Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N5)

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Sabrar
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:37 am UTC

bessie wrote:No. If you are survivor, your best chance would be to find and lynch the last remaining scum, and the game ends today.
This is of course assuming that people would believe me which they totally don't.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby bessie » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:37 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:No. If you are survivor, your best chance would be to find and lynch the last remaining scum, and the game ends today.
This is of course assuming that people would believe me which they totally don't.

Ok, let me put it this way. What do you have to lose by helping us out? You're not a NK target.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby mpolo » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:44 pm UTC

I'm sorry for my level of content. There is not a lot of time in vacation. Tomorrow I am traveling home, though...

I am reasonably sure about bessie and LaserGuy. Boomfrog would have to be a godfather. Mark_Caniglia has had a lot of things that seem more likely for town than for scum. Madge has a scummy power but townie content. Sabrar is non-town, but claims true indie.

And I have no investigative ability, leaving me very unclear what to do.
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Sabrar
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:04 pm UTC

bessie wrote:What do you have to lose by helping us out?
I don't have the drive. I'll take a look tonight.

@mpolo: Madge is already dead. You even voted for her...

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:25 pm UTC

bessie wrote:BoomFrog, does Sabrar’s description of the ter’angreal match yours?

Yes.

BoomFrog wrote:'ve been suspicious of mpolo being overly willing to go with whatever lynch others suggest without scrutiny. Especially considering we thought we were at MYLO/LYLO and any "general consensus" is likely to be scum led.
Well the Madge lynch was pretty much me and LaserGuy led. Sorry Madge.


My setup theories in a bit. Let me add and absorb today’s claims.

But you two had well considered reasons. But yeah, pretty much everyone (but Sabrar) is playing exactly how I would expect them to as town under the circumstances.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:36 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:But yeah, pretty much everyone (but Sabrar) is playing exactly how I would expect them to as town under the circumstances.
Mark had 2 posts today. That's what you expect from town?

Vote: BoomFrog

This has been my suspicion ever since D3, LaserGuy had a good case but for some reason he completely abandoned it.
Will revisit tonight.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby mpolo » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:03 pm UTC

Wait, we ended up lynching Madge. That's one less suspect. :|
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:45 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Wait, we ended up lynching Madge. That's one less suspect. :|

Who did you think we lynched? What did you think the situation was when you voted Madge?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:46 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:But yeah, pretty much everyone (but Sabrar) is playing exactly how I would expect them to as town under the circumstances.
Mark had 2 posts today. That's what you expect from town?

Vote: BoomFrog

This has been my suspicion ever since D3, LaserGuy had a good case but for some reason he completely abandoned it.
Will revisit tonight.

Doesn't Mark have some RL school stuff going on?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:12 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:But yeah, pretty much everyone (but Sabrar) is playing exactly how I would expect them to as town under the circumstances.
Mark had 2 posts today. That's what you expect from town?

Vote: BoomFrog

This has been my suspicion ever since D3, LaserGuy had a good case but for some reason he completely abandoned it.
Will revisit tonight.


I was on BoomFrog for all of D4. The only reason that I switched off of him at the end of day was when I became convinced that he was a recruit trying to protect his leader to secure a win.

Today we have a Town result from the cop on him, and there is still no kill which means he is probably not in Vicarin faction.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:36 pm UTC

Or he could have tried to kill Mark, afraid of the watcher. And GF would still fit the third scum or a lone indie.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:49 pm UTC

I watched Mark last night and the only person who visited him was the jailer.

I haven't ruled out GF. I've actually already outlined a plan for how we can confirm the existence of a GF, in fact.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:56 pm UTC

Oh yeah, I forgot about your result. However the plan as described needs a second conf-town because bessie alone can't lynch in a 1-1 situation.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:06 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Or he could have tried to kill Mark, afraid of the watcher. And GF would still fit the third scum or a lone indie.

Also, this is a ridiculous theory since it was obvious mpolo would jail the last person he could still jail besides Bessie. You're not even trying...
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:18 pm UTC

I've already said that I don't think there is any kill left, I just listed out possibilities.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:08 pm UTC

Nobody is even trying to look for scum except bessie. If I wanted to help Town I would suggest to lynch BoomFrog next, but since Town wants me dead I'm going to suggest you lynch Mark tomorrow because you will kick yourself if you lose to such a passive scum-play.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:29 pm UTC

I doubt a kill exists, based on how many nights have gone by without a killing. If a kill exists, it is in a townie player, who would be content to let town kill itself. Those would be Bessie and/or LG. I'm mildly suspicious of both as an SK.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby mpolo » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:08 pm UTC

@Boomfrog; I want so far as to think we had lynched anyone--vacation posting from the phone is a little surreal for me, and I am having trouble keeping up with what is going on.

It occurred to me that there might be no traitor -- we would have to no-lynch to win. But I don't really believe this idea. Primarily for the flavor reason that there were an awful lot of hidden enemies in the camp in the book. I still think our enemy is one of the Forsaken, and that person is probably hidden by a very good alibi, and possibly a godfather as well. Which has me looking at Boomfrog again.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:11 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I've already said that I don't think there is any kill left, I just listed out possibilities.

How does that jive with your theory that I'm the 3rd mafia?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:17 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:@Boomfrog; I want so far as to think we had lynched anyone--vacation posting from the phone is a little surreal for me, and I am having trouble keeping up with what is going on.

It occurred to me that there might be no traitor -- we would have to no-lynch to win. But I don't really believe this idea. Primarily for the flavor reason that there were an awful lot of hidden enemies in the camp in the book. I still think our enemy is one of the Forsaken, and that person is probably hidden by a very good alibi, and possibly a godfather as well. Which has me looking at Boomfrog again.


jimbob already indicated that we need to eliminate all threats to Town to win. I don't think we can NL to win.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:25 pm UTC

Votals:

Sabrar (1): bessie
BoomFrog (1): Sabrar

Not voting: BoomFrog, LaserGuy, Mark_Cangila, mpolo

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline will be Wednesday 29th August, 7pm UTC, a little over 21.5 hours from now. Deadline timer.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:39 am UTC

What bothers me about this situation is I actually believe Sabrar's claim is like 90% likely to be true. He definitely isn't in Vic/wam faction and this doesn't really feel like his scum game... and I'm struggling to think of a solo indy role that fits with what we've seen of him. His flavor claim is also consistent with his role and I suspect is real. Bleh.

Mechanically, I think lynching Sabrar is the safest play for us, but my heart says we should lynch BoomFrog.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:12 am UTC


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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:13 am UTC

EBWOP: damn, preview showed it correctly but I guess it doesn't work?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:18 am UTC

bessie, please tell me if you think this is a bad idea and I'll switch.

Vote: Boom

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:31 am UTC

@Mark, mpolo: even if you don't have too much time to review everything, you should really place a vote.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:33 am UTC

Votals:

Sabrar (1): bessie
BoomFrog (2): Sabrar, LaserGuy

Not voting: BoomFrog, Mark_Cangila, mpolo

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline will be Wednesday 29th August, 7pm UTC, a little under 7.5 hours from now. Deadline timer.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:18 pm UTC

I don't like Sabrar's claim, and there is no way he is town.
Vote: Sabrar

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:19 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:bessie, please tell me if you think this is a bad idea and I'll switch.

Vote: Boom

If I'm some sort of scum I almost certainly need to control the majority vote to win and don't have a kill or unrestricted recruit. Mechanically, there is almost no situation where lynching me first then Sabrar is better then Sabrar first then me.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby bessie » Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:44 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote: Doesn't Mark have some RL school stuff going on?
Mark just started ninth grade. So there’s school, and everything else that goes along with just starting ninth grade.

LaserGuy wrote:Mechanically, I think lynching Sabrar is the safest play for us, but my heart says we should lynch BoomFrog.
+1, QFT... :?

LaserGuy wrote:bessie, please tell me if you think this is a bad idea and I'll switch.
I was hoping you would tell me what to do. I’m all tunneled out.

All right, I’m going to assume I’m a sane town cop. And I’m going to guess that we do not have a cult.

mpolo is on vacation without a computer, and he’s too focused on flavor, which is unfortunate because town!mpolo would have probably figured out the game by now. If he’s mafia we’ll get him by PoE, if he’s cult leader he will probably win.

If Mark is scum, my guess is he was mafia traitor that was unaware that he was mafia, and was converted upon Vicarin’s death. Mark’s early content feels right. His D4 and D5 content does not, but it’s a judgment call that needs to take in to account RL, and a gut read (and I am admittedly bad at gut reads).

BoomFrog is BoomFrog, and unfortunately scummy content is NAI for him. His content this game was so bizarre that I would vote for him, but that would make him GF. In an 11 player game, is it balanced to have a 3 member mafia with GF, especially when there was a miller and the cop is macho (and not even considering the other powers that have flipped)? My little puppy brain says no.

Sabrar is the safe lynch. He’s not town. He’s not vested in helping town win. I tried all weekend to draw real Sabrar in to the game (well really I’ve been trying most of the game without success). What concerns me is exactly what I said in this post. If Sabrar is neutral survivor, there must be at least one anti-town player alive, or the game would be over. And likely only one. It is in neutral-survivor-Sabrar’s best interest to find and lynch the scum that from his point of view must exist. His excuse is that he doesn’t know what to look for. This doesn’t feel right. Look at any of Sabrar’s games; scum-hunting Sabrar can find content, he can generate content, he would find the scum that he knows is out there. I feel he knows there is no scum to find.

Sabrar, I don’t expect you to believe me, but I tried my best to keep you alive. I was trying to hit scum last night, not clear town, that’s why I copped BoomFrog. Here was my reasoning on N4:
1. BoomFrog’s scummy, and would most likely be the D5 lynch regardless of Madge’s flip. And because of wam’s redirect power, my N1 cop doesn’t clear him. But a N4 cop would be definitive (in a sense that it is almost certain that BoomFrog was copped and I am not redirected).
2. mpolo most likely did not jail me, as protection it would be worthless unless he told me ahead of time. If he blocked me it would have betrayed that mpolo was worried about being copped.
3. Mark is the only other person mpolo can jail, so copping Mark should be worthless.

LaserGuy, I'll move my vote if you want me to. As I said on D4, with the current numbers, right or wrong town needs to vote together, or scum can control the vote. But make it fast as I need to leave for work. I'll try to check back before deadline but I can't guarantee it.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:05 pm UTC

@Bessie: If you do decide to vote me i'd appreciate it if you only unvote. If you do I'll make sure I'm lynched, but I want to go out on a tie vote.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:07 pm UTC

@mpolo same deal. If you intend to vote for me please just declare it but don't actually vote. Also I'd like to hear your reasons for voting me over sabrier who is definitely anti-town.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:10 pm UTC

@Laserguy I understand my current behavior is confusing to you. I'm doing it because I believe I'll be lynched and the game will still not be over and then you can finish Sabrar and we can win and I would like to get my secondary win on my way out.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:12 pm UTC

@ Mark: why do you not find me suspicious? You really do need to post more or you will be lynched after me and Sabrar.

@Sabrar: *tips hat*
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby mpolo » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:28 pm UTC

Actually, it occurred to me that Sabrar could be completely truthful and still be the "threat"to town. I think he may be a survivor who wins if he survives, but town loses.

Vote: Sabrar
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:37 pm UTC

bessie wrote:LaserGuy, I'll move my vote if you want me to. As I said on D4, with the current numbers, right or wrong town needs to vote together, or scum can control the vote. But make it fast as I need to leave for work. I'll try to check back before deadline but I can't guarantee it.


Looks like Sabrar is going to happen so I'm fine letting it go ahead and see what we end up with. If scum can win off of a survivor lynch at this point they were probably going to win anyway. I'm going to leave my vote as-is and BoomFrog can get his secondary by self-voting if he wants to risk it.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:16 pm UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:I don't like Sabrar's claim, and there is no way he is town.
The fact that I'm not town has been established a long time ago and was never in question. Why bring it up with such emphasis? Also it would be really helpful if you could explain what exactly you don't like about my claim, instead of just throwing it out there.

mpolo wrote:Actually, it occurred to me that Sabrar could be completely truthful and still be the "threat"to town. I think he may be a survivor who wins if he survives, but town loses.
How do you think this would work? Town has to lynch a specific player before lynching all other scum otherwise they lose? That's so bastardy i can't even...

I'm going to be really sad if I get lynched because of 'arguments' like these especially when they appear in the last few hours and the players aree not there to even argue about it...

BoomFrog wrote:Mechanically, there is almost no situation where lynching me first then Sabrar is better then Sabrar first then me.
That is as false as your previous reasoning. Arsonist is just one example.

BoomFrog wrote:@Sabrar: *tips hat*
Right back at you. If town lynches me today I'll be rooting for you.

bessie wrote:Sabrar, I don’t expect you to believe me, but I tried my best to keep you alive.
Why would I not believe you? You're the most sure townie that there is.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:39 pm UTC

Votals:

Sabrar (3): bessie, Mark_Cangila, mpolo
BoomFrog (2): Sabrar, LaserGuy

Not voting: BoomFrog

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline will be Wednesday 29th August, 7pm UTC, a little under 1.5 hours from now. Deadline timer.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:55 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
bessie wrote:LaserGuy, I'll move my vote if you want me to. As I said on D4, with the current numbers, right or wrong town needs to vote together, or scum can control the vote. But make it fast as I need to leave for work. I'll try to check back before deadline but I can't guarantee it.


Looks like Sabrar is going to happen so I'm fine letting it go ahead and see what we end up with. If scum can win off of a survivor lynch at this point they were probably going to win anyway. I'm going to leave my vote as-is and BoomFrog can get his secondary by self-voting if he wants to risk it.

I won't be voting, there is a small chance that roleblocking Mark or mpolo will make a difference in the outcome for us. They are both still acting suspiciously. (Was I not right several game days ago when I said the were the most likely by PoE?)

Also, that would be 3 vs 3 and result in a no Lynch.

I'd love it if you unvoted then revoted, then someone else unvoted Sabrar.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D5)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:00 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Mechanically, there is almost no situation where lynching me first then Sabrar is better then Sabrar first then me.
That is as false as your previous reasoning. Arsonist is just one example.

Arsonist is pretty implausible with no hint in the doctor roles about them and no powers to detect or cure dousing. And I'd have had the chance to douse 2 people and ignite by now so the game would be over if I was an Arsonist. Any other examples?
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