Secret Santa 2017 Endgame - Merry Christmas

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Sabrar
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:17 am UTC

@Madge, moody: how high do you think is the possibility of a {bessie,jimbob} team right now? What if one of them flips scum, would that influence your read on the other?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Madge » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:00 am UTC

I gotta say that bessie is my top scum pick right now but I don't really know about connecting her to others as I don't tend to think in terms of that. We've got so few people that it's kind of unavoidable though really. Hmm.

I don't see bessie and moody as I don't think she would be supportive of a redirect gambit, which basically requires her to be scum with you or jimbob.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:18 am UTC

@Madge: could you explain why bessie is the most scummy?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:21 am UTC

bessie wrote:Then vote me.
What? How is that a townie reaction?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:10 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Madge, moody: how high do you think is the possibility of a {bessie,jimbob} team right now? What if one of them flips scum, would that influence your read on the other?


The only way jimbob could be scum is if scum saw the post I made 10 minutes before end of D1 and adjusted. Me and thee were the only ones posting in that sliver of time (aside from the deceased), and there's no way to know for sure who was viewing then. I'll give you my scum teams from most likely to least likely

Sabrar-Madge
Sabrar-bessie
Madge-bessie

Sabrar-jimbob
Madge-jimbob
bessie-jimbob

If either of the two you mention flip scum, I'd have to re-evaluate my entire life, as they're my towniest reads.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:13 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Madge wrote:In that case, perhaps, e.g. somitomi could have been given a one-shot cop power and didn't claim it on D2 for obvious reasons.
Could theoretically be true but then he should have phrased it differently and I think he would have.
I disagree. Somitomi said he had nothing to claim. That still allows him to have received something at night, which may not have been useful to reveal at that point.
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Because in a Secret Santa, having a single use of one ability, constrained in when it can be used, seems a little dull. Now that I see that I missed the claim of a N3 ability, I'm less concerned about this.
Why didn't you voice the same concern wrt my ability?
Because I consider a day kill to be more powerful than bessie's claimed ability, plus you've demonstrated that it actually exists as claimed.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I believe that bessie is likely telling the truth about what she has seen, as making up seeing someone use a message ability is a little bit of a weird thing to make up.
This is illogical because we're in LYLO. scum!bessie could easily set up Madge to be mislynched with a lie as there's no way of verifying it and we can't afford the usual "lynch one, if wrong lynch the other" procedure.
If bessie wanted to lie in order to setup Madge for the lynch, I think she would have made up a more definitive claim, say for example, that Madge used a kill N1. That would have forced town to choose between bessie and Madge as the lynch. With how most people had been previously viewing bessie, I think it's fairly likely that Madge would have been lynched in this instance. Furthermore, assuming the lynches are random between the possible options, lying and limiting the lynch to two people would actually increase her own chances of being lynched to 50%, whereas telling the truth leaves a scum lynch as 2/5, better if she and her partner are being town read. So, regardless of it being LYLO, lying isn't automatically the best option.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:However, her belief that moody is town, unless he is scum with me seems to be a bit of a stretch, making a moody/bessie team highly plausible.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@bessie - please could you go back over your case for moody only being scum with me, because I don't agree with it.
Why didn't you bring up post 12 as a reason to challenge this read at either of these points?
I'm not sure I follow why I would have done? bessie looked at a me/moody team in post 12 and came to the conclusion that it was unlikely. In post 14, in response to your Lemma 1 (which explicitly stated that I am scum only if moody is scum), she ruled us out as being scum separately, something I disagree with, because I believe moody can be scum. The two points aren't contradictory - the first one rules out scum!me/scum!moody, whilst the second rules out scum!me/town!moody and town!moody/scum!me.

I too would like to see Madge's explanation for scum!bessie.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:31 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I disagree. Somitomi said he had nothing to claim. That still allows him to have received something at night, which may not have been useful to reveal at that point.
He could have phrased it "I have nothing to claim at the moment." Small change but implies to the sender of the gift that it was received while not telling anything to the rest of us.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:So, regardless of it being LYLO, lying isn't automatically the best option.
True, but it shouldn't be discarded as an option just because of that.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The two points aren't contradictory - the first one rules out scum!me/scum!moody, whilst the second rules out scum!me/town!moody and town!moody/scum!me.
Yes, so bessie should have concluded that both you and moody are town, which she didn't.

All of this is probably irrelevant today as from moody's answer it's likely that I'll be forced to vote him.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:13 pm UTC

I have a reply from the mods to my questions.

To my question as to whether a message could also contain a gift – no comment.
To my question as to what result I would receive if my target was roleblocked – no comment.

I am working on my reads and will have a post up in a little while.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:34 pm UTC

I am legally not allowed to comment.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:23 pm UTC

@moody: given that no new info is forthcoming, is there any way that you'll vote for bessie or jimbob today?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:48 pm UTC

@bessie: should I keep refreshing every minute or do you still need time?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:48 pm UTC

forgot the :D

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:02 pm UTC

I'm hurt. Truly hurt.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:06 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@moody: given that no new info is forthcoming, is there any way that you'll vote for bessie or jimbob today?


jimbob probably not, small chance of bessie (Madge has been being more Madge-like today, which gives her a somewhat less scummy read).
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:18 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I am legally not allowed to comment.
If you doubt my answer you are welcome to ask the mods the same questions.

Sabrar wrote:@moody: given that no new info is forthcoming, is there any way that you'll vote for bessie or jimbob today?
I told you I was busy yesterday, and that I would be working on my reads. Why are you in such a hurry?

Here is where I am on my jimbob read. The format is probably sloppy, as I’ve been working on it in bits and pieces as I have had time, and I’m still only at the bottom of page 17, but Sabrar is acting like an anxious puppy again. :P

Pre post edit, I didn't check to make sure all the links pointed to the right places.

Day 1

Spoiler:
Post 1.
Confirm.

Post 2.
RVS.

Post 3.
Random setup spec, which is reasonable. There is an odd comment about scum having more powerful abilities than town if 8-2; alignments were distributed randomly wrt roles (but could have been balanced). Notes Sabrar’s excitement with starting the game.

Post 4.
Explains that he did consider mod balancing in his setup spec discussion. Sabrar’s playstyle is different than usual.

Post 5.
Question for Sabrar with regards to Sabrar’s goofiness.

Post 6.
Reply to Sabrar with regards to setup and balancing, speculation.

Post 7.
Unvote. Current thoughts. bessie is aggressive and is as usual. Explains town-scum lists to Liri, comments on the forgetting-I-was-in-the-game comment, concludes Liri probably townie. Comments on Madge’s changing-her-meta post, good way for scum to cover any pings. moody is slightly scummy but he plays the same way as town. plytho is a slight town lean. Sabrar is possibly trying to distract from something or trying to draw attention to something, there are flashes of seriousness, he could be indie. somitomi is following along but content is insufficient to make a read. wam is mostly setup spec, and is light with other content, has RL reasons so null. jimbob’s thoughts in this post roughly aligned with my thoughts at that point in the game.

Post 8.
Thoughts on the mid day flavor post, could indicate SK but seems unlikely in a small game. See my reply and comments here. (Note that LaserGuy has since stated that the post in question was just flavor).

Post 9.
Some brief thoughts. This is what stood out to me in this post:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I still don't understand why moody claimed this early. I can't see why town would feel the need to claim this role D1. I'm nervous, because there has been a lot of discussion recently about early claims being auto-treated as town, and so might give scum the idea to try it out as an early gambit.
Insert my usual thoughts regarding early claims here. I think I discussed this later but if needed I can dig up references. Ok, found it, see this.

Post 10.
Question for moody.

Post 11.
Updated reads. bessie is like usual, but notes my needling of other players and lack of reads/ordered list (I agreed with this somewhere). Explains my meta to Liri (a subject I’ve been shying away from this game because reasons and I already confirmed that Liri read previous games so he should already know). Liri needs more opinions too. Madge is winey (for reasons discussed by me and others already). plytho is townie but needs more reads too. Sabrar is still confusing, may be town or indie, may be trying to draw some kind of night action. Replied to Sabrar with regards to moody’s early claim. somitomi still insufficient data but what is there is townie. wam needs some more non-Sabrar content, until then scummy. Town-scum list and a vote for Madge.

Post 12.
Responded to Suzaku’s request for a summary of lynch candidates. It has already been noted by me that I didn’t like that he did this, mostly because I didn’t like the request.

Post 13.
Questions for Liri.

Post 14.
Will post opinion on moody’s power after Liri and somitomi provide their opinions.

Post 15.
Madge and moody unlikely scum team bases on Madge’s stated preference to vote him, asks Sabrar to explain his town Madge read because he wasn’t seeing it (neither was I at this time).

Post 16.
Opinion on moody’s power and usage. moody shouldn’t have claimed, but now that he has, he probably shouldn’t use it, and if he was going to use it he shouldn’t have claimed, but accepts that moody already decided to use his power anyway.

Post 17.
Updated Madge read. Doesn’t like Madge’s reasons for wanting to lynch moody, which is because of his power (I agree). Hmm, this comment stands out to me:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:For all we know, there could be far worse powers out there potentially in the hands of scum, so we could be better off actually trying to lynch anybody except moody.
I need to think about this post in light of the current state of the game. Accepts that Madge’s content within her meta (though she’s supposedly changing her meta this game? jimbob covers this later in this post, Madge may have abandoned the plan). Asks Sabrar for a non meta reason for his town read of Madge (this was a reasonable request).

Post 18.
Madge’s surprise over scum chat reveal may be genuine. Would prefer a Madge lynch, but would unvote to prevent a tie (it is unclear in this post post to whether or not the Madge surprise thing is a factor, or if he just wants to avoid no lynch) .

Post 19.
Prods Liri and Suzaku to vote.

Post 20.
Player time zones (information post).

Post 21.
Reply to Sabrar on surprised Madge inquiry, could be genuine.

Post 22.
Unvotes as promised to prevent a tie.


Day 2

Spoiler:
Post 1.
Dig at Sabrar. Nice start, A+ for style. (Note, Sabrar’s reply earns the same score. :P )

Post 2.
Questions Sabrar’s vote of somitomi, requests reasons (this is a reasonable request), asks for his current stance on Madge.

Post 3.
Questions Sabrar’s vote of Madge, Sabrar’s play is odd. Concludes that if Madge is scum then everyone on her wagon should be clear due to the close vote.

Post 4.
Question for Sabrar (sarcasm?).

Post 5.
Questions moody’s explanation (given here) for why he revealed his ability (note: I need to check if I already commented on this somewhere). Sabrar is still goofy. There is explanation of some game mechanics and gameplay theory for Liri.

Post 6.
Full reads list. Points out that I haven’t said much about jimbob, somitomi, Suzaku, guesses what is probably the correct reason, that I haven’t seen much interesting in their posts (note: I’m reading jimbob in isolation so need to go back through my posts to confirm this). Liri’s content is scummy but he gets a newbie allowance. Notes the D1 Madge votes makes some scum partners unlikely. Concludes that Madge’s uninspiring content could be playing to her meta, her earlier discussed surprise seemed genuine but her content as a whole is still scummy.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Does get a small bonus point for being adjacent to the presumed scum night kill target (i.e. me).
Interesting comment, was he doubting moody’s claim? Continues moody is townie for decent content boosted by a willingness to take the NK. Feels better about Sabrar but would like some explanations for his reads, Sabrar is still a possible indie. somitomi han’t contributed much to scum hunting, he doesn’t have any scum pings from somitomi, but can see Sabrar’s case for indie. Suzaku is lurking, and what he has posted is non-useful/scummy. Votes Suzaku.

Post 7.
Ok with Sabrar’s use of daykill if it is real (as opposed to a ploy), because it fits with Sabrar’s expressed opinions.

Post 8.
Sabrar’s use of day kill is fair, since he may not have another opportunity. The justification is that this may be Sabrar’s only opportunity to use it.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: and he's [Sabrar’s] starting to look townie in many people's eyes

Perhaps, but most players still had Sabrar as scumat this point. Sabrar’s rankings by player at time of his vig shot:
bessie - town
jimbobmacdoodle - marginal town, possible indie
Liri - scumish side of neutral
Madge – town?
moody – scum (ranking of -0.5)
somitomi – scum (assumed, as he was voting for Sabrar)
Suzaku - ? (last comment was on Sabrar’s unusual behavior)

Concludes that Sabrar’s use of power not inherently scummy but not indicative of alignment. Also alignments are randomized so the power itself is not indicative of alignment. Still reads Sabrar as slightly town possible indie. Revotes Suzaku, Liri and bessie’s reads lists are reasonable, prods Sabrar for reasons for Suzaku-moody scum team, questions Liri on Madge.

Post 9.
Some questions for others on possible teams. jimbob’s analysis is Madge-Suzaku most compelling because they are his top scum picks but he hasn’t analyzed pairings, Suzaku-Liri is possible, which would support the theory that Liri doesn’t look like he is being coached.

Post 10.
Any reference to Gojoe discussions is null (note: this is a topic that might be better to discuss after the game). Liri feels defensive, why is Liri not considering all moody teams? (I don’t recall Liri’s analysis right now, look this up later if needed.)

Post 11.
Suzaku/replacement.

Post 12.
Liri is contradicting himself on jimbob/moody reads FoS Liri. Notes Liri following Sabrar’s vote on flicky.

Post 13.
Analysis of Sabrar’s Lemmas. Lemma1, Sabrar’s jimbob/moody pair reasoning is solid regardless of Sabrar’s alignment. Lemma2 , Madge/flicky pair is most likely, Madge with jimbob/bessie/Liri not as likely, disagrees with Sabrar on Madge/moody pair. Adds that Sabrar is unlikely buddies with Madge because of Madge’s surprise post which seemed genuine, and Sabrar would have discussed this with her in chat. Lemma3, Liri/flicky, agrees with the Liri town tell due to scum would receive multiple pms. Adds that Sabrar also unlikely to be partners with Liri, because Sabrar would have messaged him. Lemma4, agrees town flicky implies town Liri but disagrees on town Madge. Lemma5, town flicky implies scum moody is logically correct if Lemma2 is accepted. Adds that Sabrar/flicky unlikely due to Sabrar pushing Suzaku. Analyzes pairs. flicky is still scummiest read.

Post 14.
Sabrar’s ability may be restricted, and the role alone does not guarantee towniness.

Post 15.
Wall of updated reads. bessie is light on content but so are others, bessie has made some solid reads ( I think I already responded to this content, yes, see here).flicky is still probably scum. Liri’s content has contradictions. Madge is feeling scummy for lack of effort. Doesn’t like moody giving Sabrar an auto-town pass for his power, points out contradicting comments in regard to scum teams, moody is still town based on previous analysis but is slipping for lack of current content (not contributing anything to drive the game along). Sabrar’s daykill makes sense and it fits in with the serious bits of his content, doesn’t understand a comment that Sabrar made in regards to a mistake in jimbob’s analysis, asks Sabrar to explain.

Post 16.
Will reply to Sabrar’s jimbob-mistake content when he has time, and it’s near deadline. (note: did I already reply elsewhere to this post? Look up and reply if needed.)

Post 17.
Short reply to flicky re redirect/night kill.


Day 3
Spoiler:
Post 1.
Made claim order suggestion, will think about Sabrar’s theorem re moody.

Post 2.
Questions Sabrar’s claim order suggestion, asks if Sabrar is vanilla, asks Madge why Sabrar/bessie and not bessie/moody, questions Sabrar as to why Sabrar can’t be scum with Madge, as he has been supportive of her the entire game, discusses why Liri may or may not have been the intended NK target,concludes that Madge/moody is the most likely team.

Post 3.
Agrees that moody should claim next.

Post 4.
jimbob’s claim, he gets the abilities of whomever is killed at night for next night only, commuted on N2.

Post 5.
Complete comparative team analysis (skimming for now because of time, come back to this later if necessary).

Post 6.
EBWOP Madge/moody pair is most likely.

Post 7.
Revisiting earlier post at Sabrar’s request. Sabrar correct that there are only two scum or game would be over. jimbob’s Lemma3 analysis includes analysis of possible scum Sabrar. Clarifies Lemma5 analysis, moody is scum or bessie/Sabrar scum.

Post 8.
jimbob will post bessie read later. Possible for bessie and Madge to be town , Madge’s claim might be partial truth, bessie might be holding something back (note that jimbob missed my earlier N3 power claim).

Post 9.
The promised bessie read. This is long and I will analyze it in more depth later if needed, but I’m trying to get a post up. Will reply to this part now:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I disagree with bessie regarding townies not using an unknown power on N1, since I'm pretty sure I would, if I had Madge's power (I ate a random piece of turkey meat last Secret Santa without knowing what it did, and got a cop power - I could have just as easily have died).
I have given this some thought, as I am genuinely surprised that anyone would use an unknown power on N1. That Madge would do this is maybe not as surprising, as I know she doesn’t like being vanilla. Note that this is even more disturbing to me now that Madge has claimed eight choices; it seems more likely that at least one choice does something very bad. Now jimbob claims he would have done the same, using what he did in SS2016 as an example. Well, I don’t really think that is the same thing, in that if something bad was going to happen it would probably have happened to just jimbob. Madge could have used something like a kill on another player. But as I was preparing this post I thought about the note passing in MMM II. I don’t remember if DJ posted in Gojoe or if it was in mod chat, but if I remember correctly DJ was surprised that everyone that received an anonymous note accepted the meeting. So now I am reevaluating from the point of view that perhaps what I think is the most obvious decision is not actually the view shared by everyone, or maybe by anyone.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: @bessie - please could you go back over your case for moody only being scum with me, because I don't agree with it. Also, are you seriously saying that you wouldn't have used Madge's power in her shoes on N1? What about N2?


Will work on the first question in a separate post.

Will come back to post 9 and anything following it later.


Ninja'd.
Sabrar wrote:I'm hurt. Truly hurt.
About what????

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:25 pm UTC

bessie wrote:If you doubt my answer you are welcome to ask the mods the same questions.
Not that.

bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@moody: given that no new info is forthcoming, is there any way that you'll vote for bessie or jimbob today?
I told you I was busy yesterday, and that I would be working on my reads. Why are you in such a hurry?
No hurry, I wanted to see where things are. Also why are you again answering questions not addressed to you?

bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I'm hurt. Truly hurt.
About what????
Joke. Thought you'd reply sooner.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:38 pm UTC

I don't have time to do a complete re-read of Madge, Sabrar and moody, so this will just be a continuation of my reads as with my previous ones. I might get a bit more time tomorrow, but after that, my father is visiting until deadline, so I doubt I'll have any further time to do them afterwards.

Madge (previous read was feeling scummy, 3rd scummiest in ordered list):
Spoiler:
Brief post on morning (my time) of deadline day to outline her reads list. Has moody and me towniest, Sabrar likely town, bessie unsure due to meta, flicky support killing due to information potential, suspicious of Liri. Would vote flicky except for L-1. D3, teams are me and moody, or Sabrar and bessie. Suggests claim order, offers to claim wherever, including first. Claim might help scum, won't give useful information. SaBe are more suspicious for being helpful and not being dead?! Accepts my point about bessie/moody being an option, and has no issue with any of the suggested pairs. Considers value of going through teams and looking for evidence. Claims might help, but maybe not. Restates belief in Sabrar/bessie team, because she likes my posts and moody seems to be doing well. Originally considers me claiming last, then changes her mind and suggests moody last, because it can mess up others claims. Reiterates her information would be useless to town. Claims role. Explains further reluctance to claim targets. Disagrees with Sabrar over claim order. Thinks likely her buttons were modified. Claims to have breadcrumbed one of her buttons targets (but backtracks on this later). Didn't get any results from using the buttons. Wants to know from bessie what she should have done instead of using her power. Would like town to know who she targeted for when she flips. Points to role breadcrumb. Doesn't trust bessie, reluctant to say who she targeted. Suggests random selection of possible targets. Claims targeted Sabrar N1, therefore hitting somitomi. Further discussion about her claim. Thinks Sabrar knows more than he's letting on. Used :?: :idea: button. Thought it would be some sort of investigative ability. Thought question mark and lightbulb could indicate investigation. Bessie is top scum pick. Doesn't know about connecting her to others. Doesn't think bessie and moody, as she wouldn't be supportive of a redirect gambit.
Madge's D3 play is not great at all, especially early on, in my opinion. She considers only a very limited subset of the possible teams. Her reasons for finding Sabrar/bessie as the likeliest scum team are weird at best - being helpful is scummy?! Also the not-being-dead should concern her more about me and moody, her previous two towniest reads, I'd have thought? A lot of what she says as possible courses of action have caveats and she doesn't actually do them herself (e.g. looking at teams). Her ignoring of other players' opinions on the claim order is irritating too. I'm surprised that she hasn't yet claimed her N2 target, despite saying she thinks it's useful in case she flips. I also find it weird what she said about bessie/moody not being a team. Overall, feels pretty scummy, and if forced to guess, reading Madge's posts alone, I feel like her buddy would be moody (towniest read, and seems to be focused on bessie mostly, and a little on Sabrar). The one thing in her favour, FMPOV, is her asking about whether it was LYLO. I feel like scum would be acutely aware if it were. That being said, with no scum flips so far, how would it not be LYLO??

@Madge - I don't think you ever addressed the point made about you suggesting Sabrar/bessie team being based on them being helpful. Please go back and do so.
Also, why does them not being dead make them any more suspicious than the other still living players?
Also, why have you not claimed your N2 action yet?
Also, why do you think bessie wouldn't support a redirection gambit with moody? What sort of gambit are you thinking of?

moody (previously town, but slipped due to not doing anything to drive forwards the game):
Spoiler:
Sabrar being town backed up also by Sabrar's case. Changes his opinion sharply at the start of D3, due to Sabrar theorising him being scum. Proposes claim order that is the same as mine, but with Sabrar first. Thinks Sabrar/Madge is the scum team. Claims not to have redirected N2. Other actions would be processed after his. Disagrees that Madge can only be partners with him. Disagrees with Sabrar about whether he gave him a straight answer. Considers possibilities about how the kill does not clear Madge N2. Tries to sum up Madge's claim and related discussion. Rules me out as scum, unless scum saw the last minute post. Sabrar/Madge likeliest scum team. Has me and bessie as towniest reads.
I find it interesting how quickly moody changes his mind on Sabrar being town between his last post D2 and his first one D3. The impression I got was that Sabrar was one of his townier reads before and now is his scummiest. I think the big conversation with Sabrar about the mod-questions is pretty much a null tell. I think some of his comments in his latest post are not well-thought through (i.e. scum could easily have seen his post in those 10 minutes, especially given the propensity of certain game members to rely on email notifications for posts they created. None of this is massively scummy to me, but at the same time, moody seems like the likeliest person to be a scum-buddy with any of the other three players, the way I see it. Of the three possible combinations here, I think the moody/Sabrar one is the least likely, due to the day's interactions.

Sabrar (previously probably town):
Spoiler:
Explains his mistake-observation regarding my analysis - indicates paying lots of attention to the details. Confused by Liri's logic re. moody being town (me too). Thinks bessie and I are town, suspicious of everyone else, with moody the least bad. Hammers flicky. D3 provides a simplified and updated set of lemmas concluding moody is scum. Counter-proposes a claim order, with moody first, bessie last. Thinks moody should be aware that Sabrar + Madge unlikely. Has no meta-read on me, explains his reasons for believing town!Madge as "player-list order". Claims vanilla now. Hates Madge's claim. Wants moody to claim before me or bessie, due to inconsistent behaviour over me. Asks me to revisit the mistakes in my analysis. Explains his thoughts for what Madge should reveal, forgetting she might die. Believes Madge cannot be scum except with moody. Big conversation with moody re. Madge's townieness versus mine and how his role interacts with roleblockers. Prods me for my claim. Thinks unlikely that Madge would have risked getting herself killed by killing Liri. Asks bessie if she had more to claim. Can't see how bessie and Madge's claims can both be true. Brings up somitomi saying he had nothing to claim, and wants to YOLO-vote bessie. Asks bessie about details of her role. Goes through different possibilities for bessie vs Madge and concludes that there's not information to decide. Reread D1 and confirms Madge cannot be buddies with bessie or I. Asks for analyses from me and bessie of each other. Moody's vote on Madge super-convenient timing, could easily be Madge's scum-buddy. Asks moody to ask about role-interactions. Me/bessie is nightmare scenario, some minor things bugging him about it. Considering voting moody by PoE, if can be convinced we aren't scum. Brings up a few issues he had with my bessie-analysis. Asks Madge and moody about me and bessie. Doesn't like bessie's reaction to his YOLO-vote comment. Responds to my responses to his comments about my analysis of bessie. Points out that bessie should have concluded that both moody and I are town. Probably will be forced to vote moody. Asks moody whether he'll ever consider voting bessie or me.
My general feel from reading Sabrar's D3 play is that he is genuinely trying to figure out the game. I know scum!Sabrar puts quite a bit of effort into play, so it isn't definitive, but I would consider it a strong-town tell from anybody else. My main issue with him is that he obviously has several ideas running around his head, but he seems to not be expressing any of them, in favour of asking lots of questions. As noted above, his big conversation with moody makes me feel like he isn't scum with moody. I'm less convinced about any other interactions. Still, I think he's my towniest read at the moment. Whilst I don't think it's inconceivable that he and Madge figured out a way around moody's redirect to allow them to safely kill Liri, my instinct says that neither of them have any ability that would have allowed them to bypass moody's redirect somehow.

Scum buddy teams (FMPOV), from most to least likely:
moody + Madge - very likely - this one makes the most sense in my view, due mostly to the way Madge is behaving towards moody. Also it fits with the known facts about last night's kill.
moody + bessie - reasonably likely - mostly here by process of elimination. Moody has said very little about bessie, except that she's one of his towniest reads. Bessie only making moody scum with me also is a convenient way of giving moody a free-pass, if I flip before him, and a noose around my neck if he flips before me.
Madge + Sabrar - fairly unlikely - it takes something weird to have had to have happened N1 to allow them to safely ignore moody's redirect. It's possible they took a gamble that he wouldn't (couldn't?) have used the redirect N2 anyway, given he used it N1, and/or they had some kind of protection to make it safe for them to do so.
moody + Sabrar - unlikely - Sabrar's interaction with moody about his ability and read on Madge feel like they aren't staged, and I'm pretty sure Sabrar would not have bothered defending Madge quite so much if buddies with moody.
Sabrar + bessie - unlikely - Sabrar has been too bessie focused today. Scum!Sabrar had no need to focus on her so much, and could easily have kept his focus elsewhere.
Madge + bessie - ruled out by bessie's D1 vote

I think based on the above, I'm pretty happy with lynching moody. He features in my two top scum-teams, and I don't think any of the others make much sense.

@moody - show me why you aren't scum-buddies with Madge or bessie.

Several ninjas. Also, I'm aware that I owe Sabrar a response on a few things. Going to go and look at those shortly.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:50 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:My main issue with him is that he obviously has several ideas running around his head, but he seems to not be expressing any of them, in favour of asking lots of questions.
Exactly. Keep alternating between 3 main avenues and I have no idea which is best.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:54 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I find it interesting how quickly moody changes his mind on Sabrar being town between his last post D2 and his first one D3. The impression I got was that Sabrar was one of his townier reads before and now is his scummiest.


Absolutely right here. What happened was that Sabrar's lemma 0 fell through when everything else in this post looked good but flicky still flipped town. You may have noticed that the other prime scum team in that post is you and I, which I assume fypov is ludicrous.

@moody - show me why you aren't scum-buddies with Madge or bessie.


Main thing I can point to re me-Madge is me voting for her post somi going boom D2 immediately after votes were reset and everyone could rethink wagons, plus my overall positioning of her as consistently in my bottom two. I don't usually distance to that much of a degree, usually something in the 0 to -2 range whereas I had her as low as -4. On bessie, I don't think I can really point anything out on that. She's liked me, I've liked her, it's all really meet-cute.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:00 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Main thing I can point to re me-Madge is me voting for her post somi going boom D2 immediately after votes were reset and everyone could rethink wagons
Lie. You were only notified that votals are reset after you voted Madge. Suzaku had 3 votes already when you voted.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:18 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Main thing I can point to re me-Madge is me voting for her post somi going boom D2 immediately after votes were reset and everyone could rethink wagons
Lie. You were only notified that votals are reset after you voted Madge. Suzaku had 3 votes already when you voted.


So you're saying that in order to honestly have been Madge instead of distancing, I should have been voting her all along? Also, doesn't that invalidate some of your reasoning in lemma 2 where you say me and Madge aren't likely to be scummates because of this? That's what led to us mislynching flicky.

Vote: Sabrar

Now you can vote for me with a clean conscience.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:26 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm not seeing a second time when I might have made a mistake, or could have appeared to have made a mistake.
It is wrt Lemma1 from where I actually copied your comment.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Lemma 1 - If I am scum, so is moody. I think this looks okay from my slightly biased perspective. Given that it's Secret Santa, who knows what messing about there is with the roles, but from what we know at least, it's solid. Sabrar being scum does not change this.
Okay, despite having read my analysis two or three times to try and find the exact quote, I somehow missed it! Thanks for quoting it. The comment at the end there was intend to read the same as I mentioned in the later lemmas - i.e. that you POTENTIALLY being scum doesn't affect that if I am scum, so is moody, looking at it from a logical POV. I just missed out the potentially bit by accident.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I disagree. Somitomi said he had nothing to claim. That still allows him to have received something at night, which may not have been useful to reveal at that point.
He could have phrased it "I have nothing to claim at the moment." Small change but implies to the sender of the gift that it was received while not telling anything to the rest of us.
A fair comment, but I'm not convinced that somitomi would have thought of that, so I don't think we can read too much into that phrase.[/quote]

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:So, regardless of it being LYLO, lying isn't automatically the best option.
True, but it shouldn't be discarded as an option just because of that.
[/quote]I don't think I'm completely discarding it, but I think it's unlikely, due to the nature of the supposed lie. I don't think we've got enough evidence from the claims one way or another to decide unfortunately.
bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Does get a small bonus point for being adjacent to the presumed scum night kill target (i.e. me).

Interesting comment, was he doubting moody’s claim?
Until moody's 10-minutes-before-deadline post, there was no indication as to exactly how moody would redirect people, but he had said it was predictable, so I figured that scum would think the same as I, i.e. that the redirection would be either one up or one down (possibly under moody's control as to the direction, too), and would therefore avoid targeting somebody next to one of them.

Ninja'ed by a vote! @moody - you do realise we are at LYLO, don't you? Are you certain Sabrar is scum? He's reading as pretty townie to me.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:28 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Ninja'ed by a vote! @moody - you do realise we are at LYLO, don't you? Are you certain Sabrar is scum? He's reading as pretty townie to me.


North of 80%.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:28 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:So you're saying that in order to honestly have been Madge instead of distancing, I should have been voting her all along?
I'm not saying that. I'm saying that you lied and you have seem to have no defense for it.

moody7277 wrote:Also, doesn't that invalidate some of your reasoning in lemma 2 where you say me and Madge aren't likely to be scummates because of this? That's what led to us mislynching flicky.
That part was one of the most uncertain ones and actually it wasn't needed at all for the end-conclusion.

moody7277 wrote:Now you can vote for me with a clean conscience.
Thank you.

Vote: moody7277

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:29 pm UTC

@jimbob: if you're scum with bessie just get her in here and end this.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:31 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:North of 80%.
I'm 95%. :)

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: if you're scum with bessie just get her in here and end this.
Okay, I think she should be here about now:

Vote: moody
...
Unvote


Not going to give scum such an easy option, in case I'm wrong at this point. Also as I'm writing this, I got paranoid that scum!Sabrar might have a double vote and I would have actually accidentally hammered moody with the above!

Moody basically confirmed himself as scum in my eyes with such a vote only halfway through LYLO day, but I'm willing to give him some more time to convince me that Sabrar is scum.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:44 pm UTC

Second hidden double vote + day-vig? Paranoid much? :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:47 pm UTC

I'm here to chat for another hour or so. Monday is very busy at work and I probably die tonight anyway. Current guess is moody+bessie but not by a large margin.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:53 pm UTC

Gosh darn it I disappear for a short time…

Reading now. This post is just to assure everyone that I do not intend to quick vote.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:54 pm UTC

@jimbob: quick, post something.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Second hidden double vote + day-vig? Paranoid much? :lol: :lol: :lol:
Maybe Madge targeted you N2 and gave you it? But yes, this is Secret Santa. I think being paranoid about player abilities is perfectly reasonable :lol:

bessie not voting would theoretically rule out Madge + bessie, but a) I doubt Madge is up yet to co-ordinate with, and b) if those two are scum buddies, I'll will find a haberdasher so that he can make me a hat to eat.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:58 pm UTC

EBWOP: Also, I just remembered that naive silversmith role you gave me in Trial of the Pariahs (more evidence for paranoia). I still feel slightly bitter about that :P
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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:00 pm UTC

Nice.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:EBWOP: Also, I just remembered that naive silversmith role you gave me in Trial of the Pariahs (more evidence for paranoia). I still feel slightly bitter about that :P
Sorry. :oops:

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:01 pm UTC

@moody: don't you want to comment why you lied?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:08 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@moody: don't you want to comment why you lied?


I object to the characterization of that as a lie. You want to point out that the votals at the time of you killing somi showed a lurker wagon was well along (L-1 by your count) fine. Calling it a mistake would let other people decide whether my intentions with that were honest. You calling a lie sounds to me like railroading a mislynch.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:13 pm UTC

It was L-2 at that point but that's not the point. You must have looked it up to answer jimbob's question. The 2 relevant posts are on different pages. It doesn't feel like an honest mistake.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:14 pm UTC

Replies to P18 content I have missed. Pre post edit, I’m getting ninja’d so much that I’m just going to make short posts as I go along instead of trying to get completely caught up in a single post.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Then vote me.
What? How is that a townie reaction?
It’s a passive-aggressive bessie reaction. :P Town you wouldn’t throw up a vote so early in LYLO without much careful thought, because scum could quick hammer.

moody7277 wrote:The only way jimbob could be scum is if scum saw the post I made 10 minutes before end of D1 and adjusted. Me and thee were the only ones posting in that sliver of time (aside from the deceased), and there's no way to know for sure who was viewing then.
Note: Quick check, where was I at deadline? Deadline was at Dec 7 9:00am PST (my time). My final D1 post was at Dec 6 9:15pm PST. Deadline fell at working hours for me, and I don’t usually play at work, but skimming the thread I think I would have at least checked the thread around deadline because of the close votals.

Ha ha, checked my journal. That was the morning The-World’s-Smartest-Dog* fell in the swimming pool while trying to retrieve a toy, and scraped up his leg as he was attempting to climb out. I can’t believe I’ve had TWO Labrador Retrievers that are afraid of the water. They’re fricking water dogs!
*not his actual title

Note that I already gave my opinion on the likelihood of everyone being on line at deadline here.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I disagree. Somitomi said he had nothing to claim. That still allows him to have received something at night, which may not have been useful to reveal at that point.
He could have phrased it "I have nothing to claim at the moment." Small change but implies to the sender of the gift that it was received while not telling anything to the rest of us.
somitomi is a newbie, he isn’t as experienced as both of you in leaving subtle hints. I’ll reread his D2 content if I have time, but honestly I’m going to be super pressed for time this week and reading the remaining players will be priority.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby bessie » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:49 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:jimbob probably not, small chance of bessie (Madge has been being more Madge-like today, which gives her a somewhat less scummy read).
Please explain what you mean by more Madge-like and how that makes her less scummy.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:If you doubt my answer you are welcome to ask the mods the same questions.
Not that.
Will come back to this, I need to dig through my posts and find where I missed a question I was supposed to ask the mods, because I don’t recall it right now.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@moody: given that no new info is forthcoming, is there any way that you'll vote for bessie or jimbob today?
I told you I was busy yesterday, and that I would be working on my reads. Why are you in such a hurry?
No hurry, I wanted to see where things are. Also why are you again answering questions not addressed to you?
I thought this was poke at me for not posting content fast enough for you.
Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I'm hurt. Truly hurt.
About what????
Joke. Thought you'd reply sooner.
See why?

Will come back to jimbob’s latest Madge/moody/Sabrar reads.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Second hidden double vote + day-vig? Paranoid much? :lol: :lol: :lol:
Maybe Madge targeted you N2 and gave you it? But yes, this is Secret Santa. I think being paranoid about player abilities is perfectly reasonable :lol:
Agree with this. There is no reason to believe that all powers are reasonable, or equal, or even balanced. And I think it’s time Madge claims who she targeted N2.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 3 - The Last Stand

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:53 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Will come back to this, I need to dig through my posts and find where I missed a question I was supposed to ask the mods, because I don’t recall it right now.
Don't. Comment was not addressed to you despite appearances.

bessie wrote:I thought this was poke at me for not posting content fast enough for you.
Absolutely not, was referring to no new info from claims and ability-interactions.


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