Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

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Sabrar
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:56 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:You're probably bussing laserguy to get townie cred, and will leave me alive to discredit me tomorrow. If there is a third, it's likely dimochka.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Whelp. Plytho/Kalira/Sabrar team? Sabrar did downplay the scum inventor.

LOL. You're just throwing names out left and right, hoping something will stick.

Gopher of Pern wrote: and will leave me alive to discredit me tomorrow.

I was wondering what explanation you would bring up tomorrow to explain why you're still alive, especially after you were so sure that you'd die tonight. That's convenient, isn't it?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:22 am UTC

@SirGabriel: I've tried to show here why it's better to lynch LaserGuy first. It is important that Town does not divide their votes among multiple players because that allows scum to change at last minute and force a mislynch. With plytho unable to switch over to GoP (if he's Town), please change your vote to LaserGuy.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:52 pm UTC

It prevents scum!roleblocker blocking SirGabriel or kalira while claiming to be targeting them with 'useless' ability. Actually dimochka is a good target as well for you, don't know why I left him out.
Basic idea: Suppose scum has RB. If it's LaserGuy it won't be available to them tonight. If it's Gopher of Pern then Madge is lying and it doesn't matter what we do. So the main threat is if scum RB is the unidentified one. We need to make sure that we get at least 1 good info from tonight's actions, however dimochka, you and myself have no useful abilities anymore. Therefore we want to guarantee that out of {SirGabriel, kalira, Madge} we get 1 piece of info/result even if scum blocks/kills 2 of them. If either of you is rb then this plan prevents scum from blocking SirGabriel/kalira and killing the other, or at least it will be verified (if your claims are contradicting) that the last scum is either you or Madge.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:28 pm UTC

Yes, but we can still post until mpolo calls the night. I suggest we all disregard LaserGuy's attempt at deception.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:48 pm UTC

I think it's both.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:22 pm UTC

@all: ideally I would like to have the following claims in order:
- Madge claims who she tracked and what the result was and what her voting-related ability is
- Madge's target claims who they targeted
- each person claims whether they received a gift (this can be done simultaneously with previous item)
- kalira claims who she targeted

@Gopher of Pern: I might have missed it but your first reads on plytho do not seem to be based on anything that you shared with us in the thread. You first mention plytho here and say you are suspicious of his list. You next list him as second most townie player here. You don't really interact with him until this post where you have him as second most scummy simply because of OMGUS (you mention that you need to reread him, still second most scummy is not where you normally put someone who you're unsure about). What gives?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:26 pm UTC

EBWOP: actually, not sure if claiming who received kalira's gift is a good idea. Depends on whether the majority trusts her to be town.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:49 pm UTC

Yes, we can probably skip that. Original post was prepared with the assumption that LaserGuy was simple goon and I was interested to know who was role-blocked (if anyone). Now we don't have to worry about it.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 12, 2017 7:50 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I will be away due to travel. I'm on my phone, so I won't be able to answer your question yet Sabrar. I did notice that you didn't ask for me to claim. But here it is. Dimochka is scum. They are a ghost. If there is a third, it is likely Sabrar.

1. I did not ask you to claim because you're scum and your claim means nothing.
2. I have a truly spectacular wine-y reason why I can't be dimochka's scum-buddy. Just for the sake of conversation please share your thoughts of who else could be the third scum and why.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:20 pm UTC

When looking at those players do you consider their interaction with dimochka and LaserGuy as well, or just their general content? For example what do you think of kalira pushing a LaserGuy lynch on D3?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 5:21 am UTC

@kalira: please claim whether you gave a gift to Madge or not. If yes please share your thought-process why.
kalira wrote:

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:58 am UTC

Scenario 1: kalira claims to have sent gift to Madge. Then I really want to understand why she did that because that allows scum!Madge an easy false-claim for her supposed Tracker-ability.

Scenario 2: kalira claims she didn't target Madge. Then she should claim her original target who then should claim whether they received the gift.
Scenario 2a: they confirm receiving the gift. Conclusion: either Madge is scum or scum team is kalira + her target.
Scenario 2b: they deny receiving the gift. Now we again have 2 possibilities: one of {kalira, Madge} is scum or scum redirected kalira. To exclude possibility of redirection Madge should claim the nature of the gift (exact ability, paraphrasing flavor), then kalira can confirm/deny. If kalira confirms then scum must have redirection (or Madge guessed correctly because scum have rolecop who gives them full role-pm-s), if kalira denies then one of {kalira, Madge} is lying.

TLDR: if kalira denies sending Madge the gift then she should claim who she targeted. That person needs to claim whether they received it. If they deny then Madge needs to claim nature of gift.

We have limited time, please help by providing these claims as soon as possible.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:00 am UTC

Madge wrote:Sabrar: he wants me to target him, but he's claiming a uesless cop role, but it's a mirror image of GoP who seems scummy??
Not true, I wanted you to track plytho.

Madge wrote:Plytho: Laserguy's flip might damn him or clear him, so we get info already. Excluded.
Why would LaserGuy's flip clear him? We are in MYLO if LaserGuy is not scum game is over but his self-hammer clearly proved that he was one. At that point his 1-shot Tracker claim is clearly bogus so no info about plytho will be forthcoming.

Madge wrote:GoP - very suspicious extra claim, scummy IMO, but I already tracked him.
This also doesn't make sense. Tracking is not like Cop, it gives new result each night. Your reason for not tracking GoP should have been his claim of not investigating a specific target last night, instead just getting a specific result. But if you think he's scummy you should have tracked him regardless hoping to catch him in a lie.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:42 am UTC

Collecting Madge's claims about her role power.

Madge wrote:Other aside: in order not to risk revealing my vote power, I will not vote again this game unless necessary. I am doing this to keep the information scum gets to a minimum.
Madge wrote:Together my two powers are less powerful than Bessie's mason chat, IMO.
Madge wrote:I will vote today don't worry. The only condition I won't vote is if my vote power would work against us. Sorry but I gotta do my best.
Madge wrote:Oh and my voting power is I lose my vote if 4 or more people vote for me.

Doesn't add up.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:38 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Regarding already tracking GoP: by getting a negative result last night, my prior that he's a ninja is higher, so I wanted to target someone who wasn't as at risk of being a ninja. Like, "if i was going to see something, I would have seen it last night".
You claim to have seen Gopher of Pern targeting you N3. So now you think that Gopher of Pern might be Ninja when it comes to performing the NK but also has an additional ability which can be tracked?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 6:11 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I could not get redirected, I think (will confirm), as I did not target you.

Did you confirm this?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:39 pm UTC

Too bad.

Back to the original plan then, lynch Gopher of Pern, hope he has no ability that could explain Madge seeing him visit her.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:38 pm UTC

kalira wrote:I can't really see them being bussing scummates at this stage of the play -- it doesn't make sense from a game theory perspective, as neither was clearly going into today looking like they were going to be overwhelmingly the desired lynch. (If they were scummates and one had been clearly a logical lynch candidate for today, I could see one of them bussing the other in order to gain town cred and be less likely to be lynched on a future day.)
Gopher of Pern was always going to be the lynch today. His scum-mate is absolutely free to bus him today.

kalira wrote:dim, given that we are at potential MYLO, why would you place essentially a OMGUS vote down on GoP without first confirming that you believe him to be scum?
In MYLO/LYLO an OMGUS vote is the mechanically correct choice because it can't hurt (if townie voted another townie then damage is already done and the OMGUS choice won't change the situation).

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:52 pm UTC

1. You should ask the others, I got the feeling that dimochka and plytho at least were supporting it (and SirGabriel even voted him). What else do you need after a totally unbelievable claim and admittance of lying before?
2. You're correct in hindsight but it seemed that you were simply not aware of the mechanical side. Besides as any of my games will show I'm incapable of shutting up. Apologies for that.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 4:42 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I do not see why you think my claim is so unbelievable.
The unbelievable part is you getting a guaranteed result after 3 misses.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Why haven't you brought up the fact that we should No Lynch today?
Because it straight up loses the game if dimochka is Town. 3-2 LYLO, scum needs only to wait until dimochka is forced to vote himself (restriction is not lifted until 4 or less players remain) and can quick-hammer afterwards. So you're proposing a losing strategy and try to sell it off as a 'nail in my coffin'. Nice.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Scum likely have a rolecop, especially if we look back at the setup Sabrar proposed.
According to setup it's either rolecop or roleblocker, not both. That's why I'm hoping we can catch Madge with your lynch.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 5:25 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:With my cop, they have 0 T's, which gives them both of roleblocker / rolecop.
How can you be so sure when setup was modified (see inclusion of Masons and Inventor)? It is impossible to guess at the exact setup unless you already know the roles available to scum.

NL might work with some stipulations but it doesn't get us closer to determine the correct lynch as we don't know which result to trust and have no second chanceto get it right. Your flip might seal the game immediately right now, without us having to guess again.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:06 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:If I were scum, you would still have to find the other scum. Madge is a possibility, sure. But even so, I could have been setting her up.
Madge claims to have seen you targeting her. If you flip as simple Goon or GF or Ninja or anything that doesn't have a targeting ability then she was lying and is scum. Unfortunately I think you're Rolecop and that won't help us in the end.

Gopher of Pern wrote:A NL will provide more information.
If you can convince Madge to follow my plan then maybe. Good luck with that. My plans are always good for Town even if I'm scum, as acknowledged e.g. here by SDK.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Thing is, your downsides are not downsides, because dimochka is scum.
You should be fully aware that this argument doesn't work.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Sabrar, if you are indeed town: Why do you think I'm scum? Can you provide anything aside from an unbelievable claim (which, despite the wine, I'll point out that I would not have made up myself as a falseclaim, especially after my analysis on what you think the setup was originally.)?
- Your claim is not consistent with previous content, dimochka's claim is.
- Your 'misdirection' is very low-key and I doubt it would make scum specifically think that you're not Cop.
- You have way too much wine.
- Your play is inconsistent with previous town!GoP as in by now you would be attacking me full-out for being scum and not trying to convince me that you're town.

These are off the top of my head, without reading back the thread.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:38 am UTC

dimochka wrote:OK apologies, I am around and reviewing right now. I don't see any logical scenario in which Gopher isn't scum, and it's more than one thing. I'll summarize in a bit. I'm not particularly surprised about his claim. Going to try to identify who his possible remaining scummate is.

Waiting for this.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:55 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:How is it not consistent?
It is not consistent with your 'misdirection' because I don't believe you meant it that way.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I like wine when it can foil scum.
Ok, let's see what you think about this:
Suppose I'm dimochka's scumbuddy (meaning Znirk was his scum-buddy originally). Clearly dimochka is interested in whta happens to his team-mates. He posts a big analysis D2 and then corrects himself. mpolo publically reminds him that I replaced Znirk. Do you think the above would have happened if Znirk and dimochka were scum-mates?

Gopher of Pern wrote:I am not 100% sure you are scum. I'm about 90% sure. And I have been attacking you. Did you not notice my vote yesterday?
You only started attacking me after I reminded you to be more aggressive.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:56 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Again and again you misrepresent me.
Yet you do not state how.

Ok, let's consider NL for a minute. What night-actions do need to occur to make this possible? I've considered this in extent and I see no possible configuration that would provide an objectively true result in every scenario if we assume that anyone could be scum. I do have a proposition that works from my pov but obviously that's not good enough.
Please feel free to share your version on how NL will undoubtedly give us more info tomorrow. Please take into account the possibility of a GF as well.

@kalira: would you be willing to reveal just the abilities of all the gifts you can hand out (with nothing said about what went to whom and what remains available)? I would like to check something.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:17 am UTC

plytho wrote:Can you explain why you're asking this?

Not without giving a possibility for scum!kalira to mislead. Also I believe that the game will not depend on the gifts, though I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

I like how plytho is actually scum-hunting and finds town-tells instead of jumping at every little ping. I feel he's Town.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:37 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:As for NL, if I'm right, we get new information from myself, kalira, and madge. On the off chance I am wrong, we still get more information from myself and one of kalira and madge, possibly both.
You do not see the underlying problem. If we were not at MYLO then we would have the luxury of not caring who to trust and first lynch dimochka to see whether you are truly Cop and if he turns out to be Town then we can lynch you for lying. However with MYLO this is not the case, we have no way to test the results that you give us without committing ourselves fully. The only thing that could reliably be tested at this point is whether Madge has Tracker and this can be easily averted by scum (whether Madge is scum herself or not).
Yesterday I suggested a specific plan that (together with your result on dimochka) would have guaranteed at least 1 confirmed townie today and possibly 2. Can you do the same for tonight? Who should target whom?

Gopher of Pern wrote:Has no one not noticed the majority of bad voting mechanics are on the scum side? dethstalker, Laser, both had some vote mechanics the could have been manipulated by scum if they were town, but were on the scum side. So does dimochka.
It is interesting that you do not mention your own situation with regards to bessie. If you both survive until LYLO and you are Town then scum can quick-hammer.
Surprisingly I have already noticed this and inquired about it in pm. mpolo stated that all such mechanics would be turned off at LYLO to prevent such things happening. That's why I did not bring up this before.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:39 pm UTC

EBWOP: you have absolutely no idea what goes around in my head. To call me a brick wall is insulting and does not endear me to you.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 3:26 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Though I don't remember the last game that she was scum in. Will go back to find it today unless someone knows.

Pen Pal, Secret Santa 2015

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 6:52 pm UTC

Even if you're Town GF is a possibility meaning we cannot base our decisions on your results. Scum has 2 kills to prevent the use of kalira's gift from tonight meaning it is very unlikely that it will produce a result that actually helps us. NL has little risk, little reward, potential for scum for more wine. I have a plan that is likely to guarantee some result but you'll just claim that I'm GF. I was actually considering NL (and mentioned the plan earlier) just to continue our discussion until I felt your animosity towards me.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:11 pm UTC

Writing this out because bored.

Original plan for NL (we can reasonably assume that no roleblock or redirection remains):
Gopher of Pern targets me
Madge targets plytho
kalira gives gift to dimochka or Gopher of Pern, whichever she feels is townier
plytho targets randomly
I target randomly (just in case Madge decides to track me for whatever reason)

Possible results:
1.a Gopher admits that I'm Town and starts actual scum-hunting among the rest of the players or
1.b Gopher claims I'm scum at which point we finally lynch him.
2. scum!Madge has 20% chance of guessing correctly. If Madge and plytho disagree then kalira and me are confirmed townies.
3. Possible townie gets a gift

Drawbacks:
Gopher of Pern will claim that I copped as Town but am GF
Scum knows who the gift went to and will kill them before it becomes useful

Scenarios (depending on who gets NK-d)
- Gopher of Pern is killed: assuming flip confirms his ability we can kill dimochka plus we have good info on Madge -> never gonna happen
- Madge is killed: no info but potential of mislynch reduced a bit
- dimochka is killed: see first point, unlikely
- kalira is killed: we have info on Madge
- plytho is killed: we don't have any info at all
- I get killed: we have info on Madge

Drawback remains however we shuffle these targets, if scum knows who Madge will target they will simply kill that player. If Madge targets randomly then it allows for scum!Madge to claim to have targeted the dead player anyway and we'll have no way of distinguishing that from an unlucky town!Madge. Still, this is what offers the most chance for Madge to clear herself, so if we should go the NL route then Madge will need to randomly target between kalira, plytho and myself as we can't be her scum-buddy.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:57 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:If kalira gifts to yourself or plytho, and madge can target plytho, who targets randomly. If plytho dies, that would point to madge as being scum. If madge gets plythos target wrong, it points to her being scum.
Nope. Scum wants us not to be able to clear Madge and killing her target is the best way to do that. That's why Madge needs to target randomly and you suggesting otherwise even though I spelled out the reasons extensively is very suspicious.

On another note I've noticed that you selectively don't react to certain arguments, especially when those show your scummy side. Example here and here (second point). Might I ask you to reflect on those matters?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:37 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:You were the one who said madge should target plytho. I was going off your top thing.
And then I pointed out why that's a bad idea and shared my final conclusion at the bottom.

Gopher of Pern wrote:If you want to check madge, get her to target me. I will not die during the night, and you can decide who claims first.
Does not clear her either way if you're scum.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I would assume that there would be little changes from the standard set up.
Snipped the quote (before you accuse me of taking things out of context again). You still do not provide an explanation for specifically thinking zero T. That is a scum-slip due to TMI (too much information).

Gopher of Pern wrote:I had forgotten about bessie's vote on me.
Kind of hard to swallow especially in light of your entrance.

Vote: Gopher of Pern

I'm committed to this.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:46 am UTC

EBWOP: Madge needs to target completely randomly from all players with Tracker. kalira needs to send the gift I'm thinking about to either plytho or myself.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:13 am UTC

EBWOP 2: I believe it does not matter who we lynch today as both dimochka and Gopher of Pern are scum, still the latter is the safer choice.

You know what?

Unvote

so we can discuss this.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:29 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I think zero T, because I am cop. Going from what I said when I fully looked into the standard set up, there was up to 2 T's missing from the setup. Those 2 T's would be filled in by me being a full cop. I'm sorry if I did not make this clear.

Can you go into details how you took into account the Masons and the Inventor? Specifically can you give a line-by-line breakdown on how you determined that there were 2 T-s missing?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:08 am UTC

plytho wrote:Not that committed I guess :D
I'm committed that we should lynch Gopher of Pern today but we can use the time available to discuss things.

plytho wrote:How did you conclude dimochka is scum?
Mostly by finding the other players more townie. Also it makes sense for the last 2 scum to bus each other super-hard in this situation where it already looked very likely that one of them would end up as the lynchee today.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:51 am UTC

Or it still could be Madge. There are a number of things that trouble me about her but that could all be just standard Madge for all I know. I never could read her properly.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:44 am UTC

@dimochka: why didn't you claim PGO? Serious question.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:59 pm UTC

I think setup has been modified to a degree where following the formula on the site is no longer applicable (only the general principle applies). BTW I think that unroleblockable comes from inter-scum balancing, Tier 2 vs Tier 3, called Strong-will. Therefore guild should theoretically have 3 or 4 T-s, allowing only for DCCI, leaving my v1.0 one-shot Doc out (as that is not even in the setup except for DDDD). Ghosts have at most 2 T-s but probably 0 if you are rolecop, let's assume that dimochka is your buddy, we have DCI + 4 other letters to account for 2 Masons + Inventor. Theoretically possible, however Masons should be shared among townies (not only effective against a single type of scum) and probably Inventor as well so it would be kind of silly to assume that all these were attributed on the Ghost side, making them Tier 3. Same problem if we assume you're telling the truth or if Madge is your scum-buddy.
Summary: original setup fits the known info but it was modified so that above analysis has no chance of producing reliable results.


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