Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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wam
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby wam » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:24 pm UTC

Current Votals:

Laserguy - 1 (Sabrar)

Not voting: bessie, flicky1991, Hari Seldon, LaserGuy, MasterOfAll,

This. Is. Sparta MYLO.

With 6 alive hammer requires 4 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:35 pm UTC

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Vote: MasterOfAll

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:37 am UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:Also, this weekend should be much less busy for me than last weekend so my plan is to get through all possibly scum pairings by Sunday.
Pairings aside, do you have any actual scum reads?

flicky1991 wrote:I chose bessie/Hari as my first possible scum team to analyse because I had been reading the other two still-possible scum (LaserGuy and MoA) as town, and I've analysed bessie/Hari before which made it easier to get that read done quickly. I definitely don't consider them to be the scum team, and I plan to do reads of the other five possible team
Since when do you not consider me and Hari to be the scum team? That wasn’t the conclusion you drew from your analysis.
flicky1991 wrote:I could see this team being a thing - I know I can't exactly call someone out for a lack of reads, but given the number of comments they have on other people there is a lack of talking about each other here.


LaserGuy wrote: I always find discussions of self-meta to be soaked in wine, so I don't really want to delve too much into this until postgame, but I think that if you're looking for clinical objectivity, that's probably more jimbob's purview. My approach is more prosecutorial... if I think you're scum, I'm going to advance the strongest case on you that I feel I can, because I want you to see how well you defend yourself.
I think you’re missing my point. I am not questioning your approach in theory as much as I am questioning your objectivity in selecting your scum targets. I think prosecutorial does describe your method, as it is a goal based approach.

I will try to have a read on everyone today, I’m not getting very far on pairs though. Maybe the pairs will be easier after individual reads.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:00 am UTC

Very good points.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:54 am UTC

bessie wrote:Since when do you not consider me and Hari to be the scum team?
This is why I posted another post to make my meaning clearer, but apparently you still don't get it. "I could see this team being a thing" is nowhere near "This is the scum team". It just means I see no reason to rule that team out.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:00 am UTC

And I know the rest of my team-reads are kind of late. This evening for sure.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:52 pm UTC

LaserGuy/MoA analysis: Laser has been alternating between having cemper/MoA as town or scum all game. cemper initially counted LG as town but then put him in his bottom three by D3, and MoA seems to have been generally scumreading Laser.

I think these two aren't likely to be a team mainly due to the consistent scumreads on LG from cemper/MoA from D3 onwards, but I'd like to hear what LaserGuy has to say about his changing opinions on cemper/MoA:
LaserGuy wrote:I still have town on cemper
This quote from D3 seems to be the first time you show a townie inclination on cemper - you were reading as scum or "meh" until then, and suddenly he's "still" town. Then later he's in two of your four "possible scum pairings", but later still in D3 he's "very likely town". Then cemper/flicky is added to the likely teams now that I'm not as likely town for you any more, but then later "I think scum is either flicky/jimbob or bessie/MoA at this point". Laser, what's your current opinion on cemper/MoA? If the answer is "scummy" or "townie", what changed your mind about the other half of your points on him?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:04 pm UTC

@flicky: D3 was when scum really needed to start bussing each other. I think you should put more weight into D1/D2 behavior.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:12 pm UTC

I see what you mean. Well, they that would mean just LG having cemper as scum and cemper having LG as town, as far as I could see. Not enough interaction that early on to make strong conclusions, although I don't think cemper-buddy Laser would have said this: "Noting that cemper was reading the thread earlier but didn't post despite being pinged to do so."
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:23 pm UTC

Good point.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:35 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Also, last, and probably least:
PW wrote:Hari Seldon I don’t think I’ve seen a lot of him in this thread.

*Squints at this*. Is this a slip?
Something has been in the back of my mind about Peaceful Whale/Hari since D3, but it’s not the same thing that LaserGuy pointed out. Here’s what I’ve previously said about Peaceful Whale’s original quote, see here:
bessie wrote:Refer to this post.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Hari Seldon I don’t think I’ve seen a lot of him in this thread. Sadly it appears he’s not boomfrog’s alter ego.
This is a very odd comment. Peaceful Whale (apparently) can’t remember content from earlier in the current game, but he remembers a one-off remark from two months ago that was in the Gojoe thread. Possibilities: PW is scum with Hari, PW is scum with BoomFrog, someone (LaserGuy?) was talking about Hari in chat.

Hari’s response here.
Hari Seldon wrote: @Bessie, I was referring to later on D1. Also with regard to the one off remark, that isn't correct. PW thought I was BoomFrog in Halloween.

Rereading Halloween and the related Gojoe posts, I don’t think this is correct. I think I was right, it was LaserGuy, not Peaceful Whale, that thought Hari was BoomFrog. Maybe Peaceful Whale did too, but I don’t see how Hari made the connection based on only the content posted in the game and in Gojoe, which is this remark:
Peaceful Whale wrote:His posting style is similar to boomfrog’s, I know boomfrog likes his math and graphs, (crossover). Also, I’d Hari a new person? I haven’t seen him anywhere but here. And the zero count forum.
Note that this was also quoted by LaserGuy in this post, but to make a different point.

Also note that somewhere in this mountain of content there is something about whether or not Peaceful Whale understood Hari’s scoring system, and commented on it just to make noise. Peaceful Whale definitely did understand Hari’s scoring system, see this post.
Peaceful Whale wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:After, SDK has yet to contact me though

Thank you. Do you have any suspicions currently?

Sorry, it appears I have missed it.
[-1]

I think when I started writing this up more than an hour ago, I had a goal or conclusion, but I’ve lost it as rereading Halloween as led my mind astray, and I’m thinking more about the interactions between Hari and others in that game. I’m just going to post what I have now because I’m going out in a little while.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:46 pm UTC

(Damn it got so late on Saturday already. I will have to go quicker with my other team reads.)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:07 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote: MasterOfAll


This is where my vote will stay.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Hari Seldon » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:16 pm UTC

Laser wrote:I'm not clearing flicky for any townslips at this point. There are a few things in his content that look like they could be, but I am far more uncertain about him than I am of cemper. See here, for example.
To rephrase, which town slips are you referring to below?
LaserGuy wrote:flicky/MoA - Extremely unlikely. At least one of these players has probably townslipped. It's very unlikely that both townslips are false, IMHO. Moreover, cemper tunneled flicky for half of D1, all of D2, and most of D3 until his replacement.

bessie/Hari - FMPOV, if flicky/cemper both townslipped, this is the only viable combination of players that could be scum.

Also, did you reread the bessie post?

flicky1991 wrote:although I don't think cemper-buddy Laser would have said this: "Noting that cemper was reading the thread earlier but didn't post despite being pinged to do so."
I think it would be a mistake to assume so. It is not something that influenced anyone's reading of Cemper.

bessie wrote:Rereading Halloween and the related Gojoe posts, I don’t think this is correct. I think I was right, it was LaserGuy, not Peaceful Whale, that thought Hari was BoomFrog. Maybe Peaceful Whale did too, but I don’t see how Hari made the connection based on only the content posted in the game and in Gojoe, which is this remark:
Peaceful Whale wrote:His posting style is similar to boomfrog’s, I know boomfrog likes his math and graphs, (crossover). Also, I’d Hari a new person? I haven’t seen him anywhere but here. And the zero count forum.
Note that this was also quoted by LaserGuy in this post, but to make a different point.
Interesting. I'm certain he did. I will look for it after this. (I am not certain I understand the second half of your post. Let me know if there is something you would like addressed).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Hari Seldon » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:59 pm UTC

You are right, Bessie. My interpretation of PW's post was that he was passively hinting that he though I was Boom's alternate account. Laser agreeing with that and also having mentioned it in Gojoe reenforced that idea. I still think that is what he was doing, but it is not as unambiguous as I thought.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Hari Seldon » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:10 am UTC

@Bessie and @Sabrar what do you think of the possibility of a hard bus by Cemper on Flicky? I am very stumped by the N3 NK. If it was a No Kill, the only reason I see for this is if there was going to be a counter claim, which MOA, the only player who could have, did not. This would suggest then that it was a newbie mistake (Sabrar kill). This also goes in hand with the N2 kill. It may be that Scum weren't necessarily unafraid of Sabrar, but rather simply didn't think it through (although to their avail).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:26 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote: (I am not certain I understand the second half of your post. Let me know if there is something you would like addressed).
I thought that somewhere there was a discussion that Peaceful Whale was pretending not to understand your numbering, and how it relates to your theory about scum asking their partners questions on D1, but I can’t find it now, so I may be misremembering. I’m not sure what I’m remembering and misremembering any more, and with the volume it’s getting difficult to find things.

Hari Seldon wrote: @Bessie and @Sabrar what do you think of the possibility of a hard bus by Cemper on Flicky? I am very stumped by the N3 NK. If it was a No Kill, the only reason I see for this is if there was going to be a counter claim, which MOA, the only player who could have, did not. This would suggest then that it was a newbie mistake (Sabrar kill). This also goes in hand with the N2 kill. It may be that Scum weren't necessarily unafraid of Sabrar, but rather simply didn't think it through (although to their avail).
Neither cemper nor MasterOfAll are newbies, although both are coming back from long breaks of several years. I’ve already done analysis here as to how I could see the replacement accounting for differences in the N2 and N3 kills (aggressive vs cautious). I’m not ready to answer your question with reference to the teams yet, but I am suspicious that flicky is scum, and that clearing him D1 was maybe not unreasonable at the time, but that it is a mistake not to reexamine flicky’s content as a whole. I think that perhaps flicky and/or his partner has been overconfident in Sabrar clearing him on D1. Sabrar is quite stubborn about his early game meta reads, and on D1 scum!flicky and his partner could be fairly confident that Sabrar would stick to this read for at least a couple days, and not allow flicky to be lynched.

For my view on meta reads, see here (in spoiler) and here (at end). For arguments I’ve had with Sabrar about meta reads, see any previous game (links available upon request, or better just go to page 13 of X Men). For my skepticism about clearing, see here.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:21 am UTC

1. I've speculated about N3 here.
2. I've since decided that it's not relevant as scum didn't risk anything.
3. I've re-considered flicky multiple times and he's still my strongest town-read, independent of D1 meta-read.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:37 am UTC

4. I stand by my previous assessment, hard bussing D1 is extremely unlikely in this game.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:50 am UTC

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote: I always find discussions of self-meta to be soaked in wine, so I don't really want to delve too much into this until postgame, but I think that if you're looking for clinical objectivity, that's probably more jimbob's purview. My approach is more prosecutorial... if I think you're scum, I'm going to advance the strongest case on you that I feel I can, because I want you to see how well you defend yourself.


I think you’re missing my point. I am not questioning your approach in theory as much as I am questioning your objectivity in selecting your scum targets. I think prosecutorial does describe your method, as it is a goal based approach.


This is only because you are misconstruing my intentions, as I noted already. This isn't the first time this game you've deliberately misinterpreted me.

flicky1991 wrote:LaserGuy/MoA analysis: Laser has been alternating between having cemper/MoA as town or scum all game. cemper initially counted LG as town but then put him in his bottom three by D3, and MoA seems to have been generally scumreading Laser.

I think these two aren't likely to be a team mainly due to the consistent scumreads on LG from cemper/MoA from D3 onwards, but I'd like to hear what LaserGuy has to say about his changing opinions on cemper/MoA:
LaserGuy wrote:I still have town on cemper
This quote from D3 seems to be the first time you show a townie inclination on cemper - you were reading as scum or "meh" until then, and suddenly he's "still" town. Then later he's in two of your four "possible scum pairings", but later still in D3 he's "very likely town". Then cemper/flicky is added to the likely teams now that I'm not as likely town for you any more, but then later "I think scum is either flicky/jimbob or bessie/MoA at this point". Laser, what's your current opinion on cemper/MoA? If the answer is "scummy" or "townie", what changed your mind about the other half of your points on him?


I started reading cemper around this post. The slip about not realizing that scum would have night chat and his subsequent confusion surrounding those posts feels genuine to me. I've been consistently including him in my buddy analysis because he's not confirmed Town, and his lack of significant interactions with many of the surviving players lend themselves to fitting in well with a lot of people. I've gone back and forth a fair bit on whether to put more weight on the former versus the latter. Having just reread him in full, and that sequence of posts in particular, my inclination is that he's most likely to be Town out of the four remaining suspects.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:59 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:
Laser wrote:I'm not clearing flicky for any townslips at this point. There are a few things in his content that look like they could be, but I am far more uncertain about him than I am of cemper. See here, for example.
To rephrase, which town slips are you referring to below?


cemper likely townslipped in D2 when he didn't realize that scum having day chat implies that they would also have night chat. flicky may have slipped in D2 in forgetting that somitomi was conftown. I think I already linked you to some of the discussion of this latter point in D4.

Also, did you reread the bessie post?


Yes, I've tried to interpret this several times and cannot come up with a way that this makes sense as something obviously alignment indicative to me. And none of the interpretations that I can come up with seem to be consistent with you townreading bessie off of this based on three posts.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Hari Seldon » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:15 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Onto another point: I'm discarding bessie+cemper based on cemper's early suspicion of bessie and the general tone on how they communicated overall. Here I cannot point to any specific content, it's an overall impression. The 10% uncertainty comes entirely from this post which is a complete turn-around and theoretically could have been planned from the start.
Reading through Cemper's posts, I have the opposite impression of this. I thought it was strange that Cemper was basing his Scum Bessie read off of outdated meta and I still do. This is similar to what I mentioned to Flicky above. His read did not influence anyone else's read. Scum often use bad or weak tells to justify suspicion on their partners, as they can do so without fear of others joining the cause. I think the reasoning for his reversal was also weak.

bessie wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote: (I am not certain I understand the second half of your post. Let me know if there is something you would like addressed).
I thought that somewhere there was a discussion that Peaceful Whale was pretending not to understand your numbering, and how it relates to your theory about scum asking their partners questions on D1, but I can’t find it now, so I may be misremembering. I’m not sure what I’m remembering and misremembering any more, and with the volume it’s getting difficult to find things.
That is correct. Laser was wrong, however. PW never asked me about my scoring.


LaserGuy wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
Laser wrote:I'm not clearing flicky for any townslips at this point. There are a few things in his content that look like they could be, but I am far more uncertain about him than I am of cemper. See here, for example.
To rephrase, which town slips are you referring to below?

cemper likely townslipped in D2 when he didn't realize that scum having day chat implies that they would also have night chat. flicky may have slipped in D2 in forgetting that somitomi was conftown. I think I already linked you to some of the discussion of this latter point in D4.
My confusion is that in the link you provided, you dismantled JimBob's reasoning for thinking it was a Town slip by Flicky. So I do not understand where this is coming from:
flicky/MoA - Extremely unlikely. At least one of these players has probably townslipped. It's very unlikely that both townslips are false, IMHO. Moreover, cemper tunneled flicky for half of D1, all of D2, and most of D3 until his replacement.



LaserGuy wrote:
Also, did you reread the bessie post?


Yes, I've tried to interpret this several times and cannot come up with a way that this makes sense as something obviously alignment indicative to me. And none of the interpretations that I can come up with seem to be consistent with you townreading bessie off of this based on three posts.
Laser wrote:He then points to, in Secret Santa, where bessie ignores reading Sabrar, simply putting him as town and claiming to be "thinking about it".
This is where you misinterpreted, and I am really not sure how you could do so, because the posts I linked clearly show Bessie putting effort into describing her Town read of Sabrar. Please quote the posts in full and explain how she was not.

As for not being able to pick up on this by page 4, you are wrong. I was actively looking for signs of this, and she made a very obvious indication against it in the bottom of her post here (her response to you about Sabrar), which is what I was refering to when I made my observation here. Also, I only linked her Sabrar read in Santa as an example, as it was the most prominent, but she displayed this very early on as well in her regard toward Plytho.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:21 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:This isn't the first time this game you've deliberately misinterpreted me.

Where do you believe I deliberately misinterpreted you?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:00 am UTC

:oops: The passage of time continues to take me by surprise.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:05 pm UTC

Instead of commenting on it 3 times in the last day you could maybe finish your reads and post them. Just a suggestion.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:26 pm UTC

I know. :oops:

OK, mainly reading the first two days then, for the pairs I've not done:

MoA/Hari: cemper disliked Hari for the whole No Lynch thing early on. Hari had cemper as townie that early on. I'd like to note that on D3 cemper did say that Hari would look a lot worse "if flicky is town", while mainly trying to get me lynched - if he got me lynched then he would have needlessly given his buddy scum points if this was the team. Not sure this is a likely pairing.

MoA/bessie: bessie did a long reads post of cemper on D2 but came to no conclusion - she said "I'll see what conclusions I can draw from this in a bit" and then never came back to cemper for the rest of D2. cemper voted bessie early on for an out-of-character lack of analysis, but backed off once she provided some and later said he'd treat her as town for the rest of the game. Neither of those looks good.

LaserGuy/Hari: Hari consistently has LG as scummy early on, and wanted to vote him D1 but voted PW instead to attempt to cause a No Lynch. LaserGuy had Hari as scumlean D1. He put him in Town on his long D2 reads post but then started to read him as scum late-D2. I'm neutral on this pairing.

LaserGuy/bessie: LG and bessie arguing about bessie's interactions with PW, bessie suspecting LG/jimbob for the way they cut down their lynchable list... I can't see this being the scumteam at all.

Overall:
LIKELY TEAM
MoA/bessie
Hari/bessie
LaserGuy/Hari
MoA/Hari
LaserGuy/MoA
LaserGuy/bessie
UNLIKELY TEAM

Vote: bessie

(That was really draining... I need a rest.)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby wam » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:38 pm UTC

Current Votals:

MasterOfAll - 1 (Sabrar)
Bessie - 1 (Flicky1991)


Not voting: bessie, Hari Seldon, LaserGuy, MasterOfAll,

This. Is. Sparta MYLO.

With 6 alive hammer requires 4 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.

Deadline in 1 day and 3 hours. Monday 830 pm UTC

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:03 pm UTC

I'm going to suggest something weird assuming there will be a D6: you should not purposefully NL. If we lynch scum today then I think there will be at least 1 townie who can be definitely excluded based on their interaction with the lynched player, meaning you gain nothing by knowing the N6 kill. Meanwhile it is much easier to mislynch in a 2-1 setup than in 3-1.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Hari Seldon » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:59 pm UTC

I didn't realize the deadline was so soon. It feel like the proactivity this game was lost d4.

Bessie, may I have your thoughts on Cemper/MOA?

Sabrar wrote:Hard to describe it better but enmity between bessie and LaserGuy feels genuine (with the caveat that they are both good enough to fake it).
Could you do your best to flesh this out? It has occurred to me that Laser may not understand my Bessie reasoning, because I am wrong, and he knows I am wrong.

@all could you post the two people you would be willing to lynch? I will vote either Laser or MOA. I am currently sitting at these three possibilities:

Laser/MOA 70%
MOA/Bessie 20%
Bessie/Laser 10%

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:32 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:Could you do your best to flesh this out?
Probably won't have the time to go into details. Their tone simply resembles too much the previous games when they were at each other's throats (mainly Shakespeare and Crossover).

I'm ~95% sure that flicky is Town, I think that end of D1 means that if that's true then Hari must be Town as well (~90%).
I'm totally stumped about the rest, I could easily build a case against all of them. I think bessie+LaserGuy is the most unlikely so my vote will remain on MOA who contributed close to nothing to the game thereby conveniently fulfilling my 'lynch all lurkers' policy as well.
I think his team-mate is most likely LaserGuy but I can't exclude bessie as a possibility.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:41 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:Bessie, may I have your thoughts on Cemper/MOA?

Most recent read was on D5 here.

MasterOfAll continues to contribute little to the conversation. I gave him a D4 lurking pass because he was sick, and because I sympathize with the content overload, and because I’m sure it’s more difficult to get motivated as a replacement. But I’m suspicious about the non-posting last weekend and his jimbob vote, see here, and I’m suspicious that he never responded to that post. His contribution today has been one scum pairing analysis, and he has not responded to my question here. At this point I think he may be lurking so he doesn't leave connections to his partner.

I tried to reread cemper, and I don’t think I have anything new to add.

My response to cemper’s meta read here and here.

Full read through D2 here. Something I noted in that post:
bessie wrote:A reread of this post is interesting knowing Vicatrin’s flip:
cemper93 wrote:
vicarin wrote:If someone's meta is consistently unhelpful or random though, they're going to attract lynches no matter what side they're on simply because there's no way to tell whether something's a slip or just them being random. Which is the current problem we're having with PW. It's looking like unless a PR gets a definitive result on him, we're going to have no damn idea whether they're town or scum for the rest of the game.
Note that this is the same problem we have with bessie and BoomFrog, although in their cases bessie always reads town and BoomFrog always reads jester. I think that investigating any of these players would be wise, as you hint at.

At the time I saw this as a very weak sign that cemper may have known that Vicarin was the cop, and by extension may have night killed him. I’m terrible at finding breadcrumbs and the like, and no one else commented on this post so I brushed it off as me seeing something that wasn’t there.

There were other scum and town pings in my analysis, but nothing that I saw as particularly strong enough to divert my attention from my strong D2 scum reads (Madge and BoomFrog).

I would currently be willing to vote for MasterOfAll or LaserGuy.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby MasterOfAll » Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:58 am UTC

LaserGuy + flicky

On D1, LG has early town read on flicky. Flicky's only mention of LG is a question aimed at moody before then having LG as scummy (along with PW), and then subsequently votes for LG. LG FOS's flicky for this. They both list each other in 'lynches they wouldn't oppose'. LG votes for flicky. Flicky moves vote to PW, thinks if PW is scum then LG is town. By end of D1, LG wants either flicky lynch or no lynch.
On D2, LG thinks there is 'vanishingly small change' that flicky is scum. Flicky again asserts that PW+LG team 'impossible'. LG has flicky as 'more likely town than not'. Note that there isn't really interaction between them, just mentions of how townie they now seem to each other.
On D3, flicky has LG listed as town. LG calls flicky 'lazy town'. LG has a long post where he again concludes flicky is town. Flicky has LG listed as 2nd most townie. They have a quick interaction about bessie/jimbob being unlikely. Flicky responds to Boom that he doesn't think LG is scum. Towards end of D3, LG votes for flicky, then changes (to Boom) 4 minutes later.
On D4, LG considers 2 scum team combos that include flicky from analysis of PW posts. And promptly votes for flicky. Flicky now has LG listed as most townie. They don't interact this day, but both reiterate their stands: LG thinks flicky is scum while flicky thinks LG is town.
On D5, LG lists his possible scum teams, and the 3 that include flicky are extremely unlikely, unlikely, and possible. Flicky has not yet stated on D5 where he currently stands on LG, but has asked LG a question that LG has not yet responded to.

Conclusion: Plausible scum team. Not too hard to imagine their limited interactions and changing views of each other to be scum distancing from each other. Interesting though that LG flip-flops on flicky about as much as he did on Hari.


LaserGuy + bessie

On D1, LG begins with a 'townlean' on bessie. LG asks bessie a question on Sabrar that gets ignored. LG doesn't mention bessie the rest of D1. Bessie lists LG as 4th most scummy.
On D2, LG has bessie of 1 of 4 possible scum. And then lists her as most likely scum. LG then questions bessie on PW, and bessie responds. And they continue to interact a bit. Bessie lists LG as 3rd most scummy again. LG votes bessie. Bessie posts another of her many walls of text and votes LG. She later unvotes LG and moves him back to 3rd most scummy.
On D3, bessie begins with LG as 2nd most scummy. LG has bessie as 3rd most scummy. They interact a bit about scum pairings. LG reiterates position of bessie 3rd most scummy.
On D4, LG votes for bessie. bessie has a lot of posts throughout the day, finally gives a list towards end of day with LG 3rd most scummy.
On D5, LG includes bessie on a couple of his possible scum teams. I can't tell where bessie stands on LG today.

Conclusion: Plausible scum team. Having somewhat scummy while not scummiest reads towards each other is kind of a common scum tactic, right?


Based on how long it took to finally do these 2 looks at possible scum pairings, it is extremely unlikely that I will get to the other 3 pairings before the deadline.

There were a few questions directed at me the last couple pages . . .
Hari Seldon wrote:-MOA, which posts of Bessie's give you strong town feelings? Which of Laser's posts came off as aggressive to you? Why do you think it is important for Cemper's read to influence yours?
I'm way too lazy to go looking for particular posts to answer those first 2 questions. As for cemper's read on flicky, I figure that cemper must have picked up on something to have voted for flicky day after day. It not like I got to have a chat with cemper when I replaced him, but at least I know he was town.
bessie wrote:Pairings aside, do you have any actual scum reads?
Not actually anything strong. I was hoping that looking at pairings would give me a clearer picture. But I only got halfway through that effort, and while I do feel that 2 of the 3 I looked at are plausible, I am not at all convinced of anyone's scumminess.

And not a question, but something I feel I should respond to . . .
Sabrar wrote:. . . my vote will remain on MOA who contributed close to nothing to the game thereby conveniently fulfilling my 'lynch all lurkers' policy as well.
I regret joining this game. At least I now know that nope, playing mafia just isn't enjoyable for me any more. But I do feel that I haven't put in the minimum level of effort necessary and have thus let all of you down. I do think that MYLO is an inappropriate time to implement a 'lynch all lurkers' policy, and it feels really weird that *I'm* the lurker, otherwise I would support the policy. But reading through this thread has felt like an absolute chore and so I have just kept finding other things to do with free time.

Hopefully my lack of activity hasn't ruined the enjoyment for the rest of you.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:11 am UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:But reading through this thread has felt like an absolute chore and so I have just kept finding other things to do with free time.
I’m sorry you feel that way. This game has been unusually high content and you’re not the only one feeling overwhelmed, see flicky’s last post. Please continue to contribute whatever you can. If we manage to lynch scum today, there will be a D6, and you might be here for it. I was looking forward to seeing more content from you, because I was hoping you could offer some fresh insight, as you have not played with any of us before.

Sabrar wrote:I'm going to suggest something weird assuming there will be a D6: you should not purposefully NL.
If I am alive, there is no way this game is going to D7.


I’ll be at work at deadline, and I won’t have a lot of time in the morning. If anyone wants a detailed response to anything, please post in the next four hours.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:03 am UTC

@bessie: please give an overview on how your read on LaserGuy evolved throughout the game. Which posts of his are most relevant?

@MOA: as should be clear from context the lurker-policy is not the reason I want to lynch you, that's just a bonus.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:12 am UTC

@Hari: please vote LaserGuy.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:17 am UTC

@flicky: will you be online during deadline?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:03 am UTC

Vote: LaserGuy

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:04 am UTC

I will be here at and before the deadline.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:07 am UTC

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:This isn't the first time this game you've deliberately misinterpreted me.

Where do you believe I deliberately misinterpreted you?


bessie wrote:Shakespeare LaserGuy: Scum attacking me by trying to tie me to a newbie scum that I was trying to help out, see my post here (check spoiler).


I never commented on you helping PW out one way or the other. This entire digression was a complete fabrication by you.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:11 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@flicky: will you be online during deadline?
I expect I will be online until about half-hour before deadline.
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