Secret Santa 2017 Endgame - Merry Christmas

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Sabrar
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:52 am UTC

@bessie: why didn't you target Madge N1?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:42 am UTC

My power, to be used on N2, tells me what my target used on N1. So Madge, your three N1 choices please.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:49 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm not seeing a second time when I might have made a mistake, or could have appeared to have made a mistake.
It is wrt Lemma1 from where I actually copied your comment.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Lemma 1 - If I am scum, so is moody. I think this looks okay from my slightly biased perspective. Given that it's Secret Santa, who knows what messing about there is with the roles, but from what we know at least, it's solid. Sabrar being scum does not change this.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:51 am UTC

@bessie: is that your full claim?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:54 am UTC

If it just tells you what power I used on N1, it's not going to matter who I did it to? Or am I missing something?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:56 am UTC

N1 was one of:

Bessie
Liri
Plytho
Sabrar
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:57 am UTC

those are my submitted targets so the moody-modified targets would be, respectively:

wam
Madge
moody
somitomi
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:35 am UTC

That’s not three. :P And wam was already dead, so unless you can target dead players, your adjusted targets are:

Sabrar
Madge
moody
somitomi


My target used an ability on N1 that sends a message.

Hmm, my guess is that you’re going to claim your original target was Sabrar.

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: is that your full claim?
No, I have something different I can use on N3, that will tell me something about N2.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:40 am UTC

Let's wait for Madge's claim but I don't see how both claims can be true at the same time.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:45 am UTC

@bessie: if you're scum you should be ashamed of yourself.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:57 am UTC

Three for N2, four for D1, just to give you less room to get lucky with your guess.

I targeted Sabrar N1, so you're right. That means moody's power would have moved that to somitomi.

If my ability sends a message I got no input into what the message was. I just selected two of these four smileys: :!: :?: :idea: :arrow: and said my target was Sabrar, and I got a message the next day saying I aimed my toy and it made a noise and then the button I pressed went dark.

So that's my full details, except for my N2 target and the exact buttons I pressed.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:00 am UTC

somitomi wrote:I have nothing to claim either.
From here.

Seriously wanting to YOLO-vote bessie right now but I'm sure it would lose us the game either way.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:26 am UTC

@bessie: what result do you get if your target is roleblocked?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:29 am UTC

This all makes no sense.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:33 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: if you're scum you should be ashamed of yourself.
I’m ashamed of myself every day, and not because of anything related to this game. :P

Sabrar wrote:Seriously wanting to YOLO-vote bessie right now but I'm sure it would lose us the game either way.
Then vote me. I targeted Madge. I was told my target sent a message on N1. So unless I was redirected, Madge sent a message on N1. What makes you so sure that the message contained something somitomi would have wanted to claim?

Ninja'd. No idea. I didn't consider it because I got a result. I did consider that I was redirected to flicky, but flicky had a day message power and he claimmed he didn't use it anyway.

And before you ask, I can target dead players.

And before you ask again, I considered that "message" was not necessarily just a message, but may have also contained a gift.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:38 am UTC

See for all I know I did send a message so I have no reason to disbelief. However I think it's clear that sabrar knows more than he's letting on?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:29 am UTC

Nope. It just doesn't make any sense.
bessie wrote:And before you ask again, I considered that "message" was not necessarily just a message, but may have also contained a gift.
Did you clarify this with the mods?

I find it hard to believe that someone would deliberately submit an ability that just screws people over by not revealing what the ability does. I find it even harder to believe that a button would send a pre-recorded message with no input from the player.
I see no reason why Madge would lie about sending a message. I see no reason why scum!Madge would send a message anyway.
Nobody claimed having received a message. That would leave plytho but that means that Liri must have redirected Madge to jimbob. This makes no sense because why would town redirect their scum-read to a townie-read???
Other possibility is that somitomi might have blocked Madge in which case the message didn't go through but bessie might have received a result anyway.

Scenario 1: both of you town. I have very strong views against Madge's ability in this setup but I'll keep it as a possibility. somitomi must have blocked Madge N1.
Scenario 2: both scum. Epic bussing. Don't see this at all, evwn disregarding D1 voting they could have come up with simpler false-claims and helped me mislynch moody.
Scenario 3: bessie scum. Totally possible.
Scenario 4: Madge scum. As mentioned before it makes no sense for her to lie about a harmless power like that. Could be she didn't want to claim true power though. Again somitomi must have blocked Madge N1.

Well, that didn't lead to anything good. Time to disregard claims and reread.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:42 am UTC

I was a little disappointed to get an ability that wasn't clear, but I assumed the buttons were clues - I'll be very disappointed if they weren't.

I targeted you N1 Sabrar with the following button: :?: :idea:

(for the record actually Wam was my first choice but I had you as backup)

The reason for those targets is I thought it would probably be some sort of investigative ability, and I thought a result on wam would be useful (I submitted it early in the day so this was before it was clear he wasn't going to survive to N1), and I picked Sabrar as a backup for the same reason.

I'm not sure if the button is indicative of a message though, but the lightbulb I could see being an inventor type signal so maybe it is indicative of a gift?

In that case, perhaps, e.g. somitomi could have been given a one-shot cop power and didn't claim it on D2 for obvious reasons.

If someone received an invention, would it be revealed in their death flip?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:50 am UTC

Wait. If moody tells the truth somitomi couldn't have blocked Madge.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:52 am UTC

Madge wrote:If someone received an invention, would it be revealed in their death flip?


No.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:53 am UTC

Madge wrote:In that case, perhaps, e.g. somitomi could have been given a one-shot cop power and didn't claim it on D2 for obvious reasons.
Could theoretically be true but then he should have phrased it differently and I think he would have.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:37 am UTC

Liri wrote:Moody, Sabrar, Suzaku (a stretch, not much to go on), or Somitomi (also not much to go on) I would feel more comfortable voting for.
For reference purposes, to be used later.

Reread D1 with more care. Unless they took bussing to a whole new level Madge cannot be buddies with bessie or jimbob. Let's discard those scenarios completely.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:40 am UTC

If anyone received any kind of message/gift N1 they should immediately speak up.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:43 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Wait. If moody tells the truth somitomi couldn't have blocked Madge.
Revised. He could have.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:46 am UTC

@bessie, jimbob: please post a full analysis of each other. Don't use shortcuts.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:09 am UTC

moody could easily be Madge's scum-buddy. The timing of his vote on her is super convenient.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:38 pm UTC

@moody: you should ask the mods how your ability interacts with Liri's redirection. In detail:
Liri redirects A to B. Your ability supposedly has priority, changing A to C and B to D. So now supposedly C would target D. However you also affect C's targeting, possibly changing D to E. What happens in this case?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@moody: you should ask the mods how your ability interacts with Liri's redirection. In detail:
Liri redirects A to B. Your ability supposedly has priority, changing A to C and B to D. So now supposedly C would target D. However you also affect C's targeting, possibly changing D to E. What happens in this case?


Question sent. Been trying to go through the whole Madge and bessie thing, and between multiple redirectors possibly stacking and them both being cagey regarding their results, it's a bit confusing (with the strong possibility of one of them being intentionally so). So

Inigo Montoya wrote:Let me explain... . No, there is too much. Let me sum up.


N1: Madge pushes her buttons to do something, aims it at Sabrar, which because of me actually goes to somi. bessie investigates Madge in some way (or originally targets Liri and gets shifted to Madge by me)
D2: somi says he has nothing to say about N1. Sabrar's implied theory is further redirection hijinks caused by Liri
N2: bessie finds out Madge's buttons sent a message. Madge does something she hasn't revealed yet.

Do I have this right?
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:15 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@bessie, jimbob: please post a full analysis of each other. Don't use shortcuts.
I'll see what I can do later - I've got quite a bit to do around the house today, so don't know when I'll get around to it. I am curious as to why you've singled bessie and I out though.

I think it's certainly possible that bessie and Madge are both town, and telling the truth, even without anybody being blocked. For a start, why couldn't Liri have redirected somitomi or Madge somehow?

Madge's claim is too detailed, in my opinion, to be completely made up, but it is possible that she isn't being 100% honest. I don't really know. I think there's likely to be clues in the nature of the buttons, as suggested, although I have no idea what. I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of the combinations does not do anything useful.

I'm not certain why Sabrar's so suspicious of what bessie claimed (assuming that he is - he might not be, but that's the impression I got), although it feels to me like she is holding something back, as a single ability that can only be used on N2 feels a bit light.

Moody - I think you have it right.
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Image

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:30 pm UTC

@Sabrar: in answer to the role stacking question, the mods say no comment.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:38 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:N1: bessie investigates Madge in some way (or originally targets Liri and gets shifted to Madge by me)
If I understood correctly bessie claims to have targeted Madge N2 when you performed no redirection.
moody7277 wrote:@Sabrar: in answer to the role stacking question, the mods say no comment.
Unfortunately I believe you even though I do not approve of this decision.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:44 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I am curious as to why you've singled bessie and I out though.
My nightmare scenario is the {bessie,jimbob} scum-team as we probably won't lynch any of you today. There are a couple of minor things bugging me about this possibility, partially because you had very little interaction with each other as both of you was read comfortably Town all-around so you focused your attention elsewhere. If you can convince me that isn't the case I can in good conscience vote moody by PoE.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:For a start, why couldn't Liri have redirected somitomi or Madge somehow?
That's what I'm trying to figure out.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:although it feels to me like she is holding something back, as a single ability that can only be used on N2 feels a bit light.
bessie already claimed to have an ability for N3.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:38 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
moody7277 wrote:N1: bessie investigates Madge in some way (or originally targets Liri and gets shifted to Madge by me)
If I understood correctly bessie claims to have targeted Madge N2 when you performed no redirection.
moody7277 wrote:@Sabrar: in answer to the role stacking question, the mods say no comment.
Unfortunately I believe you even though I do not approve of this decision.




8. This setup is closed and moderately bastard. We will not lie to you or provide misleading information, but may choose not to answer questions. Generally, we will not answer questions about how a particular role will interact with another claimed or hypothetical role. Some roles may have hidden elements or have somewhat bastard mechanics subject to the restrictions indicated at the bottom of this section.

We have reasons for what we do. Deal with it
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:38 pm UTC

:D
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:59 pm UTC

An already revealed role (after the player's death) is neither claimed nor hypothetical. It is entirely reasonable for players to expect receiving answers on how specific interactions work for standard or mod-confirmed mechanics. That is my last word on it and I'll leave it alone in the future.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:22 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Did you clarify this with the mods?
I have requested clarification from the mods.

Sabrar wrote:I find it hard to believe that someone would deliberately submit an ability that just screws people over by not revealing what the ability does. I find it even harder to believe that a button would send a pre-recorded message with no input from the player.
So just because you wouldn’t submit an unknown random confusing power doesn’t mean that someone out there doesn’t have a sense of humor.

Sabrar wrote:I see no reason why Madge would lie about sending a message. I see no reason why scum!Madge would send a message anyway.
I see no reason why a townie (or really anyone except maybe an indie) would use an unknown power, at least on N1. I can see Madge doing it regardless of alignment though.

Sabrar wrote:Other possibility is that somitomi might have blocked Madge in which case the message didn't go through but bessie might have received a result anyway.
If Madge was roleblocked in N1, it shouldn’t change the fact that she used her power and sent the message. It should just mean that somitomi didn’t receive it.

Madge wrote:I was a little disappointed to get an ability that wasn't clear, but I assumed the buttons were clues - I'll be very disappointed if they weren't.
If the buttons are clues, then perhaps the question mark indicates that you did not target who you think you targeted.

Sabrar wrote:Wait. If moody tells the truth somitomi couldn't have blocked Madge.
Why not? Never mind, I see you revised this.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: it feels to me like she is holding something back, as a single ability that can only be used on N2 feels a bit light.
That particular ability could only be used on N2. I have something different for N3. But why do you think everyone has to have a supercharged power?

I’ll work on updated analysis/reads of everyone, but I don’t know if I will have time for this today. If not, I should have time tomorrow. Even doing just jimbob will take a good amount of time.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:57 pm UTC

Votals

Nobody is voting.

It is LLYLO. Deadline 5 days

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:40 pm UTC

I was hoping the question mark indicated an investigation, like I said. The lightbulb I thought was also investigation-indicative. But who knows, could easily be wrong!
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:34 am UTC

As promised, in depth re-read of bessie. Post-by-post breakdown in the spoilers, with a few small observations along the way.

D1:
Spoiler:
Post 1: Confirmation. Nothing special.
Post 2: Busy with RL. Sabrar is eager.
Post 3: Welcomes Liri, recommends asking for help. Being helpful to new players is normal. No suspicious confirmation posts (normal for bessie to look at this). Setup 7-2-1 or 6-2-1-1. Lots of superpowered roles. wam looks to be digging for reasons to vote her. Asks me about Madge being excited, but notes her content is light. Sabrar might have posting restriction, or might be wound up by not playing last game. FoS wam - writing roles shouldn't affect number of factions/faction kills. FoS plytho for forgetting rules. It's quite normal for bessie to FoS people for little things, such as forgetting/being inconsistent with rules. Noting people's behaviour without further comment (as she did with Sabrar) is also quite typical bessie. Nothing in this post to suggest bessie is anything other than normal.
Post 4: Responds to Sabrar "explaining" his behaviour by pointing out she already observed most of them (aside from meta points). Wants to know why Madge thinks cop isn't useful for mafia. Responds to Sabrar re. game notes. Complains at moody labelling her top-town. Explains why she likes ordered town-scum lists to Liri, and asks him about what games he followed. Confused by wam's reasons behind maintaining his vote on her. Doesn't like being auto-meta-town-read, and surprised that Sabrar is doing it. Doesn't like winey posts re. meta change by Madge - IGMEOYs and FoSs Madge. Neither did I. Apologises for being sarcastic. This post is much like the previous one - picking on posts that she doesn't like from a range of people (Madge, Sabrar, wam), whilst also being helpful to a newbie. They feel pretty standard bessie to me.
Post 4: Explains her notes in detail to Sabrar. Doesn't get somitomi's movie reference. Labelling Maven as neutral is acceptable, but notes that his home site treats lurking as scum - excuse for labelling Maven as scum for little reason, maybe? Thinks wam is trolling her. Could be two killing factions with e.g. alternating kills. Confused by Sabrar's meta read referencing her lack of Gojoe post. I think I'd be as equally surprised if this kind of meta read was made on me. Notes that plytho is being very succinct, and asks him to provide some useful content.
Post 5: Engages with plytho re. a discussion about meta. Notes that meta-switching might be on his mind. This bit seems very timid by bessie's standard - had plytho flipped scum, this would have been a good indicator of bessie being his buddy, but he didn't so, I'm not really sure what to make of this. Explains to Liri why lynching someone D1 is useful (more helping newbie player). Thinking about Sabrar's meta-read of Madge. Finds plytho's remark re. not lynching and losing a townie confusing. Clarifies why she likes ordered lists. Gives evidence for somitomi of past posting restrictions. The thing I find most odd about this post is the lack of any questions for others. I feel like bessie usually asks lots of questions, but maybe I'm misremembering her.
Post 6: Dog bit her. Asks Sabrar whether he missed the fact that she planned on coming back to his meta-read of Madge. Acknowledges that she might be over-analyzing plytho. Notes that Sabrar's content is different. Wishes Madge good luck. Doesn't like Madge setting up the need to deal with contaminated results. Doesn't like Madge's ordered list, and the associated disclaimers, especially given her comment about wam, something I agreed with. Passive discussion with plytho. Confused about Liri wanting to make up his reads (again I was too), and prods him for scum-reads and reasons. Responds to my comment re. her tone and focus on Madge - her content is suspicious. Doesn't see a need to push moody for info about his power. Wants to know why Suzaku only cares about the wagon. Has Sabrar and me top townie, Madge, wam scummiest. I find putting Sabrar as top-townie quite surprising, given his weird behaviour so far (and acknowledged by herself). She also didn't needle him as much up to this point, as I'd expect, given his posting style. Evidence of a Sabrar-bessie team?
Post 7: Didn't want to discuss moody's power too much, or it would become useless. Thinks he shouldn't have claimed, and finds it suspicious that he did (see my earlier thoughts on the same subject). Abstains from offering an opinion on moody's usage, to avoid giving scum more information (I had a different opinion on this, but this opinion is still valid). Thinks Liri doesn't want to commit to a read. Responds to Sabrar's comment re. plytho's stubbornness. Suzaku voting would at least be contributing something. Asks somitomi a slightly weird question about claiming indie if Sabrar weren't present - this feels a little active-lurky question, but it could just be bessie's sarcastic style, and it was more rhetorical. Finds Sabrar to be defending Madge too much (I agree). Asks Liri for solid opinions, and a town-scum list. Reads reasoning spread out, promises to compile it all. Continues to be confused by Sabrar's defence of Madge and votes her. Her Madge vote is a bit of odd timing - as far as I can see, her reasons hadn't changed since her previous post, so why wait until this point? Note, prior to this post, the votals were tied.
Post 8: Clearly getting frustrated by Sabrar, and defends her case on and needling of Madge. Thinks Liri should vote due to close votals. Responds to wam, re. adding Sabrar's meta-read to her notes. Promises more content D2. Wants to know why Liri isn't voting. Disappointed with Madge's reason for posting (i.e. to avoid replacement). Brings up plytho's previous suggestion re. scum knowing each others submitted role. Prods somitomi for a vote. This was her last post of D1.
For the most part, bessie's D1 posts seem pretty typical bessie - needling a range of people, whilst focusing on one particular person generally (Madge in this case). I find it slightly noteworthy that although she had wam as second-scummiest, she didn't really say much about him in the second half of the Day. Also, as I previously noted, her interactions with a number of players was pretty low (in particular, with me, somitomi, and moody). Both these points are not necessarily unusual for bessie, because she usually tunnels somebody early on, and it might just be that she saw little that was noteworthy of comment in our posts. I find the timing of her vote on Madge curious. Why did she wait to vote until the post after the one where she labelled Madge as top scum? There wasn't anything in her post with the vote about Madge's content (just some stuff about Sabrar's read on her. Also of note was her top-town read on Sabrar, despite his weirdness (which she acknowledged was there, but didn't really concern herself with too much). If one of Sabrar or bessie flips scum, the other definitely needs looking at that based on this. Finally, bessie at one point promised to summarise her reasons for her reads on each person in a single post, but never did, though this might be due to her relative lack of free time. Overall, I don't really see anything in bessie's D1 content that screams that she is definitely scum. Of the players remaining that are still alive, she certainly isn't team-mates with Madge based on this day's posts, but Sabrar or moody both look like viable buddies.

D2:
Spoiler:
Post 1: Nothing to claim. Moody setting himself up to be the target would be townie (except that if he was scum, he'd know how the kill was going to work). Points out that assuming truthful-moody implies I was the night kill target. I'm not sure scum!bessie would have had any reason to point this out, but maybe it's just an attempt at grabbing townie points? Thinks he claimed details too early, and scum could have adjusted their plans accordingly.
Post 2: End of D1 her read on somitomi was slight town, possible indie. Promises a complete reread. Jokes around with Sabrar. Asks Sabrar what his role is in this game. Explains why she didn't post more later as promised. Annoyed with Madge for not reading two pages of content, and thinks she could try doing some scum-hunting instead. Here we see bessie continuing her Madge tunnel somewhat, but little else of useful information.
Post 3: Points out that moody must have forgotten the flip details. Continues her ongoing discussion with Sabrar over Madge. Confused why Madge needed the kill target implications explained to her. Explains in detail her reason for finding Sabrar non-scum. Maybe independent, but likely town. I find this detailed explanation for her town read of Sabrar to have come almost out of the blue. More bessie + Sabrar buddy points, maybe.
Post 4: Doesn't do good meta reads or have reliable gut instincts. Defends herself on doing meta reads, and points to past games and other reasons for doing this. I'm surprised by her apparent defensiveness here. That doesn't feel very bessie-like.
Post 5: Asks if day ends like hammer re. Sabrar's kill.
Post 6: Confused by Sabrar's actions and moody's redirect.
Post 7: Asks Sabrar if he wants to claim indie. These past few posts make me inclined to believe that bessie is not buddies with Sabrar after all, despite my earlier points. If she is buddies, she did a very good job of staging the whole conversation between them around the timing of the kill. I get the impression that bessie is genuinely surprised by Sabrar's kill, which wouldn't come from a buddy.
Post 8: Reads list of most players. On me, agrees with most of my reads, except for town read on somitomi, and didn't like my response to Suzaku. She also noted my observation re. her not saying much about certain players, but doesn't explain why. Had a number of issues with Liri, but also noted several things she liked about his play, finding him townie overall. Her scum read on Madge is based on the points she already noted. Her read on moody basically summarises her previous comments about him too, finding him suspicious for a number of things relating to his claim. Doesn't have a super strong town read based on his content, but no scummy pings. Picks up a couple of odd things she found in somitomi's comments. I don't have any real issues with any of her reads - most of them matched my own thoughts around that time.
Post 9: Corrects a mistake in her previous post.
Post 10: Thinks town!Sabrar more likely, as indie with a target would have left the game already. Needed to think about it some more.
Post 11: Sabrar's claim is consistent with behaviour, but does not confirm townieness. Finally explains that she put Sabrar as top townie for meta read and having suspicions on other players. Feels a bit like post-hoc reasoning, but could be perfectly okay.
Post 12: Posts comments about moody/me/plytho and the night kill target, in response to Liri proposing a me/moody team. In this she makes the observation that moody would have needed to perform the redirect and kill (why?), but is uncertain if that would be possible. This uncertainty would have to be staged if she is scum. Comes to the conclusion that me/moody is unlikely, as it would have been too risky. Continues her annoyance with Madge for not reading the thread properly. Needs to reread Sabrar, given his claim.
Post 13: Posts reads of Sabrar and Suzaku. Clarifies a point from the previous post. Goes into more depth about not liking Suzaku's reading of only the main wagons. Found his defence of Madge as noteworthy, and finds Suzaku scum overall. Her conclusions on Sabrar are essentially the same as before.
Post 14: Looks at Sabrar's Lemma post, from a non-Sabrar POV. Concludes that unlikely that moody and I are scum separately. I think I've already taken issue with this before, although I can't remember if it was this specific point, but ruling out moody as scum without me is weird, since it assumes that scum!moody would have thought about the clearing a townie aspect. bessie/moody scum team likelihood just went up a notch. Disagrees with Sabrar's Lemma 2 for reasonable reasons. Concludes that Sabrar is not likely scum with Liri.
Post 15: RL issues. moody is looking better, following me/moody analysis. Nothing from flicky has changed her opinion, and neither has Madge. Would prefer to lynch either of them.
Post 16: Found plytho's early comments suspicious because he might have been playing down the risk of a serial killer. Points out the random-alignment assignment.
Post 17: Wants to know why moody accepts Sabrar=town as an axiom. Wants some reads or town/scum list from Madge. Asks me about the beneficial-to-scum confusion I was talking about from moody. Thinks Madge/moody unlikely as why would they have wanted to clear me. I made my point above about how they may not have thought about the consequences of their kill choice. Nothing in flicky's content to dissuade her that he isn't scum. Agrees with much of my content this game. Scummy tells from Liri could be newbieness. No strong opinions from Madge on anybody. Moody and Sabrar no new updates. Doesn't end up voting. End of D2.
As noted in the notes above, I think it unlikely that bessie/Sabrar is a possible pair due to her reactions around the time of Sabrar's day kill. However, her belief that moody is town, unless he is scum with me seems to be a bit of a stretch, making a moody/bessie team highly plausible. She didn't vote D2, but as she wanted Madge (who wasn't a wagon) or flicky (who was basically already lynched, so didn't need voting for) to be lynched, I'm not too bothered by this. Overall, her D2 posts feel quite different to D1, in that she isn't large numbers of responses and comments of various degrees of aggression like she does normally. However, her overall reads feel somewhat similar to mine, which makes her look good in my books.
D3:
Spoiler:
Post 1: Finds Madge's reason for Sabrar/bessie to be weird. Asks her why moody should be last. Thinks Madge should claim first with power and targets.
Post 2: Tongue-in-cheek makes a meta-read that it is entirely normal for Madge to use an unknown power, irrespective of alignment. Points out that if scum submitted the role then they don't need to guess about the button abilities. FWIW, I almost certainly would have used Madge's ability, had I had it.
Post 3: Apologises for brief posts, citing RL reasons. Suggested that Madge could have withheld (see my comment above though). Claims to have targeted Madge with an investigative power. Her result might conflict with Madge's claim.
Post 4 + 5: Gives a bit more detail about her power, and wants Madge to give details of targets in return.
Post 6: bessie's target used an ability that sends a message. Thinks Madge likely targeted Sabrar originally. Has something else she can use N3 to give info about N2.
Post 7: Challenges Sabrar to vote her. Wants to know why somitomi definitely would have claimed. Considered that message might have contained a gift.
Post 8: Asked for clarification about message/gift. Points out that not everybody submits roles like Sabrar does. Doesn't see any reason why a townie would use an unknown power (see my thoughts on this above). Madge being roleblocked would explain somitomi not receiving a message. Maybe Madge didn't target who she thinks she targeted. Asks me why I think everyone has a supercharged power. Promises that she'll work on reads.
bessie's D3 content has largely revolved around the claims, and particularly Madge's. I disagree with bessie regarding townies not using an unknown power on N1, since I'm pretty sure I would, if I had Madge's power (I ate a random piece of turkey meat last Secret Santa without knowing what it did, and got a cop power - I could have just as easily have died). I believe that bessie is likely telling the truth about what she has seen, as making up seeing someone use a message ability is a little bit of a weird thing to make up. This doesn't confirm bessie's alignment however.
bessie wrote:That particular ability could only be used on N2. I have something different for N3. But why do you think everyone has to have a supercharged power?
Because in a Secret Santa, having a single use of one ability, constrained in when it can be used, seems a little dull. Now that I see that I missed the claim of a N3 ability, I'm less concerned about this.

Conclusion: bessie's D1 content looks pretty normal for bessie. Her D2 content less so, although she did have various real-life reasons that might help explain this. There are a few small pings in her content, but nothing massive. I'm not sure I can draw much from her D3 content, as it's mostly around claims, and I see no reason to disbelieve what she is claiming. I think the only person she can be scum with is moody, and indeed there are a few small pointers indicating this, although none of them definitively paint either of them as scum.

@bessie - please could you go back over your case for moody only being scum with me, because I don't agree with it. Also, are you seriously saying that you wouldn't have used Madge's power in her shoes on N1? What about N2?

Okay - that took way too many hours to complete. Time for bed!
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

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Sabrar
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:15 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Because in a Secret Santa, having a single use of one ability, constrained in when it can be used, seems a little dull. Now that I see that I missed the claim of a N3 ability, I'm less concerned about this.
Why didn't you voice the same concern wrt my ability?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I believe that bessie is likely telling the truth about what she has seen, as making up seeing someone use a message ability is a little bit of a weird thing to make up.
This is illogical because we're in LYLO. scum!bessie could easily set up Madge to be mislynched with a lie as there's no way of verifying it and we can't afford the usual "lynch one, if wrong lynch the other" procedure.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:However, her belief that moody is town, unless he is scum with me seems to be a bit of a stretch, making a moody/bessie team highly plausible.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@bessie - please could you go back over your case for moody only being scum with me, because I don't agree with it.
Why didn't you bring up post 12 as a reason to challenge this read at either of these points?


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