Meta Mafia II: Day 5

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:12 pm UTC

Okay, I've got some time this evening, so I'm going to update my reads. It's D2 now, so there's clearly all sorts of useful information to be had, I'm sure. My previous reads list was here and there's been quite a bit more since then. Sorry that I'm not going to roleplay freezeblade on this, but it's how I work things out in my mind.

BoomFrog (previously insufficient data on threetwoone, slightly weird desire to wagon freezeblade):
Spoiler:
Asks for summary of action so far. Thinks fruit receiver claim would be useful to know size of scum team. Thinks vendor should wait until end game to claim. If SDK is scum, wam is town. Points out plytho not fully reading my posts. Hasn't read D1 yet. Tone suggests wam and plytho almost certainly town. Likes them exploring other options. Me and freezeblade likely town (neutral tone on SDK from me expected). Freezeblade gets points for thoughts on wam and plytho. Disagrees with my conclusion re. Madge and freezeblade for scum!SDK case - thinks not voting worse strategy for scum unless not caring about the lynch. Freezeblade not voting looks very bad for town!SDK case. Mark looks like newbie scum in scum!SDK case, from vote timing. Top 4 to keep eye on are SDK, Mark, mpolo, and LaserGuy. Thinks SDK has OMGUS goggles on, and thinks SDK is telling truth re. rolefishing. Wants to hear reasons for SDK wanting freezeblade and wam lynches.
@BoomFrog - it seems to me that your current reads are making the assumption that SDK is scum. Am I wrong? If so, why do you have plytho, wam, and freezeblade as town, and Mark and LaserGuy as scum? Also, why is mpolo on your list of people to keep an eye on?

I think my conclusion on BoomFrog is going to depend on his answers to these questions. Assuming my understanding is correct and his reads and focus are entirely based on a scum!SDK assumption, I'm not particularly happy there, since I don't think there's enough evidence to support this assumption, especially based on BoomFrog's claim to have not yet read D1.


freezeblade (previously suspicious):
Spoiler:
Votes me for "calling him out" on not posting. Accepts he mis-read my intentions. Not much to comment on as it is D1. Not really surprised by SDK scum read on him. Doesn't want to play like SDK. Doesn't know how he feels about the SDK wagon, and doesn't fully understand it. Can't read SDK D1 particularly. D2 - nothing to claim. I was still his scummiest read on D1 (gut read).
Freezeblade's not really done anything to dispel my early concerns. I'm doing my best to avoid OMGUS here, since he seems to randomly have a gut bad read on me. Yes, it's freezeblade, and he is known for not putting in much effort D1, but not committing to even an opinion on the SDK wagon, and not mentioning the other wagon of Vicarin at all seems like a bit of a cop out. Further, he's only posted once D2, with nothing other than explaining his vote, after being prodded on it. Seems scummy to me.

LaserGuy (previously slight town lean):
Spoiler:
Does not like lack of agreement with 7 hours to go. Presents the case for town!SDK just making mistakes, because scum would have been too self-conscious about role-fishing. Inconsistency/contradictory points by SDK look worse. Doesn't like SDK not refuting the case, and that he is pushing it as scum-motivated. Wants every player to comment on the wagon by day end. Doesn't see moody's case on Mark. Asks Sabrar to talk about wam, and Madge about Vicarin. Likes mpolo and plytho's stuff. Votes Vicarin as interim measure, due to noting comments about Vicarin being obvscum, but unvotes soon after. Doesn't like Madge, freezeblade and moody for not commenting on the lynch. Voted Vicarin because he felt he needed to shove a wagon as most weren't going anywhere. Prods me and moody with questions. Likes plytho progression on SDK, sounding townie, but dislikes SDK's read on plytho. Doesn't understand Vicarin PR breadcrumb fishing. Thinks this is Zen roleplaying. Doesn't like Vic's following posts, and thinks he should claim. moody and wam votes opportunistic. SDK posts look okay. Has naughty group of Vicarin, SDK, wam, moody, freezeblade. Votes Vicarin to break tie. D2 - thinks fruit receiver should claim. Doesn't think PRs should claim unless they have results to share.
LaserGuy seems to be one of the few (only?) other players, aside from me, who is willing to consider the town!SDK side of the argument, even if he doesn't really trust SDK. To me, this is good. He's also prodding lots of people, and making sure that he has some clear opinions on people (although his reasoning is somewhat lacking in many areas). His suspicions of Vicarin seem well-founded, and align somewhat with my own. Needs more recent content (only one almost content-less post D2), but still a town lean currently.

Madge (previously 3rd towniest):
Spoiler:
Big gap since last post before my reads list. Thinks Mark is flailing about like newbie scum, but less convinced later. Agrees with plytho re. SDK's masking of his question, but feels fine with SDK's defence. Calls LaserGuy scum (joke?). Reads may be for role-playing. SDK wagon seems odd, re. gaining such fast traction. Mark is improving. Agrees with case on Vicarin, but accepts his explanation somewhat. Thinks SDK is town. Vicarin top town read was vague hunch. Explains not liking LaserGuy (possibly role play as bessie here?). D2 - Should assume one set of bad guys for now. Gut says Mark is playing like newbie town, but uncertain. Likes plytho case on SDK, agrees logical, but gut says he's townie based on good posts, but second-guessing gut. Finds Mark scummier, but willing to trust plytho, and votes SDK. Not convinced on fruit recipient claiming, thinks they should only claim to confirm a fruit vendor claim. Discusses related strategy, and agrees with me when Vendor should claim. Explains to Mark when he should claim a result. Asks about fruit vendor being able to give specific fruit.
I'm genuinely confused by Madge's stance on SDK - she said towards the end of D1 that she thinks he is town, but has decided to trust plytho's case instead and is currently voting for SDK. Aside from him and Mark (and possibly LaserGuy, who I think she called scum because she's role-playing bessie calling Madge scum, but I'm not sure), I have no clue where she stands on the vast majority of players. Even an updated gut feeling list is better than nothing at this point. My gut still finds her slightly townie despite this, but she's definitely sliding down.

Mark (previously slightly scummy, and actually scummiest on my list):
Spoiler:
Posts promised big post. Answers several questions. Says he finds SDK comment to be role-fishy. Gives opinions as prodded on LG (slightly townie, some useful contributions), me (lean town, in depth reads list), moody (leaning scummy, thinks working with Madge), mpolo (neutral, minimal content). Asks freezeblade to explain his "lynching me will do no good for town" comment. Thinks it might be a gambit. Doesn't like Vicarin, as town!Vic is more aggressive. Split on voting SDK (for role-fishing) and Vic (non-town meta). SDK actions could have been a slip, Vic, could have been quiet, but ends up voting Vic. Thinks scum!Vic would role fish more. Thinks Moody and Madge working together. D2 - responds to mod-prod.
The thing that immediately came to my mind when reading through Mark's more recent content is that a lot of it is just recycled content from other players (SDK role-fishing, Vicarin non-town meta style) and he provided minimal other content, apart from a limited set of opinions on players after being specifically asked for them. In particular, this reminds of Peaceful Whale's first full game (I think it was that one) where scum!PW did basically that. He's also been quite quiet, which is hard to evaluate as a new player, but could easily be a case of not knowing what to say (which could come from either side I guess). Probably scum, in my opinion, though there is a chance of confused newbie.

moody (previously somewhat townie, but sliding):
Spoiler:
Needs to delve into SDK wagon reasoning. Thought Mark might be a werewolf, due to over-interest. Agrees with me re. Vicarin looking for PRs being bad. SDK dropped in quality but picked back up and now slightly townie. Unvotes Mark, explaining later that he accepts nobody was convinced about SK presence. Leaves space for finding SDK scummy. Lynching SDK very educational, and votes him, after apparently being persuaded by others. Thinks likely scum somewhere in plytho, SDK, and Sabrar. D2 - Agrees with wam re. confirmed town more useful later on. No longer believes Mark to be a werewolf. Thinks vote analysis would have been useful from SDK lynch. Reads through Mark, thinks him putting foot in it makes him town, but wants more.
I'm still a little confused why moody wanted to lynch SDK, whom he himself said he thought was town not long prior to deciding to go with it. I don't like this post where it feels like he's deliberately leaving himself the option to switch to SDK, despite his town read, should he need to (and indeed, I think this is part of the basis for his later vote). That being said, I'm not sure there's much gain here for scum!moody assuming town!SDK, and almost none for scum!moody assuming scum!SDK, so I think I have to leave it as at worst a null tell, and possibly even a town tell. I also don't particularly like how he never really looked at the Vicarin wagon. I'm feeling a little suspicious of moody now for feeling a little wishy-washy, and not looking at enough players, although judging by the ninjas, this might be improving somewhat as I write this wall.

mpolo (previously insufficient data, leaning towards scum for lurking):
Spoiler:
Somewhat belatedly, but before the original deadline, reads through plytho (comfortable with him), SDK (somewhat scummy, but could be defensible) and votes him for the scumminess, Vicarin (little scummy but not as much as SDK). After deadline, unvotes SDK, who has improved. Defends Vicarin a bit, but combines this with other weirdness making him look bad, moving him to top of lynchables. Reads wam (somewhat comfortable) and votes Vicarin. D2 - no info from night re. two teams. Needs to look back at SDK. Doesn't think fruit vendor should claim until later. Net utility on side of town for receiver to claim. Still torn on SDK, understands plytho's point, but he's putting in a lot of effort. Thinks SDK is still in his top two. Gut feeling on LaserGuy, but unsure why. Not sure what vote count is.
I don't really have any issues with mpolo currently. He might look bad if SDK turns up to be scum, but I'd have to go back and look at the timing of his vote on SDK the first time around to be sure. I'm happy with his Vicarin vote, since I found Vicarin scummy too. Leaning town.

It's bed time, and I still have plytho, wam and SDK to do. I will probably not have time to do them tomorrow, but will do Friday evening. My gut has plytho and SDK as town, and I'm unsure on wam still (I previously had him as fairly scummy, but I feel like his content has improved somewhat. Here's a provisional ordered list based on those I've read so far:

Town
*plytho
mpolo
LaserGuy
*SDK
Madge
*wam
BoomFrog
moody
freezeblade
Mark
Scum

*I don't really have a good feel for these three, especially SDK and wam.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:11 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I guess some people (plytho? Jimbob?) don't care for my vote on Vic. I mean okay, I read Vic wrong, BUT it's not like I hadn't been reading him as scum since page 2 AND said I would vote to prevent a tie. Which is what I did. So okay, if you want to read me as scum for that, go ahead. Me and my tequila will be over here being very sad about that.
Huh? What makes you think I don't like your Vicarin vote. That's the opposite of true. Here's what I said in my recent read:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:His suspicions of Vicarin seem well-founded, and align somewhat with my own.
The only issue I have is if SDK is scum, your vote doesn't look so great, due to it breaking the tie in favour of town, but it's not really a big deal, especially because we don't know SDK is scum (indeed I don't believe him to be currently).

wam wrote:Not sure if that lie is alignment indicative or not.
I doubt it is, since I don't think it is a lie, but I want Mark's response before I explain my reasoning.
wam wrote:Also i am about 75% confident we are in setup 10. Will explain later unless anyone else figures the logic out first
I have no idea how you got this unless you are a PR other than the fruit vendor, which I assume you are not claiming.
wam wrote:Ok so we have a fruit vendor. I have a plan that would allow the fruit vendor to claim through their fruit to their towniest reads is that worth pursuing?

@laser just do what I do on a phone and end up quadruple posting.
I'm curious to know what that plan is, but I have one too that I think is pretty safe: depending on who they target, the vendor gives out a specific fruit:
BoomFrog - blueberry
Freezeblade - orange
Me - Flamboyant potato (aka pineapple - sorry UK Games Expo in joke)
LaserGuy - apple
Madge - pear
Mark - peach
Moody - banana
Mpolo - melon
Plytho - blackberry
SDK - strawberry
Wam - tangerine

If the vendor doesn't want to identify themselves, or wants to use the fruit for a more general claiming strategy as was suggested earlier, they should use a different fruit.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:19 am UTC

Oh yeah forgot to ask: Madge, you previously seemed to think Mark was probably a wolf, IIRC. Now that you know he's not, do you have an updated reason for trusting your tunnel?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:37 am UTC

plytho wrote:The issue I have with jimbob's and (presumably) wam's fruit vendor limited claiming strategy is that it risks scum finding out who the fruit vendor is before town and being able to take them out safely. I think that outweighs the benefit for select townies to have a conftown.
Agreed, I think. I was just outlining the option. I guess that the vendor might want to confirm themselves to another confirmed (or near confirmed) townie though, so they now have the option, I suppose?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:33 am UTC

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought I'd mention it, since this has come up a couple of times now, but don't cops usually withhold town results until they need to claim for their own good/for a mass claim/MYLO/LYLO?

Also, in this case, assuming that the cop successfully copped SDK and got a town (or scum) result, they might decide to wait a while to see how the wagon forms, and who jumps on, before confirming their result. Or they may decide to withhold the claim, so that they aren't instantly tonight's night kill target (scum have a ninja in this setup, so can ignore the risk of being seen killing him, IIRC).

Summary, I'd rather lose VT!SDK than cop!somebody else - until M/LYLO, both are essentially as confirmed as each other, and in the best case, SDK and the cop both survive allowing for two confirmed townies later on. So, FoS on wam and whoever else it was that suggested that the cop should claim if they got a town result. It's a terrible idea. I even think it's a somewhat bad idea at this point for the cop to claim a scum result on SDK (scum result on somebody else is good, and should be claimed at some point today), as there is a reasonable chance that SDK will get lynched without that claim. If he doesn't look like he's going to be later in the day, then sure, consider claiming then.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:24 am UTC

plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought I'd mention it, since this has come up a couple of times now, but don't cops usually withhold town results until they need to claim for their own good/for a mass claim/MYLO/LYLO?
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:So, FoS on wam and whoever else it was that suggested that the cop should claim if they got a town result.
I'm pretty sure nobody has been suggesting cops should claim town results. I don't see where you're getting that from?
You're right, at least regarding wam. I misinterpreted his statement as being that a cop should claim a town result. I think there was another person who did too, but I couldn't find them in a quick search. Will try to locate what I was thinking of later.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:27 am UTC

Found it:
Madge wrote:@Mark: basically, only claim a result if you can get us to vote off scum or stop us from voting off town. Note that this applies if you’re a doctor too because people you protect on nights who don’t end up dead were probably town (definitely town if we only have one scum team, barring some vanishingly rare shenanigans).
The latter half of the first sentence is the key part - Madge is essentially telling Mark to claim a result to prevent us voting off town, which is not really a good idea if Mark is, say, a cop and got a town result, at least in the current situation.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:54 pm UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:D2 started 42 minutes after deadline, so my post about that was not a lie. Also, I should be posting more next week. I will be away this weekend though.
This makes more sense than what I had in mind - I suspected that Mark got mixed up midnight Sunday to Monday and midnight Monday to Tuesday. That being said, I never did think that theory through enough, and it probably made no sense in the context.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:22 am UTC

Usual on way into work scattered thoughts.
moody7277 wrote:Registering my intent to vote SDK, but don't want to yet because that would put him at L-1. I'll be looking over fb and LaserGuy tomorrow.
Why are you only just committing to this now? What's changed? If nothing, why did you not vote earlier?
plytho wrote:Hmm, Mark as SDK buddy is possible, that could explain SDK's motivation for pushing Madge away from mark
I'm not sure how willing newbie-scum Mark would be to bus. BUT if SDK is scum, there's a good chance he knew the writing was on the wall last night, and could have instructed Mark to do so. I'm trying to decide in this case if Mark would have hopped on a bit earlier in the Day.
BoomFrog wrote:I'm completely caught up now. My conclusions are LaserGuy's son is a cutie and Sabrar was killed for having too much fun haha.
Do either of these conclusions actually have any real substance to them? I.e. are they in any way significant to the game?

SDK - are you going to claim? As much as I doubt you to be scum, it seems most others disagree, and it would be good to get some reactions to any claim. If you claim PR, we need enough time for counter-claims and an alternative wagon.
wam wrote:Boom and laser are just pinging something in the back of my brain when I read through will try and either detail that or change my mind.
Any update on this?
wam wrote:Moody and mpolo haven't really left an impression on me.
What are you doing to resolve this?
BoomFrog wrote:I guess I meant. Please just don't talk about the Rolefishing inquiry incident anymore. Please don't rebut SDK's above post haha.
Definitely this. I'm half tempted to skip through all related material when rereading plytho and SDK this evening.

Too many players are being too quiet for my liking. That's usually not good for town.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:27 am UTC

@Madge, possibly I made a mistake in my post, or possibly you misread it, but my intention was that the fruit given would indicate who sent, not who received the fruit.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:45 pm UTC

I've got plenty of time this evening, so I'm going to update all my reads, where there's new stuff to discuss, not just the ones who I didn't get to last time. Note: lots of ninjas after I made the initial reads, since I've spent all evening on this off-and-on.

BoomFrog (inconclusive, awaiting responses):
Spoiler:
Responds to my questions. Thinks SDK scum from wam and plytho aggression. Acknowledges not real evidence. Wants SDK to be scum, admits somewhat biased. Thinks wam being too aggressive to be trying to set up town!SDK. plytho attack seems sincere, coming from town. I am looking townie. If SDK is town, only wam unsure about. Advises Mark to try and have a vote on someone who might be lynched, suggesting SDK, freezeblade or wam. Advises plytho not to just talk about SDK role-fishing comments. Asks him about possibility of mpolo or Mark as scum-buddy for SDK. Thinks unlikely both freezeblade and wam scum if SDK town. Prods plytho abotu not reading carefully. Thinks mpolo more likely scum if SDK is town, but counteracted by town!SDK gut read. Not giving SDK credit for tone, and actions have been poor, but wagon was too easy, Sabrar kill odd for scum!SDK, some comments hard to come from scum!SDK. Thinks the whole situation might be scum capitalizing on double town wagon D1, and votes wam. Prods for serious votes. Changes vote to freezeblade, pending RL explanation. Asks SDK why he didn't claim earlier. Responds to wam's objections to his scum!wam plan.
I'm happy with BoomFrog's response to my earlier concerns, and indeed, he seems to be trying to determine his own opinion on SDK and others, rather than going with the easy option of just following plytho and wam. Overall getting a townie vibe from him.

freezeblade (previously scummy):

Only the one post since, with no new content. Still scummy, though perhaps slightly less, since his low D2 content can be explained for RL reasons.

Ninja'ed by freezeblade. Sounds like a soft claim to me, and sufficiently soft that nobody can counterclaim. Hmm... will think about this some more.

LaserGuy (previously slight town lean):

Only one post, where he misread my comments on his Vicarin vote. I noticed on second read that this could be easily explained if he knows SDK to be scum (since it was only in this case that I labelled his tie-breaking vote as bad). There are only two ways that I can think of that he knows this for certain: 1) He's SDK's scum buddy (possible), or 2) He is a cop who targeted SDK last night (also plausible). Him thinking Mark, Madge and moody are not mafia for wolf-hunting seems a bit of a stretch to me. Overall, I'm a little uncomfortable with that post, so he slips a bit, possibly crossing the line into very slightly scummy territory now.

Ninja'ed by a long way by LaserGuy. Will read later.

Madge (previously slightly townie, but deteriorating):
Spoiler:
Top two targets are SDK (trusting plytho) and Mark (trusting tunnel). Claims fruit, and knows type, offering to use it to confirm vendor claim. Disagrees with it, but accepts others desire. Confused by my suggested plan, then proposes the same one as I intended. Backs down on Mark scum pick. Might claim as cop if town result, on lynchee.
The thing that stands out to me from Madge's content is her backing down suddenly on Mark being one of her lynch picks, despite no real new information from him. She needs to give that promised Woof/Grr list discussed previously, and try to explain a bit about her top scum read(s) apart from SDK. At the moment, it's too easy for scum!Madge to hide and not provide links to her buddies. Definitely sliding into possible scum territory.

Mark (previously probably scum):

Only real new content is his vote on SDK, so still probably scum.

moody (previously slightly suspicious, but improving):
Spoiler:
Suggests Mark putting foot in it enough to be town. Comfortable calling mpolo town from read through. Uncomfortable giving PRs advice. Registers intent to vote SDK. Answers my question re. his intention to vote SDK.
moody7277 wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Why are you only just committing to this now? What's changed? If nothing, why did you not vote earlier?


Well, to the best of my recollection, SDK was halfway to lynch within a day of D2 starting (checked the timestamps, D2 start 6:42pm Mon, third vote on SDK was 8:50am Tue, so 14 hours). I figured that the REO Speedwagon didn't need my help at that point, plus the usual "don't want to let scum short change us on discussion" yada yada. Plus most of yesterday I spent in a garage office while they replaced my car's water pump.
This didn't really answer what I was getting at, I guess. Why have you only just now restated your _intention_ to vote SDK? You could have done this at any point up to now in your posts this game day, yet I think this is the first time you've mentioned anything about your opinion of SDK since D1.

Away from this, I'm feeling mostly okay about moody, in that although I disagree with some conclusions (Mark is town for putting foot in it is not good reasoning in my opinion), he does at least look to be considering the other options away from SDK. It would be good to get some update on why he dislikes SDK though, because he appears to be just jumping on the wagon, with no real additional attempt to determine if he was right D1 or not. Slightly suspicious still.

mpolo (previously leaning town):

Not much new content to analyse. I approve of his open mind on SDK. That's about it, so still leaning town.

---

That's the catch up done. On to the remaining three:

plytho (previously town):
Spoiler:
Thinks SDK slipped. Asks me to comment more on SDK. SDK vote is weird. Agrees with wam that LaserGuy is trying to redirect the lynch away from SDK. Vicarin scummy, but more confident that SDK is. Highlights that extension at deadline gives double time for wagon analysis. Says SDK is deliberately misleading us. Doesn't feel like townie progress from SDK improvements. Vicarin claimed restriction plausible, but other things look scummy. Not pushing for lynches perhaps worst point. Considers Vicarin/SDK team. Calls for votes with deadline approaching. Restates case against SDK, summarised as SDK made mistakes, and didn't handle them well, with some hard to explain as townie. Asks me about why recent SDK content doesn't come from scum. Thinks both SDK and Vicarin scum, but SDK is more dangerous, and should be lynch. Asks others to join him. Restates case and highlights things he doesn't like again. Thinks likely to be night killed. Next suspect after SDK is freezeblade, possibly also Sabrar or Vicarin. Lots of minor comments about SDK and discussions on that topic with various players.

D2, votes SDK immediately. Summarises for BoomFrog. Still asks for opinions on SDK case. Posts later vote patterns. Fruit vendor comments, including suggesting fruit vendor should claim if fruit is claimed. Not convinced that confirmed town later is useful. Thinks vendor should counterclaim if recipient didn't claim. Assurance of only one scum team useful. Retracts counter-claim point for non claim, due to roleblock chance. Posts thoughts on wagons assuming SDK is scum. Not open to voting anybody other than SDK today. Gets into an argument with SDK, claiming he's focusing on the cover up more. Asks SDK why he isn't voting freezeblade. Disagrees with LaserGuy re. wolf hunters, since scum can easily provide content there. Doesn't like mine and wam's suggested claim strategy because it risks scum finding out who is the fruit vendor. Finds wam statement on cop claim somewhat contradictory. Starts to look away from SDK with questions and comments. Provides some reads (town = BoomFrog, me, mpolo, moody(?), wam, if SDK is scum; scummy = SDK, Mark (sliding towards), LaserGuy, freezeblade, Madge). Thinks LaserGuy likely SDK-buddy, wam + freezeblade scum if SDK town. Wants content from Mark. Willing to wait on LaserGuy until D3.
Disclaimer: I wrote this before my SDK re-read. I'm really not happy with how much plytho has been focusing on his SDK case. I'm not saying it's not well-motivated, but to me, I feel like he's barking up the wrong tree still. From my read of SDK's content up to now, I don't get the "he must be scum" vibe at all, despite the mistakes and supposed attempt to cover up, possibly because I have had similar situations in the past (if not exactly the same). I do like that he is finally starting to look elsewhere. There are a couple of odd things to keep half an eye on (e.g. the poor strategy surrounding the fruit and vendor claims), but it's not really raising any alarm bells at this point. Overall, probably town, even if SDK is scum.

SDK (very slightly town):
Spoiler:
Responds to plytho "making stuff up" comment, as misremembering. Game for lynching plytho. mpolo read is gut read. Switches vote to plytho. Doesn't understand Sabrar's vote on him. Updated read on wam following reasons. wam read list pretty good. I'm still town. Hopped on freezeblade to see what threetwoone would do. His lynch wouldn't have been the worst. Pretty sure Mark is town. mpolo is almost certainly town, based on style. Detailed reread of plytho and Vicarin. Talks himself out of plytho being scum, as he appears to have a townie mindset behind most of what he is doing. Vicarin is a bit concerning (no scum reads, breadcrumbing plan). Responds to questions from Sabrar. Explains info gain from lurker lynch. Wants to lynch moody for ignoring him. Rereads Sabrar, confident he is scum (passive play and faulty reasons for vote). Responds to Sabrar and plytho comments. Thinks it good most people ignored Vicarin's breadcumbing plan. Feels like Vicarin was more aggressive in previous games. Votes freezeblade after reread. More discussion with Sabrar. Thinks freezeblade would have commented on his wagon. Votes Vicarin, as not bad lynch.

D2 - Posts blocks of content written overnight (strongest twon reads are Madge, Mark, mpolo, me; also probably town moody, LaserGuy, threetwoone; preferred lynches are freezeblade, Sabrar, Vicarin?? Wonders if plytho could be Vicarin buddy. Tries to explain miscommunication with plytho. Moody vote was fine, but tying SDK to others, and effect of flip rubbed the wrong way. Finds Sabrar kill interesting. Finds wam comments on SDK weaselling out odd. Fruit vendor claim late can be extremely powerful. Against fruit receiver claiming, as little gain for us. Comments and questions wam on a few things. Wants to lynch freezeblade, or possibly wam. Doesn't think he's been that OMGUSy. Moody also someone he wants to devote more attention to. More discussion with wam. Gets angry with plytho over case, and tries to rebut it. Claims vanilla on prod. Does quick reads of wam, and changes mind to finding him town; moody too hard to read, skipping; mpolo is town; has moody and freezeblade as scum, and votes freezeblade.
SDK - you wrote a part of your first D2 post overnight apparently, specifically this:
SDK wrote:My preferred lynches are freezeblade, Sabrar, Vicarin, in that order.
How come Vicarin is there?? He was already dead by the time you wrote this!

There's so much to wade through from SDK, that I probably haven't given everything the appropriate level of focus. The general tone I get from SDK's responses to plytho on the case is from a case of "oops, my bad" to angry and annoyed at plytho for sticking at it too long. I don't think scum!SDK would have allowed himself to get so annoyed at this. I also think he's doing a good job at masking his scumminess, if he is indeed scum, with all the rest of his content. I agree with his thoughts on most players, apart from possibly Mark, and maybe wam (pending). I don't see him as scum, which makes him probably town.

wam (previously slightly scummy):
Spoiler:
LaserGuy looks very bad if SDK or Vicarin are scum. Would support lynches of any of SDK, Vic or Sabrar. Couple of questions to Sabrar. Explains his comment on LaserGuy on prodding. Unvotes SDK after initial deadline. Reviews Vicarin content, and then switches to voting him, as not being as aggressive. Thinks SDK comment re. mislynch would not come from town!SDK. Thinks there should be enough data from the SDK or Vicarin wagons to proceed from there. Thinks town normally find themselves firmly town, except for those always viewed as scummy. Lynching SDK or Vicarin is fine. Could buy a team between them. Doesn't have a town read of Sabrar. Votes SDK, buying plytho's logic. Acepts townies vote defensively. Thinks scum!SDK shouldn't post until deadline, because it won't help, and could be problematic for him.

D2 - revotes SDK, thinks he weaselled out of the lynch. Suggests advice for BF where to read. Skimmed the wagons - both town is less helpful than scum!SDK town!Vic. Thinks first person to receive fruit should claim, able to use as innocent child later on, when more valuable. Information generally helps town. Thinks plytho definitely town if SDK scum. Waiting for SDK defence. Looked back at dead townies reads. Highlights Sabrar suspicion of SDK, freeze and himself, and Vic of SDK and Madge. Notes Vic's mpolo/SDK link. Fruit receiver should not claim type. Suggests everyone give top two lynch candidates (SDK & freezeblade for himself). Nothing D2 has changed any of his reads. Thinks SDK logic fail may be a slip. Confirmed town thought SDK was scum. Wam had a plan for confirming the fruit vendor to their towniest read. Accuses Mark of lying (incorrectly). 75% confident in setup 10, as cop would probably have copped SDK and would have claimed a town result by now. Clarifies that he thinks they would have, but not should have. Has me, plytho and Madge as towniest, freeze and SDK as scummiest, unsure on Boom and Laser, due to minor pings. Thinks SDK wagon wasn't easy. Points out BF's change in view on him, and wonders if BF is SDK's partner. Asks BoomFrog what we would learn from a Freezeblade lynch. Prods mad for vote indicator (but forgets she's already voting). Promises reread.
I'm not getting any strong feelings on wam either way at this point. There are a few small oddities with his play that I find interesting, but I think he's more likely to be town than scum. One example of this is that I don't think scum would have forgotten that Madge was voting SDK already, especially if SDK turns up scum. I do find his comments re. cop claims weird and unthought out (or possibly intentionally sneaky bad suggestions). Overall, slight town lean.

Final ordered list:
Town
plytho
BoomFrog
mpolo
SDK
wam
LaserGuy
Madge
moody
freezeblade*
Mark
Scum

*need to think about freezeblade's soft claim a bit more. Current preferred lynch is Mark:

Vote Mark_Cangila

All the ninjas - not really read anything in thread since freezeblade's 9pm UTC post, and skimmed several posts before that.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:14 pm UTC

Picking up with assorted responses to stuff I haven't properly responded to yet. On freezeblade's soft claim: let's consider the three possible cases, to see if they make remote sense: 1) VT!freezeblade - I think it's unlikely for him to claim it here, as it just risks looking worse if he is pushed to full claim, and then comes up with VT (almost certainly resulting in his subsequent lynch, I think) - his tone from the statements implies that he's an important PR (i.e. not a fruit vendor, and maybe not the even-night tracker); 2) PR!freezeblade - fairly likely, if freezeblade is worried about being lynched. 3) scum!freezeblade - also likely, since it flushes out a town!PR. Basically, I don't think 1) is likely, which means 2) or 3), which means that freezeblade might as well just come out and full claim, if there's a fair chance of him being lynched (which there is currently, since he's my second choice at the moment, behind Mark, without a full claim, effectively making him 3 vs 4 for SDK, with several undecided).

I do find it slightly odd that BoomFrog seems to assume that freezeblade is not a PR, and therefore needs to be lynched.
LaserGuy wrote:Hi guys! I'm really sorry about lurking D2! I know my content today has been awful. If you guys really want me to replace out or something I totally understand, but it's only for a couple more days so I'd really rather struggle through and I'll be better D3 if I survive!
I don't think you need to worry about replacing, as long as your D3 content is better.
LaserGuy wrote:And nobody answered my question about mpolo either? Okay then. I'll put somebody who said they knew Sungara on the naughty list when I get around to looking up who said that.
I don't really know Sungura other than by reputation. I've read one game she modded (or did I play? Can't remember), and played against her in Smalltown 2 (which had 26 players, and she died fairly early, so...).[/quote]
plytho wrote:This post from SDK pinged me earlier as a hint for his scumbuddies to NK freezeblade.
Ladies and gentlemen: this is what a tunnel looks like. That's a massive stretch in my mind, especially as freezeblade looks pretty scummy anyway.
SDK wrote:
Madge wrote:If SDK flips town then Plytho is on the hot seat.

This is the first truly concerning thing I think you've posted all game, Madge.
I'm not sure I'd go as far as to say that this is the first truly concerning thing, but it did raise my eyebrows a bit.
plytho wrote:@jimbob: you’re convinced mark is scum but you’ve made no mention of possible buddies. Any thoughts on that?
Not really thought about this much yet. There isn't much content from him, but skimming his posts, I'd rule out Madge (early tunnel) and SDK (PM-gate - I don't think this would have come up at all between buddies - much more likely SDK and Mark would have discussed it pre-game). Probably not freezeblade either, due to his comments at the end of this post. Anybody else would be feasible (i.e. BoomFrog, LaserGuy, moody, mpolo, plytho, wam), without considering content from their side (i.e. I doubt you're his buddy, simply because I read you as so townie). On moody, my main concern is his lack of explanation of his SDK read, surrounding his vote (or rather intention to vote). He's the weakest of my scum reads currently, apart from Madge, who beats him because of early townieness.
plytho wrote:Hmm, maybe next time I should do a reverse read as I seem to run out of steam near the end which makes me focus a lot more on the alphabetically (dis)advantaged.
This is often how I feel. Unfortunately, I tend not to think about it until I start flagging.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:49 am UTC

Just going to point out that 4 players have yet to put a vote down, with less than 12 hours to go until deadline. Those who haven't done so, I expect a vote, or at the very least an explicit statement of who they would vote for.

@BoomFrog, if freezeblade doesn't come back with a claim by deadline, are you happy to lynch him?
wam wrote:I think we leave it till D3 as if SDK flips town we have 1 more mis lynch to use if we have competing claims.
I've been thinking about this comment, and whilst at this point I think we're going to have to wait until D3, I'm not a fan of it. The reason is that although a town!SDK flip means we still have one mislynch remaining, if freezeblade is scum, but we lynch the counter-claims, then scum can just counter-claim anybody. Actually, never mind, this is probably a bit too far a stretch to worry about. I still think it's better for PR!freezeblade to claim now, since he's likely to be the NK in this instance, and consequently we'll lose any useful results he might have (assuming he has any, of course).

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:25 am UTC

plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Just going to point out that 4 players have yet to put a vote down, with less than 12 hours to go until deadline. Those who haven't done so, I expect a vote, or at the very least an explicit statement of who they would vote for.
Moody already stated intent to vote SDK. He could have changed his mind since then though, since he also mentioned he wouldn't feel bad voting freezeblade.
Yes, this is who I was referring to when I said "those who haven't done so", since I have already picked at moody for that statement of intent.
plytho wrote:Will be checking the implications of the pre-game chat later.
Agreed that this is a good idea (I don't have time currently to do it), but I do want to add a word of caution that we cannot assume that a "lack of knowledge of pre-game chat" is equal to town (see also the "scum has/does not have day chat" conversations in recent games, where eventually some scum took advantage of that and fake-town-slipped.

plytho wrote:
Diemo wrote:I'm currently looking for a replacement for freezeblade.

Deadline is 3PM GMT +1, though I probably won't be online to call it before about 10 or 11 GMT+1
I thought deadline was 8 PM, please confirm?
bessie's last votals stated a deadline of 8pm GMT (UTC I presume). As I expect there are several sleeping players assuming this to be the case, please could you confirm the later 8pm UTC deadline.

plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
plytho wrote:@jimbob: you’re convinced mark is scum but you’ve made no mention of possible buddies. Any thoughts on that?
Not really thought about this much yet. There isn't much content from him, but skimming his posts, I'd rule out Madge (early tunnel) and SDK (PM-gate - I don't think this would have come up at all between buddies - much more likely SDK and Mark would have discussed it pre-game).
Unless [tunnel="SDK"]It was discussed pre-game but the interaction was planned, meaning SDK knew the answer ahead of time, which made it harder for him to consider alternative answers. [/tunnel]
FWIW, I don't remember us staging such a discussion in Dark Tower, when LaserGuy, SDK and I were scum-buddies. Whether it might be different for a newbie-scum, I don't know, but I suspect not.

plytho wrote:Non-tunnel: mark talking in thread during confirmation phase could be because scum chat had started and he confused that for game start.
Good point.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:26 am UTC

Diemo wrote:
plytho wrote:
Diemo wrote:I'm currently looking for a replacement for freezeblade.

Deadline is 3PM GMT +1, though I probably won't be online to call it before about 10 or 11 GMT+1
I thought deadline was 8 PM, please confirm?


Sorry, yeah, you are right
Also, please clarify - is the deadline 8PM UTC, or 8PM UTC+1?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:15 pm UTC

SDK - I don't remember seeing you comment in freezeblade's soft claim. What are your thoughts on it?

wam wrote:On my read through ran out of time before I reached SDK. I still think hes scum but wouldn't be too massively surprised if he turns up town. Issue is as boomfrog has stated SDK can do look townie and reasonable as scum. SO with 2 hours or so left am leaving my vote where it is.
I'm a little uncomfortable with this post. It's almost like wam is trying to make excuses ahead of an SDK town flip.

I'm not entirely sold on a moody wagon, but I think he's more likely scum than SDK.

Unvote
Vote moody

I'd still prefer a Mark lynch.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:05 am UTC

No worries Diemo.

I'm not really surprised about either of those flips. Based on my D2 wagon analysis, the people I want to look at as a result of SDK's flip are mpolo, wam, moody, and Madge. Of these 4, wam and moody are probably my top priority. I also need to take a look at the D2 SDK wagon, and possibly who was putting pressure on freezeblade (although to be fair, that includes me), although I'm not sure there'll be as much to look at either of those. And I need to review how my opinion of Mark should change (if at all) given these flips.

More detailed thoughts later.

Ninja'ed by plytho.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:07 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
Mark_Cangila wrote:That flavor text is gruesome as hell. I am in the process of writing a full reads list. I can post a half reads list if you guys want.
Half a reads list please.
Yes, please indeed. Anything is better than nothing from you.
plytho wrote:Ugh, sucks that we lost our most powerful townie first.
Yeah, Vicarin would be so useful around here right now :lol:
plytho wrote:One more thing to do is check if he crumbed his N1 target. Not sure if that info could be useful.
I can't think of much, since clearly the kill hasn't been blocked, so only the rolecop (I'm not sure if that's useful info) or town powers could have been, but it can't hurt to do this. I agree with the rest of your points being worthwhile.
BoomFrog wrote:Well, I think my opinion is obvious haha. I can't believe FreezeBlade actually soft claimed on D1.

Vote Moody
I assume you're referring to moody being scum here? Has SDK's or freezeblade's flip had any impact on this read?

Wam's posts today have pinged me somewhat. His challenge on BoomFrog's vote is weird, especially given his subsequent explanation. It sounds like a bit of a weird cop out to me.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:43 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Wam's posts today have pinged me somewhat. His challenge on BoomFrog's vote is weird, especially given his subsequent explanation. It sounds like a bit of a weird cop out to me.
wam-moody team?

It's certainly plausible from that point, though it's hardly definitive alone. I'll need to look at other interactions on that point.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:25 am UTC

plytho wrote:And I meant Freezeblade was the most powerful PR townie. Fruit vendor and even night tracker seem pretty weak and don't allow for much strategizing.
I know. That was a joke.

LaserGuy's main post, apart from the intro sounds like he's moving back towards normal LaserGuy. I like his questions towards Mark, Madge and especially moody. It seems to me that he's starting to belatedly get into scum hunting (admittedly, there are RL reasons for the delay).

@Mark - echoing some of what LaserGuy said, I don't expect you to post giant reads lists like my own. Every player should play in a way that's most comfortable for them. For me, I have the time, and find it useful to make a big reads list once or twice a game day, but it is much more important to just talk about what's going on and to answer questions. If you have to choose between rereading and following the thread, choose the latter.

On your partial reads list: I'm assuming you wrote this overnight. If not, why is freezeblade there? I note you didn't say anything about his soft claim. Indeed, it's not even in your summary. Why not? On your read of me, you say that I'm not making any suspicious mistakes, but that I'm misreading you. Do you think my read of you is justified? If not, why not and why is this not suspicious to you? I broadly agree with your comments about BoomFrog and LaserGuy. Finally, it would be helpful to get an idea of where you stand on the remaining players, although a full reread of them isn't necessary, as noted above.

Has Madge said anything yet today?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:27 pm UTC

Hey, sorry I've not posted anything in the last 24 hours - I've been distracted by other things. I'll get a set of responses and comments, followed by a big reads list tomorrow afternoon/evening.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:04 pm UTC

wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:Nothing just your normally more analytical and cautious than that.

I did my analysis already at the end of D2.


This is scummy in my mind as it implies boom knew sdk Lignment
An interesting thought, but I think it is worth noting that, IIRC, BoomFrog was one of those who didn't believe SDK to be scum.
moody7277 wrote:His final post sums up the main point I've noticed, and that is he has spectacularly bad luck in his reads. All four town flips he has at some point thought of as scummy. Of course it could be he's scum and is just finding players scummy in order to vote for them. :P Not that I can find much of anything to support that.
This conclusion feels like a possible buddy conclusion to me. Definitely worth looking at this possible team more if the other ever flips scum.
mpolo wrote:Asking power roles to claim at this point likely gives us no scum counter-claims (because scum can just kill the claimed PR in the night period), so pretty negative utility there.
Completely agree with this. I'm assuming that if either remaining power role had something that could somehow indicate who is scum, then they'd have claimed by now (although obviously it's up to them).
plytho wrote:wam:<snip>This statement about LaserGuy looking scummy on an SDK or Vicarin flip feels like it comes from a townie perspective (considering both are town). It doesn't feel like reasoning that scum would come up with.
I just went back and looked, and I'm not convinced by it at all. At the point of LaserGuy's Vicarin vote, there were exactly 2 players with more than one vote on them (SDK and Mark), both with 2 votes on. I think it's entirely plausible for scum!wam to post his explanation, pretending to assume a known townie (from his point of view) is scum, and building a case from there. It does make a LaserGuy/wam team less likely though.
wam wrote:
plytho wrote:
wam wrote:How does this align with all the statements saying I like bussing earlier in the game?
Are you saying I should call you town for having 4 townies at the bottom of your list? That would be too easy for scum!you, wouldn't it?


Nope but I think it should be a null tell.
These wam posts sound a bit defensive. Will look at them and surrounding wam posts a bit more when I do my read of him later.

General feel from LaserGuy's more recent posts is pretty good. I like the questions he's asking, and particularly like his concerns surrounding wam and moody, though I'm less sure about those surrounding BoomFrog. His read on Madge picks up on some things that I don't remember noticing about Madge (namely her sudden(?) swing in opinion on SDK overnight).
Madge wrote:With 3 mafiosi, the tracker’s odds of clearing someone are low. Hopefully we can keep them alive!
How do you expect a tracker to clear someone, unless we are down to 1 scum? I'd kind of assumed that it would be more likely for them to clear a PR or out a scum killer.

Madge, what do you think of BoomFrog's attempts to lynch freezeblade late in D2?
mpolo wrote:So, scum is going with the classic "eliminate everyone who is contributing so that we are stuck with a dying thread that is easy to push along" strategy.
I assume this isn't meant to be taken seriously, given who died last night...?
Mark_Cangila wrote:I also was willing to vote SDK at a lower bar, as he was close to lynching, and so many people had classified people based on the SDK flip. We need to read with SDK flip in mind.
Have you done any of this? If so, what were your conclusions?
Mark_Cangila wrote:I didn't notice FB's soft claim, because each section was written in isolation (in that I only looked at the persons posts, not others posts about the person).
You reread me, and I explicitly pointed out freezeblade's soft-claim. What happened?
Mark_Cangila wrote:It would be really nice to get someone other than Madge to claim fruit. This is to confirm her fruit claim. I could see a situation, albeit unlikely, where she is SK or wolf and lies about fruit claim. 1 NK would make sense because she, possibly with a team mate, would be waiting for the scum town fight, before turning on town.
Note: I am not saying Madge is a werewolf or SK. I am merely saying she could be, and a second fruit claim would be nice.
I think this is a terrible idea, but it is worth noting that Mark isn't entirely incorrect - looking at Matrix 14, from public knowledge, we could still be in setup 7. However, I expect that the bodyguard would have counter-claimed Madge, and I don't see any benefit in anybody lying about the fruit. I'm not sure how I feel about this post overall - I think it's possible this is just newbie!Mark, not specifically newbie-scum!Mark, though in general, suggesting terrible plans seems scummy to me.

On plytho's read of moody, I feel like most of it are good points. However, one thing that pings me slightly is the first paragraph:
plytho wrote:Moody: Early D1 moody focussed on Mark because he considered the werewolf question to be indicative of mark’s werewolfness. Knowing there are no werewolves (scum knew this from pregame) this is an easy spot for scum to hide. It allows them to be active and talking while not contributing anything relevant to the game, in the meantime they’re pretending not to know the setup by speculating about setups they know we’re not in.
Everything said here is true, but it doesn't imply scum!moody, since it's entirely reasonable for a townie to hunt wolves, if they aren't neglecting other scum!hunting too (note: I haven't looked back at moody to see if he was or not, although I don't remember having a particular issue with his early scum-hunting though).

Reads list to follow at some point later. Hopefully, with fewer players, it won't take me 4+ hours this time...
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:15 pm UTC

Today, I'm going to try reverse order, so that I can give people at the bottom end of the alphabet a fairer analysis. For reference, my previous list was here, and I'm continuing from there.

wam (previously slight town lean, although I had some issues):
Spoiler:
D2: reads list. BoomFrog switch from town!wam to scum!wam scummy (but maybe OMGUS); freezeblade netural; likes my reads, coming from town perspective; pass for LaserGuy due to RL; Madge could be scum if SDK scum - points out missed him off her reads list; Mark newbie town vibe D1, SDK vote odd; agreed with moody reads, feeling better about him; mpolo focuses on others; town read on plytho, getting stronger as considering non-SDK content. Was hoping freezeblade soft-claim would get overlooked, but wants SDK flip first before full claim, as extra mislynch can be used for competing claims. Points out PRs should check claims from others. Promises to reconsider D1 after discovered scum having pre-game chat. Pinged by moody comments about SDK/Mark more popular to lynch than FB. Explains more comments around FB popular lynch choice. Ran out of time before reaching SDK, thinks him scum, but wouldn't be surprised by town flip. Not going to switch wagons late, due to no chance for moody to claim.

D3: Surprised by flips. Needs to re-read. Thinks scum are lying low, so wants to review Madge and Mark. Comments on BF's early vote. Suggests he's more analytical than that normally. Thought counter-wagons were odd, thought it was scum trying to avoid being on a town lynch. BF's statement that he did analysis back on D2 as scummy, implied he knew SDK's alignment. Wants to have a deeper look at BF and me, scum is likely to be in players I can't read well. Challenges plytho on his reasons for finding him scummy. Thinks 4 townies at bottom of scum list should be a null tell. Didn't switch votes because too close to day end.
I'm really not liking wam's content in the time period I've reread. Practically everything he's said looks bad to me. I've already highlighted some things, but here's a recap. First up, his reads list was okay for the most part seems okay, but it did include a (self-admitted) OMGUS read of BoomFrog, no actual conclusion on mpolo (possible buddy link?), and no update on his current vote, SDK (stated due to running out of time, but surely should have been a priority if time was limited). I'm putting his comments about realising scum had pre-game chat and town PR claims alignment as null, since both could easily come from scum. His backing down on his opinion of scum!SDK is particularly bad, given SDK's flip. I'd say it also makes a Mark/wam team much more likely, given Mark was, at the time, the closest to an alternative wagon. He's also being a bit contradictory with where he thinks scum is, and has yet to provide a promised re-read on Madge or Mark (scum are lying low) or me and BoomFrog (scum are likely to be in players he can't read well). I've also previously indicated my dislike of his dig at BoomFrog's early D3 vote. Finally, I'm getting a bit of a weak defensive tone from some of his more recent posts. Conclusion: I think wam is scum.
wam wrote:Based on what we have seen scum are lying low so that means I want to look at Madge and Mark again.
@wam - I'm not sure you ever explained what made you think scum are lying low? Would you? Also, you later said that you think scum is going to be amongst those you can't read well (highlighting me and BoomFrog). Why? Also which is it? Both? Neither? What's happened to the promised re-read?

plytho (previously probably town):
Spoiler:
D2: Pinged by SDK post, suggesting buddies should kill freezeblade. Considers freezeblade to have soft-claimed PR. Assumes him town, SDK scum. Scum will probably try to NK freezeblade. Fine waiting for D3 for FB counter-claims. Explains SDK ping. Reads list: BF general feel is town, but possible buddy with SDK, generally coming from townie perspective. Freezeblade should claim D3, and defends him. Me - probably town. I look very good if SDK is town. Wonders about my read on moody and Mark. Waiting for D3 LG content. Madge still slightly scummy. Mark slipping due to low content. Doesn't think Mark/SDK buddies. Moody reads feel original and natural, moving towards townie side. Mpolo - remains town read. SDK scum (reads list has too many townies). wam - some suspicious bits if SDK town, otherwise townie. Surprised by Mafia having pre-game chat, might have to reread. Accepts BF has a point on FB's soft claim. Prods LG for vote. Thinks Mark pre-game chat might be indicative that he had scum chat. Unvotes SDK to prevent hammer. Thinks unlikely SDK would hammer, so replaces the vote. Moody wagon worth checking D3.

D3: Finds wam, Mark, moody suspicious following flips. Definitely in setup 10. Strongman useless now. Needs to read with a fresh look at everyone. Not going to give those moving the SDK lynch away a free pass. Will pay attention to late defenders. Might look closer at those who tried to lynch freezeblade. Possible hint that FB tried to jail me, but he had nothing to claim, so nothing to read into it. Suggests a wam/moody team in response to my comment on wam's challenge to BF's vote. FB's N1 target useless. Starts reading people individually. wam: having 4 confirmed townies at bottom of list looks bad, but reasoning is okay. Other comments come from a townie perspective. Doesn't like his top 2 proposal (less info than top 3 or 4). Also doesn't like "wouldn't be surprised if town!SDK". Push on BF vote quite weird. Could definitely be scum, but other things seem townie. Mpolo: D1 content looks good. Thinks scum would have preferred to lynch SDK. D2 no vote is concerning, and lack of promised reads on several players looks bad. Active lurky feel, and non-committal position is comfortable for scum. Asks mpolo about his decent town reads. No way SK would lie about the fruit claim. Second recipient should not claim. Moody: early focus on Mark's werewolfiness easy spot for scum to hide in. Motivation for voting SDK quite hedged, and notes that he doesn't update his view on SDK. Thinks he's avoiding taking a strong position on anyone. Asks moody questions about Mark's fruit plan. Mark: PM question could be scum-chat related. Interactions with Madge a little staged? General tone feels newbie town. Doesn't see fruit plan coming from scum. Madge: Interaction with Mark could be staged, but feels like there are scummier people than Madge. Asks her why would a fruit vendor target the same person twice.
@plytho - you didn't come to a town/scum conclusion on mpolo or moody in your read (although I can probably guess with regards to moody). Could you provide an ordered list as far as you are happy with, please?

Plytho probably has the most content of the remaining players, and I'd say about 95% of makes me read him as pretty solidly town. I feel like everything he's said so far is coming from a genuine townie perspective. I agree with a number of concerns he has about most people. I do feel like he's giving a little bit of an easy pass to Mark, but that's my only significant concern with him. Very likely town.

mpolo (previously leaning town):
Spoiler:
D2: tending to think plytho is town, but wants to reread him. Comfortable with Madge. Unsure about Mark, but PM-gate increases chance of town-PR. Provides read of plytho, highlighting lots of smaller arguments against non-SDK players as well as his SDK case. Reasonably confident in a town read. Thinks SDK made honest mistake, and needs to re-read him in isolation. Rereads wam. Only weird thing highlighted is a misunderstanding of wam's comments surrounding PR claims. Not jumping on Mark's timing error is more townie. Wam not a viable lynch target. Feels SDK best choice of lynch, but no strong feeling on him. Looks at freezeblade. Can read his maintaining the OMGUS vote on me either way. Overall kind of scummy.

D3: Late D1 one read on SDK turned out to be okay. Refrained from voting due to indecision. Says we just shouldn't mislynch (duh!). Has confirmed townie with one suspicion, but nothing makes his opinion better or worse than others. Should look seriously at SDK's reads. Highlights results of PRs. Can't see any way to leverage PR info. Scum going with eliminate everybody who is contributing. Has couple of decent town reads, no real scummy ones. Convinced plytho is town, and reading Madge as townie, maybe one more. Had wam as mostly townie with some question marks. Hasn't done a full read on moody.
Plytho highlighted that mpolo feels kind of active lurky, and I can certainly see that in some of his most recent content (especially D3). His D3 comments can be summarised as: 1) My town read of SDK was correct, explains lack of vote (okay), confirms setup numbers (meh); 2) Says we should look at SDK's reads, but doesn't actually do so himself (bad), also highlights PR info (meh), highlighting that we need to do normal scum hunting (and has not done any since, so bad); 3) this post feels like it should have been his first post of the day (bad); 4) plytho and Madge town, maybe one more (good); 5) wam also maybe town, need to reread moody (ok). I don't have a big issue with most of his D2 content, except for the fact that he didn't the leading vote candidate (SDK), and didn't place a vote. This looks particularly bad if one of the other wagons turns out to be scum (I'm thinking Mark or moody). Conclusion: the time period covered by this post looks quite bad for mpolo, but my earlier town read of him should be taken into account, so slightly leaning scum, but not definitively.

@mpolo - what are you doing to get some scum reads?

moody (previously slightly suspicious):
Spoiler:
D2: read of LaserGuy - hard to get through early posts, remainder confused by. Should be nervous about him. Read of FB - not a fan of his soft claims. Wouldn't feel too bad voting for him. Non votables - mpolo, me, plytho; unsure - Madge, BF, wam; votable: SDK, FB, Mark, LG. Responds to my comments about his SDK vote intention, and reconsidered Mark townie vibe. Thinks FB is claiming PR. Votes SDK, threatening to vote anybody who hammers.

D3: SDK flip didn't help much. Was hoping other shad better perspective. Giving plytho benefit of the doubt because of his earnestness. Plans to read through Madge and wam. Reads wam, and highlights his "bad luck" with his reads. Can't find much to support wam just being scum, finding players scummy to vote for them. Tries to defend his D2 SDK vote, as still wanting to get the info he could. Other reads were to look for other possible scum. Mark acceptable lynch target. Concerned that BoomFrog is being opportunistic. Plytho diversifying his read makes him not sure that he is scum. Provides ordered list (mpolo towniest, Mark scummiest) and votes Mark. Mark missing the lack of possible second faction is null tell. Read of Madge, tunnel on Mark is part of bessie RP, and happy with her mid-list.
Yeah, I kind of echo what others have said regarding moody. He doesn't seem to be taking any firm stances on most people. Even his Mark vote seems a little bit like it could swing away again, based on some of his earlier comments about him. He is steadily looking at most players (although I don't remember him ever reading me?), but the conclusions are a bit weak, at least recently. Still leaning scummy, though I think he's not the scummiest. Certainly, he's a possible buddy of both mpolo and wam. Probably not Mark, due to the vote, but I'm not certain.

Mark (previously probably scum):
Spoiler:
D2: Unable to post reads, but remembers BF townie due to good content and opposing wagon; FB is quiet; I am townie due to good reads and scum hunting. Maintaining SDK vote. Says will be a bit less active. No time for a full read of moody, asks for wagon summary. SDK is scummy, and would give info.

D3: Partial reads list - leans town on BF, happy with how quickly he changed from SDK to wam. Neutral on FB. Very townie on me. Fine with LG's Vic vote. If SDK!scum, Madge may be scum. Explains his willingness to vote SDK. We need to read with SDK flip in mind. Didn't notice FB soft claim. Thinks my scum read of him is justified. Switched vote D1 off Madge because her lynch wasn't going to work. More convinced she is town, now that there are no wolves. Wants someone else to claim fruit to prevent SK or wolf!Madge lying about it. Missed FB flip removed chance of wolves. Needs to do a reread.
I'm still uncomfortable with Mark. His lack of reads on half the players, including basically all the scummy players (wam, and moody in particular) isn't great. Having thought about it, I'm inclined to think that the bad fruit-claiming plan is not alignment indicative, since I don't think scum!Mark would be deliberately trying to mislead us with this. He hasn't really improved from my earlier opinion, so still scummy, although I think others have probably decreased enough to make him no longer my top scum pick.

Madge (previously sliding into scum territory):
Spoiler:
D2: Ordered list - plytho (good case, trying), mpolo (little content, but Sungura means trustworthy...) good; Mark (PMgate less suspect), SDK (plytho's case) bad. Plytho will be in the hot seat if SDK flips town. Doesn't think Mark werewolf interest coming from scum. Like plytho's strategy re. FB claim. Still thinks Mark's D1 content scummy, and reaction scummier. Thinks scum!Mark would be irate about being found scummy. Plytho's case on SDK would be the same whether from town or scum. Backs off a little on her plytho hot seat comment. Asks about mafia pre-game chat. Slight town leans on people talking about not knowing setup stuff, if yes. Thinks FB more likely scum than predicted by chance. No particular opinion on the claiming.

D3: No fruit N2. Lays out setup and restates her fruit breadcrumb. Tracker's odds of clearing someone are low. FB targeting info is null. Tries to explain her SDK vote a bit more. Asks LG about why BF pointing out FB PR claim bad. Doesn't understand why we'd vote off a PR soft claim. Doesn't think Mafia gets anything out of town thinking we've got a fruit vendor, due to risk of counterclaim. Fruit recipient shouldn't claim.
Madge is being, well, Madge at this point. I'm once again feeling like I don't have a clear up-to-date picture of her opinions on anybody. From Madge, this is quite normal however. Everything she's said recently is pretty typical of her. However, since she once again doesn't appear to be committing to an opinion, I have no option but to label her as slightly scummy, but heavily tempered by Madge meta at this point.

@Madge - what's your current woof/grr list look like? Any chance of getting a 1-2 sentence explanation on the positioning too?

LaserGuy (previously borderline very slightly scummy):
Spoiler:
D2: Puts Madge and others on naughty list for not responding to him. Thinks SDKvPlytho TvT, due to the way the argument has gone down. Sabrar probably didn't want to discuss VT claiming. Asks Madge about her plytho SDK case null tell comments and her SDK read. Has Madge (opportunistic SDK vote), wam (if SDK town, egging on conflict but leaving plytho to take the blame), moody naughty (if SDK is scum, possibly buddy hedging, but other content okay). Has everyone else except BF and FB nice. Votes Madge. Considering between Mark or SDK.

D3: Encourages Mark to talk to people. Asks him various questions on SDK and Madge. Also asks wam about SDK and his changing opinion, plus the Mark/moody wagons. Asks Madge about her SDK read and possible conflict. Asks moody about his SDK scum read etc, and current reads etc. BoomFrog's comments D2 around Freezeblade look bad in retrospect, due to him fishing for a soft-claimed-PR lynch, when he couldn't full claim. Compares it to NNY. Asks wam why he didn't prioritise SDK re-read. Continues prodding moody and wam. Votes wam. Does not think BF was attempting to signal to buddies. Asks mpolo for ordered list. Asks Mark about point of Madge lying about fruit. Gives partial read of wam (scum, backpedalling, not looking elsewhere), moody (scum lean, didn't like progression on SDK, hedging felt more likely coming from a buddy), Madge (scum, D2 vote a surprise, too much strategy talk), Mark (town lean, SDK vote opportunistic, but more likely town due to pings).
LaserGuy seems to have more-or-less reverted to type, and his content is better for it. I would like to see further reads on the other players he has yet to consider though, especially BoomFrog, who he seems to have some suspicions of. My biggest concern with him is the lack of moving his Madge vote at the end of D2, despite indicating that he was considering whether to move it. This doesn't look great if moody were to flip scum, since he had him on the naughty list previously. Overall though, I'm leaning town on LaserGuy again.

BoomFrog (previously townie vibe):
Spoiler:
D2: Explains Sungura meta. Thinks Freezeblade needs to be lynched, since he's confident he's scum. SDK anger could come from scum. Innocent mistakes more likely to come from scum. Has me, plytho, mpolo town. Mark, wam, SDK, freezeblade. Mark and Madge most likely buddies with wam or FB. But possible scum!SDK might have told them to bus him. Tries to convince plytho that we should lynch FB despite soft claim. Asks lots of people to comment on FB's PR claim. Switches vote from FB to Mark - wam gives townie vibes, Mark generally scummy and possible SDK-buddy. Moody more likely possible buddy with Mark or FB and wam not. Considers possible buddies for scum!SDK - Mark/LaserGuy/Madge highest, me, FB, mpolo, plytho, wam unlikely. Also considers town!SDK implications - wam due to letting wagon roll without pushing it, and dislikes other content; FB not caring about D1 vote; moody for not looking into the SDK wagon speed on D1. Me and plytho very unlikely. Happy to move vote to wam, if there's support. Switches instead ot moody, agrees likely scum.

D3: Immediately votes moody. Then responds to wam's criticism, and queries LG concern surrounding FB. Suspects FB was role-copped N1. Might want to look at who was overly accepting of PR soft claim, but rules me out for being too explicit about it. wam and moody top suspects, since his previous analysis is unchanged. Explains difference between NNY-Madge soft claim and FB soft claim. And explains he reckoned there would be time for a hard claim from FB. Wants mpolo to explain dying thread comment. Asks LG who, if only wam and moody are scum, which is scum. Also asks mpolo, Madge and Mark about their opinions on wam and moody.
I generally like everything that's coming from BoomFrog. He put quite a bit of effort into his analysis, from both possible outcomes, of SDK being lynched, and is continuing with it, appropriately. I'd be interested if he's got any updated thoughts based on today's contents, but overall I have no problem putting a town label on him.

So, I feel like I have too many scum reads :| I guess that's better than everybody being town. Here's my current order anyway:

Town
plytho
BoomFrog
LaserGuy
Madge
mpolo
moody
Mark
wam
Scum

Vote wam
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:13 am UTC

wam wrote:Gut is saying boom jimbob team with an agreed plan overnight to push the lynch onto me. But I want a re read looking for links before I will call that definite.
OMGUS much? When did we agree this plan? N2? Why is scum!BoomFrog not already voting you in this case? Why is LaserGuy?
wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Are you completely not paying attention?


What do you mean?
I suggest you go back and re-read BoomFrog's near end-of-day analysis post relating to SDK. At least, I assume that's what he's referring to.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:07 am UTC

wam wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
wam wrote:Gut is saying boom jimbob team with an agreed plan overnight to push the lynch onto me. But I want a re read looking for links before I will call that definite.
OMGUS much? When did we agree this plan? N2? Why is scum!BoomFrog not already voting you in this case? Why is LaserGuy?


Boomfrog isn't voting me he is clearly lining it up though. Laser guys feels more natural. And yeah n2 plan would be my guess. As I said it's a gut feel it could be omgus. This feels like an overreaction.
*shrug* Call it an overreaction if you want. I'm reacting to a gut suspicion that has come out of nowhere, from my point of view. At this stage (i.e. D3), I'm expecting more concrete reasons for accusations such as this. Independent of any possible link between us, why do you find me and BoomFrog scummy?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:39 pm UTC

Mpolo, from your list, it looks like you have one, maybe two scummy reads? Who do you think is the scum team currently? Will you be voting before day end in a bit over 48 hours?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:48 am UTC

Mpolo, wam, you never answered my questions to you from Sunday. Please go and answer them. Mark hasn't either, but then he's not posted at all since.

Could people indicate who their number two lynch choice would be, if they can't have their preferred one? Mine is Mark.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:47 am UTC

mpolo wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Mpolo, wam, you never answered my questions to you from Sunday.


The only questions I saw were "Who do you think could be a scum team?" I indicated that I could see BoomFrog as a partner to Mark_Caniglia. And "Are you going to vote before deadline"? I technically didn't answer, but I did vote, so the answer should be easy to infer. Or did I miss something? You have 6 posts on the previous page, and I thought I went through them all.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@mpolo - what are you doing to get some scum reads?
I was referring to this question from my reads list. One of my concerns with you is that you apparently don't have many (specifically, you only had 1 real one in your summarised list, IIRC) scummy reads. I guess you've partially and indirectly answered this with your comments on Mark, I just didn't see it that way earlier, though now I take a second look, I'm less concerned.

Also thank you wam, those were the questions I was referring to.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:28 pm UTC

I'm still thinking about those posts regarding Madge's setup confusion and whether they could sensibly come from scum. My inclination is probably not, but I need to think about them more.

The comments about Mark not being linked to anyone are interesting, because I feel like there were two or three players I noted links to when I was doing my reads list. However, that was mostly based on late D2 and early D3 content, so I need to look further back to see if I disagree with BoomFrog and mpolo. Unfortunately, I'm out all this evening, so I won't get a huge amount of time before deadline to do so.

From what I remember reading, I think a scum team of 3 of the following 4 still makes sense to me: Mark, wam, mpolo, moody, in no particular order of likelihood.

Ninja'ed by BoomFrog. Fair point. I'll take a look and see who we can agree on.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:45 pm UTC

Mark's lurking is beginning to remind me of his Alien play...

Request prod on Mark

I took a quick look at the bottom 4 of each of mine, LaserGuy's and plytho's reads lists. Mpolo and moody are both in all of them, with moody being the worse viewed of the two collectively.

@plytho and LaserGuy, would you be prepared to compromise to either?

Wam is currently mine and LaserGuy's scummiest, but 5th on plytho's, having improved a peg since page 18

@plytho - what changed? Would you consider voting him?

Mark is currently plytho's scummiest, and my second scummiest read, but LaserGuy's 3rd towniest, a read which I don't understand, given he also said there are some scummy things in his play.

@LaserGuy - how convinced are you on Mark? Would you consider voting him.

There are probably more points to look at, but I'm out of time.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:59 am UTC

I'm somewhat concerned Mark won't be around to claim before deadline, due to his inactivity (now 2 and a half days since his last post), so it looks like moody is the best shout:

Unvote
Vote moody

L-2, I believe? I think moody, and probably Mark too, should claim.

I'm not interested in lynching anybody outside my bottom 4 of {Mark, wam, moody, mpolo}.

I will try to find time to do a brief moody buddy analysis, as well as a Mark one before deadline, in case either means there can't be any buddies.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:57 am UTC

plytho wrote:Another concern: If mark is modkilled we're at mylo.
So, Mark is town?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:54 am UTC

I'm not sure I see your logic plytho. If Mark is scum, which your vote implies you believe him to be, then a modkill is beneficial to town. If Mark is town, then a Mark lynch is also not good. What you are implying is that you believe both of Mark and whoever you think will be lynched (i.e. wam or moody) are town. Which is directly contradicted by your actions.

IGMEOY plytho (I'd usually FoS at this time, but everything else about your play is so townie!).
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:25 pm UTC

I think that puts Mark at L-1 and moody at L-2, with Madge pencilled in on moody, but unlikely to actually vote.

Unvote

So that Madge can vote for Moody safely.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:26 pm UTC

EBWOP: Just realised that LaserGuy unvoted moody indirectly...

Vote moody

Unofficial Votals:

moody7277 (2) : BoomFrog, jimbobmacdoodle
Mark_Cangila (4) : moody7277, plytho, wam, LaserGuy

Not Voting (3) : Madge, Mark_Cangila, mpolo

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to hammer.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:52 pm UTC

plytho wrote:@jimbob: do you see my logic now?
Which logic are you referring to?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:14 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm not sure I see your logic plytho. If Mark is scum, which your vote implies you believe him to be, then a modkill is beneficial to town. If Mark is town, then a Mark lynch is also not good.
It's not good, but it's better than the modkill.

town mark: lynch: bad (4:3) modkill potentially good (4:2) or terrible (3:3)
scum mark: lynch: good (5:2) modkill potentially great (5:1) or good (4:2)

I'm trying to make sure we avoid terrible.
Right. Haven't had enough chance to think about it. I think the logic is sound enough, although my main concern is not the logic itself, but more the way you've gone about acting around it. At work now, will try to think about it more on the way home.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:20 pm UTC

@everyone - if you received a fruit that according to the D2 plan makes Mark the vendor, you really should claim!

plytho wrote:I think he's scum but I'm not confident enough to risk game-end over it.
Going back over the plytho logic, this bit of his post is the most concerning. If you think Mark is scum, lynching him is the logical course of action, as we can't guarantee a modkill. Indeed I'm opposed on principal on relying on modkill to influence the game, regardless of alignment. However, I think your logic does ultimately make sense otherwise (i.e.the conclusion is sound, if not the steps taken to get there). I do still want to review possible Mark buddy partners.

BoomFrog (?) made an interesting point about No Lynch, since that is the usual course of action in MYLO. I think this is only a reasonable course of action if we're pretty confident Mark is town and is going to be modkill. I'm not confident on either point.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:35 pm UTC

wam wrote:Fyi We have 30 minutes to deadline.
I was about to deny this, but nope, you're right :shock: Time to do that promised speedy analysis.

@BoomFrog, prior to doing said analysis, I feel like scum would have decided to bus by now, and Mark would be an obvious candidate. If the scum team is, as I believe, among {moody, Mark, mpolo, wam}, they need to find a way to dig themselves out of the hole they're in. A solid bit of bussing the entire day may be just enough to do that.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:48 pm UTC

Analysis of Mark buddies, looking at Mark's posts first:

Madge - very unlikely given his and Madge's early discussion. I doubt the two of them would have staged things the way they did. I also think scum!bessie-Madge would not have tunnelled one of their own buddies. There's similar pressure and suspicion on her throughout the game.

analyses a few people (me, mpolo, moody, LaserGuy), at Sabrar's requests, but only really finds moody suspicious, and there's not a huge amount of commitment there. He certainly never follows it up with a vote. Indeed, he says he prefers SDK and didn't find moody's recent content scummy towards the end of D2.

His D3 reads post has 3 people alive, and definitively labels 2 town, with no conclusion on LaserGuy (although it looks like he has no issues with him either).

That's all really where he posts concrete thoughts on still-living players, so aside from Madge, I don't think there's much to rule him out as a buddy from this angle. I'm going to take a quick skim of votes on him now.
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