Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - Endgame - Apocalypse

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LaserGuy
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:16 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
So, LaserGuy, when you voted wam D2, what were the odds from your point of view of heury flipping town/scum/indie and what would each of these flips tell us (or not tell us) about wam's counterclaim? (this is what I meant when I asked for the possibilities).


I already answered this.
Where? Because this doesn't count:


I posted the odds in my D2 read, which I've already quoted to you. I've already explained what I think those flips would imply. I've already explained why I think scum!wam would counterclaim in this situation. If you have some new and interesting questions that you would like to ask, please do.

Maybe you should read the scramble again. The wam wagon never threatened the heury wagon. There was no reason for eg bessie or somitomi to counterclaim heury's cop.


I think if bessie hadn't voted for heury when she did, wam would probably have been lynched. Look at the voting progression + timestamps on the posts + who was actually trying to push for lynches.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:03 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I posted the odds in my D2 read, which I've already quoted to you. I've already explained what I think those flips would imply. I've already explained why I think scum!wam would counterclaim in this situation. If you have some new and interesting questions that you would like to ask, please do.


Right, so: from that post I get
5% town (very surprised)
25% indie (literally)
70% scum

You’ve explained that town heury is mutually exclusive with town wam.
I don’t think you’ve said anything about that 70% of scum heury. (which I assume implies town wam to you)
You think that scum wam would counterclaim indie town (in the specific case where wam is buddies with Sabrar)

The main problem I have with your push is that you focus on that 25% and ignore the 75% chance that you get solid info on wam from heury’s lynch. Even if I agreed with you on everything else, this would be a problem.

LaserGuy wrote:
Maybe you should read the scramble again. The wam wagon never threatened the heury wagon. There was no reason for eg bessie or somitomi to counterclaim heury's cop.


I think if bessie hadn't voted for heury when she did, wam would probably have been lynched. Look at the voting progression + timestamps on the posts + who was actually trying to push for lynches.
You're right. The point I'm trying to make is that hypothetical cop!bessie didn't need to couterclaim/out herself at that point. Nor did somitomi later on. This means that, even if scum knows heury is indie, they still don't know they can safely counterclaim.


Sabrar wrote:@plytho: can you have a look at a possible LaserGuy+wam and LaserGuy+Madge scum-team? Is there something that specific that would rule those out?
I’m not finding anything to rule them out. Any reason for these particular pairings?
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Sabrar
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:48 pm UTC

Yes. I'm thinking about claiming and those pairings would be a problem with the avenue I have in mind.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:01 pm UTC

plytho wrote:I don’t think you’ve said anything about that 70% of scum heury. (which I assume implies town wam to you)


This is correct. I don't think the redirect scenario is likely here, and I'm assuming Town!heury would otherwise not lie about a cop result.

You think that scum wam would counterclaim indie town (in the specific case where wam is buddies with Sabrar)


Yes. Theoretically, scum!wam could still counterclaim against Town!Sabrar here, but I think he would only do that with a very, um, aggressive partner, like BoomFrog or Zen, which isn't applicable with the current players.

The main problem I have with your push is that you focus on that 25% and ignore the 75% chance that you get solid info on wam from heury’s lynch. Even if I agreed with you on everything else, this would be a problem.


As I said:
-I had a scumread that I felt needed to be verified. I was uncertain that heury's flip would give the right information, and did not want to end up in a scenario where we have to rely on wam's claim alone as the basis for townreading both players (as I said, I am less certain about GA!heury and scum!Sabrar for a variety of reasons, but that was my rationale at the time).
-I was frustrated by the lack of actual scumhunting or gamesolving that was going on in the latter half of D2 (and, unsurprisingly, has persisted pretty much all of D3) and felt that the players that were encouraging this behaviour were/are being extremely anti-Town.

You're right. The point I'm trying to make is that hypothetical cop!bessie didn't need to couterclaim/out herself at that point. Nor did somitomi later on. This means that, even if scum knows heury is indie, they still don't know they can safely counterclaim.


You may be right. It would probably depend on the exact composition of the scum team, what sort of chat they have, etc. I'm not saying I'm necessarily right about this (and the point may be moot if heury is scum); I'm showing the reasons for saying what I've said. Do you believe I was being insincere in my concerns when I raised this point? Do you believe that my actions have been scum-motivated?

If heury is scum, why would bessie swing the lynch to him?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:02 pm UTC

Scum!bessie, that is.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:34 pm UTC

@laser you say people not scum hunting and encouraging that disscussion is frustrating and anti town. But you don't seem to have called anyone out for it.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:43 pm UTC

@plytho: I was holding off on the list because I really wanted to see if Maven89 or freezeblade had anything interesting to say first before doing so.

@Sabrar: I'd also appreciate that claim as although it's very likely you're town, there are some slightly worrying possibilities involving h_a that I'd like to be cleared. Also you possibly being a godfather and all that.

@Maven89: is there any particular reason you're not claiming? If you don't, you're almost certainly going to get lynched immediately anyway so I'm not sure why you wouldn't.

@wam: he was calling out Sabrar near the end of D2 I believe.

Thanks for the answers to my question Plytho+wam

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:48 pm UTC

wam wrote:@laser you say people not scum hunting and encouraging that disscussion is frustrating and anti town. But you don't seem to have called anyone out for it.


Pretty sure I remember saying this to Sabrar:
LaserGuy wrote:Your complacency in particular, post EGW flip, I find very troubling. I can't decide if you are just completely oblivious or if you are scum.

If you think I'm scum, fine. Make a case. Vote for me. Do something productive. What you have been doing is not helping Town. You were talking earlier about being certain you were going to be NKed. Why aren't you posting any reads in the event of your death? What's the point of saying this or asking about this if you don't think you are going to survive until tomorrow to follow up? Why haven't you told us what this fantastic PoE plan that you've been working on is so that the remainder of Town can work through it without you? I am completely baffled by your play these past few days.

LaserGuy wrote:It's not even that you're just sitting there doing nothing. You are actively discouraging people from scumhunting.


At this exact moment in time, the only person who I feel is even trying to solve this game is plytho (who is, unfortunately, barking up the wrong tree, but I give him major credit for trying).

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:49 pm UTC

Also:
Vote: Vicarin

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Sabrar
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:55 pm UTC

I have a basic plan to win this today if people can agree on 2 townies besides myself. I'm guessing plytho + (Madge or wam).

@LaserGuy: you should know by now that I much prefer plans to reads. They have a higher chance of success.

Chopping order would be the following:
1. Vicarin
2. freezeblade
3. Maven
4. Madge or wam
5. LaserGuy
6. somitomi

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:58 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I have a basic plan to win this today if people can agree on 2 townies besides myself. I'm guessing plytho + (Madge or wam).

@LaserGuy: you should know by now that I much prefer plans to reads. They have a higher chance of success.


I am aware of this. That's pretty much the reason I'm townreading you right now. Doesn't mean I have to like it :evil:

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:04 pm UTC

Is putting me first because you're still afraid I'm a lyncher or because you seriously think I'm mafia?

I can agree with Plytho being on the team, but I'd still prefer full claims (I can't believe how stingy people are with rolenames at the moment) from everyone going on it, seeing how likely it is that the game will end today.

We need every bit of info we can get.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:21 pm UTC

*shrug*

Okay, I'm Commander of the Air Group of the Ajax. Does that tell you anything helpful?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:33 pm UTC

I'm trying to decide whether Suzaku would really give someone a "Commander of the Air Group" role on a spaceship.

Also, it's more helpful if there's more claims. Do you have any abilities that you're going to claim too? If we want to solve this game we need all the pieces on the table first.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:40 pm UTC

I expect I will claim at some point today, yes, but not right now unless Sabrar or plytho really wants me to.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:43 pm UTC

Will you claim before I die? Kinda resigned to dying first but if it gets people to shut up about lynches then I'll deal with it.

I'd definitely prefer maven and freezeblade to claim before you too but it's not looking likely, ugh.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:47 pm UTC

Cag is an acronym I have seen in a lot of sci fi so perfectly believable to me. With the caveat that I would expect some form of safe claim.

I have 1 one shot left (chose not to use it n2) but I will not state what it is as that will just help scum.

For completeness I am the marine lieutenant. So Vic I'm your boss!
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:50 pm UTC

@ sabrar. We are struggling to get 1 lynch going what makes you think we can get 6 especially with the lynch in the last 12 hours ending the day? If madge/wam us in your last 3 why are we before laser?

Also would 5 not make more sense than 6. 5 gives us a chance if one of the chosen 3 are scum. We also need to not hit 4 as if we have 2 scum in the 5 remaining we have had it. So I am in favour of 3(as plytho ststed) or 5.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:53 pm UTC

@wam: can you give an indication of the flavour of your 1 shot cop? I can almost certainly guess it from other stuff, but just to be sure...

Also, when you decided to not use the 2nd one shot, how many more days were you expecting this game to go?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:03 am UTC

What do you.meaan the flavour of It?

And I gambled that keeping it would be more useful. Didn't really plot out the nights left as that was dependant on the flips.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:11 am UTC

Well, ok, I was assuming that you copped people by going into their room and rummaging around in their stuff going by how we got the flips today and why we didn't get h_a's.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:14 am UTC

Oh I thought you meant the flip itself. My flavour was vaguer than that. Talked about trainjng in collecting battlefield intelligence.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Madge » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:23 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I have a basic plan to win this today if people can agree on 2 townies besides myself. I'm guessing plytho + (Madge or wam).


What makes plytho such a town read? Is the watcher/tracker claim that strong? (seeing where I ended up on peoples' "save" lists, apparently my vig/doc claim counted for something, so I am guessing that's what it is)

I am highly suspicious of bessie and want a claim from her (okay, she's Maven now, but same diff). I also want a claim from Sabrar because there's a lot of speculation about his role and we've followed scum off a cliff before, and we have no guarantee that either cop result was correct. At least a claim gives us more data.

I will not vote (except in self defense, duh) until we have full claims. (Including LaserGuy but he says he'll claim later today - hopefully before we start voting in earnest)

Claim table:
Laserguy - Commander of the Air Group of the Ajax
Freezeblade - roleblocker (1-shot; madge, N1)
sabrar
plytho - 1 shot watcher (used N1 on Zenii; saw h_a and didn't see Madge) and 1 shot tracker (unknown)
Vicarin - bodyguard (Bessie N1; wam N2)
Somitomi - day ends when he is executed
Bessie/Maven
wam - cop (1-shot; sabrar, town, N1); has one-shot of something else, unused; Marine lieutenant
Madge - one shot vig (Zenii, N1) + one shot doc (Sabrar, N2)
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:28 am UTC

If you're putting roleclaims on there, I'm the Marine Sergeant and you've already claimed yours.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Madge » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:05 am UTC

Claim table:
Laserguy - Commander of the Air Group of the Ajax
Freezeblade - roleblocker (1-shot; madge, N1)
sabrar
plytho - 1 shot watcher (used N1 on Zenii; saw h_a and didn't see Madge) and 1 shot tracker (unknown)
Vicarin - bodyguard (Bessie N1; wam N2); Marine sergeant
Somitomi - day ends when he is executed
Bessie/Maven
wam - cop (1-shot; sabrar, town, N1); has one-shot of something else, unused; Marine lieutenant
Madge - one shot vig (Zenii, N1) + one shot doc (Sabrar, N2); Ajax medical officer
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Zenii » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:39 am UTC

Current votals:

Vicarin - 3 (Sabrar, wam, LaserGuy)
freezeblade - 1 (Vicarin)
LaserGuy - 1 (plytho)

Not Voting: freezeblade, Madge, Maven89, somitomi

With nine alive, 5 votes are required for execution.

Deadline is 2018/3/14 23:00 JST (=2018/3/14 14:00 UTC)



Assuming they're both in the game, would cop results happen before or after alignment changes in general?

No Comment.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:48 am UTC

Yeah, I wasn't expecting much out of that question, oh well.

Sabrar, a full claim would really make me feel better about watching you lead town like this, there's still some weird stuff about all the claimed N1 results.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:20 am UTC

wam wrote:@ sabrar. We are struggling to get 1 lynch going what makes you think we can get 6 especially with the lynch in the last 12 hours ending the day? If madge/wam us in your last 3 why are we before laser?

Also would 5 not make more sense than 6. 5 gives us a chance if one of the chosen 3 are scum. We also need to not hit 4 as if we have 2 scum in the 5 remaining we have had it. So I am in favour of 3(as plytho ststed) or 5.

All valid questions. You can be the second conf townie.

I'm the Navigator, Lovers with LaserGuy. Can confirm he's CAG, don't know if he's UNE though. We have night-chat.
It's important to plan around this and that's the reason behind the order given before.

@all: WE NEED TO START VOTING AS ONE.
@Madge: you're actually hurting us if you're insisting to wait for the lurkers to claim.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:27 am UTC

somitomi wrote:...
plytho wrote:...
Madge wrote:...
We need 2 of you to vote Vicarin so we can proceed.
@plytho: you should really claim your Tracker-result.

Has freezeblade been prodded?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:32 am UTC

Ah, ok, well, if Laserguy can confirm that then that makes me much less worried about you being cult, lead away. I was also worrying about how incredibly overpowered town was looking.

Can you confirm exactly how the lovers work in this game though please?

Unvote
Vote: Maven89

I'm still happy to start the lynches with Maven and freezeblade seeing as they're why we've got this time pressure, and Maven wasn't doing much in their only post, so I'll start with them.

Second the requested modprod for freezeblade if it hasn't been done already

Ninja'd: or you can just use my vote and start with the damn lurkers.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:34 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:@ sabrar. We are struggling to get 1 lynch going what makes you think we can get 6 especially with the lynch in the last 12 hours ending the day? If madge/wam us in your last 3 why are we before laser?

Also would 5 not make more sense than 6. 5 gives us a chance if one of the chosen 3 are scum. We also need to not hit 4 as if we have 2 scum in the 5 remaining we have had it. So I am in favour of 3(as plytho ststed) or 5.

All valid questions. You can be the second conf townie.

I'm the Navigator, Lovers with LaserGuy. Can confirm he's CAG, don't know if he's UNE though. We have night-chat.
It's important to plan around this and that's the reason behind the order given before.

@all: WE NEED TO START VOTING AS ONE.
@Madge: you're actually hurting us if you're insisting to wait for the lurkers to claim.


I confirm Lovers with Sabrar, night chat and all the rest. I have no other abilities.

Softclaimed this here, when I was speculating Madge might have chat, since my PM says my chat is encrypted, which was why I was wondering if Madge was asking about listening roles, since I figured if she had chat her role PM would probably use the same term. Also was considering the possibility of multiple lover pairs, hence my comment that the lynch could be a disaster if everyone had the same role as me.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:35 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Can you confirm exactly how the lovers work in this game though please?


If Sabrar is killed in any way, then I die of grief. I assume it is the same for him.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Madge » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:37 am UTC

So.... Sabrar, do you have any abilities?

And you guys are not confirmed town to each other?

Claim table:
Laserguy - Commander of the Air Group of the Ajax (no power other than nightchat; confirms Sabrar's lovers claim, below)
Freezeblade - roleblocker (1-shot; madge, N1)
sabrar - Navigator, Lovers with LaserGuy (night-chat; confirms LG's role not alignment)
plytho - 1 shot watcher (used N1 on Zenii; saw h_a and didn't see Madge) and 1 shot tracker (unknown)
Vicarin - bodyguard (Bessie N1; wam N2); Marine sergeant
Somitomi - day ends when he is executed
Bessie/Maven - ???
wam - cop (1-shot; sabrar, town, N1); has one-shot of something else, unused; Marine lieutenant
Madge - one shot vig (Zenii, N1) + one shot doc (Sabrar, N2); Ajax medical officer

Vote: Maven

Sure, I'll vote for the unclaimed. No claim is the worst claim after all!
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:39 am UTC

No, we are explicitly not confirmed Town to each other.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Madge » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:41 am UTC

okay so to make Freezeblade happy when he eventually decides to show up, Sabrar and LaserGuy are lovers with neighbour chat (as opposed to mason chat), and I acknowledge that their alignments are not necessarily the same :lol:
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Madge » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:42 am UTC

I am happy to execute Maven/Vicarin/Somitomi today, ideally in that order.

This desire will evaporate if Maven has a good claim.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:43 am UTC

@Madge: we'll vote Maven off the island a little bit later. For now please vote Vicarin. We have to coordinate, with the lurkers around we need to be united in our choices. Please don't be selfish.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:44 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:No, we are explicitly not confirmed Town to each other.


This has been very annoying for both of us, I think :)

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:45 am UTC

For sure...

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:48 am UTC

Ugh, this question is annoyingly metagamey but I've gotta ask:

Would the presence of lovers in this game contradict the first rule in the FAQ due to more people dying to a lynch than expected, possibly messing up the number required for the next lynch, or would the 2nd of the theoretical lovers not die until publically announced by the mod?

If it's the former, obviously they die immediately.

I really hope I don't get smote for asking this but this is a role I would have ruled out based on the FAQ. Though it's somewhat believable from the game Sabrar linked.


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