X-Men Mafia: Resolution

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heuristically_alone
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby heuristically_alone » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:34 pm UTC

Just reading some of the role pms over again and thought of something. If Jean Grey is scum, they are likely to use their ability tonight and kill anyone that targets them which would be absolutely disasterous for town. There is a good chance of 2 or 3 kills happening. There are 2 other players who knows who jean grey is so if they have a decent scum read on jean grey naybe they should who it.

On another note, it would be sweet if Jean grey was town and we correctly lynch scum today and during night phase and the other scum gets redirected to target jean grey and dies. One day win!
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby mpolo » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:48 pm UTC

Rereading starting on Day 3, in the hope of finishing today:

Spoiler:
Sabrar: If setup is unbalanced, is unconcerned about outcome. Looking for any win. Don't mind losing to cult. Thinks BoomFrog is town, unsure of bessie. Analyses people who are suspicious of him. And the rest. Points out disadvantages to a survivor claim. Points out frustration at setup in past games. Points out some inconsistency in LaserGuy. Suggestions for D2. Votes LaserGuy (scummiest are myself and LaserGuy). Gives example of possibly unbalanced random scenario.

Peaceful Whale / adnapemit: <skipping PW part because towniness is near guaranteed, salvo a brilliant acting job. Also it saves a lot of note-taking on page three…> Adnapemit confirms Gambit/Town claim. Scummiest players are BoomFrog and LaserGuy, though not likely together. LG is mafia, BF would be cult.

Somitomi: Unvote to prevent premature hammer. Extension gives time to discuss. No strong opinions yet. Sabrar cult thing is fishy. Heury misread the setup. Bessie makes good comments. LaserGuy just asks questions, but seems OK. Bad at expressing ideas. Ordered list: Scum=Sabrar, Gopher, heury. Sees heury's attack on Sabrar as very forced, though possibly weak for a scum on town attack.

Heury: Sabrar making excuses for losing. Cyclops is worse as scum than Storm. Stil doesn't like Sabrar. Somitomi has a waffly "back off from what I said" post. Analysis of past games by Sabrar. Not tunneling because undecided about sabrar. Sabrar likely town. Does not think LaserGuy should be first lynch.

bessie: explains why roleblockers not included in previous analysis. Seems to feel that I should have put Sabrar at L-1 relatively early. On D1, cult and mafia look the same. Reads list (strangely not ordered). Some pings on LaserGuy. Ordered list: scum=somitomi, LaserGuy, heury. Long reaction post. Accuses me of buddying Sabrar.

LaserGuy: Considers differences between how mafia and cult will appear. Fishes for survivor claim. Argument between sabrar/heury seems "personal". Reads list: scummy are Sabrar, Gopher of Pern (lurk), heury (tunneling, not cult). Gives reasons a survivor should claim. Answer to BoomFrog: shows his input on Sabrar and Whale. Huery is to "chummy" with Sabrar (Vote).

BoomFrog: Sabrar seems to have totally ignored cult. Sabrar seems townier now. Questions to individuals. Votes LaserGuy. Clarifies with bessie. Asks why LaserGuy is sure somitomi is newbie town. Still waiting to explain vote. Generally nice case against LaserGuy, though some points are weaker than others.


So, what have I learned:
1. Heuristically_alone - The activity level and willingness to expose himself with arguments has him on the townie side of neutral at present.
2. Gopher of Pern - Not a single post in the part I re-read. Problem for the mod at this point.
3. Sabrar - I still have some reservations, but in general the reactions to the pressure he received early have me thinking he is on the townie end.
4. bessie - If she is scum, she is hiding it quite well... General vibe is very townie.
5. mpolo
6. BoomFrog - I like the effort put in on the LaserGuy case. townie
7. LaserGuy - Feels scummy. His case against heuristically_alone seems manufactured to me. In addition BoomFrog's post and the suspicions of several others. He seems to be looking for low-hanging fruit. scummy
8. somitomi - Restricts to short posts, somewhat "accomodating", trying to fit in with others. somewhat scummy.
9.The Peaceful Whale adnapemit: near certain town. Useful analysis as well.

TOWN
adnapemit
bessie
BoomFrog
Sabrar
Heuristically_alone
NEUTRAL
somitomi
LaserGuy
SCUM

REPLACE/MOD-KILL/REACTIVATE
Gopher of Pern

I would like to hear from heuristically_alone the reasons for thinking LaserGuy should not be the first lynch (which seemed a little strangely worded)

I believe that LaserGuy has two votes, and that day ends sometime tomorrow.

Vote: LaserGuy
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:49 pm UTC

PGO is super dangerous for town. Town Jean should not use her power unless she is in end game and thinks she has a very good idea of what will happen or she is desperate.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:51 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Conclusion: LaserGuy is scum. His partner is probably among GoP, mpolo and Bessie. Considering there is day chat, scum probably talked about who to target, and I doubt Bessie would have agreed to LaserGuy's plan, so probably mpolo or GoP.

I wonder why you ruled out Bessie, is it based on experience from previous games? Otherwise I mostly agree with your points
The last bit it's based on my read of Bessie's personality, not experience with her scum play style. Bessie has never played scum in living memory.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:54 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Bessie has never played scum in living memory.
You can have a look at Wheel of Time 1 from last year.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby mpolo » Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:49 pm UTC

I was worried about my townie read on bessie for the same reason -- sooner or later she's going to randomly get a scum role… But the whole vibe is townie this time and I can't really do anything but read it as town.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:38 pm UTC

Well that was way too easy. Feels like scum are on the wagon. Good to know that LaserGuy and mpolo are not scum buddies though. That coupled with mpolo's non-committalness and active lurking leads me to feel he is more scummy the LaserGuy. At least LaserGuy tried a little to do independent scum hunting.

If mpolo is scum look at Sabrar as his scum buddy. (Slow to comment on Sabrar's initial issue but fast to commit on LaserGuy.)

Vote mpolo
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby bessie » Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:42 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Hi adnapemit! Are you Jester? :lol:
Is this a joke reference to a game I didn’t play or do you think adnapemit is a jester?

Re: BoomFrog’s case on LaserGuy. Clue #1, LaserGuy’s not the only one not to take a stand on Sabrar or Peaceful Whale early in the game, so it’s not in itself a reliable indicator of scumminess. Clue #2, well, I have a weird opinion of Heury too and I’m still trying to figure him out. Clue #3 I am in agreement with.

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: thank you for explaining, for me that would mean that you had very few scum-reads when you made the ordered list.
Another question: with you thinking LaserGuy to be mafia, does that change your read on heury?
I’m still reading heuristically_alone as scummy, but I don’t see any scum partners to which I can connect him. His playstyle is confusing me and making it difficult to get a read. I just checked and I don’t think we have ever actually played a game together. I will reread him today.

mpolo wrote:bessie: explains why roleblockers not included in previous analysis. Seems to feel that I should have put Sabrar at L-1 relatively early. On D1, cult and mafia look the same. Reads list (strangely not ordered). Some pings on LaserGuy. Ordered list: scum=somitomi, LaserGuy, heury. Long reaction post. Accuses me of buddying Sabrar.
I think you’re misinterpreting me here, perhaps deliberately. Where did I say that you should have voted for Sabrar? I was pointing out what I believe was an artificial concern for Sabrar being at L-2, when we were two days from deadline. The two newbies were already voting for Sabrar; did you really believe any veteran players were (1) going to hammer (2) on D1 (3) with two days remaining?

And why does everyone want to force read my list as a scum read on somitomi? There is a 50% chance that there are exactly two scum currently in this game, 80% chance if you interpret the survivor role as not anti-town.

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Bessie has never played scum in living memory.
You can have a look at Wheel of Time 1 from last year.
Hmm, I was thinking about that game a few days ago when we were discussing this.

mpolo wrote:I was worried about my townie read on bessie for the same reason -- sooner or later she's going to randomly get a scum role… But the whole vibe is townie this time and I can't really do anything but read it as town.
And with this remark, mpolo moves up to my top pick for cult.

adnapemit wrote:
bessie wrote:It's an ordered list. Upon reflection, you and BoomFrog moved up. And Gopher of Pern and mpolo might be moving down.

How far? What is the new order?
Thank you adnapemit for replacing and for taking time to catch up and make a reads list.

town
bessie
adnapemit
BoomFrog
Sabrar
somitomi
heuristically_alone
LaserGuy
mpolo
scum

TBD: Gopher of Pern

Ninja'd by BoomFrog

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:33 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Well that was way too easy. Feels like scum are on the wagon.
Does this comment mean that your case on LaserGuy was just you testing the waters to see who would follow or did you have a true change of heart and no longer think him scummy?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:37 am UTC

I sincerely thought he was the most likely scum, but the extra evidence brought by the eagerness of the lynch on him has dissuaded me.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:08 am UTC

A note on strategy for selecting night actions.

1) If we lynch scum today we will have a very good chance of winning the game even without the help of night powers. So to hedge our bets it's best to assume the lynch was a failure and we lynched town and plan accordingly. This will help us recover from the mislynch through good use of powers.

2) Consider the downside of hitting town vs the upside of hitting scum. I don't think anyone has more then a 50% chance of hitting scum N1, and most of us will have worse odds then that. Consider the confusion or damage of hitting town. Professor-X should especially consider withholding their action, as it's very unlikely to damage scum and very likely to confuse town. Jubilee should decide based on her reads, as she could cause scum to self-kill which is a high upside but there is a strong, but less likely downside of having a cop get a false-town result (less likely because it would only be a false result if the cop targeted scum and was hit by jubilee). Jubilee hitting beast would presumably prevent him from giving out his invention which could delay a cop result from N2 to N3 which would make it likely too late to be useful. So there are 4 roles (magneto, night-crawler, beast, wolverine) that it would be fairly bad to hit. Let's say 50% to hit town, 4/12 chance that the townie you hit has a badly hurt role, let's say a 50% chance that targeting them causes actual misinformation. So 1/12 chance Jubilee messes up an information roles results. Okay, yeah Jubilee should go for it if she thinks she has a decent read on someone.

Obviously, Beast should be building a cop device and magneto should be using his cop power tonight. Cyclops should withhold his blast unless he suspects that Jean is cult, then he should blast her (if cyclops gets culted we are in big trouble). However, that's a pretty unlikely scenario so probably withhold. Storm should obviously withhold. Jean should obviously withhold.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby bessie » Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:38 am UTC

heuristically_alone, are you going to answer these questions?
Sabrar wrote:@heuristically_alone: why are you against a LaserGuy lynch?

adnapemit wrote:Can you explain a bit more why you don't want to lynch laserguy?

mpolo wrote:I would like to hear from heuristically_alone the reasons for thinking LaserGuy should not be the first lynch (which seemed a little strangely worded)


I'll be at work at deadline, so my last opportunity to post will be approximately 8 hours from now.

Vote: mpolo

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:45 am UTC

bessie wrote:Is this a joke reference to a game I didn’t play or do you think adnapemit is a jester?
As discussed with heury and picked up by BoomFrog I have a strong suspicion on Peaceful Whale being Jester as that is the simplest explanation for a lot of his content. Though I have been wrong about similar assumptions multiple times in the past.

BoomFrog wrote:I sincerely thought he was the most likely scum, but the extra evidence brought by the eagerness of the lynch on him has dissuaded me.
Could you give me an estimate in % how sure you were about LaserGuy when you made your case and how sure you are about mpolo right now?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby dimochka » Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:00 am UTC

Current Votals:
Laserguy - 2 (Sabrar,mpolo)
Heuristically_alone - 1 (LaserGuy)
mpolo - 2 (BoomFrog,bessie)

Deadline in 11 hours, and reminder that ties result in no lynch.

Also - I will accept night actions up to 15 min after normal hammer would happen; any later than that and you forfeit your action for the night. You are welcome to pre-send actions and make them conditional / have backup actions.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:11 am UTC

I am 99% sure that heury is Town.
I am 95% sure that there is at least 1 scum in {BoomFrog, LaserGuy, mpolo}.
I am 90% sure that adnapemit is not scum.

BoomFrog jumping from vote to vote seriously pinged me but I just reread Shakespeare D1 and it looks likes that it's within his playstyle to do so. I think he's Town though I don't like how he abandons previous thoughts when a new idea occurs to him.

@somitomi: you had LaserGuy as one of your top townie reads. Then suddenly you agreed with BoomFrog's case on LaserGuy. Why? Does that change your read on heury?

@bessie: regarding the question I answered in my previous post, did you really miss my read-list?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby mpolo » Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:30 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Well that was way too easy. Feels like scum are on the wagon. Good to know that LaserGuy and mpolo are not scum buddies though. That coupled with mpolo's non-committalness and active lurking leads me to feel he is more scummy the LaserGuy. At least LaserGuy tried a little to do independent scum hunting.


It is, of course, pretty much my meta, especially on Day 1, not to vote before I am sure of myself.

Everybody has a useful power, but mine is probably on the weak side, so if you have to mislynch, better me than someone else.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby adnapemit » Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:37 am UTC

adnapemit wrote:Additional: I think if there is a cult then BoomFrog is cult, if it is mafia then Laserguy is mafia. It is also unlikely that they are scum together.

Nevermind the last part, likelyhood has increased.


I'm still not sure about mpolo. He is appearing better than yesterday but not enough for my list to change.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby bessie » Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:50 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: regarding the question I answered in my previous post, did you really miss my read-list?

No, I saw it. I thought it might be part of the joke, and I didn’t see the need to quote both.

(And I was quite delighted by the thought that someone would be terrified of me me me if I was scum. :D)

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby somitomi » Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:37 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@somitomi: you had LaserGuy as one of your top townie reads. Then suddenly you agreed with BoomFrog's case on LaserGuy. Why? Does that change your read on heury?

I thought BoomFrog raised some good points about LaserGuy, moving him down on my list. That means Heury moves up a little, although I still think of him as suspicious. I'm somewhat lost now with BoomFrog's switch to mpolo, but the deadline is looming close, so I'm going to re-read the last couple pages and vote soon.
—◯-◯

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:21 am UTC

I will switch to mpolo if it's necessary to break the tie though I would really love to hear from LaserGuy first.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby somitomi » Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:02 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:If mpolo is scum look at Sabrar as his scum buddy. (Slow to comment on Sabrar's initial issue but fast to commit on LaserGuy.)

It occured to me, that mpolo was worried about the Sabrar wagon with about two days until the (original) deadline, but then he agreed with Sabrar being suspicious. It could be a front though, but this makes the Sabrar&mpolo scum team seem less likely, I'd expect scum buddies to protect one another at this early stage of the game.
Oh, and he agreed that the IIWX strategy is more useful to scum than town (which was pointed out by Sabrar first IIRC).

Any information on Gopher of Pern? Did they read the mod-prod?
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby somitomi » Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:13 am UTC

somitomi wrote:Oh, and he agreed that the IIWX strategy is more useful to scum than town (which was pointed out by Sabrar first IIRC).

Actually I'm unsure how to read this. The naive read is town genuinely not wanting to help scum, but it could be scum trying to make BoomFrog look suspicious. Hopefully I'll be able to stick around for the rest of D1, but mpolo seems most suspicious for the time being.

Vote: mpolo
—◯-◯

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby mpolo » Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:22 am UTC

So that town has something to work with (though with the nightless setup, I'm not saving you a lot of suspense): I am Beast and town.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby dimochka » Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:08 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:Any information on Gopher of Pern? Did they read the mod-prod?

They did not. I'm reaching out to one of our replacements now to see if they would take over, but at this point it would likely be on D2.
Gopher of Pern wrote:...

Doubt this will do anything, but worth a try.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:25 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote: mpolo


I'm a sucker for appeal to emotion and think he's likely town but I also want to avoid the possibility of a tie happening.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:26 pm UTC

EBWOP:
@heury: I see you're online, please answer the questions raised to you before day end.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:05 pm UTC

Skimmed the thread, dont reallt have time to comment. Mpolo lynch looks okay... not my strongest scum read, but I agree with BoomFrog that has scum read of me looks pretty opportunistic. I'd still prefer heury given the choice. Won't change my vote as it looks like that would be hammer.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:13 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I sincerely thought he was the most likely scum, but the extra evidence brought by the eagerness of the lynch on him has dissuaded me.
Could you give me an estimate in % how sure you were about LaserGuy when you made your case and how sure you are about mpolo right now?

D1 I'm not confident of anything. Base chance of scum is 2/9 so about 22%. I'd say I was 40% sure LaserGuy was scum and I'm only 50% sure mpolo is scum. Even now I'm considering if I should ask you to switch last minute with me back to LaserGuy.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:15 pm UTC

You may, I prefer LaserGuy over mpolo.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:17 pm UTC

That is to say I was about 50% sure LaserGuy is scum and I'm now still about 40% sure.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:18 pm UTC

Can you see any potential buddy to either of them?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:19 pm UTC

How can you be 95% confident that LaserGuy, mpolo and I contain one scum?
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:22 pm UTC

GoP is the obvious lazy answer but unlikely. Sotomi (misspelled because I'm hurried sorry) could be partners with LaserGuy. Bessie could be partners with LaserGuy. The only partner I see for mpolo is you...
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:25 pm UTC

Alright, in light of my positive read on you I'll switch. May the odds be in our favor.

Vote LaserGuy
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:27 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:How can you be 95% confident that LaserGuy, mpolo and I contain one scum?
Because (and I very rarely say this) it doesn't look like T vs T vs T at all.

BoomFrog wrote:The only partner I see for mpolo is you...
Do you really think that with 2 possible townie-wagons happening we would jump on the same in a hurry and not let town hang himself?

Unvote
Vote: LaserGuy

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:34 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:The only partner I see for mpolo is you...
Do you really think that with 2 possible townie-wagons happening we would jump on the same in a hurry and not let town hang himself?

What two Wagon's are you referring to? Peaceful whale and heuristicly alone I guess. Peaceful whale I agree with which is why you have townie cred but heuy wasn't going to get lynched by LaserGuy's awful arguments.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:36 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:So that town has something to work with (though with the nightless setup, I'm not saving you a lot of suspense): I am Beast and town.

You didn't get lynched. Send in your night action.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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Sabrar
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:38 pm UTC

Nope, LaserGuy and heury (the two players with a vote on them). bessie and somitomi also have heury on their scummy side so it was a possibility.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:43 pm UTC

When did you defend LaserGuy?
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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BoomFrog
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:44 pm UTC

Also, looking at somitomi's and Bessie's wishy washy-ness about LaserGuy I'm feeling better about this decision
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos


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