Meta Mafia II: Day 5

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BoomFrog
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:31 pm UTC

I'm basically done. I'll give Moody one more chance to respond, but I can't imagine what he could say to convince me.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby moody7277 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:01 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I'm basically done. I'll give Moody one more chance to respond, but I can't imagine what he could say to convince me.


Looks fairly moot to me as well. You and mpolo are adamant, Madge is going to do whatever you say, and jimbob seems to be leaning that way as well. That's four right there, so I don't even have to pull a Vytron in this case.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby wam » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:42 pm UTC

vote moody

That looked pretty close to a scum claim.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:02 pm UTC

Down the hatch!

Vote moody
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:57 pm UTC

Vote moody

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:17 pm UTC

I'm happy for somebody to hammer. I'll hold off until my morning commute tomorrow though in case anybody else has any last words.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:25 pm UTC

At least we know that moody 100% is scum. First of 4 bullets dodged...
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:50 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:At least we know that moody 100% is scum. First of 4 bullets dodged...
Four?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:32 pm UTC

Sure you're right. I was thinking about sorting four people, but we only have to get it right 3 times and the fourth gets to enjoy sweet victory with us.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby mpolo » Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:10 am UTC

Vote: moody

I don't know if I'll be on again, so have to vote now.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:42 am UTC

That's hammer.

I'm enjoying the flavor btw. :)
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby Diemo » Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:44 pm UTC

It was a cool, late autumn night. The early evening sky had been clear, but clouds had arrived with the darkness, and temperature dropped. The small group gathered around the fire pit in Diemo’s back yard for warmth. As the air became cooler, the conversation drifted to past conflicts and old wounds were reopened.

Getting older is never straight forward. The idealized memories of times past can arouse a longing for the people and places of younger days. But this longing is not for these things as they are, but as they once were. And sometimes in trying to revisit the past, reality comes into conflict with those memories. There are some things that will never be the way they used to be.

BoomFrog: So let’s see, we started with thirteen players, and we’re down to seven. Diemo, is plytho coming later?
Diemo: No, when he couldn’t schedule a flight for today he decided not to come at all.
LaserGuy: Diemo already explained this earlier, weren’t you paying attention?
BoomFrog: He said plytho wasn’t coming tonight, he wasn’t clear about tomorrow.
wam: Well we’re all going to the class reunion tomorrow night or were you planning on continuing this game all weekend?
jimbobmacdoodle: At the rate this game is moving we’re going to be playing it for the rest of our lives.
wam: Why do you always have to be so snarky?
moody7277: Why are you asking dumb questions? Looking for something to discuss so you don’t made a scum slip?
LaserGuy: You’re the one acting scummy. You were scummy when we played this game when we were kids. You’re the one that told Vicarin to jump.
moody7277: No, that was you. You’re also the one that was taunting SDK.
mpolo: No, I’m pretty sure that was wam. moody was the one taunting Mark. Trying to divert attention from yourself, moody, or from a scum partner?
moody7277: Well if you’re not going to listen to anything I have to say, maybe I’ll just leave.
jimbobmacdoodle: Maybe we should just vote you out of the game, and then it won’t matter if you go.
mpolo: I’m getting frustrated with this game. Let’s just vote for moody.
moody7277: Fine. Diemo, I need to take a break anyway. Vote moody.
[moody gets up and leaves through the back gate, into the little neighborhood park on the other side of the fence.]
BoomFrog: Does that vote count? Should we just vote moody out while he’s gone or wait until he gets back?
bessie: Vote Madge.
Madge: You do realize that you’re insane, right?
Dog: Woof woof! Grr...
Diemo: [listening to the high-pitched squeal of a car quickly accelerating on the other side of the fence] I get the feeling that we are never going to finish this game.


Official Votals:

moody7277 (4 ) : wam, BoomFrog, LaserGuy, mpolo

Not Voting (3) : jimbobmacdoodle, Madge, moody7277


moody7277 has been lynched. His alignment will be revealed in the morning.


Deadline for night is Saturday 8PM GMT. I'll adjudicate early if everyone sends in their actions early (and I won't be asleep this time :P)
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby Diemo » Sat Jun 30, 2018 6:36 pm UTC

It was a sunny afternoon in early March. Spring was near, and the trees were blossoming early, the result of an unusual spell of warmer than average weather. jimbobmacdoodle was lost in thought as he wandered through the little neighborhood park at the end of the street. He hadn’t even noticed that he had reached the house closest to the park when he heard someone call his name. He looked up to see his old friend Diemo’s face peeking over the fence.

Diemo: Hey what are you doing here? I didn’t know you were in town. When did you get here?
jimbobmacdoodle: It was sort of an unplanned visit. I just arrived at my mom’s house about an hour ago.
Diemo: Why didn’t you let us know you were coming? Is everything ok?
jimbobmacdoodle: Well, I’ve been worried about my mom since she had that fall. She keeps telling me everything is fine, but I wanted to show up unannounced and see for myself, without giving her a chance to prepare. You know, see how things really are.
Diemo: [disappears and reappears at the gate] Still, you could have told us!
jimbobmacdoodle: Hmm, I know bessie and her dog visit my mom occasionally, and I didn’t want bessie to tip her off. It was very last minute anyway.
Diemo: [throws open the gate and gestures to jimbob] Speaking of last minute, come on back! We’re having a bit of an impromptu gathering ourselves.

[jimbobmacdoodle follows Diemo through the gate to the back porch, where he is warmly greeted by a small group of his old childhood friends.]

jimbobmacdoodle: It’s great to see you all! So what’s the occasion?
mpolo: Well, as I’m sure you’ve heard, Madge has written a novel.
jimbobmacdoodle: How could I not have heard? It’s getting really good reviews.
Madge: I just found out that I’ll be doing my first TV interview next week! I’m so excited!
LaserGuy: So we’re having a little party to celebrate.
mpolo: Diemo, I think I hear someone at your front door.
Diemo: Hey, it’s wam! I didn’t think you were coming
wam: I wasn’t sure I was going to make it I’ve got a big project at work but I couldn’t miss this. Madge congratulations on the book!
LaserGuy: Glad you could make it, wam. mpolo and jimbobmacdoodle also just happened to be in town this weekend.
bessie: [rubbing the ears of the very old Labrador Retriever next to her chair] It’s almost like it was fated that we should all be here. BoomFrog isn’t here yet?
mpolo: [gently] No, I already told you, BoomFrog’s not coming. He’s been in a very serious motorcycle accident, remember?
bessie: Oh, I thought that maybe he might be by.
Dog: Woof woof.
wam: So I’ve been traveling a lot for work and haven’t following too closely, what’s the latest news on moody’s trial?
mpolo: I read in the paper that the DA was going to push for attempted murder.
LaserGuy: Last I heard, moody is still claiming it was an accident, and he lost control of the car.
wam: Whoa attempted murder means they must have some evidence that it wasn’t an accident.
jimbobmacdoodle: Do you really believe moody would actually try to kill BoomFrog?
Madge: Hmm, I just had an odd thought, talking about moody reminded me of that game we used to play but never finished. Was moody a good guy or a bad guy?
Diemo: [pouring himself a drink] In that game, moody was a bad guy.


moody7277 was lynched and is dead. He was a mafia goon.

BoomFrog has been night killed. He was a vanilla townie.


Deadline is a week.


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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:11 pm UTC

Okay, here's the first part of my buddy analysis prepared overnight (hence why it includes the BoomFrog analysis - I see no point in deleting it). I've started with links from mpolo towards other players, and will do the reverse at a later point. I realised whilst writing this up that it would make more sense to have done the moody version of this first, but never mind. That part is further below. Skip to the very last paragraph, if you want the grand conclusion.

Links from mpolo towards LaserGuy:
Spoiler:
D1. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. [url]Post 5:[/url] LaserGuy is doing a brilliant Madge impression. Posts 6-13: nothing relevant (original deadline). Posts 14-15: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Notes quiet LaserGuy and indicates he has a gut feeling on him, but not got time to track it down. Posts 5-12: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-5: nothing relevant. Post 6: Scummy side of neutral. Posts 7-11: nothing relevant. Post 12: LaserGuy is in top three most suspicious. Posts 13-16: nothing relevant.

D4. Post 1: nothing relevant. Post 2: Has him in likely scum group with me and moody. Post 3-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Identifies LaserGuy in the scum team again. Post 6-8: nothing relevant. Post 9: Thinks LaserGuy scummier than me. Posts 10-12: nothing relevant.


Links from mpolo towards BoomFrog:
Spoiler:
S1. Posts 1-13: nothing relevant (original deadline). Posts 14-15: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-12: nothing relevant at all!

D3. Posts 1-5: nothing relevant. Post 6: Notes need to review BoomFrog. Post 7: nothing relevant. Post 8: Notes Mark's changing opinion on BoomFrog, and has a gut feeling BoomFrog could be linked to Mark, but notes again that he needs to reread him. Post 9: nothing relevant. Post 10: In response to a prod from me, notes again BoomFrog as a possible partner with Mark. Post 11: Starts reread of BoomFrog, but does not complete it. Feels a lot better about BoomFrog. Post 12: Feels quite townie on reread.Post 13: Feels like Mark is sheeping BoomFrog, and BoomFrog might have an air tight reason for trusting Mark. Link between them is a null link now. Posts 14-16: nothing relevant.

D4. Post 1: nothing relevant. Post 2: Thinks BoomFrog isn't scum "unless [he] really pulled the wool over wam's eyes". Posts 3-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Notes again the possibility of BoomFrog messing with us. [url]Post 6:[/url] Feels better about townie vibes from BoomFrog than scummy vibes. Posts 7-8: nothing relevant. [url]Post 9:[/url] Not 100% sure of read on BoomFrog. Post 10: Lynching scummiest from pool will hopefully give greater clarity on BoomFrog. Posts 11-12: nothing relevant.


Links from mpolo towards Madge:
Spoiler:
D1. Posts 1-7: nothing relevant. [url]Post 8:[/url] Link between freezeblade and Madge interesting. Posts 9-13: nothing relevant (original deadline). Posts 14-15: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Notes Madge's claim, highlighting setup implications. Lying!Madge would be a very high gambit, due to other PRs being able to debunk. Posts 6-7: nothing relevant. Post 8: Comfortable with Madge (unusual, as he normally reads her as scummy). Posts 9-12: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Reading Madge as townie, notes unusualness again. Post 5: nothing relevant. Post 6: Reading Madge as fairly townie. Posts 7-11: nothing relevant. Post 12: Madge very high town probability. Posts 13-16: nothing relevant.

D4. Post 1: Madge revealing her fruit is null tell. Post 2-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Thinks Moody nit-picking Madge, but he's convinced of her townieness. Post 5: nothing relevant. [url]Post 6:[/url] Feels better about townie vibes from Madge than scummy vibes. [url]Post 7:[/url] Hopes Madge will get the time to look more closely. Posts 8-12: nothing relevant.


Looking at mpolo's posts, some things jump out at me. On BoomFrog, he doesn't see anything at all about BoomFrog/threetwoone the entire first two days (although at least for D1, he does have an excuse, since threetwoone didn't say anything). He then decides to link him to Mark for some reason that I don't fully follow, before changing his mind after partially re-reading BoomFrog. Most notable is how easily he accepts BoomFrog to be town, based on the fruit claiming. Unfortunately, I feel like this last point doesn't necessarily indicate a connection between the two, merely just that mpolo already knows BoomFrog's alignment, i.e. he is scum - either mpolo knows that BoomFrog is town, and doesn't critically evaluate anything that leads to that conclusion, or he is scum, in which case scum!mpolo doesn't see a reason to critically evaluate a potentially incorrect solution. I'm inclined more towards the town!BoomFrog, due to my read of him yesterday, but I could easily be swayed the other way on that one, if I can see more links when I do the analysis from the other point of view.

On Madge, he says almost nothing about her D1, and decides she is town D2, whilst noting that this is unusual for him. I find his repeating of this "Madge being townie is unusual for me" statement a little suspect. His read on Madge fluctuates randomly with no further stated justification from fairly townie to very townie at various points D3, and by D4, he never considers her as part of the scum team, despite noting Madge's fruit revelation as a null tell (implying he supposedly cares about her alignment). This seems like a plausible link, since he's not really trying to sort her, but it's not a strong one.

LaserGuy is the most likely candidate from these posts, he is shown as somewhat suspicious throughout, from D2, but with always having other players to worry about ahead of him, there's no risk that mpolo has to actually commit to him. Now that we're in endgame, the late suspicion is more or less a requirement, since he needs to distance himself from his buddies.

Right, onto the links from moody analysis:

Links from moody towards LaserGuy:
Spoiler:
D1. Post 1: Brief comment on LG playing Madge. Post 2: nothing relevant. Post 3: Early reads list with LaserGuy as insufficient data, noting RP and certainty over Sabrar OTT. Post 4: Would maybe watch LG. Post 5: Corrects comment to saying he'd track LG N1. Posts 6-7: nothing relevant. Post 8: Explains LG not scummiest, possibly as weirdness due to RP. Post 9: nothing relevant. Post 10: Responds to a question from LaserGuy about Mark. (initial D1 deadline). Post 11: nothing relevant. Post 12: Responds to another LG quetsion. Posts 13-16: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-5: nothing relevant. Post 6: Promises to look over LG tomorrow. Post 7: nothing relevant. Post 8: Rereads LaserGuy. Confused by his posting. Should be nervous about not having a good feel. Post 9: nothing relevant. Post 10: Labels LaserGuy as votable. Posts 11-13: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-2: nothing relevant. Post 3: Responds to LaserGuy defensively over SDK. Post 4: Responds to LaserGuy again, explaining intended information gain. Post 5: LaserGuy is second-scummiest. Posts 6-7: nothing relevant. Post 8: Number two lynch choice is between LG and wam. Posts 9-11: nothing relevant.

D4. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Notes mpolo missed his having LaserGuy as votable previously. Posts 6-8: nothing relevant. Post 9: Jokes LG has started RPing as Madge again. Posts 10-11: nothing relevant.


Links from moody towards BoomFrog:
Spoiler:
D1. Posts 1-2: nothing relevant. Post 3: threetwoone nothing of any depth in early reads. Posts 4-10: nothing relevant. (initial D1 deadline). Posts 11-16: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-8: nothing relevant. Post 9: Explains why he didn't bother rereading threetwoone prior to replacement. Post 10: Labels BoomFrog as unsure/to examine. Post 11: Responds to BF on FB claiming PR. Posts 12-13: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-2: nothing relevant. Post 3: Concerned BoomFrog might be being opportunistic with early vote. Post 4: nothing relevant. Post 5: BoomFrog is fourth towniest. Posts 6-11: nothing relevant.

D4. Posts 1-6: nothing relevant. Post 7: Uncomfortable that mpolo is giving up if BF is scum. Posts 8-9: nothing relevant. Post 10: Responds to BoomFrog, explaining townie read of mpolo. Post 11: Responds to BoomFrog, saying his responses are moot.


Links from moody towards Madge:
Spoiler:
D1. Post 1: nothing relevant. Post 2: Asks wam what he thinks of set including Madge. Post 3: Townie (suspicious of plytho and Mark, responses, snarky comments). Responds to a question from her. Post 4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Asks Madge how she feels about Sabrar caginess. Posts 6-10: nothing relevant. (initial D1 deadline). Post 11-14: nothing relevant. Post 15: Notes Madge desire to lynch his scummiest read. Post 16: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-2: nothing relevant. Post 3: Notes Mark's tunnelling on Madge. Post 4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Madge fruit claim interesting. Posts 6-9: nothing relevant. Post 10: Labels Madge as unsure/to examine. Posts 11-13: nothing relevant.

D3. Post 1: Project for today is to read through Madge (note - not BoomFrog). Posts 2-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Madge is 4th scummiest. Post 6: Rereads Madge. Comfortable with her (mid-range) position, but considers swapping her with wam (i.e. down). Posts 7-10: nothing relevant. Post 11: Asks Madge what we should do if Mark doesn't claim.

D4. Post 1: Non-accusation towards Madge about fruit claims being null tell. Post 2: Thinks scum!Madge could still be confused re. setup, and responds to Madge on fruit vendor claiming. Post 3: Thinks Madge suspicion of him is mild OMGUS. Posts 4-10: nothing relevant. Post 11:


Here's what jumps out to me after reading moody's comments on the three players. First, on LaserGuy, moody is very non-committal, especially D2 (where he doesn't have a good feel of him, but it's apparently enough to put him as votable). By D3, he seems to have doubts about LaserGuy, putting him as one of two possible second-choice lynch suspects. Neither of these points look that great. I do find his defensiveness around the SDK lynch information comments, directly in response to a question by LaserGuy to be less likely to come from a scum buddy, but it certainly doesn't rule out this pairing. By D4, he doesn't seem to care about LaserGuy at all, although to be fair, the same could be said about several others too, all of which is likely just a sign that he's trying to avoid linking himself to scum buddies on the final day.

On BoomFrog, moody, like mpolo, has very little to say on him or threetwoone either D1 or D2. Perhaps particularly concerning was that moody marks BoomFrog as somebody he needed to review on D2, and then never did re-review him. However, by D3, BoomFrog is in the townie-half of moody's reads list, despite him having some concerns and never analysing him. His comment regarding mpolo effectively giving up if BoomFrog is scum doesn't seem like something a scum buddy of both BoomFrog and mpolo would say.

Finally, on Madge, I just don't get a buddy vibe from moody's comments about and towards her. In particular, I don't see moody throwing vague suspicions towards Madge on D4, when there was zero likelihood of her getting lynched without them. Admittedly, there wasn't much higher likelihood with it, but still, I'd have expected more outright accusations of he wanted to distance himself from buddy!Madge.

Overall, that suggests to me, from reading moody's posts alone, BoomFrog is more likely a buddy than LaserGuy than Madge. However, other external points, such as the theoretical hard-core bussing by scum!BoomFrog seems to indicate that BoomFrog is unlikely.

Grand Conclusion: LaserGuy seems to be the most likely team-mate with moody and mpolo. I don't rule out BoomFrog from this analysis, but I think it's somewhat unlikely for other reasons (pre-post edit: and this point is moot, since BoomFrog was town). Madge is also unlikely, in my opinion, due to moody's attitude towards her throughout the game.

Vote: mpolo - I don't see anything changing my opinion on him here. Would also accept a LaserGuy lynch.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby Madge » Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:24 am UTC

Any theories why they killed boomfrog? That's what interests me most at this point.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby mpolo » Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:39 am UTC

I'm also pretty surprised by that kill, as it was for me the biggest question that was open. While a LaserGuy/jimbob/moody team seemed the most likely, I probably could have been convinced of a LaserGuy/BoomFrog/moody team with the right arguments, at least until scum killed him. I currently trust wam and Madge pretty completely, therefore, I have complete clarity that jimbob and LaserGuy have to be scum. Wam is pretty much 100% confirmed, and the various reactions, analysis and general feel from Madge have been clearly townie.

I suppose it really doesn't matter in which order we lynch these two, as far as I am concerned.

Unfortunatley, not everyone is convinced of my towniness, so that I have to try to convince wam and Madge, otherwise the game is lost. (Note to self: playing Sungura's meta is way harder than I ever imagined…)

I think that my feeling on LaserGuy has developed pretty consistently. Throughout the whole game, I've been doing better on getting townie reads than on getting scummy reads. At a certain point it becomes clear who has to be scum, simply by process of elimination. Due to real life situations, I've been fighting to get enough analysis in, and I don't know what value it'S going to have to re-read LaserGuy with a near 100% certainty that he is scum, since there's going to be a lot of bias in my reading at this point.

With BoomFrog, at the point where we were mostly worried about Mark Caniglia, I noted that Mark had a fairly high level of trust for BoomFrog, which seemed to be unmotivated. This had me thinking there was a possible link between the two. After reading BoomFrog in isolation, I came to the conclusion that he was very likely town, which reduced my feeling on Mark so much that I don't think I was voting for him at the end (no time right now to check). That combined with his reaction to wam's fruit vendor claim cemented my view, though I was never 100% on my town reading here.

jimbob is an exceptional player and has been participating well. My case against him is pretty much purely process of elimination. Again, I could try to re-read him, but I'm not sure that I'd get anything but confirmation bias.

Vote: either jimbobmacdoodle or LaserGuy, depending on how the other townies feel about this.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:20 am UTC

Hey guys! Just so you know I'm away on holiday till Tuesday visiting my parents, and probably won't be around too much until then. I'd really REALLY appreciate if you all wouldn't quick lynch me while I'm gone because that would be REALLY BAD! Like, game over, let's go play WoT3 kind of bad.

So it looks like we have jimbob saying mpolo/me are scum, mpolo saying jimbob/me are scum and I'm saying jimbob/mpolo are scum, so we're all in this kind of silly circle and the only voices that really matter are wam/Madge because everything from us is all going to look like wine at this point. So I think it's probably best if wam/Madge just try to make a decision between them. I'm happy to answer questions, but I'm not going to bother posting any cases or analysis at this point unless wam/Madge ask me to, because I don't really see it as being helpful to them for us to cluttering the thread.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:01 am UTC

Madge wrote:Any theories why they killed boomfrog? That's what interests me most at this point.
I've thought about that a bit, and realistically can't come up with a single clear answer, because it descends into some really quickly. One possibility is that you were seeming unwilling to sheep BoomFrog whilst he was alive, so scum might have felt this was the best way to convince you that I'm on their team. Then maybe they could be trying to get wam to doubt his reads, since the obvious reason to leave him alive is because scum believe he'll lynch town, so wam will reconsider his reads but then think, that's what scum want him to do, so won't etc etc. Or maybe they think I'll change my reads for some reason because BoomFrog died. Or finally, maybe mpolo and his buddy just felt that nobody was going to lynch BoomFrog any more than anybody else and just chose him at random. Conclusion: I have no idea why they didn't kill wam, as I at least could possibly have ended up voting BoomFrog, though it's probably quite unlikely.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:41 pm UTC

EVWOP: descends into wine really quickly.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby wam » Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:23 pm UTC

No one is more surprised by my survival than me. I nearly went and read spoilers!

My phone has dies so not going to be able to post as often as normal but will try and keep up.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby Madge » Mon Jul 02, 2018 4:43 am UTC

This is great, me and wam can't really post and yet we're the ones who have to decide.

I can't shake plythos very strong town read of laser guy. Can people please explain short and clear the problems with it?

Also I am not satisfied why scum killed bf. I think that's going to tell us an awful lot... I am not comfortable sheeping him under the circumstances.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby wam » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:34 pm UTC

Madge wrote:This is great, me and wam can't really post and yet we're the ones who have to decide.


Its basically going to boil down to one big post a day from me.

I am sticking with my town read of madge and I can't see that changing.

So that leaves me with mpolo, laserguy and Jimbob.

I have been neutral reading mpolo all game and town reading the other two.

I was still worried about a magnificent scum play by boom so him dying is actually good for me.

I need to go back and look at possible teams.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby mpolo » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:47 pm UTC

I can try to look back on the two scum and find evidence of their scumminess. But not until tomorrow afternoon. A lot of what Madge is asking for would require hypotheticals that don't fit into the Sungura meta. (Hence my grousing in my last post.) I would prefer to lose by not cheating on the meta than to win by cheating…
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:05 pm UTC

Madge wrote:I can't shake plythos very strong town read of laser guy. Can people please explain short and clear the problems with it?
Frankly, I didn't have any problems with it at the time, as I was pretty comfortable with LaserGuy. It's only really by PoE that I have him as scum alongside mpolo. Still, I'll go back and see what I can find.

Aside: I've decided not to bother with any more buddy-analyses, as at this point, I don't see myself changing my opinion of Madge, so LaserGuy and mpolo MUST be scum from my point of view.

Here is plytho's last read of LaserGuy:
plytho wrote:LaserGuy: as I've said before, his Vicarin vote D1 feels very townie to me. He could have easily avoided voting using the roleplay excuse or just voted another lynchable townie with a vote. Breaking the tie D1 towards the vicarin lynch is also townie as SDK is more dangerous to scum than Vicarin. (On the other hand the D2 SDK lynch may have been more likely than the D2 vicarin lynch, so that's scum motivation for that tie breaker).

LaserGuy's opening post D3 opening post is very townie, asking some really solid questions. I especially like his push against Madge.

His latest reads list is solid too.

If LaserGuy is scum he's playing a stellar game because I see nothing but town.
His final ordered list is a few posts later:
plytho wrote:Updated list:

plytho
LaserGuy
jimbob
madge
wam
mpolo
Moody
boomfrog
Mark
So, plytho has LaserGuy as towniest, from what I can tell, mostly due to two points: 1) his Vicarin D1 vote (an eighth different wagon apparently being dangerous for scum to start), and 2) His D3 opening post and solid questioning in it. I'm not sure either point can really be called definitively town - either of those could come from scum. One of the reasons starting yet another wagon is risky is that if it gains momentum, then people might naturally look at the first player to start the wagon. But, from what I remember, there was never any real suspicion on LaserGuy D2 for this, so I think that just indicates it's null. This is LaserGuy's first post D3. Let's look at those questions in a bit more detail:
LaserGuy, to Mark wrote:Now, let's talk. You voted SDK in D2 and said that was your current view. Can you explain why? Which points for scum!SDK did you like? Which points for Town!SDK did you like?

How has your view on Madge changed? You were pushing her pretty aggressively in D1, then just stopped and started voting for Vic/SDK.
These are easy questions to ask as scum, picking on a suspicious player with low content, and digging at him for more.
LaserGuy, towards wam wrote:What influenced your view that led you to believe SDK might be Town after all? Why didn't you pursue this earlier in the day? If you were concerned about this, why wouldn't you make reading SDK a priority to reread?
Again, this is a fairly obvious question to ask, given wam's apparent inconsistency on SDK.
LaserGuy, towards wam wrote:What do you think of the Mark/moody wagons at the end of the day? What's your current read on moody?
These are reasonable questions to ask. Given that moody was scum, you could certainly see this as townie, though it could just be a small attempt to distance.
LaserGuy, towards Madge wrote:It certainly sounds to me like you are saying "plytho's point is good, but SDK's defense feels fine, so it's null over all". If not, how should I be interpreting this?
This is a simple request for clarification, so pretty null to me.
LaserGuy, towards moody wrote:Okay, so at the end of D1, you had SDK up to "slightly townie". You ultimately voted for him D1 for information. Why did you go back to scumreading him D2?

...

Can you explain what you were talking about here? Okay, you were voting for him, but your vote D1 wasn't because of plytho's case.

Why didn't you include SDK in your D2 rereads? What do you think of the Mark/moody wagons at the end of the day? What's your current read on wam?
I think it's possible, given the late suspicion on moody at the end of D2, that scum decided N2 to bus moody, and so LaserGuy here is going about that here. It's also worth noting late on D3 that LaserGuy switched from voting moody to voting Mark, essentially sealing Mark's lynch.

LaserGuy is a good player, capable of asking very solid questions. I haven't looked back, but I fully believe him capable of doing so as scum, not just as town. I therefore don't think these questions should be taken as plytho did, leading him to mark him as top town.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:59 am UTC

Thanks jimbob, I appreciate it.

It looks like then we don't have any real problem players, just people who are scum by elimination and aren't playing as perfectly à we might like. Grrr. But at least it means odds are good...

@wam did you mean anything by your fruit choice last night?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:14 am UTC

@Madge:

It's possible that plytho could have tracked me N2. He had me as a strong scumread D2 and mentioned a couple times that he would try to grill me D3. Instead I jumped from second scummiest to his strongest townread. This might be his crumb:
plytho wrote:If LaserGuy is scum he's playing a stellar game because I see nothing but town.


I don't see anything else that obviously looks like it could be a crumb, but better that you or wam take a look with more impartial eyes.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:18 am UTC

LaserGuy, I don't think plytho reading you as town is a breadcrumb of his N2 result. At the time, he couldn't have known that you weren't a mafia goon, or indeed any other kind of Mafia who just didn't use an action, so a no visit result doesn't suggest you are town. Similarly, a result of you visiting somebody else would be as likely to cause suspicion (because you might be the role cop) as clear you for, e.g. being the fruit vendor. It's possible plytho did one of his tunnels and missed the implications of his result though.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby mpolo » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:52 pm UTC

Here's a reread of Laserguy, starting on page 20:

Spoiler:
Laser reacts with consternation to wam’s vote against Mark, right after he asked what jimbob and plytho thought about the vote, presumably because he had wam as scum at that moment. Wam points out that it is self-preservation. Votes moody, because Mark lynch gives bad vibes. Decides to trust plytho, votes Mark.

Tentatively accepts wam’s claim. Realises one of BoomFrog/jimbob is scum. Comes to final scum-team conclusion. Worried about Boomfrog being around at LYLO, but not buddies with moody. Jimbob’s reads of me are generous, and he stops pushing me on certain things. If jimbob and moody are buddies, he’s been bussing aggressively. Some analyses are awkward because of my limited interactions.

BoomFrog has been more consistent ly against moody. Why do I find LG scummy. Moody doesn’t sound like desperate town. Ready to vote. Considers self a bad LYLO player.

Votes moody. On Holiday. Summarizes situation. Perhaps Plytho tracked LG N2, thus reducing his strong scum read.


LaserGuy is hiding his scumminess pretty well here. A couple of minor things:

1) He flip-flops on the Mark lynch fairly rapidly, claiming to follow plytho in the end.
2) He thinks that jimbob is much more likely my buddy than moody's, and then votes moody, which seems a little weird. He can probably claim to just be following consensus, but it sticks out a little bit.

It is a given that my analysis is going to come back scum here. I remain willing to vote any member of the scum team, to wit, LaserGuy or jimbobmacdoodle.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:18 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:LaserGuy, I don't think plytho reading you as town is a breadcrumb of his N2 result. At the time, he couldn't have known that you weren't a mafia goon, or indeed any other kind of Mafia who just didn't use an action, so a no visit result doesn't suggest you are town. Similarly, a result of you visiting somebody else would be as likely to cause suspicion (because you might be the role cop) as clear you for, e.g. being the fruit vendor. It's possible plytho did one of his tunnels and missed the implications of his result though.


I think he's crumbing his result:
If LaserGuy is scum he's playing a stellar game because I see nothing but town.


With as many VTs as this game has, No result on tracker is much more likely to hit VT than scum, so I don't think it's unreasonable that he would have changed his read on me significantly in light of this.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:15 pm UTC

If it's a crumb that's a good catch. Moody was mafia goon, wasn't he? And we have a rolecop and two goons this set-up?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:18 pm UTC

Rolecop, goon, strongman.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby mpolo » Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:20 am UTC

Of course a strongman would likely not have carried out the kill on night two, as they knew that there was an even-night tracker. (Since fruit had been claimed on D2, mafia knew the exact setup at that moment.)
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:11 am UTC

mpolo wrote:Of course a strongman would likely not have carried out the kill on night two, as they knew that there was an even-night tracker. (Since fruit had been claimed on D2, mafia knew the exact setup at that moment.)
Hmmm... Do you think moody would have performed the kill N2? Who do you think would have done out of LaserGuy and I if not? Why?

I think it's possible that it's a crumb, I just don't think it implies town!LaserGuy. I also don't think I agree with the strategy mpolo posted. If scum role-copped freezeblade N1 (as would be implied by his death N2), then they would have known that they could strongman kill freezeblade, with no additional use for the strongman, so they effectively become a goon. If they hadn't, they might have guessed he was anyway for reasons I previously outlined.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby mpolo » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:16 am UTC

I didn't even think of the possibility that the rolecop found freezeblade N1. If that were the case, I could see the strongman performing the kill (all or nothing), but the rolecop withholding his action, knowing that finding the fruit vendor is far from necessary, thus eluding the tracker.

So, if scum rolecopped freezeblade, I think LaserGuy is the rolecop and withheld his action N2. If scum did not have a rolecop on freezeblade, then LaserGuy is the strongman, who chose to allow another member of the mafia to carry out the kill on N2.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby Madge » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:13 am UTC

Wam, what do you think? I don't want to vote laser guy first due to the possible crumb. Who is your target today?

On the taxi to Krabi airport now! Will be in Bangkok for bedtime. Will try to get another phone post in.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby wam » Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:15 pm UTC

Sorry watching football last night!

Im thinking moody but thats due to my strong town read on both laser and jimbob (at least one of which is wrong). I want to go back and look at possible links but I wont have time till tomorrow.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby bessie » Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:28 pm UTC

The small spontaneous party in Diemo’s back yard was enjoying the warm spring air. Madge was especially pleased with the unexpected appearance of several old friends. The conversation was lively as they celebrated Madge’s good fortune.

jimbobmacdoodle: So Madge, tell us more about the book. Where do you get your ideas? Do you draw upon real life experiences and people you know in your writing?
Madge: I do occasionally use people I know as inspiration for characters I create.
LaserGuy: Hmm, but not always?
Madge: Yep, sometimes I completely make them up!
bessie: Like that insane quality engineer character? We don’t know anyone in real life that’s mentally unstable, except maybe Sabrar.
wam: [sarcastically] Yeah I wonder where that idea came from.
Dog: Grrr...
mpolo: Diemo, I think I hear your doorbell.

[Diemo gets up to answer the door]

bessie: [hopefully] BoomFrog?
Diemo: [returning] No it’s just UPS. Does anyone need a refill?
LaserGuy: bessie, BoomFrog’s not coming. We already discussed this. He’s in the hospital CCU unit.
mpolo: It’s odd, like life is imitating that mafia game. moody being scum in the game and all.
Madge: Well if this game really reflects life, it means that someone else in this group is scum too.
jimbobmacdoodle: But who? Maybe we should vote.
Diemo: Sure, but everyone have another drink first.


Official Votals:

None

Not Voting (5) : jimbobmacdoodle, LaserGuy, Madge, mpolo, wam

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to hammer.

Deadline is Saturday (exact time TBD).



(I'll ask Diemo to set a time.)

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby mpolo » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:13 pm UTC

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle

I am willing to change to LaserGuy. Since both of them are scum, I have no fear of scum forcing an early lynch here.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:24 pm UTC

wam wrote:Im thinking moody but thats due to my strong town read on both laser and jimbob (at least one of which is wrong). I want to go back and look at possible links but I wont have time till tomorrow.
I assume you meant mpolo?
mpolo wrote:Vote: jimbobmacdoodle
:roll:

I'm not expecting to be quick-hammered. I'm about 99% certain mpolo is scum and he's just hoping the vote will encourage town to join him.

I don't think I've got anything else to say, and I will follow the collective decision by wam and Madge (as long as it doesn't involve voting me, since that would be bad).

Madge, wam, is there anything I can say that would make you more likely to vote either of the other two?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Postby Madge » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:06 am UTC

Mpolo sudden votre is weird. It's like scum suddenly realised that town wouldn't be afraid of quick hammer in this situation. But why bother with the vote at all? I don't get it.

I am happy to vote mpolo too. Jimbob also, but I think I prefer mpolo.

Real quick, there's no chance wam is fake fruit vendor somehow? What fruit did you give me last night?
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