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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:50 am UTC

I find it strange that if Zen didn't know how the pm received by her targets was worded then why she didn't ask for clarification from the mod. Also this probably can be resolved by last night's target if it becomes a corner issue.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:50 am UTC

Alright. I'm going to sleep. Sabrar, is Plytho's recollection correct? If not, can you clarify?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:51 am UTC

@Evil George Washington: what's you read on the four people remaining on that list of mine?
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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:02 pm UTC

Boom - Scum.
Bessie - Slight Town.
Mpolo - Null.
Zen - Null.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:02 pm UTC

I think that's how it happened. Will look at it once more but it looks good.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:03 pm UTC

@EGW: why do you have bessie as only a slight town? Do you think she might be GF?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:08 pm UTC

Boom is scum because he had disingenuous questioning towards Spak yesterday. He tried pushing Plytho and then was fine with him in the very same page. He also seemed to slip saying that he doubted Spak or Gamma were scum, I don't think someone who truly believed Spak was scum would say that by accident.

---

Bessie is slight town as I like some of her points today, and PW did seem to Mason Cop her, so she's fine for now. Yet I'm still open to questioning her, for her missing pings and such.

---

Mpolo is null, I tried re-reading him but I can't get a bead on him.

---

Zen is null, I'm currently re-evaluating him right now.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:13 pm UTC

Thanks.

What about Frozenflame? (I kind of moved bessie off my list)

And what do you think of my reasoning in my opening post today particularly my PoE townies?

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:17 pm UTC

I think Frozen Flame is still null, not giving me any townie vibes, which is why I want his full reads list today.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:19 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@EGW: why do you have bessie as only a slight town? Do you think she might be GF?


PW was pretty obvious with who he was going to target. It's possible MPOLO switched her around, I'm not ruling that out. Yet I'm fine with her for now. I just found it weird that she never got to her 'interesting' points on you and Zen, and then her factoring the N1 pings on Boom.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:20 pm UTC

Some quotes I dug up on Boom:

BoomFrog wrote:However, he [MPOLO] earned townie points from me and since my opinion is the most important thing in the game it was a good choice overall. Actually, typing this out I'm leaving more town then Indy on him.


I was reminded of this thanks to Jim. I find the underlined in being a cop out justification. "Since my opinion is the most important thing" sounds silly. It doesn't actually justify why giving MPOLO (who he denoted as not mafia) town points so early was a good choice overall.

BoomFrog wrote:5) You didn't say this, but I dragged my heels at the end of D1 to change over from Red to Moody. I was concerned that you [EGW] were leading me to lynch a bad looking townie and saved your scum buddy Red. Then Moody had his terrible updated read list and offered to basically vote anyone besides himself and showed a complete lack of scumhunting. Actually, you trying to switch from moody to Spak or Red made me feel better about staying on moody.


I find this to be a cop out answer for why he dragged his heels, even though I never brought that up. It would make more sense if he had progression on me, and if he had asked me why I was pushing Moody. He asked me why I was going for Moody over Red Ryu, but I gave my answer, that he was my scum read. He never followed up from there. I find this to be a slight omgus, and I don't find it to be sincere.

Evil George Washington wrote:
plytho wrote:[NinEdit: there seems to be some discussion between Zen and EGW concerning how big a role BoomFrog played in the moody lynch. He voted early and made a case against moody. This does not at all feel like a bus.]


This is simplifying the matter. He voted without a case and took a long while before answering to Zen about his meta 'scum tell' on him. Others (like myself and Sabrar) voted him first, and there was plenty of support [Heuaristically_Alone, Sabrar, Maven] for Moody in thread before he got around to it. He didn't interact with Moody nor question him. (iicr) I'm not feeling the '70% confidence' statement from him either. I don't know what your idea of bus is [Please tell me], but here is what it seems like to me. Boom's response feels like a lazy push that puts Moody at a hands distance, and finally gets around to committing [while withholding his case for a while] closer to deadline. I appreciate you going into the read though.


I still think this is the case with Boom D1. I don't understand why some people don't see that it is a bus as it has effectively given him town credit, while not doing too much with Moody himself. He had no real progression. Plytho states his reasoning wasn't convincing either.

BoomFrog wrote:Regarding Bessie: I'm suprised that she didn't pick up on the mpolo thing. She noted it, but she didn't feel it odd that mpolo's "data was lost". I'm leaning slightly scum which makes me sad. :(


I find this suspect because he originally was waiting for Bessie so he could give his reason for voting Moody. He voted Moody stating he wouldn't give his details until Bessie posted or I asked nicely for it. I find this to be an odd quip as if scumreading her for not being able to give him content he could use in his own reasoning afterword.

BoomFrog wrote:My vote on Moody wasn't lazy, it was calculated. I wanted to get Bessie's read on Moody before I justified mine so I could use that chance to judge her.


I find this reasoning to being a total cop out too. I don't believe this. Why would he judge her while considering that the scum tell on Moody was his as he has said? (and not something Bessie should have seen otherwise he would have stated it)

BoomFrog wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:Vote: Gamma

Two birds.

I'm skimming like crazy here. Can't post much. JimBob's probably scum, he's going for the easy lynch targets. (Gamma and Zen). Laser is maybe, I'd need to reread. I doubt Spak or Gamma are scum. EGW seems crazy, possible second team scum.

Should I switch with you? Quote me in your reply.


This sounds like he slipped about Spak's alignment here. He doesn't seem to remember his read on Spak, he clarifies with this:

@Zen: To clarify. I think Spack is more likely scum then gamma. I've read gammas claim and blow up and they feel townie. Why would lyncher claim so blatantly?

But I've likely missed key info, so in a few sentences can you convince me why I should switch?


Totally different phrasing then 'I doubt spak or gamm are scum'. I would understand if he typo'd with one word, but this is more than one word. You have to ask yourself why he would even think of doubting his spak read if he is voting there. I think it's because he really doesn't believe it.

BoomFrog wrote:You really think Spack is faking it? There's so many people I'd rather lynch. Sigh... we need the flip. I'm going hammer in few minutes unless I hear a good reason not to.

P edit. Fine.

Vote Spak


This sounds like a weak justification to switch wagons.

BoomFrog wrote:
Spak wrote:To be honest, my role being cleared as town should make an interesting D3 if you look at how haphazard my wagon was. Hopefully you guys will be able to find scum in the mess that was the end of this phase.

You probably paid the most attention to how it formed. Who was the most optimistic about jumping on it? Who didn't care between you and Gamma but pushed both?


I think the underlined is disingenuous. He already has a target in his mind, he knows who swung the wagon. [Me] So why is he asking Spak as if he doesn't know? What's his purpose? I don't like how he phrased this question.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:23 pm UTC

Vote: Boomfrog

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:27 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:PW was pretty obvious with who he was going to target. It's possible MPOLO switched her around, I'm not ruling that out.
You're forgetting about the Mason part. There will be a counterclaim if someone else was talking to PW.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:31 pm UTC

What's your read on Boomfrog, Sabrar?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:40 pm UTC

For real, have to sleep now. I'll be back later.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:04 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:What's your read on Boomfrog, Sabrar?
Did not forget, will get to it once I have more than 5 minutes to spend on the game.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby mpolo » Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:45 pm UTC

Time didn't come together as I had hoped, but reading the beginning of D3 has jogged a few things from memory:

I don't much like FrozenFlame at the moment (lynching lurkers is more important than lynching scum stands out here).

Zen seems to be all over the place. The idea of trying to quick-lynch Laser seems ill-advised (I'm reading him townie anyway), for instance, but other posts feel very townie. I'm going to have to try to read this slot in isolation.

BoomFrog often has these "cocky" type comments in his posts, so those are kind of a null-tell to me. I understand why EGW sees them as scummy though.

In my near-certain "town" group, I currently have EGW, Sabrar and bessie. LaserGuy is close to this -- he could have been messing with us because he was convinced he'd only live one day, but I don't think so. (This feeling that he was going to die is also why I didn't pay a whole lot of attention to future targets for his power, or even really think about how overpowered it would be as a multi-shot.)
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:30 pm UTC

Read BoomFrog's newest content. Didn't read EGW's case yet to remain unbiased.
Like: good question to Spak, this suggests he wasn't PR-hunting before.
Don't like: strong Town read on Gamma, defending Zen, too easy switch to Gamma (switching to Spak was fine as no lynch is worse)

Maintaining my scum-lean on him, will read EGW's case next.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:36 pm UTC

Good morning thread. I'm digging into the thread. I'm going to reply to direct questions as I find them instead of waiting to catch up. Plytho's opening analysis looks good and I agree with everything except the JimBob assumption (the assumption that the counter wagon must not be scum). If the scum team is composed of relatively passive players or Moody told them to let him go down by then, then the counter wagon could be town-led.

I may agree in the end but I need to do my own analysis of the D1 lynch wagons and how doomed Moody seemed when the JimBob wagon formed. Special now goes to Moody saying he'd be happy to switch to Red or Gamma but not JimBob.

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:You really think Spack is faking it? There's so many people I'd rather lynch.
Who in particular?

At the time, JimBob, LaserGuy or Red all had much better odds of being scum. Spak had volunteered to take the bomb and his "self hammer" seemed genuine.
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plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:06 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@EGW: why do you have bessie as only a slight town? Do you think she might be GF?


PW was pretty obvious with who he was going to target. It's possible MPOLO switched her around, I'm not ruling that out.
I think you can rule that out? We know mpolo switched amrock and Zen don't we? That's what mpolo claimed. It matches LaserGuy's claim of targeting Zen with his judgment and most importantly it matches amrock's claim of receiving the names Sabrar was trying to send to Zen. Amrock had no reason to lie there.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:09 pm UTC

Agree with this:
Spoiler:
Evil George Washington wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:Vote: Gamma

Two birds.

I'm skimming like crazy here. Can't post much. JimBob's probably scum, he's going for the easy lynch targets. (Gamma and Zen). Laser is maybe, I'd need to reread. I doubt Spak or Gamma are scum. EGW seems crazy, possible second team scum.

Should I switch with you? Quote me in your reply.


This sounds like he slipped about Spak's alignment here. He doesn't seem to remember his read on Spak, he clarifies with this:

@Zen: To clarify. I think Spack is more likely scum then gamma. I've read gammas claim and blow up and they feel townie. Why would lyncher claim so blatantly?

But I've likely missed key info, so in a few sentences can you convince me why I should switch?


Totally different phrasing then 'I doubt spak or gamm are scum'. I would understand if he typo'd with one word, but this is more than one word. You have to ask yourself why he would even think of doubting his spak read if he is voting there. I think it's because he really doesn't believe it.

BoomFrog wrote:You really think Spack is faking it? There's so many people I'd rather lynch. Sigh... we need the flip. I'm going hammer in few minutes unless I hear a good reason not to.

P edit. Fine.

Vote Spak


This sounds like a weak justification to switch wagons.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:11 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Is this a mason cop: http://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Communication_Cop

If so PW's town read on bessie could just be a town read. Hopefully the smashboards folk can help us identify the role's power as "communciation cop" and "alignment cop" are very different
A one shot communication cop seems like a weak power for this game. It also does not match with the stuff Peaceful Whale was claiming.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:20 pm UTC

EGW is starting to sound like Zen. Not a fan. Also disagree with some of his notions.

Too many egos flying around.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:44 pm UTC

plytho wrote: I didn’t forget about the prevote tally. This is the last one I could find. It has Red Ryu at 9, Gamma and moody at 7. It would have to be a very cautious team to bus moody based on that. Here are the votes at that point. 2 on Red Ryu, jimbob being one of them, 2 on moody and 3 on Gamma. EGW votes moody right after that. jimbob is next, making moody the lead wagon (and making Red Ryu less viable).

The case for jim being town based on his vote on moody is less strong than the case for Sabrar and EGW, but I still think it stands.
EGW was hard pushing moody. Sabrar was pushing moody. Boom had a 70% on moody. And I'm pretty sure moody surpassed Ruy in the prevote tally.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:Btw, this quote from Zen applies to Zen’s town read of Gamma as well.
No it doesn't. I never argued that gamma wasn't mafia because of his wagon, I argued that he wasn't mafia because of the way he was playing.
I’m referring to this quote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote: if gamma is not mafia, laser's reasoning here is classic mafia: get townie points for defending against the mislynch, then have an excuse to push everyone on the wagon. another multiple mislynch path. am i the only one that has gotten this vibe from the way laser has gone about this wagon?
Not the last part about the wagon, but the first part about getting townie points for defending against the mislynch and using that to push the next mislynch.
Except that doesn't make sense because I wasn't saying that people were scum pushing him. Laser was. I thought the push against him was perfectly acceptable and I never said otherwise. He just wasn't my personal choice. Laser was flat out setting up those pushing him.

This really feels like something scumbudLaser would ask you to say in order to get the heat off him.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:He still hasn’t clarified what his plan was with the jimbob wagon: serious attempt to lynch a serious read or a weak attempt to tempt scum.
A serious attempt to lynch someone I didn't expect people to lynch. If somehow my expectations were broken and people did want to lynch him, I totally would have continued it. It was also a serious attempt at creating a counter wagon to see how things developed. I'm not sure why you think these two had to be mutually exclusive. They weren't.
I guess this is sort of what I got from your initial defense. But BoomFrog’s interpretation that you were building a fake wagon to draw scum but were always going to lynch BoomFrog had me doubting that. I also expected a stronger result from you, in a sort of “here’s what I learned from my jimbob wagon” post.
What does what Boom Frog thinks have to do with me. Take it up with Boom Frog. This is atrocious. With the last line, I'm not sure why you're judging me based on how you go about things. I've never made a wagon analysis post in my life. And just because I play in a way as to put scum in unique situations, it doesn't mean I'm gonna get something out of everything. If you want me to look over the wagon again though, I do think it's interesting that you were trying to push a gamma lynch over moody & jim.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:Our interaction isn’t necessarily TvS.
I don't think that if bessie is town, then you have to be scum. I never said this. You just keep extrapolating stuff from my posts that I never had the intention of meaning. What I do think that it is likely that one of you is scum and that one of you is town. That doesn't mean that a town flip on you condemns bessie or that a town flip on bessie condemns you.
Umm
#HBC | Zyth wrote:I think I'm the only one that has bessie on suspect list, but I really feel strongly that bessie-plytho is TvS. I'm just not convinced that the S is plytho.
#HBC | Zyth wrote:The bolded here is also super weird! Please tell me you just missed the spoiler. Please, please, please. I really don't want you to be scum, cause I had this awesome case on bessie and now I'm going to have to burn it :(
I don’t think I’m extrapolating all that much. At the very least you said that if I was scum, bessie had to be town.
It's a one way street brother. Scum flip on one of you would certainly make me feel less suspicious about the other, but a town flip on one of you would NOT make me feel more suspicious.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:45 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I find it strange that if Zen didn't know how the pm received by her targets was worded then why she didn't ask for clarification from the mod. Also this probably can be resolved by last night's target if it becomes a corner issue.

What are you talking about. I know exactly how it's worded.

Thanks for the stat explanation.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:59 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Zen is null, I'm currently re-evaluating him right now.


How is Zen null? You were putting him as scum here and were prepared to vote him at the end of D2. What changed between then and now?

I'll try to post a more satisfactory answer about my read on Zen in a little while.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:04 pm UTC

@plytho:

plytho wrote:Your read on me and EGW is inconsistent with moody's flip. Or are you with bessie and Sabrar, thinking I'm an evil indie?


Funny, you keep mentioning this so I made a point of rereading you over the night.
It’s clear from your posting that you wanted to lynch Gamma on D1. Moody was 4th on your list. You didn’t attempt to push the moody lynch at all, just pushed against the jimbob lynch. Other than providing your vote, your contribution to the lynch isn’t really that noteworthy. Why do you feel that I should be giving you townie credit for this?

plytho wrote:Why are you still bringing up SirG? That is a terrible idea.


As should be abundantly clear by now, this was an excellent idea. The problem we had was not that nobody want to take the hit, but that too many people did. We had myself, Madge, PW, and mpolo all volunteer to take the bomb under no pressure, and both Town!Spak and Indie!Gamma were willing to go for it when put under pressure. We might have even been able to save Spak had we put a bit more thought into this. I am seriously baffled that you don’t see how this operation is, and always has been, massively pro-town. Especially compared to your alternative solution, to randomly have mpolo throw players at Amrock and hope that he catches a kill--a plan that scum could trivially circumvent by either killing mpolo or just targeting Amrock himself or, you know, if mpolo was scum. Funny that possibility never crossed your mind when you were putting this forward. Regardless, in the process, this would have created a huge amount of chaos among townie abilities.

I don’t like the interactions between plytho and FrozenFlame. Plytho is aggressively pushing Zyth for pushing on the jimbob wagon, but is makes excuses for Frozen despite him being in the same situation, blatantly misrepresenting my case on Frozen, and supposedly following his theories. Although actually, I have another problem with this point: In the linked post he claims that this theory was advanced by jimbob and FrozenFlame, but rereading both players, I really don’t see either making this connection.

@plytho: Can you point me to the specific post or posts where you got this idea from?
@plytho: What is your read on Zyth now that Gamma is out of the picture?

plytho wrote:Things I don't like about Zen:
-the late DH push (particularly this near lie)


Funny, since EGW was the one pushing that lynch, yet you haven’t mentioned this about him at all.

plytho wrote:-the late reads list that had been promised for days


But he did deliver reads eventually. What do you think of FrozenFlame who still hasn’t done a proper reads list at all yet?

plytho wrote:-the SirG lynch plan


As I said, this plan is townie as f---. There’s also an oddity here of you using this to scumread Zen, but not other players who also advanced this plan. Why weren’t you reading FrozenFlame as scummy for the same reason? Or me?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:23 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Furthermore, Laser, I don't see why you would drop your scum reads because no one was joining you. Why would you not try to get more out of your scum reads or push them further? You were changing your views to whatever was convenient.


I didn't drop my reads; I changed my vote when it was obvious that my preferred wagons weren't going anywhere. My scumreads have been pretty consistent since the middle of D2. I did changed my focus throughout the day from you to Frozen to plytho to EGW, but these were all scumreads at the time I was interested in them, with my general progression being starting from my strongest scumread and working my way up. But I can read the room well enough to know when I'm on a dead wagon, while a wagon that I really didn't care for was taking off. Spak was my third-strongest scumread, so I was okay voting him given both my reservations about the Gamma wagon and my relative confidence that the people pushing Spak were Town.

I'm not sure where you're getting that I was changing my views to whomever was convenient. If I had wanted an easy push, I could have just gone after Gamma.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:And I'm sorry, I don't see why someone who knew their own alignment would try and take the hit over someone who's alignment they didn't know in this case. mpolo was going to be the judgement hammerer, but you randomly decided to take the hit over him.


I didn't do it randomly. I had already indicated at the start of day that this was my intention. mpolo was a solid townread (especially in light of his willingness to take the hammer himself), so this wasn't exactly a hard decision.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:57 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:Furthermore, Laser, I don't see why you would drop your scum reads because no one was joining you. Why would you not try to get more out of your scum reads or push them further? You were changing your views to whatever was convenient.


I didn't drop my reads; I changed my vote when it was obvious that my preferred wagons weren't going anywhere. My scumreads have been pretty consistent since the middle of D2. I did changed my focus throughout the day from you to Frozen to plytho to EGW, but these were all scumreads at the time I was interested in them, with my general progression being starting from my strongest scumread and working my way up. But I can read the room well enough to know when I'm on a dead wagon, while a wagon that I really didn't care for was taking off. Spak was my third-strongest scumread, so I was okay voting him given both my reservations about the Gamma wagon and my relative confidence that the people pushing Spak were Town.

I'm not sure where you're getting that I was changing my views to whomever was convenient. If I had wanted an easy push, I could have just gone after Gamma.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:And I'm sorry, I don't see why someone who knew their own alignment would try and take the hit over someone who's alignment they didn't know in this case. mpolo was going to be the judgement hammerer, but you randomly decided to take the hit over him.


I didn't do it randomly. I had already indicated at the start of day that this was my intention. mpolo was a solid townread (especially in light of his willingness to take the hammer himself), so this wasn't exactly a hard decision.


It didn't seem like you really pushed them though. You hopped off of them pretty quickly. If you felt they weren't going anywhere, why not try to get them to go somewhere?

mpolo was town to you, but he wasn't solid town to everyone else. I'd argue that mpolo was more lynchable than you at the time. You would essentially be killing someone (yourself) that no one really found suspicious at the time in favor of someone that could potentially be mislynched (based on your solid town read).

Great points on plytho!

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:37 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Good morning thread. I'm digging into the thread. I'm going to reply to direct questions as I find them instead of waiting to catch up. Plytho's opening analysis looks good and I agree with everything except the JimBob assumption (the assumption that the counter wagon must not be scum). If the scum team is composed of relatively passive players or Moody told them to let him go down by then, then the counter wagon could be town-led.

I may agree in the end but I need to do my own analysis of the D1 lynch wagons and how doomed Moody seemed when the JimBob wagon formed. Special now goes to Moody saying he'd be happy to switch to Red or Gamma but not JimBob.

What are you trying to pull here, mister. This is blatant parroting of what I said.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:02 pm UTC

Zen (that's a confusing avatar):
Spoiler:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote: I didn’t forget about the prevote tally. This is the last one I could find. It has Red Ryu at 9, Gamma and moody at 7. It would have to be a very cautious team to bus moody based on that. Here are the votes at that point. 2 on Red Ryu, jimbob being one of them, 2 on moody and 3 on Gamma. EGW votes moody right after that. jimbob is next, making moody the lead wagon (and making Red Ryu less viable).

The case for jim being town based on his vote on moody is less strong than the case for Sabrar and EGW, but I still think it stands.
EGW was hard pushing moody. Sabrar was pushing moody. Boom had a 70% on moody. And I'm pretty sure moody surpassed Ruy in the prevote tally.
Yeah, but not at the point where jimbob is moving his vote to moody. Sure, it’s possible that jimbob is moody’s teammate. I rate the probability of that being the case very low and prefer to focus elsewhere.


#HBC | Zyth wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:Btw, this quote from Zen applies to Zen’s town read of Gamma as well.
No it doesn't. I never argued that gamma wasn't mafia because of his wagon, I argued that he wasn't mafia because of the way he was playing.
I’m referring to this quote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote: if gamma is not mafia, laser's reasoning here is classic mafia: get townie points for defending against the mislynch, then have an excuse to push everyone on the wagon. another multiple mislynch path. am i the only one that has gotten this vibe from the way laser has gone about this wagon?
Not the last part about the wagon, but the first part about getting townie points for defending against the mislynch and using that to push the next mislynch.
Except that doesn't make sense because I wasn't saying that people were scum pushing him. Laser was. I thought the push against him was perfectly acceptable and I never said otherwise. He just wasn't my personal choice. Laser was flat out setting up those pushing him.
You don’t have to explicitly say it before they’re lynched. You say they look townie beforehand and get townie points when they flip. That’s when you look at the wagon.
#HBC | Zyth wrote:This really feels like something scumbudLaser would ask you to say in order to get the heat off him.
This makes no sense. How does this get heat off Laser?

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:He still hasn’t clarified what his plan was with the jimbob wagon: serious attempt to lynch a serious read or a weak attempt to tempt scum.
A serious attempt to lynch someone I didn't expect people to lynch. If somehow my expectations were broken and people did want to lynch him, I totally would have continued it. It was also a serious attempt at creating a counter wagon to see how things developed. I'm not sure why you think these two had to be mutually exclusive. They weren't.
I guess this is sort of what I got from your initial defense. But BoomFrog’s interpretation that you were building a fake wagon to draw scum but were always going to lynch BoomFrog had me doubting that. I also expected a stronger result from you, in a sort of “here’s what I learned from my jimbob wagon” post.
What does what Boom Frog thinks have to do with me. Take it up with Boom Frog. This is atrocious. With the last line, I'm not sure why you're judging me based on how you go about things. I've never made a wagon analysis post in my life. And just because I play in a way as to put scum in unique situations, it doesn't mean I'm gonna get something out of everything. If you want me to look over the wagon again though, I do think it's interesting that you were trying to push a gamma lynch over moody & jim.
I felt BoomFrog’s points made sense and you didn’t address them. I wasn’t trying to push gamma over moody&jim. I was voting gamma over Red Ryu and moody and didn’t care that much about any of them. Then I pushed any of them against jimbob. It happened to be moody because of EGW and Sabrar

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:Our interaction isn’t necessarily TvS.
I don't think that if bessie is town, then you have to be scum. I never said this. You just keep extrapolating stuff from my posts that I never had the intention of meaning. What I do think that it is likely that one of you is scum and that one of you is town. That doesn't mean that a town flip on you condemns bessie or that a town flip on bessie condemns you.
Umm
#HBC | Zyth wrote:I think I'm the only one that has bessie on suspect list, but I really feel strongly that bessie-plytho is TvS. I'm just not convinced that the S is plytho.
#HBC | Zyth wrote:The bolded here is also super weird! Please tell me you just missed the spoiler. Please, please, please. I really don't want you to be scum, cause I had this awesome case on bessie and now I'm going to have to burn it :(
I don’t think I’m extrapolating all that much. At the very least you said that if I was scum, bessie had to be town.
It's a one way street brother. Scum flip on one of you would certainly make me feel less suspicious about the other, but a town flip on one of you would NOT make me feel more suspicious.
Ok, I understand now. Wasn’t all that clear from your posts.


LaserGuy
Spoiler:
LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:Your read on me and EGW is inconsistent with moody's flip. Or are you with bessie and Sabrar, thinking I'm an evil indie?


Funny, you keep mentioning this so I made a point of rereading you over the night.
It’s clear from your posting that you wanted to lynch Gamma on D1. Moody was 4th on your list. You didn’t attempt to push the moody lynch at all, just pushed against the jimbob lynch. Other than providing your vote, your contribution to the lynch isn’t really that noteworthy. Why do you feel that I should be giving you townie credit for this?


I keep mentioning it because you said I was “definitely not scum with moody” in one of your first reads lists. You’re right that my contribution to moody’s lynch wasn’t coming from a strong push to lynch moody. I was trying to counter Zen’s wagon on jimbob. I didn’t care which of moody, Gamma or Red Ryu would be lynched. I just really didn’t thrust Zen’s move. My vote for moody indicates that I had no problem voting for him.

It would be a very weird stance for me to take as scum on moody’s team. And one team is looking more and more likely.

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:Why are you still bringing up SirG? That is a terrible idea.


As should be abundantly clear by now, this was an excellent idea. The problem we had was not that nobody want to take the hit, but that too many people did. We had myself, Madge, PW, and mpolo all volunteer to take the bomb under no pressure, and both Town!Spak and Indie!Gamma were willing to go for it when put under pressure. We might have even been able to save Spak had we put a bit more thought into this. I am seriously baffled that you don’t see how this operation is, and always has been, massively pro-town. Especially compared to your alternative solution, to randomly have mpolo throw players at Amrock and hope that he catches a kill--a plan that scum could trivially circumvent by either killing mpolo or just targeting Amrock himself or, you know, if mpolo was scum. Funny that possibility never crossed your mind when you were putting this forward. Regardless, in the process, this would have created a huge amount of chaos among townie abilities.


First: that quote was a response to Red Ryu, very late into D1. I think at that point it was already moody vs jimbob. So at that point it really was a terrible idea.

I wasn’t against the plan (townie sacrifice to trigger GLaDOS) itself. I was against
1) the people trying to sell it as a way to get rid of scum
2) the people trying to make a quick push on this
3) the people thinking we’d get quick consensus on ‘the most scummy player’

1: because scum (or at least mafia, I was surprised Spak helped tow there) was never going to be the hammer
2: because moving the required amount of votes to the secondary lynch target when scum bails takes time and coordination.
3: because getting that consensus takes a long time.

If the redirecting didn’t work there was always going to be a townie sacrifice, that was clear, pretending it could be scum sacrifice or it would be easy was suspicious to me.

The judgement took away the time pressure, making the whole thing a lot easier to accomplish. The logistics of hammering GLaDOS with the judgement are different than they are with a regular lynch.

I was aware that mpolo could be scum but he’d out himself by picking bad targets.

LaserGuy wrote:I don’t like the interactions between plytho and FrozenFlame. Plytho is aggressively pushing Zyth for pushing on the jimbob wagon, but is makes excuses for Frozen despite him being in the same situation,


Frozen is not in the same situation as Zen on the jimbob wagon. The reason I opposed Zen on the jimbob wagon is because his push seemed to come out of nowhere and I felt he was acting against town by pushing a weak wagon late D1. Frozen was voting jimbob at that point and without Zen’s push I assume he’d vote for one of the other three wagons.
LaserGuy wrote:blatantly misrepresenting my case on Frozen, and supposedly
I already admitted that was a weaker point
LaserGuy wrote:following his theories. Although actually, I have another problem with this point: In the linked post he claims that this theory was advanced by jimbob and FrozenFlame, but rereading both players, I really don’t see either making this connection.

@plytho: Can you point me to the specific post or posts where you got this idea from?

Probably this post from Frozen where he points out connections between moody-Gamma and moody-Zen:
viewtopic.php?p=4248826#p4248826
And this post from jimbob:
viewtopic.php?p=4249191#p4249191
LaserGuy wrote:@plytho: What is your read on Zyth now that Gamma is out of the picture?
I still don’t trust him. He’s manipulative and ambiguous. Loads of what he posts is solid but I don’t feel like I can trust him on anything.

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:Things I don't like about Zen:
-the late DH push (particularly this near lie)


Funny, since EGW was the one pushing that lynch, yet you haven’t mentioned this about him at all.


My problem with Zen’s push on Dark Horse, like Zen’s push on jimbob is that it was late. I also disliked his arguments: using the rules (incorrectly) to make DH seem scarier than he was.
The fact that EGW pushed DH days earlier didn’t bother me, at that point DH was an ok lynch candidate.

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:-the late reads list that had been promised for days


But he did deliver reads eventually. What do you think of FrozenFlame who still hasn’t done a proper reads list at all yet?
I don’t like that FrozenFlame hasn’t done a proper reads list yet. He’s one of my lynchables.

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:-the SirG lynch plan


As I said, this plan is townie as f---. There’s also an oddity here of you using this to scumread Zen, but not other players who also advanced this plan. Why weren’t you reading FrozenFlame as scummy for the same reason? Or me?



I’ve always said that liking the plan doesn’t necessarily make one scummy but being scum makes one like the plan. So when I make a case (like I did on Zen) I can take it into account. This is a small piece of the puzzle, it’s not the cornerstone of my read. If I make a case on Sabrar, BoomFrog, or FrozenFlame I might include that bit. Reading Gamma as town is a similar thing. I could very well be scum, trying to score townie points by town reading someone playing scummy. It could also be town being wrong.

You weren’t one of the early pushers of the SirG plan and you never pretended we could hit scum with it or we could do it in a hurry that’s why I’m not reading you as scummy for it.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:03 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:It didn't seem like you really pushed them though. You hopped off of them pretty quickly. If you felt they weren't going anywhere, why not try to get them to go somewhere?


On you: I've explained my progression on you already in some detail.
On Frozen: Started my push here and here. He never responded to my last comment on him, and went V/LA for the weekend. By the time he got back, the day was over. I will come back to him once he turns up today.
On plytho: I was arguing with him off-and-on for most of the day, and he's actually been one of my most consistent scumreads. I pushed at him most notably here and here. If you'll recall, I also did try to recruit you, BoomFrog, and Gamma, who were also reading plytho as scummy (and I was reading as townie) to help me push this wagon, but you all demurred for one reason or another.
On EGW: Focus of most of my end-of-day content. Will be picking this up shortly.

Also, while I realize you don't really subscribe to this, I do find it very helpful for me personally to scumhunt by following connections between players. So even while FrozenFlame was V/LA and I couldn't really push him, one of the things I was pushing EGW and plytho about was their interactions/reads of FrozenFlame.

I don't really understand what you're expecting from me here.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:mpolo was town to you, but he wasn't solid town to everyone else. I'd argue that mpolo was more lynchable than you at the time. You would essentially be killing someone (yourself) that no one really found suspicious at the time in favor of someone that could potentially be mislynched (based on your solid town read).


Other than FrozenFlame's early vote that was quickly retracted, I don't recall anyone being particularly troubled with the slot. mpolo was fairly consistently ~4th towniest on most people's lists, and several people have pretty strong townreads on him. I didn't see any risk of him being mislynched any time soon (nightkill was a possibility, though I'd have been very surprised), though admittedly, I mostly based my decision off of my own read.

[edit]Ninja by plytho, will have a look later.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:04 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:EGW is starting to sound like Zen. Not a fan. Also disagree with some of his notions.

Too many egos flying around.


I'm confused. How am I sounding like Zen? Why is that something to be not a fan of? What do you disagree with and why?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:05 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I'll try to post a more satisfactory answer about my read on Zen in a little while.


I want this answer now, actually. You have delayed it for quite some time.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:06 pm UTC

It's been over 24 hours since D3 started and we haven't heard from Red Ryu, Yolinda or FrozenFlame.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:28 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:I'm confused. How am I sounding like Zen?
You are interpreting some of BoomFrog's comment by simultaneously assigning him a specific mindset.

Evil George Washington wrote:Why is that something to be not a fan of?
It's narrow-minded.

Evil George Washington wrote:What do you disagree with and why?
- mpolo already talked about his tone. It is the same kind of bravado that Zen opened with, just more apparent that it is meant as a joke. If you still don't understand why BoomFrog would give mpolo townie points then I can only say that you haven't made the effort to understand. Although I think BoomFrog should have learned from Shakespeare not to do that.
- as noted I think his switch to Spak was fine given the circumstances.
- the question to Spak is what I'm referring to in the above. I think that question was very good and I don't understand why you would assume that he already had an answer in mind.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:34 pm UTC

@EGW: plytho also made a good point why mpolo couldn't have redirected PW. Why are you adamant about bessie not being confirmed Town?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:39 pm UTC

He gave a good point, Amrock did mention receiving names. I'll consider Bessie likely confirmed town now, and therefore will drop this.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:39 pm UTC

Sabrar: What's your read on LaserGuy?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:42 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Sabrar: What's your read on LaserGuy?
Please refer to this. I think his actions likely make him Town though I find some of his reads incredibly wrong.


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