Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N5)

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BoomFrog
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:50 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: Most importantly, this was an excuse to act on my hidden knowledge that there were 2-3 town roleblockers and we had a very high chance of stopping the kill and preserving the cop(s).


You thought that Town would have three roleblockers and scum wouldn't have a strongman? :|
Well, I thought balance was based on 2 roleblockers, but yeah that's a good point. I didn't think it through. Although if I had I'd have guessed strongman was 2-shot or something like that, not an always on option. So I don't think that really changes my plan.

Madge was third in your D1 lynch pool. If you thought she was an absorber D1, why weren't you more concerned about giving scum!her your power?
Well I was really excited to get an extra cop N1 which I thought was what was going to happen when Vic targeted madge. If she had gotten cop powers then avoided voting so she could roleblock it would have looked really obvious. Although, really I didn't think about it farther then I wanted to "win" the night action game and get a second cop.

BoomFrog wrote:Also, I knew the RBer had to be Heauy or mpolo both of whom I had a town read on.


Why roleblock heury N2 then if you had him as Town? Why not me? Or protect Madge?
I thought I'd explained this. I targeted Heauy on the assumption that wam was town. If wam was scum, Vic was clearly his partner and we were in a very good position so I wanted to hedge my bets.

I believe your claim that you are mediator. I just don't think it implies that you are Town. Crossover had a mafia doctor despite Town having basically no killing powers, so I'm somewhat disabused of the notion that means anything.
There was a second killing faction in crossover. But yeah, if I'm cult leader doctor can make sense. Godfather doctor doesn't make sense when there are no other kills and wam and vic had scummy powers.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:54 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I haven't it analized it yet what I noticed however is that you make this read and defend it twice. Early D4 you realize after I point it out that me being CL does not make sense and you even go so far as saying you don't think there's recruitment.
Now suddenly we're back to you pushing me as CL. What's up with that?

You could be odd-night recruiter only which would have explained the no action N2. But yeah, forgot about you not recruiting bessie N3. So yeah, sabrar!CL still doesn't make sense. I'm grasping at straws. No scenario fits the evidence. (except me being a cult leader which is why I'm so surprised you have not reached that conclusion.)
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:08 pm UTC

I believe that if Vicarin would have truly role-copped you as CL then he would have played D3 differently. Therefore there is no 'evidence' and you being CL requires a shot-in-the-dark lucky guess from him. Plus as I've already explained if we have CL then it's most likely Mark or Madge. Unless you're GF but then Vicarin didn't claim it so we're back to him lying about it again.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:28 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:There was a second killing faction in crossover.


The other faction didn't have a kill. They had a one-shot recruit, but that was it.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I believe that if Vicarin would have truly role-copped you as CL then he would have played D3 differently. Therefore there is no 'evidence' and you being CL requires a shot-in-the-dark lucky guess from him. Plus as I've already explained if we have CL then it's most likely Mark or Madge. Unless you're GF but then Vicarin didn't claim it so we're back to him lying about it again.

Assume Vic never roleclopped me and doesn't know my role. Him lying about knowing I'm CL doesn't prove I'm not CL. I could be GF, mediator CL. There is little evidence against it and some supporting it (I pushed NL D2). I could even be just GF CL if I recruited Madge N1 and she's a good faker. (Btw do you think she actually has mediator powers? Why?)
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:58 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:There was a second killing faction in crossover.


The other faction didn't have a kill. They had a one-shot recruit, but that was it.

Moody had a kill power but didn't get to use it since he was the D1 lynch. It was 1-shot I think though, so yeah, fair enough.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:09 pm UTC

I thought at the end of D1 (before either of you could have recruited the other (unless N0 recruit but that's unlikely)) that you could be Mediator and that Madge was Absorber. So yeah, I think that Madge has Mediator-power.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:10 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I thought at the end of D1 (before either of you could have recruited the other (unless N0 recruit but that's unlikely)) that you could be Mediator and that Madge was Absorber. So yeah, I think that Madge has Mediator-power.

But I'm so tricky. I could have faked the voting restriction. Jailkeeper and mediator in the same setup?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:12 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Flavor theory about cult: maybe the cult leader is a Foresaken who can only recruit people who are secretly Black Ajah. Since we had one flip of a secretly Black Sister. That would put me in a certain danger of recruitment, so I don't like my theory, but it would balance a cult for the small game somewhat.

If that theory were true then why did you feel the need to advise the cult that they could recruit you?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:15 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:You are also a member of the Black Ajah, and although your loyalty to them is not important to the mission at this time, those who pry deeply into you will see you to not be truly loyal to the Aes Sedai’s cause.

I don't think the black Ajah are an anti-town faction.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Madge » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:54 am UTC

I'm wary voting boomfrog out of fear.

I think Mark is our most likely culprit. He's being quiet and standing back and letting us tear each other apart, undergoing no scrutiny.

If I didn't fear losing my doc power last night, I'd vote for him right now.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:48 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Jailkeeper and mediator in the same setup?
They fulfill different roles.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:00 am UTC

Quick replies, I worked late.

LaserGuy wrote:Asking for people to target you is all WIFOM, so I don't really put any particular weight on that point on way or the other.
+1, etc. Sabrar also asked to be targeted.

LaserGuy wrote:
bessie wrote:Also in my mind is that at the end of D2, Vicarin doesn’t make a self preservation vote and move from me to wam. Is he hoping someone else will move to me? (Sabrar, heury, BoomFrog)

FWIW, I think the end of day sequence pretty conclusively points to a Vic/wam team. If they weren't aligned, I don't see why Vic wouldn't have pushed the lynch for wam, or wam for Vic. More interesting to me leading up to the end of day is the discussion around No Lynch.
Yes, that was one of things I was considering with the different points in my post, I was trying to show my thought process. Vicarin didn’t move to wam implies they are quite likely teammates. When Vicarin signed off, the three people listed are the ones that I think he may have hoped would move to wam. I know I’m not explaining this well, it’s the feeling I got reading through page 16ish.

LaserGuy I am thinking about your reply to me re heury’s death.

mpolo wrote:Flavor theory about cult: maybe the cult leader is a Foresaken who can only recruit people who are secretly Black Ajah. Since we had one flip of a secretly Black Sister. That would put me in a certain danger of recruitment, so I don't like my theory, but it would balance a cult for the small game somewhat.
Ok I’m just going to say it. I don’t think we have a cult. I think it’s more likely mafia had a traitor/supporter that was recruitable. Now how about some reads?


LaserGuy wrote:I believe your claim that you are mediator. I just don't think it implies that you are Town. Crossover had a mafia doctor despite Town having basically no killing powers, so I'm somewhat disabused of the notion that means anything.
Wild random thought, prompted by Crossover, wasn’t Red Ryu compulsive? Compulsive mafia mediator makes a lot more sense, especially as a negative utility to balance a team of three, and the weak town powers (like, seriously, I’m macho and there’s a miller, and possibly a GF?).

BoomFrog wrote:Moody had a kill power but didn't get to use it since he was the D1 lynch. It was 1-shot I think though, so yeah, fair enough.
moody didn’t have a kill, not sure where you got that from, since YOLOSWAG never posted the role pms. I have moody’s role pm in the QT chat.


Agree with Madge that Mark needs to post. Mark, I know you’re busy with your new school and all. Try to read through D4, write down whatever thoughts you have, and post it. You don’t need to create a well-organized work of art, but we need something from you.

Back in a bit.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:07 am UTC

moody's role-pm from Crossover, Death Blossom was a 1-shot kill
Spoiler:
Wraith Form:You cannot be affected by direct abilities during the Night phase, including Night Kills. Global abilities (e.g., everyone is a double voter or everyone takes 2 less to lynch) still affect you as normal.

Death Blossom

This ability can only be used once.

During the Night phase, choose a player. That player will be killed at the very end of the Night phase (they will use their abilities). While this may seem a disadvantage, know that your killing ability allows for players to potentially use up their limited abilities or one-shot bulletproofs prior to you hitting them – you’re patient. Should this ability be blocked or unsuccessful in any way (e.g., roleblock, immune to Night Action, bulletproof) you retain your usage of this ability.

This ability must be used successfully prior to Night 3, or you will lose this ability.

Gift From Sombra: Sombra has provided you with intel on some of the other participants. The following information is mod-confirmed:

- Snake is in this game. Visiting Snake during the Night phase will make a player lose their ability to vote the following day phase.
- There are several abilities that will modify how Day voting phases will work.
- Simea is in this game. Simea can temporarily negate GLaDOS' bomb effect...and your Wraith Form.
- There is another mafia faction with a Night Kill ability. No one else knows this.
Also Red Ryu wasn't compulsive but he left notes that were visible once the targeted player died so he couldn't really false-claim his targets.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:29 am UTC

Um, this is interesting, I just checked your mafia chat remembering vaguely that BoomFrog investigated moody, and they're different all right. Probably best to drop this.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:13 am UTC

Mark_Cangila has been mod-prodded.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Madge » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:12 am UTC

vote: mark

Note that this is in italics and not a "real" vote. I am very wary of letting him live by skating by. It's something scum has done successfully too many times.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:11 pm UTC

If the mafia could recruit someone they would have tried to recruit mpolo. Do you think their recruit ability is factional and separate from killing?

If they have a supporter who is now kill less, that will become obvious in a few days and we can will at our leasure (and JimBob is a bad planner which I think we know is false.)

@Bessie if there is a CL who are your top guesses?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:23 pm UTC

I wish real Sabrar were here to help me figure this out instead of decoy Sabrar.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:29 pm UTC

Hey, I was 100% fully pro-town up until bessie outed me anyway and I no longer had to pretend. :D

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:44 pm UTC

Madge wrote:I'm wary voting boomfrog out of fear.
Why? Do you have a reason, other than the possibility of a mislynch?

BoomFrog wrote:If the mafia could recruit someone they would have tried to recruit mpolo. Do you think their recruit ability is factional and separate from killing?
Was this for me? Yes factional, thinking about separate. It would depend on if there was a supporter or if there was an open recruit.

BoomFrog wrote: @Bessie if there is a CL who are your top guesses?
I just am not seeing how we have a cult. I guess I’m being stubborn about my setup spec, which is totally unlike me. For you, I will think about it though. To start with, not Sabrar and not LaserGuy.

Zebra wrote:Hey, I was 100% fully pro-town up until bessie outed me anyway and I no longer had to pretend. :D
I do not believe this. There is no way 100% pro-town you ended up in the wrong fish bowl. And don’t blame it on bad reads.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:56 pm UTC

Okay, 99%. :P

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:02 pm UTC

Votals:

BoomFrog (1): LaserGuy

Not Voting: Mark_Cangila, Sabrar, Madge, mpolo, BoomFrog, bessie

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is 21:00 UTC, Wednesday, 22nd August, approximate 28 hours from now. Deadline timer.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:40 pm UTC

Everyone who is participating seems mostly townie (besides obviously sabrar). Ignoring powers mpolo and Mark are the two most likely scum (besides me). I believe that they really have the powers they claim. My 95% town read on mark was based on the logic of 95% sure he is actually watcher and 100% sure actual watcher means town. Considering the facts I think we can all agree that most likely the last scum has a somewhat townie power. Based on just powers the top candidates for scum are Madge and Sabrar, but taking together tone and powers I think Mark is the most likely. I kinda wish Madge and I were not coming to the same conclusions since LaserGuy will see that as more coordination...

Second choice is probably Sabrar then Madge just for having a scummy power or LaserGuy for his last minute attack on me D3 (I agree with the attack, just the timing still feels scummy). Still 3 watcher type powers and 3 protective powers (counting sabrars bulletproof) plus a cop and a backup feels right. Maybe we should just lynch Madge to see...
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:32 pm UTC

@Mark: Can you explain your thoughts on why your result on Vic D2 meant he was scum?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby mpolo » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:02 pm UTC

Yeah, I realized my possible Miller claim would have made me a recruit target by my theory. So that is probably not the case, unless it's a one-shot thing.

Town
Bessie
LaserGuy

Indie
Sabrar

Scummy
Madge (power)
Mark (lurky)
Boomfrog (possible godfather)

I can jail either Madge or Mark tonight, but not Boomfrog. So my gut is to vote for Boomfrog.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:25 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Yeah, I realized my possible Miller claim would have made me a recruit target by my theory. So that is probably not the case, unless it's a one-shot thing.

Town
Bessie
LaserGuy

Indie
Sabrar

Scummy
Madge (power)
Mark (lurky)
Boomfrog (possible godfather)

I can jail either Madge or Mark tonight, but not Boomfrog. So my gut is to vote for Boomfrog.

Do you think I am 3rd mafia or Cult leader?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:27 pm UTC

I don't think he is scum unless he is Mark's recruit, but:

vote LaserGuy

I'd appreciate it if no one else votes (but do be on at deadline to prevent shenanigans.) That way I can get my secondary win from having a tied vote. I'll still be lynched by the tiebreaker.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:28 pm UTC

EBWOP: I mean, I guess I don't mind if people are willing to vote for someone else... :p Which is pretty much just bessie.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:29 pm UTC

Double EBWOP: I mean bessie is the only one likely to have a significant effect on the lynch at this point. Not that we should vote for her.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:46 pm UTC

That vote is weird and I need to think about it some more.

@Madge: Can you claim the mechanics of your power in full?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:46 pm UTC

Hmm....

Unvote
Vote: Madge

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:51 am UTC

Back and reading through D4 now. My logic on the D2 Vic thing was that I doubted scum would not target a town cop, and scum evidently didn't target him. I have a theory. What if the block on the name of the faction is added when someone is recruited to the cult. If that is true and Madge is cult leader, Bessie could be cult. I also think we could be in 7-2-1-1 with a cult and a survivor. I targeted BF because I thought he was most scummy. It also allowed me to check for him being roleblocked, and if the people supposed to target him did target him. In hindsight I would have targeted Laserguy maybe. I feel like the cult leader must have been roleblocked at some point. They would have otherwise have gotten 3 recruits, and, due to lynches and nk, would control the votals. Laserguy and BF are the only ones who have definitively been blocked I believe.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:10 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I'd appreciate it if no one else votes (but do be on at deadline to prevent shenanigans.) That way I can get my secondary win from having a tied vote. I'll still be lynched by the tiebreaker.


Took me a moment to figure this out. Please BoomFrog, explain to me, if you are Town and believe there is a cult in this game, why you are allowing yourself to be lynched in LYLO. If you are Town and are lynched, game is over, cult wins, except in the very specific scenario that cult leader has somehow managed to fail to recruit every single night.

The only person who wants to be lynched right now is cult recruit. If we are at 4-2-1, or, equivalently, 4-3, then lynching cult recruit puts us at 4-2. But after recruit, we move to 3-3 or 3-2-1 with survivor and cult wins. The only way Town can win right now is by lynching cult leader.

We have to lynch Madge.

Here's what I think happened:

Madge is cult leader. She tried to recruit Vicarin N1 under cover of passing the ter'angrael. The recruit failed because he was mafia (or maybe it didn't; doesn't really matter). She gained BoomFrog's power and N2 recruited BoomFrog himself. Now that she has a townie power, she can safely target whomever she was as Doc (in this case bessie), and if she's observed she can safely claim that, even if she's actually recruiting. N3, she covered by sending doc to me, and presumably recruited Sabrar. It's possible that this failed owing to Sabrar being survivor (it's actually also possible that Sabrar was Town and bessie's cop procs after recruit); doesn't really matter since he is effectively cult as either survivor or recruit.

There is a smaller, but possible chance that Sabrar is cult leader and BoomFrog is still cultist. We can resolve this safely by jailing him tonight.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:03 am UTC

mpolo has claimed that he can only jail any player once. So if mpolo is town he can’t jail LaserGuy, Sabrar, BoomFrog.

Have you considered that perhaps there is a cult leader that recruits by being targeted? No, never mind, moody would have been recruited N0. Why couldn’t Madge have recruited BoomFrog N1, me N2, and you N3 (unless she was expecting me to be killed N2)? Why recruit Sabrar and not mpolo?

There is no way town!Sabrar was in scummy Vicarin’s fish bowl at the end of D2.

Vote: Madge

I'm still thinking about your post, but I wanted to get my vote out there because of the tied votals thing, and if you get to two votes first then you could be lynched if the votes are spread out.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:08 am UTC

bessie wrote:mpolo has claimed that he can only jail any player once. So if mpolo is town he can’t jail LaserGuy, Sabrar, BoomFrog.

Have you considered that perhaps there is a cult leader that recruits by being targeted? No, never mind, moody would have been recruited N0. Why couldn’t Madge have recruited BoomFrog N1, me N2, and you N3 (unless she was expecting me to be killed N2)? Why recruit Sabrar and not mpolo?


I am ignoring circumstances under which the game would already be over. If we are at 3-3-1, cult won as soon as Sabrar claimed. You, me, and Madge cannot be cult because the game would be over. Also, we cannot all be cult because BoomFrog must be cult or he is playing against his wincon.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:09 am UTC

I was actually toying with the idea that cult recruited by passing the ter'angrael. I can't specifically rule this scenario out, beyond that BoomFrog would not be allowing himself to be lynched in that case since even lynching one of his recruits would let him win.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:25 am UTC

unvote

I'm not "letting" myself be lynched, but if Bessie weren't convinced I'm town then I'm going to be lynched, so there wasn't much else to say.

ter'agreal was part of Moody's 2ndary win con, I think the setup was finalized then 2ndarys were added on randomly, so I doubt any core mechanics are based on 2ndary mechanics.

I agree (if there is a cult) the N1 recruit probably failed because it targeted Vic.

Maybe we were lucky and the N3 recruit targeted heauy. Not enough people are acting suspiciously.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:31 am UTC

I'm going to roleblock Mark or mpolo, probably mark. But I'm open to suggestions. If I'm scum I'll ignore you so assume I'm town.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:24 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I'm not "letting" myself be lynched, but if Bessie weren't convinced I'm town then I'm going to be lynched, so there wasn't much else to say.


I have too much respect for your abilities to believe this.

Maybe we were lucky and the N3 recruit targeted heauy. Not enough people are acting suspiciously.


Well that would be tricky with him being dead and all. Even if there are only two cultists, lynching Town is still a loss condition at the moment unless one of the cultists is Sabrar.

You should roleblock Sabrar.


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