Meta Mafia II: Day 5

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LaserGuy
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day One

Postby LaserGuy » Mon May 28, 2018 5:38 pm UTC

threetwoone wrote:@SDK
Because freezeblade is doing a fair amount of fluffposting and we might get info out of him.
frick i accidentally got spoiled from reading his posts what do i do


If you've read a spoiler, then please contact the mod immediately and refrain from posting until they decide what to do.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Pre-game

Postby LaserGuy » Mon May 28, 2018 6:28 pm UTC

Madge, have you seen orange? It looks awful on everything. There is no situation where it is better to use orange rather than yellow or red. I'm sure you're paying attention because you never miss ANYTHING so you already know what I think about the members of the Orange tribe.

SDK, I have been pretty up front about who I find naughty and who I find nice. Not my fault if you haven't been paying attention. But if there's something you aren't sure about, you can always ask. I'll even answer you!

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day One

Postby LaserGuy » Mon May 28, 2018 7:47 pm UTC

moody should be in the neutrals instead of jimbob on there twice. Otherwise, you're on the right track.

I think wam said he was away over the weekend, so I'm giving him a bit of time to see if he says anything I like. If not, he'll be on the naughty list.

Sabrar is still on the nice list.

freezeblade looks scummy to me, but he looks scummy to me every game, so IDK. freezeblade is on the naughty list, but I'd rather lynch Vicarin or plytho over freezeblade at this point.


Ooh! moody self-voted. How exciting!

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day One

Postby LaserGuy » Tue May 29, 2018 4:17 pm UTC

Sorry I didn't post last night. I was planning on it, but my wife and I started watching this show called Westworld and it is AMAZING and I can't believe I heard of this before and OH MY GOD Anthony Hopkins and Ed Harris are both my favorites and if you spoil anything I will CUT YOU. So we may have been binge watching that until almost 1 in the morning and there was no time for mafia after that.

Madge wrote:Nonsense. LaserGuy has been very unMadge-like in this. I feel like he’s not complained about D1 and loudly complained he should have signed up as a replacement but then loudly opined that he’d still be replacing in D1 and wouldn’t have gotten to choose who he played.


Sorry, I will rectify this immediately.

SDK wrote:@LaserGuy: Why plytho?


Most of my reads D1 are a combination of gutreads, tone, and meta. There isn't really a lot to analyse at this point, which is one of the reasons why I hate D1 and normally try to replace in later in the game if I can. Once we get some juicy night results to analyse things become much easier for me. But if I felt that someone was being overly cautious, not wanting to engage, and maybe a bit lurkier than I normally associate with them, that might be enough to put someone on the naughty list at this point.

Diemo wrote:Oh sorry, threetwoone is being replaced.


Aw, sorry threetwoone. I hope you will play again.

Madge wrote:Why can’t you just say what you think? It’s not a hard question! If I didn’t have a vote down on Mark already I’d be placing it down on you. I love placing votes D1 because I can get so much out of peoples’ posts and I wish I had more than one but I am not the secret double voter.


I did say what I think: I hate orange. Are you reading me as scum because I don't like orange? What more did you expect me to say about it? Would it have been better if I had written a ten page essay with detailed footnotes and color photos of all of the abominations that this color has inflicted on us? Should everyone post their least favorite colors so we can do a comparison survey?

Madge wrote:Woof
Vicarin
Sabrar
Mpolo (if he ever lies I’d be very surprised)
SDK
Moody
Threetwoone
plytho
Wam
Jimbob
Freezeblade
Laserguy
Mark
Grr


Yay! Madge did a Woof to Grr list! Though I'm having trouble keeping her on the Nice list because some of those reads are very alarming.

Vicarin wrote:Weirdest thing to me about Madge is I have no idea why I'm her most townie read atm...


I know, right? Actually, that's the second weirdest thing. The weirdest is that she's SCUMREADING ME BECAUSE I HATE ORANGE.

An extension would be appreciated, Diemo. Especially if you do find a replacement.


I wouldn't normally support an extension of D1 because D1 is terrible, but I'll make an exception for replacement if that's what people want.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day One

Postby LaserGuy » Tue May 29, 2018 4:21 pm UTC

Oh, I missed plytho. plytho, like I said, I don't normally vote D1 and am not planning on doing so unless it's to save myself or to prevent a NL. If I were voting, it would probably be for Vicarin at this point.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day One

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 30, 2018 6:10 am UTC

bessie wrote:Official Votals:

Madge (1) : Mark_Cangila
freezeblade (1) : jimbobmacdoodle
Mark_Cangila (2) : Madge, moody7277
wam (1) : Sabrar
SDK (2) : plytho, wam
mpolo (1) : Vicarin
plytho (1) : SDK

Not Voting (4) : freezeblade, LaserGuy, mpolo, threetwoone


Guys? Don't mean to alarm you but, we only have like 7 hours left to deadline and we have no agreement about anything. This is very bad. Assuming deadline holds, I personally have like three hours tops before bed, and won't be around after that.

This is my serious face.
:evil:

Okay, I've read through the business with SDK and plytho (and more tangentially Sabrar/Madge). It doesn't look all that great for SDK from where I'm sitting. I can see the possibility of a scenario where Town!SDK was genuinely trying to help Mark to diffuse Madge's tunnel, and wasn't really paying attention to the implications of what he was doing, and then later messed up on some of the details of the posting because he was busy/didn't consider it that significant. Main reason I want to give this scenario some credit, probably more than it deserves based on the facts as presented, as rolefishing is usually considered so scummy that mafia are normally extremely self-conscious about doing it compared to Townies, so it ends up being a tell that gives a lot of false positives. I think if SDK had just asked Mark, somebody pointed out it looked rolefishy and then he retracted and dropped it, I probably would just let it go. The further points by SDK that seem inconsistent or contradictory make this look at lot worse, however. I also don't like that SDK hasn't really attempted to refute this case, particularly, and seems intent on pushing this as scum-motivated, which I don't buy at all. I think this is a wagon that everyone should be seriously considering, and I would absolutely like to see every player make a comment on this before end of day.

@moody I don't see the case on Mark at all. can you explain your vote on him in a bit more detail? You gave him "slightly scummy" in your reads, then just kind of naked voted for him a bit later.

@Sabrar: Can you talk to me about wam? How confident are you in this read? What do you think of wam voting SDK at this juncture?

@Madge: Why is Vicarin your strongest Town read?

Liking mpolo and plytho's recent stuff.

Much as I don't like starting an eighth wagon at this juncture, I really do feel that this is the best way to go at the moment. I am a bit suspicious that several people have now commented something to the effect of "Vicarin is obvscum" then proceeded to ignore him and move their interests elsewhere. So I'm going to put this up there in the interim (ie. next hour or two). Willing to move to SDK or maybe wam if Sabrar is convincing enough. I think most of the other wagons are pretty bad.

Vote: Vicarin

:D
Not sure what came over me there. I must've nodded off.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day One

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 30, 2018 9:54 am UTC

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Liking mpolo and plytho's recent stuff.
You mean those [urlhttp://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4358352#p4358352]three[/url] posts I made since this:
LaserGuy wrote:But if I felt that someone was being overly cautious, not wanting to engage, and maybe a bit lurkier than I normally associate with them, that might be enough to put someone on the naughty list at this point.


I also liked this one from just before I made that comment, but that's the first post of yours where I felt you were actually scumhunting.

I'm done for the night. Not liking that Madge, freezeblade and moody haven't really commented on today's likely lynch at all, but maybe we'll get lucky and they'll show up in the next few hours, or the mods will bless us with an extension.

Unvote

Almost made it through without voting, but I guess this is close enough :P

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day One

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 30, 2018 11:01 pm UTC

Oh wow you guys, we got the extension at the last minute. Did not expect that at all. I guess it's your lucky day, SDK! I guess it's good because there's more time to figure out the lynch, but is bad because it means more D1. And we get more SDK!

On LaserGuy travel related note, I will be on vacation from the 6th-13th in Mexico, which is going to be A-MAZING, but that will probably mean that I won't be posting much during that time, and when I do, I will probably be drunky-drunk-drunk, which I am sure you will all just LOVE. We just got some headphones for my younger son so he'll be able to listen to something on the plane, and it's the first time he's ever listened to them, and he's just kind of staring at them like their magic, talking them off and putting them on with this huge grin on his face. CUTEST THING EVER.

wam, SDK already had enough votes for lynch, so there wasn't really any point in adding more. I wasn't planning on voting D1, and wouldn't have except that we had seven different wagons that were all going nowhere and I felt I needed to do something. Feel free to use this as evidence for me being buddies with SDK and/or Vicarin. I'm sure Madge will.

jimbob, did you forget about me because I went out of character? Won't happen again, I promise. But it's been only just 12 hours since my last post.

moody, why do you think it's more likely that Mark is werewolf for talking about it rather than this just being a newbie thing?
By the way, the PM thing is not something I found scummy because it's not the kind of PM thing I've come to dislike.

I have no idea what this is trying to say.

SDK wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I also don't like that SDK hasn't really attempted to refute this case, particularly, and seems intent on pushing this as scum-motivated, which I don't buy at all.


Can you explain this whole sentence? What do you think I should be refuting that I haven't, and how have I been pushing the PM thing as scum-motivated?


I don't think I can do this as Madge
:evil:
Essentially, I find plytho's progression on the rolefish issue to be very natural and townie, and I feel his case on you is quite plausible. Over the same period, you went from having a modest townread on him to a hard scumread, and your tone felt quite nonchalant and dismissive of the comments that he's making. So on the one hand, it seems that you found his push against you to be scummy given the progression in your read, but on the other hand, you didn't seem to really care about it all that much either. I don't really know how to square these ideas together. This post where you reread plytho has a better feel to it to me, but it's also in the context of having a large number of players more or less agree with plytho on this and you still being on the docket for the lynch.
:D

Also, a point of order: Vicarin was also Town in both Stellaris and Darkest Dungeon.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day One

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:24 am UTC

Sorry guys, I'm here!

I'm really confused by Vicarin's thing about the number question. Like, why would a PR ever do this? Why would they think to do this? It doesn't make any sense to me. I'm going to give Vicarin the benefit of the doubt that this part is him roleplaying Zen, even though I don't believe Zen would ever do this either.

Vicarin wrote: (you do rarely forget stuff)

How do you know this? Like, you've played one game with SDK and that game was... interesting.

I don't like most of his posts in this sequence, actually. I think you should claim as soon as you can, Vicarin.

moody and wam both feel kind of opportunistic with their votes to me. Not loving it right now.

Wow, look at all those posts by SDK! He's trying so hard. We should try to lynch him D1 every game! :D Most of these posts look okay, I guess.

Madge wrote::lol: i love roasting myself. Thank you. I love you so much. Your post made me laugh so much. But you’re still scum ;)

Madge wrote:I am just imagining what a thing of beauty your posts will be when you make them drunk. Please do this. NOBODY KILL OR VOTE LASeRGUY OFF UNTIL THIS HAPPENS. Thanks friends!

Aw, you're sweet. I think I've said this before, but I'm really loving your bessie, too. I'm sure she's cracking up in GoJoe.

In no particular order and with no justification, here's where you all ended up.

Nice:
Sabrar
plytho
jimbob
mpolo
Mark
Madge

Nothing:
threetwoone

Naughty:
Vicarin
SDK
wam
moody
freezeblade

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day One

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:22 am UTC

Promised I'd vote if it looked like we were heading to a tie. Liking the looks of this better overall.

Vote Vic

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:28 pm UTC

Sorry guys! Today is super busy because we're getting ready for our trip (TOMORROW! I'M SO EXCITED!!) so I probably won't have time to post too much. Hopefully tonight I'll have a bit of time to say a bit more, but we'll see how things go. If not, my next post will be from Mexico. I don't know what my content is going to be like this week. I was really hoping that there would be a few days before my trip BUT that night was SO LONG. I'll do my best to try to keep up with the thread, but I apologize in advance if my content this week is lacklustre or incoherent. I'll try my hardest while I'm away and I promise you'll get some epic content from me when I get back!

I think it's a good idea for anyone who received fruit to claim. I don't think the fruit vendor or any other PRs should claim unless they have a result worth sharing.

I love BoomFrog's heury.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:10 am UTC

Hi guys! So happy to be postng to you from Mexico! Food, weather, everything is great. I will be posting from my phone so I'm not even going to attempt to quote anyone and just post whatever and I'm sure you'll figure it out. Good to see people have been posting but ow those walls make my head hurt and maybe I should just to back to the tequila bar...

Okay, let's try and see...

So Madge is claiming a fruit? I hope it's a delicious tropical one. So I guess that means we know we're in one of two setups. Not going to look that up since everyone I'm sure already has. Pretty sure that means no wolves? So thats something.

I guess some people (plytho? Jimbob?) don't care for my vote on Vic. I mean okay, I read Vic wrong, BUT it's not like I hadn't been reading him as scum since page 2 AND said I would vote to prevent a tie. Which is what I did. So okay, if you want to read me as scum for that, go ahead. Me and my tequila will be over here being very sad about that.

Oh, if there's no wolves, we need to go back and reread D1 to see who was assuming the game was non-wolf and who didn't have a clue, right? Not going to do it, but maybe someone else should? Like Mark is so obviously never going to be mafia here. I think maybe moody and Madge were wolf hunting too? So probably not mafia I think.

Plytho vs SDK makes my head hurt, but my gut is TvT. Reminds me of plytho/Bessie. Too much nitpickery and misunderstanding. And Too. Many. Words.

Madge has just dropped her tunnel on both me and Mark for no real reason. I am disappointed by this. Is my content not scummy enough? Would it help if I put you on the naughty list? I feel like I'm not living up to my potential here.

Is mpolo's content roleplaying Sungara and I have just missed it because he chose someone I don't know (which I'm STILL unhappy about, I'll have you know). His posts are so far out of my meta on him I have no idea.

Should I be concerned that I feel more Madge when I drink? Should Madge?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:35 pm UTC

Hi guys! I'm really sorry about lurking D2! I know my content today has been awful. If you guys really want me to replace out or something I totally understand, but it's only for a couple more days so I'd really rather struggle through and I'll be better D3 if I survive!

Madge didn't even acknowledge me poking at her for dropping her tunnel on me, so she's on the naughty list for real. And nobody answered my question about mpolo either? Okay then. I'll put somebody who said they knew Sungara on the naughty list when I get around to looking up who said that.

Plytho, I read your case in detail when back around page 8 or whenever it was. I haven't followed a lot of the recent stuff from you and SDK about this all that closely because have you seen those walls? And I stand by what I said before, which is: I think it's TvT because of the way that the argument has gone down. The specifics don't actually matter that much to me beyond that, though I've also already said I no longer trust role fishing as a reliable scum tell and would probably put it at null or maybe a bit scummy at most.

Not sure if anyone mentioned this or not, but I'm 90% certain that the thing Sabrar didn't want to talk about D1 from NNY was the discussion about whether scum would claim vanilla or PR in this sort of setup. I don't think it's particularly important, but some people were curious, so there it is.

Thanks BoomFrog! He is a cutie! My older son is having a bit of a harder time with the travel, and younger is like: beach? Best day ever! Golf cart? Best day ever! Bird flew past? Best day ever! Person in a blue hat? Best day ever! Speaking of which, need to run. Nap time almost over.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:47 am UTC

So there's a really loud wedding DIRECTLY off my deck tonight, so may be touch and go for the boys to sleep at all... So if this ends abruptly, that's probably the reason. Trying to be a good sport about it because it's a destination wedding so hard to fault them for going all out, but crossing my fingers things cool down by midnight.

@Madge, in D1 you read plytho's SDK case as a "null tell". What changed your mind between D1 and D2 that made him now your scummiest read?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:22 am UTC

These are some quick impressions of where I'm at. Won't have time for full reads so this is probably as good as you'll get from me until I get home.

Madge: Naughty. Vote on SDK feels opportunistic and poorly motivated.
Wam: Naughty if SDK is Town. Nice if scum. I feel like he's been egging on this conflict more than others while leaving plytho to take the blame if SDK is Town.
Moody: Naughty if SDK is scum. Nice if Town. Feels like he's hedging a bit on SDK read. Could be buddy trying to keep options open. Busier than usual which I don't yet know how to read. Other content okay.
Plytho: Nice. This is Town plytho.
Mpolo: Nice. Busier than usual. Not sure how to read that yet. Like the content but meta is freaking me out.
SDK: Nice. Discussed already. Inclined to believe him/plytho is a misunderstanding.
BoomFrog: Neutral. Is BoomFrog. Don't have enough to confidently read him without anything from D1.
Jimbob: Nice. This is Town jimbob.
Freezeblade: Neutral. Was reading as scummy. Tentatively believe PR softing as legit since he has no reason to claim otherwise. Don't want him to claim today.
Mark: Nice. Little content D2 beyond a potentially opportunistic vote. Still think he may be Town based on D1.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:11 pm UTC

Vote Madge

Ned to think about whether I'd do Mark or SDK if it came to that, but this is the best read I have right now.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:11 pm UTC

Hi guys! Made it back safe and sound. Thankfully just missed Hurricane Bud which was expected to hit my resort this weekend :shock:. The boys were both angels on the plane ride, which made the whole thing a lot easier. As promised, I will try to give you guys some better content. Thank you for putting up with my lacklustre content this past week.

So, let's get started and find some scum.

Mark wrote:That flavor text is gruesome as hell. I am in the process of writing a full reads list. I can post a half reads list if you guys want.


Okay, Mark, I want to say this as advice to a newbie that I think will be useful to you regardless of whether you are Town or scum. Spending a huge amount of time building a giant reads post is less important than actually talking with people and interacting in the thread. Ask questions, say what you think. Your reads are just a summary. They are the end product of your scum hunting. Rereading the whole game over and over again is very tedious and unfun. Don't do it. Just talk to people.

Now, let's talk. You voted SDK in D2 and said that was your current view. Can you explain why? Which points for scum!SDK did you like? Which points for Town!SDK did you like?

How has your view on Madge changed? You were pushing her pretty aggressively in D1, then just stopped and started voting for Vic/SDK.

wam wrote:On my read through ran out of time before I reached SDK. I still think hes scum but wouldn't be too massively surprised if he turns up town. Issue is as boomfrog has stated SDK can do look townie and reasonable as scum. SO with 2 hours or so left am leaving my vote where it is.


What influenced your view that led you to believe SDK might be Town after all? Why didn't you pursue this earlier in the day? If you were concerned about this, why wouldn't you make reading SDK a priority to reread?

What do you think of the Mark/moody wagons at the end of the day? What's your current read on moody?

Madge wrote:I’m having trouble keeping up (just been a bit down in the dumps today), so I can’t go back and look through everything, but my recollection is that town!plytho or scum!plytho would make the identical case on SDK, so it’s a null tell on plytho, not on SDK.


This doesn't seem to jive with what you said before:
Madge wrote:That is extremely suspicious. Thanks for pointing it out. SDK’s defense feels fine though, so nulltell, but at least you’re paying attention.


It certainly sounds to me like you are saying "plytho's point is good, but SDK's defense feels fine, so it's null over all". If not, how should I be interpreting this? (Also, apologies but I'm going to have to scale back the roleplaying so you're going to have to put up with more of me and less of you :D).

moody wrote:Basically, my opinion of SDK started downward around post 8, reached a nadir about posts 18-20, and has been working its way back up since. Had I been reading through at the time instead of watching Deadlist Catch, I may have even convinced myself to vote SDK. At this point, he's up to slightly townie according to my read; posts 25 and 26 really helped.

moody wrote:Okay, I'm going to play along with a hypothesis here. Sabrar is going full blaze against SDK, and it looks to me that plytho says here that I'm already suspicious of SDK, I just don't realize it yet. I'm thinking that lynching SDK might be very educational. To me, if SDK actually does turn out town, it would raise significantly my suspicion of {Sabrar,plytho}. There also seems to be something with Vicarin folding into it on the scum!SDK side of things should that come to pass; more to analyze D2.


Okay, so at the end of D1, you had SDK up to "slightly townie". You ultimately voted for him D1 for information. Why did you go back to scumreading him D2?

moody7277 wrote:
plytho wrote:I still want everyone's opinion of my case on SDK. Do you agree, disagree? What am I right or wrong about?


Well, I was voting for him end of D1.


Can you explain what you were talking about here? Okay, you were voting for him, but your vote D1 wasn't because of plytho's case.

Why didn't you include SDK in your D2 rereads? What do you think of the Mark/moody wagons at the end of the day? What's your current read on wam?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:26 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@JimBob: if you were scum FreezeBlade would you not claim a PR at this point? If we wait until D3 to compare claims we have given scum a 2 for 1. That's not acceptable.


BoomFrog wrote:FreezeBlade seems like he won't be modkilled, and if he is replaced it's unlikely we will get a good read on the replacement as they will have two days of catching up to do. If I was confident he was town we could let it slid, but in this case where he is likely to be scum, he needs to be lynched, and earlier is better.


BoomFrog wrote:
fb wrote:If I'm not set to be replaced by EOD, and I'm leading in the votes as a result, I will happily full-claim to help out, as mentioned before, lynching me would be bad for town.


@jimbob: Look at this, he is not actually claiming PR. He's just claiming town. There is wiggle room here for him to say D3, I'm just VT trying to attract the NK. You can't assume he is town based on this.


BoomFrog wrote:@Madge, mpolo, mark, LaserGuy, Moody (LaserGuy and the Ms haha)

So you believe FreezeBlade is claiming a power role? Do you think he is likely town or scum?


This looks pretty bad in retrospect.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:05 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:This looks pretty bad in retrospect.
Does it? Why? What do you suppose scum!me was thinking?


You were fishing for a lynch against a soft claimed PR in a situation where it would be unlikely he would return to full claim before end of day.

Why did you not believe freezeblade when he softed, but did believe Madge under similar circumstances in NNY?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:23 pm UTC

wam wrote:@laser he didn't have quiet the desperate scum going to be lynched tone I would expect. I thought the counter wagons T the end of the day were odd as based on the flip it could be scum trying to avoid being on a town lynch. I need to 're read to be more certain though .


Okay, so why didn't you pursue this at all? Why didn't you make it a priority to reread SDK in your end of day reads?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:12 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:@LaserGuy

On D1, plytho had produce what he felt was a strong case on SDK. He also pointed out in my read of SDK that I had paralleled some of his concerns. At that point we went off on the Vicarin wild goose chase, and I never got the info I was looking for. Don't recall exactly how I felt about him at the time. Some people had some way of concantenating the Vicarin lynch to deduce something about SDK. D2 I was still wanting to squeeze what info I could out of a SDK lynch, including trying to test why plytho was being so adamant about SDK (which incidentally means that I was in part voting SDK based on plytho's case). The reads I was doing D2 were to look for other possible scum than SDK.


Okay, what information were you hoping to gain aside from something on plytho? So you believe plytho is scum now?

Were you still leaning Town on SDK D2?

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LaserGuy
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:15 pm UTC

wam wrote:Because by the point I noticed it.wad.too close to.dau end.


Can you point to a specific post or posts that gave you this vibe?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:58 pm UTC

Vote: wam

Going to lead off with this for now.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:53 pm UTC

@Madge: I do not think that BoomFrog was attempting to signal (IMHO scum only very rarely attempt to communicate this sort of thing in thread). I do think it is possible that scum!BoomFrog could have been testing the waters for lynching an unclaimed PR late in the day.

@mpolo: Could you give me an ordered Town to scum list? Don't need reasons right not, just whatever you have.

@Mark: What would be the point of Madge lying about receiving a fruit? She isn't claiming fruit vendor herself. Can you explain what you mean by the lynch not working?

Will try to put some concrete thoughts down this evening when I have some time to do some rereads.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:01 am UTC

Partial reads...

wam:
Rereading him mostly solidified my earlier impression that he's been coasting a fair bit this game. He has a lot of posts, but especially in D2, he basically just sat on the SDK wagon and didn't really spend much time either looking at alternatives or trying to scum hunt much beyond that. While I feel to an extent this is true of plytho as well, plytho feels much more genuine in tone and was at least actively engaging with SDK and trying to push his case. My feeling is wam more had SDK as the designated lynch and wasn't really going to look anywhere else. As I allude to in my questions above, I find it troubling that wam suddenly starts backpedaling on SDK very late in the Day.


moody:
I don't care much for his progression on SDK. Had him up to a Town lean after the first extension, but then went ahead and voted for him anyway. I don't generally like people trying to lynch for information, which is moody's stated reason. I did get the vibe that he was hedging on the SDK lynch D2, though my feeling was that pointed more to a buddy unsure if he needed to bus or not.


Madge:
My biggest concern is her voting in D2. In D1, Madge was reading SDK as Town, and seemed surprised by the speed of his wagon. On the second page of D2, she decides plytho's case looks good after all and votes him immediately, and spends most of the remainder of the day talking strategy. I don't like that she also stopped pursuing anything on Mark or me after D1, but I can tentatively accept that this is probably at least in part due to her inability to keep up with the bessie meta.


Mark:
The dearth of strong content makes it very hard to evaluate him one way or the other. I feel his vote on SDK feels opportunistic and scummy. That said, my gut here is probably more likely to be Town due to a few pings that I've had earlier, but fairly low confidence. There's a lot here that I'm not sure if it is newbie weirdness or scum weirdness (or both, I guess).


Won't have time reread everyone today, but of these four, I'm looking at:
wam - scum
Madge - scum
moody - scum lean
Mark - Town lean

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:00 am UTC

mpolo:
I've been having difficulty with mpolo all game and am still not quite sure how to sort him. His progression on SDK seems fairly natural and reasonable. I'm somewhat concerned that I don't really have a good sense of where he is on most players and don't really get the sense that he has any real scumreads at the moment. Would love to see more from him. Going to put him at neutral and try to come back to this again later.

plytho:
I have got nothing but townpings from plytho all game. His conviction in his read on SDK just feels so authentic, I just really have a hard time believing he could fake this as scum. Would be very surprised if he were to flip scum at this point.

jimbob:
Like plytho, there's an authenticity to his posts that feels very hard to fake. Reads are well supported and is actively scumhunting. Looks very solid Town at this point.

BoomFrog:
Really tough one for me. I think his progression on SDK feels very good, and I like that he was actively looking for alternatives and pushing other avenues. Both moody and wam pushes feel credible and well motivated to me. I don't like the freezeblade push in particular, since I am a bit skeptical that BoomFrog wouldn't give more credibility to freezeblade's softclaim, and attempting to push the lynch onto a softclaimed Town PR is something I think Boom might at least attempt as scum if he thought he could get away with it. I like most of his other content and his reads seem well thought out. I think I'm going to put him down as a skeptical Town lean for now and see how things develop going forward.

I guess that gives something like:

Town
LaserGuy
plytho
jimbob
Mark
BoomFrog
mpolo
moody
Madge
wam
Scum

BoomFrog wrote:I like your work LaserGuy. So, if only one of wam and Moody are scum which do you think it is?


My read is stronger on wam, but I can see it going either way.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:12 am UTC

wam/moody are my choices for today since nobody seems interested in Madge for whatever reason.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:38 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Mark's lurking is beginning to remind me of his Alien play...

Request prod on Mark

I took a quick look at the bottom 4 of each of mine, LaserGuy's and plytho's reads lists. Mpolo and moody are both in all of them, with moody being the worse viewed of the two collectively.

@plytho and LaserGuy, would you be prepared to compromise to either?


As I said earlier, my preferences today are wam or moody.

My read on mpolo is weak, but if either of you have a good feeling on him, I can probably get aboard that. PoE has him in most scum pairings I can think of at this point, I suppose. One thing I do like about going for mpolo is that he isn't an obvious lynch candidate of anyone that I'm not sure about. wam wants BoomFrog; BoomFrog wants moody; moody wants Mark. Just need Mark pushing wam to complete the cycle :?

@LaserGuy - how convinced are you on Mark? Would you consider voting him.


Not my favorite choice at this point. I absolutely agree that the drop off in content today and the lack of scum reads is concerning, especially when both you and I specifically suggested to him that he should try to interact more. Mostly, I don't like that both of my scumreads are leaning on Mark at the moment as a first/second choice at the moment.

Should we be discussing claims at this point? I kind of think it might be worthwhile for Mark to claim whenever he is around next.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:39 pm UTC

plytho wrote:@LaserGuy, do you think Madge faked these two posts (particularly the confusion between the table and the text)?


This is a very good point.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:52 pm UTC

Mark was in the thread a couple minutes ago.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:04 am UTC

I have a bunch of meetings tomorrow morning so I'm not sure if I'm going to be around to play much beyond tonight. I can check in quickly if I need to move my vote maybe 3 hours before deadline, but that's probably it.

jim/plytho, are you happy with Mark? If he doesn't post before I go to bed tonight, I can move my vote that way if he's your preferred choice.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:54 am UTC

That vote doesn't give me a lot of confidence :?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:45 am UTC

Vote moody

Mark lynch giving me bad vibes. Happy to move back to wam if plytho wants to go that way. mpolo is okay too.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:30 am UTC

Need to sign off. Will try to check in at some point tomorrow morning if I can.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:17 pm UTC

I have no time. Will trust plytho on this one.

Vote: Mark

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:33 pm UTC

Tentatively going to believe the claim since I'm having a hard to thinking of a way that it could be faked unless most of the recipients are dead.

Troubled because Town!wam implies at least one of BoomFrog/jimbob is probably scum by PoE (unless Madge slip was fake). Maybe both in the worst case scenario :? Need to do some rereading and think about it for a bit.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:36 pm UTC

Current thinking is scum jimbob/moody/mpolo.

I'm worried about having BoomFrog in LYLO because off the Crossover debacle. But I don't think he's buddies with moody, and I think moody is most likely scum.

Haven't really had time to read much and may not until after the weekend, but I'll try to have a look at some people tonight.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:45 am UTC

Reading jimbob, particularly looking for references to moody, mpolo, BoomFrog.

On mpolo:
mpolo - Not said much really. I find it slightly weird that he said that he was concerned with SDK putting wam on three votes, but also finding wam's response an overreaction. Otherwise, nothing really suspicious, or particularly townie in his posts either. Would like more content here, as I don't really have enough to go on yet. Not really enough here to decide yet.

mpolo - (insufficient data, due to low content): still very little content, apart from a couple of comments on freezeblade and Mark. His lack of reads, or even comments, on anybody else is disappointing, and he's at risk of being labelled a lurker, unless he provides those further reads. Insufficient data at risk of being labelled as scum for lurking.


What's interesting here is both of these reads are fairly generous. Contrast freezeblade:
freezeblade - minimal content. What he has posted has largely been, from what I can tell, not to be taken too seriously (e.g. labelling team Orange as scummy for containing scummy characters, getting indie vibes from a team of 3, when there's at most 1 indie etc). I'm uncertain whether he is being serious with his vote on me (I'm assuming not). I don't think it's necessarily suspicious that he needed it pointing out that he should vote for me, as I think looking at the rest of his content, he wasn't being serious with the comment about voting for people voting over somebody's confirmation post. What is suspect is that he has no useful content so far. Scummy for essentially active lurking.

freezeblade - (previously scummy due to active lurking): 23 posts since my original reads. This might be a hint of OMGUS, since it includes me, but I find his focus on one team specifically a little weird, possibly even forced. He notes me calling only "one other member townie, Sabrar". I'm unsure what he's talking about here, because I also called Madge and plytho some degrees of town in my reads list, in addition to moody and Sabrar. LaserGuy's town read of me felt simply like a throw-away RP comment, indicating where he currently stands on me. I'm not sure I'd classify it as weird banter, just Madge-like style. Still feeling suspicious, though not as badly as before, because at least he's committed to some very basic reads on a few people.

He comes down pretty hard on freezeblade, especially in this first read, for minimal content, but essentially gives a pass to mpolo--twice. It's possible that he came down a little harder on freezeblade because of the team orange business and was subconsciously uncomfortable with being linked to moody so early.

I'm noting in jimbob's analysis of the SDK vote situation (for Town SDK), he says:
Point 1: plytho, wam and mpolo all look bad in increasing order for pushing a town wagon, with mpolo looking worst due to essentially being the one to seal it.

However, he hedges this a few posts later
I don't really have any issues with mpolo currently. He might look bad if SDK turns up to be scum, but I'd have to go back and look at the timing of his vote on SDK the first time around to be sure. I'm happy with his Vicarin vote, since I found Vicarin scummy too. Leaning town.

By D3, mpolo is no longer a priority:
I'm not really surprised about either of those flips. Based on my D2 wagon analysis, the people I want to look at as a result of SDK's flip are mpolo, wam, moody, and Madge. Of these 4, wam and moody are probably my top priority.


jimbob generally doesn't interact with mpolo a whole lot until D3/D4, and not even too much beyond then. Generally, my feeling is that while jimbob was saying he was considering mpolo as a surface level comment, he didn't seem all that interested in actually pursuing it, either in terms of his vote or actively questioning mpolo.

I think there's a decent chance of buddies here.


On moody:

This read feels a bit generous to be second towniest on his list, though looking at his list jimbob has surprisingly few Town reads early D1.
moody - Nothing particular stands out to me about moody's play. His reads list seems solid enough, although one or two of his conclusions are a little bit of a stretch, in my opinion (see my comments about his Sabrar read earlier, plus mpolo for discussing the setup??). His opinions on most players though seem to broadly match my own. Slightly townie.


jimbob pushes moody on the SDK-for-information lynch point, which is valid, IMHO.

Point 6: Moody's vote looks pretty bad as it seals in SDK as the second wagon at that point, when a third, potentially scum, wagon might still have been possible.

Contrast with his comment here:
. I don't like this post where it feels like he's deliberately leaving himself the option to switch to SDK, despite his town read, should he need to (and indeed, I think this is part of the basis for his later vote). That being said, I'm not sure there's much gain here for scum!moody assuming town!SDK, and almost none for scum!moody assuming scum!SDK, so I think I have to leave it as at worst a null tell, and possibly even a town tell.

The read is mostly fair, except it feels to me like he's hedging a bit in the second case for when SDK flips Town. This is similar to the mpolo read above, where jimbob seems to make a pretty strong statement about moody in his buddy analysis, then walks it back in a later post.

Noting that jimbob voted moody in D2 and D3 quite willingly. I'm willing to give him some credit in the former case in the event of a moody flip. In the latter case, it's interesting to note that he was checking to see if I would consider moving my vote to Mark, and when I declined and went for moody, he followed immediately. It may be that scum was fishing for a Mark lynch D3, but had basically given up on moody and were going to bus him aggressively if things started to move that way at all (noting that mpolo declines to vote in this sequence).

Definitely could be something there, but harder to say for sure since if jimbob and moody are buddies, jimbob has been aggressively bussing since end of D2.


On BoomFrog:

Nothing on threetwoone besides a complaint about his lack of content.

I feel like jimbob's opening tone was maybe a bit aggressive:
@BoomFrog - it seems to me that your current reads are making the assumption that SDK is scum. Am I wrong? If so, why do you have plytho, wam, and freezeblade as town, and Mark and LaserGuy as scum? Also, why is mpolo on your list of people to keep an eye on?

Do either of these conclusions actually have any real substance to them? I.e. are they in any way significant to the game?

Noting the mpolo reference here too. BoomFrog jumps to a solid Town read from here. In fact, if anything, future references from jimbob regarding BoomFrog are more likely associated with pushing other reads (e.g. he didn't like wam calling BoomFrog scum; didn't like my suspicions of the freezeblade wagon).

I could certainly read this as a buddy interaction, though I'm not sure that BoomFrog and jimbob would just hard townread each other in the way that they have. Also possible that jimbob was trying to buddy BoomFrog. Though I think it's somewhat low probability, a BoomFrog/jimbob/mpolo team is not impossible here, and is probably the worst case scenario, IMHO.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jun 26, 2018 6:51 am UTC

Working through BoomFrog...

Not a whole lot of interactions between BoomFrog with moody/mpolo/jimbob of note. Townreads jimbob fairly hard and maintains throughout the game. Comes out strong against moody near the end of D2 and maintains throughout the game. Basically doesn't interact with mpolo at all... starts off reading him as Town, declining somewhat throughout the game.

As mentioned earlier, I don't really get the sense that BoomFrog could be buddies with moody. He would basically have had to plan to bus moody quite far in advance, before moody was ever under any real suspicion, or went for it hard on his own D2 and sustained it. This is really the only pairing so far I've been comfortable crossing off as likely. Skimming through his reads on Crossover (geez that game is long), it looks like scum!Boom isn't a serial busser given the choice, so I think this read is fairly solid.

The lack of interactions with mpolo generally makes this very awkward :?

Looking at the possible teams:
jimbob/moody/mpolo
jimbob/mpolo/BoomFrog
jimbob/moody/BoomFrog
moody/mpolo/BoomFrog

jimbob and mpolo are basically lockscum unless Madge very effectively faked a townslip. Among last two is a toss-up between Boom/moody that is heavily weighted toward moody.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:13 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@LaserGuy - why do you rule out BoomFrog/moody and not me/moody, given I've been similar to BoomFrog in my stance on moody since D2?


Not that similar. BoomFrog initiated the push on moody at end of day D2 and has been on him ever since. You joined that wagon, but then moved back to Mark for most of D3.


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