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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:56 am UTC

Yet his read on Boom was changing. The best time to kill him from Scum!Boom pov would be then. Maven also scumread Boom. So did Peaceful Whale. If you believe scum did not kill him for his claim, what do you propose was their reason, that pushed Zen ahead of Bessie, who was highly suggested as a result for Peaceful Whale's cop result? Why do you think Boom is playing the way he is today? You state that you do think that if the scum know the setup, then it is likely Boom faked his claim. Expand on that thought process and how it affects your read on Boom.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:59 am UTC

I have work in the morning. I'll be back later.

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plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:59 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:Either BoomFrog was actually blocked by Yolinda or scum decided it was fine to fake it. Makes BoomFrog look worse.


How do you figure? If BoomFrog was blocked by Yolinda, he's likely town.

It didn't make sense for scum!BoomFrog to imply being roleblocked when scum already roleblocked Sabrar. If there's only one possible roleblock that's no longer an issue. BoomFrog can plausibly claim being roleblocked because he knows Yolinda didn't use his power.
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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:47 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Yet his read on Boom was changing. The best time to kill him from Scum!Boom pov would be then. Maven also scumread Boom. So did Peaceful Whale. If you believe scum did not kill him for his claim, what do you propose was their reason, that pushed Zen ahead of Bessie, who was highly suggested as a result for Peaceful Whale's cop result? Why do you think Boom is playing the way he is today? You state that you do think that if the scum know the setup, then it is likely Boom faked his claim. Expand on that thought process and how it affects your read on Boom.


Maven's read on Boom was null. I would be.... surprised.... if PW was killed for his reads. This line of reasoning is strange anyway, since it implies that scum's main focus in their kill selection was protecting BoomFrog, and I don't understand why you feel that would be the case. I'm not sure why Maven and PW were chosen. There's lots of different reasons that scum use to choose their kills, and which ones are most important depend on the specific players on the team.

I didn't say that if scum knows the setup, then it is likely Boom faked his claim; I said that if scum knows the setup, they would have enough information to fake those specific results. Normally, I'd consider a watcher, especially one early in the claim order, to be a fairly safe claim to mark as townie, but in this instance, I can't give BoomFrog the benefit of a strong townie claim in my read.

Specifics on how this works:
Spoiler:
N1:
Living players that can target are EGW, mpolo, plytho, RR.
EGW claimed to use barrier. mpolo targets are known, plytho didn't target. RR unknown.

N2:
Living players that can target are Sabrar, EGW, mpolo, plytho, RR. EGW is being watched, mpolo and plytho targets are accounted for. In my original analysis, Yolinda was roleblocking Sabrar, though,scum did have to guess that Sabrar wasn't jailing you.

Boom's play doesn't look great today. I understand why people are reading him scummy.

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mpolo
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby mpolo » Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:36 pm UTC

O.K. Some thoughts after ploughing through 5 pages.

EGW has gotten some pressure recently, and, while there is not a complete breakdown that looks obviously scummy, he does look scummier after those interactions, just on general feeling. But I have been reading him as townie for so long that I have a lot of momentum for keeping a town read.

If Ryu's notes come as direct mod notes and not some kind of "quoted" mechanism, I would find them fairly bastard. Of course our game designer doesn't come from this forum, so may have other opinions about bastardy. Still moving him to neutral territory.

The conflict with BoomFrog's results is either really good or really bad for BoomFrog. Either he was RB-ed by scum, or he is lying scum himself.

And I am feeling really really unsure of my reads at this point. FrozenFlame could be either, but I have him leaning scum because of activity. On the other hand, his reaction to losing a post sounds more like town desperately trying to keep up.

plytho has stabilized, and I am reading him fairly townie.

I haven't really changed on Madge. I think she is town or harmless-indie. Would like to know about the power, though three times to activate three powers somehow seems more likely to me.

Sabrar has not given me anything to change my read on him.

bessie is near-confirmed town.

I guess I have BoomFrog > Red Ryu > EGW, but I am incredibly unsure of these.

@BoomFrog: I didn't see a very useful way to use my power last night (and I really hate dealing with bus-driver roles as town, after having a game where there were several redirection powers), and so followed the advice of town!EGW not to use it. As the night went on, it occured to me that I could have tried to save Bessie, but as this was directly suggested in thread, there was a good chance of scum wanting to avoid bessie anyway. So I decided to keep things less confusing.
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BoomFrog
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:57 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:I'm asking for your individual reads on their actions, not interactions with me. Their whole play, what is your reads on them?

mpolo has been very inline with my expectations for overwhelmed but trying to keep up townie!mpolo up until the end of D3. Unfortunately, that is pretty similar to how he would act as scum, he's pretty passive either way. The only thing to really judge him by is his power use and his choice N3 is not what I expected town!mpolo to do. His latest post does make some sense and puts him back to a townie lean.

Sabrar has been very active all game, but that's not actually a town tell from him, it's just how Sabrar is. Again, he's a judge by his actions kind of case. I recall him being very strong on moody early, but I should go back and look at which way he pushed and how easily he accepted the spak/gamma and JimBob lynches. My suspicion of him is mostly from PoE because FF, RR, LG and of course Madge all seem pretty townie to me. Sabrar is good enough that he could be scum still.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:03 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@jimbob I forgot to say last post: I agree, reading you and Moody as buddies was lazy. You were both scummy but there's no way we ended up with two scum buddies as the lunch candidates D1 in a 20 man game. I was just looking at you two individually, be not actually considering the ramifications of you both being scum.


@BoomFrog - Please explain this comment now, given your current stance on me.


BoomFrog, I'd like to hear your response to jimbob's post here, particularly the comment above.

Fair. This is going back to the passive players vs active scum players distinction. If the scumteam is mostly passive players then JimBob and moody both ending up on the chopping block together makes sense. From a D1 perspective it was unlikely that they were buddies because odds are their team contains some active players. But that's not a strong enough reason to prove JimBob isn't scum either. If the team is fairly passive they could be both buddies. My team theory D3 was moody, JimBob, Red, plytho or Laser but not both, and no idea. If no idea was FF, mpolo or yolinda then passive team makes sense, if no idea was Sabrar or EGW or Zen then it doesn't make sense.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:06 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Sabrar because your fight D3 was so fake and flimsy. It was over after like an hour.
Except you're forgetting that Zen had to step in and make the exact same points I made in order to EGW to drop it.

Exactly. I've never seen you make your points so obtusely. You were like, "Date and time!" as if you just assume everyone is always checking timestamps of posts and it was ridiculous that EGW hadn't noticed the identical timestamp thing. You're better then that.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:18 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Possibly due to his claim and his response to Boom being late for deadline. So it keeps us in the dark about the results he could get considering that he wanted Ryu to send Boom and himself. Quotes in next post.

I think I've demonstrated that I'm fairly adapt at reading Zen's mind. She basically just me with a better avatar and more free time. I was pretty sure Zen had forgiven me by the end of the day, and she was certainly still my strongest ally. It was in fact, the worst possible time for scum!me to kill her because her parting words were so critical of me, but you can see in her journal that she still had me as town. Also I knew she was trying to draw the nightkill for some reason. I thought she knew she would be protected for some reason without the doctor. Turned out that she was faking the cop claim which I admittedly didn't realize. Killing her to suppress the result on me doesn't make sense, she said her result would be recorded in her journal.
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:31 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Sabrar has been very active all game, but that's not actually a town tell from him, it's just how Sabrar is. Again, he's a judge by his actions kind of case. I recall him being very strong on moody early, but I should go back and look at which way he pushed and how easily he accepted the spak/gamma and JimBob lynches. My suspicion of him is mostly from PoE because FF, RR, LG and of course Madge all seem pretty townie to me. Sabrar is good enough that he could be scum still.
How can you call this a read? This is just hedging, saying that you have no idea and don't want to commit to anything.

BoomFrog wrote:Exactly. I've never seen you make your points so obtusely. You were like, "Date and time!" as if you just assume everyone is always checking timestamps of posts and it was ridiculous that EGW hadn't noticed the identical timestamp thing. You're better then that.
I will point you to this post. I'm using more forceful language with DGamers because that's how they play and what they understand. Also you should very well be aware that I'm obtuse when people don't get my point, like EGW did here.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Sabrar has been very active all game, but that's not actually a town tell from him, it's just how Sabrar is. Again, he's a judge by his actions kind of case. I recall him being very strong on moody early, but I should go back and look at which way he pushed and how easily he accepted the spak/gamma and JimBob lynches. My suspicion of him is mostly from PoE because FF, RR, LG and of course Madge all seem pretty townie to me. Sabrar is good enough that he could be scum still.
How can you call this a read? This is just hedging, saying that you have no idea and don't want to commit to anything.
How is this hedging? I'm committing to a lot of things. Like my town read of Red and FF. If I was scum I could have easily made a less controversial claim, and gotten FF lynched today. EGW was for it, you, LaserGuy and plytho would all have been for it. Only Red was against it. I'm saying there are ten players and I find six of them townie, which means 3 out of 4 of the most likely* scenarios, you're scum. If you try to look at it objectively is that not a valid line of reasoning?

*Actually this has made me consider another scenario which is EGW+Sabrar+Madge, but that seems less likely then the others still.

BoomFrog wrote:Exactly. I've never seen you make your points so obtusely. You were like, "Date and time!" as if you just assume everyone is always checking timestamps of posts and it was ridiculous that EGW hadn't noticed the identical timestamp thing. You're better then that.
I will point you to this post. I'm using more forceful language with DGamers because that's how they play and what they understand. Also you should very well be aware that I'm obtuse when people don't get my point, like EGW did here.
This is true, but you are also self aware of that fact. The fight felt staged. I didn't have a big issue with it until EGW tried to claim that as a legitimate push to lynch you. My previous theory was that town!EGW was just trying to "rattle some cages" as I said before. As in, attack cagey players to see if he could get a good reaction from him. I thought that's what he was doing with Zen, me and you, but now he is claiming that those were serious attempts to get those players lynched and that just doesn't make sense. I can totally imagine scum!sabrar rereading the N1 lynch during N2, finding those two posts and asking EGW to attack you for it.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/10

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:59 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:D1: Boom, Dark Horse, Moody
D2: Boom, Gamma, Spak
D3: Sabrar, FrozenFlame

This list is terrible. You left off Zen D2 but include Sabrar D3? Your attack on Zen was stronger then your attack on Sabrar. And why leave off Madge? You still didn't answer that.
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:04 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:If you try to look at it objectively is that not a valid line of reasoning?
It would be if EGW hadn't ask you to provide a read based on my actions specifically. You're dodging the question completely and use PoE instead where you first find 6 others to call townie so you don't have to analyze me.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:21 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@LaserGuy: My lynch is looking likely, anything important to say


Um...? If you're hoping that I have something in my back pocket to confirm you as town, I'm afraid I don't have much help to offer in that respect. For some time I had been reading your buddy-buddy interactions with Zen as you guys softclaiming masons. I'm still trying to sort out my read of you without that.

I forgot you were in mason chat, it seems you and EGW have already discussed this maybe. There is no way that you guessed this out of the blue:
BoomFrog wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I'm PMing yolo to see if I would get a different result between no visitors and roleblocked.


If you were roleblocked, would you still have another shot of your watcher power?

No, my kill is refunded if blocked in any way shape or form but not my watcher power.

Judgment works the same way right? If you get roleblocked you get to use it again? You know my claim is true.

But now I see the going theory is that as a know-it-all moody fed the entire scum team the entire setup info? Do you understand how unbalanced that is? If I had every players full role PMs do you really think I'd have "messed up" my claim as I had? I'd have known there were no real cops, I'd have breadcrumbed that I knew Zen wasn't a cop, I'd have faked being a cop, kept Zen alive and pretended to breadcrumb results to her. Town would have been owned, if I was scum and had 100% setup information, and I would never have bussed moody and let it be known that scum had that info. Alright, that plan has some flaws, but I'd have figured something better out, and I 100% would not have killed Zen. She was about to give a fake cop confirmation that I and Red were unaligned. Red would have been lynched, then she would have confessed to making up her power and it would have been a amazing for scum!me. She would have been lynched, then flipped town and I'd be much better off then I am now. I'm getting excited just imagining how awesome that would have been if I was scum and knew Zen was lying about her role.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:32 pm UTC

BTW now that we've claimed I can finally comment on moody not having been bussed early. Full immunity to all night-actions (while being able to perform the NK) is simply so powerful that it makes no sense for scum to bus him D1 when 2 other wagons were also available. Therefore I consider EGW to be almost certain Town. It's also a fairly big townie-point for plytho though not conclusively so.

Notes about setup-mechanics that I don't quite get:
- why have a Miller when we only have a 1-shot Cop?
- If BoomFrog is scum and Ryu is Town then we have no investigative roles that could detect Ryu's notes.
- Maven was Vig, both Madge and BoomFrog claim 1-shot Vig abilities with Madge also claiming 'Guilt' mechanic that Maven also had.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:06 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:If you try to look at it objectively is that not a valid line of reasoning?
It would be if EGW hadn't ask you to provide a read based on my actions specifically. You're dodging the question completely and use PoE instead where you first find 6 others to call townie so you don't have to analyze me.

Fine, I've got some time.

Totally fine with Spak or GE lynch here. Confirms scum-spak read here. Town lean on Jim hear here. D2 readlist, gamma is 2nd scummiest, spak is fifth, jimbob is 4th towniest. Weakly resists moving to spak, not trying to find other candidates besides unlynchable Zen, here. Zen backs off of Spak and Sabrar doesn't like it here. Says it doesn't make sense for scum!Zen to bus scum!spak so early, indicating they can't be buddies here, but then in the next post says he is switching to spak. How did you reconcile Zen is scum, but spak is also scum at this time Sabrar?

Switches vote to Spak and says he wants to read gamma as town for the outburst, here. It's about 5 or 6 hours before deadline, so this is pretty null. The lynch is set already for one of these non-mafia. Overall, scummy, too passive, following Zen even though she is a scum read. If you thought Spak was town because Zen is scum, and you belived gamma's "townie outburst" why not search for a third viable lynch candidate?

D3: Finds FF scummy here. I agree with the reasoning. I'd expect Sabrar to find FF's style scummy, so this is null. Finally gets around to analyzing Jim after there are already four votes on him [url]here.[/url] Actually the delay is fair, I asked people to wait and let Red and FF weigh in first. Finds Jim totally scummy. What specifically changed your mind on Jim between D2 and D3?

Also, side note, plytho was 3rd scummiest on your list D2? How do you feel about him toDay and why?

Going back to read the full D1 lynch, instead of just ISOing Sabrar.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:20 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:- why have a Miller when we only have a 1-shot Cop?
- If BoomFrog is scum and Ryu is Town then we have no investigative roles that could detect Ryu's notes.
- Maven was Vig, both Madge and BoomFrog claim 1-shot Vig abilities with Madge also claiming 'Guilt' mechanic that Maven also had.

1) I wouldn't be surprised to see a miller in a game with zero cops. It's something I'd do as a mod.
2) That's a good point. :D Although, it seems weird that I would get notes on the player I watch? I'm guessing that scum have an investigative role that can also see notes, like a rolecop who also can read Zen's journal, and find Red's notes. (although if they had a rolecop Zen would probably be alive still, so that doesn't work...)
3) I assume Maven's guiltyness was that if he killed a townie he either suicided or lost his power. I'm guessing that's why he withheld N1. Two awkward 1-shot vigs which can't be activated N1 and the third vig is on average one or two shot. I'd bet he just lost his power if he killed town, suicide or stumping is really swingy, you lose two townies for missing. That actually seems very balanced, and the fact that all three have failed is a bad sign for town. We've basically lost a lynch or two, which makes me worried there are 4 scum left and we are at MYLO. But actually we basically got a free lynch from the bomb, so we're probably net ahead. 3 scum seems most likely still. I swear I've seen guilty as a modifier for vig before but I can't find it on mafia-scum wiki. If Maven stumped or died on killing a townie then I could see only 2 scum left maybe.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:35 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:How did you reconcile Zen is scum, but spak is also scum at this time Sabrar?
Already answered here. If you'd really ISO-d me you'd have noticed.

BoomFrog wrote:If you thought Spak was town because Zen is scum, and you belived gamma's "townie outburst" why not search for a third viable lynch candidate?
Where do you get that I believed Spak was Town at that point (in direct contradiction with your previous question)? I found Zen moving away from him scummy and thought this indicated a failed bus-attempt (referenced in the above post). I'm not going to start looking for a 3rd candidate out of the blue in a 46 page long game at midnight when I have to work the next day.

BoomFrog wrote:What specifically changed your mind on Jim between D2 and D3?
Why not read my post about it here? D3 happened.

BoomFrog wrote:Also, side note, plytho was 3rd scummiest on your list D2? How do you feel about him toDay and why?
I got a strong feeling of Fridge!plytho earlier. That has since abated and as noted before I think he's likely Town.

Honestly this looks like you just went ahead and searched for content you could attack me on, without bothering to look further. I wonder who did the exact same thing earlier? Oh, it was FrozenFlame. What a surprise...

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:56 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:How did you reconcile Zen is scum, but spak is also scum at this time Sabrar?
Already answered here. If you'd really ISO-d me you'd have noticed.
I didn't read all of your content, that would have taken even longer. I just searched for Spak, gamma, Jim, FF and Frozen to see your comments about them.

BoomFrog wrote:If you thought Spak was town because Zen is scum, and you belived gamma's "townie outburst" why not search for a third viable lynch candidate?
Where do you get that I believed Spak was Town at that point (in direct contradiction with your previous question)? I found Zen moving away from him scummy and thought this indicated a failed bus-attempt (referenced in the above post). I'm not going to start looking for a 3rd candidate out of the blue in a 46 page long game at midnight when I have to work the next day.
Fair enough on the time crunch. Those two questions are not contradictions though. I'm saying town!Sabrar would find Spak likelier to be town because you suspect Zen. But again, cleared by the timing so that's fair.

BoomFrog wrote:What specifically changed your mind on Jim between D2 and D3?
Why not read my post about it here? D3 happened.
I had that link in my previous post but apparently forgot to past it in. It's the broken url tag. Still, your logic is sound but the results of your actions were very convenient for you if you are scum.

BoomFrog wrote:Also, side note, plytho was 3rd scummiest on your list D2? How do you feel about him toDay and why?
I got a strong feeling of Fridge!plytho earlier. That has since abated and as noted before I think he's likely Town.

Honestly this looks like you just went ahead and searched for content you could attack me on, without bothering to look further. I wonder who did the exact same thing earlier? Oh, it was FrozenFlame. What a surprise...
[/quote] Yes, that is literally what I did. I've given you a free pass because of being early on the moody lynch, so I went back to see what scummy behavior I could find. Your implication that FF and I are buddies desperately attacking the towniest players is pretty weak. I think we'd go after easier targets like Red, plytho or Laser. This is the same thing I was having with Bessie (who I'd find totally scummy right now if she wasn't confirmed town). Your logic is sound, but your actions have been very good for scum!you.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:19 pm UTC

D1 lynch, EGW first votes here. Reasonable and this is where he gets all his town credit. I challenge him here, he expresses willingness to move to red here. Moody posts his reads list and votes Red here. EGW pushes PW to vote with him here. EGW pushes Sabrar to vote and Sabrar simultaneously votes here. EGW hops off the moody wagon which was not really moving and pushes Sabrar to join him voting Dark Horse here. Sabrar sticks to moody and argues for moody lynch here. Plytho talks about moody being scummy but doesn't move his vote off Red here. mpolo votes for gamma here. I vote moody here. (while under zero pressure to do so I might add, the gamma lynch looked quite promising at this point). Plytho immediately responds by voting gamma here. I push Zen to vote for moody with my "70% confidence read" here. EGW gets back onto moody wagon here. with only the little bit of pressure from me, this actually looks pretty good. EGW pushed PW to vote moody here. JimBob votes moody. Zen verbally supports moody over gamma while voting JimBob here. JimBob and then Zen are the tipping point where moody is very likely to be lynched. I miss-remembered this being earlier.

EGW verbally proposes swinging to Red or Spak. This is the most suspect post by EGW

EGW switches to JimBob "for now" indicating he'll be back to moody if Jim doesn't get support. This seems like weird smashboard behavior, I don't know what to make of it.

Sabrar switches to JimBob (putting Jim at 6 votes and this bring moody down to 2) Not good. But then Sabrar is the first to propose going back to moody here. EGW swings things back to moody here. I'd forgotten this part happened completely, that was really townie. Sabrar follows next post. Plytho is fourth here.

here is the moody has given up post where he doesn't even pay attention that JimBob was a viable counter wagon. Red votes Jim here. Way too late to swing the wagon. This shows Red isn't paying much attention regardless of alignment. Scummy. several other townies vote moody, then finally FF votes here. :roll:

I trusted plytho's wagon analysis D2 because I assumed it be so easy to get caught in a bad analysis that he wouldn't even try. But his position of me makes no sense. I got on unprovoked, and stayed on when everyone left. I can see giving sabrar and EGW extra credit for swinging back onto moody when they could have stayed off, but no way Jim and Znirk were more townie then me. I'm trying to be objective here, plytho put me way too low on his list.

Spoiler:
plytho wrote:Likelihood of being buddies with moody:
Very unlikely:
Sabrar
Evil George Washington
Jimbobmacdoodle
Znirk
BoomFrog
unlikely


I started this post with the intention of proving EGW was forced back onto the moody wagon, but he barely was. Sabrar did pressure him, but not that much. Sabrar and EGW do loook really good here. Plytho only moves after it's obvious that moody is going down.

Sidenote: my last post D1 was at 6:07 six hours before deadline D1.

Unvote

Vote plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:34 pm UTC

Will respond more in depth as I get home, but two questions:

Boom, what happened to your Plytho tell you stated in D2? How does this affect your read now? What do you think of his overall play? Who are his buddies?

Laser, what prompted you to ask about the night kill if you don't like to think about night kills? What do you think of Boom's latest vote? (I will respond to you later tonight as well)

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby bessie » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:38 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote: There's no clear pattern but it does confirm that FF and Red are way too attacked to be scum.
I don’t understand this comment, do you mean tunneled on by a few players too much to be scum, or attacked by too many different people to be scum?

BoomFrog wrote: @Bessie: I'm not saying it's an amazing use of the power, but as someone who surly feels that he is likely to die at any night I do not think town!EGW would have withheld for two nights. He's really planning on being alive until N6? I don't think so. There's no reason for him to save telepathy. At bare minimum, he could have sent you a PM to prove his power before the mass claim. Would you not have found some use for it by now?
So you are scumreading EGW because he didn’t use his power the way that you would have used that power?

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:TBH, I’m not sure what Sabrar’s and BoomFrog’s magic meta read was in your initial post, but I don’t do that type of meta read.
bessie commented on both of my meta-posts regarding Madge (main one concerning initial post is here), so I don't understand this comment.
The rest is absolutely fine, her points regarding Madge's content (or rather lack of thereof) are valid.
I really hoped your unarguable unwavering town read on Madge is based on more than “Madge always claims in her first post when she’s town” which yes you present many examples but in my opinion is not strong enough evidence to completely disregard all other content posted in the game. I’m suspicious that you (and BoomFrog) have been unwilling to consider any of her content other than this meta read in her initial post in declaring Madge town, and you won’t reevaluate your read.

LaserGuy wrote:I would be.... surprised.... if PW was killed for his reads.
I agree with this (looking at his late D2 posts, he didn’t like Red Ryu, BoomFrog, EGW, Amrock, Gamma, Spak, Zyth) . It makes more sense that Peaceful Whale was killed because scum thought he may have been a conventional cop.

mpolo wrote: I haven't really changed on Madge. I think she is town or harmless-indie. Would like to know about the power, though three times to activate three powers somehow seems more likely to me.
Really? What do you think of my reasons for doubting the mechanics of Madge’s claim in this post?

BoomFrog wrote: I think I've demonstrated that I'm fairly adapt at reading Zen's mind. She basically just me with a better avatar and more free time. I was pretty sure Zen had forgiven me by the end of the day, and she was certainly still my strongest ally. It was in fact, the worst possible time for scum!me to kill her because her parting words were so critical of me, but you can see in her journal that she still had me as town. Also I knew she was trying to draw the nightkill for some reason. I thought she knew she would be protected for some reason without the doctor. Turned out that she was faking the cop claim which I admittedly didn't realize. Killing her to suppress the result on me doesn't make sense, she said her result would be recorded in her journal.
I think scum killing Zen does make sense, even with the journal. Zen claimed comparison cop, so she would have a result last night on BoomFrog and Red Ryu (or LaserGuy?). It would have been inconclusive. But if she was able to get a second result tonight, it would have given more information.

BoomFrog wrote: Yes, that is literally what I did. I've given you a free pass because of being early on the moody lynch, so I went back to see what scummy behavior I could find. Your implication that FF and I are buddies desperately attacking the towniest players is pretty weak. I think we'd go after easier targets like Red, plytho or Laser. This is the same thing I was having with Bessie (who I'd find totally scummy right now if she wasn't confirmed town). Your logic is sound, but your actions have been very good for scum!you.
Can you explain this? Are you still trying to imply I’m scummy for not reading moody exactly the way you wanted me to read him?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:20 am UTC

Grumble... my phone browser crashed and I lost my original response to this. Apologise if this is terse.
Evil George Washington wrote:Boom, what happened to your Plytho tell you stated in D2? How does this affect your read now? What do you think of his overall play? Who are his buddies?
As Bessie and plytho himself pointed out, my D2 read of plytho didn't fit his actual thinking. At this point I've literally town read every player for some reason, it's time to check my assumptions. Overall my opinion of his play hasn't changed much, he has been consistently passive. D3 parking his vote on me when I wasn't a real potential lynch was tacitly allowing the JimBob lynch while keeping his hands clean.

Buddies are you and Sabrar, but on an individual level I'm most confident in him out of you three. Laser and mpolo are possibilities, with a very small chance of Sabrar+Madge.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:45 am UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: There's no clear pattern but it does confirm that FF and Red are way too attacked to be scum.
I don’t understand this comment, do you mean tunneled on by a few players too much to be scum, or attacked by too many different people to be scum?
The latter. Red had been attacked by everyone except FF and mpolo. FF had been attacked by everyone except Red and mpolo. Taken in a vacuum you might think that indicates those three are a scum team, but that always happens with these things, mpolo didn't attack anyone so it's easy to put him on any scum team. Red and FF have buddied too blatantly to both be scum in my opinion.

BoomFrog wrote: @Bessie: I'm not saying it's an amazing use of the power, but as someone who surly feels that he is likely to die at any night I do not think town!EGW would have withheld for two nights. He's really planning on being alive until N6? I don't think so. There's no reason for him to save telepathy. At bare minimum, he could have sent you a PM to prove his power before the mass claim. Would you not have found some use for it by now?
So you are scumreading EGW because he didn’t use his power the way that you would have used that power?

Not just didn't use it like I would have, he didn't use it at all. I don't know what he is saving it for, and I know my instincts are to use my powers ASAP in case I die. Especially as town leader.

And btw, that is only one of several points. He also put Sabrar in his list of serious attacks when the attack was clearly weak. Yet he left off Zen even though his attack on Zen was stronger. Convenient now that Zen is confirmed town but EGW doesn't want to look like he's buddies with Sabrar.

Third is that he put Red first in the claim order even though he knew Red's claim. Not reevaluating Red after learning he is a doctor doesn't make sense for town! EGW. Red's claim is stronger then mine, pushing Red over me also doesn't make sense.
Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:TBH, I’m not sure what Sabrar’s and BoomFrog’s magic meta read was in your initial post, but I don’t do that type of meta read.
bessie commented on both of my meta-posts regarding Madge (main one concerning initial post is here), so I don't understand this comment.
The rest is absolutely fine, her points regarding Madge's content (or rather lack of thereof) are valid.
I really hoped your unarguable unwavering town read on Madge is based on more than “Madge always claims in her first post when she’s town” which yes you present many examples but in my opinion is not strong enough evidence to completely disregard all other content posted in the game. I’m suspicious that you (and BoomFrog) have been unwilling to consider any of her content other than this meta read in her initial post in declaring Madge town, and you won’t reevaluate your read.
Fyi, I have considered Madges later content. I am surprised you don't have more sympathy for her RL schedule. She's perfectly portrayed busy townie who only skims the thread but does want to help.

BoomFrog wrote: I think I've demonstrated that I'm fairly adapt at reading Zen's mind. She basically just me with a better avatar and more free time. I was pretty sure Zen had forgiven me by the end of the day, and she was certainly still my strongest ally. It was in fact, the worst possible time for scum!me to kill her because her parting words were so critical of me, but you can see in her journal that she still had me as town. Also I knew she was trying to draw the nightkill for some reason. I thought she knew she would be protected for some reason without the doctor. Turned out that she was faking the cop claim which I admittedly didn't realize. Killing her to suppress the result on me doesn't make sense, she said her result would be recorded in her journal.
I think scum killing Zen does make sense, even with the journal. Zen claimed comparison cop, so she would have a result last night on BoomFrog and Red Ryu (or LaserGuy?). It would have been inconclusive. But if she was able to get a second result tonight, it would have given more information.
Agreed.
BoomFrog wrote: Yes, that is literally what I did. I've given you a free pass because of being early on the moody lynch, so I went back to see what scummy behavior I could find. Your implication that FF and I are buddies desperately attacking the towniest players is pretty weak. I think we'd go after easier targets like Red, plytho or Laser. This is the same thing I was having with Bessie (who I'd find totally scummy right now if she wasn't confirmed town). Your logic is sound, but your actions have been very good for scum!you.
Can you explain this? Are you still trying to imply I’m scummy for not reading moody exactly the way you wanted me to read him?
No. I'm 99%+ convinced that you are not scum. If you are a GodFather who lucked out in getting copped by the only one shot cop then congratulations on you stunning luck and enjoy your unearned victory.

However, if you were not so confirmed I'd be pushing your lynch toDay. Everyone left has acted townie in their own weird ways, so it's time to look at whose actions have lead us in a good direction and whose haven't.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:05 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Judgment works the same way right? If you get roleblocked you get to use it again? You know my claim is true.


Yes, judgment works the same way, hence why I asked. FWIW, I do believe you. Writing up my reads presently.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:48 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:This list is terrible. You left off Zen D2 but include Sabrar D3? Your attack on Zen was stronger then your attack on Sabrar. And why leave off Madge? You still didn't answer that.


I never voted Zen. I voted Sabrar. I also never voted Madge. You also left off Jim. Why did you leave off Jim from yourself?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:48 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:There's lots of different reasons that scum use to choose their kills, and which ones are most important depend on the specific players on the team.


Fair point on Maven having him as null. I do agree with this quote, though. That is why I am wondering what prompted you to ask me about the Zen kill, if you really dislike thinking about night kills.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:18 am UTC

bessie: Town. Cleared by Peaceful Whale.

Red Ryu: Town. Cleared by claim. I had been thinking about various scenarios that this could be fake and it just doesn’t seem all that likely to me.

BoomFrog: Town. Mostly cleared by claim. As I noted earlier, there is an edge case where Boom could potentially fake this claim with setup knowledge, but I ultimately don’t think this lines up with the data. Faking his claim in such a way as for it to appear that he has a failed interaction with Red Ryu doesn’t make a lot of sense considering how easily verifiable RR’s role is, and scum!BoomFrog would probably know not to put himself in a situation where people had to choose between lynching him and a claimed doctor to sort this out. Boom’s point that he would probably have been able to come up with a better claim given full setup knowledge is fair enough. Most likely conclusion is that BoomFrog is a watcher as claimed and was roleblocked N2 by heury/Yolinda, and therefore Town.

As I’ve mentioned previously, I think it extremely unlikely that scum!Boom would elect to kill Zyth at this juncture. Even though Zyth did move away from BoomFrog at the end of the night, his last post was conciliatory. I just don’t see scum!Boom making this move and leaving himself without his strongest ally.

BoomFrog’s end of day posting did feel a bit odd. But the only way this leads to scum!BoomFrog is if Boom/Frozen were scum together, which nobody seems prepared to put on the table. I don’t read much into this beyond that trying to change the lead lynch in less than an hour is maybe not the smartest idea. FWIW, it’s only by chance that I was around to change my vote either.

Mpolo: Likely Town. Claim and townie use of power, voted to put himself as judgment hammer. I don’t see anything in his posts that stands out to me. Not cleared, but about as close as I can reasonably get.

Sabrar: Likely Town. I just don’t see him and moody as likely buddies. Sabrar was pushing moody’s lynch pretty hard, and voluntarily switched from Town!jim to scum!moody when jimbob was well ahead. IIRC, he isn’t a big fan of bussing anyway, and I think he could have safely contrived a reason to push for a townie lynch had he wanted to. Using his jailer power on Madge even though he’s very strongly townreading her also feels quite townie.

EGW: Likely Town. Pretty much the same reasons as Sabrar. Role in moody lynch looks very positive given jimbob’s flip, certainly had the means and opportunity to push for a townie lynch if he had desired to. As I mentioned before, I do think that his propensity for making somewhat preposterous cases (e.g. against me, Sabrar/Madge/bessie) is more likely coming from a townie point of view than an informed scummy one


Madge: Likely scum. I’m with bessie on her. There’s very, very little here that indicates to me that Madge is town. Even skimming through the multitude of games that Sabrar posted on Town!Madge… to she doesn’t read the way that she does this game. Madge completely aware of her meta as far as claiming, etc. are concerned, so presumably she could be crafty about it if she wanted to. I’d be tempted to go back to indie, but her claimed power makes no sense for any indie role that I can think of.

I’m also thinking about this and this given moody’s flip.

The most recent sequence of posts does read more to me like a frustrated townie.

Frozen: Likely scum. Nothing much has changed about this read here. He’s overly defensive, active lurking, promising content and not delivering. Claim is unverifiable. Only real point in his favor is that with both RR and jimbob flipping Town, it’s somewhat less likely that he’s scum. I don't agree with BoomFrog that the number of players targeting him is indicative of him being Town, as his play has been sufficiently bad that his partners ought to be bussing him.

Plytho: Likely scum. What really stands out to me about plytho is how defensive his play is. He is deliberately trying not to make waves. He has a pretty excellent power, if town, of being able to mason recruit. Yet what stands out to me is that he wasn’t at all willing to use this power if it put him at any risk. His claimed reason for not wanting to attempt to draw votes D1 was that he felt that asking for a vote was sufficiently scummy that it would result in him getting lynched. I don’t know why he would reach that conclusion in the first place, but the idea that it’s more worthwhile not to use his power and just be vanilla versus actually take a risk and gain some useful allies in chat doesn’t strike me as townie.

This post is awful. He does an analysis comparing his own reads to those of the rest of the group, with the result that his reads are essentially the “town consensus.” He isn’t trying to use the results to figure out who is scum, he’s trying to use these results to make himself look townier. He doesn’t want his reads to stand out as interesting or important. He’s just the average. Now, I should point out the obvious: He’s including unknown scummy players in this analysis, so there isn’t really any way he’s going to find anything interesting just by looking at raw averages. It’s just pointless busywork.

There’s other examples of this sort of play, such as putting five lurkers as his scummiest reads D1.
On the whole, this sort of behaviour is not what I would expect from a townie.

Town
LaserGuy
bessie
Red Ryu
BoomFrog
mpolo
Sabrar
EGW

Madge
Frozen
plytho
Scum

Top three: {plytho, Frozen, Madge}

I’d be willing to entertain the possibility of a No Lynch as my 4th.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:20 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:There's lots of different reasons that scum use to choose their kills, and which ones are most important depend on the specific players on the team.


Fair point on Maven having him as null. I do agree with this quote, though. That is why I am wondering what prompted you to ask me about the Zen kill, if you really dislike thinking about night kills.


Because while I don't generally like speculating about these things, I am having trouble envisioning a circumstance where scum!Boom would consider killing Town!Zen to be beneficial.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:34 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I’d be willing to entertain the possibility of a No Lynch as my 4th.


Why? Also, why haven't you been as active/engaging in thread?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:39 am UTC

Plytho: Please give me your read on Laser.
Boom: Read on Laser as well.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:11 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I started this post with the intention of proving EGW was forced back onto the moody wagon, but he barely was. Sabrar did pressure him, but not that much. Sabrar and EGW do loook really good here. Plytho only moves after it's obvious that moody is going down.

So EGW and Sabrar look really good on the moody lynch and me not so much (I guess you haven't payed any attention to what I was actually saying and doing) but we're still likely a team? Coordinating our votes to lynch our buddy?

I think you're reaching here.

BoomFrog wrote:Buddies are you and Sabrar, but on an individual level I'm most confident in him out of you three. Laser and mpolo are possibilities, with a very small chance of Sabrar+Madge.


Me and LaserGuy is ridiculous.

I'm still convinced BoomFrog is scum.

[I'd like to vote BoomFrog here but I have no idea what the votes are?]


I've been reading FrozenFlame as scum for a while but I'm pretty sure I never mentioned his activity. It started with his reluctance to vote moody D1. Later I mentioned his 'defense' that he was on all the right wagons, which isn't true. I don't like his opening post today. He thanks Zen for giving him town credit and then points out how right Zen was in a bunch of early reads. It's like he's saying: look, that townie read those others correctly, must mean he's correct about me too.


Read on LaserGuy on request: this is a tough one. LaserGuy does a lot of things I don't understand and there are weird interactions with BoomFrog. The problem is that I don't understand why a townie would play like that but it's equally hard to find a scum reason for his behavior. His outing of me makes no sense either way. His interactions with BoomFrog aren't subtle at all, not how I expect buddies to behave. He doesn't understand or wilfully misrepresents why I was hesitant to ask for votes for my power.

Despite his BoomFrog interactions being too on the nose I still think they could be buddies.
he him his

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:12 am UTC

There is only one vote on Boom from myself.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:16 am UTC

In that case

Vote: BoomFrog
he him his

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby bessie » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:18 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote: Fyi, I have considered Madges later content. I am surprised you don't have more sympathy for her RL schedule. She's perfectly portrayed busy townie who only skims the thread but does want to help.
That’s an interesting observation: that she’s portrayed her role perfectly.

BoomFrog wrote: However, if you were not so confirmed I'd be pushing your lynch toDay. Everyone left has acted townie in their own weird ways, so it's time to look at whose actions have lead us in a good direction and whose haven't.
Yes, of course, I haven’t contributed anything positive at all. Unlike Madge.

BoomFrog, interesting you were pushing for Evil George Washington’s lynch but switched to plytho. I wonder why. Maybe because you don’t care if Megaman absorbs plytho’s power. It would be quite inconvenient for scum if Megaman absorbs the Barrier or the Paralysis power.

LaserGuy wrote: Because while I don't generally like speculating about these things, I am having trouble envisioning a circumstance where scum!Boom would consider killing Town!Zen to be beneficial.
Zen claimed comparison cop, and asked Red Ryu to send him BoomFrog. Ally or not, it appeared Zen was going to have a cop result on BoomFrog.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:21 am UTC

Plytho: Boomfrog, LaserGuy
Boomfrog: EGW, Plytho
Madge: Frozenflame

Not voting: Bessie, MPOLO, Red Ryu, Madge, Sabrar

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch! Deadline is Friday, October 16 at 11:59:59 PM EST!

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:23 am UTC

EBWOP Deadline is Monday, October 16th. That's what I get for copy pasting the mod's line. :P

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:36 am UTC

I will try to construct a reads list much later today. (Have to sleep, and then go to work)

I want to see reads lists and votes today (as in Sunday) so that we don't scramble.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:45 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I’d be willing to entertain the possibility of a No Lynch as my 4th.


Why? Also, why haven't you been as active/engaging in thread?


With an even number of players, it's likely that we're going to want to do it at some point or other.

For the other, I didn't have a lot of time this week, and was mostly content to use the time trying to do some rereads until the claims resolved.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:47 am UTC

Why did you think Jim was scum?


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