’t have enough replacements as we have so few games the regular players sign up for every game. Madge and kalira usually volunteer as replacements instead of signing up (and I’ve done this too when I’ve seen a new name on the signup list). It was just unfortunate that we needed two on D1 (and we really needed three). And others too have previously complained that they’ve NKed a player to remove them from the game and were annoyed to see the dead player return as a replacement.
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:EBWOP: got it. It was to create wine and lead Town towards jimbob. Yep, knew I shouldn't have posted that last bit on instinct.
Maybe Regan was killed because your reads were good. Hmm, I’m a bit amused that someone wanted Sabrar out of the game, and now he’s back. Someone out there must be quite annoyed.
I’m laughing a little thinking about how different this game would have been if Sabrar replaced DethStalker instead of Znirk. :)


Sabrar wrote:4-3-1 without Doc and the only protection in the hands of Survivor is not MYPLO. It is not MYLO and it is not LYLO. It's an automatic loss for Town, even with the voting mechanics. With no Vig Survivor should in all cases simply join scum for immediate win. Even with the possibility of Town managing to lynch scum because of my charismatic trait next day would have been 3-2-1 with me dead because of NK and then it's the same situation.
Now I get that Survivor might not want to claim but scum has the numbers to make it work (just like it should have worked in Diablo), especially with Survivor notifying scum that she wants to side with them. I think that declaring MYPLO was very misleading, though it didn't matter in the end.
I don’t agree that this was an automatic loss for town. And in fact it wasn’t. The game went for one more day. For this to be an automatic town loss requires certain choices to be made by everyone (scum, town, and survivor). And those choices may be logical and optimal, but they’re still choices. You bring up the Diablo game, and I think that somewhere jimbob said that his choice would be to help town win if possible (I could be remembering this wrong, I didn’t search the game or Gojoe for the quote). And maybe everyone doesn’t agree on the “best” choice. I thought that the best play for LaserGuy was to yolo it and claim scum and force a NL on D4, but he presented his view on why he didn’t think that would work. I know we argued about this (what is the "right" gameplay) in Diablo too but I didn’t have an opportunity to reread our discussion (bessie had a crap week, see below). I like you Sabrar and I very much enjoy my discussions with you. I would be happy to discuss game mechanics or anything mafia related with you any time. I don’t want you to think that I am arguing with you just to be confrontational. I’ll be around if you want to pick this up.

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: I explicitly mentioned that you were killed because your scum-reads. Too bad it included GoP. :)
My complaint preceded your post by a week, look at the time stamps! And I knew you would figure it out. Here too. :D

Bard, this forum as eaten so many of my posts too! I usually prepare all my posts in a word document because of this. I hope you get motivated enough to reconstruct that post because I would be interested in reading it. Sorry the game was rough for your team, I’ve said before in a previous game that I don’t like lovers and don’t think it is a very fun game mechanic (and I wasn’t very happy about having my death tied to SDK’s win condition either!). Please come back and play with us again someday!


@Madge, traffic lights and RL
Spoiler:
Interesting, the role of traffic lights in my life this past month, when we had been discussing it here. My husband was stopped at a red light a few days ago; a perfectly functioning traffic light, clear weather, mid afternoon, etc. Someone hit him hard enough to completely turn his car around and send him into another lane and another car, and then the guy kept going through the red light, into the intersection, and proceeded to hit two more cars. So I guess sometimes it doesn’t matter if the traffic lights work and your intersection is optimally set up and visibility is good and the stars are aligned, because there are people out there that just suck and you can’t fix suck with a backup power supply.

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Sabrar
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:55 pm UTC

Regarding my 'automatic win' comment (long-winded)
Spoiler:
First of all I meant that in a 'scum can absolutely force the win if they choose to' kind of way and not as 'mod should declare game over', my apologies for not clarifying that. Now let's analyze the situation, going from general to specific:
1. In a vanilla or mostly vanilla game where no relevant night-actions remain an {X}-{X-1}-1 setup allows scum to blackmail Survivor to help them (same "help us for an automatic win or we'll NK you" tactic that was tried in Diablo). Unless Survivor plays against their win-condition (which is forbidden by the rules) they simply must accept the proposition and with that scum achieved parity and has won the game.
2. Now adding night-powers, voting mechanics and making the setup closed changes things quite a bit, so let's look at the info LaserGuy had D4 after all the claims.
- he knows that there are 3 Ghosts
- he can reasonably assume that the message speaks the truth because if it comes from a townie then that player already lied twice, once in the pm and once in their claims. Town should never lie in MYLO so he can assume that sender is really Survivor. Also the confirmation came from kalira who had the claim that most stood out from the setup.
- unless Town started with only 8 members (basically impossible, although I would have said the same about 9 as well), rest of the players must be townies due to math, so not lying about roles.
- therefore Town has access to Cop (Gopher of Pern), Tracker (Madge), useless Cop (Sabrar) and useless Mason with an unknown one-shot ability (SirGabriel).
Scum has access to Roleblocker as relevant ability.
- overall from LaserGuy's pov setup is not closed anymore and there remain no relevant night-actions (after kalira joins scum's side she could reveal the ability given to SirGabriel and if dangerous it can be played around or blocked)

The only potential problem remaining is the voting abilities. From the unknown abilities of Town double-vote seems to be the most dangerous but from previous votals it can be derived that noone can have it. After jimbob's and SDK's flip it is extremely unlikely that 2 more townies would have an ability to screw with the votals, so if there should be such an ability still out there (most likely with Madge who claimed to have something) it would definitely be manifested today and that player could be NK-d, so D5 is 3-2-1 with the same outcome as detailed above (blackmail works if there are at least 2 scum remaining and kalira can't gift the medallion to herself (game-specific rule 6)).

Last point is the one raised by LaserGuy, scum's own disadvantages when it comes to voting.
- plytho's restriction is not a problem, scum doesn't need to change targets.
- dimochka's problem is not an issue. LaserGuy can reveal the info after the last 24 hours began and dimochka unvoted. D5 with 3-3-1 is a bit tricky but can be solved with co-ordination:
1. kalira is told to vote for any townie (say me). After this happens the following votes need to be cast within seconds of each other (agreed in chat N4):
2. LaserGuy votes dimochka
3. dimochka and plytho vote for me
4. LaserGuy hammers me.
All restrictions are in order, Town does not have the numbers to intervene, forum even has the tool for hiding your online status so we cannot anticipate when this would occur.

- now let's consider LaserGuy's situation. Scum wants to orchestrate a 4-4 tie in votals. So all 3 scum plus kalira all vote for a specific player (say me again). All 4 townies vote for plytho for example. The issue here is that a townie (e.g. SirGabriel) might vote for LaserGuy and then revote plytho 30 seconds later (forum prevents multiple posts in quick successions). This should give LaserGuy plenty of time to revote (although admittedly he really needs to camp the thread here). In this hypothetical scenario I would have inquired from mpolo in advance on how he would resolve this situation where mechanical play would guarantee a tie and only timing issues could cause a problem. My solution as a mod would have been probably to declare a hard deadline in which case LaserGuy can simply revote in the last 10 seconds to avoid this situation. However assuming any solution from an impartial mod I believe that town should not have had the chance to lynch scum. We can go into more detail here if you want (especially as this was LaserGuy's main reason for not pushing this line) but this is already too long.

All of the above can be worked out from LaserGuy's own pov, therefore after receiving confirmation from mpolo the plan can be carried out.
Please feel free to point out any mistakes or oversight in the above analysis.

PS: I hope you appreciate my effort in going in so much detail, it took me around a minute to go through the scenarios in my head and more than an hour to type it all out. :)

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DGames | Bard
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby DGames | Bard » Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:47 am UTC

bessie wrote:Bard, this forum as eaten so many of my posts too! I usually prepare all my posts in a word document because of this. I hope you get motivated enough to reconstruct that post because I would be interested in reading it. Sorry the game was rough for your team, I’ve said before in a previous game that I don’t like lovers and don’t think it is a very fun game mechanic (and I wasn’t very happy about having my death tied to SDK’s win condition either!). Please come back and play with us again someday!


You have motivated me to remake the post! :3

(it's not as long and in-depth though, so I'm just going to generalize a lot of things and leave out the small stuff).

Also, this is a little late, but I was not aware of what the memorial Gojoe thread was (in DGames, discussing the game outside of the game thread is not allowed), so I hadn't thought to check out what the thread was. Luckily, I had not checked the thread until after the game was over, but unfortunately was not able to determine the purpose of the thread until after the fact (it would have been fun to leave notes regarding what I was thinking). :O

~Anywho~

Day 1 was going well; Yoloswag and I had distanced each other well and kept ourselves in reasonable spots to avoid crossfire, but eventually the lynch started to look like a toss up between Laser Guy and Dethstalker, which is of course a worst case scenario for me. Given how Dethstalker was posting, and given that Laser Guy was the only other lynch option on the table, I settled with dropping a big hint regarding Laser Guy's alignment to look as though I were forcing a Dethstalker lynch in order to further distance myself from the Guild. It was the best way to attain a lot of credibility at that point while ensuring that Laser Guy would not be lynched.

Going into the night, we opted to risk killing Sabrar because we felt his influence would negatively affect us down the road. Naturally, the scum team was annoyed to find out that Sabrar was allowed to "zombie replace" back in. I am familiar with the general philosophy of this site with respect to zombie replacements and modkills, but it's just weird to me that scum are incentivized not to kill players that are highly active and pro-town when there are inactive slots with no immediate replacements. It is what it is, I suppose.

Anyway, going into Day 2, I was feeling kind of unmotivated about the game. Yolo ends up getting lynched, more scrutiny is put on Laser Guy (which in turn affects me indirectly...not a fan of the unreciprocated Lover's role in this regard). Many players were on to Laser Guy and the walls of my role pm were crumbling around me. I was also pretty sure at this point that Laser Guy was scum with the phantoms. Even if he wasn't, the noose was tightening ever quickly around his neck, and I did not think it would be possible to salvage the game by myself; somehow getting into a 3 man lylo with Laser Guy, myself, and a single unlucky recipient was pretty much going to be impossible. Even then, there was no guarantee we would tie if we were on opposing factions (and I'm the only member of the Guild that couldn't kill Laser Guy, so I was screwed). Regardless, I lazily pushed towards Gopher without putting in much effort (I really did think he was super scummy, lol), but Yolo still got killed.

Night 2, I chose to kill Boomfrog since I suspected he would be a thorn in scum's side down the line. At this point though, I was still pretty sure I was doomed, and alluded as much to the mod prior to going into the day phase.

Day 3 comes around, and I realize that Bessie, the fantastic golden retriever of xkcd mafia lore, had fallen to the darkest of depths via the hands of the phantoms, which was of course the proverbial straw that broke the Bard camel's back. Motivation being at an all time low, I ended up claiming, very lazily defended myself, and then called Sabrar "Scooby Doo," which I surmise was what ultimately got me lynched. I don't think he took very kindly to being referred to as Scooby Doo, but I could just be putting words in his mouth (as opposed to Scooby snacks, which I'm sure he would much rather appreciate ;3).

I think there are a lot of things that can be changed regarding the set up, but I appreciate the concept and the time it took to host the game.

Overall, this game could have played out differently for so many reasons, but I still had fun. It was a nice change of pace. I will certainly return if and when I am looking for action, and I will participate more actively in the Gojoe thread as well when that time comes.

~Thanks for having me, duders.

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Sabrar
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:21 am UTC

DGames | Bard wrote:and then called Sabrar "Scooby Doo," which I surmise was what ultimately got me lynched. I don't think he took very kindly to being referred to as Scooby Doo, but I could just be putting words in his mouth (as opposed to Scooby snacks, which I'm sure he would much rather appreciate ;3).

For the record I just thought you were referring to my avatar and I don't remember having any kind of negative reaction to being called that (otherwise I would have probably mentioned it).

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby DGames | Bard » Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:33 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
DGames | Bard wrote:and then called Sabrar "Scooby Doo," which I surmise was what ultimately got me lynched. I don't think he took very kindly to being referred to as Scooby Doo, but I could just be putting words in his mouth (as opposed to Scooby snacks, which I'm sure he would much rather appreciate ;3).

For the record I just thought you were referring to my avatar and I don't remember having any kind of negative reaction to being called that (otherwise I would have probably mentioned it).


My D3 synopsis largely equated to me being a silly goose; I do not actually assume that referring to you as "Scooby Doo" is what got me lynched. However, it's good to know that I am in the clear for referring to you as Scoobs henceforth without any kind of backlash. :D

(That last part was me kidding again.)

:3
Last edited by DGames | Bard on Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:16 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Sabrar
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:14 am UTC

Detecting tone in written context from someone who I had few chance to interact before was never my forté. :)

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kalira
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby kalira » Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:34 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Town
-secret club members-
dimochka
Madge
freezeblade


BTW, what was this whole secret townie club thing about, Boom?
plytho wrote:Isn't bowling just a subcategory of pottery?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:18 pm UTC

@kalira: see here.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby kalira » Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:01 pm UTC

Ah, I had gotten to that post already but somehow didn't make the connection.
plytho wrote:Isn't bowling just a subcategory of pottery?

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bessie
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby bessie » Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:37 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:PS: I hope you appreciate my effort in going in so much detail, it took me around a minute to go through the scenarios in my head and more than an hour to type it all out. :)
I read everything you post, and appreciate all your efforts. Here’s some rambling thoughts with no real conclusion, mostly redundant, but I wrote it out for you anyway.
Spoiler:
Note that any of these possibilities require full truthful alignment claims by everyone, and they all need to trust these claims, which is not a 100% certain.
Sabrar wrote:1. In a vanilla or mostly vanilla game where no relevant night-actions remain an {X}-{X-1}-1 setup allows scum to blackmail Survivor to help them (same "help us for an automatic win or we'll NK you" tactic that was tried in Diablo). Unless Survivor plays against their win-condition (which is forbidden by the rules) they simply must accept the proposition and with that scum achieved parity and has won the game.
But would survivor really be forced to side with scum (to avoid playing against their win condition)?

If 4-3-1, survivor forces NL, scum kills town, so next day is 3-3-1, survivor must still side with scum. This would be optimal play for survivor, if they trust scum to fulfill their end of the deal.

If 4-3-1 and survivor sides with town to lynch scum, night is 4-2-1, and scum can’t afford to NK survivor, because you can argue that scum would be playing against their win condition. So next day is 3-2-1, survivor sides with town again, night is 3-1-1, day is 2-1-1, town/survivor win. This is similar to what happened in Diablo. Some reasons why this scenario may happen is that players may have an affinity to help town over scum for reasons (creating a situation with more winners, the feeling that you’re helping the “good guys”, personal interactions between players that shouldn’t affect gameplay but do because we’re all human, etc. ). Also, what I really thought was interesting about Diablo, is that jimbob thought that he might have a secondary win condition that would require me to be alive at endgame. That possibility helped a little in keeping the game interesting in the end, without that it probably would have turned into all game mechanics and just processing the votes earlier than it did. If I ever run a game I would like to try out something like bonus win conditions.

Sabrar wrote:- unless Town started with only 8 members (basically impossible, although I would have said the same about 9 as well), rest of the players must be townies due to math, so not lying about roles.
I think this is an area where you and I often disagree. Not everyone agrees on what is a logical or sensible or fair or even fun setup. But I don't want you to think I am trying to argue with you over this, and I certainly don't claim to be experienced at game balance.

Sabrar wrote:Last point is the one raised by LaserGuy, scum's own disadvantages when it comes to voting.
- plytho's restriction is not a problem, scum doesn't need to change targets.
- dimochka's problem is not an issue. LaserGuy can reveal the info after the last 24 hours began and dimochka unvoted. D5 with 3-3-1 is a bit tricky but can be solved with co-ordination:
1. kalira is told to vote for any townie (say me). After this happens the following votes need to be cast within seconds of each other (agreed in chat N4):
2. LaserGuy votes dimochka
3. dimochka and plytho vote for me
4. LaserGuy hammers me.
All restrictions are in order, Town does not have the numbers to intervene, forum even has the tool for hiding your online status so we cannot anticipate when this would occur.

- now let's consider LaserGuy's situation. Scum wants to orchestrate a 4-4 tie in votals. So all 3 scum plus kalira all vote for a specific player (say me again). All 4 townies vote for plytho for example. The issue here is that a townie (e.g. SirGabriel) might vote for LaserGuy and then revote plytho 30 seconds later (forum prevents multiple posts in quick successions). This should give LaserGuy plenty of time to revote (although admittedly he really needs to camp the thread here). In this hypothetical scenario I would have inquired from mpolo in advance on how he would resolve this situation where mechanical play would guarantee a tie and only timing issues could cause a problem. My solution as a mod would have been probably to declare a hard deadline in which case LaserGuy can simply revote in the last 10 seconds to avoid this situation. However assuming any solution from an impartial mod I believe that town should not have had the chance to lynch scum. We can go into more detail here if you want (especially as this was LaserGuy's main reason for not pushing this line) but this is already too long.
Thoughts - scum didn’t need to hammer or vote NL, they only needed to tie the votals at the end of the day to force NL. So at 4-3-1, working it out:
-Town votes LaserGuy (most likely lynch target), scum votes any townie or NL. Result is NL.
-Town votes plytho (or dimochka); scum votes SirGabriel (just picked a townie with no voting power to use as an example). Sabrar, Madge, or Gopher of Pern can manipulate LaserGuy’s vote. Agree with Sabrar that I would have requested some mod ruling on this before deadline, because brute force is not strategy and shouldn’t decide the game. A hard deadline may have been a reasonable solution.
-Best case for town, they would have locked plytho’s vote to Sabrar. Sabrar (4), LaserGuy (4), LaserGuy is lynched.
-Best case for scum, they would have hammered Sabrar. N4 is 3-3-1, kalira’s cooperation is unnecessary so automatic scum win.
-Sub-optimal case for scum, hammer GoP, N4 is 3-3-1, kill SirG, D5 is 2-3-1, kalira switches sides, scum votes Sabrar, town votes LaserGuy, LaserGuy is lynched, N5 is 2-2-1 with a possible bulletproof townie. Town can win.

@Bard, thanks for posting your analysis! The Gojoe thread is the thing that drew me to this forum. I followed games for at least six months before I signed up for one. We occasionally have a player read a spoiler by accident and they request replacement, and cheating is very rare (I hope). That thread has inadvertently saved me so many times when I’ve been lost and sure I was about to blow the game, then I see a burst of activity in the Gojoe thread and even though I can’t read it, I think well, the spectators are talking so the answer must be there somewhere, one more read through and maybe I’ll see it.
DGames | Bard wrote:Day 3 comes around, and I realize that Bessie, the fantastic golden retriever of xkcd mafia lore, had fallen to the darkest of depths via the hands of the phantoms, which was of course the proverbial straw that broke the Bard camel's back. Motivation being at an all time low, I ended up claiming, very lazily defended myself, and then called Sabrar "Scooby Doo," which I surmise was what ultimately got me lynched. I don't think he took very kindly to being referred to as Scooby Doo, but I could just be putting words in his mouth (as opposed to Scooby snacks, which I'm sure he would much rather appreciate ;3).
:D If I was around D3 I was going into super-tunnel mode on LaserGuy, so I’m afraid I would have caused your death anyway. Maybe next time we will be on the same team. Woof!

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:44 pm UTC

bessie wrote:If 4-3-1 and survivor sides with town to lynch scum, night is 4-2-1, and scum can’t afford to NK survivor, because you can argue that scum would be playing against their win condition. So next day is 3-2-1, survivor sides with town again, night is 3-1-1, day is 2-1-1, town/survivor win.

If night begins at 3-1-1 and 2-1-1 means a town/survivor win anyway, then what's stopping scum from killing Survivor? It isn't playing against their win-con at that moment as they are already guaranteed to lose. That makes it impossible for Survivor to side with Town. The only way for scum to win at that point would be Survivor having a change of heart and siding with them at 2-1-1 and at 1-1-1 as well but I see no reason why Survivor would ever play that way.
Will try to react to the rest tomorrow, this just jumped out to me.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby bessie » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:43 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:If night begins at 3-1-1 and 2-1-1 means a town/survivor win anyway, then what's stopping scum from killing Survivor? It isn't playing against their win-con at that moment as they are already guaranteed to lose. That makes it impossible for Survivor to side with Town. The only way for scum to win at that point would be Survivor having a change of heart and siding with them at 2-1-1 and at 1-1-1 as well but I see no reason why Survivor would ever play that way.

We’ve been having this same disagreement since Wheel of Time 1. You determine what you believe is the most logical correct decision for a player based on what you believe is the way the mod set up the game because it is the most logical correct setup. Then you don’t understand why anyone, player or mod, would/could make any choices other than what you decided was optimal. Please read the rest of my post. Sometimes people make illogical decisions, and sometimes they just make mistakes. I know I do.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:05 pm UTC

Just like you I do not want to go on and on about this specific issue, especially because it didn't matter to the outcome of the game. I read the rest of your post as well and fully understand your pov.

bessie wrote:what you believe is the way the mod set up the game because it is the most logical correct setup.
I do tend to disregard setup-elements that I'm convinced would be unbalanced or not fun, that's true. Also I tend to base my own actions on the setup that I have in mind but I don't 'lock' myself to a specific setup when it comes to an analysis with 'full information' as my guesses tend to be pretty inaccurate.
In this case though I think that enough of the setup was already known so that the above plan would have worked.

bessie wrote:Then you don’t understand why anyone, player or mod, would/could make any choices other than what you decided was optimal.
You're absolutely, 100% correct on this part. :)


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