Crossover Mafia | Game!

For your simulated organized crime needs.

Moderators: jestingrabbit, Moderators General, Prelates

User avatar
#HBC | Zyth
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:11 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:01 am UTC

Questions/Comments/Responses

plytho:

plytho wrote:These three are in my do not lynch pool until my assumptions are proven wrong. @all If you think I’m wrong about my assumptions leading to these conclusions about Sabrar, EGW or jimbobmacdoodle, please explain why.

I can agree with the two assumptions that you listed, but there is a third assumption that you're making that you did not list: The scum team was strong/confident enough to push another direction. I think this is the assumption that is causing your reasoning to spiral into wrongness. There's more or less three types of ways that scum players proceed through the game: manipulate, blend in, or cower.

Manipulative players are usually confident, at the forefront of things, and pretty opaquely anti-town. (Ex: Zen, plytho).
Blend-in players try to play brownie townie, do and say things that town would, and follow the tides as much as possible. (Ex: jim)
Cowering players say very little, have difficulty making reads, and show little investment in the game. (Ex: Gamma, Moody)

Based on how little moody did to try and save himself, I doubt he and his team thought there was much hope in saving him. And it's likely that scum mostly consists of cautious players. You're forgetting that we did the prevote tally thing before we even started voting. Moody would have looked doomed to a cautious-playing scum team. It would have been too risky in their eyes to go out and try and push for someone else when in all likelihood moody was going to be the play. If they were pushing someone else when moody was lynched, their scummy arses would have been left out right in the open.

-

Based on this, I don't think you should reason that jim is town. It's totally possible that both wagons consisted of scum, and the team decided to bus the weaker of the two. I do agree with your reasoning on EGW and Sabrar, however, because they switched at a pivotal point and had the strength to lynch Ruy or Gamma. jim's vote was pretty empty from what I can remember.


---

plytho wrote:Btw, this quote from Zen applies to Zen’s town read of Gamma as well.
No it doesn't. I never argued that gamma wasn't mafia because of his wagon, I argued that he wasn't mafia because of the way he was playing.
plytho wrote:Zen: His claim about his hidden message is inconsistent with Sabrar’s claim.
wut
plytho wrote:He still hasn’t clarified what his plan was with the jimbob wagon: serious attempt to lynch a serious read or a weak attempt to tempt scum.
A serious attempt to lynch someone I didn't expect people to lynch. If somehow my expectations were broken and people did want to lynch him, I totally would have continued it. It was also a serious attempt at creating a counter wagon to see how things developed. I'm not sure why you think these two had to be mutually exclusive. They weren't.
plytho wrote:Our interaction isn’t necessarily TvS.
I don't think that if bessie is town, then you have to be scum. I never said this. You just keep extrapolating stuff from my posts that I never had the intention of meaning. What I do think that it is likely that one of you is scum and that one of you is town. That doesn't mean that a town flip on you condemns bessie or that a town flip on bessie condemns you.
plytho wrote:Zen hasn’t provided his case on bessie yet. He wanted to wait for D3. How convenient if scum happens to lynch town!bessie. That way he doesn’t need to make a case and can just push for my lynch.
What bessie said.
plytho wrote:Fun triangle: LaserGuy thinks I’m scum, I think Zen is scum, Zen thinks LaserGuy is scum
Reverse: I think LaserGuy is town, Zen thinks I am town, LaserGuy thinks Zen is town?

I'm totally right.


---

Since you're not responding to bessie today, I'll just ask these myself:

How would Laser's power be too powerful in a game with 20 players? And where the mod implied in the opening post that we would need to clear out lurkers ourselves?


Interesting you didn’t give any indication you ever saw this:
LaserGuy wrote:
bessie wrote:Re: lynching lurkers. Perhaps it would be better to try to figure out a way to keep LaserGuy around for a while so he can clear out some of the lurkers for us and we don’t have to waste a lynch?

This is a good idea, but sadly I can't really help out here.


when you were searching for a reason you thought LaserGuy’s power was one shot.


What did you cut out here:

"Bessie: I won’t talk to you D3 and there will be , I look forward to your improved reads."

_____________________________________________________________________________

sabrar:

Image

Sabrar wrote:@LaserGuy: you had me solidly Town here and almost neutral here without interacting with me in the slightest between the two. Why?
I do not understand this. You asked me at least two questions like this as well. And you also agreed with Ran about it wrt my mind change with Spak. Why do you think that interaction is necessary for a read to change? Do you not change your mind simply by reevaluating and rereading through players posts?

--

@Sabrar for us non-statisticians, could you explain what those numbers are and where they were derived from?


_____________________________________________________________________________

bessie:

bessie wrote:Re Zyth’s read of me here, I didn’t have time to respond before work.

#HBC | Zyth wrote: i feel like bessie has been surfing over me much of the game. and i agree that the lack of interactions she's had with me is weird.
I’ve been seriously pondering this comment the past couple of days, because Evil George Washington said something similar, that I don’t interact with him. I have decided that I am quite puzzled as to exactly what kind of interaction you are both expecting, because I feel that I have done my best to answer your questions and interact with both of you. So I think that perhaps this is just a meta difference between how we all approach the game.

It's not a meta difference. Others (Laser et al.) have picked up on it as well. What I'm saying and what Ran was saying are different. Ran likes live interactions. That's what he wanted from you. I'm saying that you've done very little prodding and commenting of me and a few others (such as spak and jim and sabrar). It was as if you were waiting to commit to a read one way or the other. It didn't feel like this lack of commitment was coming from being unsure though, because you weren't actively trying to develop these reads through prodding and questioning. So I suspect that you either: (A) just didn't have the time to get into us as deeply as you wanted to, since there were so many players and so much to read; (B) were just waiting to see which way the wind blew before you committed a thorough read on these players; Or (C) were having trouble faking a read on us. Again, I feel like if it were the first case -- you not having enough time to do a deep analysis -- that you still would have been prodding and questioning us.

#HBC | Zyth wrote: bessie has also surfed over a number of other ppl. the big ones being spak and jimbob (though i can't blame her for the latter, jimbob is a tough one to dig into). she has kept herself at a distance from those three (zen, spak, jim) all game. this despite jim having been one of her main scum reads (d1 in particular). ive been waiting all game for her analyses of these slots. and every time i think she's gonna do it, she just kind of glances over them. this makes me feel that scum!bessie is having difficulty faking reads on these slots. she's also having difficulty fake hunting. she has not really made any real pursuits to unpack her scum leads (such as jim and plytho).
You forgot to mention that I surfed over Sabrar. And I feel made enough points on jimbob spread out over D1 to justify my vote (I just did not compile them into a single post), not as many D2 but he didn’t ask me many questions. And seriously do you not see my issues with plytho? Most of my D2 content was related to him.

I honestly don't know what you find scummy about jim. I also don't think you've argued why plytho is scum rather than simply plytho.


#HBC | Zyth wrote: furthermore, plytho was actually in the right in the whole bessie v plytho thing. although plytho's "we gotta make sure protectors see it" thing was pretty wack, it didn't make much sense for bessie to react the way she did towards plytho when he pointed out her not mentioning pws claim. she could've easily told pw not to say any more and make clear to plytho what he concerns were. instead she just talked around it until finally coming up with an answer d2. this to me is one of the weaker points on bessie though because it's possible she reacted this way due to her past experience with plytho. that past experience could've caused her to misread the situation here.
No. plytho was fishing for setup information. And from my point of view, (1) it made perfect sense for me to react the way I did, (2) it did not make sense for me to reveal my concerns by telling plytho what they were, and he went on to fish pretty heavily for them anyway, and (3) it was either talk around it or say it, and I didn’t want to say it, that’s what this disagreement was about. And me misreading this is your opinion, I don’t think I’m misreading this at all. Past experience, read Refrigerator Mafia D1.

I read over plytho in Fridge. You're either misreading this situation because of Fridge, or you're intentionally misconstruing it.


---

@bessie can you tell us more about PW's role? Did he target you n0 or n1? Did his ability target a player and if they were town they became a Mason with him? Or were you already Masons and he was a one-shot Cop. Or was he a one-shot Cop and a one-shot Masonizer?

---

Holy shyt. Just read the rest of your post. Many great observations and questions. I really would like to know though what you found scummy about jim before end of d2.

--

@bessie, I disagree that it was scummy for people to ask for PWs results near the end of D2. He had outted too much of is role and was very likely to be the nk. From our pov (not knowing he was Mason), it was too risky for him not to fully out, because we would have been losing the information if he was nkd.

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:21 am UTC

Zen: When did you start to doubt your scumread on Spak? Can you quote what made you reconsider? What are your reads looking like today?

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby bessie » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:24 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Bessie, I see a lot of people at the bottom of your list that aren’t mafia reads (eg. indies/inactives). Who do you believe is actually mafia? Why did you make your list this way after you agreed with me here that making your list this way can be deceptive? Did you ultimately agree with EGW that Znirk/heury were likely mafia?

Post flip note: I see someone else made this point. Would still like the answer. I also assumed that PW had copped bessie based on his crumbing, though I had figured him to be some sort of weak cop/hider variant that would die if they targeted mafia.

It’s a town-scum ordered list, not a town-mafia ordered list. It’s non-scum-specific (I’ve discussed in previous games the reasons I try to use “mafia” when specifically referring to “mafia”). Thus the inclusion of Amrock near the bottom, as he is an anti-town indie and scummy. I included all the current players on the list because they were all current players. I don’t see the point you’re referencing in the linked post. It’s an ordered list. There is no neutral line in that list (I was asked about this by someone later and would put it at about BoomFrog if I had to commit), and I had not yet made a setup spec, so I didn’t have a scum quota to fill. I was leaning scum on heury because someone saw him on the forum but he didn’t make a post (don’t remember details right now), so possible scared newbieish scum that doesn’t know where to go with the overload of content, and part of it was a meta read (he lurked out of MMM II and he was mafia). Znirk similar (possible scared newbieish scum that doesn’t know where to go with the overload of content) but not as strong because Znirk did say he would be traveling, but I would think that he would have at least made a check in before he left.

I’m still pondering the setup. I’ve been leaning toward more than one anti-town faction. Based on the flips, my current guess is one main mafia group with a kill, one anti-town group with a goal based wincon, and 2-3 independents.

Ninja’d by EGW and Zyth, might respond tonight but I have an early meeting every Monday.

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4585
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:26 am UTC

@bessie, that didn't really answer my question. Who do you think is mafia?

User avatar
#HBC | Zyth
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:11 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:26 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote: In fact, this was particularly vexing to me because I had been thinking about voting Spak for awhile at that point. Nobody was interested in plytho or FrozenFlame and Spak was my next strongest read, but I was waiting for you to ask me because I knew BoomFrog was uncomfortable wagoning with me, and I thought he might back off if I voted for Spak unprompted.
This doesn't seem like townie thinking to me.


@EVERYONE: As town, have you ever not voted a scum read because you felt it would make one of your town reads not vote that player?

I'm sorry this is just not town.

Side Note: The more plytho defends you, the more I'm starting to think he's actually scum.

@bessie: jim, plytho, Laser scum amiright?

Image


Furthermore, Laser, I don't see why you would drop your scum reads because no one was joining you. Why would you not try to get more out of your scum reads or push them further? You were changing your views to whatever was convenient.

And I'm sorry, I don't see why someone who knew their own alignment would try and take the hit over someone who's alignment they didn't know in this case. mpolo was going to be the judgement hammerer, but you randomly decided to take the hit over him. This would make sense if mpolo was a strong town read for everyone or he had some super useful role, but neither of these is the case. You say that he was townier than you, but it's not the case. He's pretty null overall and getting rid of the slot would have been useful imo. I think you were just doing this to get townie points. Show that you were willing to sacrifice yourself. This is scum motivated to me. Also I suspect that you might not have died even if you were the hammerer. Interesting that plytho keeps trying to convince me otherwise.

--

Yeah, I'm liking bessie's EoD post and the observations she made on plytho and jim and madge. Disliking Laser more n more. Would like to lynch Laser today and have Madge hammer. Madge needs to be the hammerer today regardless of who we lynch.

User avatar
#HBC | Zyth
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:11 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:30 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Zen: When did you start to doubt your scumread on Spak? Can you quote what made you reconsider? What are your reads looking like today?

I like pie. My favorite type is apple, but I also like peach.

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:30 am UTC

bessie wrote:It’s a town-scum ordered list, not a town-mafia ordered list. It’s non-scum-specific (I’ve discussed in previous games the reasons I try to use “mafia” when specifically referring to “mafia”).


Have you explained that in this game specifically?

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:33 am UTC

Hi MPOLO, thoughts on current events?

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:38 am UTC

bessie wrote:This is pinging me, though I’m not sure why.
Also not sure. FF said that even if Zen is scum we should let her live and lynch a lurker instead. I've explained why it's a terrible idea, that's all.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Why do you think that interaction is necessary for a read to change? Do you not change your mind simply by reevaluating and rereading through players posts?
I do reevaluate people but if I have a change of heart I will explain my reasons. LaserGuy didn't, that's why I'm asking him about them now.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:@Sabrar for us non-statisticians, could you explain what those numbers are and where they were derived from?
As per EGW's request from earlier this will be done today.

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby bessie » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:39 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Bessie, is there anything you'd like to know from me?
Yes. Do you have any further insight on Frozen Flame? Someone (maybe you?) said that he gets killed early often, and it affects his early posting (I may be mistaken, going by memory and I don't have time to search for it now). He also made an early game joke about regularities with his slot which I took to mean that he's often scum. This is my second game with him and all I have is a general feeling that I like what he has had to say but nothing in particular has been memorable.

User avatar
mpolo
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm UTC
Location: Germany

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby mpolo » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:41 am UTC

I'm going to have to come back later with real content (meeting in 10 minutes). But because of the possibility of my role to create confusion, I'm going to stick a spoiler here with my targets -- read it if and when it is helpful, since I'm sure some would prefer to wait on knowing this, but if I reveal later there is suspicion that I tampered with the results.

Spoiler:
I bussed Sabrar and jimbobmacdoodle. That means that actions targetting Sabrar actually targetted jimbob, and actions targetting jimbob actually targetted Sabrar.


Ninja (EGW): My "poor reads" have been pretty much all vindicated at this point. (To wit, I did not want to lynch Spak, did not want to lynch Peaceful Whale, had bessie as a town read which seems likely from PWs content, etc.) I only wish I had some clear scum reads. I sincerely hope that there are no more indies to distract us, because we need to concentrate on scum. At this point, we either have an extremely talented doctor/roleblocker or we really do have only one scum team. Which should make it easy to pick out connections. I should have an hour or so after lunch today.

Ninja (bessie and Sabrar): I'm not going to read your posts right now, because otherwise I won't get anything posted.
Image <-- Evil experiment

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:43 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:I like pie. My favorite type is apple, but I also like peach.


Thank you for acknowledging that I asked you a question. I like how you acted like I just asked you a trivial question and you give me a trivial answer. Cute, I also like your avatar. You can drop the reads part, as you gave something on that in your previous post. I still want to know the answer to the first two parts of my question. Explain please. :)

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby bessie » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:50 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@bessie, that didn't really answer my question. Who do you think is mafia?
As in who are moody's partners? I don't know yet. I will make a guess on this today though.

Evil George Washington wrote:
bessie wrote:It’s a town-scum ordered list, not a town-mafia ordered list. It’s non-scum-specific (I’ve discussed in previous games the reasons I try to use “mafia” when specifically referring to “mafia”).

Have you explained that in this game specifically?
No. It never occurred to me that I would need to explain it until LaserGuy asked. I thought it was obvious from the inclusion of indie-Amrock that "scum" was anti-town and not necessarily moody-mafia.

Zyth and everyone else that posted on this page, I'll try to get back to this tonight but it may be tomorrow.

User avatar
#HBC | Zyth
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:11 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:54 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:I like pie. My favorite type is apple, but I also like peach.


Thank you for acknowledging that I asked you a question. I like how you acted like I just asked you a trivial question and you give me a trivial answer. Cute, I also like your avatar. You can drop the reads part, as you gave something on that in your previous post. I still want to know the answer to the first two parts of my question. Explain please. :)
Nope. You seriously made me mad and brushed off my frustration like it wasn't serious. Unless you sincerely apologize, I don't intend to answer anything you ask me unless it is game mechanic/strategy related. Lynch me if you want. What's your favorite pie?

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:07 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Nope. You seriously made me mad and brushed off my frustration like it wasn't serious. Unless you sincerely apologize, I don't intend to answer anything you ask me unless it is game mechanic/strategy related. Lynch me if you want. What's your favorite pie?


Look, I'm sorry if I made you mad. I don't intend to play in a way that makes anyone mad at all, I hope you know that. How did I make you mad? Also, it wasn't cool that you said you wouldn't play with me ever again. Apple pie.

User avatar
#HBC | Zyth
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:11 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:34 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:Nope. You seriously made me mad and brushed off my frustration like it wasn't serious. Unless you sincerely apologize, I don't intend to answer anything you ask me unless it is game mechanic/strategy related. Lynch me if you want. What's your favorite pie?


Look, I'm sorry if I made you mad. I don't intend to play in a way that makes anyone mad at all, I hope you know that. How did I make you mad? Also, it wasn't cool that you said you wouldn't play with me ever again. Apple pie.
You always judge me actvity-wise based on how you think I should play. I constantly have to explain to you not to do this. You always agree then do it again. I had put so many hours into this game so it was frustrating that you were claiming that I wasn't doing anything. It also felt that you weren't answering my inquiries or requests because you thought I was scum and thus a second-class citizen. I was particularly annoyed by this because of how out of my way I've gone to answer your requests this game. I felt that if you answered me rather than brushed me off, you would have faced data that was contradictory to your thoughts. But you wouldn't actually talk things out with me.

I'm sorry I said that. It isn't true.

I'll answer your spak question tomorrow (going to sleep).

btw you really gotta stop reading people off of thread viewing.

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:53 am UTC

Second class citizen made me giggle. :P I did tell you that I work constantly, so I'm not able to be interacting live as much as I'd like. If you'd like to talk, we can talk tomorrow. I'm off. We can talk reads.

User avatar
#HBC | Zyth
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:11 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:10 am UTC

@ Ruy, Bessie, egw, mpolo, zen, Frozen, Yolinda, Sabrar, Madge, Boom: let's hard body quick lynch laser (Madge hammers) and call it a day.

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:13 am UTC

I really need answers from Bessie and I really need to see Yolinda catch up/post content.

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:24 am UTC

Frozen Flame: I want a reads list from you today. Any thoughts on current events?

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:42 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:EBWOP:
Actually, writing that out makes me feel better about this
Vote Spak


Can you go into your thought process here? What exactly about what you wrote made you feel better about voting Spak? I want you to outline why you town read Zen.

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4585
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:11 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:EBWOP:
Actually, writing that out makes me feel better about this
Vote Spak


Can you go into your thought process here? What exactly about what you wrote made you feel better about voting Spak?


If you check in the spoiler in my earlier post under "Zyth/LaserGuy interactions, LaserGuy's point of view", you'll see my thought process on this section. I think it's the last bit. As I told you earlier, I really don't like voting on wagons that I think are pushed by scum, and I felt that Gamma's wagon definitely qualified. I wasn't sure about Spak's wagon until I wrote that post.

I want you to outline why you town read Zen.


Honestly, I'm baffled that you haven't reached the same conclusion.

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:19 am UTC

I'm waiting.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:29 am UTC

Math
Spoiler:
Take bessie's ordered list. Assign 1 to PW (most townie), 2 to EGW, 3 to LaserGuy, etc. Skip dead players, plytho gets 13 points for most scummy.
Repeat process for all players who gave lists to get 11 vectors.
Average rank: sum up all points a player received from others and divide by the number of lists.
Standard deviation: a measure that tells us how grouped the results are around the average rank. (a set of 4,5,5,5,5,6 has very low st.dev because the average is 5 and all values are close to it, a set of 0,0,0,10,10,10 also has 5 as average but the individual values are far from it so it has high st.dev). Players with low st.dev are mostly found at the same place in people's lists, players with high st.dev are divisive.
Correlation: a measure showing how much 2 lists are alike. High positive correlation shows very similar reads, high negative correlation indicates strong disagreement.

Interpreting the results: that's where it becomes wonky and the below is just my opinion and not something scientific.
- Low standard deviation means that there is consensus about that player's level of townieness so the average rank should be a fairly good indicative of that player's alignment.
- High standard deviation means players disagree about the spot a lot, might be scum pushing for a mislynch or defending their buddy hard, definitely a point of interest.
- High correlation between 2 players means their read-list is very similar. This could be due to a number of reasons: possible team-mates (could be Mason or scum) or one is scum sheeping the other, or simply having similar ideas about the game.
- Having low correlation with all other players indicates that the player's reads were likely not influenced by any other opinions so probably does not have connection to anyone.
- Having negative average correlation is strange, normally there are at least a couple of slots that are read similarly across players leading to at least a small positive correlation (11 read-lists make 55 pairs, only 17 among them had negative correlation). Negative average shows that the slot strongly disagrees with a majority of the players.

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:04 am UTC

Sabrar: Who are your top 3 scum picks for today and why?

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:11 am UTC

Zen: I actually think it's a good idea that Madge hammers today, actually.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:36 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Sabrar: Who are your top 3 scum picks for today and why?
Saw nothing that changed my mind from yesterday, Zen for connection to moody, plytho because he feels the same as in Fridge and FrozenFlame for active lurking.

Evil George Washington wrote:Zen: I actually think it's a good idea that Madge hammers today, actually.
Terrible idea to lose a town!vote for no good reason at all. Madge is harmless.

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:38 am UTC

What do you think of her not doing a D3 analysis like Plytho expected her to?

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:40 am UTC

I trust my read of her way more than plytho's.

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:42 am UTC

I mean meta-wise. Does that go along with her meta, to refuse doing a D3 analysis? What do you think of her refusing?

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:52 am UTC

How many claimed results (not just actual role-claims) have you seen? There is nothing for her to work with. I completely agree that she became lazy after I defended her but that doesn't influence my original read on her.

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:53 am UTC

Alright. What's your read on Boom Frog?

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:18 am UTC

I have a theory about Megaman. Zen, Bessie, Plytho, talk to me. Yolinda, catch up please.

User avatar
plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 176
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:29 am UTC

Bessie:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:Since you're not responding to bessie today, I'll just ask these myself:
Ok answering bessie’s questions through a third person is silly. I’ll answer bessie’s questions and concerns.

Spoiler:
bessie wrote:
plytho wrote: Well, that's it, I give up. Bessie, you can expect a giant pm after the game where I document you misunderstanding me in just about every single thing you said to me this game. I don't think there's any use in us talking to each other until we resolve that because the same thing will keep happening.
plytho’s not speaking to me anymore. That’s a very townie attitude.
Well I was (and still kind of am) frustrated about you doubting my sincerity, implying I’m deliberately and happily riling you up while I’m very frustrated with the whole thing. I’m not deliberately trying to make your game miserable and I’m upset that you think that’s what I’m trying to do.

bessie wrote:How is this too powerful in a game with 20 players? And where the mod implied in the opening post that we would need to clear out lurkers ourselves?
The lynch is one of town’s strongest tools. An extra daily lynch is a massively powerful extra tool. Especially if the person providing the power can not be nightkilled as long as they keep using it. As I pointed out before, the mod puts that rule in every game, it’s not specific to this one. If double lynches are standard in OS games I’ll retract this.

bessie wrote:As to the question regarding a consensus on LaserGuy’s next target, here were some suggestions:
bessie wrote: Re: lynching lurkers. Perhaps it would be better to try to figure out a way to keep LaserGuy around for a while so he can clear out some of the lurkers for us and we don’t have to waste a lynch?

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Laser's ability should be used to take out indies and inactives.
Some suggestions are quite different from from trying to get consensus on an extra lynch. What I would expect (and do) if there was such a power is make sure everyone is in agreement about LaserGuy’s next bonus lynch. Don’t let LaserGuy decide by himself. Get the entire thread to vote for LaserGuy’s next target and lynch LaserGuy if he doesn’t pick the right one.

LaserGuy wrote:
bessie wrote:Re: lynching lurkers. Perhaps it would be better to try to figure out a way to keep LaserGuy around for a while so he can clear out some of the lurkers for us and we don’t have to waste a lynch?

This is a good idea, but sadly I can't really help out here.

Interesting plytho didn’t give any indication he ever saw this when he was searching for a reason he thought LaserGuy’s power was one shot.
[/quote] Because all I searched was my mind and the original claim.

bessie wrote:
plytho wrote: Madge isn’t scum she’s a harmless indie at worst.
How many times have we been told that general convention at DGames is that there are no harmless indies?
Well, that means you can consider my read a town read on Madge. I don’t rely on conventions like that.
bessie wrote:
plytho wrote: Bessie: I won’t talk to you D3 and there will be , I look forward to your improved reads.
I know plytho’s not speaking to me, so can someone else repost this and ask plytho what he cut out of this sentence before he posted it?

I think I was going to write something like “there will be fewer players around so the number of posts will be a lot lower so you shouldn’t be bothered by those to make good reads anymore” but I wrote that days ago so I’m not sure.

bessie wrote:
plytho wrote: Zen hasn’t provided his case on bessie yet. He wanted to wait for D3. How convenient if scum happens to lynch town!bessie. That way he doesn’t need to make a case and can just push for my lynch.
Zen’s case on bessie. And you claimed these are your N2 reads. What do you mean "if scum lynches town!bessie"? When? The D2 lynch was over. If Zen posted his case on D3, then it would be posted before the D3 lynch.
My mistake, I meant nightkill instead of lynch. And the last time I asked Zen about his case on you he said he’d do it in the night phase. The post you link to doesn’t feel as a very strong case and was advertised as stream of consciousness. I noted it as ‘Zen agrees with some of my points’, not ‘Zen’s case on bessie’.

bessie wrote:plytho
Town. No, just kidding. He’s scum.

Rolefishing Peaceful Whale since D1. Arguing with me about it most of D2. Later on D2 he started to push a connection between me and Zen (read his case here). This is based on lack of interaction between me and Zen. See this post for my comments and open questions regarding that interaction. His scumhunting is focused on finding partners of moody. plytho keeps trying to tie me to moody from D1 vote analysis (also tried by jimbobmacdoodle).
I get that you’re tunneled on me and it’s hard to get out of that but:
1: I haven’t rolefished anyone
2: I look for connections when I scumhunt.
3: Hmm, my scumhunting is focused on finding moody’s partners, I wonder why that is? Could it be because moody is confirmed mafia? Nah, I must be on the rival team that we have no evidence for.


Zen:
Spoiler:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:Questions/Comments/Responses

plytho:

plytho wrote:These three are in my do not lynch pool until my assumptions are proven wrong. @all If you think I’m wrong about my assumptions leading to these conclusions about Sabrar, EGW or jimbobmacdoodle, please explain why.

I can agree with the two assumptions that you listed, but there is a third assumption that you're making that you did not list: The scum team was strong/confident enough to push another direction. I think this is the assumption that is causing your reasoning to spiral into wrongness. There's more or less three types of ways that scum players proceed through the game: manipulate, blend in, or cower.

Manipulative players are usually confident, at the forefront of things, and pretty opaquely anti-town. (Ex: Zen, plytho).
Blend-in players try to play brownie townie, do and say things that town would, and follow the tides as much as possible. (Ex: jim)
Cowering players say very little, have difficulty making reads, and show little investment in the game. (Ex: Gamma, Moody)

Based on how little moody did to try and save himself, I doubt he and his team thought there was much hope in saving him. And it's likely that scum mostly consists of cautious players. You're forgetting that we did the prevote tally thing before we even started voting. Moody would have looked doomed to a cautious-playing scum team. It would have been too risky in their eyes to go out and try and push for someone else when in all likelihood moody was going to be the play. If they were pushing someone else when moody was lynched, their scummy arses would have been left out right in the open.

-

Based on this, I don't think you should reason that jim is town. It's totally possible that both wagons consisted of scum, and the team decided to bus the weaker of the two. I do agree with your reasoning on EGW and Sabrar, however, because they switched at a pivotal point and had the strength to lynch Ruy or Gamma. jim's vote was pretty empty from what I can remember.
I didn’t forget about the prevote tally. This is the last one I could find. It has Red Ryu at 9, Gamma and moody at 7. It would have to be a very cautious team to bus moody based on that. Here are the votes at that point. 2 on Red Ryu, jimbob being one of them, 2 on moody and 3 on Gamma. EGW votes moody right after that. jimbob is next, making moody the lead wagon (and making Red Ryu less viable).

The case for jim being town based on his vote on moody is less strong than the case for Sabrar and EGW, but I still think it stands.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:Btw, this quote from Zen applies to Zen’s town read of Gamma as well.
No it doesn't. I never argued that gamma wasn't mafia because of his wagon, I argued that he wasn't mafia because of the way he was playing.
I’m referring to this quote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote: if gamma is not mafia, laser's reasoning here is classic mafia: get townie points for defending against the mislynch, then have an excuse to push everyone on the wagon. another multiple mislynch path. am i the only one that has gotten this vibe from the way laser has gone about this wagon?
Not the last part about the wagon, but the first part about getting townie points for defending against the mislynch and using that to push the next mislynch.
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:Zen: His claim about his hidden message is inconsistent with Sabrar’s claim.
wut
Link, I don’t believe this has been cleared up. @Sabrar: do you still think there’s an inconsistency here?
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:He still hasn’t clarified what his plan was with the jimbob wagon: serious attempt to lynch a serious read or a weak attempt to tempt scum.
A serious attempt to lynch someone I didn't expect people to lynch. If somehow my expectations were broken and people did want to lynch him, I totally would have continued it. It was also a serious attempt at creating a counter wagon to see how things developed. I'm not sure why you think these two had to be mutually exclusive. They weren't.
I guess this is sort of what I got from your initial defense. But BoomFrog’s interpretation that you were building a fake wagon to draw scum but were always going to lynch BoomFrog had me doubting that. I also expected a stronger result from you, in a sort of “here’s what I learned from my jimbob wagon” post.
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:Our interaction isn’t necessarily TvS.
I don't think that if bessie is town, then you have to be scum. I never said this. You just keep extrapolating stuff from my posts that I never had the intention of meaning. What I do think that it is likely that one of you is scum and that one of you is town. That doesn't mean that a town flip on you condemns bessie or that a town flip on bessie condemns you.
Umm
#HBC | Zyth wrote:I think I'm the only one that has bessie on suspect list, but I really feel strongly that bessie-plytho is TvS. I'm just not convinced that the S is plytho.
#HBC | Zyth wrote:The bolded here is also super weird! Please tell me you just missed the spoiler. Please, please, please. I really don't want you to be scum, cause I had this awesome case on bessie and now I'm going to have to burn it :(
I don’t think I’m extrapolating all that much. At the very least you said that if I was scum, bessie had to be town.
Pronouns: he him his
Avatar: The High Frontier by Angus McKie

User avatar
plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 176
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:29 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote: Plytho, talk to me.

Did I miss questions from you?
Pronouns: he him his
Avatar: The High Frontier by Angus McKie

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:32 am UTC

No, I just want to talk. Anything you'd like to know from me? So I assume you think there is one scum between Sabrar and Zen? Is that it?

User avatar
plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 176
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:41 am UTC

You mean because of that inconsistency? That could still be a misunderstanding. I think Sabrar is town.

As I've mentioned [urlhttp://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4250574#p4250574]here[/url] I'm assuming 2 scum in that list of 5. 4 now because I'm with Sabrar, assuming PW copped bessie.
Pronouns: he him his
Avatar: The High Frontier by Angus McKie

User avatar
plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 176
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:41 am UTC

EBWOP: url

plytho wrote:You mean because of that inconsistency? That could still be a misunderstanding. I think Sabrar is town.

As I've mentioned here I'm assuming 2 scum in that list of 5. 4 now because I'm with Sabrar, assuming PW copped bessie.
Pronouns: he him his
Avatar: The High Frontier by Angus McKie

User avatar
Evil George Washington
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:42 am UTC

Yes because of the inconsistency. Who claimed it first?

User avatar
plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 176
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:48 am UTC

Umm, Zen claimed his power. Sabrar kind of confirmed it but said his side didn't entirely match zen's claim. There was some back and forth but, unless I missed it, no resolution.
Pronouns: he him his
Avatar: The High Frontier by Angus McKie


Return to “Mafia”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Evil George Washington and 13 guests