Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - Endgame - Apocalypse

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Suzaku » Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:26 pm UTC

What was EGW's win condition?

He won if all other players were dead.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:12 pm UTC

So, looks like Zenii's guess about the scum having a Janitor/Janitorish role is correct? Incredibly annoying. Have to make up for the fat lot of not much info today.

First thing's first: Madge has claimed.

@Madge: Why'd you target Sabrar? He specifically said for me to not target him, so why did you? I was under the impression that he either didn't want to survive very badly, or that he had some other way of being protected.

@Sabrar: Why'd you tell me to not protect you?

Second: @Plytho, is your information any use now that we know Zenii IS town? Kind of interesting that scum seemed to think that he would be confirmed enough today to be worth killing. Do you have any further results?

Third: Looks like EGW probably wasn't lying about not having a false claim (man, that role looks hard to win with in this setup). This is interesting. Mass claim worth doing today?

Fourth: For the lynches today, the number we should do seems to depend highly on the number of scum remaining and whether a cult is likely (though there's been no evidence of existence so far, so who knows). If there's 3 scum remaining, we should either do 1 or a BUNCH of lynches. If there's 2, then we've got a fair few more options. And if there's a cult, we should lean towards a bunch of lynches.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:19 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:So, looks like Zenii's guess about the scum having a Janitor/Janitorish role is correct? Incredibly annoying. .


Where was this?

2 notes. 1 suzaku seems to manage starting days just after I leave Home!

2. Zen stop changing avatars it's annoying.

Madges claim makes sense to me.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:55 pm UTC

Haha, this is terrible. Well played, scum. Now I trust no one.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:56 pm UTC

I watched Zen and saw heuristically_alone visit.

I thought Sabrar crumbed commuter (see the first post on page 5). So he knew heury couldn’t have visited him. That’s how I interpreted the “LOL!” response to heury’s claim

I thought either town!heury was redirected to Zen or scum!heury targeted Zen, so there was a good chance Zen was town.

When I asked Sabrar how certain he was that heuristically_alone was town he said it was “highly likely”. I used those same words when I talked about Zen. Hoping Sabrar would pick up on the language.

Around the time I was talking about Sabrar’s breadcrumb I realized I may have been the one that was redirected. That’s why I kind of relied on Sabrar actually being a commuter. If he was I couldn’t have visited him so I’d have confirmation I actually visited Zen.

At that point I tried to claim something true without giving away my power. I heury was town either of us could have been redirected so I didn’t know whether town!heury had a result on Zen or not. I did know that if heury was scum targeting someone It would be very unlikely for me to be redirected to the same person scum!heury was targeting. So in a scum!heury scenario it was very likely that I actually visited Zen and so did scum!heury. This very strongly implies town!Zen so that’s what I claimed.

Next is wam’s claim: Wam claimed he visited Sabrar. If that’s true I now have confirmation that I wasn’t redirected to Sabrar. So I did visit Zen and see heury. This means town!heury implies town!Zen and scum!heury implies town!Zen. That’s why I was definitely opposed to a Zen lynch after wam’s claim.

The only way Zen isn’t cleared here is if heury is independent. That’s part of why that option was on my mind.

There’s also the possibility of scum!wam but I think that’s quite unlikely. It’s maaybe possible on a wam-heury team where heury was hoping to draw counterclaims and when none showed up wam decided to cop claim himself.

Another remote possibility, depending on heury’s actual power, is a heury-Zen team deciding to self target N1 but that also feels unlikely.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:57 pm UTC

That was pre written. I don't have a lot of time tonight/this weekend.

I also used a little white lie near the end of D2. More on that later.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:11 pm UTC

I'd like a full claim from Maven.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:21 pm UTC

Vote: Vicarin

Might as well start here. More later.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby somitomi » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:28 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Haha, this is terrible. Well played, scum. Now I trust no one.

There seems to be a whole lot of powers flying around here.
wam wrote:
Vicarin wrote:So, looks like Zenii's guess about the scum having a Janitor/Janitorish role is correct? Incredibly annoying. .


Where was this?

I definitely remember it...
....yup, here it is

Vicarin wrote:@Madge: Why'd you target Sabrar? He specifically said for me to not target him, so why did you? I was under the impression that he either didn't want to survive very badly, or that he had some other way of being protected.

It's possible Sabrar wanted to make it ambiguous whether you'd protect him or someone else.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:43 pm UTC

Vote: Vicarin

Image

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:45 pm UTC

@plytho, why did you visit Zen?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:51 pm UTC

I thought he had a good chance of getting visitors. When I targeted him I thought he was town. I changed my point of view on that by day start but didn't change my action because I expected Zen would give the best odds of catching visitors.

Oh and I didn't see Madge there. Nor anyone else.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:06 pm UTC

@Vic: Who did you target last night?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:39 pm UTC

Right, so, wam vs heury.

Two cops doesn't make sense. So not town-town.

Town-scum: could be. Wam waited for the counter claim until pressured by Sabrar. Scum hid heury's flip so we wouldn't know he's scum and we can't find connections.

Scum-town: could be. Wam knew he could safely claim cop because they'd hide heury's flip.

Scum-scum: this would be pretty weird and mean there are no cops in this game.

Any thoughts on this? Do any of these scenarios not make sense for some reason? (I'll try to look into it myself when I have the time).
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:45 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Third: Looks like EGW probably wasn't lying about not having a false claim (man, that role looks hard to win with in this setup). This is interesting. Mass claim worth doing today?
It is clear (especially after Madge's question) that not all aspects of the role were revealed. But you jump to a conclusion that it must mean no false-claims and want to justify a mass-claim based on that. Scummy.

Vicarin wrote:Fourth: For the lynches today, the number we should do seems to depend highly on the number of scum remaining and whether a cult is likely (though there's been no evidence of existence so far, so who knows).
You have evidence of an SK, you have evidence of an NK not claimed by Town and you want to talk about whether cult is possible. That's misdirection in the extreme.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:02 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Right, so, wam vs heury.

Two cops doesn't make sense. So not town-town.

Town-scum: could be. Wam waited for the counter claim until pressured by Sabrar. Scum hid heury's flip so we wouldn't know he's scum and we can't find connections.

Scum-town: could be. Wam knew he could safely claim cop because they'd hide heury's flip.

Scum-scum: this would be pretty weird and mean there are no cops in this game.

Any thoughts on this? Do any of these scenarios not make sense for some reason? (I'll try to look into it myself when I have the time).


I think you can probably safely discard scenarios involving Town!heury. I suppose there's an edge case where heury was redirected, but that would be a very unlikely and unlucky series of events.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:57 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:@Sabrar: Why'd you tell me to not protect you?
Also, role-fishing.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:22 pm UTC

I think sabrar s case is reasonable. I am definitely leaning to an Indy probably lyncher. But given the setup clearing out indys is useful so

vote vicarin

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:37 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@Vic: Who did you target last night?


I targeted wam, as I thought that him flipping would have been mostly useless with h_a's flip (yayyyyyyy) and he was willing to make a claim about his rolename. Wasn't going to target Sabrar after being explicitly told not to.

Kinda regretting my choice now we don't know the flip, but I really, really wasn't expecting Zenii to be targeted. My 2nd choice would have probably been Plytho.

@Sabrar: do you think EGW would completely ignore a safe claim if given one? Would this count as playing against his win condition, especially in this setup where there a 0% chance of survival after claiming SK?

Also, what do you think I'm misdirecting for? I'm saying that IF there is a cult then we're possibly at LYLO. I think that's very unlikely, but it should at least be considered before rushing ahead.

@Plytho: do you have a useful N2 result or would you prefer to wait in case of claims?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:02 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I'd like a full claim from Maven.


I'm not against this, but why Maven in particular?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Zenii » Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:18 am UTC

Current votals:

Vicarin - 3 (Sabrar, LaserGuy, wam)

Not Voting: freezeblade, Madge, Maven89, plytho, somitomi, Vicarin

With nine alive, 5 votes are required for execution.

Deadline is 2018/3/14 23:00 JST (=2018/3/14 14:00 UTC)

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Madge » Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:53 am UTC

Targeted sabrar because I thought he either figured out I was a doctor who would protect him, or his request was beer (wine that helps town). Like our bodyguard says, I wouldn't have protected zenii in a million years so it's moot.

Makes sense I wouldn't visit zenii n1 if I was roleblockdd. Execute me today, idgaf, I'm not getting any good reads this game an scum will never kill me now I'm vt
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:42 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I think you can probably safely discard scenarios involving Town!heury. I suppose there's an edge case where heury was redirected, but that would be a very unlikely and unlucky series of events.
what do you mean by that series of events?

Also please answer my question from D2.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:48 am UTC

Vote: wam

By flipping wam we are certain we have at least one scum and can do a buddy analysis.

I'll retract my vote if someone can prove heury was scum.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:24 am UTC

plytho wrote:I'll retract my vote if someone can prove heury was scum.
In light of the claims (not all of which can be from scum) and the similarities to previous Lights Out game full Cop is extremely unlikely in the setup. 1-shot Cop fits the bill.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:30 am UTC

Heury never claimed full cop though.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:32 am UTC

Just like I didn't claim full watcher.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:45 am UTC

At this point, out of the claims we do have, I'm inclined to think that freezeblade is a scum roleblocker instead of a 1 shot town roleblock, mainly due to it being a decent cover story for later days. Madge getting two oneshots, one of which is sufficient for a normal power role is also kind of weird.

@Sabrar: what was the setup of the lights out game you're comparing this game to?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:51 am UTC

plytho wrote:Heury never claimed full cop though.
True, but I would assume a 1-shot Cop would reveal that fact in his claim (like wam did).

Vicarin wrote:@Sabrar: what was the setup of the lights out game you're comparing this game to?
This one.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:53 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
plytho wrote:Heury never claimed full cop though.
True, but I would assume a 1-shot Cop would reveal that fact in his claim (like wam did).
Why?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:09 am UTC

@Sabrar: oh jeez, that is incredibly similar... And it was Suzaku's first game too?

Biggest guaranteed differences - other game had no SK, and players in the other game were told there was no cult.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:32 am UTC

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I think you can probably safely discard scenarios involving Town!heury. I suppose there's an edge case where heury was redirected, but that would be a very unlikely and unlucky series of events.


what do you mean by that series of events?


The odds of heury targeting Sabrar (Town cop would not lie about a result, so if heury is Town I think we have to assume he targeted Sabrar) and being redirected to the same person that you happened to observe. It's not impossible, but the odds are in the 1/100 range by chance (heury has a ~3/4 chance of getting a Town result by chance; redirector has a ~1/8 chance of picking heury; redirect has a ~1/8 chance of changing the target to the same person as you).

Also please answer my question from D2.


Town!heury and Town!wam are mutually exclusive, but indy!heury gives us no info about wam.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:08 am UTC

plytho wrote:Why?
I feel it's the right thing to do but that's just an opinion. However you have h_a claiming Cop on me (100% town read as pointed out before) and you saw him visit Zen. Surely redirector is an unlikely answer.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:06 am UTC

The other logic behind making it clear it is a one shot is it means you don't instantly become the nk target.

@laser there is a 5% edge case I can see of town huery town wam, which is where only 1 of us is sane. But given plythos claimed results I dont thin huery wasn't telling the truth and is scum or Indy.

So looking at the setup spec we had D1. The view was either 9-1-3 or 8-1-1-3.

So putting in the results we know that leaves us with.

8-3 or 7-1-3

So if huery was scum

8-2 or 7-1-2

If huery was indy

Doesn't make sense at 8-3 So would have to be 7-3

If huery was town (I view it as unlikely)

7-3 or 6-1-3

So that backs up vics point that with a town huery we.only could only have 1 lynch before mylo. I think town huery as very unlikely so worst case hes indy and we are at 7-3. That gives us two lynches today taking us to 5-3 worst case and giving us a day 4 at lylo.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:28 am UTC

There's only 9 people alive, so the worst case scenarios are 3-3-3 with cult (in which case we're pretty screwed anyway) and 6-3 or 5-3-1 without.

If you're going to plan out the number of lynches we can do safely, make sure you have the correct number of people alive at least...

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:29 am UTC

LYLO cannot be applied the same as in other setups. My plan is to lynch 4-5 people today.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:32 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:There's only 9 people alive, so the worst case scenarios are 3-3-3 with cult (in which case we're pretty screwed anyway) and 6-3 or 5-3-1 without.

If you're going to plan out the number of lynches we can do safely, make sure you have the correct number of people alive at least...


I forgot to take Zen off now I feel like a proper idiot.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:50 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:LYLO cannot be applied the same as in other setups. My plan is to lynch 4-5 people today.


Yeah, it might be easiest to approach today from the reverse direction. A town block that is size 1 larger than the number of scum and which is believed to be town by a majority of people can just methodically lynch everyone else for a win.

Main issues are if scum also have Zenii's ability (pretty unlikely hopefully, but it would really screw this up) or something like somitomi's ability. However, seeing how no-one else has claimed something along those lines by now, anyone who triggers such an effect (other than somitomi) is almost certainly scum anyway and so it won't force a win for scum without an extra kill up scum's sleeve or something.

Also for this to work, everyone would have to be really, really sure about how large the scum block is, or else the plan can fall apart really quickly with a poor choice of lynch order. I think if 2 scum no cult is the consensus then there's some good groups that could work.

Really, really need Maven89 to actually say something already though. Along with freezeblade. And somitomi saying some more stuff would be good too.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:38 pm UTC

Unvote

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:02 pm UTC

Ok attempt 2.

So looking at the setup spec we had D1. The view was either 9-1-3 or 8-1-1-3.

So putting in the results we know that leaves us with.

7-3 or 6-1-3

So if huery was scum

7-2 or 6-1-2

If huery was indy

Doesn't make sense at 7-3 So would have to be 6-3

If huery was town (I view it as unlikely)

6-3 or 5-1-3

So then worst case if we did 1 lynch today and hit town. We could start tomorrow at 3-1-3. Now this is highly unlikely. So my view is that the approach outlined by sabrar and Vic is right for the last day. The only question in my mind is do we need another flip first?

If we go with sabrar 4/5 and vics suggestion. My view is simple we get a roughly agreed town scum list and lynch along it. Thoughts?
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