Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - Endgame - Apocalypse

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:32 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
plytho wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Poor Suzaku...
What makes you say that?

He has time issues, no co-mod and at least 5 new pages to wade through and double-check votals. Why did you think I said it?


I thought you said it because I said you are me and I guessed you were agreeing I am you therefore we'd post actively and Suzu would hate it.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:45 am UTC

@George: I find it really weird that you only have 1 scum-lean in your read-post.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:53 am UTC

BTW good job at killing our Cop. I'm confirmed and will die tonight anyway. Look into plytho and George tomorrow.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:58 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:BTW good job at killing our Cop. I'm confirmed and will die tonight anyway. Look into plytho and George tomorrow.
Are you confident we mislynched?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:01 am UTC

I find it highly likely.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:02 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@George: I find it really weird that you only have 1 scum-lean in your read-post.


And? Nothing else is pinging me. I did not have time to give a complete reads list, I shared what I can for now.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:05 am UTC

@George: I find your scum-hunting content is not up to par with what you had in Crossover.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:07 am UTC

That is because there is nothing jumping out at me. This game is all strategy and fluff, that game had more interactions and wagons. The scum in this game are passive.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:16 am UTC

This is usually due to inexperienced scum or just lurking scum. This game will be won by POE. I am willing to switch to wam if we can still make that happen.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:20 am UTC

Actually, let's just do this.

Unvote
Vote: plytho


Join me, all you non-believers!

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:21 am UTC

I see. You don't listen. I am going to sleep. Night.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:06 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I find it highly likely.
What made you change your mind?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:12 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:One sentence. Scum!heury had no reason to claim.
I still think this has more weight than any other reason combined.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:17 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Sabrar wrote:One sentence. Scum!heury had no reason to claim.
I still think this has more weight than any other reason combined.
That's a good point. So you're saying Zen's pressure forced you to join a highly likely mislynch?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:21 am UTC

No, I'm saying that we need flips either way and I have been wrong in the past.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:29 am UTC

And I'm saying, without the pressure from Zen you'd have had the time to make your case and lynch someone better.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:46 am UTC

Yes, misread your original question.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:36 pm UTC

Another thing to consider that scum!heury wouldn't have known if we had an actual Cop, so he could have been easily cc-d.
This whole pressure thing favored scum a huge amount because we were scrambling (noted originally by PW). I say we wait for the mod.

Unvote

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:08 pm UTC

Zenii wrote:Executive Order: Lights Out

Suzaku wrote:...

Please post official votals.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Madge » Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:37 pm UTC

Suzaku said no comment to my question about how my vig shot would interact with a roleblocker.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Suzaku » Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:45 pm UTC

A period of heated argument ensued. First suspicion fell on Zenii, finally on heuristically_alone.
After informing him of their decision, the crew lead him to the airlock and Madge toggled the control to 'evacuate'.


heuristically_alone has been executed. His role will be revealed in the morning.

Execution votals:

Zenii - 3 (heuristically_alone, wam, freezeblade)
heuristically_alone - 7 (Zenii, bessie, LaserGuy, Sabrar, somitomi, Vicarin, Madge)
Madge - 1 (Evil George Washington)

Not voting: plytho

Current votals:

freezeblade - 3 (Zenii, Evil George Washington, LaserGuy)
wam - 1 (Vicarin)

Not voting: bessie, freezeblade, Madge, plytho, somitomi, wam, Sabrar

With eleven alive, six votes are required for execution.

Deadline has been extended 1.5 days (to 5.5).
New deadline is 11:00 on 2018/3/6 JST (=2018/3/6 02:00 UTC)

@mod Were we meant to know from flavor that Zenii did the executive order?
No comment
Last edited by Suzaku on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:53 pm UTC, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:49 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:heuristically_alone - 6 (Zenii, bessie, LaserGuy, Sabrar, somitomi, Vicarin, Madge)

You mean 7, right? (there's 7 voters but you wrote 6)
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Suzaku » Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:54 pm UTC

Sorry, apparently I can't count today. Fixed.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Vicarin » Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:54 pm UTC

Well, seeing that the day hasn't ended immediately,

Unvote

Vote: Zenii

Enough shenanigans.

(If Suzaku ends the day 10 minutes after a votal again after announcing a deadline extension I'm going to laugh so hard)

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:56 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote: Zenii

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:10 pm UTC

wam wrote:Full analysis I did on sunday saved on laptop at home. Basically I agree on Zen but I think there is a 1% chance of it not being a single use power. Do we want to do other lynches first and Zen at the end of the day.

@wam: I’d like this full analysis to be your next post.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby wam » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:16 pm UTC

Ask and you shall receive. With the obvious caveat I have not added anything from day 2 to it. I was really hoping to post this before I left for my ridiculous day yesterday but timings of day start didn't really work.

Caveat I wrote this Sunday evening so it doesn’t take anything at the start of day into account. Also I am going to be ridiculously busy tomorrow and then Thursday I am flying home so will be offline for 12 hours or so.
Summary

Town (no particular order)
PW
Vicarin
Laser
Bessie

Leaning town

heuristically_alone
Madge

Slightly Scummy (From least scummy to most scummy)
Plytho
Somitomi
Sabrar
Freezeblade

Scummy (From least scummy to most scummy)
Evil George Washington
Zenii

PW
Meta read of town, seems to be trying to devlop a weird combination of a scummy meta whilst trying to be helpful. My view is as scum again he would have just sat there using his scummy meta as an excuse.
Vicarin
I like the pushing he is doing on various statements by various players. This is an example viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124370&start=160#p4315979
Laser
This post shows good analysis and I agree with the logic if not the interpretation of it all. viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124370&start=200#p4316209
Freeze
I get the masons thing as I was in that game as well! Gargolyes is another example, still my most annoying game on this site. I blame boomfrog! There is still not many reads or analysis coming from freeze so he slips down. Whilst I get the masons thing I am wondering if it is a smoke screen he is hiding behind.
Heuristically
There is a bit of sabrar defense in this post. viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124370&start=120#p4315886 but I don’t think it shows much of a link.
Bessie
Has moved up, This post strikes me as classic Bessie and I agree with a lot of the logic viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124370&start=120#p4315897.
Plytho
Initial reads, however, still feels a bit light on reasoning. I.e this post where a town to scum list is given and very brief logic behind the scum. viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124370&start=200#p4316132 No logic behind the town reads allows him to hide his partners in the town list without backing it. Up.
Somitomi
The weird claim thing was odd, made me wonder about a miller. NOTE IF YOU ARE ONE CLAIM AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 1. The tone seems different on a meta level from SOMI’s last games so they move down.
Madge
Still seems unwilling to put down reads. The reason this is not more alignment indicative as its madge. So this is normally typical D1. The questioning of the zen wagon strikes me as towny, based as being scum she would know the alignment and less questions would come up. This post seems to be coming from town madge, viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124370&start=200#p4316441 with actual day 1 reads whilst limited.
Sabrar
I have doubts but giving sabrar the benefit of the doubt, sabrar moves up. This is based on the 2 kills being done before the role pm. Also the amount of agro aimed at zen makes them unlikely to be partners. I think there is a chance sabrar is a SK if we have one. The 2 kills comment, the unusually aggressive style.
EGW
Spoiler:
Evil George Washington wrote:Wam: explain why you don't get the Vic votes. Also, I was second on the wagon. What's wrong with being second on a wagon? What's wrong with three votes on a wagon? Those two points are null. The last sentence, I was asked about that by Somi, so that is where that came from. How does this affect your read on Somi? You didn't seem to read Somi thoroughly since you thought I was the one who brought up the multiple anti-town point.

On your question, I'll give a reads list when I'm done catching up.

First Off I am town reading Vic, and I don’t think a saw a summary of the case against him. On the bandwagon I was wrong you were the 2nd vote. It came across as scum being optimistic and jumping on what was seen as an easy target.
I am suspicious of the link to Zen.



Zen
The interesting one!
This post viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124370&start=200#p4316372 I actually quite liked. The logic behind the posts seems to be coming from a town perspective to me. So day ending powers should be claimed instantly as town. The power was used as a townie power in the first game but it was on lynch not L-3. My view is suzaku swapped it around this game.
I think we should have been more careful with it once claimed. The only reason I am not voting now is caution of it happening again. But I don’t think the mod would have put in a multi day ending power.
Based on Zen’s reads post , if zen is scum I reckon 1 of PW, Laser and EGW are the partners. I think its EGW. There is a lot of town read being based on meat. Which unless I’m mistaken none of us can verify?
@ Sabrar as above I am viewing Zen as scum now, I want to see your links to George and HA you mentioned.

Stragtegy split off
Spoiler:
Zenii wrote:
First off, the idea of lynching one person today and multi lynching on subsequent days is literally the worst strategy possible. I am highly suspicious of anyone pushing that agenda. I will refer to this strategy as the inverted-pyramid strategy. It is without a doubt the strategy I would be pushing as scum. The reason why:

1. We lack information early on and we have the means to gain it. By only lynching one person toDay, we are restricting the amount of information we can get.

2. The risks of multi-lynching becomes much greater as the game proceeds. It's best that we utilize multi-lynch early to minimize the risk of accidentally end gaming. As the game goes on, that risk becomes greater.


Zen and what all you others in the lynch masses day 1 category seem to be missing is that we agree day 1 we don’t have as much data. So what we are proposing is that the game critical decisions we need to make should be saved for when we have that information!
What I will say is having lost a day I think we need to at least double lynch. I would be happy with both EGW, Zenii as a starting point. My third choice is Freezeblade.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby wam » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:39 pm UTC

Thoughts on the chaos that happened whilst I was asleep.

Yeah so H_A misrepresented my first post to prove a zen link.

Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:Ok till the mod posts we need to hammer Zen quickly as either that's s bluff - highly scummy or real - highly scummy

Last part makes no sense. No way scum gets 2-shot day-stopping.


Those are the two options, I didn't give probabilities either way :twisted: As stated earlier I view it as 1% that zen had more than a one shot. And given Suzaku's now posted it was a bluff.

LaserGuy wrote:The claimed powers in this game make no sense to me. PW + cop + Vig + roleblocker + Governor + .... no way all of these can be Town and have multiple lynches. Unless there's five scum or something :?


Both freeze and madge claimed 1 shots. Thats why I don't believe H_a's claim. Either they had a 1 shot and wasted it on a town read or they are a full cop which seems OP.

Sabrar wrote:
Let's lynch wam.

Vote: wam


Any particular reasoning? Or is this a repeat of SS.

Also interesting both vicarin and laser piled on without as I could see any justification. Care to provide some? Madge at least admitted to just sheeping sabrar.

Given the day hasn't ended that makes it a zen bluff. Which in my mind is incredibly scummy so my vote stays.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm UTC

My reads at this point, focus is on D2 content.

Bessie: I don’t think her interactions with PW were scummy, making good observations/prods. Townie with a secret santa caveat

Evil George Washington: Took a while to join D2. Shows up with reads that are generally inconclusive with (as Sabrar pointed out) very little scum. His defense that there aren’t any wagons to analyse and scum is hiding is weak. George feels pretty scummy.

Freezeblade: His content is pretty sparse. Mostly talking about masons D1 and a few posts D2, the most notable being the claim. I agree with Sabrar that truthfully claiming the roleblock as scum makes little sense. So I’d prefer to lynch Madge before freezeblade.

LaserGuy: I’m getting a pretty strong townie feel from LaserGuy. His push on heury was natural and his behaviour around the lynch felt very townie. [one exception, after looking at the wam wagon (see below), is LaserGuy’s blind jump onto that wagon. He looks a little too eager to lynch there. Voting first and asking questions later.]

Madge: Probably scum. She’s a lot more aware of the game, didn’t breadcrumb her vig and someone once told me Madge always breadcrumbs.

Madge or freezeblade?

Scum-scum: made up story, goal?
Town-Scum: why would freezeblade claim the block? Makes no sense
Scum-town: madge is scum and used a power and noticed she was blocked (which possible powers? NK?)
Town-town: possible

I’d lynch Madge, if she’s town, so’s Freezeblade. If she’s scum he may still be her buddy, but I don’t really understand the plan. So generally I think freezeblade is likely town and madge is a good lynch.


Sabrar: Sabrar feels pretty townie. His progression on Zen is natural. I don’t see scum!Sabrar dropping the town!Zen lynch today and they don’t feel aligned at all.
Sabrar wrote: (also don't think Madge is scum but I could be totally wrong there).

This is interesting, it’s been a while since I saw Sabrar without a solid early read on Madge. (I think this says more about Madge than about Sabrar).

Somitomi: his claim feels pretty townie, although it loses some value for being after the flashing hot pink post from Vicarin earlier. It’s an easy false claim for scum to make as it’s no-risk for them. D2 has been light and confused. I’m pretty much null on Somi.


Intermezzo: Reading Vicarin I realise I’m pretty confused by the wam wagon. I haven’t read wam yet today (blame the alphabet) but I’ve noticed a wagon on him but barely a case. I don’t know why people voted him.

Heury started pushing wam based on a misinterpretation.
Zen does a reverse on wam (from scum read to town read, right?)
Sabrar disagrees with wam on the day ending powers
Wam shows up heury’s scum team and Zen’s lynch pool


Sabrar votes wam
Vicarin supports a wam lynch out of the blue.
LaserGuy votes wam out of the blue, just really eager to lynch.
Sabrar’s reason to vote wam doesn’t include wam

Vicarin votes wam after Laser and Sabrar have moved to heuristically alone. (I misremembered this I guess, I thought there were 3 votes on wam at some point) Interesting to note should heuristically alone flip scum.
Madge votes wam because she believes heury’s claim that Sabrar is town and Sabrar wanted to vote wam (earlier)

A pretty weird wagon that didn’t feel very evidence based. At least heury and Zen’s wagons had proper scum reads behind them.

Vicarin: See above analysis: his motivation and timing for jumping on the wam wagon feels very weak and more opportunistic than madge voting Zen to l-3 at the end of D1 thinking he’s been caught in a lie.

Time to find out what’s so scummy about:

Wam:
wam wrote:Full analysis I did on sunday saved on laptop at home. Basically I agree on Zen but I think there is a 1% chance of it not being a single use power. Do we want to do other lynches first and Zen at the end of the day.
I believe we still haven’t seen this full analysis. I assume wam has been home by now?
@wam:I’d like this full analysis to be your next post.

Other than that wam’s content has been light, featuring two statements that aren’t as insightful as they seem.

On the scummy side, but I’m still wary of that wagon

Zen: highly likely town, despite the fact that he faked the use of a power.
Sabrar wrote:This whole pressure thing favored scum a huge amount because we were scrambling (noted originally by PW).
Initiated by town, this pressure thing also has scum scrambling which is what I assume Zen’s goal was. Wagon analysis on wam an heury will be very interesting tomorrow.


Town
Zenii
Sabrar
freezeblade
bessie
LaserGuy
somitomi
wam
Vicarin
Madge
Evil George Washington
Scum

vote: Evil George Washington
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby wam » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:45 pm UTC

Freeze madge interaction is interesting one. Random thoughts as below

- Could SCUM Madge have tried to use a different power, been RB'd and then decided to claim vig to claim town credit
- RB is not necessarily a town role
- The way it came across I am 90% confident that madge used a power and Freeze blocked it.

I am going to opposite way to sabrar, I can see one of them being scum or both town. I don't see a both scum situation.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby wam » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:50 pm UTC

@Plytho, have posted it now.

Yes I had been home (Well my hotel) but I did just collapse into bed. Sorry I haven't been as active as normal, but from a activity stand point, the weekend being the night was really unhelpful for me as I had stupid amounts of work thursday, friday and yesterday. I am done now and should have much better content. With one caveat on Thursday I am going to be travelling for 12 hours or so.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:51 pm UTC

@wam: Link between {Zen,George}+h_a was the townread by both players in the brackets based on a single comment h_a made that was no-way alignment-indicative. Link between Zen and George was the way they avoided and refused to scum-read each other.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:56 pm UTC

Thanks wam!

I like how wam picked out the same noticeable points I did (the wam wagon and the madge-freezeblade interaction) and came to the same conclusions.

Ideally I'd like to lynch George and Madge today.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:02 pm UTC

wam wrote:Given the day hasn't ended that makes it a zen bluff. Which in my mind is incredibly scummy so my vote stays.
You're not actually voting though. Votes are reset after lynch.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby wam » Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:03 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
wam wrote:Given the day hasn't ended that makes it a zen bluff. Which in my mind is incredibly scummy so my vote stays.
You're not actually voting though. Votes are reset after lynch.


Of course they do. Now I feel stupid

vote zen
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby wam » Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:04 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Thanks wam!

I like how wam picked out the same noticeable points I did (the wam wagon and the madge-freezeblade interaction) and came to the same conclusions.

Ideally I'd like to lynch George and Madge today.


Not zen?
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plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 169
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:07 pm UTC

No, he's highly likely town. The bluff fits his playstyle.
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Sabrar
Posts: 42
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:25 pm UTC

@plytho: you call Zen 'highly likely town' but you don't give any reasons for it. You even question his bluff here. What gives?

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Sabrar
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:28 pm UTC

You can't be Masons, nor do you have a Cop-result on him. What changed from the beginning of the day?

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Sabrar
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D2 - Awakening

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:31 pm UTC

wam wrote:I am going to opposite way to sabrar, I can see one of them being scum or both town. I don't see a both scum situation.
That was George who suggested both scum, I'm leaning towards both Town.


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