Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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bessie
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:18 am UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:Yeah, sorry about that. I was curious if playing mafia here would once again be enjoyable for me (I played in bunches of games back in 2009 and 2010). I'm not sure why, but I have not had the motivation to get immersed in this game. So, I will endeavor to be more active in this game, but realistically I am likely not going to be composing super long and detailed posts.
I’m not expecting long detailed posts, and every post doesn’t need to be a masterpiece of logic and of composition. Plus as I’ve been saying since at least D2, I’m suspicious that some of the heavy posting has been to distract. However, we do need you to contribute more than you have. It’s difficult to get a read on you if you only post every three days. And I’m quite disappointed that you missed the entire weekend, especially because I thought you were implying in this post that you would be contributing something besides a drive-by vote on someone on whom you previously only had a 60% scum lean.

MasterOfAll wrote:Regarding No-Lynch, I don't see any benefit from it in this scenario where we have a confirmed townie. On the other hand, NL should be a no-brainer tomorrow (if we get there).
Agree, there are no powers in the game besides Sabrar’s. D6 would be a repeat of D5 but without Sabrar. But we can see if / when Hari returns. He didn’t give us the days he would be gone, just that it would be five days this week.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:38 am UTC

It's the morning and not a good posting time for me, but good news - I am off work for a bit starting on Friday, so my "weekend" is longer than usual. So you should see more from me starting then.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:28 am UTC

bessie wrote:I unvoted because if MoA did show up and voted for flicky, jimbob could hammer.
Why were you afraid of jimbob hammering 3 hours before deadline? Wouldn't that have given us a lot of info?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:47 am UTC

I'm a bit hesitant about this but it's like 90% sure we can discard bessie+cemper/MOA.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:47 pm UTC

(posting from work) I think tonight I should pick one or two potential pairs and analyse them, and then once I'm done with work tomorrow I will start going through the other pairs. (Six pairs FMPOV of course)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:26 pm UTC

I'm about 80% convinced that it's not bessie+flicky. Which means that there must be scum in {Hari Seldon, LaserGuy}.

Also originally I thought that I would summarize my findings towards the end of the day only to allow everyone else to make independent analysis. However I realized that in doing so I would allow scum the opportunity to question my reads after I was NK-d and not having to get into an argument with me (assuming there is a D6). So I'm planning to publish my main thoughts tomorrow (depending on amount of work).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:38 pm UTC

Posting what I have so far as I found the time to write it up.
Spoiler:
Some thoughts on why early bussing is an unlikely scum-tactic in this particular setup

Being the driver of a D1 scum-lynch earns you huge townie-points (ref: yours truly in Crossover), however in the current setup there are significant
mitigating factors.
1. No matter how townie you look you can still be caught by the Watcher in which case nothing you did earlier will matter.
2. Best scenario for scum would be 2 mislynches followed by NL while NK hits only PR-s. This leaves for D4 3 VT, 1 PR and 3 scum which provides the best chances to get another mislynch. Anytime town lynches correctly it will prolong the game for another day, meaning both 1 more chance for PR-s to get a good result and both forcing scum to commit to another NK which will in turn potentially reduce the size of the lynch-pool for future days (or allow a Doc-save which gives Town another opportunity to survive a mislynch).
3. Scum's only way of dealing with PR-s is by killing them. Pushing the wagon on a team-mate (if picked up by Town) means that PR-s will not come under suspicion and will not be forced to claim. This is in direct contradiction with scum's intentions to PR-hunt.

Conclusion: I think we can safely assume that a D1 serious and prolonged attack by A on B excludes the possibility of {A,B} being a scum-team. Note that the attack must be well-documented to count, we really shouldn't take into consideration situations when A attacks B for a day, switches to C later and finally rests on D towards the end of day.
I think the following can be considered relevant for the above exercise:
- cemper's attack on flicky,
- Hari's attack on LaserGuy and
- flicky having LaserGuy and PW as his bottom two early on and not changing his mind.

Onto another point: I'm discarding bessie+cemper based on cemper's early suspicion of bessie and the general tone on how they communicated overall. Here I cannot point to any specific content, it's an overall impression. The 10% uncertainty comes entirely from this post which is a complete turn-around and theoretically could have been planned from the start.

I'm discarding bessie+flicky based on an overall impression coupled with how they both attacked PW on D1 and how frustrated bessie became with flicky. Obviously this last part could have been planned and faked, hence the bigger uncertainty.

If we accept all of the above then any remaining scum-team must include either Hari or LaserGuy with the team-mate coming from the other 3.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Why were you afraid of jimbob hammering 3 hours before deadline? Wouldn't that have given us a lot of info?
Perhaps. But then BoomFrog wouldn’t have had an opportunity to post before end of day. His last post at the time I unvoted was here.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:11 pm UTC

Quick thoughts on pairings, sorted in order of likelihood:

LaserGuy/Hari
LaserGuy/bessie
LaserGuy/flicky
LaserGuy/MoA

flicky/MoA - Extremely unlikely. At least one of these players has probably townslipped. It's very unlikely that both townslips are false, IMHO. Moreover, cemper tunneled flicky for half of D1, all of D2, and most of D3 until his replacement.

flicky/bessie - Unlikely. flicky pushed bessie a lot in D3/D4. I don't know that I believe flicky/bessie would both push PW in D1.

bessie/MoA - Possible. cemper spent made a lot of meta reads on bessie that I do not feel were justified in the slightest. This may have been an excuse to clear his buddy early in the game. OTOH, bessie argued with cemper a fair bit over these same reads, so this is kind of a wash for me without a full reread.

MoA/Hari - Possible. Not really any strong interactions here either way. I can't rule this out, but there's nothing really to support it either beyond PoE.

flicky/Hari - Possible. This combination nicely explains interactions on the D1 lynch (Hari trying to no lynch to escape the trap of being forced to choose which of his buddies to lynch). Hari's interactions with flicky and PW are fairly similar... in both cases he has minimal commentary on them aside from answering easy questions, and essentially keeps them out of his initial point-based analysis beyond giving flicky some free townie points at the start. Contrast Vicarin, who Hari scumread quite aggressively early on.

bessie/Hari - FMPOV, if flicky/cemper both townslipped, this is the only viable combination of players that could be scum.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:43 pm UTC

Hard to describe it better but enmity between bessie and LaserGuy feels genuine (with the caveat that they are both good enough to fake it).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:06 pm UTC

I'll look at bessie/Hari first since they are the two I wasn't specifically town-reading.

In my previous team analysis I pointed out they kept moving each other up and down their lists, although I think I misrepresented it at the time. In D1, Hari has a "secret meta read" on bessie that makes her town, and bessie's analysis of Hari is to call him observant. Yes, she pretty much says one word about him (other than when she vaguely speculates on what the meta read could be). She doesn't analyse him again until D4, where she has him as strongly townie. Hari drops bessie to scum in D2, back to strong town in D3, and reveals his secret town read on D4 (ignoring people she's not tunneling, e.g. Hari!).

I could see this team being a thing - I know I can't exactly call someone out for a lack of reads, but given the number of comments they have on other people there is a lack of talking about each other here.

As promised, will go through all the other team possibilities on Friday and Saturday (and maybe Thursday night).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:24 pm UTC

Going through full rereads, starting on Hari...

Hari Seldon

Earlier, I read Hari Seldon as townie largely because I felt that his obsession with the "Squints at this" post was likely town-motivated. I've seen townies do this sort of thing before, and have done it myself. His tone in some of his posts, especially this one feels very townie to me.

As I've noted earlier, I find Hari's D1 point assignment system to be much more arbitrary than his previous iteration in Hallowe'en (see, e.g. here). While I can accept that he was trying to simplify his approach a bit in a newbie game, here he only selectively comments on certain players and not on others, which will naturally bias all of his observations. Just as a few examples, here, he applies a penalty to me claiming that a townread on woof!BoomFrog cannot be justified, but does not apply a similar penalties to bessie, jimbob, or Sabrar, for townreading BoomFrog for this as well. flicky receives townie credit for his RVS vote, and is otherwise ignored in the scoring system entirely; bessie receives townie credit only for the secret meta read (more on this later), and is otherwise ignored. PW is ignored entirely. BoomFrog is mostly ignored. Hari likewise avoids analysing PW here. Even though he comments on PW's BoomFrog ISO, in his later discussion with BoomFrog about his woof reads in the same, he doesn't mention PW at all. Hari comments on what he's trying to do with PW here. Quoted in full:
Hari Seldon wrote:This is a very good observation and further leads me to think you are reading deeply. I am intentionally being more reserved in my reactions toward Peaceful Whale. I believe it was a mistake to press so hard on him early on in Halloween. I want to give him room to play. He was also targeted early on in Crossover, and became much easier to read later on when people had let up on him.

Retrospectively, this does not look great.

There's an interesting interaction between PW and Hari here where PW asks Hari to explain his scoring system. As an aside, first I note that this is on Page 3, which Hari himself has suggested is where scum will typically ask their partners a non-trivial question. More interesting is what PW thinks about this compared to his read on Hari in Hallowe'en, which is much more lucid:
Peaceful Whale wrote:His posting style is similar to boomfrog’s, I know boomfrog likes his math and graphs, (crossover). Also, I’d Hari a new person? I haven’t seen him anywhere but here. And the zero count forum.
It’s easy for him to hide behind his wall of text and math stuff. And becuase few people can understand all of it, it’s really easy for him to lead town. If this begins to happen, go back and reread his stuff, see if anything looks off. I know he put me as the scummiest, even though I’m town. I guess I just have a VERY scummy meta... oh well. So be careful, he’s actually my 3rd scummiest just becuase how easily he can trick town if he’s scum.


This isn't necessarily indicative, but I'm going to note that Hari's reads list here has confirmed townies as, FMPOV, his top six scumreads, and gives quite generous townreads to Peaceful Whale, bessie, cemper, and flicky.

Hari makes his commentary on the "slip" business in the same post. It's interesting to note that he asks bessie/jimbob/somitomi for feedback on this, and while all of them indicate they feel PW's post was null (bessie less so than the others), none of the other players make the connection to Hallowe'en mafia that Hari was apparently interested in. Hari never comments on the fact that none of the other players he questioned on this drew this connection, but persists with his case anyway. I kind of feel that this is a point against bessie/Hari as a team as it seems to me that bessie ought to have known what Hari was wanting to get out of this.

There's also an aside to this that I can't quite make sense of. In Hari's analysis of the slip point here in relation to Hallowe'en mafia, he's actually referring to the wrong part of Hallowe'en. In Hallowe'en, PW made a comment in one post, and immediately corrected it that only appeared to change the grammar. This appears to be what Hari was referring to in the linked section, but the actual slip that I had assumed Hari was referring to, and that I commented on in Hallowe'en, was not to this grammar point at all, but rather a subsequent post. I do not understand how Hari would get this wrong, and can't really read this one way or the other.

About the bessie meta read. Here it is in full
Spoiler:
Hari Seldon wrote:Bessie is known for her tunneling, but there is a reverse side to this: she only lightly touches upon people outside of her radar. In other words, Town Bessie is so focused on her Scum reads, that her Town reads are hardly addressed. I had taken notice of this in her past two Town games, because her ordered read lists appeared arbitrary to me on the Town side. I realized this is because she doesn't really take time out to go into her Town reads (and instead focuses on jabbing at her Scum reads and explaining the discourse between them). I noticed immediately when she had deviated from this in Santa—in her reaction to Sabrar on the bottom of this post. She continued this pattern here, here, and here. Her analysis of Sabrar in the last link had no purpose other than to show that she was "thinking" about her read, because there was no new output of information. You could basically think of her post as a black box with the input "Sabrar = Town" and the output of "Sabrar = Town".

I have been trying to figure out how to parse this in a way that actually makes sense to me. At the outset, HS says that bessie usually tunnels (I agree), and rarely makes a significant effort to sort her townreads (I agree). He then points to, in Secret Santa, where bessie ignores reading Sabrar, simply putting him as town and claiming to be "thinking about it". I do not see how this is alignment indicative, since Hari says immediately above that she doesn't really spend a lot of time sorting her townreads, which would be consistent with her simply putting Sabrar as town repeatedly. This doesn't look like a genuine tell to me, and I'm not sure I understand why Hari thinks it is one. There is another problem with this, namely that Hari is townreading bessie using this tell based on her content as of Page 4. By the end of page four, bessie had posted three times, not including her confirmation post, so it does not seem to me that there is any way that Hari could be using this to read her since presumably something like this would require a pattern of behaviour. In his explanation of the read, he claims that he first noticed this tell on bessie on a post on page 11 of Secret Santa, and the supporting posts are on 12 and 13 (which, incidentally, also feel too close together to me to be really drawing the conclusions that he did), so townreading her for this on Page 4 feels extremely premature to me. I do not believe that this is a real read.

I think there is a plausible case for scum!Hari here. I feel bessie is most likely a partner, though I can see flicky as a possibility given the similar ways that Hari treated both players. cemper/MoA is awkward since Hari hasn't really interacted with him much to speak of. PoE says he's very likely scum, but I am not positive, particularly due to the townie aspects noted above, as well as his interaction with the PW wagon, where, for non-buddy flicky, it would be a deliberate bus without necessarily any hope of avoiding the lynch. Hari may well be ruthless enough to do this anyway, but I am far from certain.

Also, last, and probably least:
PW wrote:Hari Seldon I don’t think I’ve seen a lot of him in this thread.

*Squints at this*. Is this a slip?
....
....
:twisted:

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:36 pm UTC

:lol:

I was just beginning to accept a bessie+Hari scum-team until LaserGuy came in and started misrepresenting some of Hari's content.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:39 pm UTC

Where do you feel I'm misrepresenting him?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:10 pm UTC

Let's see an example:
LaserGuy wrote:There's an interesting interaction between PW and Hari here where PW asks Hari to explain his scoring system. As an aside, first I note that this is on Page 3, which Hari himself has suggested is where scum will typically ask their partners a non-trivial question.

For reference here is the original:
C) It is not likely that Wam would ask this if Wam and JimBob were Mafia partners. There is a high statistical rate that a Mafia will ask their partner a serious question within the first three pages. There is a low statistical rate that a Mafia will ask their partner a pseudoserious question during RVS. The smaller the player size, the less value this has. This goes for all positive town points stemming from player interactions. [0.1]

And a bit later
D) This is a rather aggressive response to a question that wasn't accusatory. There is a high statistical rate that a Mafia will ask their partner a serious question within the first three pages. There is also a high statistical rate that a Mafia will display unwarranted aggression toward their partner during Day 1. I have both of these vibes from this post. [-1]

So you clearly looked it up and noted that Hari used the explanation in a different way in Halloween wrt wam (because it concerned a light-hearted question in contrast with a serious one) and he was wrong about this exact type of read wrt bessie (because she was town). And now you're using this 'read' to justify throwing suspicion to a Hari-PW connection.
Not to mention that you're using Hari's own theory against him. Not to mention that you're applying the theory to PW.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:15 pm UTC

Actually, I was basing this on his comment from this game:
Hari Seldon wrote:This question by Peaceful Whale is rather spontaneous. I also get a partner vibe from this (Bessie made the same observation). Mafia are highly inclined to ask their partner's questions like these early on. Example. (Vicarin, [-0.2])


PW's question here, btw, was whether Vicarin had mafia experience. PW's question about the scoring system feels fairly equivalent to me.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:20 pm UTC

Same thing, you know that there was no partner vibe to be found in PW's question to Vicarin but you assume there was wrt Hari.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:35 pm UTC

On the contrary, I definitely think there is a partner vibe in this interaction. I just get it mostly from the part that I call "more interesting" rather than the part I call "an aside". To spell it out, based on the quote from Hallowe'en I pointed to, I actually feel that PW has a much better understanding of the purpose of Hari's scoring system than what his question here would seem to indicate, and therefore feel it to be more likely a buddy interaction.

The fact that it is also during the period where mafia are apparently more likely to ask their partners questions is noteworthy, but not the primary basis of my concern.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:52 pm UTC

Actually, assuming the correlation does exist, I think this tell would be more reliable now, given that we know one of the players is scum, rather than the way Hari uses it. Signal to noise is much better.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:02 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Actually, assuming the correlation does exist,
This is your problem right here. You're using a 'tell' that was never demonstrated to be accurate to support your theory.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:31 pm UTC

So how is that misrepresenting him? Hari believes this tell is real (since he mentioned it as Town), and I'm using it in a manner that is consistent with how he is using it.

Incidentally, a quick skim of some previous games does suggest that this happens somewhat often, though whether it happens more often than chance is a bit more work to figure out than I'm willing to put in:
Spoiler:
SS day 1, scum!bessie asks scum!jimbob a serious question Page 2.

Crossover day 1, scum!heury asks scum!moody a serious question Page 1.

Shakespeare day 1, scum!YOLO asks a serious question to scum!Dethstalker page 1 and another on page 3. Scum!plytho also asks a serious question to scum!LaserGuy on Page 1.

Scum!LaserGuy, scum!jimbob, and scum!SDK all do this to each other on Page 1 on Dark Tower.

[This technically also happens in Diablo and WoT2, but in both of those cases scum!you are asking a bunch of people that happen to include your buddy, about their experience, so I chose not to count it]

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Hari Seldon » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:45 am UTC

I will be home the day after tomorrow, but I will try to at least catch up on reading tonight. Thank you all so much for your understanding.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:20 am UTC

Ok, for me there are 6 possible scum pairings to consider. I will start with the scummiest 2 players left from my D4 list first (the list with jimbob as scummiest which shows how totally skilled I am at this).

LaserGuy + Hari

On D1, Hari targest LG as scummiest. LG includes Hari on his list of 3 scummiest (along w/ Sabrar and cemper/me). But there wasn't actually much interaction between them on D1.
On D2, some interaction about scum gaining info from ordered lists and which players would be likeliest to have bussed PW. LG has moves away from Hari as one of scummiest. Hari still finds LG scummiest. LG returns to having Hari as possible scum by end of D2.
On D3, LG initially has Hari listed as 'crafty scum'. Hari still finds LG scummiest. LG lists possible pairings, only one that includes Hari is Hari+bessie. LG gives Hari town cred for tunneling on him. By end of D3, LG has Hari listed as town.
On D4, LG doesn't mention Hari much. Hari moves LG away from being scummiest, but still possible scum.
On D5, Hari has been away so far. LG lists his possible scum teams, and the 3 that include Hari are possible, possible, and most likely.

Conclusion: Not impossible, but unlikely that these 2 are teammates. Hari's multi-day tunneling on LG and LG's flip-flopping on Hari don't seem to be scum-scum interaction.


I was hoping I would get through more than 1 pairing tonight, but I am starting to fall asleep so that's all it's gonna be for now.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Hari Seldon » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:37 am UTC

PoE suggests Laser and MOA. I am going to do a full reread, but I've reevaluated my Bessie and Flicky read a number of times already and I feel pretty confident about them. I've had Cemper as a Town read since early on, but I've lost track about what pinged me about him. I think we are giving too much merit to the town slip. It is certainly something that could have been faked. Even new scum is able to fake town slips, and Cemper had previous experience. MOA has provided nothing of value since he has been in the game. And while I sympathize with replacing into a high content game and with being sick, I feel there has been an adequate enough time to develop more thoughts than what he provided. The reasoning in his read post comes off to me as half assed (literally only half of his reads have reasoning behind them).

There is one scenario though that I see for Scum Flicky, which I will get to when I do a full analysis.

Some Questions:

-Laser, could you remind me which slips you are clearing Flicky for.
-MOA, which posts of Bessie's give you strong town feelings? Which of Laser's posts came off as aggressive to you? Why do you think it is important for Cemper's read to influence yours?

I will respond to Laser's post next and that will probably be all until I get back.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Hari Seldon » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:11 am UTC

-My penalty wasn't because you Town read Boom for his woof posts, but because you Scum read Cemper for it.

-Regarding point assignment, my goal this game was to simplify my analysis. In Halloween I did a lot of line by line analysis, which often ended up with zero-point values. I wanted to avoid giving NAI values unless it was to specifically point out that something others were reading as AI should be read as NAI. Furthermore, I did my best to avoid giving out points that I believed had a good chance of being canceled out later.

-Regarding PW asking me to explain my scoring system. PW never asked me to explain my scoring system.

-Regarding PW's read on me in Halloween. That's a insincere comparison as PW was Town in that game.

-I am confused on your aside. Are you saying that you were not refering to the same thing I was. If so, what were you referring to? My interpretation was that you were refering to the entire situation. I am not certain what else you would have found suspicious.

-On Bessie meta. This is interesting. You've quite obviously misinterpreted my post. I am not certain if this is intentional or if you just did not really read it. I am curious to see if you can come to grips with the correct interpretation on your own.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Suzaku » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:18 am UTC

Current Votals:

None

Not voting: bessie, flicky1991, Hari Seldon, LaserGuy, MasterOfAll, Sabrar

This. Is. Sparta MYLO.

With 6 alive hammer requires 4 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
No deadline has been set as yet.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
Last edited by Suzaku on Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:35 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:55 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:though whether it happens more often than chance is a bit more work to figure out than I'm willing to put in:
So you're deliberately not looking at evidence that could prove you wrong. Is cemper scum?

@all: I really don't want to sound I'm lecturing (my reads are wrong more often than not so who am I to talk) but I feel there is a fundamental aspect of the game that gets ignored. Any proposed scum-team has to explain the entirety of the game, not just some elements we choose to focus on. For example I don't think Hari can be scum with anyone other than flicky, else this just doesn't make any sense.
So please when you next consider your scum-teams look at every piece of interaction out there and ask yourselves whether it is reasonable in that light.

I've narrowed the field down to {cemper/MOA, LaserGuy} or {flicky, Hari}. I need to re-read the former before coming to a conclusion.

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bessie
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:08 am UTC

I’ve been busy tonight so I only have a few minutes. I should be completely free and have hours available tomorrow night.

LaserGuy wrote:bessie/Hari - FMPOV, if flicky/cemper both townslipped, this is the only viable combination of players that could be scum.
Your choice for the scum team is not based on their past 38 pages of content, including their interactions with confirmed scum, but because everyone else has made a townslip? I’ve already stated that I think that too much emphasis has been placed on clearing players over townslips instead of analyzing their content, see here for one example, I probably said it other places too, but whatever.

flicky1991 wrote:I'll look at bessie/Hari first since they are the two I wasn't specifically town-reading.
Convenient, same picks as LaserGuy.

flicky1991 wrote:I could see this team being a thing - I know I can't exactly call someone out for a lack of reads, but given the number of comments they have on other people there is a lack of talking about each other here.
Most of my posting early in the game was replying to questions directed at me and analyzing content that I found interesting. I don’t think that I did separate reads of you, or jimbob, or Sabrar either early in the game (will check on this later). Interesting that you find my lack of interaction with Hari as possible indication that we are scum partners. How do you read my interaction with Peaceful Whale?

Will pick up with LaserGuy’s analysis of Hari tomorrow.

Ninja’d by Sabrar while I was typing this up.

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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:37 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Convenient, same picks as LaserGuy.
If you would care to look at my read lists for the last couple of game days it's pretty clear you and Hari were scummiest for me. There are four possible scum left FMPOV and the other two have been my towniest reads for quite some time.

bessie wrote:Interesting that you find my lack of interaction with Hari as possible indication that we are scum partners. How do you read my interaction with Peaceful Whale?
Haven't I made it pretty clear what my views on you/PW are? This was just about you/Hari. And your strategy for interacting with each of your scum-partners need not be the same so the implied inconsistency you're looking for isn't there. I have five more pairings to read through so don't take my post as anything close to a certainty that you two are scum.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:42 pm UTC

bessie wrote:I’ve been busy tonight so I only have a few minutes. I should be completely free and have hours available tomorrow night.

LaserGuy wrote:bessie/Hari - FMPOV, if flicky/cemper both townslipped, this is the only viable combination of players that could be scum.
Your choice for the scum team is not based on their past 38 pages of content, including their interactions with confirmed scum, but because everyone else has made a townslip? I’ve already stated that I think that too much emphasis has been placed on clearing players over townslips instead of analyzing their content, see here for one example, I probably said it other places too, but whatever.


Oh, don't worry, I'm going to analyse everyone's content. That was just my starting point for today. I don't actually agree with this in principle though. Narrowing the field is very, very useful to Town at this stage of the game.

Hari Seldon wrote:-My penalty wasn't because you Town read Boom for his woof posts, but because you Scum read Cemper for it.


This isn't true at all. I was scum reading cemper because I didn't like his questioning of Sabrar and jimbob. See here and here.

Hari Seldon wrote:-Laser, could you remind me which slips you are clearing Flicky for.


I'm not clearing flicky for any townslips at this point. There are a few things in his content that look like they could be, but I am far more uncertain about him than I am of cemper. See here, for example.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:though whether it happens more often than chance is a bit more work to figure out than I'm willing to put in:
So you're deliberately not looking at evidence that could prove you wrong. Is cemper scum?


Do you understand that the term "statistical correlation" means? Anyway, no, I'm not going to put in hours of work doing a statistical analysis of a bunch of games trying to demonstrate a minor point in my case. I have better uses for my time. Sure, it might be a shitty tell.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:02 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Do you understand that the term "statistical correlation" means?
As a matter of fact I do.

My problem is that I'm always second-guessing myself. Let's not do that any more.

Vote: LaserGuy

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:46 pm UTC

*sigh*.

No, your problem as Town is that you don't second guess yourself enough. You get locked into reads and don't change them even when evidence to the contrary presents itself. You lost Shakespeare mafia for the same reason.

Even though it is only MYLO, you really ought to unvote.

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bessie
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:42 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:And your strategy for interacting with each of your scum-partners need not be the same so the implied inconsistency you're looking for isn't there.
True, scum!me isn’t necessarily going to interact with my theoretical partners in the same way. You have me as partners with Hari for low interaction and for not focusing on him in my reads. You have me as partners with Peaceful Whale, and I interacted with him a lot. So what are your criteria for labeling my interaction levels scummy? Hmm, I’ve been thinking about this (my interactions with Hari) today, and wine but I’m not going to use my limited time analyzing content with which I agree, and digging deep on a town read. I don’t see the point in doing a long detailed read of someone only to start or end each sentence with “I agree with this”. And less point in making a page of quotes just to agree with someone’s content, which in my opinion gets into the area of active lurking. See here.
bessie wrote:So, what would you consider active lurking? Does quoting a block of text and attaching “+1”, “dude, you read my mind”, or “QFT” count as content?

This has me thinking about Hari's meta read, and I don’t think I was ever fully consciously aware of what Hari pointed out, but it may represent a recent development, see reasons here. Or maybe not. I will need to think about it.

LaserGuy wrote:Oh, don't worry, I'm going to analyse everyone's content. That was just my starting point for today. I don't actually agree with this in principle though. Narrowing the field is very, very useful to Town at this stage of the game.
Yes, and that’s what I’m doing too, but I'm taking the opposite approach as you. I am looking at the big picture first, and from there I will make my cuts. It seems to me that you are starting with your goal, see here:
LaserGuy wrote:bessie/Hari - FMPOV, if flicky/cemper both townslipped, this is the only viable combination of players that could be scum.
Then you are using this as your starting point for your reads. Your read on Hari here reads like it was written to support your goal, not to discover the truth. I’m still thinking about whether or not your method is more a philosophical difference between the way you and I approach the game, or if it is scummy. I would lean scummy, were it not for something Sabrar pointed out that to me is similar in my mind. I still do not understand what pinged him about this post, and I have been pondering it for almost three weeks (see here, here, here, and here). So I’m wondering if it really is just a difference in style.

This is also somewhat related to a question flicky asked me, and jimbob asked him about, and I said I too was interested in his response, then it was the end of D4. Anyway, there’s a bunch of things I could quote but I’ll pull out mine here.
bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: @flicky - you highlighted bessie not treating Sabrar as confirmed town on D3, but she never responded and you never followed up on this. A) Why did you not follow up, and b), what were your thoughts when you asked this question?
I would be interested in seeing flicky’s response to this. Reference this post.

flicky’s response here.
flicky1991 wrote:a) I forgot about it. b) Just that I was considering him confirmed town and didn't understand why anyone else wouldn't.
flicky also completely misunderstood my original post (my BoomDog analysis here). [Note: I think Sabrar misunderstood that post too and I still don’t know what he expected from me.] Sabrar being confirmed town has nothing to do with that analysis, it was from a neutral point of view, starting with the big picture and considering all possibilities. So again, is this scummy or just a difference in the way flicky and I analyze and read? And I am still thinking about this too.

flicky1991 wrote:Even though it is only MYLO, you really ought to unvote.
Why are you worried? Scum can’t quick hammer with just Sabrar voting.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:00 am UTC

bessie wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:Even though it is only MYLO, you really ought to unvote.
Why are you worried? Scum can’t quick hammer with just Sabrar voting.
I didn't say that. That was Laser.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:01 pm UTC

Hey, you read my post! :D

And had nothing else to say about it! :(

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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:09 pm UTC

I didn't have time for a long post then, I was just commenting on the thing I immediately noticed was wrong.

bessie wrote:So what are your criteria for labeling my interaction levels scummy?
All I've said is that you and Hari seem like a possible team, and that I'm going to go through all the other combinations and see which pairs are possible teams. It might turn out that another combination seems more obviously suspicious on reading them through. I don't believe I've called you scummy since I did my re-read of your interactions with PW.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:15 pm UTC

Just posting to say that I didn't have any time last night to play (it was poker night; I won $70) but hopefully I won't be too tired when I get home from work today and can spend some time continuing to look at possible scum pairings and also respond to Hari's questions. Also, this weekend should be much less busy for me than last weekend so my plan is to get through all possibly scum pairings by Sunday.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:18 pm UTC

EBWOP (ninja'd): Since I realise my wording of my posts reading bessie might not have been clear given her reaction, let me just make everything explicit:
  • I am not currently reading bessie specifically as scum - I was doing so before, until LaserGuy prompted me to re-read her.
  • I chose bessie/Hari as my first possible scum team to analyse because I had been reading the other two still-possible scum (LaserGuy and MoA) as town, and I've analysed bessie/Hari before which made it easier to get that read done quickly. I definitely don't consider them to be the scum team, and I plan to do reads of the other five possible teams.
If I don't get around to the other five analyses tonight I will definitely get them done tomorrow.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:05 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Oh, don't worry, I'm going to analyse everyone's content. That was just my starting point for today. I don't actually agree with this in principle though. Narrowing the field is very, very useful to Town at this stage of the game.


Yes, and that’s what I’m doing too, but I'm taking the opposite approach as you. I am looking at the big picture first, and from there I will make my cuts. It seems to me that you are starting with your goal, see here:
LaserGuy wrote:bessie/Hari - FMPOV, if flicky/cemper both townslipped, this is the only viable combination of players that could be scum.
Then you are using this as your starting point for your reads.


As far as I'm concerned, this is the big picture for today:
Spoiler:
flicky/MoA - Extremely unlikely. At least one of these players has probably townslipped. It's very unlikely that both townslips are false, IMHO. Moreover, cemper tunneled flicky for half of D1, all of D2, and most of D3 until his replacement.

flicky/bessie - Unlikely. flicky pushed bessie a lot in D3/D4. I don't know that I believe flicky/bessie would both push PW in D1.

bessie/MoA - Possible. cemper spent made a lot of meta reads on bessie that I do not feel were justified in the slightest. This may have been an excuse to clear his buddy early in the game. OTOH, bessie argued with cemper a fair bit over these same reads, so this is kind of a wash for me without a full reread.

MoA/Hari - Possible. Not really any strong interactions here either way. I can't rule this out, but there's nothing really to support it either beyond PoE.

flicky/Hari - Possible. This combination nicely explains interactions on the D1 lynch (Hari trying to no lynch to escape the trap of being forced to choose which of his buddies to lynch). Hari's interactions with flicky and PW are fairly similar... in both cases he has minimal commentary on them aside from answering easy questions, and essentially keeps them out of his initial point-based analysis beyond giving flicky some free townie points at the start. Contrast Vicarin, who Hari scumread quite aggressively early on.

bessie/Hari - FMPOV, if flicky/cemper both townslipped, this is the only viable combination of players that could be scum.

You're misrepresenting me by only focusing on the last line.

Your read on Hari here reads like it was written to support your goal, not to discover the truth. I’m still thinking about whether or not your method is more a philosophical difference between the way you and I approach the game, or if it is scummy. I would lean scummy, were it not for something Sabrar pointed out that to me is similar in my mind. I still do not understand what pinged him about this post, and I have been pondering it for almost three weeks (see here, here, here, and here). So I’m wondering if it really is just a difference in style.


I always find discussions of self-meta to be soaked in wine, so I don't really want to delve too much into this until postgame, but I think that if you're looking for clinical objectivity, that's probably more jimbob's purview. My approach is more prosecutorial... if I think you're scum, I'm going to advance the strongest case on you that I feel I can, because I want you to see how well you defend yourself.

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Even though it is only MYLO, you really ought to unvote.


Why are you worried? Scum can’t quick hammer with just Sabrar voting.


It relates to my feelings about the nature of the scum team. You can probably infer it from my opinions on the wagons here, or perhaps in my discussion with jimbob at the bottom of these two posts. Ask me again sometime closer to end of day if this is still bothering you.


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