Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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bessie
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:35 pm UTC

Madge wrote:What are you going to say when I flip town? :roll:
Why do you think you're going to be lynched today?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:42 pm UTC

bessie wrote:I don’t like how jimbob and LaserGuy have been pushing PW voters= confirmed town.
And what would this imply about them? If they're scum then the PW voters are town.
bessie wrote:Also, why did you selectively quote me?
The bit I left out was logic that I understood. I wanted to be clear which bit I wanted clarification on.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:44 pm UTC

I don't particularly though peoples' lists aren't filling me with confidence.

I am going to flip town sooner or later though, which is what i meant. Either if town takes care of me sometime, or if scum kills me, or if we get to the end of the game and my alignment is revealed that way. Either way you're going to have to eat your humble pie.

I'm not sure there's much I can do to get people to let me live, at least not without drastically changing my playstyle (which in itself would be suspicious). At this point I basically have to get lucky and notice something scummy nobody else notices, or be instrumental on a wagon, or something. And I'm trying, I'm thinking, but I am not full of hope :/
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:46 pm UTC

For the record, I don't consider everyone behind me on the PW wagon to be auto-town on that alone.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:56 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:This is obviously untrue because scum would realize that town would realize this as well,
I disagree. Scum has ab ovo the correct pov to think about this, town does not.
But you thought of it. Therefore, you're scum?
Nope, I'm just good with game theory.
And scum could never expect you -- or me, or anybody else -- to be good with game theory? I don't understand why you're still arguing this. At this point, can't you just admit that your strategy and reads are flawed and move on?

Sabrar wrote:And then PW is immediately contradicted by flicky who reminds PW that they even played together. Talk me through the evolution of this particular interaction after they talked in scum-chat.
Point taken, although I never claimed that they cleared every detail of PW's post beforehand. It's actually a neat fake we're-not-in-scumchat-together slip too if it's not accidental, although I suppose that's stretching it a little thin.

Sabrar wrote:Is this your only reply to my post?
Do you actually have any other questions for me? Accusing me of fitting your posts to a "preconceived narrative" doesn't exactly improve my opinion of you, if that is what you're after.

somitomi wrote:If you're referring to the day chat/night chat question, flicky didn't misunderstand anything there.
Correct, my bad. I just can't keep this game in my head anymore. Anyway, this doesn't relate to the main point of that argument.

bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I think this is Crossover!LaserGuy
I think this is Shakespeare!LaserGuy.
I'm absolutely not going to read these games. Can you please give a quick rundown of the relevant parts of LaserGuy's play there? I think I get the gist of it from your attacks as they relate to his play in this game, but I want to understand your meta reason as well.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:57 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
bessie wrote:I don’t like how jimbob and LaserGuy have been pushing PW voters= confirmed town.
And what would this imply about them? If they're scum then the PW voters are town.

It would imply that they are attempting to narrow the lynch pool. Non PW voters (current players):

cemper
LaserGuy
Madge
bessie
jimbobmacdoodle

Note that jimbobmacdoodle almost immediately found an excuse to eliminate LaserGuy.

LaserGuy’s lynch order:
LaserGuy wrote:bessie > Madge > cemper > jimbob



Madge wrote:I'm not sure there's much I can do to get people to let me live, at least not without drastically changing my playstyle (which in itself would be suspicious). At this point I basically have to get lucky and notice something scummy nobody else notices, or be instrumental on a wagon, or something. And I'm trying, I'm thinking, but I am not full of hope :/

Interesting how you didn’t even think of adding to your list of reasons the actual reason town let you live.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:11 am UTC

bessie wrote:It would imply that they are attempting to narrow the lynch pool.
Maybe I'm being stupid, but I don't see how eliminating half the players in the game from the lynch pool is beneficial to scum, if all of the players eliminated are townie. They'd be preventing themselves from jumping on a wagon against those people, if one happens to form among genuine townies.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:39 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Did you vote for Madge to provoke a reaction or because you thought it was the best chance of not lynching flicky?

The latter.

Alright, so, that seems weird. Because voting PW seemed obviously the best chance of not lynching Flicky. So please explain your thought process in as much detail as possible.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:42 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@Cemper: Have you ever played in a game where scum had day chat before?
I actually don't recall. Is there a specific reason you're asking?
Because it seems really weird that you thought day chat meant scum can't chat at night.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:53 am UTC

bessie wrote:It would imply that they are attempting to narrow the lynch pool. Non PW voters (current players):

cemper
LaserGuy
Madge
bessie
jimbobmacdoodle

Hey, you figured out how I picked the people who I wanted to see lists from. I wanted to see if they would try to widen the pool or not. FMPOV this pool obviously contains both scum and if there is a PR in there we almost can't lose. It's interesting to see who is fighting this inevitability and who is embracing it.

About the list thing, I was asking for updated lists based on the interesting results of the lynch, but I can see how the result wasn't new info to you if you were that convinced PW was scum then his flip isn't changing your list. The aggressive means you didn't see my POV very well and I'm not sure what to make of that.

Since there was more resistance to lynching Madge then lynching PW, why not push PWs lunch first to prove to everyone that you were right, then use that momentum to lynch Madge the next day?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:54 am UTC

Madge wrote:I
I'm not sure there's much I can do to get people to let me live, at least not without drastically changing my playstyle (which in itself would be suspicious).

An updated naughty list would be a great start.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:23 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:I'm absolutely not going to read these games. Can you please give a quick rundown of the relevant parts of LaserGuy's play there? I think I get the gist of it from your attacks as they relate to his play in this game, but I want to understand your meta reason as well.


Sabrar wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I think this is Crossover!LaserGuy
Context for those of us that don't want to read through another game?
Town with bad reads.

Shakespeare LaserGuy: Scum attacking me by trying to tie me to a newbie scum that I was trying to help out, see my post here (check spoiler).

flicky1991 wrote:Maybe I'm being stupid, but I don't see how eliminating half the players in the game from the lynch pool is beneficial to scum, if all of the players eliminated are townie. They'd be preventing themselves from jumping on a wagon against those people, if one happens to form among genuine townies.
It is beneficial to scum to narrow the pool to a pool that doesn’t contain scum (see also: BoomFrog).

And flicky, this is not a stupid question, and I don’t think you are being stupid at all, and I hope that the um, err, aggression that some more um err experienced players (um err me :oops: ) have displayed in this game hasn't made you feel that way.

Blanket apology to all, I will calm down. :(

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:15 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:Do you actually have any other questions for me?
Currently not.
cemper93 wrote:Accusing me of fitting your posts to a "preconceived narrative" doesn't exactly improve my opinion of you, if that is what you're after.
No, I'm pretty sure you won't change your opinion.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:15 am UTC

EBWOP
cemper93 wrote:At this point, can't you just admit that your strategy and reads are flawed and move on?
Nope. Never.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:38 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Alright, so, that seems weird. Because voting PW seemed obviously the best chance of not lynching Flicky. So please explain your thought process in as much detail as possible.
Out of the 2 options you asked me it fit the actual answer the best. I was confident in you + Madge being scum, you moving to PW meant he was a bad choice as well. I didn't think we would get the votes anyway.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:12 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:cemper
LaserGuy
Madge
bessie
jimbobmacdoodle

FMPOV this pool obviously contains both scum and if there is a PR in there we almost can't lose. It's interesting to see who is fighting this inevitability and who is embracing it.

Seeing that you're sure Madge is town we would win automatically by PoE. Why the doubt?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:45 am UTC

Stream-of-consciousness BoomFrog read

Early content, woof lean.

Hmm, revisiting this post:
BoomFrog wrote:
moody7277 wrote:
somitomi wrote:How many day vigilantes are in this game?

Sadly, none. One does wonder if this might slide into the "no cryptogrpahy" rule though. :wink:

Unvote

@Bessie: I interpreted this as Moody thinking somitomi was making a joke about me and PW (which he was) and then half-joking that the woofs and meows counted as a code.
How did you catch a joke reference I missed (silly behavior=vigilante) from a game that I played and you didn’t? Especially since you tried to imply in this post that you didn’t follow the game very closely? (Note: more on this below, I believe BoomFrog was following that game. )

Still reading BoomFrog as woof on D1 until this post:
BoomFrog wrote: @Sabrar: Do you really need more? I don't.
This is where I started leaning woof woof on BoomFrog, not as just for his quick acceptance of Madge’s claim, but more for calling out Sabrar for not immediately doing the same.


The Peaceful Whale bus would be a bit surprising, but it could be an attempt to save flicky, or Madge if he thought the wagon might swing back to her. Or it could just be a bus, because there was a chance that Peaceful Whale would accidentally slip and reveal the scum team. Or maybe he already did.

BoomFrog wrote: The secret townie club.
BoomFrog is too sure of this his Madge read. As pointed out already by me, his Secret Townie Club in Shakespeare contained only 1/3 town.

BoomFrog wrote: Obviously, I mean an updated list that incorporates the vast amount of new information we have.
What vast amounts of new information? Peaceful Whale flipped scum, which did not surprise me, Vicarin flipped town which did not surprise me (and before you say it, I am referring to the flip, not the kill), and no one claimed a night result. (Note: I have more on this below.)

I want to make note of this post because it has stuck in my mind.
bessie wrote: So BoomFrog, now that Peaceful Whale’s scum, what do you think of him not considering the “fact” that you are town in his stream of consciousness post?
BoomFrog wrote: I'd say I confirmed what I already knew, PW is really hard to read. Now that you made me really stop and think about it, he is self-conscious and over-corrects more often then he is ignorant. This evidence was only a town lean anyway, it obviously didn't stop me from supporting his lynch, when the scummier-seeming candidates were eliminated.
There is something unsatisfying about BoomFrog’s answer, but nothing I can definitively point to.

Reference this post:
BoomFrog wrote:PoE. It's either him or JimBob or Bessie, and I'm town lean on JimBob except for him being way too confident that LaserGuy is town. Bessie seems slightly scummy except for how hard she attacked PW. Did she distance hard in Santa?
Interesting, setting yourself up to “compromise” lynch me? And I already pointed out your suspicious question of Sabrar here:
bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: Bessie seems slightly scummy except for how hard she attacked PW. Did she distance hard in Santa?
Why ask Sabrar? Why not look it up yourself. You were following the game for at least a while, and closely enough to make a read. Or did you want Sabrar to reread Secret Santa for some reason?
Are you going to answer that question?

BoomFrog wrote: @Cemper: Have you ever played in a game where scum had day chat before?
Misnomer’s Smalltown PYP. Or did you already know that? Spoiler: bessie was scum.

BoomFrog wrote: About the list thing, I was asking for updated lists based on the interesting results of the lynch, but I can see how the result wasn't new info to you if you were that convinced PW was scum then his flip isn't changing your list. The aggressive means you didn't see my POV very well and I'm not sure what to make of that.
Already conveniently addressed in the same post that we are discussing now (where I replied that did not update my town-scum):
bessie wrote: I will need to take a look at the end of day voting more closely, the wagon switched after I left for work.

Interesting that you are calling me out for not immediately updating my list and recognizing you as town based upon your end of D1 antics and for not accepting your point of view without question.

BoomFrog wrote:Since there was more resistance to lynching Madge then lynching PW, why not push PWs lunch first to prove to everyone that you were right, then use that momentum to lynch Madge the next day?
Interesting, why do you think that the most important thing to me would be proving that I am right?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:51 am UTC

@bessie: I would like your opinion on cemper (putting aside the fact that he's not in any of the scum-teams you proposed).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:14 am UTC

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I don't think Peaceful Whale was around in any game where you've actually did this as Town, and in Secret Santa it was barely mentioned. Yes, he admitted to copying people that he found townie... that's why I find this so interesting. There isn't really a good reason for him to have chosen this particular aspect of your meta as something to copy, rather than something more obviously townie-looking, like say, your tunneling or general posting style. I think it's more likely that rather than him copying you from Secret Santa, a well meaning scumbuddy was trying to give him advice in scumchat,


Peaceful Whale has been reading old games.


Interesting coincidence that he happened to be reading one of your scum games. Peaceful Whale doesn't even remember the games he's played very well. In the same post he doesn't remember that flicky has played before despite the fact that PW and flicky have played together in Fridge mafia and flicky subbed into Secret Santa where PW was a mod. Again, I think it's more likely that this was information fed to him by a buddy.

I think you’re misreading the end of Refrigerator. There was some PoE, but scumslips were easier to find in late game analysis.


Possible. It's been awhile since I looked at that game. My memory is that until he hammered me in D2, he was pretty much above suspicion.

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Talk to me about this. You spent most of D1 implicitly reading PW as scum and using that read to motivate your scumreads on Madge/somitomi. Why were you so busy hunting for his buddies? If you had such a strong scumread on PW, why didn't you ever vote for him?


Already answered, and quoted and commented on by you so I know you read it:
bessie wrote:My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later. Also, I don’t think that Peaceful Whale would be as dangerous to leave alive as say, scum!Madge.


You were quite happy to push for his lynch D1 in other games. What's change in your evaluation since then?

bessie wrote:Interesting. Why do you think the only reason to bus a scum partner would be for town cred?


Because that's what bussing is for.

bessie wrote:The Peaceful Whale bus would be a bit surprising, but it could be an attempt to save flicky, or Madge if he thought the wagon might swing back to her. Or it could just be a bus, because there was a chance that Peaceful Whale would accidentally slip and reveal the scum team. Or maybe he already did.


I agree this could have been an attempt to save flicky. Madge was not in any serious danger... simply doing nothing would have likely saved her. On the other hand, if PW had accidentally slipped and revealed his buddies, lynching him would be the worst possible option for mafia since it would confirm that PW is scum and the slip was genuine. There's generally a certain level of scum ruthlessness regarding hard bussing buddies underpinning a lot of this argument that is not really consistent with my experience on this site for how scumteams tend to operate.

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:More generally, why haven't you ever ask me questions about my reads this game? I was surprised that you didn't find it suspicious/unusual/noteworthy that I've mostly been posting player alignment reads without commentary.


I don’t sit here all day and respond to content as it is posted. Usually by the time I get home and start responding, there has already been quite a bit of back-and-forth between players. If I didn’t comment on anything you said specifically, perhaps it was because someone else already had.


Hmm... I will think about this. Though I'm curious to note that you apparently didn't have an opinion on me and BoomFrog vs. Sabrar on page 4 and following, even when I tried to engage you. You never did get back to me here, I don't think.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:30 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Which players in this game do you think would be likely to hard bus a relatively newbie buddy for townie credit an hour before deadline?
The list is extremely short and it contains BoomFrog.


I tentatively agree that BoomFrog is capable of this. I don't know about Hari Seldon one way or the other. The problem I have with BoomFrog bussing in this context is that I have a very difficult time believing that BF would have gone ahead with his "woof" gambit with PW as a buddy. I don't think he would have trusted PW to behave naturally and I don't think he would have intentionally made himself a liability to his newbie partner(s).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:36 am UTC

I think BoomFrog decided to woof before receiving his role-pm and wouldn't have altered his decision either way.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:41 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I think BoomFrog decided to woof before receiving his role-pm and wouldn't have altered his decision either way.


Who are you bottom four right now?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:47 am UTC

Currently it's LaserGuy = cemper > Madge = BoomFrog

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:06 am UTC

bessie wrote:It is beneficial to scum to narrow the pool to a pool that doesn’t contain scum (see also: BoomFrog).
Right, but in the post that started the conversation, we were talking about jimbob and LaserGuy removing a large group that didn't contain them from the lynch pool. I'm not saying I don't see the logic of scum narrowing the lynch pool in general, but can you see why I find it hard to see jimbob and LG as suspicious for that particular point?
bessie wrote:And flicky, this is not a stupid question, and I don’t think you are being stupid at all, and I hope that the um, err, aggression that some more um err experienced players (um err me :oops: ) have displayed in this game hasn't made you feel that way.
No worries, I know you're just playing the game. :)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:07 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:But why did you feel it was different than Halloween?


Hallowe'en quote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:I have seen FoS before, and kinda understood it from the context of the sentence. However, Somi has just used it several times, and it was bugging me that I don’t know what it was.

Regarding my increased use of punctuation and correct grammar. It doesn’t necessarily mean I’m scum, look at my other scum games. FaiD, and Fridge. Is it possible that I’m maturing? Being more careful with writing?

What I wrote is how you view me, it’s in my best interests to sound and appear like a well rounded adult. (Ignore the fact that I’m 14). And with the lack of parentheses.


This game:
Peaceful Whale wrote:Meow...I’m not going to lie, I didn’t in the first place. In all my games, even when I’m town, I’ve been seen as pretty scummy. Only my noobyness got me through some of them. I’ve done stuff like this before. I sometimes find a reads list and copy it, but rearrange what I don’t agree with to fit my needs. I’ve kinda done the same thing here, but more extreme. I’ve been copying people like Bessie, she has already pointed out where. I’m sorry Bessie that your happened to be right about me. : cry : I don’t trust myself to be towny, so I try and follow people who I believe are town (pr at least doing a better job than I am).
This way I don’t screw up, get myself killed, or distract from actual scum. (I’ve mentioned how being towny is important for townies to do).
I’ll stop now, seeing as it’s not working at all, and try and be myself... even though no one likes it.


As I said, I feel that the second quote contains an outright lie to start with (he was generally perceived extremely townie in Fridge mafia where he was scum), and I feel that in the former case, the structure of the sentence is more forgiving for it to be simply poorly written. That said, I didn't feel this was a particularly strong slip (I actually unvoted PW shortly after this post).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:02 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:Do you actually have any other questions for me?
Currently not.
Got one. What is your (detailed) read on bessie?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:56 pm UTC

@Hari Seldon: do you still stand by your secret town-read on bessie? Will you reveal what it is if we mislynch today?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby wam » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:24 pm UTC

Votals
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:05 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:cemper
LaserGuy
Madge
bessie
jimbobmacdoodle

FMPOV this pool obviously contains both scum and if there is a PR in there we almost can't lose. It's interesting to see who is fighting this inevitability and who is embracing it.

Seeing that you're sure Madge is town we would win automatically by PoE. Why the doubt?

Replace "we almost can't lose." with "and if I'm right and everyone follows my plan, we can't lose."

If we follow that plan and lynch town twice in a row then even I will doubt the premise and the plan will probably fail. So it's still worth sorting the pool and trying to pick the scum out.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:12 pm UTC

Just going through most of the days content before working on reads, to make sure I haven't missed anything.
Madge wrote:No strong opinions on alignment to post yet. Still thinking about it.

Somi/Bessie are town. BF not wanting me to claim FMPOV is town points but that doesn't put him into the town category because wine.

Laserguy/Hari neutral.

Flicky unsure; I think I'm biased by yesterday's wagon.

Jimbob & Cemper unsure; they hasn't done anything to be memorable to me.

Sabrar I don't know why but I'm thinking him scummy and I'm not sure I have any justification for this.

^ Those are some prelim thoughts.
No strong opinions; next line Somi/Bessie are town. Hmm... Also interesting that there's only one possible scum on this list.

LaserGuy wrote:Madge, bessie, cemper, jimbob, probably in that order, with vanishingly small chance of flicky at the end.
Does the (admittedly suggested vanishingly small) chance of flicky being scum make any difference to this list? In other words, if flicky were to suddenly flip scum, how would this affect your reads of Sabrar, BoomFrog, and Hari Seldon?
bessie wrote:What’s your hurry? Worried about the day’s discussion?
Bessie, have you understood my subsequent explanation as to why I made that list initially? It was never my intention to rely solely on that to decide where my vote will go. What do you think about my ordered buddy list?
LaserGuy wrote:There's some weird interactions between bessie and PW that I need to think about some more.
Have you thought about this more, and what were your conclusions?
Madge wrote:I think my naughty list has BF and jimbob today. Nice list Bessie and Somitomi (of course)
What don't you like about our content?
BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Why LaserGuy?

Because he felt like he didn't care about the lynch. He started the day strong, then hung back (which was fine), then... kept hanging back. He didn't form any strong opinions or try and influence others. He stayed in data gathering mode when it was time for action. I think he was worried about the lynch because the top 3 candidates were all town.
What do you think about LaserGuy pointing out PW's slip? Do you think he'd do that to his scum buddy, when there wasn't really any need to?
Hari Seldon wrote:On the opposite end of this, I think both Madge and Moody aligned themselves too closely with him to likely be his partner. Madge hard defended PW in the midst of him being bombessied and continued to defend and buddy through to the end of the day. And Moody did not falter at all here when called out by Sabrar. That does not feel like the reaction of a partner. Mafia in general are inclined to disassociate themselves with each other, and I think this to be even more so in PW's case, who again is very lynchable, and very easy to claim suspicions on without anyone thinking it unnatural.
Whilst I accept in some situations this is certainly common enough, I don't agree that this is always the case, and I feel like it's likely to change player-by-player, and game-by-game. I can provide several counter examples of townies who said that they would never bus their partner, and other games where scum chose not to (although the one I immediately can think of is Secret Santa, where admittedly there was zero chance of bessie getting lynched on D1 or D2, and therefore no need to distance myself specifically).

I certainly see where cemper is coming from with his link between flicky and Sabrar - I don't think I ever noted exactly this in thread, but my first instinct when thinking about why flicky would be town with his VT claim, following Sabrar's initial reaction, was that Sabrar would have realised that a scum team would at least consider not claiming PR, and to suggest otherwise is nonsense. However, I also felt that flicky's claim sounded townie (i.e. the tone of it, not specifically the VT bit).
cemper93 wrote:I also disagree that flicky is town for being on the PW bandwagon, mostly because he would have gotten lynched had the bandwagon not gotten off the ground (as stated above).
Yes, but why pick PW, as opposed to, say, Madge, or Hari, both of whom apparently had more chance of being lynched?
cemper93 on Sabrar wrote:Which looks like prime "supply myself with lynch reasons for the rest of this game in case my mate gets found out" content to me
Disagree with this. Sabrar's reaction was very similar to mine on this topic.
cemper93 wrote:My first game was this one. I hope that reading it will convince you that I did need no bringing up of the idea of deliberately playing bad.
Not going too read it due to time issues, but I think my point is still valid. As noted, your comment sounded suspiciously close to how PW played in his first game.
BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
bessie wrote:Why would Boom actively push for a PW lynch if Flicky was sitting at L-1 and Madge only had two votes.

For the town-credit later. He noted that he didn't think it would succeed.

Come on, I pulled off the almost lynch of Red Ryu D1 in crossover and this was an easier situation then that. All I had to do would have been let you stay on Madge and Flicky would have been lynched. Or been slower to prompt Hari to consider PW. I know any townie credit I earn is watered down by the Boomfrog effect, the gains aren't worth losing a teammate D1. (And without even getting the benifit of outing a PR).
Assuming town!flicky, then I agree with this. I don't think scum!BoomFrog would have pushed as hard as he did, to get a scum lynch ahead of a town lynch. He couldn't have known whether or not somitomi or I would have voted (or others for that matter), so if he was going for the attempt deliberately hoping to fail, then he couldn't have been certain that it would have failed. Also thinking about it a bit more, assuming scum!flicky, and I think it's even less likely BoomFrog would have pushed it - it was far from certain that the PW wagon would get sufficient momentum to get over the line, and therefore earn BoomFrog and flicky the town cred needed, and if it hadn't, with flicky flipping scum, BoomFrog would have looked terrible (although PW would have looked okay, probably).
flicky1991 wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I thought moody's comments were reasonable, especially given I had a town read of PW at the time. [...] I probably should have looked at it from both town!PW and scum!PW angles, given I didn't know or even have a strong read of PW's alignment.
Isn't that self-contradictory?
Errr... yes, slightly, or at least close enough to cause confusion. My town read on PW wasn't strong, so I should have looked at it from both points of view, which was the point I was trying to make.
bessie wrote:Agree. I don’t like how jimbob and LaserGuy have been pushing PW voters= confirmed town.
I'm not saying they're confirmed town. I suggested that it was a good place to focus initially though, since the evidence in my mind led me to the conclusion that they're likely town.

I know this is a bit self-serving, but I'm liking flicky's points against bessie on this topic.

Skimmed the last page, as I have to go out now. Will start working on reads this evening when I get home, if there's time.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:29 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Hmm, revisiting this post:
BoomFrog wrote:
moody7277 wrote:
somitomi wrote:How many day vigilantes are in this game?

Sadly, none. One does wonder if this might slide into the "no cryptogrpahy" rule though. :wink:

Unvote

@Bessie: I interpreted this as Moody thinking somitomi was making a joke about me and PW (which he was) and then half-joking that the woofs and meows counted as a code.
How did you catch a joke reference I missed (silly behavior=vigilante) from a game that I played and you didn’t? Especially since you tried to imply in this post that you didn’t follow the game very closely? (Note: more on this below, I believe BoomFrog was following that game. )

:D It made zero sense but no one else found it odd therefore it was a joke, and it was obviously a reference to something I'd missed in a game those three players had all played in. And of course, it had to be about me because I was the only thing worth talking about. I haven't read that game beyond the three pages I referenced before making my "read" and I read the ending flavor so I could read the roles.

bessie wrote:Still reading BoomFrog as woof on D1 until this post:
BoomFrog wrote: @Sabrar: Do you really need more? I don't.
This is where I started leaning woof woof on BoomFrog, not as just for his quick acceptance of Madge’s claim, but more for calling out Sabrar for not immediately doing the same.
So to be clear, if I turn out to be justified in my Madge read then I'm back to Woof?

bessie wrote:The Peaceful Whale bus would be a bit surprising, but it could be an attempt to save flicky, or Madge if he thought the wagon might swing back to her. Or it could just be a bus, because there was a chance that Peaceful Whale would accidentally slip and reveal the scum team. Or maybe he already did.
As Sabrar said, it didn't make sense to do this to save Madge, she was already safe. If I did it to save flicky that means Madge is town which conflicts with your previous premise.

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: The secret townie club.
BoomFrog is too sure of this his Madge read. As pointed out already by me, his Secret Townie Club in Shakespeare contained only 1/3 town.
I thought only domichka was scum on that list. I recall it being 2/3rd town. :|

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: Obviously, I mean an updated list that incorporates the vast amount of new information we have.
What vast amounts of new information? Peaceful Whale flipped scum, which did not surprise me, Vicarin flipped town which did not surprise me (and before you say it, I am referring to the flip, not the kill), and no one claimed a night result. (Note: I have more on this below.)
I felt that the way the votes moved around and who people suggested while scrambling was very informative. But I agree, since looking at it from your perspective, there wasn't a lot of new info for you. The only real new info is, who pushed the PW lynch, and I can understand you are skeptical of everything I do and need to ponder it extra.

bessie wrote:Reference this post:
BoomFrog wrote:PoE. It's either him or JimBob or Bessie, and I'm town lean on JimBob except for him being way too confident that LaserGuy is town. Bessie seems slightly scummy except for how hard she attacked PW. Did she distance hard in Santa?
Interesting, setting yourself up to “compromise” lynch me? And I already pointed out your suspicious question of Sabrar here:
bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: Bessie seems slightly scummy except for how hard she attacked PW. Did she distance hard in Santa?
Why ask Sabrar? Why not look it up yourself. You were following the game for at least a while, and closely enough to make a read. Or did you want Sabrar to reread Secret Santa for some reason?
Are you going to answer that question?
I didn't mean to skip it. Pulling your questions out is difficult on mobile. (I don't know how to fix this without totally messing up your process). Anyway, asking Sabrar is far easier then looking it up myself, I assume he could answer off the top of his head, which I believe he did. Even if he is scum he wouldn't lie about something so verifiable.

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: @Cemper: Have you ever played in a game where scum had day chat before?
Misnomer’s Smalltown PYP. Or did you already know that? Spoiler: bessie was scum.
Thank you, that is very helpful. No I didn't already know that.

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: About the list thing, I was asking for updated lists based on the interesting results of the lynch, but I can see how the result wasn't new info to you if you were that convinced PW was scum then his flip isn't changing your list. The aggressive means you didn't see my POV very well and I'm not sure what to make of that.
Already conveniently addressed in the same post that we are discussing now (where I replied that did not update my town-scum):
bessie wrote: I will need to take a look at the end of day voting more closely, the wagon switched after I left for work.

Interesting that you are calling me out for not immediately updating my list and recognizing you as town based upon your end of D1 antics and for not accepting your point of view without question.
I didn't intend to call anyone out for not updating their lists yet. I was more thinking, "I and Sabrar have posted a lot and it's not really getting us anywhere. I am announcing that I'm holding back on creating more content until these people have time to catch up and weigh in."

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Since there was more resistance to lynching Madge then lynching PW, why not push PWs lunch first to prove to everyone that you were right, then use that momentum to lynch Madge the next day?
Interesting, why do you think that the most important thing to me would be proving that I am right?
First of all, it's important to prove you are right even to yourself. You were not 100% sure PW was scum, right? Lynching him solidifies the foundation and lets you know 100% if he is scum or not and then build deductions from there. Secondly, as an effective townie you want to catch scum, and actually successfully direct the lynch onto the scum. Proving you are right to everyone about PW would help you achieve that second step with your further reads. Thirdly, proving you caught scum D1 can help prove you are town which should be important to you. Were you really near 100% sure that PW was scum and did not want to lynch him D1? I'm so confused about this issue.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:35 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What do you think about LaserGuy pointing out PW's slip? Do you think he'd do that to his scum buddy, when there wasn't really any need to?

I didn't think it was actually a scum slip, (as Hari pointed out). But I was thinking LaserGuy jumped on it because as a scummate it stuck out to him and he thought it was obvious enough that someone would point it out, so he might as well do it first and get credit. It's weak evidence either way. However, for other reasons LG is drifting towards townie today, I'm still pretty undecided but currently Cemper seems scummiest.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:49 pm UTC

@BoomFrog: in Shakespeare freezeblade was indie (Survivor).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:22 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: I would like your opinion on cemper (putting aside the fact that he's not in any of the scum-teams you proposed).
Will do a cemper read today.

LaserGuy wrote:Interesting coincidence that he happened to be reading one of your scum games. Peaceful Whale doesn't even remember the games he's played very well. In the same post he doesn't remember that flicky has played before despite the fact that PW and flicky have played together in Fridge mafia and flicky subbed into Secret Santa where PW was a mod. Again, I think it's more likely that this was information fed to him by a buddy.
Why yes it is an interesting coincidence, isn’t it? Especially since he could have just read the previous game which he also modded. The post where I specifically accused Peaceful Whale of copying my meta was here, also included a link to Shakespeare. Clarified this for Madge here.
bessie wrote:I am accusing Peaceful Whale of copying my meta to appear townie. Note: I accused Peaceful Whale of copying my reads in Crossover (no time to dig up links right now because Crossover was long). I’m known for having a townie meta (as cemper keeps reminding everyone), for tunneling (as Peaceful Whale himself pointed out in this game), and for analyzing confirmation posts (which almost no one else does). For an example see Shakespeare, where Sabrar said he was eagerly awaiting my confirmation post analysis here.

There are other players here that know I do analyze confirmation posts, and could have discussed it with Peaceful Whale in scum chat. Read my second spoiler in this post.
LaserGuy wrote:Third, I am further suspicious of this matter because I rather suspect that Sabrar was referring to bessie's well-known proclivity to analyse confirmation posts for scum, not in fact due to a confirmation of bessie's townie status. I am eager of the opinion that Sabrar has more tact.

I agree it’s odd that Peaceful Whale would have thought to copy this particular aspect of my meta unless he was using my opening post in Secret Santa as a model, but I think that it is quite interesting that you keep insisting that I am the only person in this game that knows that I like to analyze confirmation posts and therefore the only person in the game that could advise Peaceful Whale to do this.

LaserGuy wrote:You were quite happy to push for his lynch D1 in other games. What's change in your evaluation since then?
How did you miss all the posts where I said I preferred Madge? And quit implying that I was actively trying not to lynch him.

LaserGuy wrote:Because that's what bussing is for.
Interesting you refute me on this and then acknowledge you understood my point perfectly immediately after this.
LaserGuy wrote:I agree this could have been an attempt to save flicky. Madge was not in any serious danger... simply doing nothing would have likely saved her. On the other hand, if PW had accidentally slipped and revealed his buddies, lynching him would be the worst possible option for mafia since it would confirm that PW is scum and the slip was genuine. There's generally a certain level of scum ruthlessness regarding hard bussing buddies underpinning a lot of this argument that is not really consistent with my experience on this site for how scumteams tend to operate.
It’s difficult to get a feel for how the wagon was moving by reading posts after the fact. When I voted and left for work, flicky was the likely lynch, Madge was still a possible candidate but maybe less likely, as Vicarin was already asleep. I agree with you about the hard bussing, in that I don’t think it’s happened recently (and I’m done for now reading through games that are more than three years old), but you are equating your personal experience with the way things have to be.

LaserGuy wrote:Hmm... I will think about this. Though I'm curious to note that you apparently didn't have an opinion on me and BoomFrog vs. Sabrar on page 4 and following, even when I tried to engage you. You never did get back to me here, I don't think.
I answered your question as soon as I saw it. Please point to whatever specifically you want me to comment on re Sabrar. Sabrar was more reserved the first few pages than he usually is, which was probably why I replied to you the way I did in the post you linked. You are correct in that I did not do a detailed read of Sabrar.

flicky1991 wrote:Right, but in the post that started the conversation, we were talking about jimbob and LaserGuy removing a large group that didn't contain themfrom the lynch pool. I'm not saying I don't see the logic of scum narrowing the lynch pool in general, but can you see why I find it hard to see jimbob and LG as suspicious for that particular point?
jimbob immediately removed LaserGuy from the pool. LaserGuy’s preferred lynch order has jimbob last. D2 is 8/2, lynch bessie. D3 is 6/2, lynch Madge. D3 is 4/2, lynch cemper for the win. (Note: simplified using numbers only and not accounting for power roles.)

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Bessie, have you understood my subsequent explanation as to why I made that list initially? It was never my intention to rely solely on that to decide where my vote will go. What do you think about my ordered buddy list?
Will look at your analysis later today after I read cemper, since both will take some time.

BoomFrog wrote:So to be clear, if I turn out to be justified in my Madge read then I'm back to Woof?
BoomFrog wrote:I didn't intend to call anyone out for not updating their lists yet. I was more thinking, "I and Sabrar have posted a lot and it's not really getting us anywhere. I am announcing that I'm holding back on creating more content until these people have time to catch up and weigh in."
There is your read of Madge, which may or may not be correct or justified or whatever. Then there is you trying to throw shade on Sabrar, and later me, for not sheeping you, which is more concerning to me.

BoomFrog wrote:As Sabrar said, it didn't make sense to do this to save Madge, she was already safe.
This is not obvious to me, see my reply to LaserGuy above.

BoomFrog wrote: I felt that the way the votes moved around and who people suggested while scrambling was very informative. But I agree, since looking at it from your perspective, there wasn't a lot of new info for you. The only real new info is, who pushed the PW lynch, and I can understand you are skeptical of everything I do and need to ponder it extra.
See reply to LaserGuy above. I’m trying to get a feel but I wasn’t there so it’s more difficult.

BoomFrog wrote:Pulling your questions out is difficult on mobile. (I don't know how to fix this without totally messing up your process). ]
This is a valid point, and one I had made a conscious effort to try and change in Crossover because the issue with people making long posts addressing multiple points made it difficult to pull out points, reply, and find specific points later, this was brought up by Evil George Washington and others throughout the game. I had been trying to link more and quote less, but this is difficult for Madge to follow. I understand all points, but I’m not sure what the solution is. My style is what it is, and the only way I feel I can play effectively is to analyze post by post in chronological order and pull out what I need, and it’s hard to focus on other tasks if I’m not current (which is why I need to do this before I do my cemper read and analyze jimbob’s posts).

I’ll try breaking my posts up a little more, but I’m kind of like the Time thread. The format is important to the overall understanding of the subject. :)

BoomFrog wrote:Thank you, that is very helpful. No I didn't already know that.
It occurred to me after I posted this that this information may not be giving you what you are looking for. That game was nightless.

Will think about and reply to the last part later. My husband has been nagging me to go out for the past hour and I keep assuring him that I am almost done.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:42 pm UTC

Vote bessie

I'll try to organize my thoughts into some coherent reads later today, maybe tomorrow depending on how long it takes.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:00 pm UTC

Reads time. I'll do this in order based on my likely buddies, so that I get the ones who are most suspiciously linked to Peaceful Whale first.

Madge (previously 3rd scummiest):
Spoiler:
Seriously considering NL. Convinced by arguments. Fan of PR results. Responds to accusation of jumping in on claim strategy late. Explained was useful to her. Sabrar/Vicarin was a "car crash". Argument (sleepgate) against PW is stupid. Not posting for 16 hours is not scummy. Wants to know why bessie is so concerned about the delay. Asks bessie if she was copying something she did previously. Naughty list - bessie, somitomi. Nice list - Sabrar, cemper - gut reads.

Likes PW style. Votes NL as preference, would compromise on somitomi (good consensus) or bessie. Acknowledges that is partly due to her bias. Promises to change vote defensively.

Explains NL as creating D1 2.0, but with ability to speculate about scum kill. Acknowledges wine problems. Snarky comments about bessie sleeping too long. Extra night results D3.

Lays out possibilities for tracker/watcher to figure things out. Logic is not 100% complete. Extra time gives opportunities to determine naivety. Corrects some of her maths. Ends up in arugment with Vicarin over this. Clarifies some related points (beer, previous post was single visitors only). Responds to bessie over sleepgate. Thinks PW wouldn't wait for somitomi based on SDK mentoring experience.

Explains she'll claim before going to bed. Suggests people should come up with second choices/consider changing votes. Explains that she isn't specifically claiming anything. Decides not to claim due to change in votals.

Would prefer lynching bessie or somitomi ahead of flicky. Says she decided not to claim because BF told her not to. States she soft-claimed, and explains why. Explains that she put somitomi first because of consensus. Thinks bessie's stubbornness increases as scum. Responds to my question about D1 v2.0. Removes Sabrar from nice list for pushing for claim. Would prefer somitomi to flicky, and switches vote.

States that players shouldn't claim until being L-2 or so. Switches vote to flicky following somitomi's claim. Reminds people to counterclaim.

Day 2. Glad PW was scum, but doesn't think sleep comments were relevant still. People voting for him are either smarter or just lucky. Seems to think bessie was one, and removes her from the naughty list. Willing to claim. Shocked by Vicarin being the target. No strong opinions on alignment, but still gives a few thoughts (Somi, bessie town, BF town points, LG, Hari neutral, flicky, me cemper unsure, Sabrar scummy (admits no justification). Clarifies bessie "voting" for PW as being attacking him.

Explains her POV on whether she'd have supported lynching a newbie town (would not have prevented it if with BF, and good reason. Finds bessie's quote on BF interesting, thinks pointed out logic is inconsistent with actions. Puts me and BF on naughty list, with bessie and somitomi on nice list. Thinks saving obviscum until late is terrible strategy, and explains reasons. "Rolls eyes" comment asking bessie what she will say when she flips town. Thinks she is likely going to get lynched based on lists. Doesn't know what she can do to get people to let her live.
Assuming that naughty == scummy, then I find it interesting that she removes bessie from the naughty list for "voting" PW (which she didn't), but still finds Sabrar scummy, who was voting for PW. Not sure what to make of this, as I don't feel like a bessie/Madge team is all that likely, I must admit. It does seem slightly suspicious though.

@Madge - am I write in my understanding that naughty is scum, and nice is town?

Perhaps more interesting is that despite finding Sabrar scummy, she puts me and BoomFrog on the naughty list, and hasn't explained what she dislikes about my play.

@Madge - why am I on the naughty list? Why isn't Sabrar?

There's not much else to say about Madge's content. It feels very light and empty, if I'm honest, although that isn't particularly unusual for Madge (please don't take that personally), given her known penchant for relying on result claims. I'm pleased that she's actively giving a few opinions on players here and there, although I find her latest updates to her naughty list suspicious. There's also one small ping (currently not necessarily alignment indicative) which I will explain if and when Madge claims (or otherwise dies). Overall, still reading as mildly scummy, bumped up to likely scum due to being the most likely buddy with Peaceful Whale.

cemper (previously 2nd scummiest):
Spoiler:
Points out contradiction in PW's joking comments. Talks about flicky's analysis post again. Strongly reading flicky as scum for it. States that he's scum because the summary only discusses info scum is interested in. Suggests not reading thread from town perspective. Town flicky would have judged reasoning, and trying to figure out how to scum hunt, whereas scum flicky only cares about willingness to lynch. Claims it's all a large scum slip. Encourages people to reread it. Asks BF about his thoughts on flicky's post. Asks me for examples of good contribution from flicky.

Thinks investigating bessie or BF wise, as well as PW, due to inability to determine meta. Lynch list is flicky, PW, bessie, BF. Doesn't need to make a point on PW and has already made point about flicky. Says read bessie and BF scum since game started. No strong scum reads on Madge, but understands concerns. Wouldn't like her lynch. Opinion on Sabrar has been steadily improving. Aggressiveness is part of his meta. Neutral or town on everybody else. Would rather NL than lynch any of those.

Bessie rubs him the wrong way, ever since he voted her. Scum-hunting efforts aren't sincere. BF has made only one large post, and thinks he deliberately misrepresented one of cemper's own arugments to start a bandwagon. Felt like had a weird defence of PW, whom he thinks is scum. Rest of content was just okay, raised some valid points, but also some weird patterns.

Asks me whether I still believe flicky is contributing as best he can and whether I still read him as slightly townie. Disappears for a day and a half or so, and explains been busy with RL. Still wants to lynch flicky. Finds it weird people are treating Madge as town. Flicky claiming VT could be just wine. Believes scum won't claim PR any more.

D2: Slow to arrive (over day and a half after D2 started). Working on larger post. Doesn't believe scum has night chat. Posts case for PW/Sabrar/flicky team. Finds weird anybody who doesn't see flicky's VT claim as wine. Notes verbose town reads by PW on flicky and Madge, and thinks exactly one of them is scum. Flicky wins out because PW said he wouldn't mind that lynch, but didn't vote. Doesn't think both are scum, because PW wouldn't have linked himself to them both quite so clearly. Concerned by the confirmed-town view of many people on flicky. Sabrar hardest player to read. Notes Sabrar being very sure flicky was a mislynch, but finds his reasoning faulty (VT claim was wine). Interactions around it are weird. Didn't like aggression shown by Sabrar to those who disagreed about flicky's claim. Sabrar's demand for BF to unvote flicky is ridiculous. Finds Sabrar's flip-flopping on BF interesting. Does not consider everybody on PW auto-town. People who switched votes could have been bussing scum, especially Sabrar. Finds Sabrar's desire to switch to cemper opportunism, and then also doesn't like him for attacking me for not liking cemper. Pinged by Sabrar counting from day end rather than day start for timings. Disagrees with my conclusions re. flicky/PW links. thinks flicky being on PW bandwagon not indicative of him being town. Sabrar attacked PW a lot, but didn't double down until shortly before deadline. Opinion of bessie has omproved, BF, less so, but doesn't see a valid buddy for him. Asks bessie about whether she still thinks PW/Madge are a scum team. Claims that he didn't need any convincing to bring up his first game. All-town wagon doesn't make target scum.

Brief response and question to BF over day chat experience. Goes back and looks at PW's read of flicky. Thinks PW was trying to give a town reading of flicky, but also trying to distance himself at that point. Confused by Sabrar arguing point about VT and scum claims. Acknowledges Sabrar's comment about PW being contradicted by flicky.
I certainly see cemper's case on flicky/Sabrar/PW, and he could be right, but I also completely agree with the response that it is just using facts to fit a preconceived narrative. In particular, why is Sabrar picked out as someone who switching his vote on PW could be bussing scum, ahead of, say, BoomFrog? The comment about Sabrar flipping on me for not liking cemper is also not valid, since Sabrar was commenting on my case for a PW/cemper team, following PW's flip not on my dislike of cemper in general, prior to the flip, which altered people's opinions on players.

Further back than that, his comments around flicky's claim are certainly valid points. I'm not so certain about his comments about flicky's analysis post, as he's judging flicky by a playstyle that might not be flicky's. I find it interesting that he didn't make any sort of case against PW, simply saying it's obvious, but I don't think that is alignment indicative.

I'm leaning towards the apparent town-slip over night chat being likely genuine. It would have had to have been deliberately faked, and wasn't exactly at a point when he was under pressure and felt the need to "prove" himself town, so doesn't seem likely to be fake. The rest of his content isn't really inherently scummy, although it's not particularly townie, in my opinion, so I'm tentatively going to put him as town, despite the possible link to Peaceful Whale. In particular, that means I must be wrong with my earlier thoughts about links between PW and LG/bessie/flicky.

Time to go to bed, so the other reads will have to wait for tomorrow. I'm happy with Madge's lynch, given my read above, and her link to PW, and so am going to get the ball rolling here:

Vote Madge

If I find someone scummier tomorrow, I'll change it then.
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matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:14 am UTC

I’ve been thinking about this post all day.
LaserGuy wrote:I tentatively agree that BoomFrog is capable of this. I don't know about Hari Seldon one way or the other. The problem I have with BoomFrog bussing in this context is that I have a very difficult time believing that BF would have gone ahead with his "woof" gambit with PW as a buddy. I don't think he would have trusted PW to behave naturally and I don't think he would have intentionally made himself a liability to his newbie partner(s).
I’m wondering if it’s possible that scum!BoomFrog did not join chat right away. This would fit with my theory that Peaceful Whale delayed posting because he was waiting for a reply in scum chat.

[LaserGuy can use the above wine when he attacks me later.]

bessie wrote:Interesting, why do you think that the most important thing to me would be proving that I am right?
BoomFrog wrote: I'm so confused about this issue.
See underlined. It might be clear later.

LaserGuy wrote:Vote bessie

I'll try to organize my thoughts into some coherent reads later today, maybe tomorrow depending on how long it takes.
I am anxiously awaiting your case on me, which I hope is more than “bessie ended the day without a vote on Peaceful Whale”. Please include your ordered list of my possible scum buddies, unless of course you are afraid to commit yourself.


Stream-of-consciousness cemper93 read

No pings from his first few posts.

I’ve already said in thread that I glossed over a lot of the D1 PR strategy talk. I thought this was a sensible question, and the answer was not what I expected:
cemper93 wrote:Will we be told the alignment, role and sanity of dead players?

cemper reconsidered his view on PR strategy after this was answered and drew some suspicion for it.

He’s annoyed with BoomFrog, I always had the feeling that those jumping on BoomDog were going after low hanging fruit, and using it in lieu of posting other content.

Interesting that in his first reads list he has flicky and Sabrar as his strong scum picks, with Peaceful Whale in third (implied), somitomi town, Vicarin neutral. I think cemper’s observation of Sabrar is accurate but he draws the wrong conclusion from it. Given recent discussions re cemper’s D2 content, I find it interesting that he calls me out for low content 25 hours in to D1.

bessie wrote: Back when I played here more regularly, BoomFrog was known as the archetypal excellent scum player and bessie was known as the towniest, in particular known for her excellent analysis. So yes, I was kind of going by a dead metagame here.
I didn’t reread Smalltown as research for this game, but this was probably a reasonable observation for the time.

cemper93 wrote:Vote bessie

This was just bad analysis all around, which is completely out of character for her.
cemper93 wrote:You see though, bessie is just a real good mafia player: if she's town, everyone reads her as super town and she posts excellent analysis, and if she's scum, everyone reads her as super town. Therefore, if she doesn't post excellent analysis, she might be scum.
I’ve commented on cemper’s meta reads of me before here and l don’t understand where it’s coming from. Townie yes, excellent huh? Was I really already awesome three years ago? I’ve expressed that possibly he was mixing me up with the legendary USN, but I think that she was known as an excellent scum player. So this would indicate to me that he possibly discussed me with someone.

I like that he did not waiver on his town read of somitomi when I pressured him, and he provided links to back up his read (as I asked him to).

I understand where he is coming from with his flicky read, I think he is misreading flicky but I’ve never been able to do that type of read. More on flicky here. Still don’t agree, but again, I’ve never been good at behavior type analysis.

A reread of this post is interesting knowing Vicatrin’s flip:
cemper93 wrote:
vicarin wrote:If someone's meta is consistently unhelpful or random though, they're going to attract lynches no matter what side they're on simply because there's no way to tell whether something's a slip or just them being random. Which is the current problem we're having with PW. It's looking like unless a PR gets a definitive result on him, we're going to have no damn idea whether they're town or scum for the rest of the game.
Note that this is the same problem we have with bessie and BoomFrog, although in their cases bessie always reads town and BoomFrog always reads jester. I think that investigating any of these players would be wise, as you hint at.


cemper93 wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Also, why is Bessie scummy? I must have missed this.
In addition to the reasons when I originally voted her, she just rubs me off the wrong way ever since. Her scum-hunting efforts, by bessie standards, just didn't seem sincere. You enunciated it best yourself:
BoomFrog wrote:Bessie's play has been worrying. The point about PW timing being off was a valid point, however PW's explination is reasonable and this should be slight scummy points and moving on. I know she stubbornly prides herself in being stubborn, but the somitomi "misunderstanding" line of questioning has been a complete waste of time and I wonder if it's an intentional waste of time so Bessie didn't need to provide more substantial content.
Town!bessie just... knows these things, and doesn't play that way.
cemper using someone else’s read to make a read of me. Further suspicion that his meta read of me is from a discussion, not from memory.

Reference this post:
cemper93 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:My mistake about the mod-prod, I used day-end to compare the elapsed time to.
This made me go back to the rules to check if scum have nightchat. Apparently they don't. Mother of pings though...


Relevant posts:
the rules wrote:10. All private communications between players are Daychat.
Sample Mafia Goon Role PM wrote:You are a mafia goon with XXX and XXX, you have night chat in this quick topic
Suzaku wrote:@mods: Game-specific rule 10 says scum have day chat but sample mafia role PM says night chat. I assume the former is correct?

Apologies, this confusion is my fault. Yes, scum have day chat.]
I am undecided on whether or not this is a town slip.

cemper93 wrote:Back in the day when I played here more regularly, seven posts per player and day was considered high-activity.
This is true.

Reference cemper’s case on PW-Sabrar-flicky here. I follow his case on flicky, but since I already have Madge as scum it is possibly influencing my evaluation of his case. I agree with this:
cemper93 wrote:It concerns me deeply that there appears to be a non-negligble amount of players who treat flicky like he's confirmed town today.



cemper93 wrote:That could just be standard Sabrar play, but it could also be scum that's saddened because its gambit didn't pay off.
cemper93 wrote: I get Sabrar didn't like me all day, but threatening BoomFrog for being on the flicky train like that is ridiculous. Preventing townies from lynching scum by threatening them would seem like very, very aggressive scum play, but I could just see Sabrar doing it.
I don’t see either of these as alignment indicative for Sabrar, but my point of view is influenced by meta. I agree Sabrar has flipped a lot on BoomFrog.

cemper93 wrote:Granted, BF did push PW, but here's an important point: I do not consider everybody who voted for PW yesterday town, and neither should anybody else. The action shortly before the deadline was very frantic, and any of the players who switched their votes to PW so suddenly could be bussing scum.
+1, QFT, etc. Did I already quote this? Yes, here.

cemper93 wrote:Note also that today Sabrar seems to have much improved his opinion of me:
Sabrar wrote:jimbob's 'case' on cemper is extremely thin, describing it as 'fair chance but not exactly hard and fast' is disingenuous.
So while yesterday, he wanted to lynch me because jimbob didn't like me, he now wants to attack jimbob because jimbob still doesn't like me. That seems off.
Don’t agree. You can be suspicious of someone, and be suspicious of another person independently of that read. So I don’t see Sabrar’s suspicion of jimbob’s “thin case” as a defense of you at all.

cemper93 wrote:I also really don't like Sabrar's potential scum slip from above. Counting from the day-end post is pinging me. What's worse is that Sabrar attacked me for not posting within 18 hours since the day started, and that he really seemed to think that I had been gone for longer than that. His assertion that "18 hours is already a long time" is bogus. If not posting for 18 hours was in and of itself suspicious, we could just lynch every player in this game right now. This whole interaction just doesn't give me townie vibes.
This is a valid observation and I am thinking about it.

cemper93 wrote:
bessie wrote:I think there’s more to Madge’s claim than just buying time for herself. Madge is a good person and I can see her trying to protect Peaceful Whale, regardless or either of their alignments. Although in this game I am reading them as a scum team.
Do you still read them that way?
At the start of D2 I would have said yes on all counts (yes Madge you can’t hide the truth from me, I think you’re a good person). Madge’s D2 inactivity is making this a difficult call, as I can’t reevaluate her if I have nothing to work with.

cemper, I can follow your analysis in this post re WhaleSpeak, but I’m rethinking a lot of my previous PW conceptions. I’ve reread his content, and I’m not sure if and at what point Peaceful Whale may have decided to be deliberately unhelpful or confusing (and there’s nothing wrong with that, it is part of the game). However, I see that Peaceful Whale has not only changed his sig, he asked for opinions unspoilered in the Gojoe thread, which is IMO borderline unethical (wanting to discuss his meta in Gojoe) since his meta is central to the discussion of an open game, but wam’s seen it (or at least wam has responded to Peaceful Whale since he made that post) and it’s wam’s call.

I'll see what conclusions I can draw from this in a bit.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:17 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Madge wrote:I
I'm not sure there's much I can do to get people to let me live, at least not without drastically changing my playstyle (which in itself would be suspicious).

An updated naughty list would be a great start.


Pfft, updated reads list is against my playstyle!

Nice: Somi / Bessie

Naughty: BF (that exchange with PW where you left out some possibilities), jimbob (just a vibe, i don't do specifics), Sabrar (???)

I am really struggling to read flicky, hari, laserguy, cemper. I have been all game.

Sabrar is just all over the place... he's not enough to be in Naughty or Nice specifically, but he's still, like, THERE, you know? So I put him in naughty as something about him seems different, and different could be Naughty. Who knows!

Boomfrog having to bus PW is weird, does sit wrong with me. I think BF's woof gambit would be hard though - PW would know BF was scum and... I don't know if he'd be able to react naturally. (Did PW act naturally though? Exercise for the reader).

Random thought: Bessie's new avatar makes it look like the dog is a head with feet. It's adorable.

@Bessie can you please order people from woof to grr instead of town to scum? I would love it. Except you seem to use woof to mean scummy at the moment. My pup almost never barks but when she does it's when she's trying to get someone to play!

Random side thought: in case it's not obvious to the doctor, quick FYI: we get no benefit from knowing you're naive (i.e. if you target someone who dies anyway). So if you happen to protect someone who is killed anyway, don't mention you're naive when you claim. Scum should have to try and "outthink" you, or be wary of it. (That said - can doctors self-target?)

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:No strong opinions; next line Somi/Bessie are town. Hmm... Also interesting that there's only one possible scum on this list.

.... yes, how unusual that I say the un CC'd tracker is town and that bessie who I think wouldn't have bussed PW like she did as town is town. Those were my strongest opinions. Did you not notice how the rest were wishy-washy crap? You must have because you quoted them!

@Madge - am I write in my understanding that naughty is scum, and nice is town?


Yes

@Madge - why am I on the naughty list? Why isn't Sabrar?

Surprise! Now you're both there. It's a gut feeling / etc sorry. (FWIW I had Sabrar added to the naughty list before I saw this question. Feel free to doubt this!)

aside: this is part of the reason i don't like doing lists - i am like the opposite of bessie, i don't pick things out, i just get the vibe of the thing (required Australian cultural education for y'all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMuh33BMZYY) - and I have used that clip to explain this before. so finding the "17 quotes that show that jimbob is scummy - #9 will SHOCK you!" just... doesn't come naturally to me. So hopefully this naughty/nice with minimal explanation will be seen more as a "Madge trying to help by giving some reads" rather than a "Madge not helping enough by not giving detailed enough reads"
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:54 am UTC

That last post made me 95% sure that I want to hear Madge's (and BoomFrog's) claim ASAP.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:19 am UTC

you will change your tone when you watch the full movie of "The Castle", truly the greatest innovation of Australian cinema
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