Secret Santa 2017 Endgame - Merry Christmas

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Sabrar
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:36 am UTC

@jimbob: meanwhile can you revisit the first part of this? I don't think it's irrelevant.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:44 am UTC

I agree, moody next. My claim won't be affected by his, as you'll see when I do claim, but I see no reason to give scum!moody bonus information to work with. As for bessie, I've consistently read her as townie all game, and I don't see anything to change that. I'd rather scum!moody didn't get the chance to adjust his claim to try to implicate somebody else. I'm also not happy about Madge refusing to claim targets just yet, since my claim could affect what she claims.

@Sabrar, I'll look later, just getting to work now.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:55 am UTC

I think it's extremely likely that the mods modified some of the buttons just because I have I think 8 buttons total and I'm sure at least one of the powers was unacceptable (not even sure if the powers are all different or what).

@jimbob If it helps I breadcrumbed one of my buttons and targets but I tried not to make it too obvious so I'm not sure if people will accept it - I will point it out when I claim my targets though.

I don't know what my buttons do so I don't see how my power can interact with anyone's anything to change my claim validity. Like, for all I know I was roleblocked or my target was jailed.

I guess you're worreid that say one of the buttons was cop and so I have e.g. a cop result on moody? I'll say that I didnd't get results from either of my power uses.

@Bessie: what the HELL was I meant to do with the power other than ignore it? Like I didn't know what the buttons would do and I was assuming that the button had something to do with its actions and was hoping to be able to figure it out.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:09 am UTC

The thing is if Madge doesn't know what the buttons do (or at least claims she doesn't) then it makes zero sense for her to reveal what buttons she pressed.
On the other hand should anyone reveal a Watcher/Tracker power then Madge should claim first who she targeted and on which night so it might be verified.
Should noone reveal a power that gets a result depending on who targeted whom then Madge shouldn't even reveal her targets in my opinion as it really offers no advantage to us.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:13 am UTC

If I'm killed then my flip will show what the buttons did, that's why I think I should claim them at some point. I think the town is probably going to vote to kill me and if that doesn't make us lose then I'd like town to have complete info.

Are we at MMLYLO / LLYLO?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Madge » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:14 am UTC

Also me doubling/tripling down on the button metaphor here was meant to breadcrumb my role in case anyone wanted some more convincing:

Madge wrote:
moody7277 wrote:@plytho: Your other question was when I decided I was pushing the button on my power, right? I did it about the same time as I voted for wam.


I like that you decided to push the button, because it makes me feel better that it's my meta to claim early and claim often (admittedly I'm trying to change that meta as it's probably not optimal strategically, but I'll probably end up pushing my own proverbial button earlier than I should, but hey, one step at a time and there'll be other games and other buttons, to just completely ride the metaphor until itss wheels fall off).
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:33 am UTC

Madge wrote:If I'm killed then my flip will show what the buttons did, that's why I think I should claim them at some point. I think the town is probably going to vote to kill me and if that doesn't make us lose then I'd like town to have complete info.

Are we at MMLYLO / LLYLO?
Right, I forgot that you might be killed. Still you should do it in a way as to not give scum the info right now (though it's probably useless anyway).

We're at LLYLO.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:14 pm UTC

Also I looked and I don't think I can find my target crumb so I might have made it so subtle I lost track of it.... Just in case anyone will try and hold me to it :-\
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:41 pm UTC

Fine, I'm the elf coordinator, keeper of the schedule, which explains the whole everyone's actions go one person down thing. N1 I did use my redirecting, N2 I did not.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:43 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Please paraphrase as well what your role-pm says about the priority of your action.

Please.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:04 pm UTC

So unless someone believes that Liri purposefully used roleblock the second time to kill himself (and luckily managed to hit the scum performing the NK), Madge cannot be scum unless moody is her partner. Does anyone disagree with the logic?
This means that we should absolutely not lynch Madge today.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:05 pm UTC

Unless of course bessie or jimbob claims a third redirection power.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:07 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Please paraphrase as well what your role-pm says about the priority of your action.

Please.


I was given an example on what happens when I used it, and in it everything else was processed AFTER taking into account my redirect.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:16 pm UTC

So you just assumed that your action has the highest priority and did not actually ask the mods whether you can be roleblocked/whatever?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:21 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:So you just assumed that your action has the highest priority and did not actually ask the mods whether you can be roleblocked/whatever?


My understanding of the role is as stated, but for your sake I have just explicitly asked.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:26 pm UTC

Thank you. Do you agree that Madge can only be scum if you're her partner?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:26 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Thank you. Do you agree that Madge can only be scum if you're her partner?


No.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:32 pm UTC

Please explain your thought process. Why is Madge and jimbob different?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:43 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Please explain your thought process. Why is Madge and jimbob different?


I don't see where you're getting scum!Madge -> scum!me. You seem to be implying in that question that Madge might be cleared in the same way that jimbob was since you've previously been discussing jimbob-me scumteams in that manner.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:05 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:You seem to be implying in that question that Madge might be cleared in the same way that jimbob was since you've previously been discussing jimbob-me scumteams in that manner.
Yes, I'm implying exactly that.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:28 pm UTC

a. I got the response back re my priority. I had to look up the jargon, but it came out the way I had understood it; my redirect happens before the roleblock is processed.

b. N1 there was still some ambiguity as to whether scum had time to modify their action in the 10 minutes they had the knowledge of how my redirect worked before deadline. Trying to do the same for N2 only ends in wine.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:33 pm UTC

So the mod told you unambigously that your action goes before any roleblocks? Or just that it has the highest priority?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:35 pm UTC

Your second point makes no sense.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:54 pm UTC

@jimbob: why are you not claiming already? Do you need bessie's advice for your false-claim? :D

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:04 pm UTC

Sorry, lost track of where we were with claims (and I've been busy at work). I get the abilities of whoever is killed at night for the next day/night only. I got plytho's Hot Cross Bunny abilities N1, and used the commute power N2, because I figured that there was a good chance scum would try to kill me again. I didn't get any powers N2, because I was commuting (mod-confirmed), so I don't have anything to use tonight.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:05 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:So the mod told you unambigously that your action goes before any roleblocks? Or just that it has the highest priority?


I've already said so twice, and with your modding experience I'm sure you know what jargon term LaserGuy used. It's getting to the point where you're looking deliberately obtuse about this.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:19 pm UTC

No, it's getting to a point where you don't want to give me a straight answer.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:20 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:No, it's getting to a point where you don't want to give me a straight answer.


I've already given you a straight answer, you just don't like it.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:27 pm UTC

At this point I don't think you're lying about it but no, you didn't give me the answer I was looking for, just maybe hinted at it.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:29 pm UTC

Let's return to your second point from above. If you're Town and Madge is scum then she risked a lot by targeting Liri because she couldn't have known that you would not use your ability, redirecting the kill to herself. This is exactly the same logic you used to clear jimbob.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Let's return to your second point from above. If you're Town and Madge is scum then she risked a lot by targeting Liri because she couldn't have known that you would not use your ability, redirecting the kill to herself. This is exactly the same logic you used to clear jimbob.


If Madge's partner was bold enough to feel they could bull out a win at 3-person LYLO they might risk it on the same principle as scum bussing. Unfortunately, the only person I feel isn't in this category was the N2 kill. Counter argument to that is I don't know if Madge would be amenable to something like that.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:13 pm UTC

It would have been 4-1 instead of 3-2. If Madge's partner is confident that s/he can win 4-1 anyway why not give themselves even more chance ?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:48 pm UTC

Complete comprehensive team analysis:

Madge + bessie - ruled out by D1 voting. The votes were too close to make bussing make sense.
Madge + Jimbob - ruled out by D1 voting. See above.
Madge + Sabrar - unlikely due to Liri's N2 death, but not impossible. He is between Madge and Sabrar in the player list. If moody is town, then he is presumably not lying. That means that scum did indeed target Liri last night. Scum did not know for certain a) whether moody would use his ability N2, and b) whether he had the ability to change the direction to up instead of down. By a) Madge is unlikely to be scum except with moody. By b) Sabrar is also somewhat unlikely to be scum, except with moody, although scum are more likely to have taken a chance on b) than a), I reckon. Note that if Sabrar and Madge are both scum, they could easily have targeted moody, and hit one of me, moody, or bessie, depending on the nature of redirection, with no risk to themselves. There is a small chance of scum!Sabar/Madge having a special ability that would have allowed the to work around moody's power. Two examples I can think of: 1) scum rolecopped moody N1 and found out that he wasn't able to use his ability two nights in a row (note, I do not expect town!moody to necessarily disclose this); 2) Scum had a delayed roleblock that hit moody (i.e. target N1, activates N2). I would expect this to take priority over moody's ability, since it would hit him N1, not N2.
Madge + moody - plausible, by my knowledge.

Sabrar + bessie - logically plausible, but that would require my two towniest reads to be scum.
Sabrar + Jimbob - unlikely, but possible: would require scum to have deliberately taken an unnecessary risk with self-hitting N1 (e.g. because I am actually bulletproof), or for scum-killer!Sabrar N1 to be redirected by Liri to Jimbob (assuming it happens before moody's redirect), or scum-killer!Jimbob/Sabrar to be redirected by Liri to plytho (assuming it happens after moody's redirect). I am not going to try to analyse this one in depth, but somebody should look at what Liri likely did N1, and see whether it made sense for him to redirect Sabrar or me.
Sabrar + moody - I missed this one off by accident in my previous list. Plausible, by my knowledge.

bessie + Jimbob - unlikely, but possible: see Sabrar + Jimbob, but replace all references to Sabrar with bessie.
bessie + moody - plausible, by my knowledge.

Jimbob + moody - plausible, by known information.

Conclusions: ignoring the unlikely cases, Madge is scum iff moody is scum. I am scum iff moody is scum. The only reasonably possible scum team that doesn't include moody is Sabrar + bessie, and I highly doubt that, so lynching moody based on mostly logic seems reasonable to me. If we are convinced that moody isn't scum, then Sabrar makes the next best bet, I believe, as he is the likeliest person to be involved in a scum team if moody isn't (bessie or Madge FMPOV).

I find it mildly interesting to see that Sabrar didn't bring up possible scum abilities that would have allowed Sabrar/Madge to safely target Liri last night.

Going to take a look back at my earlier analysis post as promised now.

Suggested remaining claim order:
bessie claims ability but not targets (if relevant)
Madge claims targets
bessie claims targets, if relevant.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:51 pm UTC

EBWOP: I think Madge + moody is the likeliest case (it fits my reads and is logically plausible without any big stretches/unrevealed roles etc).
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If we are convinced that moody isn't scum, then Sabrar makes the next best bet, I believe, as he is the likeliest person to be involved in a scum team if moody isn't (bessie or Madge FMPOV).
Also, the last part here should read "(with bessie or Madge FMPOV)"
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:04 pm UTC

@jimbob: I think that if you list out all possibilities (even including yourself) and try to use logic to rule some of them out then you shouldn't apply your reads when commenting on how likely/unlikely they are. There's such a discrepancy in style that way. Just a thought.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:21 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Sabrar wrote:You comment more than once on a scum-pair being possible and conclude that part of your analysis with "Sabrar being scum does not change this." However we know there are only 2 scum (because LYLO would be announced otherwise) so if I'm scum then those pairs become automatically impossible.
Thanks. I'll have to revisit that when I get a chance, although I doubt that will happen before deadline, so it may be irrelevant.
Okay, time to revisit this as promised. The original post referred to here is this post.

First point is that obviously Sabrar is correct and there are only two scum (something which I myself have believed most of the game, but putting it here for clarity), as the game would be over (and it would have been LYLO D2 by the time of the lynch, as already noted).
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Lemma 3 - scum!Liri is partners with flicky. I agree with Sabrar's logic about the forgetting to be in the game comment (it's unlikely to be faked, and it's hard to forget you're in a game when you're getting lots of notifications from your buddy), and along with my own theory about Liri not being coached (at least earlier), this certainly points to scum!Liri being buddies with flicky. Of the remaining players (bessie, Madge, moody), I think Madge would be the least likely to have sent many PMs, making her the most likely of these three. I've never been buddies with any of them, as far as I remember, but from what I recall of bessie in WoT1, she certainly wasn't completely silent, and moody doesn't strike me as being that sort either. I have no real reasoning for Madge on this, but from Lemma 2, it's very unlikely that she's buddies with Liri anyway, so it's irrelevant. FWIW, I think this also holds up even if Sabrar could be scum - I'm certain Sabrar would have been messaging his buddy, and I doubt that he'd have advised such a fake comment.
In this case, the last sentence is assuming no Lemma 0 (i.e. assuming that Sabrar could potentially be scum, but isn't guaranteed to be), Lemma 3 still holds up (i.e. that scum!Liri is partners with flicky). This is because, as noted scum!Sabrar would have been messaging scum-buddy!Liri, so he couldn't have kept forgetting he was in the game.

I'm not seeing a second time when I might have made a mistake, or could have appeared to have made a mistake. It might be in this:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Lemma 5 - town!flicky implies scum!moody. Assuming town!Sabrar, and we accept Lemma 2, then this is logically correct. Only other possibility allowing for scum!Sabrar is Sabrar/bessie, I believe. Of course, this is assuming town!flicky, which isn't proven by any of the above (and hence why we lynch him first).
My point here is that the only way moody isn't scum, given town!flicky, is if Sabrar is buddies with bessie.

So, to summarise, I think the mistake is a misinterpretation - my conclusions weren't "if Sabrar is scum, this does not change", they were "if Sabrar could theoretically be scum, this does not change" i.e. that player A must still be buddies with player B, even if player C(Sabrar) is not definitely town.

Sabrar - if there are any other parts you think I still made a mistake, could you please quote them.

Ninja'ed by Sabrar - that's why I made sure to distinguish where something was logically plausible, from my own reads (i.e. you + bessie).
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:30 am UTC

Hi everyone sorry for the brief posts last night, my husband had a gig and I thought I would get another post in but I was too tired. I’m also trying to get in as many extra hours as I can at work, since the plumber has already been here two days this week. :(

Madge wrote: @Bessie: what the HELL was I meant to do with the power other than ignore it? Like I didn't know what the buttons would do and I was assuming that the button had something to do with its actions and was hoping to be able to figure it out.
You could have withheld, rather than using an unknown power, especially because you didn't know what moody was going to do. What if you have a kill?

Sabrar wrote:On the other hand should anyone reveal a Watcher/Tracker power then Madge should claim first who she targeted and on which night so it might be verified.
Should noone reveal a power that gets a result depending on who targeted whom then Madge shouldn't even reveal her targets in my opinion as it really offers no advantage to us.
I targeted Madge last night with an investigative power. I’m trying to decide if my result conflicts with her claim.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:41 am UTC

I don't really trust you Bessie so I'm reluctant to tell you who I targeted last night.

If you're, say, the tracker, I'm happy for you to list half the players who were alive at the beginning of last night, and in there to put the person you saw me track. Then I'll tell you who my target was. That way, if you're scum you're having to gamble on who I targeted and I can check the veracity of your claim, and if you're town you will be

If you're not tracker and your ability is more complicated because it's SS so of COURSE it'll be complicated, I can do the same, give you a random selection of potential targets (including my actual target), and you can tell me which of those you think I visited/know I couldn't have visited (as the case may be).

Without knowing your power I can't really offer something that will work perfectly, so if there's something along those lines that will allow both of us to claim in a simultaneous way that you can think of, that'd be great.

For the record my power is one action with one target so would show up quite conventionally to trackers/etc. If you saw me do anything weird then either you're lying or it was scum somehow making me do something else / look like I was doing something else.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:12 am UTC

My power tells me what you did, not who you did it to. Now why don’t you reveal your targets, and we’ll see if it checks out?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:39 am UTC

On N2, I targeted one of:

Bessie
Jimbob
Sabrar
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.


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