X-Men Mafia: Resolution

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heuristically_alone
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby heuristically_alone » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:43 am UTC

Geeze I can't believe I missed out on this excitement. I am inclined to believe peaceful whale is definitely telling the truth. I am also town leaning on Sabrar...for now. I think overall he would have gone for a peaceful whale lynch.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:56 am UTC

Heuristically_alone: Already mentioned I've found heury's exchange with Sabrar a bit off. Lots of tunneling on Sabrar, hasn't really engaged anyone else. Opening post tends to point toward town, but I could see him writing this as scum under several possible scumteams. Definitely not cultist at this point. Scummy.

Gopher of Pern: Only one post of substance, not really much there to work with. Scummy for lack of content.

Request mod prod on Gopher of Pern

Sabrar: I spent a lot of time going back and forth on Sabrar today. My meta read on Sabrar is nowhere near good enough to say whether he ought to have been asking about the cult early were he town and I think his defense is plausible as either town or scum. Interactions with heury point more toward scum!heury and Town!Sabrar than Town!heury and scum!Sabrar. I don't think it's a bus, but it could be TvT. Going with a slight Scum lean for now..

bessie: Pokes Sabrar and I early, but then mostly backs off. Much more passive than she's been in recent games. Like BoomFrog, I'm curious to see some more analysis of the other players from her. Neutral for now.

mpolo: Light on content, not much interaction with anyone. Reads seem okay and consistent with what I've seen from him before. Don't really have enough to go on to put down a solid read here. Neutral for now.

BoomFrog: Lots of setup talk, in-depth discussion of mass IIWAC strategy. Helps the newbies and prods Sabrar a bit about the cult business. If anything, I'd say BoomFrog is probably acting more townie that I've seen previously from him D1, but I don't know whether that's a towntell or a scumtell from him. Marking as a suspicious Town lean.

somitomi: He's newbie town.

The Peaceful Whale: Play has been pretty scummy so far, though I've been caught recently by newbies with weird behaviours seeming scummy as town. Very uncomfortable under any pressure, and I really don't think the "tell me who to vote for" attitude is at all helpful or townie. Doesn't seem likely that he's scum with daychat though as a lot of the issues should have been sorted out before he would ever consider claiming (unless partner is GoP, I guess). Decent chance he's telling the truth about being Town.

Town
LaserGuy
somitomi
Peaceful Whale
BoomFrog
mpolo
bessie
Sabrar
Gopher of Pern
heuristically_alone
Scum

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby bessie » Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:02 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@ Bessie: you never gave your actual opinion on if Sabrar was scum or not. I'd like to see your full list as well, you are currently near the bottom of my list. You've been slinging a lot of mud but have had no follow through.
I’m not sure what you mean by mud slinging, and how this might differ from scumhunting. Perhaps you can provide me with an example?

BoomFrog is correct in that I am lacking in my follow through. I asked for lists and had yet to provide one myself. Non-ordered.

BoomFrog – First seven posts were setup/gameplay/strategy related. That’s normal, we tend to discuss setup a lot. Post eight, he picked up on my caution re Sabrar.
BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar asked a lot of pregame questions about the role powers, but he didn’t ask about protection from cult recruit. Perhaps he also knows we don’t have a cult.
Or perhaps he never played with cult before and didn't see a reason why Doc's power would work against them.

So looking at the possible setups, our main threat is either mafia or cult. Aren’t you at least curious as to what protection town may have against cult, especially if you believe the doctor power won’t protect against cult?
Actually, my tiny Sabrar homunculus says that if he were cult he would have asked more cult rules questions. So I believe Sabrar is (currently) non-cult.

I’m wondering why it took him two more posts to reach this conclusion though:
BoomFrog wrote:Ah, I see Bessie's point about Sabrar. He would be asking questions about weird interactions with cult if his mind went there but he didn't, so that implies he has dismissed cult already as a possibility. Therefore Sabrar is a non-town role that narrows the setup to a mafia setup already. Having never been in a cult game is even more damning because he'd be asking basic cult questions.

Vote Sabrar
This post seems a little, well, non-natural to me. It looks like in the first post quoted above that BoomFrog understood I was implying that Sabrar knew there was no cult in the game, and in the second it looks like it just dawned on him that Sabrar knew there was no cult, earning his immediate vote. Then there is more back-and-forth with Sabrar, and he finally concludes Sabrar is town. I’m not sure what to think of this, because Sabrar is still a lynch candidate so if BoomFrog is scum he could push Sabrar and it wouldn’t be all that suspicious. So I think my read of BoomFrog will be somewhat influenced by my read of Sabrar.

Gopher of Pern – Could use a second post with some updated reads. The first post is mostly setup spec. But there is enough actual content in that post for me to put him very slightly on the townie side of neutral (because I don't believe in neutral reads) pending more content. Gopher, please find time to make a post, or at least a town-scum list. It’s really important everyone contributes today.

heuristically_alone - Short posts, but there’s a lot of them, and he gives a lot of opinions. Like the way he pokes people, but it’s not really enough because it’s all just quick hits, and he doesn’t follow through with any in-depth reads.
heuristically_alone wrote:Geeze I can't believe I missed out on this excitement. I am inclined to believe peaceful whale is definitely telling the truth. I am also town leaning on Sabrar...for now. I think overall he would have gone for a peaceful whale lynch.
Can you explain this please (I want to be sure I understand you correctly)? Do you mean you think Sabrar would have pushed a Peaceful Whale lynch if Sabrar was scum, but because he didn’t you are now town leaning on him?

LaserGuy – Most of his posts so far have been gameplay discussion and questions for other players. The questions were good and helped generate content but LaserGuy up until this page has been a little light on his own analysis. Then there was the suggestion to Peaceful Whale to claim if they were a survivor.
LaserGuy wrote:If you're survivor, it would be very helpful for you to claim it. Would remove a lot of the ambiguity from the setup.
This has been pinging me, because but there was no explanation as to how it would benefit Peaceful Whale to claim. And remove the ambiguity for who? If there is a survivor (jester, serial killer, cult) they already know the setup, and there is absolutely no benefit to any of those alignments for revealing it at this time. And I’m not sure town really needs to know the exact setup today, because we already know for certain we are looking for a two member team, so I think knowing the setup may benefit mafia more on D1, so they can distract us from looking for that team.

mpolo – Early suspicion already discussed by me here for expressing premature concern about a Sabrar wagon, and then agreeing with the wagon in the same paragraph; and for not doing any scumhunting. I feel better about him after this post but my read of mpolo is similar to my read of Gopher of Pern, in that there is enough decent content for me to put him slightly on the townie side of neutral for now, but he really needs to post more to stay there.
mpolo wrote:In general cult is worse than mafia because we will get a lot less flips.
I would think cult is worse than mafia because they are (theoretically) constantly growing and it is a lot easier for them to eventually control the lynch than mafia.

Peaceful Whale – Will accept as currently town for reasons. Peaceful Whale, you are still expected to contribute some decent content. Thank you for following my suggestion for a reads list, can you elaborate on any of those reads, and arrange your list with the towniest player on the top and the scummiest player on the bottom? This would be very helpful for town.

Sabrar – Like usual, I have been neglecting Sabrar this entire game! Yes, I believe he is non-cult. And I had early suspicion that he knew there was no cult in the game, and I still do, because I am having trouble accepting that maybe Sabrar’s superbrain would make an assumption about an unknown instead of simultaneously gathering data calculating every possible scenario. As the day progressed, my scum lean on him became less strong, because I read his content as actual scum hunting, but I think I need to think about Sabrar a little longer before I make a decision on him.

somitomi – Had a slow start, understandable, as this is his second game and he theoretically does not have a mentor to help him this time (but may still have a chat partner). Made a good effort with his reads list.
somitomi wrote:I tried to add some insight into the thoughts behind those posts, because I'm still not that good at expressing my ideas. I put my hands up though, I would like to avoid being lynched.
I think that the best contribution you can make as town is to talk, a lot, and encourage others to talk. Sure, it’s nice when a cop gets a scum result or a watcher sees the night kill, but most of the time scum are caught by their content, not by a random power. So just keep posting, and don’t try to make every post a work of art. I always regretted not posting more in my early games, but I was always worried that I wouldn’t properly communicate what I wanted to say, and I spent a lot of time composing posts so that all my thoughts were well organized and grammatically correct (and I was town in all those games so my lack of posting wasn’t for fear of a scum slip). I still spend a lot of time writing and organizing my posts because I am not a good writer and my thoughts are not linear. But I’m more willing now to post something I’m thinking about, and less worried about being wrong.

And with that goes two more hours of my life. :| I'll try to order that list in my next post.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:08 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Opening post tends to point toward town, but I could see him writing this as scum under several possible scumteams.

Assuming chat was not available during the confirmation phase and that scum only received the name of their buddy and not their role (both of which are standard procedure) then the timeline does not check out for heury to be posting it after consulting with his buddy.

LaserGuy wrote:Interactions with heury point more toward scum!heury and Town!Sabrar than Town!heury and scum!Sabrar. I don't think it's a bus, but it could be TvT. Going with a slight Scum lean for now.
This is inconsistent.

Ninja'd by bessie.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:07 am UTC

Should Storm end the day early will we get some additional time to submit night-actions?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby mpolo » Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:45 am UTC

Ooh. That's a good question, Sabrar. I really need to think about night actions.

After the continued back and forth with Peaceful Whale, I'm fairly satisfied with his being newbie town.

After further posting by Sabrar, I think he is town.

I don't have any real tells about anybody else, though. Gopher of Pern sticks out for not posting, but that's hit and miss as a scum-tell. Will try to re-read over the weekend and see if anything sticks out.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:54 pm UTC

Why haven't I been modkilled yet? Isn't hat what happens when you break a rule? :(

I think maybe I should be killed, and then I'll just watch. Then maybe in a few years I'll be able to play again. :cry:
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby somitomi » Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:13 pm UTC

Okay, here goes an ordered list, with a little explanation attached to the people on the scummy side.
TOWN
bessie
LaserGuy
BoomFrog
Peaceful Whale
mpolo (neutral-ish line)
Sabrar: I think such a thorough person would not dismiss cult like that, but I could be wrong
Gopher of Pern: mainly for lack of content, he didn't say anything suspicious
heuristically_alone: because of the case on Sabrar, but he also didn't do much analysis beyond the initial setup speculation
SCUM
—◯-◯

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby somitomi » Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:13 pm UTC

EBWOP: ninja'd by Peaceful Whale
—◯-◯

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:39 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:Why haven't I been modkilled yet? Isn't hat what happens when you break a rule? :(
- We don't like to modkill anyone.
- We especially don't like mod-killing newbies. We'd like to grow the community and not discourage others to join.
- You still might get your wish, I assume dimochka is asking for advice in the Gojoe thread about the situation.
- The situation is a bit ambiguous (at least in my opinion) because you didn't quote anything that was not public already.

somitomi wrote:heuristically_alone: because of the case on Sabrar
Are you referring here to LaserGuy's case on heury regarding his case on me or an analysis of your own?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby dimochka » Sat Jul 29, 2017 3:01 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Should Storm end the day early will we get some additional time to submit night-actions?

Yes, I'll give up to 24 hours. Storm's action isn't meant to stop night actions.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Why haven't I been modkilled yet? Isn't hat what happens when you break a rule? :(

I think maybe I should be killed, and then I'll just watch. Then maybe in a few years I'll be able to play again. :cry:

I think it's already dealt with. If you would still like to be modkilled / replaced anyways, please let me know. Otherwise just review the rules and do what you need to win (within legal rules) :D
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby heuristically_alone » Sat Jul 29, 2017 3:07 pm UTC

I am against the modkill. If peaceful whale doesn't want to play, let madge replace in so we at least have players posting reads
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby dimochka » Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:54 pm UTC

Per Peaceful Whale's request, he will be replaced. I just reached out to our replacements to see whether they're available. Feel free to continue playing meanwhile. I would optimally prefer not to extend D1, but that's open to discussion.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby bessie » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:10 pm UTC

Unofficial votals:

LaserGuy (1) : BoomFrog

Not voting: heuristically_alone, Gopher of Pern, Sabrar, bessie, mpolo, somitomi, Peaceful Whale, LaserGuy


Fucking hell, the post I just spent the last twenty minutes on just became irrelevant. I may need to go rant at my dog for a while (don’t worry, he loves the attention!).

town
bessie
Peaceful Whale
mpolo
Gopher of Pern
BoomFrog
Sabrar
somitomi
LaserGuy
heuristically_alone
scum

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:52 pm UTC

@bessie: in your read list you do not bring up anything specifically scummy with regards to somitomi (only mentioning that he had an understandably slow start). Why is he so low on your list now?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby bessie » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:55 pm UTC

It's an ordered list. Upon reflection, you and BoomFrog moved up. And Gopher of Pern and mpolo might be moving down.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:48 pm UTC

Phone posting since it's the weekend so I'm just trying to answer questions where I can.

bessie wrote:It's an ordered list. Upon reflection, you and BoomFrog moved up. And Gopher of Pern and mpolo might be moving down.

Why is somitomi lower then GoP?
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:53 pm UTC

@bessie: that doesn't really answer my question. Unless somitomi is around the neutral line (which means you only have 2 scum-reads), you put him on the scummy side but your read-list doesn't explain why.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:02 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@ Bessie: you never gave your actual opinion on if Sabrar was scum or not. I'd like to see your full list as well, you are currently near the bottom of my list. You've been slinging a lot of mud but have had no follow through.
I’m not sure what you mean by mud slinging, and how this might differ from scumhunting. Perhaps you can provide me with an example?

Mud slinging is impling people are scummy but not actually accusing them of being scum. Maybe it's was a bad choice of words though. You were doing it but it's your normal MO to sling mud early D1. I was concerned with the lack of actual scum accusations, not the act of initial poking.


BoomFrog – First seven posts were setup/gameplay/strategy related. That’s normal, we tend to discuss setup a lot. Post eight, he picked up on my caution re Sabrar.
BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar asked a lot of pregame questions about the role powers, but he didn’t ask about protection from cult recruit. Perhaps he also knows we don’t have a cult.
Or perhaps he never played with cult before and didn't see a reason why Doc's power would work against them.

So looking at the possible setups, our main threat is either mafia or cult. Aren’t you at least curious as to what protection town may have against cult, especially if you believe the doctor power won’t protect against cult?
Actually, my tiny Sabrar homunculus says that if he were cult he would have asked more cult rules questions. So I believe Sabrar is (currently) non-cult.

I’m wondering why it took him two more posts to reach this conclusion though:
BoomFrog wrote:Ah, I see Bessie's point about Sabrar. He would be asking questions about weird interactions with cult if his mind went there but he didn't, so that implies he has dismissed cult already as a possibility. Therefore Sabrar is a non-town role that narrows the setup to a mafia setup already. Having never been in a cult game is even more damning because he'd be asking basic cult questions.

Vote Sabrar
This post seems a little, well, non-natural to me. It looks like in the first post quoted above that BoomFrog understood I was implying that Sabrar knew there was no cult in the game, and in the second it looks like it just dawned on him that Sabrar knew there was no cult, earning his immediate vote. Then there is more back-and-forth with Sabrar, and he finally concludes Sabrar is town. I’m not sure what to think of this, because Sabrar is still a lynch candidate so if BoomFrog is scum he could push Sabrar and it wouldn’t be all that suspicious. So I think my read of BoomFrog will be somewhat influenced by my read of Sabrar.

I had initially misunderstood your implication about Sabrar. I somehow thought you were saying he was cult and so he was avoiding asking questions about cult. My post saying he is not cult is actually a completely irrelevant point, defending against an accusation which wasn't made. I'd totally misunderstood you.

Later, I was going back to quote you and ask you how you could both continue attacking him while agreeing with me that he was not cult. Rereading your post led me to realize your actual point which led to me voting Sabrar. Rereading now I have no idea how I got my initial wrong impression.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:24 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:BoomFrog: Lots of setup talk, in-depth discussion of mass IIWAC strategy. Helps the newbies and prods Sabrar a bit about the cult business. If anything, I'd say BoomFrog is probably acting more townie that I've seen previously from him D1, but I don't know whether that's a towntell or a scumtell from him. Marking as a suspicious Town lean.

I was considering preemptively explaining this but wanted to see if of be an issue or not. In my previous two games I engaged in a lot of shenanigans D1 to try and shake things up and get some kind reactions D1 so we could have some kind of real content. That hasn't been necessary this game. Most importantly, with the number of role blocks and redirects flying around I'm not trying to just be barely town enough to avoid the lynch I don't want anyone to be suspicious of me.

In summary, it's a null tell, just like everything I do. :wink:

somitomi: He's newbie town.
Why so sure?
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:28 pm UTC

Suggestions for D2:
- if a player is affected by Storm's Charisma s/he should immediately declare it at the beginning of the day, reveal Storm's identity and not place a vote anytime during the day
- any scum/SK result by a Cop should be revealed towards the middle of the day
- any other result should only revealed be if the investigated player is about to get lynched and we managed to lynch scum today

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:38 pm UTC

bessie wrote:LaserGuy – Most of his posts so far have been gameplay discussion and questions for other players. The questions were good and helped generate content but LaserGuy up until this page has been a little light on his own analysis. Then there was the suggestion to Peaceful Whale to claim if they were a survivor.
LaserGuy wrote:If you're survivor, it would be very helpful for you to claim it. Would remove a lot of the ambiguity from the setup.
This has been pinging me, because but there was no explanation as to how it would benefit Peaceful Whale to claim. And remove the ambiguity for who? If there is a survivor (jester, serial killer, cult) they already know the setup, and there is absolutely no benefit to any of those alignments for revealing it at this time. And I’m not sure town really needs to know the exact setup today, because we already know for certain we are looking for a two member team, so I think knowing the setup may benefit mafia more on D1, so they can distract us from looking for that team.


Benefit to survivor is that they don't get lynched as scum. Benefit to town is that it locks the setup. Yes, we're looking for a two man team (assuming no SK). What happens if there's no kill tonight? Does that mean cult? Or does that mean the kill was blocked? Or Wolverine absorbed the kill? Mafia and cult also may target their recruit/kill differently, so knowing this would help inform town's night actions. Scum already knows most of the pertinent information about the setup (except for existence of SK if it's mafia), so there's very little new information that they get from this claim.

BoomFrog wrote:Why so sure?


He's playing basically the same as last game where he was also newbie town.

BoomFrog wrote:Phone posting since it's the weekend so I'm just trying to answer questions where I can.


Are you going to explain your vote?

@dimochka, did you see this?
LaserGuy wrote:Request mod prod on Gopher of Pern

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:39 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:What did you imagine the standard cult rules would be?
Why did you ask?

To calibrate my read of you. To match your actions with your claimed line of thinking.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:49 pm UTC

@LaserGuy: I do plan to explain my vote, but it involves a lot of quoting and I'll have to wait until I'm on a computer and have a longer block of time tonight.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby dimochka » Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:29 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@dimochka, did you see this?
LaserGuy wrote:Request mod prod on Gopher of Pern

Nope, missed it. Prodding now.

Current Votals:
Laserguy - 1 (Boomfrog)
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby dimochka » Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:25 am UTC

Adnapemit is replacing Peaceful Whale, effective immediately. At this point, no extension is being granted, but if a sizeable number of you feel that it would make a difference, please let me know as much.

Peaceful Whale - thank you for joining, and hope you'll be open to playing another game in the future.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:30 am UTC

Hi adnapemit! Are you Jester? :lol:

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:52 am UTC

Hello adnapemit. Welcome. FYI, "You" have claimed to be gambit, and that you are town. It was pretty convincing.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:15 am UTC

The case of the scummy LaserGuy:

Clue #1: LaserGuy avoids forming an opinion on the Sabrar case. He has plenty of opportunity to comment, but doesn't indicate if he thinks Sabrar is scummy or townie. He also avoids commenting on Peaceful Whale until after it's clear that PW is town.

Analysis: town!LaserGuy would have an opinion on Sabrar, but scum!LaserGuy is hoping that the accusation will stick so that there is no danger of him or his partner being lynched. But avoiding committing he is trying to leave himself wiggle room and see how things play out.

Clue #2: LaserGuy forms a weird opinion of Heuristically_Alone based on his "chummy" conversation with Sabrar. This is the extent of his "case":
LaserGuy wrote:I think what's been bothering me about the discussion between heury/Sabrar is that it feels too... personal? Especially on heury's end of it. There's a lot of these sort of comments:

heuristically_alone wrote:It rather feels like you are already making excuses for if you lose twenty dollars and my self respect as scum again. You seem to care more about winning as town than as scum no matter the unbalanced setup. (See same Shakespeare game)

heuristically_alone wrote:I believe this is what I was referencing. You claim not to care, but at the time as town you REALLY cared and seemed a little upset about the loss as town due to imbalance. But in the bin chicken, you were mafia and seemed not to care so much about the outcome.


There's very little emphasis on Sabrar's actual content of this game, and a lot on what he might be feeling about this or other games. bessie pointed out to me last game that scum tend to do this when they don't really have a strong case against someone (as I did to her in Shakespeare when I was scum). Both that and heury tunneling pretty hard on the whole are pinging me pretty strongly right now.

LaserGuy wrote:Heuristically_alone: Already mentioned I've found heury's exchange with Sabrar a bit off. Lots of tunneling on Sabrar, hasn't really engaged anyone else. Opening post tends to point toward town, but I could see him writing this as scum under several possible scumteams. Definitely not cultist at this point. Scummy.

Sabrar: I spent a lot of time going back and forth on Sabrar today. My meta read on Sabrar is nowhere near good enough to say whether he ought to have been asking about the cult early were he town and I think his defense is plausible as either town or scum. Interactions with heury point more toward scum!heury and Town!Sabrar than Town!heury and scum!Sabrar. I don't think it's a bus, but it could be TvT. Going with a slight Scum lean for now.


Clue #3: LaserGuy as scum likes to choose a seemingly vulnerable target and then manufacture a case against them as seen when he attacked Bessie in Shakespear Mafia.

Analysis: Heuy's been "chummy" with Sabrar because they were secretly discussing wither Peaceful Whale was a jester or not. A conversation started by Sabrar. It's likely that LaserGuy didn't understand why the conversation was weird, but it's weird for LaserGuy to conclude it is scummy just because it's weird. LaserGuy saw things weren't going against Sabrar and decided to pick a target, Heuy is a relatively weak player and has been acting weird.

Conclusion: LaserGuy is scum. His partner is probably among GoP, mpolo and Bessie. Considering there is day chat, scum probably talked about who to target, and I doubt Bessie would have agreed to LaserGuy's plan, so probably mpolo or GoP.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby adnapemit » Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:40 am UTC

Hi! :D
Sabrar wrote:Hi adnapemit! Are you Jester? :lol:

No, I am not a jester.
BoomFrog wrote:Hello adnapemit. Welcome. FYI, "You" have claimed to be gambit, and that you are town. It was pretty convincing.

It would be very confusing if I started claiming anything else then. :P
So I won't, I am town and I am gambit.


Hopefully I will have a proper reads post within a few hours.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jul 30, 2017 6:34 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:The case of the scummy LaserGuy:

Clue #1: LaserGuy avoids forming an opinion on the Sabrar case. He has plenty of opportunity to comment, but doesn't indicate if he thinks Sabrar is scummy or townie. He also avoids commenting on Peaceful Whale until after it's clear that PW is town.


I noted scummy behaviour in PW here, and was pretty sure he was going to be survivor when I suggested he claim it here.

I've been hopeless at reading Sabrar on D1 in all of my games. The conversation around Sabrar was dominated by a meta ping, which I haven't played with Sabrar enough to say anything about one way or the other, and heury's argument with Sabrar, which I found heury the scummier of the two. I'm not sure what more you would have expected me to comment on.

Clue #3: LaserGuy as scum likes to choose a seemingly vulnerable target and then manufacture a case against them as seen when he attacked Bessie in Shakespear Mafia.

Analysis: Heuy's been "chummy" with Sabrar because they were secretly discussing wither Peaceful Whale was a jester or not. A conversation started by Sabrar. It's likely that LaserGuy didn't understand why the conversation was weird, but it's weird for LaserGuy to conclude it is scummy just because it's weird. LaserGuy saw things weren't going against Sabrar and decided to pick a target, Heuy is a relatively weak player and has been acting weird.


You mean here, (maybe) here, here and here? I didn't reference any of those posts in my analysis of heury. Yes, I guessed that was what they were talking about. It didn't seem relevant, so I ignored it.

The posts of heury's the concern me are here where he states Sabrar cares more about his Town games than his Scum ones, repeated here; here where he's claiming that Sabrar's referencing of past games is pre-orchestrated; here again where he claims Sabrar cares more in Town games than scum. The problem is not that he's too "chummy" with Sabrar, it's that his entire line of questioning with Sabrar is based on how emotionally invested in the game heury thinks Sabrar is, not on actual content. Unfortunately, this conversation (as well as the Jester one) constitute the bulk of heury's D1 content: he has no reads except for Peaceful Whale and Sabrar, both well after the bulk of players had already dismissed them from the lynch, and has interacted with virtually no players other than Sabrar.

Not sure how much time I'm going to have to post before the deadline, so going to put down my vote. Hopefully will have time for a quick post tomorrow night.

Vote heuristically_alone

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby mpolo » Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:18 am UTC

I haven't sat down to re-read yet, but hope springs eternal. On the latest exchanges, I think that BoomFrog's case against LaserGuy is stronger than LaserGuy's against heury. The argument against heury requires pulling statements out of context and a fairly tortuous reading of information into them, whereas BoomFrog's argument seems more straightforward, though it does also include a "meta" element.

Have to start another project right now, but expect to be back.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby heuristically_alone » Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:28 am UTC

While obviously I am not happy with the vite on me by Laserguy, I do not believe he should be our first lynch. As of now I know I do not want to lynch adnapemit, sabrar, laserguy, or myself. I'll have reads on the rest of the players with my vote soon though.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby bessie » Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:36 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: that doesn't really answer my question. Unless somitomi is around the neutral line (which means you only have 2 scum-reads), you put him on the scummy side but your read-list doesn't explain why.
I did answer your question. It’s an ordered list. Someone has to be on each end. That’s why I like ordered lists. Too often people make D1 reads lists which group everyone into three groups: neutral leaning town, neutral leaning scum, and neutral. An ordered lists forces you to take a stand on everyone, even if it is only in relation to everyone else.

I thought about it overnight and decided that I wanted to move you and BoomFrog more toward the town end of my list. As a result of moving you more toward the town end, somitomi moved farther away from the town end. That doesn’t necessarily mean my read of somitomi changed (which was never really well defined anyway).

BoomFrog wrote:Phone posting since it's the weekend so I'm just trying to answer questions where I can.

bessie wrote:It's an ordered list. Upon reflection, you and BoomFrog moved up. And Gopher of Pern and mpolo might be moving down.

Why is somitomi lower then GoP?
Because at the time I began to structure the list in my head, which was after I made this post, I was content enough with the content in Gopher's single post to give him the benefit of the doubt, maybe his lack of posting is due to some RL issue. I don’t really see him as the type that purposely lurks to this level as scum.

On the other hand, mpolo’s lurking is looking more and more like active lurking to me. His posts were all Sabrar and setup until I called him out on it, and the he had some analysis up about an hour later (hmm, taking a closer look there is not one strong read and a lot of setup spec). Then there’s this flip on Sabrar and an odd comment.
mpolo wrote:Sabrar is sounding more and more like frustrated town. Which means I need to start looking elsewhere.

Hey chatters, don't forget the main thread! It's lonely here!

Thank you for pointing out to all of us that you don’t have chat.

mpolo wrote:Ooh. That's a good question, Sabrar. I really need to think about night actions.

After the continued back and forth with Peaceful Whale, I'm fairly satisfied with his being newbie town.

After further posting by Sabrar, I think he is town.

I don't have any real tells about anybody else, though. Gopher of Pern sticks out for not posting, but that's hit and miss as a scum-tell. Will try to re-read over the weekend and see if anything sticks out.
Another post on Sabrar, this time following the swing away from him (and a little bit of buddying now that Sabrar is being generally read as more townie than scummy?).

BoomFrog’s reply to my concerns about him here makes sense to me.
BoomFrog wrote:Mud slinging is impling people are scummy but not actually accusing them of being scum. Maybe it's was a bad choice of words though. You were doing it but it's your normal MO to sling mud early D1. I was concerned with the lack of actual scum accusations, not the act of initial poking.
I do tend to do this (imply things and assume my intent is clear to everyone else) and it has been misinterpreted in the past. But I think that the way this played out was more interesting than if I had said “Sabrar you’re blatantly ignoring the threat of cult because you’re mafia/jester/sk and you know we don’t have a cult in this game.”

LaserGuy wrote:
bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:If you're survivor, it would be very helpful for you to claim it. Would remove a lot of the ambiguity from the setup.
This has been pinging me, because but there was no explanation as to how it would benefit Peaceful Whale to claim. And remove the ambiguity for who? If there is a survivor (jester, serial killer, cult) they already know the setup, and there is absolutely no benefit to any of those alignments for revealing it at this time. And I’m not sure town really needs to know the exact setup today, because we already know for certain we are looking for a two member team, so I think knowing the setup may benefit mafia more on D1, so they can distract us from looking for that team.

Benefit to survivor is that they don't get lynched as scum. Benefit to town is that it locks the setup. Yes, we're looking for a two man team (assuming no SK). What happens if there's no kill tonight? Does that mean cult? Or does that mean the kill was blocked? Or Wolverine absorbed the kill? Mafia and cult also may target their recruit/kill differently, so knowing this would help inform town's night actions. Scum already knows most of the pertinent information about the setup (except for existence of SK if it's mafia), so there's very little new information that they get from this claim.
I don’t agree with you. First of all, as I already explained, this reads more like you were more interested in finding out the setup than in explaining to a newbie how this might help them. Second, you do not give a convincing reason as to why town needs to know the exact setup on D1. A serial killer is a definite concern, but we know we have a two man team, and it is a lot easier D1 to find clues to that team than it is to find a single scum. The things that you mentioned might happen N1, well, might happen on N1, and we’ll discuss them on D2. I will think about your point that mafia and cult may target differently, but town isn’t going to coordinate night actins on D1 anyway because most of us aren’t going to claim yet. And the only scum that knows most of the pertinent information is cult, survivor, jester, or sk. Mafia doesn’t, interesting how you missed that. That, and the way you are trying to distract attention away from looking for the known two man team, makes me think you are mafia.

Still to read/comment on: BoomFrog's case on LaserGuy, LaserGuy's reply, and ninja'd by mpolo because I've been working on this for more than an hour. And now ninja'd by heuristically_alone too. Hitting submit, I'll reply to the rest later.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:19 am UTC

@heuristically_alone: why are you against a LaserGuy lynch?

@bessie: thank you for explaining, for me that would mean that you had very few scum-reads when you made the ordered list.
Another question: with you thinking LaserGuy to be mafia, does that change your read on heury?

I do not agree with everything BoomFrog brings up in his case about LaserGuy but he makes good points. I had my own reservations about LaserGuy's content and I think heury is Town, therefore

Vote: LaserGuy

@LaserGuy: any comments to my points here and here?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:33 am UTC

Town
heuristically_alone
BoomFrog
bessie
Gopher of Pern
somitomi
mpolo
LaserGuy
Scum

Town or Jester: adnapemit

Alternatively, scum team could be bessie+BoomFrog which is a terrifying thought.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby somitomi » Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:37 am UTC

Hi, adnapemit!
Sabrar wrote:
somitomi wrote:heuristically_alone: because of the case on Sabrar
Are you referring here to LaserGuy's case on heury regarding his case on me or an analysis of your own?

It's similar to laserGuy's case, but what pings me is that Heury's case feels kind of, well, forced for lack of better word. On a second look it feels weak as scum attacking town though.
—◯-◯

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby adnapemit » Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:07 pm UTC

Read list!

bessie-
I disagree with her opinion that Sabrar can't be cult because he wasn't asking questions.
I don't think he would be seen asking questions about cult if he was.
But her opinions are made logically.

bessie wrote:It's an ordered list. Upon reflection, you and BoomFrog moved up. And Gopher of Pern and mpolo might be moving down.

How far? What is the new order?

I feel she is townie scum-hunting.

BoomFrog-
In his first post of the game he requests Storm to claim but then immediately makes another post that requests not to until discussed as if there is a cult this could be a bad idea. He did correct himself but asking for claims so early is always suspicious.
I find his explanation of Laserguy scumminess pings me a bit but since I am also finding Laserguy scummy and I think he is the less likely of the scum.

Gopher of Pern-
One post with pretty good opinions, I don't think there's enough for me to judge properly but from what is there I think probably very very slightly townie side of neutral.

heuristically_alone-
heuristically_alone wrote:Something Sabrar did last game as scum was prepare games to quote in case people called him.mafia for something. So itnis definitely in Sabrar's scum game to show past games to defend himself.

He just does this with any alignment.

Heury is hard to judge, there are lot of attempts at finding scum. Lots of short responses and attempts to highlight scummy things. But whether he is scum hunting or looking for someone to pin scum on I can't tell just yet.

heuristically_alone wrote:As of now I know I do not want to lynch adnapemit, sabrar, laserguy, or myself. I'll have reads on the rest of the players with my vote soon though.

Can you explain a bit more why you don't want to lynch laserguy?(ninja'd alot by Sabrar...I am so slow at posting...)

LaserGuy-
As a response to Storm being a threat comment he suggests we lynch her.
I find this immediate response scummy, yes she is a threat if she is anything but town but we could only lynch her if she used her power(making her scum) or if in the unlikely she claimed(which would most likely make her town or cult). It's very unlikely that she would claim but if it happened we could be purposefully lynching town.

mpolo-
I look forward to mpolo's reread. Most of his content feels a bit shallow. He doesn't really have any opinions on who he thinks is scum with his only scummy opinion being GoP for lack of posts.

Sabrar-
My opinion is that Sabrar's playing is pretty townie.
If Sabrar was cult I don't think he would be asking questions in thread, he would be PMing them. Because of this I think he is either town or cult. From the rest of his posts I think he is town because when questioned, his response was pretty calm.
As for heury's comment about making excuses for losing as mafia. It's not Sabrar's style and it's day 1 it's pretty early and I don't think anyone has resigned themselves to losing just yet.
Sabrar wrote:If I feel that the setup is unbalanced then I'm less concerned about the outcome (see Shakespeare post mortem analysis) because in that case it matters a lot less how well I play.
How do you feel about the possible setups/roles mix. Do you think it's likely that the setup is currently unbalance or do you think we are more likely to end up with a balanced game after all the random assignment?

somitomi-
Very hesitant to write opinions. I'm sitting sort of neutral in my opinion. I can easily see him being part of a scum pair but I can also view his post as a newbie.

-Town-
adnapemit
bessie
Sabrar
Gopher of Pern
somitomi
Heuristically_alone
mpolo
BoomFrog
LaserGuy
-Scum-

Additional: I think if there is a cult then BoomFrog is cult, if it is mafia then Laserguy is mafia. It is also unlikely that they are scum together.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:24 pm UTC

adnapemit wrote:How do you feel about the possible setups/roles mix. Do you think it's likely that the setup is currently unbalance or do you think we are more likely to end up with a balanced game after all the random assignment?

I think the setup is likely to be somewhat unbalanced. 7 town + 2 mafia is the standard for most 9-player games so anything different probably does not favor Town. Here is an extreme scenario that I wrote out for my own amusement at the beginning of the game:
Spoiler:
Suppose Jean Grey and Storm are scum together, Cyclops is Survivor (and reveals this to Jean hoping for an ally). Scum has full info and complete coordination (chat) with survivor. D1 Storm uses Tornado if it looks like one of them is getting lynched. N1 Cyclops and Jean Grey kill 2 townies, Storm uses Charisma. D2 Town cannot force a lynch because they no longer have majority. N2 scum kills another townie, achieves parity with the help of Survivor, guaranteed win.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby somitomi » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:23 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Conclusion: LaserGuy is scum. His partner is probably among GoP, mpolo and Bessie. Considering there is day chat, scum probably talked about who to target, and I doubt Bessie would have agreed to LaserGuy's plan, so probably mpolo or GoP.

I wonder why you ruled out Bessie, is it based on experience from previous games? Otherwise I mostly agree with your points
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