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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:38 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Oh? So technically bessie could have been GF?

Why is Bessie being Secret Godfather make more sense then Bessie lied about how PW's power works?

Because I think it's clear from PW's D1 content that we already know how his power worked.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:42 pm UTC

I do not have any night results.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:46 pm UTC

BoomFrog, anything to claim?
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:47 pm UTC

Did nothing, nothing happened to me.
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:52 pm UTC

So who did EGW send the message? Madge???

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:56 pm UTC

He claims he targeted LaserGuy.
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:02 pm UTC

So someone in {EGW, LaserGuy, mpolo, Ryu} is lying, unless scum has a second roleblock or a redirection of their own. I think the latter is unlikely.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:08 pm UTC

Two main conflicts:

1 EGW’s telepathy and mpolo’s power

EGW claims he targeted LaserGuy with his telepathy
Mpolo claims he bussed LaserGuy and Red Ryu
LaserGuy claims nothing received
Red Ryu claims nothing received

One of these must be lying scum, unless EGW was roleblocked.

2 bessie died and was scum

No claimed townie action explains bessie’s death (unless EGW didn’t tell me in chat). This implies there’s a second scum team that performed the kill.

How did they do it?

-Red Ryu is scum so scum knew he wouldn’t ‘protect’ bessie, targets Sabrar with his note. This makes Red look very suspicious

-Sabrar is scum and Red Ryu was roleblocked so bessie could safely be targeted and Sabrar could claim he got the note (risking contradiction with Red, who may have targeted bessie)

-mpolo is scum and switched bessie with someone else (LaserGuy?), risking a protective note arriving at someone else and EGW’s note arriving at the wrong person.

-something else?

Second question: why bessie? Why not target someone unprotected, like mpolo, EGW, BoomFrog or me?

Other thoughts:
I told my chatmates I expected one of me, EGW or mpolo to be killed. Particularly mpolo. The fact that he wasn’t targeted makes me suspicious of him.

I’m also suspicious of EGW for his last minute switching of the night plan to me targeting BoomFrog instead of bessie. (Which I refused for all the retrospectively wrong reasons.)
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:21 pm UTC

plytho wrote:No claimed townie action explains bessie’s death (unless EGW didn’t tell me in chat).
How would EGW's unclaimed action explain bessie's death?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:25 pm UTC

Why are you referring to his claimed possible actions when I'm talking about an unclaimed action?

I'm keeping the (low probability) possibility open that EGW did not mention something that can explain why bessie died without a second scum team performing that kill.
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:27 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Why are you referring to his claimed possible actions when I'm talking about an unclaimed action?
Because I don't want the guy who makes the plan and decides the claim-order lie about his own ability.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:57 pm UTC

I sent the message to Laser. Plytho and Laser knew this last night. I suspect Ryu. When I get home from work I will go in depth.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:18 pm UTC

Ryu being scum explains both bessie's lack of protection and the no message.
mpolo being scum also explains both things (switching LaserGuy with bessie instead of Ryu)
EGW or LaserGuy being scum does not explain why bessie wasn't saved but scum might not have been bothered by protection (e.g. they have Strongman).

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:00 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:[A]Ryu being scum explains both bessie's lack of protection and the no message.
[B]mpolo being scum also explains both things (switching LaserGuy with bessie instead of Ryu)
[C]EGW or [D]LaserGuy being scum does not explain why bessie wasn't saved but scum might not have been bothered by protection (e.g. they have Strongman).

A) Why would scum!Ryu lie about not receiving the telepathy message? It brings more heat to him then EGW and no benifit.
B) This also requires that mpolo is not in Bessie's scum team. And he is taking a big risk since he didn't know who would be telepathied. Still, it's possible.
C) Why would scum!EGW agree to send telepathy but not do it? Possible if it's LYLO and he's trying to leverage his cred into a final misslynch, but it seems unnecessarily risky unless he is protecting his scum mates who are likely lynches without this conflict.
D) Scum!LaserGuy cannot explain this conflict by itself. Why bring him up?
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:07 pm UTC

A) to make us suspect mpolo.
B) he had the option to claim doing nothing (50% chance) or switching Ryu+Madge (25% chance). By the time he made his claim he could have derived from Ryu not mentioning the message that it was sent to LaserGuy, therefore no risk claiming his action the way he did.
C) to make us suspect Ryu/LaserGuy/mpolo.
D) sake of completeness. Why shouldn't I have mentioned him?

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:12 pm UTC

Do you find all 4 possibilities implausible? What do you think happened?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:46 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:B) he had the option to claim doing nothing (50% chance) or switching Ryu+Madge (25% chance). By the time he made his claim he could have derived from Ryu not mentioning the message that it was sent to LaserGuy, therefore no risk claiming his action the way he did.


Neither claim solves the problem of the missing message though. FWIW, EGW claimed he sent the note to me in chat before the flip.

I can't think of a scenario here that allows for only one scum team. Scum!mpolo wanting to kill mafia!bessie is possible, where swapping me/bessie would prevent her protection (if available) though if I ended up with the doctor's note it would look pretty bad. Alternately scum!RR knows mafia!bessie won't be protected, and lies about receiving the telepathy.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:20 pm UTC

@Sabrar: I find all possibilities I can think of involve someone lying for high risk and little gain. They are all possible, but yes, they all imply... mmm, not to be mean, but they imply scum who embrace risky plays. Which I probably fits Red, and possibly Laser, or EGW.

Basically, none of those scenarios seem like a good idea from the perspective of scum, but obviously one of them happened or something even more bizarre.
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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:49 am UTC

In Time Travellers, July was town. Yet, she flipped mafia. What happened was mafia targetted her and Yakked her ahead of time, in night 0. It takes a while to take affect. So July towns it up, and then randomly, is vigged, and flips at night. Then everybody goes "I knew it!" when really they were paranoid of her playing them....

Wait. Actually my theory doesn't make sense. I was going to say that maybe HA targetted Bessie, but that would mean their own scumteam would know she was already mafia and would not target her. Maybe we are looking for an SK, or a second team.

So in the end I actually don't really have a good idea of what happened.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:55 am UTC

One simple explanation is that it would be very risky to target Bessie if Ryu was supposedly protecting her (%50 chance). It's also odd that Ryu does not confirm my message. Considering that Boom got a result from Ryu that he did not visit, I feel it adds up to him being scum.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:03 am UTC

I can see the possibility of two teams. I know I was in a rajam game with indy scum and mafia scum. Also note it's possible the secondary team may have poison, which is slow acting kills. I really don't know.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:05 am UTC

plytho wrote:Second question: why bessie? Why not target someone unprotected, like mpolo, EGW, BoomFrog or me?)


Possibly due to her semi town confirmation. Which requires two scum teams, or an SK. There's no other explanation, and if MPOLO was scum he would use that to his advantage. (scum but not with Bessie or didn't know she was scum)

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:07 am UTC

It has to be an independent because the action being used on Bessie is one no one wants to claim. (Or secondary scum team with nerfed killing power or x-shot)

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:18 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Pretending that he somehow faked a result on bessie is also ridiculous.


Newbies do that. Players in general do that. His result on Bessie was vague. I think the safest action would be for scum to roleblock him N1, while keeping him alive. All those posts explains that he can check to see whether someone is scum or not, nothing more. We don't actually know what he did exactly.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:27 am UTC

Sabrar:

On rushing: We don't need to wait to the very last minute of deadline. All we need is everyone's input on the matter and reads, and then we can end the day. D3 I did not want to go towards Jim, I was only joining to avoid no lynch. Plus Red Ryu / Boom were not budging. Plus there was extended twilight, we had plenty of time to discuss so I was fine ending it little earlier knowing that it'll take a while to even see a flip.

On Dying: I was fine with dying. I was also running out of options, in every case there would be a chance someone dying. I noted that you didn't seem to care if I was dying though. Why was this?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:35 am UTC

plytho wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:
plytho wrote:I'm right btw, Sabrar deflecting to bessie does make sense.


Well he deflected to Madge. I'm not sure why you were so confident with that.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:42 am UTC

Although also consider. Bessie was the only kill. If she had a kill, one of Red Ryu or Laser should have died. It's possible she didn't have one. In fact, that might have been the gimmick. Her team, has mafia-set-up know it all, a mafia role blocking possessor, and a role that can cause votes to be permanent (which she could use LYLO without saying a thing)

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:45 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
plytho wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:
plytho wrote:I'm right btw, Sabrar deflecting to bessie does make sense.


Well he deflected to Madge. I'm not sure why you were so confident with that.

Plytho means it's plausible, not that it's likely.

@Sabrar and plytho's imagination of Sabrar: Why not deflect towards a scum read of yours? Especially since we have even numbers and can afford a missed Vig shot?
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:51 am UTC

Also to note that Plytho has a big problem with recruiting you. Then he used his action without confirming with myself or Laser. (He asked way too late)

Boom: What do you think of Plytho's opening of this day? Does town!plytho come off that way?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:03 am UTC

Bessie's power is surprisingly weak compared to what is implied by the other two mafia rolenames. It's possible the was also secretly GF or "decision maker" did more then what she said it did, but she still felt it was difficult to fake claim something else so never used it.

Considering that flip alteration is fair game a one shot power that makes the target flip mafia is plausible, but if I was Mafia I'd have used it on Frozen flame or Spak or JimBob long before using it on Bessie. If it only worked on the NK target then waiting until now is possible, you wouldn't want to try and flip a mafia cop when killing PW or Zen. This is getting way out into assumption land though.

Two scum teams makes sense but alternating kills does not. Bessie had incentive to kill PW, but that was an even night kill. Other scum team would have likely killed a better target. Large mafia with no kill and SK is an interesting possibility, or medium size team with good powers vs small team with a kill. Still seems tough on the mafia and other scum team. If Bessie is really mafia I expect her team doesn't have a kill and still has one or two more members. This would also help explain the lack of pattern in my conflict analysis.

None of that explains the disregard for Red's potential protection or for the missing message. One of Red and mpolo is other-scum, or there are a lot of weird hidden powers still going on. If mpolo is scum, he's on a team with a good coach, likely Sabrar. If Red is scum he's likely with another "risk taking" player, likely LaserGuy. I'm leaning towards the "Red is a forger" theory since that fits with the fake mafia flip on Bessie theory.
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:17 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
Sabrar wrote:B) he had the option to claim doing nothing (50% chance) or switching Ryu+Madge (25% chance). By the time he made his claim he could have derived from Ryu not mentioning the message that it was sent to LaserGuy, therefore no risk claiming his action the way he did.

Neither claim solves the problem of the missing message though. FWIW, EGW claimed he sent the note to me in chat before the flip.
Not sure what you mean here. mpolo switching you and bessie explains the missing note, him having the option to claim otherwise if necessary isn't relevant.

LaserGuy wrote:Scum!mpolo wanting to kill mafia!bessie is possible, where swapping me/bessie would prevent her protection (if available) though if I ended up with the doctor's note it would look pretty bad.
True but he could have claimed that Ryu specifically targeted you to make us think mpolo was scum.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:24 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:His result on Bessie was vague.
No it wasn't.

Evil George Washington wrote:All those posts explains that he can check to see whether someone is scum or not, nothing more.
First post shows that he can't be standard Cop as he didn't use ability N0. Second post shows he is not a Mason yet with bessie. Third post shows that he has a way of proving himself as Town and it involves targeting someone else. Fourth post shows what you said.
Put them all together and it's clear that bessie claimed the ability truthfully.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:29 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:No it wasn't.


Did he directly state it?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:34 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:We don't need to wait to the very last minute of deadline. All we need is everyone's input on the matter and reads, and then we can end the day.
But ending the day early deprives us of some of those reads. If you do not hammer D2 early then FrozenFlame comes online to give his reads in time for them to have a meaning and we might not have lynched him yesterday.
Evil George Washington wrote:(D3) Plus there was extended twilight, we had plenty of time to discuss so I was fine ending it little earlier knowing that it'll take a while to even see a flip.
How in hell would you know that? YOLO didn't post anything between the start and end of D3.

Evil George Washington wrote:I noted that you didn't seem to care if I was dying though. Why was this?
I thought it was deliberate and you wanted to attract the NK for some undisclosed reason (like you claimed being untargettable N1 on D2 for similarly unexplained reason).

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:35 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
Sabrar wrote:No it wasn't.

Did he directly state it?

I take this as such.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:38 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@Sabrar and plytho's imagination of Sabrar: Why not deflect towards a scum read of yours? Especially since we have even numbers and can afford a missed Vig shot?
If I were 100% sure in my reads I would have done that. However precisely because we have even numbers if I can prevent the NK by deflecting it someone who is protected then it would have given us another chance to lynch correctly.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:40 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Considering that flip alteration is fair game
Is it? That's totally bastard territory. Can you show a previous OS game where this happened?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:44 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:But ending the day early deprives us of some of those reads. If you do not hammer D2 early then FrozenFlame comes online to give his reads in time for them to have a meaning and we might not have lynched him yesterday.
Evil George Washington wrote:(D3) Plus there was extended twilight, we had plenty of time to discuss so I was fine ending it little earlier knowing that it'll take a while to even see a flip.
How in hell would you know that? YOLO didn't post anything between the start and end of D3.


1. No it doesn't. An hour until is negligible. I would agree with you if there were people that have yet to respond or talk or contribute at that point. Plus he gave his full reads list, so I don't see why you include that there.

2. I knew that after he explained that Rajam had to bounce and he was doing this himself, and it has been consistently being slow? (Which I forgive him for, things are busy for him and I respect his commitment to this game)

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:44 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Is it? That's totally bastard territory. Can you show a previous OS game where this happened?


I said above it's possible since OS had a Mafia Yak. So yes. Time Travellers.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:46 am UTC

Otherwise what do you think a Mafia RB possessor does exactly.


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