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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:19 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Mpolo is also an option for how, but only in cooperation with EGW who sent his note directly to Red while mpolo switched bessie and [x], while [x] was targeted with the kill. (EGW could also have sent his note to bessie, with [x] being Red) This has the risk of Red’s protective note ending up in the wrong place so this is a low probablility scenario.


What if scum!mpolo swapped scum!EGW and bessie, with the kill targeted at EGW, and the telepathy went directly to RR?

Case 1: RR targets Sabrar with protection. Sabrar gets protected. bessie is killed. RR gets the note. This is the result we have.
Case 2: RR targets bessie with protection. bessie's protection redirected to EGW. Kill is redirected to bessie. EGW does not claim the doctor's note. RR receives the telepathy. RR looks suspicious because the person he claimed to protect has died and doctor's note is lost. EGW and mpolo both cover their tracks. At least up until EGW flips, whereupon the doctor's note would be revealed.

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BoomFrog
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:27 pm UTC

@LaserGuy: That would tie mpolo to EGW, if EGW died then mpolo would be proven scum.

We know Overswarm makes weird roles. Almost everyone has had a very weird role. Straight up doctor doesn't fit the rest of the setup. Leaving notes isn't much of a drawback.

Your theory is that the second team is evading all notice, but it's also possible that the second team is simply very small. The weird kill targets could be because SK didn't want to kill mafia, to keep them as a distraction. Maybe the SK thinks EGW could be mafia and Bessie was a sure thing townie.

I'm guessing the setup was 13-4-1-1-1 . Mafia have no kill but have a recruit. Red might actually be a real Mafia doctor in that case. Maybe SK had one shot strongman and decided to use it last night.

Which means Red is Mafia with one more partner and kill-less. Presumably Mafia inherits a kill if SK dies though so we still need to lynch Red, his partner and find the SK. I don't think it's technically MYLO, but I do think we need to lynch correctly three times in a row or get lucky and the SK kills mafia again. We haven't been lynching very well so I can't imagine there are only 2 scum left.
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BoomFrog
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:28 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:
My guess, Madge, Boom or Laser is a strongman. In terms of the most likely between them, Boom since his result makes zero sense with my own results. Only thing with me and Boom is if the Mod decided to make me not visit as a doctor which makes zero sense.

Why is Yolinda RBing me not plausible?
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:58 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:
My guess, Madge, Boom or Laser is a strongman. In terms of the most likely between them, Boom since his result makes zero sense with my own results. Only thing with me and Boom is if the Mod decided to make me not visit as a doctor which makes zero sense.

Why is Yolinda RBing me not plausible?


Because Yolinda died via mod kill so them taking actions is less likely.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:31 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@LaserGuy: That would tie mpolo to EGW, if EGW died then mpolo would be proven scum.


True, but how would EGW die? He's not going to be killed by his own teammates and has been consistently been read as town (as had mpolo). Following this path sets up a likely mislynch on RR, and, assuming we aren't at MYLO already, we almost certainly will be after another failed lynch. And while I agree that this ties mpolo to EGW, it doesn't link either player directly to the kill. The proposal that EGW is floating is that scum!RR had bessie killed in a way that very publicly links him to the kill, which seems somewhat less plausible.

BoomFrog wrote:We know Overswarm makes weird roles. Almost everyone has had a very weird role. Straight up doctor doesn't fit the rest of the setup. Leaving notes isn't much of a drawback.


Most of the roles have been variations on fairly standard roles. There's a few that I would put in the "very weird" category (e.g. Madge), but not a whole lot of them. On the other end of the spectrum, mpolo is claiming a standard bus driver with no variation whatsoever.

BoomFrog wrote:Your theory is that the second team is evading all notice, but it's also possible that the second team is simply very small. The weird kill targets could be because SK didn't want to kill mafia, to keep them as a distraction. Maybe the SK thinks EGW could be mafia and Bessie was a sure thing townie.


Which kills in particular do you find weird?

BoomFrog wrote:I'm guessing the setup was 13-4-1-1-1 . Mafia have no kill but have a recruit. Red might actually be a real Mafia doctor in that case. Maybe SK had one shot strongman and decided to use it last night.

How do you get from here

Which means Red is Mafia

to here?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:11 pm UTC

I think Red is mafia. I think he may be a forger or may be an actual Mafia doctor. The SK using strongman to set him up doesn't mean he's not actually Mafia.

The PW kill was weird because it was strongly hinted his power was one shot so why not kill Bessie first. Killing Bessie was weird (in that it ignored likely doctor). Mavin makes sense from standard scum perspective, and Zen makes sense from standard scum motives.

That's interesting... the killing faction cared about the "comparison cop"... That messes up my theory unless the SK was worried they would be checked soon. Possible since Zen said her results were recorded immediately.
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:19 pm UTC

Setup speculation
Spoiler:
Assumptions:
- bessie was recruited (shown before that she was Copped as Town N1, most likely wasn't GF)
- we started either with 13 or 14 townies (12 is too few if scum has recruit, 15 does not explain the 2 teams unless 15-2-1-1-1)
- there is another anti-town faction than has already been revealed, could be solo-indie (killing bessie does not make sense otherwise)
- one of the factions does not have NK or they have alternating kills (unlikely that we can dodge 4 NK's in a row, N1 could be explained due to both EGW and myself being immune but otherwise we only had Ryu presumably)
- Ryu wouldn't kill bessie (it implicates him too much and no matter who his buddies are there was certainly a better target)

We have either 2 or 3 scum remaining. Assume 2.
1. 14-3-1-1-1 We have SK (presumably has a ton of protection and can't be LaserGuy as power is too risky) plus an original member of moody's team. This is possible. Ryu can't be SK, could still be scum but that is independent from the NK (where SK clearly wanted us to 'mislynch' him).
2. 14-2-2-1-1 We have a 2-man scum-team left with the NK. Unlikely. As mentioned before I think 2 is not enough in a 20 player game with so many traps. Random chance could screw a team over. moody + h_a makes sense as former had Wraith, latter had Possessor so they had built-in survivability. I don't think however that OS would duplicate roles entirely so the other team must have less protection (especially because they have the NK. Alternating kill does not make sense here as that leaves second team too weak.

Assume 3 scum remaining:
1. 13-4-1-1-1 We have SK plus 2 original members of moody's team. Possible.
2. 13-3-2-1-1 We have a 3-man scum-team remaining. Ryu is Town. Alternating kills would mean no NK tonight but we can't count on that.
3. 13-3-2-1-1 We have a 2-man scum-team with the NK and an original member of moody's team. Unlikely as explained before.

PS1: Assume bessie was GF -> LaserGuy is lying and is on their team. Defends Ryu hard -> most likely Ryu is scum as well. Means 13-4-1-1-1
PS2: Assume setup was 15-2-1-1-1 -> 1 scum left, SK with ton of protection, not LaserGuy. BoomFrog doesn't make sense because he intentionally contradicted Ryu. Not Ryu as above. Probably SK got lucky and blocked BoomFrog N2.
PS3: Mafia Doctor could make sense given possible multiple Vig-s, needs to be on the non-killing side however due to balance reasons plus above.

Conclusions:
- I think alternating kills is less likely, I don't see the 2 teams being balanced that way. Especially because both teams would be interested in keeping the other team alive to reduce the number of townies.
- I don't think a 2-man scum-team with the NK would be balanced.
- SK needs to be Bullet-proof to have a chance. Plus he has Strong-man (possibly 1- or 2-shot). In that case having a Doctor is perfectly reasonable.
- SK is unlikely to be BoomFrog, LaserGuy or Ryu. Can't be Madge because she wasn't coached. Could be EGW (has immmunity, roleblock, note-sending to help false-claim), mpolo (bus-driver great for causing confusion), plytho (this is a stretch but would explain my and probably town!bessie's original read on him).
- Ryu being Doctor makes most sense if we have a 3-man scum-team remaining. We can't count 100% on mpolo's redirection or EGW's immunity on being Town, Spak was 1-shot and FrozenFlame could only protect himself. Giving scum a 1- or 2-shot Strongman is very plausible here.
- With that said I think I talked myself into an SK-scenario. Could be just because I'm bad at discovering connections though.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:35 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I'm leaning towards the "Red is a forger" theory since that fits with the fake mafia flip on Bessie theory.
Have you reevaluated this in light of your wrong assumption about flip altering?

BoomFrog wrote:The kill choices have been very odd all game which makes me hesitant to read into them too deeply.
How can you say this when you use it to implicate Ryu here? Also where does your read on Ryu liking riskier plays come from?

BoomFrog wrote:Sabrar is still scum lean but less confident with recent events. Still second or third scummiest though by PoE.
How does your PoE work?

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:48 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I think Red is mafia. I think he may be a forger or may be an actual Mafia doctor. The SK using strongman to set him up doesn't mean he's not actually Mafia.


What has changed since here and here and now that has made you so drastically re-evaluate your read?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:00 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I think Red is mafia. I think he may be a forger or may be an actual Mafia doctor. The SK using strongman to set him up doesn't mean he's not actually Mafia.


What has changed since here and here and now that has made you so drastically re-evaluate your read?

Two scum teams, with the smaller having kills opens the door for actual Mafia doctor. The bastard win condition in the Sorcereress role EGW linked opens the door for note forger (ninja or otherwise). Sabrar makes a good point that I was influenced by the Fake-Bessie-flip theory so I should take away that evidence for forger. Still, there are several ways Red could be Mafia.

On the conflict analysis, I didn't even include Bessie in it because I assumed she was town. That means there are only one or zero Mafia-mates of mafia!Red so the lack of anyone fighting his lynch makes more sense now as well.

Taking away those factors in judging him on tone and actions and neither have been townie.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:39 pm UTC

Why do you suppose scum!doctor!Ryu would protect Sabrar over bessie last night?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:49 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Why do you suppose scum!doctor!Ryu would protect Sabrar over bessie last night?

That is a very good point. That would require Sabrar is also Mafia which seems to be contorting the data to fit the theory.

I think I need to reread D4 Bessie.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:32 pm UTC

Nothing much besides she was pushing me and Madge, and accepted Red's claim easily. But I agree, Red not defending Bessie when given the chance means he's almost certainly not Mafia. Unless Sabrar+Madge are a kill team, I'm also very comfortable with Madge as town. It'd be nice to confirm that Madge is really jailed, but since plytho's ability ignores untargetable I can't think of how to test it.
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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:38 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:2. 14-2-2-1-1 We have a 2-man scum-team left with the NK. Unlikely. As mentioned before I think 2 is not enough in a 20 player game with so many traps. Random chance could screw a team over. moody + h_a makes sense as former had Wraith, latter had Possessor so they had built-in survivability. I don't think however that OS would duplicate roles entirely so the other team must have less protection (especially because they have the NK. Alternating kill does not make sense here as that leaves second team too weak.


This is what I think it is. Why don't you think he would duplicate them? Red Ryu's role is very powerful.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:43 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@EGW: what is a secondary ability? Presumably that does not include a kill. In what way could your roleblock be useful? You said you were saving it. Saving it to do what?


It would block a player's passive if they have one, for that night and the next day. I wanted to save it because it would be un-wise to use it willy nilly without information in the earlier days. I'd rather save it for later days when we can narrow down options and force suspicious players to have no option. I think it was smart for me to save my abilities as I was able to confirm that MPOLO switched targets with the message I sent to Laser. (I have the Passive roleblock left)

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:50 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:so it's my fault I followed the exact instructions you provided for me to protect on of Sabrar or Bessie? What?


Put simply, it's either:

1.) You are associated with whoever killed Bessie
2.) Scum has strong man and did not care about you protecting Sabrar/Bessie
3.) Scum took a giant risk and guessed correctly that you weren't protecting Bessie and targeted them.

I think it's the first option. Also since Boom's result on you also makes it likely you aren't actually a doctor.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:01 am UTC

plytho wrote:How would that possessor work? It would have to be a passive ability, targeting a random townie? Or are we supposing Yolinda chose bessie as his target N2, to be possessed if he died D3?


If it's similar to the Sorceress role (which states he also possesses), it would be an ability you can use since N0. You pick your target, and then when you die, if that target is town, they will take your place. Note that Yolinda, had not even tried to play. He was on his own, and did not care to play any further. He's a good scum player, so there is no reason for him to actually need to lurk out. I would say he's equal skill to me or better than myself.

I didn't really consider alternating kills yet. I'm not that sure about it. On thinking it's not 3-man, I feel it's more likely scum was by themselves which is why Yolinda lurked out. He had no team to care for to survive. When you have no one to keep you accountable, it's easy to just give up.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:16 am UTC

mpolo wrote:LaserGuy earlier analyzed who used what power on what night. This makes an EGW-plytho team at least plausible (with plytho having carried out the kill rather than actually inviting bessie to chat). This is assuming that scum can't use their main power while carrying out the kill, which is also only an assumption. I need to read the more detailed case against EGW.

I've been reading EGW and Sabrar both as townie for almost the whole game, but in the forest of null-reads that I have at the moment, I have to question this assumption. Sabrar, of course, as unopposed MegaMan claim, seems pretty clearly townie, unless the setup is _really: messing with us. (Like the game where the mason recruiter was the big bad -- Gargoyles, I think.)


Can you go into why you have null-reads? I also want to see a full reads list from you.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:21 am UTC

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:And I insist that his last minute switch of the night plan (after my bedtime) felt very weird. "Bessie didn't want to join chat" is just wrong and it's not like BoomFrog was in any way vocal about wanting to join chat. I can understand that EGW, who town read BoomFrog, might want him in chat. But EGW thinking I'd just go along with that plan makes little sense, as BoomFrog himself pointed out. I've shown myself to be quite stubborn, so my resistance should come as no surprise to EGW.


It makes sense because I was re-considering Boom at the time, so I switched Boom because I didn't want him dying, plus I would rather have someone who prefers to use the chat then not use it. She was fine with the plan, but doesn't mean she would be comfortable with it.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:24 am UTC

I'll be home later at night, I'm still at work. If anyone has any questions, quote them and I'll get to them.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:26 am UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:Because Yolinda died via mod kill so them taking actions is less likely.


That would make Bessie scum from the get go, which would not make sense if PW was masoned with her D2. His slot had taken actions, and had intended to lurk through the whole day. How does that affect your reads? Can you go into why you still suspect Boom and Laser? (Play wise)

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:54 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:The kill choices have been very odd all game which makes me hesitant to read into them too deeply.
How can you say this when you use it to implicate Ryu here? Also where does your read on Ryu liking riskier plays come from?

BoomFrog wrote:Sabrar is still scum lean but less confident with recent events. Still second or third scummiest though by PoE.
How does your PoE work?

I agree, analysing kill targets is fraught with assumptions. I'm just trying to think through any clues we have. I evaluate Red as a risk taker due to his cavalier style. He's less engaged with the game, which means he takes the game less seriously then others here do. (This is not a criticism, just an observation). EGW'S anecdote that Red drunk posts sometimes also informed this assessment. Anyway, I didn't say he likes risky play, I'm just saying he has the most potential for then others here.

My PoE is probably outdated, you are right. I need to reevaluate.

Not Moody-mafia:
EGW
Sabrar
Red (would have protected Bessie)
Probably plytho, but he may have bussed Moody
Madge (Bessie was still seriously pushing her)
Me (wine, but whatever. I beat the drum for the Moody lynch and Bessie was gunning for me)
mpolo (too big a target for killers)

Not killer:
Red (wouldn't have killed his protectee)
Probably LaserGuy (judgment is too risky for an SK power)
Madge (can't be SK, if we get one killer and all NKs stop then maybe forced her to tree stump and let her get lynched by the last townie 1 vs 1. Unless Sabrar is a killer) (also half-jester SK is crazy)

That leaves LaserGuy and a distant plytho for last Mafia. And one or two of (Sabrar, Me, plytho, EGW, mpolo) as killers.

Killer bus driver is weird, but so is everything this game.
Bullet proof killer + one shot untargetable is a weird combination, so I doubt EGW is a lone SK.
Plytho and Sabrar fit with SK style abilities.

I'm leaning Laser as last Mafia and Sabrar or mpolo as SK. plytho was way too happy that Bessie was Mafia.

I'm going to sleep on it before voting though.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Madge » Wed Oct 25, 2017 4:38 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:It'd be nice to confirm that Madge is really jailed, but since plytho's ability ignores untargetable I can't think of how to test it.


It'd basically require you lot activating my ability and then me using it on someone (WHO?), but I think with the low number of players rn I'm not super comfortable either unilaterally removing someone's vote OR trusting the consensus on whose vote to remove.

Based on what we know, Red Ryu is my favourite target for today.

I'm taking the day off tomorrow to work on my assignment (it's been really kicking my butt guys), so I might be finished or at least calm enough to properly think about this game in 24 hours. I think that still gives me some time before deadline to try an analysis, I might try and put 30 minutes into it if that's the case.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:18 am UTC

Madge wrote:Based on what we know, Red Ryu is my favourite target for today.

I'm not going to discuss testing your power or jail. It's a waste of the limited time you have for the game.

Red can't be Mafia, because Bessie was Mafia and Red would have protected her. Red probably isn't in the second faction that has a kill because killing one of his protectees would be stupid. (Red was told to protect Bessie or Sabrar last night)
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:23 am UTC

Final thoughts before sleep. Laser has been putting effort into figuring things out today, especially defending Red doesn't make sense. Maybe Mafia is eliminated.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:46 am UTC

Won't be able to post in depth, I have work in a few hours. Sabrar and Red Ryu, can I see a full reads list with reasoning?

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:48 am UTC

If we are thinking SK we still have to think why he was not deterred from bessie as Ryu was supposedly protecting her or Sab.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:53 am UTC

Finally I feel like people are letting Ryu's claim let him ride the day phase. Do remember he is not even invested enough to check for my message, which shed doubt on myself, mpolo, and laser earlier for a little bit.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:54 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:If we are thinking SK we still have to think why he was not deterred from bessie as Ryu was supposedly protecting her or Sab.
Most likely a strongman kill from SK or killer mafia.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:58 am UTC

Plytho, you have a problem with me changing the plan. Run down why you feel that makes me scum, and why I would do that for scum benefit. Do you think there would be a different outcome today if I left it unchanged? Explain.

Good night.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:59 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Finally I feel like people are letting Ryu's claim let him ride the day phase. Do remember he is not even invested enough to check for my message, which shed doubt on myself, mpolo, and laser earlier for a little bit.
It's more the fact that it seems extremely unlikely for him to have targeted one of his protectees that keeps him alive at this point.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:00 am UTC

Also tell me who my buddies are in your perspective and why. (or if I have none and why)

Then run down who should be the play if I were lynched and flipped town.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:03 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Won't be able to post in depth, I have work in a few hours. Sabrar and Red Ryu, can I see a full reads list with reasoning?
Please react to LaserGuy's case on you first. There are a lot of things there that I agree with (some which I don't) and I find it very curious that you don't reply/mention it.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:05 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Plytho, you have a problem with me changing the plan. Run down why you feel that makes me scum, and why I would do that for scum benefit. Do you think there would be a different outcome today if I left it unchanged? Explain.


- It makes you scum(my) because scum!you, knowing you intend to target bessie with the night kill might want to get a townie in the chat so you can get more influence on them there and get more information out of them than they might be willing to share in thread.

- There's no different outcome (except my suspicion of you) since I followed the original plan. If I'd followed your plan we'd be chatting with BoomFrog now and you'd be able influence him in chat.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:07 am UTC

Don't have the time to right now. It would be nice if he could give brief points I could talk about. Maybe tonight.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:23 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Also tell me who my buddies are in your perspective and why. (or if I have none and why)

Then run down who should be the play if I were lynched and flipped town.

I think mpolo makes the most sense as your buddy. BoomFrog is a distant possibility.

I'm not sure who should be the play if you flip town. I'd really expected the bessie flip would narrow things down but I realise it didn't really.

I'm suspicious of you, mpolo, Red and Boom but mostly you and mpolo. If you flip town and mpolo and Red survive the night they look most suspicious.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:29 am UTC

Btw, EGW, the timing of your switch of the plan was also suspicious. Bessie had posted her initial objection and subsequent two posts saying she didn't actually object way before you changed my target. You only changed it after I went to bed right before nightfall at a point where I couldn't publicly object to it and it was pretty clear that I would.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:33 am UTC

Pro’s and cons of lynching/Mislynching my bottom 4 (Red, mpolo, EGW, BoomFrog)

General: we may be in Mylo in which case Mislynching is terrible and lynching scum our only way to victory.

This can be kind of split up into two groups. On the one hand we have mpolo and Red Ryu with claims of useful townie powers but few connections to other players and a relatively low impact on the game. On the other hand we have BoomFrog and EGW with pretty much useless claimed powers and a big impact and awareness of the game. (mpolo does seem aware, but not very involved)

With Red and mpolo a mislynch is terrible because we lose their power. Mislynching BoomFrog or EGW isn't as bad since we don't really lose anything power-wise. On top of that it confirms their ample content as townie instead of wine. We do lose awareness and engagement which is important in the late game.

The benefit of lynching correctly (besides the obvious fact that we get rid of scum) is what we can learn from that lynch. Can we draw solid conclusions?

EGW and BoomFrog have a lot of posts and opinions so finding connections there should be much easier than finding connections on an mpolo or Red flip.

So based on this I'm more inclined to lynch BoomFrog or EGW.

The problem is that mpolo and Red look scummier than Boom and EGW.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby mpolo » Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:20 am UTC

Trying to read through everything. Let me at least try to gather thoughts. I only have 10 minutes left…

plytho: early scummy read, but has improved considerably. Could be on a team with EGW, but seems unlikely.
EGW: consistent townie read, with some doubt coming in the last couple days. Confirmed that my redirection was employed where I said it was (scum could have easily framed me).
BoomFrog: Lingering scummy vibe, at the same time, my biggest supporter.
RedRyu: Long thought to be scummy, but his power, if real, points to towniness. From the point of view of balance, provides necessary protection for town. If the note power is actually a scum forgery, I will feel somewhat cheated here.
Sabrar: consistent townie read, MegaMan needs to be town from a balance standpoint.
Madge: power that activates on voting, can't hammer (assuming she is telling the truth). At the same time, little real help with scumhunting.
LaserGuy: power as a one-shot could go either way, strong start on subbing in, some questions arise later.

Let's try to order these:

TOWN
Sabrar
EGW

Red Ryu
Madge
plytho

LaserGuy
BoomFrog
SCUM

Haven't looked as to whether anyone makes sense as a team here.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:21 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@EGW: what is a secondary ability? Presumably that does not include a kill. In what way could your roleblock be useful? You said you were saving it. Saving it to do what?


It would block a player's passive if they have one, for that night and the next day.
Do you block secondary abilities or passive abilities?
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