Meta Mafia II: Day 5

[wam]

So, scum is going with the classic "eliminate everyone who is contributing so that we are stuck with a dying thread that is easy to push along" strategy.

Reading back through day 3. The above stood out. Given scum killed freezeblade who was lurking this is a wierd statement to come out with.

[wam]

Unofficial votals


moody7277 (1) : BoomFrog
wam (2) : LaserGuy, jimbobmacdoodle
Mark_canigla (3): moody, plytho, mpolo

Not Voting (7) : , Madge, Mark_Cangila, wam

I can see the mark case but it could easily be scum pushing an easy mis lynch on a quiet newbie town.

Ps Mark is at l-2

[mpolo]

The assumption is that there are scum somewhere involved in lynching our talkative townies, even if we are all guilty of it. (The statement was mostly an ironic assessment of how much traffic had calmed down, though, than a real analysis point.)

[wam]

Fair enough.

As others have said my reads this game have been awful so I'm going to go with my gut. It says boom, jimbob and one of moody/ Mark.

vote boom

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Mpolo, wam, you never answered my questions to you from Sunday. Please go and answer them. Mark hasn't either, but then he's not posted at all since.

Could people indicate who their number two lynch choice would be, if they can't have their preferred one? Mine is Mark.

[wam]

Sorry missed them, assume g you mean

@wam - I'm not sure you ever explained what made you think scum are lying low? Would you? Also, you later said that you think scum is going to be amongst those you can't read well (highlighting me and BoomFrog). Why? Also which is it? Both? Neither? What's happened to the promised re-read?

Scum lying low was due to the pile of mislynhes of active townies. SDK vicarin, the suspicion on me ect.

I wouldn't lie low as scum.in this situation but that has come back and bitten me see alien.

My reads have been wrong and I am left without any strong reads which means that scum are likely to be in players I can't read which is both of you.

I have been doing bits of 're reading but haven't managed a full one. Life's been a bit busy .

[LaserGuy]

wam/moody are my choices for today since nobody seems interested in Madge for whatever reason.

[wam]

wam/moody are my choices for today since nobody seems interested in Madge for whatever reason.

I stand by my d1 read that I don't think scum Madge could have managed that role playing. A read SDK agreed with.

[plytho]

I'm a little concerned that my co-voters are my number 2 and 3 scummiest.

I am also starting to buy into the Boomfrog suspicion brought up by LaserGuy (and others?) based on his freezeblade push D2. A freezeblade lynch would have been gold for scum. Reading back I also get the feeling Boomfrog was subtly fueling the SDK wagon without ever voting for him. With posts like this and this, putting SDK as second scummiest here but not really pushing him in any way, preparing his D3 plan without picking a side on SDK.

FB's claim came at exactly the time scum would false-claim.

Do you mean the first or the second time?

[mpolo]

Mpolo, wam, you never answered my questions to you from Sunday.

The only questions I saw were "Who do you think could be a scum team?" I indicated that I could see BoomFrog as a partner to Mark_Caniglia. And "Are you going to vote before deadline"? I technically didn't answer, but I did vote, so the answer should be easy to infer. Or did I miss something? You have 6 posts on the previous page, and I thought I went through them all.

[mpolo]

Started re-reading Boomfrog, only got to page 15:

Spoiler:

Asks for summary.

Fruit receiver claim good, vendor not. SDK scum => wam town. Plytho missed a line in reading jimbob’s post. Wam and plytho certainly town. Jimbob/Freeze likely town. FB not voting looks bad if SDK town. If SDK scum → Mark scum. SDK was not intentionally rolefishing. Wants SDKs cases against freezeblade and wam.

Needs to reduce positive feel of freezeblade.

Up to now only reading the room. Case from wam and plytho colors thoughts. I want to catch SDK as scum. Not objective. Doesn’t think scum!wam would be so aggressive, but it’s possible. Plytho’s attack seems to come from a townie place. Plytho is tunnelling too much. Who are SDK’s scummates? Mark should vote for someone. Suggests mpolo/Mark as scummates for SDK. Unlikely that both wam and freeze are scum. Plytho missed a post again. Mpolo likely scum, but SDK’s read is town. SDK wagon is too easy. Sabrar kill points too much to SDK. One SDK post very hard to read from scum!SDK standpoint. Clarifications. Pressure on FB.

Why didn’t SDK claim before first deadline. Argument with wam (who suggests Boom as SDK’s partner) Memories of Sungura. FB should be lynched. SDK’s anger only proves he wasn’t Rfing.

In isolation, he's looking a lot better, actually. My previous view on BoomFrog was colored greatly by the seeming sheeping that Mark was doing. Thus negative reading of Mark => negative reading of BoomFrog. I haven't gotten to the part where BF was pushing the freezeblade lynch despite soft claim, so I still have to see how I feel about it when that comes up.

Mark is still my best scum read, but I am at a loss as to who his scummates would be, which makes me very nervous this late in the game and this late in the day.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Mpolo, wam, you never answered my questions to you from Sunday.

The only questions I saw were "Who do you think could be a scum team?" I indicated that I could see BoomFrog as a partner to Mark_Caniglia. And "Are you going to vote before deadline"? I technically didn't answer, but I did vote, so the answer should be easy to infer. Or did I miss something? You have 6 posts on the previous page, and I thought I went through them all.

@mpolo - what are you doing to get some scum reads?

I was referring to this question from my reads list. One of my concerns with you is that you apparently don't have many (specifically, you only had 1 real one in your summarised list, IIRC) scummy reads. I guess you've partially and indirectly answered this with your comments on Mark, I just didn't see it that way earlier, though now I take a second look, I'm less concerned.

Also thank you wam, those were the questions I was referring to.

[plytho]

@LaserGuy, do you think Madge faked these two posts (particularly the confusion between the table and the text)?

[moody7277]

Could people indicate who their number two lynch choice would be, if they can't have their preferred one? Mine is Mark.

Sort of close run between LaserGuy and wam, although LG's last post would seem to make a vote on him seem more OMGUSy now.

[wam]

I think it's Mark but that's more a lynch all lurkers stance than anything else.

[plytho]

I do find it slightly odd that BoomFrog seems to assume that freezeblade is not a PR, and therefore needs to be lynched.

Hmm, looking back at this, this could have been boomfrog not expecting any more posts from freezeblade D2 after his replacement request. So from a scum pov there was no risk of a claim and it would take out a dangerous powered townie. Since, as you (jimbob) deduced yourself, he wasn't likely to be fruit vendor or even night tracker (which from scum's pov meant jailkeeper).

Updated list:

plytho
LaserGuy
jimbob
madge
wam
mpolo
Moody
boomfrog
Mark

[BoomFrog]

I wasn't pushing for his actual lynch, I wanted him to full claim before he disappeared. JimBob's post linked above came to the same conclusion, just less aggressively. VT!FreezeBlade was very unlikely, so there was no advantage for him to not full claim. Actually, the thing I most wanted was people's reactions to me insisting he full claim. However, I didn't get anything interesting out of that.

[BoomFrog]

@LaserGuy, do you think Madge faked these two posts (particularly the confusion between the table and the text)?

This is an amazing find. I'd been considering scum!Madge seriously but this is definitive proof of towniness. At the time Madge posted this if she was scum should would have known the mafia roles and that there is a fruit vendor. None of the text role sets match up to that reality. Scum!Madge would have known that the text was wrong from the start of D2, and there is no way she faked that sincere confusion. Madge is 99.5% town and plytho goes from 90% to 95% town for pointing this out.

[plytho]

I wasn't pushing for his actual lynch, I wanted him to full claim before he disappeared. JimBob's post linked above came to the same conclusion, just less aggressively. VT!FreezeBlade was very unlikely, so there was no advantage for him to not full claim. Actually, the thing I most wanted was people's reactions to me insisting he full claim. However, I didn't get anything interesting out of that.

That's really not what you sounded like:

he needs to be lynched, and earlier is better.

What kind of reactions were you expecting? Why didn't you actually insist he full claim?

[BoomFrog]

Clearly scum are playing well. No one has had any real scum slips. Mark has acted the scummiest so far, but we really can't afford to just lynch all lurkers and it's very possible that his oddness is just from being new. We are going to have to do this by process of elimination, and we will end up having to lynch someone who seems generally townie. I think most people (besides wam) agree that we can count out plytho and JimBob due to their extremely townie tone. I think LaserGuy is also in that category. Madge has just been proven town so that leaves:

Suspicious pile:
BoomFrog
wam
mpolo
Moody
Mark

I'll ignore myself for the rest of the analysis to avoid pointless wine. Wam seems fairly willing to lynch Mark. Moody is clearly willing to lynch Mark. mpolo is clearly willing to lynch Mark. I really don't see any three person scum team that Mark could be on.

I'm happy to vote wam, moody or mpolo. If that is not the exact scum team, I think based on tone and actions moody is the most likely of the three, so that's my preference.

[plytho]

You don't think people could be bussing Mark?

[BoomFrog]

I wasn't pushing for his actual lynch, I wanted him to full claim before he disappeared. JimBob's post linked above came to the same conclusion, just less aggressively. VT!FreezeBlade was very unlikely, so there was no advantage for him to not full claim. Actually, the thing I most wanted was people's reactions to me insisting he full claim. However, I didn't get anything interesting out of that.

That's really not what you sounded like:

he needs to be lynched, and earlier is better.

What kind of reactions were you expecting? Why didn't you actually insist he full claim?

Well that's what I get for being habitually manipulative. I remember my intention more clearly then my actual actions. I was just trying to put pressure on him and his theoretical scum buddies to react to the situation. I expected him to either come back and claim, and we'd have a counter claim or not post and get mod-killed. If he got mod-killed and flipped scum I wanted to have had some reactions to the idea that he should be lynched/claim. (for the record I'd forgotten that the likely outcome was a zombie replacement. I didn't realize that until during N2. If I'd been NKed and zombie replaced scum FB I was going to have such a hard time digging myself out of that hole haha)

Anyway, pressure to claim and react to the pressure is why I posted these things:

@Madge, mpolo, mark, LaserGuy, Moody (LaserGuy and the Ms haha)

So you believe FreezeBlade is claiming a power role? Do you think he is likely town or scum?

Mafia already have a much better idea then we do about this, so I don't think we gain much by ignoring the situation.

@JimBob: if you were scum FreezeBlade would you not claim a PR at this point? If we wait until D3 to compare claims we have given scum a 2 for 1. That's not acceptable.

[BoomFrog]

You don't think people could be bussing Mark?

They could be, but why? If the team is Mark, wam, moody why not push for someone else vulnerable like Madge?

[BoomFrog]

moody voted for Mark first, and I would have to check back, but I feel like the three of them have been pretty open to a Mark lynch before D3. Moody certainly talked about it D1.

[mpolo]

I had actually been in the newbie-town category on Mark until I read him in isolation. Now he looks scummy, but I don't see who to connect him to.

Unvote: Mark

I suppose with him having been at L-2, scum could have piled onto that, unless they were already there. That would have been moody and plytho. But I am pretty convinced of plytho's towniness.

Plytho => very high town probability
Madge => very high town probability
Mark => feels scummy, but seems to be townie nonetheless due to lack of links and reasonable scum-team possibilities -- actually an idea occurred to me that has me feeling even better about his towniness, but I won't reveal that for now.
BoomFrog => feels quite townie on reread

Which means that my four most suspicious would be wam, LaserGuy, jimbobmacdoodle, moody. I think of these, jimbob is the most townie, so I could see going for any of the other three at this point.

[BoomFrog]

@plytho, JimBob and LaserGuy. You three are probably all town and I think you trust eachother. You need to come to a consensus and vote together and the rest of town will follow. If you three can't agree then scum will control the lynch.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I'm still thinking about those posts regarding Madge's setup confusion and whether they could sensibly come from scum. My inclination is probably not, but I need to think about them more.

The comments about Mark not being linked to anyone are interesting, because I feel like there were two or three players I noted links to when I was doing my reads list. However, that was mostly based on late D2 and early D3 content, so I need to look further back to see if I disagree with BoomFrog and mpolo. Unfortunately, I'm out all this evening, so I won't get a huge amount of time before deadline to do so.

From what I remember reading, I think a scum team of 3 of the following 4 still makes sense to me: Mark, wam, mpolo, moody, in no particular order of likelihood.

Ninja'ed by BoomFrog. Fair point. I'll take a look and see who we can agree on.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Mark's lurking is beginning to remind me of his Alien play...

Request prod on Mark

I took a quick look at the bottom 4 of each of mine, LaserGuy's and plytho's reads lists. Mpolo and moody are both in all of them, with moody being the worse viewed of the two collectively.

@plytho and LaserGuy, would you be prepared to compromise to either?

Wam is currently mine and LaserGuy's scummiest, but 5th on plytho's, having improved a peg since page 18

@plytho - what changed? Would you consider voting him?

Mark is currently plytho's scummiest, and my second scummiest read, but LaserGuy's 3rd towniest, a read which I don't understand, given he also said there are some scummy things in his play.

@LaserGuy - how convinced are you on Mark? Would you consider voting him.

There are probably more points to look at, but I'm out of time.

[LaserGuy]

Mark's lurking is beginning to remind me of his Alien play...

Request prod on Mark

I took a quick look at the bottom 4 of each of mine, LaserGuy's and plytho's reads lists. Mpolo and moody are both in all of them, with moody being the worse viewed of the two collectively.

@plytho and LaserGuy, would you be prepared to compromise to either?

As I said earlier, my preferences today are wam or moody.

My read on mpolo is weak, but if either of you have a good feeling on him, I can probably get aboard that. PoE has him in most scum pairings I can think of at this point, I suppose. One thing I do like about going for mpolo is that he isn't an obvious lynch candidate of anyone that I'm not sure about. wam wants BoomFrog; BoomFrog wants moody; moody wants Mark. Just need Mark pushing wam to complete the cycle

@LaserGuy - how convinced are you on Mark? Would you consider voting him.

Not my favorite choice at this point. I absolutely agree that the drop off in content today and the lack of scum reads is concerning, especially when both you and I specifically suggested to him that he should try to interact more. Mostly, I don't like that both of my scumreads are leaning on Mark at the moment as a first/second choice at the moment.

Should we be discussing claims at this point? I kind of think it might be worthwhile for Mark to claim whenever he is around next.

[LaserGuy]

@LaserGuy, do you think Madge faked these two posts (particularly the confusion between the table and the text)?

This is a very good point.

[BoomFrog]

... I need to look further back to see if I disagree with BoomFrog and mpolo.

I actually disagree with mpolo. From mpolo's perspective there aren't enough scum without mark to make a scum team. Therefore one of me or laserguy is probably scum. But mpolo hasn't come to this conclusion yet haha.

[plytho]

I'm fine switching to moody or, to a lesser extent, mpolo.

Wam has moved to the townie half of my list for a couple of reasons: I liked that townie ping I got when I read him earlier, other people have become more suspicious to me, and I think I like that he talks a lot. Taking a quick look at his D3 content has me doubting him again, though.

[BoomFrog]

FB's claim came at exactly the time scum would false-claim.

Do you mean the first or the second time?

Found this in my backlog to reply to. I meant the D2 claim. The D1 claim was absurd and I hadn't taken it as a sofclaim at the time. Only when the D2 claim tried to rest on the D1 one did I think it was implausible that a Power townie would claim like that. In a game with a potential rolecop I think it was exceptionally poor strategy to even hint at being a PR D1 when you actually are one. Alas, FreezeBlade clearly disagreed. I don't want to criticize his choice too much when he can't defend himself.

[plytho]

Only when the D2 claim tried to rest on the D1 one did I think it was implausible that a Power townie would claim like that.

So was it the combination or was it the timing?

[LaserGuy]

Mark was in the thread a couple minutes ago.

[BoomFrog]

Only when the D2 claim tried to rest on the D1 one did I think it was implausible that a Power townie would claim like that.

So was it the combination or was it the timing?

It was the timing of the D2 claim and keeping it a softclaim D2 when a softclaim is less useful for town and more useful for scum in that situation and the fact that he D1 claimed at all. Was he about to be lynched if he didn't soft claim D1? I didn't get that impression when I read through, but I only read through once. The whole thing stunk.

[bessie]

The conversation became a little more cheerful as the friends remembered happy times, but the game discussion slowed.

Madge: [laughing] Oh, yes, I remember! Senior year. That was one of my favorite classes!
BoomFrog: Hey, moody, whatever happened to that old car you used to have, the one with three doors that wouldn’t open?
moody7277: The neighbors got sick of looking at it and had it towed. It wasn’t worth paying the storage yard fees to get it out.
LaserGuy: wam, you’re awfully quiet. Something bothering you?
wam: Yeah I feel as if we’re not getting anywhere with this game.
jimbobmacdoodle: What’s your hurry? BoomFrog just ordered pizza.
plytho: [solemnly] Well, I guess we all do have something important we’re doing tomorrow morning, remember?
Diemo: We have plenty of time. Here, have another drink! Maybe that will help.
jimbobmacdoodle: Hmm, perhaps if everyone put down their phones and joined the discussion.
Mark_Cangila: OK, after I answer this text.
mpolo: To get things moving, why don’t we just vote again?
bessie: Vote Madge.
Madge: [annoyed] bessie, your vote doesn’t count.
bessie: Why not? Oh, wait. Unvote, vote Madge. There.
Diemo: bessie, your vote still doesn’t count. Never mind. bessie, why don’t you just count everyone’s votes?


Official Votals:

moody7277 (1) : BoomFrog
wam (2) : LaserGuy, jimbobmacdoodle
Mark_Cangila (2) : moody7277, plytho
BoomFrog (1) : wam

Not Voting (3) : Madge, Mark_Cangila, mpolo

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to hammer.

Deadline is Wednesday 8PM GMT+1

Request prod on Mark

Mark_Cangila has been prodded.

[BoomFrog]

Deadline is in 14 hours. Is that right?

I'll be on in the morning to move my vote of needed. About 12 hours from now.

@Madge: I know scum hunting is hard, but you should probably vote. At worst you can follow the person you find towniness and just magnify their scum hunting.

[LaserGuy]

I have a bunch of meetings tomorrow morning so I'm not sure if I'm going to be around to play much beyond tonight. I can check in quickly if I need to move my vote maybe 3 hours before deadline, but that's probably it.

jim/plytho, are you happy with Mark? If he doesn't post before I go to bed tonight, I can move my vote that way if he's your preferred choice.

[wam]

I should be online up to close to deadline.

vote Mark

Not willing to vote to any of the below today.

Plytho
Laser
Madge