Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N5)

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Madge
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Madge » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:40 am UTC

Confirm I wasn't targeted by a cop, and wanted to catch Vicarin in a lie, hence waiting to claim. But he had an answer so no dice!

I sent Vicarin the terangreal because I figured he was townie after that claim and thought it might eventually activate to allow a vig shot or something. (If he failed my test overnight I could rake him over coals and he'd be voted off before he could cause trouble). It looks like it is just used for moody's lyncher mechanic though so......

There is no longer any particular benefit to more people targeting me, so I am not begging for attention anymore. That said, if you want to target me, feel free, nothing bad's going to happen to you, just nothing good will happen either.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:43 am UTC

I was waiting for that. Ok. I’ll claim.

You claimed my role. And I will now happily trade my life for yours. We still have time for a 1-1 trade, if you lynch me first.

Vote: Vicarin


Vicarin knew moody was town. Already pointed out by me here. And I think I’ll quote it so that Madge doesn’t have to look it up.
bessie wrote:
Vicarin wrote: I think he's mildly scummy for the switch onto moody as well (who's looking more like an easy lynch target to push than scum given how he was fine at flying under the radar in Meta).
What do mean by moody is an easier lynch target to push than scum?


I already knew Vicarin was scum after his cop claim. See the last line of this post. But I didn’t know he was mafia until after moody’s flip. I figured he was an indie lyncher type role with a target, and I was his target.

I left a few clues if I need to point them out.

So Vicarin, why did you choose White?

LaserGuy wrote:Have reason to believe that claim is probably true.
No, you don’t.

Ninja'd by Madge.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:45 am UTC

And before Sabrar asks, because I was already sure about Vicarin. I was looking for his partner.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:27 am UTC

bessie wrote:And before Sabrar asks, because I was already sure about Vicarin. I was looking for his partner.
What does this relate to? The person you checked last night? Why not claim your N1 result?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:35 am UTC

Unvote

Hmm... I was roleblocked last night so given Vic was alive I was expecting him to have a result. This is not so clear.

@bessie, can you claim flavor? I'm assuming you targeted Boom?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:49 am UTC

bessie wrote:I already knew Vicarin was scum after his cop claim. See the last line of this post. But I didn’t know he was mafia until after moody’s flip. I figured he was an indie lyncher type role with a target, and I was his target.
I don't get it. Why couldn't Vicarin still be a lyncher for you? It would still make sense for his claim. You say you didn't know he was actual mafia until D2? But the only way you could know that is if you checked him N1 and you get Mafia/not-Mafia as a result. But you couldn't have checked him because you state you were looking for his partner. This just doesn't add up.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:48 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:What does this relate to? The person you checked last night? Why not claim your N1 result?
Interesting. I guess it is entirely within your meta for you to assume that it is you.

LaserGuy wrote:Hmm... I was roleblocked last night so given Vic was alive I was expecting him to have a result. This is not so clear.
Should my feelings be hurt that you automatically assumed Vicarin would be telling the truth, and not that he was alive because he was mafia? :(

BoomFrog told Vicarin to target Madge to clear himself, and possibly provide town with a bonus (I assume BoomFrog thought Madge had an inventor role). Why not, this was actually a good idea. Town!Vicarin would be clear. The scummiest player in the game had a chance to clear himself, and remove the distraction from town of trying to sort him so we could move on to someone else. He passed. I wonder why. [/sarcasm I don't really wonder why]

LaserGuy wrote:@bessie, can you claim flavor?
I like to role play.

I would like Vicarin to answer my question.

LaserGuy wrote:I'm assuming you targeted Boom?
Hmm, Sabrar’s assuming I targeted him.

Sabrar wrote:I don't get it. Why couldn't Vicarin still be a lyncher for you? It would still make sense for his claim. You say you didn't know he was actual mafia until D2? But the only way you could know that is if you checked him N1 and you get Mafia/not-Mafia as a result. But you couldn't have checked him because you state you were looking for his partner. This just doesn't add up.
Vicarin’s post reads like he knew moody wasn’t scum (unfortunately he uses scum indeterminately as do most people). If Vicarin is mafia, he can be sure that moody wasn’t on his team. If Vicarin is indie, he can’t be sure moody wasn’t scum. So Vicarin must be mafia.

(this is why I try to use scum as generic non-town, and mafia for mafia)

So Sabrar, if you’re about to be lynched and you have to false claim, what role would you choose?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Madge » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:07 am UTC

@bessie, claim your cop target and stop farting around. you are under major suspicion and we want to try and vote out the scummier cop first

(ideally we should vote someone other than vic/bessie tonight and get another cop result and then vote vic/bessie out in order, but a bird in the hand, the fake cop probably has a power)

setup spec: do people think that we could have more than one roleblocker? does it make sense for town and scum to each have one? how would a hypothetical joat or odd/even roleblocker figure into this?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:08 am UTC

@bessie: can you clarify exactly what you meant by your question? Because the only question you said to me looks like it's trying to get me to break a rule.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:17 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:@bessie: can you clarify exactly what you meant by your question? Because the only question you said to me looks like it's trying to get me to break a rule.

You are correct. We can't claim what we submitted, only what we are. I withdraw the question.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:19 am UTC

Madge wrote:@bessie, claim your cop target and stop farting around. you are under major suspicion and we want to try and vote out the scummier cop first

Cop result aside, what's your read of me?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:10 am UTC

Madge wrote:does it make sense for town and scum to each have one?


Since the randomization of alignments occured after the assignment of powers, this would require a setup that would allow scum to control two roleblocks. It's not impossible, but I wouldn't bet on that having been the setup.

We haven't mentioned the lack of a night kill. Is this by design (cult mechanism) or did we get lucky with role-blockers, doctors, commuters, and who knows what?

bessie's certainty about Vicarin is unusual for her, which has me tending to believe her. Not enough to start a snowball this early that can't be turned around, though.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:26 am UTC

bessie wrote:Should my feelings be hurt that you automatically assumed Vicarin would be telling the truth, and not that he was alive because he was mafia? :(


I generally believe claims unless I have a compelling reason not to. I'm not sure I've ever actually seen a situation with a strong fake claim on D1. Have to think about that, but it's fairly uncommon to my recollection. I think there's two people in this game that I might have expected to see this coming from, and Vic is not in that pair.

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:@bessie, can you claim flavor?


I like to role play.


Okay, I'll let this go for now.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:40 am UTC

mpolo wrote:
Madge wrote:does it make sense for town and scum to each have one?


Since the randomization of alignments occured after the assignment of powers, this would require a setup that would allow scum to control two roleblocks. It's not impossible, but I wouldn't bet on that having been the setup.


I don't think this is quite right. Ajahs were assigned before alignment, but it doesn't specifically say in the rules that powers were randomized, only that Ajah is correlated with powers.

mpolo wrote:We haven't mentioned the lack of a night kill. Is this by design (cult mechanism) or did we get lucky with role-blockers, doctors, commuters, and who knows what?


I think there's only two plausible scenarios:
1) Vicarin is Town, scum tried to shoot him and but he was protected.
2) Vicarin is scum, scum deliberately withheld to fake scenario 1.

The third scenario involves Vic being roleblocked and scum hunting for a potential doctor, or scum faking the same and the kill being blocked accidentally, but Vic is claiming a result, so this scenario cannot occur. I don't think that scum would leave a claimed cop on the table, so it has to be one or the other.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:40 am UTC

Yeah this is messy. Gut says lynch Bessie if she's town lynch Vic.

Bessie play today seems very different from hallowed where we had conflicting results. The fact she's not.claimed her result is odd and could be playing for time.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:48 am UTC

bessie wrote:I guess it is entirely within your meta for you to assume that it is you.
bessie wrote:Hmm, Sabrar’s assuming I targeted him.
Nope, you're putting words into my mouth. Why would I think that you copped me if you were looking for Vicarin's partner? Also you know very well that I always expect to be NK-d and not copped.

bessie wrote:Vicarin’s post reads like he knew moody wasn’t scum (unfortunately he uses scum indeterminately as do most people).
I'm not seeing how you infer this from Vicarin's first D2 post.

bessie wrote:So Sabrar, if you’re about to be lynched and you have to false claim, what role would you choose?
Depends on the situation. If I'm looking for short-term survival then Cop or Doc. If I want something that has a chance of not getting lynched the next day then probably Watcher.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:07 am UTC

Madge wrote:do people think that we could have more than one roleblocker? does it make sense for town and scum to each have one?
Jailer for town, RB for scum is quite standard.

mpolo wrote:We haven't mentioned the lack of a night kill. Is this by design (cult mechanism) or did we get lucky with role-blockers, doctors, commuters, and who knows what?
We had this discussion in WoT2, look at bessie's posts here and here.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:18 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
mpolo wrote:We haven't mentioned the lack of a night kill. Is this by design (cult mechanism) or did we get lucky with role-blockers, doctors, commuters, and who knows what?
We had this discussion in WoT2, look at bessie's posts here and here.


I'm absolutely not asking for claims. A discussion might be interesting because of what someone lets slip. But maybe too dangerous.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:07 am UTC

I find it interesting that bessie managed to slip up there with her counterclaim, seeing as she said her role was what I gave, despite me not sharing the entirety of my role D1. I said I was prideful for my secondary wincon, but it's actually reflected in the disadvantage that I have, where I'm a macho cop on the nights where I cop someone, due to being too prideful to accept help from other Aes Sedai while showing off my reasoning skills, even if it leads to my death. I felt that if I said this yesterday I'd just be toast immediately, but if this information makes sure we lynch the correct person first, so be it. And maybe scum won't believe me :wink:

Seems like bessie wasn't careful enough and skated over the part of moody's flip which showed he was somewhat weaker than a normal tracker.

@LaserGuy: hopefully this does help narrow down the possibilities of what happened. It's looking most likely that either the mafia who went for the kill got roleblocked. Having them go for someone else entirely and then manage to get blocked by a doctor seems possible, but a bit unlikely.

@Madge: I'm not really sure what we'd get out of that plan, who would you want us to target in particular?

@bessie: feel like adjusting your claim at all? Or claiming your N1 result, for laughs?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Madge » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:04 pm UTC

Once we know which of you or bessie is trustworthy, the other dies unless we have a doctor. So we keep you one more night - wait scum has a role locker, I'm pretty certain. Nevermind. We don't get anything. Disregard the idea, sorry.

If LaserGuy was blocked last night there are at least two rpleblocking powers (could be jailer jaot etc). I thought my evidence of a second one might question lgs claim but I agree two in the game aren't too unbalanced given the circumstances.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Madge » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:05 pm UTC

Why did scum not block our "real" cop? Scared of watchers?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:11 pm UTC

I have a very good reason to believe Vicarin is scum.
[b]Vote: VicaVicarin
I can claim if wanted.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:12 pm UTC

Let me rewrite that post:
I have a very good reason the believe Vicarin is Mafia.
Vote: Vicarin
I can explain and claim if wanted.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby heuristically_alone » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:19 pm UTC

Nothing of interest to report from n1. So suspicious of bessie right now. Feels like she know she is screwed and is trying to take vicarin down with her.

Madge wrote:Why did scum not block our "real" cop? Scared of watchers?

We don't know that mafia has the roleblocker

@mark Now is probably the time claim information of interest involving bessie or vicarin.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:04 pm UTC

My power is to watch someone, and see everyone who targets them. I used this power on Vicarin. The only person who target him was Madge, who was passing on the ter'angreal. Therefore, no NK attempt was made on Vicarin. Considering he claimed cop D1, this heavily implies he is scum.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:04 pm UTC

EBWOP not implies, suggests

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:31 pm UTC

You know that a watcher watching a cop is pretty common, and would explain why mafia went elsewhere, right? I already said that they can't have made an attempt on me because I'm macho (can't be protected while copping). So I'm not seeing what information your claim added.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:52 pm UTC

My claim actually did add info. Based on it, either you or Madge must be scum. There are three possibilities I see:
1. Madge was watching you and giving you the ter'angreal.
2. Madge was giving you the ter'angreal, and no one was NKing you or watching you.
3. Someone watched you and was able to hide from my power.

If it's 1, Madge is scum. If it's 2, you're scum. If it is 3, than my power contributed nothing.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:00 pm UTC

If you really see no other possibilities, then clearly scum should never kill a cop claim, because they'll just get lynched the next day :roll:

Madge gave me the ter'angreal, and you watched me, seeing that. Either scum got roleblocked or they targeted someone else and their target got protected. Not seeing how you're justifying chucking out other scenarios.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:04 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:You know that a watcher watching a cop is pretty common,

Based on this, I'll one more scenario:
4. They got roleblocked. I very much doubt they would totally avoid using any powers on a cop claim.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:26 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I generally believe claims unless I have a compelling reason not to. I'm not sure I've ever actually seen a situation with a strong fake claim on D1. Have to think about that, but it's fairly uncommon to my recollection. I think there's two people in this game that I might have expected to see this coming from, and Vic is not in that pair.
Vicarin had to claim at the end of D1 to avoid the lynch. You have theorized that mafia has day chat, so you need to consider that Vicarin’s partner is coaching him. Think about the two players that you might expect to see try this gambit. Then discard BoomFrog.

LaserGuy wrote:I think there's only two plausible scenarios:
1) Vicarin is Town, scum tried to shoot him and but he was protected.
2) Vicarin is scum, scum deliberately withheld to fake scenario 1.

The third scenario involves Vic being roleblocked and scum hunting for a potential doctor, or scum faking the same and the kill being blocked accidentally, but Vic is claiming a result, so this scenario cannot occur. I don't think that scum would leave a claimed cop on the table, so it has to be one or the other.]
Really? You’re not being very creative. I can think of at least a half a dozen reasons that there was no kill last night. Oh, but I see Sabrar is way ahead of me.

wam wrote:Bessie play today seems very different from hallowed where we had conflicting results. The fact she's not.claimed her result is odd and could be playing for time.
My target is town. There was no need to get it out immediately, and putting it off resulted in some interesting content.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Vicarin’s post reads like he knew moody wasn’t scum (unfortunately he uses scum indeterminately as do most people).
I'm not seeing how you infer this from Vicarin's first D2 post.
Your missteps this game are alarming. It’s like you aren’t even trying to follow my posts. Read again. I am referring to Vicarin’s D1 slip where he says moody is an easier target to push than scum, see here, and his rather confusing and unconvincing explanation here.


Vicarin wrote:I find it interesting that bessie managed to slip up there with her counterclaim, seeing as she said her role was what I gave, despite me not sharing the entirety of my role D1. I said I was prideful for my secondary wincon, but it's actually reflected in the disadvantage that I have, where I'm a macho cop on the nights where I cop someone, due to being too prideful to accept help from other Aes Sedai while showing off my reasoning skills, even if it leads to my death.
Everyone read this carefully. How does Vicarin know that I should have known we have a macho cop?

I’m an arrogant, dominant, overconfident, aggressive jerk that has been role playing macho cop since page 1.

Vicarin wrote:Seems like bessie wasn't careful enough and skated over the part of moody's flip which showed he was somewhat weaker than a normal tracker.
Not at all. Weak town power roles and mafia day chat fit in with my 8-2-1 setup spec.

And you knowing my role also fits in with my 8-2-1 setup spec.

heuristically_alone wrote:So suspicious of bessie right now. Feels like she know she is screwed and is trying to take vicarin down with her.
You’re absolutely correct. I didn’t even suspect Vicarin until D2 when he claimed a cop result on me.[/sarcasm] So heury, who’s my partner? [/double sarcasm] FoS heuristically_alone.

I find it interesting that no one protected Vicarin.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby heuristically_alone » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:34 pm UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:My power is to watch someone, and see everyone who targets them. I used this power on Vicarin. The only person who target him was Madge, who was passing on the ter'angreal. Therefore, no NK attempt was made on Vicarin. Considering he claimed cop D1, this heavily implies he is scum.

If Bessie is scum, they would want Vicarin as a mislynch. Ir granted, anyone that is scum would want us to think vicarin is scum.

Bessie, I'll work on possible scum partners for you. Are you really omgus-ing that fos on me? :lol:
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:01 pm UTC

I'm on a day trip so won't be able to post much in the afternoon.

It would be absolutely halarious if both of them were town cops. I find it very likely that Bessie and Vic did both pick white Ajah. More likely though is that scum were given full safe claims. Has JimBob as a mod typically given any kind of safeclaim? Even if he didn't before it's very possible he did now.

bessie wrote:I find it interesting that no one protected Vicarin.

It's interesting, but it's not alignment indicative for Vicarin. The only marginally helpful conclusion I can draw from it is if Vic is mafia then his partner isn't a doctor.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby heuristically_alone » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:21 pm UTC

Pretty sure that Jimbob usually gives safe claims, and if that's the case then I think Bessie and Vicarin both would be town.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:30 pm UTC

What are safe claims?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:17 pm UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:What are safe claims?


A town role provided to scum that they can claim if needed. And I have had too much rum for intelligent comment on the rest!
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:31 pm UTC

I don't think both Bessie and Vicarin are mafia. Too much fighting too early. If there are safe claims though, I could see them both being town. Any other way, one is scum. The one way that couldn't happen is if there are repeat town roles, which would be hard to balance.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D1)

Postby dimochka » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:48 pm UTC

Votals:

bessie - 1 (Vicarin)
Vicarin - 2 (bessie, Mark_Cangila)

Not Voting: heuristically_alone, Sabrar, BoomFrog, wam, Madge, LaserGuy, mpolo

10 alive, 6 to lynch. Deadline will be Wednesday evening next week. Exact time TBC, but likely similar to this past week's.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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LaserGuy
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Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:52 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:Pretty sure that Jimbob usually gives safe claims, and if that's the case then I think Bessie and Vicarin both would be town.


I don't see how scum having safe claims would imply both are Town. Note also that Vicarin is claiming a mafia result on bessie, which makes it much more difficult for both to be Town.

Also, safe claims do not normally duplicate an existing role as that kind of defeats the point.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:59 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I think there's only two plausible scenarios:
1) Vicarin is Town, scum tried to shoot him and but he was protected.
2) Vicarin is scum, scum deliberately withheld to fake scenario 1.

The third scenario involves Vic being roleblocked and scum hunting for a potential doctor, or scum faking the same and the kill being blocked accidentally, but Vic is claiming a result, so this scenario cannot occur. I don't think that scum would leave a claimed cop on the table, so it has to be one or the other.]


Really? You’re not being very creative. I can think of at least a half a dozen reasons that there was no kill last night. Oh, but I see Sabrar is way ahead of me.


My assumption here is that mafia would not intentionally allow a claimed Town cop to get any results.


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