Alien Warfare Mafia (GAME OVER)

[LaserGuy]

I think it's plytho writing that from his own POV

[plytho]

There he is!

Mpolo's response to SDK's post shows he's still only aware of two aliens at that point.

[Sabrar]

I totally agree with the assessment here, I don't see how in a supposedly symmetrical situation we could make any headway to win when we don't have an NK to get rid of Illaman. Possibly the idea was that we don't claim and hope lynch/NK gets them? At least game became more interesting.

On other news wam's claimed win-condition seems impossible to achieve, he would need first to get rid of all Survivors, deliberately keeping Garatron alive.

[Vicarin]

It really just seems like wam is flailing Garatron, have to see what happens on his flip. I don't think there's any way he's getting out of being lynched today.

And right, I see. Hadn't looked at mpolo's one post in more detail, that's definitely a good candidate for a 3rd Mercora I guess. And that post just now by him seems to have missed a few steps of the discussion. Blatantly doesn't have the town wincon at least.

[Maven89]

I don't want SDk and Sabrar to cop each other.

I believe SDK. There's a chance he was pulling a gambit, but that chance is lowered by Sabrar also claiming. I want him to cop Sabrar

Sabrar, however, has a higher chance of being a fraud. It's possible that he saw SDK's claim, saw that SDK didn't know who the other Mercoras were or the town win condition (the main reason Sabrar was under suspicion) and claimed to save himself. There's also the chance that they're both scum, and came up with this to save themselves. I find the former rather unlikely, as Sabrar would probably expect himself to be coped by SDK or another (real) mercora, and the later extremely unlikely because a real Mercora would counter claim. Either way, if Sabrar is real or not, he's going to say that he got a positive result on SDK, so having him cop SDK is a waste (if he's scum, he can just kill SDK and hope he can beat any mercora who cops him in the day fight to survive longer than he can now). So, I'd really prefer it is Sabrar cops me tonight. he doesn't know who I am, there's some suspicion that I might be a Mercora, so Sabrar would have to gamble. We'll probably have SDK's results, unless he dies, either to frame Sabrar or save him.

But, due to the reasons I stated on why Sabrar would claim a positive on SDK regardless, I see no downside to having Sabrar cop me instead.

[Sabrar]

I can check mpolo tonight if you want, as explained before SDK can't be Garatron as he knows about our Cop-ability and can't be Illaman either as he knew the Mercora name. So from my pov it would be a waste to check him, he can check me if he wants to.

[Sabrar]

Ninja'd by Maven.

I think it is clear that Maven is in possession of the town role-pm so he can't be Mercora. It would be a waste to cop him.

[Sabrar]

Yes, I still think Maven is scum (Garatron to be precise). He focuses on the wrong things and his logic is bad.

[bessie]

Ok I just got home a few minutes ago. I had planned to be home tonight, but someone asked my husband to play at the last minute, and he never turns down a chance to be center stage, he’s as bad as Madge. Anything interesting happen while I was out drowning my misery in alcohol?

Um well, all right. Let’s see, where was I, somewhere on page 8.

Also various people asked about my meta read on Bessie. I noticed when playing as her teammate in stellaris that she was less aggressive than normal. Having glanced back through other town Bessie games this seems to be a tell.

Hmm, interesting. I’ll have to think about this, as to whether it is true or if my aggression is more determined by outside factors.

Thoughts on the setup: I have assumed from the beginning that the two alien factions are going to be "different" (I suggested a cult as a possibility, but there may be some other thing going on here.

Thank you mpolo for your analysis. I now know where to place you on my town-scum list.

Oh, it wasn't LaserGuy, it was you (jumping off LaserGuy's first catch). Here's your post where you grill me for the "proper mafia" thing. After you and Laser jumped on me, it was very clear that I'd screwed up the town wincon. Reread my slip there and tell me it doesn't sound natural. I DO NOT KNOW THE TOWN WINCON, so how could my steel trap mind have prevented this?

It does sound natural, so if that’s what you were trying for, success. It’s because it sounded natural that it pinged me. I don’t think your steel trap mind would have made that error if you were genuinely trying to sort people [hmm, it just occurred to me that I was typical bessie-vague in my accusation, just to make sure we are both referring to the same thing the error was attributing something I said to LaserGuy, not the “proper mafia” thing in itself]. You’re too good not to be aware of exactly who accused you of what, if you really cared about sorting them. So I’m wary of you, and I’m thinking about your claims.

Oh ppfft. This game is falling in place. Or falling apart.

I can say, from my PM, that there are indeed 3 alien factions.

Ok I was going to FoS freezeblade over this, because I first read this as “there are three alien factions mentioned in my pm” typing this up I see that he is only claiming that because of info in his pm he knows there are three factions, hey maybe I’m sobering up.

Town-scum list with some gut reads, I meant to do more with this and had planned to be home tonight but I wasn’t so I didn’t. But I want to post as much as I can before people start disappearing for the weekend. I tried to work on the people in the middle first, I’ll expand on this tomorrow.

bessie – townie
plytho - probably town
LaserGuy – probably town. Interesting reply to Sabrar here. He is wary of me me me.
Vicarin – maybe town
Maven89- maybe town

jimbobmacdoodle – Maybe town, shit I was going to say something about why he is here on my list but I completely forgot what it was. Pre post edit, I remembered. I had a town read on him for most of the game, but in light of today’s content, I’m pondering this early post. It seems that perhaps this game is more like WoT2 than I previously speculated from what is in my role pm, maybe I should be suspicious of jimbob. Or maybe not because perhaps he would be more likely to look for similarities between this game and his game (being closer to it), or perhaps he’s just more insightful and beat me at setup spec.
freezeblade – Heck if I know he’s always scummy on D1 anyway regardless of alignment, and I’ve wrongly attacked him for it before (see Dollhouse, Draculafia, probably more). Hopefully he will leave me some more content tomorrow to analyze before he disappears for the weekend.
Mark_Cangila - possible alien, possibly just a newbie trying to learn the game
Liri – possible alien

mpolo - alien
Sabrar – claimed Mercora/survivor
SDK - claimed Mercora/survivor
wam - Garatron/mafia

I’ve been working on this post since about 10:30 my time, so there’s been many new posts since I started.

[plytho]

Will we be informed if a faction has been eliminated?

[plytho]

(That has a massive influence on strategy.)

Also, jimbob's early defense of wam isn't looking as townie as it did before.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I really need to reread the last few pages of content, because I'm getting slightly lost in all the claims and implications thereof. From what I remember:

Sabrar/SDK/plytho: Mercora
Wam: Human xenophobe

Wam doesn't share my win-con, and I can't win with him (checked pre-game - we can only get a co-victory with one of the two mentioned alien factions). So, happy for him to be lynched. Will vote once we have some votals and it's safe to do so.

Will we be informed when a faction is eliminated?

Ninja'ed by plytho... Are you sure we aren't the same person??

I'm wary about assuming Illaman are survivors, but it probably makes the most sense.

Bessie, Wheel of Time 2 sprung to my mind immediately, probably because I designed it. The "town" win-con was essentially the same then as it is now.

Did I miss something from Mark or Liri? I'm concerned that we've either drowned the newbies in too much content, or they're both alien and unsure how to act, so have been stunned into silence.

Not going to do an ordered list without time to reread, and that's not going to happen until D2 now. Not sure if I'll even get to post again before then.

Suggestion for the Mercora: SDK cops Sabrar cops plytho. Agreed with the point that there's little reason in plytho copping SDK, due to SDK knowing about the race cop.

[plytho]

Liri and Mark have been quiet since SDK's post.

Liri, Mark, please provide a list showing who you think is likely human/mercora/Illaman/Garatron.

ninja by jimbob. Yes, evidently we are the same person. Also, I didn't claim mercora. Where did you get that?

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Liri and Mark have been quiet since SDK's post.

Liri, Mark, please provide a list showing who you think is likely human/mercora/Illaman/Garatron.

ninja by jimbob. Yes, evidently we are the same person. Also, I didn't claim mercora. Where did you get that?

I think it's plytho writing that from his own POV

There he is!

Mpolo's response to SDK's post shows he's still only aware of two aliens at that point.

Oh, I thought this was it. I take it that's not the case? If not, what did you mean by that statement?

[plytho]

That was a LaserGuy ninja. I was talking about mpolo.

[Vicarin]

I'm still slightly worried that no Illaman feel like they have the need to claim, despite the benefits for them of doing so. Seriously, not going to randomly lynch people who claim Mercora or Illaman unless they're lying.

[mpolo]

@bessie: No way to prove it, but I seriously saw two faction names in SDKs claim and assumed that they were the same two faction names I had. I did not imagine 3 alien factions as even a possibility in so small a game.

Now that we know that there are 3 alien factions, I wonder if we actually have 4-4-4-4-1 as a setup. Town doesn't need a majority to achieve their win condition. It's rather untraditional, of course.

wam is claiming to be a human SK. If he is telling the truth, town can win with him alive, but he remains a loose cannon and eventually a liability for us, whom we may well ultimately need to eliminate to achieve our goal. Of course, he could be lying about his role as well.
SDK and Sabrar appear to belong to the Mercora faction. They say they can win with town, and town can win with them. Not a priority for the lynch.
The Garatron faction: Town cannot win with them, so would be a priority for the lynch.
Illamans are hiding for some reason or another.

There is an addition aspect of the human role that we haven't discussed yet, but I suspect that all roles have that aspect, and it is either merely flavor, or there is in fact no SK, but rather a lyncher.

[mpolo]

EBWOP: s/additional/addition/

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Mpolo, please go back and check your role PM and the OP regarding wam and his claim.

[mpolo]

Ah. You mean that wam cannot possibly be a member of the Human faction (otherwise he would have our win-con), and therefore is included in the list of people we absolutely have to eliminate.

Vote: wam

I was thinking he was a human, but not in our faction, so was not included in those who absolutely must be gone for the human faction to win.

[wam]

vote wam

Ps jester is really easy when you are always considered highly suspicious d1

[Sabrar]

Possible last ditch attempt at misdirection, was most likely hammer. Still we have some more time as heury went to sleep a couple of hours ago.

[plytho]

I really hope that's a garatron bluff

[plytho]

Yeah, jester doesn't make sense with the wincon.

[Sabrar]

Excellent point, Mercora can't win with Jester alive, probably Humans can't either.

[Vicarin]

vote wam

Ps jester is really easy when you are always considered highly suspicious d1

Someone want to unvote so we don't accidentally end day too early in the unlikely case that wasn't hammer?

[plytho]

Sure.

unvote: wam

And mpolo, you actually sound like an alien pretending to be human. Just admit you're mercora.

[plytho]

Hmm, I slightly misread mpolo's post, but still.

[Vicarin]

Think the SDK cop Sabrar cop mpolo plan looks best atm, checking that mpolo is acutally Mercora doesn't cost much.

Any Illaman who find a buddy and claim with them tomorrow, or check whether mpolo is Illaman, get extra brownie points!

[Vicarin]

Any other high priority topics before day end?

[Sabrar]

I actually doubt that mpolo is Mercora because he voted SDK after SDK claimed to be one. But I will check him if that's the consensus.

[Liri]

Sorry for being less than active!

I also misread my PM! I was wondering when the alien species/factions would be named, at least the ones I learned about in my PM.

I worry about mechanics that might kick in if Mercora meet.

I'll make longer posts sometime today, hopefully.

[plytho]

I don't think I have anything high priority.

I think generally we should be cautious with information coming from (claimed) mercora. While we can coexist, they have other priorities than us.

I actually doubt that mpolo is Mercora because he voted SDK after SDK claimed to be one. But I will check him if that's the consensus.

You don't think that could be a bus?

Looking at that post:

@bessie: No way to prove it, but I seriously saw two faction names in SDKs claim and assumed that they were the same two faction names I had. I did not imagine 3 alien factions as even a possibility in so small a game.

What is the major slip in SDK's post that you did notice, then?

I feel Sabrar is possibly Garatron or Illaman pulling a gambit.

[plytho]

I'll make longer posts sometime today, hopefully.

Don't take too long. Wam was most likely hammered and as soon as Heury shows up and calls it Day will end.

[Sabrar]

You don't think that could be a bus?

No. jimbob already unvoted, you mentioned wam as a possible candidate for lynching, at that point I feel it was too early to bus.

[Sabrar]

BTW if there is a third Mercaro s/he is welcome to check me as well, that way Garatron can't just kill/block/redirect SDK to deny the proof.

[Liri]

I'll make longer posts sometime today, hopefully.

Don't take too long. Wam was most likely hammered and as soon as Heury shows up and calls it Day will end.

Working through now.

It doesn't look like either Garatron or Illaman have claimed, is that right? If we believe that Mercora are nice aliens.... which I think is a stretch to take on trust, then either (or both?!) of Garatron or Illaman have an NK? Is that a reasonable guess?

[Sabrar]

Almost certainly Garatron have control over the NK. If you're Town you cannot win while they are alive so they have zero incentive to claim while they can't control the lynch as well.
We have no idea about Illaman but several players acknowledged that they appear in their role-pm. Mercora didn't have a clue.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I'll make longer posts sometime today, hopefully.

Don't take too long. Wam was most likely hammered and as soon as Heury shows up and calls it Day will end.

Working through now.

It doesn't look like either Garatron or Illaman have claimed, is that right? If we believe that Mercora are nice aliens.... which I think is a stretch to take on trust, then either (or both?!) of Garatron or Illaman have an NK? Is that a reasonable guess?

Probably, based on the presence of survivors and the human win-con.

No idea if wam is serious about being jester. Regardless, FoS mpolo for putting wam at L-1 before we were ready to end the day.

I'm not convinced that mpolo is Mercora (why didn't he just claim then?), but could easily buy him being one of the other aliens.

[Sabrar]

No idea if wam is serious about being jester.

We already established that he can't be. FoS jimbob